politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m not convinced that the Coulson conviction will have more than a short-term negative impact on Cameron
PMQs, as you’d expect, was dominated by yesterday’s news from the Old Bailey that former Number 10 Communications Director had been convicted in the hacking case.
Read the full story here
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I cant work out if Coulson was guilty how was Rebekah Brookes cleared?
Secondly Coulson is likely to get 6-12 months I would think.
This case has cost £35 million plus all the millions on police time, to send someone to jail for 6 months. Good value?
Needless to say it is not the 'most read', which is "Woman, 90, dragged off Rochdale street and raped"
I cannot understand how this will go down as a serious negative with voters - there are only a few instances of genuine victims. I mean Abi Titmuss was on the telly last night talking about her 'victimhood' and this is woman who released an adult film a la paris hilton to make her more famous.
Is this really an iraq war moment with soldiers dying and millions of foreigners dying in an ill advised war, which did effect voting patterns.
I cant imagine many normal people are bothered about it at all
Its like the outrage at UKIP councillors saying "poof" from people who supported the Iraq war, no sense of perspective
- Financial sector is 8% of US GDP and 9% of UK GDP, so not much in it.
- This one's fair, but ultimately it's been a policy decision to base our trade strategy on a closed trading bloc with the EU, which Cameron supports.
- US employment has increased by 5.4%, while UK employment has increased by 4.6%, and participation rates won't affect that calculation
- US recession started in Q3 2008, UK recession started in Q2 2008. The US did have a one quarter dip in Q1 2008, before recovering, but all-in-all, not much in it
- Immigration actually hurts you when you have slack in your labour market because you have to create jobs even faster.
About the same length of time as "baconbuttygate" at least?
They will find a way. The Guardian / BBC will try and drag this out for a few more days at least, unless Iraq goes totally nuclear. They clearly had loads and loads of stuff lined up ready to go against their arch enemy, although the fact only one man got found guilty (and not of all the charges), probably means quite a bit is on the cutting room floor now.
Are we getting a Panorama special next week by any chance?
They were still prattling on about Miller days and days after she resigned.
And I do seem to remember a couple of your comments when someone tried to out you.
The tactics used by the NotW and many other newspapers was illegal and caused not just embarrassment to a few celebrities, but also harm and hurt to many. There will be over 100 cases going to trial within the next year, plus all the civil cases (where the evidence of proof is less than a criminal court) which could lead to new cases being made against those recently declared Not Guilty. (Tommy Sheridan is already suing Coulson in Scotland)
What will happen now is that Labour will tie the Tories into the Murdoch Hacking Machine. Whichever way you look at it, this damages DC, slowly, surely, a lingering death from a thousand cuts.
I am looking forward to tomorrows Private Eye, should be interesting.
Well, not the decision itself, but Cameron's response to it...
Cameron's response will indeed be interesting, he is a shrewd judge of character that man
Iain Martin seems to think the Juncker deliberation is a very big deal. Make of that what you will.
The big thing that I don't understand about this whole 'Murdoch Press' influence thing is that the people reading the newspapers have paid for the privilege. There is no free online version so either the people who buy the papers have been subtly brainwashed or more likely they actually agree with what is written, and just happen to have an opinion different to that of the Guardian / BBC / Twitter, who in the main imply that you must have your head looked at if you have a right of centre viewpoint.
In fact the BBC etc have had a significant impact on the language used. If you think we shouldn't be part of the the EU you are a eurosceptic which has the implication that you are crazy. The same with climate change deniers. If you query the scientific proof, even if you think that climate change may be happening, you are met with an almost religious fervour against you which has framed the debate.
In fact New Labour were very good at this when they reframed spending taxpayers money as investment even if it was nothing of the sort.
It will be fascinating to see what happens.
Terrible backlash against Labour.
Reports in other media at the scene, saying bomb attack.
http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/163685-breaking-explosion-rocks-abuja-many-feared-dead.html
Not that lucky, England's lack of sporting success will have quite a few in a gloomier mood than usual, and gloomy people tend to assume the worst of any situation.
(counter factuals written to order, reasonable rates)
Agreed. I think Lotos often miss the silent tactic - can be quite effective.
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/matthew-dancona-david-cameron-goes-to-the-brink-over-ec-presidency-9561840.html
He seems to think Juncker is a big decision too.
Secondly is it really an Iraq war - will hundreds of thousands march against?
LATEST:Carole Middleton, mother of Duchess of Cambridge, had phone hacked by News of the World, BBC learns
Funny how they never seem very interested in the Mirror and reports of their activities.
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, I have been checking for tennis tips, but nothing jumped out at me.
Not sure I quite understand you there, Jack.
Do you mean that highly-paid lawyers who get their clients off, means that we have justice in this country?
Color me skeptical, as they say.
However, the Mercedes is the cheapest engine. It's miles better than the others, and nearly half the cost of the priciest: Renault.
