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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reminder: The PB Yorkshire gathering – Flying Duck Ilkley M
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reminder: The PB Yorkshire gathering – Flying Duck Ilkley Monday 6.30pm
Thanks to all those who’ve contacted me about the Ilkley event on Monday. This’ll be held in the Flying Duck pub from about 6.30pm. We’ll probably be upstairs.
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Will try perusing the markets a second time.
Talking about Yorks or Wales or Cornwall or Scotland breaking away, I wonder which towns would be sensibly twinned with which. I think I'd like to see Glasgow (and Truro ?) twinned with Bedford. Looks are deceiving: we're tough down here.
Would there be enough Scottish towns to go around?
Toby Helm @tobyhelm 37s
Lab lead at six pts in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 35 n/c, Con 29 (-2), Ukip 18 (+1), Lib Dems 7 (n/c), Green 5 (n/c).
http://old.bfi.org.uk/inview/title/7030
and good god he uses the N word, 19 mins in
"Crowds start gathering outside the pub in advance of Monday's PB gathering"
Betting PostF1: Here's my pre-race piece:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/uk-pre-race.html
Had lots of betting ideas but all the odds were a bit dodgy. Went for Hulkenberg to be winner without Hamilton/Rosberg at 8 (each way). Surprisingly hard to find something I liked, given how topsy-turvy the grid is.
The grid's very nicely poised.
Edited extra bit: bloody hell, I knew I forgot something. Mr. Putney, I neglected to mention your cunning Button bet. My apologies.
Andrew Strauss has apologised after branding Kevin Pietersen an “absolute c***” in an embarrassing TV gaffe on Saturday.
Sky TV have been forced to apologise to viewers in Australia after former England cricket captain Strauss was heard making the comment on a live mic, when he apparently thought he was off-air.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/cricket/andrew-strauss-calls-kevin-pietersen-3815769
Plus, us Tories are Unionists, consistent Tory leads before the North Britain referendum is bad for the Union, so we Tories are taking one for the Union.
Plus, we're ahead with Lord A, and only 1 point behind with Populus and YouGov, and 2 points behind with the ComRes phone poll, all showing the Lab lead collapsing.
This is essentially an MOE outlier.
However, for your bet, I think it'd take a DNF or some serious screw-up to stop Button getting points.
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/24231/9372901/pastor-maldonado-sent-to-back-of-british-gp-grid-after-failing-to-provide-fuel-sample
It's almost as if a man whose name means 'ill-favoured one' and whose number is 13 has bad luck...
I can't decide.
And the bowler in question has never been spoken of in connection with and England place, and is only irregularly in the Essex CC team.
Ed is crap is PM by an outlier landslide amount.
But 100% record of Ed is crap is PM is still intact 10 Months and 2 days to go
Too Far Or Too Fast like Ed Balls driving
So the vote/seats switch bet comes in.
You're the chap who thinks one point leads less than a year before a general election is a good thing for oppositions.
However I do still think Lab are favorites to be biggest party
Looking forward to meeting you on Monday.
Dont get many Sheffield Tories maybe you are an outlier?
Calling Kevin Pietersen a c*** on the other hand just seems like a difference of opinion.
Giant-Shimano rider Marcel Kittel comes through to take the win in Harrogate as home favourite Mark Cavendish suffers injury after falling during sprint finish"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/tour-de-france/10948659/Mark-Cavendish-crashes-in-Yorkshire-Tour-de-France-finish-as-Marcel-Kittel-wins-opening-stage.html
It is always great to meet a Sheffield chap.
That said, when I do meet you, the first thing I'll say to you is "We're alllllllllllriiight" as I know Labour supporting Sheffield people love being reminded of the Labour rally of 1992 held in Sheffield.
That's an enormous and critical divergence and explains the Conservative shares ranging between 29% and 35% which is a huge variation. There are those on here who seem to assert with confidence where the state of public opinion currently resides.
I'm not one of them - Thursday night's local by-elections were trendless with good and bad results for all the parties. The only prediction I have consistently made for next year's General Election is that East Ham will be a Labour hold - beyond that, I've no clue.
The campaign will be critical and we may see (as we did last time) huge volatility within the election. The Smithson of polls to which we will be subjected will as likely muddy the waters as clear them.
My own take is that Labour is probably 2/3% ahead, but with margin of error/sampling variations and a general polling trend not favouring Labour and somewhat favouring the Tories we’re going to be seeing a volatile period in the polling for a while, as the Tories and Lab alternate the lead, until we see a new trend emerging, but for the time being, I wouldn’t advise the Blues or Reds to get over-excited or despondent by any one poll.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/19/the-second-lord-ashcroft-poll-has-labour-six-ahead/
Undiplomatic lingo; RT @thetimes “No 10 and the Foreign Office think Miliband is a f****** c*** and a copper-bottomed s***", a govt source.
which I managed to get into a thread header
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/29/syria-how-it-will-impact-domestic-politics/
The poll put Labour 6 points ahead of the Conservatives with just 10 months to go until the next general election. Labour is on 35% (up 2 points on a fortnight ago), while the Tories are on 29% (-2), Ukip 18% (+1), the Lib Dems 7% (n/c) and the Greens 5% (n/c).
