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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: July 3rd 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: July 3rd 2014
Wivenhoe Quay on Colchester (Lab defence)
Last election to council (2014): Liberal Democrat 25, Conservative 23, Labour 8, Independent 3 (No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 5)
Last election in ward (2011): Labour 1,279 (57%), Conservative 573 (26%), Greens 217 (10%), Liberal Democrats 172 (8%)
Candidates duly nominated:
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And don't apologise, you do a brilliant job with these round ups.
1) The formatting can definatelly be improved.
2) Sean F's Slot Rocked! - Honestly, it was really good (2b, timing much better as well)
Oh bless your little cotton socks, I never knew you cared. ;-)
"Tax officials wrongly claimed office had brought in £1.9bn more when correct figure was £100m, says National Audit Office"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/03/tax-officials-wrongly-claimed-brining-in-billions
Yes, some interesting contests today and we'll see what we'll see. I look forward to somebody helping Brandon Lewis find £2 billion of surplus property assets and explaining to him they can only be sold once not every year.
I was delivering in St James this morning. I think it'll be tight between LD/Tories. A similar ward was won by the Lib Dems in the county elections last year, and it's the same candidate, so there's something of an incumbency factor. Labour don't seem to have been very active.
Welcome back, and congratulations.
I saw a pick of Margaret Hodge.
And then I thought-
Does anyone else remember her live in committee on sky news addressing that top bbc bod (the one with the beard and not very nice face) as Harry Cole??? I thought that was some fairly weird shit going on there. Much apologies to all politicos if this has not been interneted before.
My mirth might be uncalled for, but I am a bit of a Laffer, and I couldn't help myself. ;-)
Conservative ?
thanks @smarmeron
We are going to have to compile a list of media outlets which are dangerous for you to visit. First the BBC and now The Guardian.
No money has gorn missin', not even £1.9 billion.
The anomaly picked up by the NAO is that the baseline set in 2010, against which HMRC have measured their subsequent above target performance, was inaccurate.
Say you, or your mentor, decided that you were for the high jump. And that either or both of you had ambition to beat the world record of 2.45 metres.
If you then jumped over a bar set at 46 centimeters and measured ground level at -2 metres you could make a claim, using HMRC's methods, to be the new world record holder.
I find it surprising that it is a Tory who has to explain to a Leftie how to manipulate the target system. Have you never worked in Labour's NHS?
You mean like Osborne crowing over tax receipts that were in fact less?
I see your point now, thanks Limp Pole.
The tax receipts were accurately measured.
It was the baseline for the target that was false!
When corrected HMRC's achievement remained over target but by a smaller margin.
In other words, their performance was good rather than, as claimed, excellent.
I can assure you that St. George knows the difference between merely good and truly excellent performance.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour now just one point ahead: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%
Since you are such a fan of the NHS, watch Andy Burnham being eviscerated by Dan Poulter in the same way Cam filleted Ed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28145556
Ed is crap is PM Ed is crap is PM in every June/July poll 10 months and 3 days to go
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour now just one point ahead: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%
Plan for competitive bids drawn up, ruling out proposals that expired franchises be returned automatically to the public sector
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/03/rail-network-franchises-labour-plan
Oh dear not sure if this is manoeuvres or just attempting and failing to be helpful.
4.8
4.4
3.0
1.8 = Euros
2.0 = Euros
4.0
5.0
4.0
4.2
4.2
2.5 = This week (one poll to come)
After a brief dip at the time of the Budget, the lead was steady between 4% and 5% before dipping again at the time of the Euros down to 2%. It then recovered to just above 4% until this week - when it is back down to 2.5% (with one poll to come).
Burnham needs a little more time before he could win, but he probably still has decent prospects.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak · 3m
And what could we do on the 50th anniversary of the Watershed?... ideas please for the end of the show #newsnight...
Can you tell me who is Andy Burnham's target?
More time will help, he seems to be improving since the leadership election. I would have voted for him if I could have, except for the problem you mention.
I find that astonishing, and something I find very hard to reconcile.