David Cameron's personal rating has dropped since the last poll by 5 points to -15% (those who approve of his performance, against those who disapprove) while that of Labour leader Ed Miliband is unchanged on -26%.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jul/05/large-minority-favour-higher-tax-nhs?CMP=twt_fd
From where I sit, the Coalition has one more winter to get through with all its accompanying problems and one more Budget with all its accompanying opportunities.
I also think UNS will be even more unreliable than usual.
See you all Monday anyone know what kind of turnout is expected?
I think the 2015 budget will be the most pivotal (and political) budget since the 1992 one, now George Osborne is the architect of two the biggest shifts in polling in the last decade, the 2012 Budget and his 2007 conference special on IHT.
It's been like this for ages. Swingback always happens, crossover, Osborne's bubble will save them, people will realise Ed is "crap" and Dave always "smashes it out the park". Etc etc.
Scrap that first bit. They're just desperate.
Hopefully we'll get a dirty dozen.
As to whether Labour would restore my finances, I don't know. I do know that the coming interest rate hikes (which will be much sharper than they need to be thanks to the ludicrous policies of QE and the politicisation of the interest rate mechanism by Osborne and Carney effectively undoing all Brown did (and the Tories supported) in 1997) will not help.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/iraqonthebrink/iraq-crisis-sos-to-friends-goodwill-won-india-this-battle/article1-1237284.aspx
So ISIS are our enemy, but apparently the USA, KSA, and Qatar still have enough pull within ISIS to get them to free the civilians they want free.
You have mail via "Vanilla"
Thank you.
The last England Cricket Captain who tried to become a Tory MP failed.
Which England captain was that?
Ted Dexter. He stood for Cardiff South in 1964
Nick Sutton @suttonnick · 18m
Independent on Sunday - "Exclusive: Leon Brittan questioned by police over rape allegation" #tomorrowspaperstoday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Brzr1vvIIAEYPmM.jpg:large
Edit: The Sunday Telegraph will also, you know.
Nick Sutton @suttonnick · 6m
Sunday Telegraph front page - "Parliament child sex scandal: 114 lost files"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BrzuqDsCcAEpTNU.jpg:large
I wouldn't like to have any money on the GE if more information starts to come to light, where it starts, goes and ends up, who knows. Papers already joining various dots from historic known individuals, PIE, etc etc etc.
Indy - Exclusive: Leon Brittan questioned by police over rape allegation"
Telegraph - Parliament child sex scandal: 114 lost files"
United and Cecil Club ups donations to Tory party constituencies, fuelling debate about lack of transparency.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/05/tory-donors-united-and-cecil-club-2015-war-chest?CMP=twt_gu
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 29s
Mail on Sunday front page - "Labour Lord's 'sex attacks on 12 children'"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Brzxp9nIAAEgBvp.jpg
Start with some reviews, but that wont clearly be enough for the quarters that are already pushing a full inquiry, and he will end up being bounced into that and by that time the terms of reference will mean it s##t will be flying everywhere and it will be totally out of his control*.
* Not saying it should be, but we know that certain politicians were extremely good at getting the terms of references they wanted.
This could turn politics on its head
But wider than that, brief mention here or there and that was it. I would think that a lot of the population are probably still pretty unaware that this major political figure is alleged to be up there with Saville and co in terms of nature, severity and number of abuse claims.
Just kidding, I have no view. Don't know anything about it
I think the paedophilia thing is going to be massive though.
Look at all the establishment names that have been convicted already, and look at who they are linked with.. not just two bob councillors, but some of the biggest political names of the 70s and 80s, and the Royal family!
edit: or ten
Nobody is going to hold him responsible for things that happened 30 years ago.
I do think this story could be massive though.
In the past few years we've had:
Expense's scandal, a banking crisis, the hacking crisis, various police scandals, a celebrity pedophile scandal...
Certainly seem's like there's been some some sort of "cleaning of the stable's" going on, but I wonder whether the biggest scandal has been saved for last...
With VIPs if the first case is covered up (apart from rumours) then when the second case comes along they can link up with the first etc. So over time you get a ring developing that wouldn't be possible otherwise.
Also in @Sunday_Post tomorrow the latest #indyref poll. It's got some unexpected findings...
Could help him if he plays it right.
I had a classic flaky "promise" today: "I really don't like Labour. But after something Maggie did in the 1970s I swore I'd never vote Tory again, though I can't now remember what it was. So I voted LibDem for 30 years but in government they're rubbish. UKIP and Greens are nuts. I'm desperate, so I suppose I'll have to vote for you. Hang on! Will there be a Monster Raving Loony candidate?"
Should we knock him up on polling day? Hmm.
Oh, not that kind of knock up.
Get right out of town?!!
I was briefly a member at one point.
I'll join Dan Hodges along the mall if UKIP take Broxtowe though.
http://www.nottinghampost.com/Nigel-Farage-8217-s-UKIP-target-Broxtowe-seat/story-21147345-detail/story.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/local-elections-2014-ukip-to-target-at-least-20-parliamentary-seats-at-next-years-general-elections-9432674.html
Jason Cowan @jason_manc 2m
How many Dutchmen does it take to score a goal?