I am not sure you can use local elections as a true guide. Lower turnout, and local factors can often sway the results in unexpected directions.
Sherlock Holmes – or, at least, Benedict Cumberbatch – has been dispatched to unravel the mystery that is North Korea
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/10944302/Sherlock-Holmes-sent-to-encourage-change-in-North-Korea.html
This PC is going on 13 yrs old. True, I did have to replace the fan in the power supply, and I upgraded the (working) hard disc from 40 gigs to 120 gigs, but it's still usuable for most things. Transtec. German. You get what you pay for it seems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUl6PooveJE
First 3 polls of July have them plummeting to 37%.
UKIP collapse seems to be seeing Tories up from their 3 month average of 33/33/33 to 34.33% in the first 3 polls of July.
PB Tories are very excitable aren't they
Look out for premature crossejaculationover.
Does not satisfy anyone
Hopeless as A Shadow. (apart from the eye shadow)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2679257/Offering-public-referendum-Europe-silly-says-Ed-Balls-Labours-biggest-union-backer-demands-vote.html
The Tories need to take vote share from Labour not UKIP to be biggest party and need Labour at less than 30% to have a chance of governing alone. I dont see that happening do you?
I'm still chuckling. Mysteriously, that one reminds me of the two Ronnies "fork handle" skit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaGpaj2nHIo
I mean, Ed's reduced to complete loons like Oborne and Hitchens standing up for him. Somethings wrong somewhere.
We'll see what happens, but it looks like it's Game On for #TeamBlue to me
Lab 35%
Con 32%
UKIP 14%
LD 8%
Green 5%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2
www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0C59pI_ypQ
(when I say, a beard, I mean I haven't shaved since last Friday)
"We'd better get some talking done here, serious talking".
Next year, The Tories win the popular vote, but Ed gets a majority.
What are the implications if a plurality in England voted Tory?
Surely one of life's mysteries is how they do that without cracking up.
Maybe we could have a PB beard growing month.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TOgB3Smvro
The Conservatives scream about unfair voting, and demand PR?
(note, this is definitely not a betting post)
I mean, why pick on Europe and immigration particularly? It's not as though Labour's position on any other question is clear.
And here is me thinking tomorrow the shares in PB tissues would rocket.....bah!
Tory UKIP wars.
You cost us the election. Ha ha what lib dem mps!
"the rules is the rules, and the rules is fptp."
F8ck People! Trust Politicians, or is that something else?
I'll fetch me coat.
On the plus side? it gives future historians something to do?
May I commend "Decembeard"...
Plagarism! ToryJim has the copyright.
Safe Tory seat for London (deputy) Mayor - a precedent? MT @RicHolden: Kit Malthouse selected for North West Hampshire this evening
I'd guess some Tories will be very noisy in outrage, but with their leadership being torn apart for losing and that most of them would have rejected any attempt to alter the electoral system which resulted in such an outcome, will prevent any consistent reaction. Suddenly the big issue will not be Europe, but an English Parliament (or at least some kind of actual answer to the West Lothian Question). Someone will suggest perhaps the question of electoral reform could come up again, but Labour will be less keen now.
Labour will not react at all - they scraped a win, who cares if they didn't win most votes or have the largest proportion of seats in England, once people see what is good for them that will change eventually, they will assume. Parts of the party will grumble about losing support in England, but with only a slim majority, they won't risk messing with the base that won them that slim majority, and any suggestions to increase English support will be marginal - focusing on the cities and north worked, if only just, no point in risking that for the unknown.
If they haven't already (I do not know), UKIP will make championing a FederalUK their key domestic issue. Even if other parties have already raised it, they will be more successful at it given their rising strength in England.
The Greens may say something, but no-one will notice.
In general, a lot of political wonks will get heated in the first few months, but this just rallies the Labour party behind a PM who would otherwise have been more at the mercy of his backbenchers, as they do not want to risk toppling their own government so soon. There will be a commission or something set up to present some recommendations, which will take 2 years and propose something absurd, ensuring the pro-change side are split, and by that time people will have gotten used to the situation.
Caliph-ers