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/06/25/the-onomatopoeia-of-f1-engines/
Al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate swears loyalty to Isis, opening way for jihadist group to control vast swathes of land on both sides of Iraq-Syria border"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/al-qaeda/10925602/Al-Qaeda-merges-with-Isis-at-Syria-Iraq-border-town.html
Mr. Antifrank, quite. It's like tempo in fencing. Or the approach of the Cunctator in the Second Punic War.
As for the wider impact... Rebecca was the story, not Coulson, and she's at home warming up the laptop and preparing Chapter One: Revenge is a Dish Best Served Cold and Chapter Two: Hell Hath No Fury.
What happened to the original antifrank?
The odd thing was, even after the Guardian issued a two sentence press release, the Beeb edited out the second half admitting responsibility. They just can't help themselves.
Maybe one day it'll be northern/central England.
Perhaps antifrank1 should be antifrank_at_work? :')
I suspect that's the bemusement in the rest of the EU - it looks as though Cameron is picking a fight just for the hell of it and pandering to domestic political consumption which all politicians have to do periodically.
What puzzles me is the absence of a credible alternative candidate - where is the young, dynamic centre-right reformer that we can all rally round and proclaim as the future of the newly reformed EU ? Er, yes, I don't know either.
This then is Cameron's problem - he doesn't like the main choice but doesn't seem to have anyone else or a figure whom he has canvassed among his so-called EU allies - it seems an odd way to fight a battle leaving him seemingly with two options - capitulation or the nuclear option of a referendum and again the Presidency of the Commission doesn't seem the issue on which to win over uncertain voters (much as AV wasn't).
Can't see anyone actually reading it on this Tube though :-o
The US recession spanned four quarters from Q3 2008 although, as you say, there was one quarter of -0.67% followed by another with growth of 0.50% before the four quarter span.
From peak to trough, GDP growth in the US fell by 4.26%.
The UK recession spanned five quarters from Q2 2008 with the sixth quarter having Brown's famous "growth of nought percent". In fact there was no growth in the sixth quarter but the -0.004% contraction did not qualify as recessionary under the one decimal point rule.
From peak to trough, GDP growth in the UK fell by 7.19%.
The UK only very narrowly missed a double dip recession with the three quarters between Q4 2011 and Q2 2012 all showing negative growth (-0.11%, -0.01%, -0.39%) but with the middle quarter not qualifying under the same one decimal point rule as above.
The difference in depth is clearly significant. The relative durations less so.
Right now, the papers are running at one race/culture incident per day for east London...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28014035
Whichever way they go (and I don't share your confidence that we'll ever find out), they will face two problems: credibility, especially since they've been all over the place so far, and the problem that actually being specific will alienate existing supporters.
Ed Miliband has made an absolute hash of strategic preparation, instead throwing off random and mutually contradictory policy mini-statements, which often get reversed. We saw an excellent example a few days ago, when Ed announced a policy on reducing benefits for 18-21 year olds which not only made little sense, but flatly contradicted what Rachel Reeves said last November.
Your faith in Ed's ability to put this all back into a coherent whole with just a few months to go is, I'm afraid, very unlikely to be rewarded.
http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Antoin-Akpom-murder-Teenager-convicted-fatal/story-21282791-detail/story.html
And this fatal arson in retaliation on the wrong house?:
http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Leicester-house-deaths-judge-told-killers/story-21288241-detail/story.html
The stabbing victim had no criminal record, but the killer (and intended target for revenge) had recently been released from custody after being convicted in relation to the 2011 London riots.
It sounds like a turf was between rival gangs, with collateral damage to civilians.
See http://bloom.bg/1lpQEti for an answer.
Yet more good news from St. George.
I'm off to see Mary Poppins.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100277653/cameron-isnt-to-blame-for-the-collapse-of-the-hacking-trial/
Banking system in the UK was a multiple of the US, banking assets are what matter, it's why our bailout was 800USD and the US Tarp just 700. Irrelevant stat.
Irrelevant, more a hobby horse there.
Adjusting for labour force participation the UK has far outperformed the US. Again random stat generator.
2Qs makes a difference.
Immigration inflates GDP.
"Saint George is somewhat of an exception among saints and legends, in that he is known and respected by Muslims, as well as venerated by Christians... "
How apt.
Or perhaps I misread.
*The judgment of Saunders J on Mr Coulson's application for discharge of the jury was plainly correct. His attack on the Prime Minister's comments was, however, inappropriate for a serving judge. The Prime Minister should not have commented until the jury had returned verdicts on all counts, but the comments that he did make posed no real threat to the administration of justice in the proceedings before the Central Criminal Court. Everything else was irrelevant.
*The media and politicians are engaged in a self-serving and hypocritical frenzy, at enormous cost to the taxpayer.
*Individual liberty and freedom of expression are under greater threat today than at any point since the Second World War, but few in either the media or politics seem to care.
I am not taking a phone with me. In the three months that I'm away, I am intending to go online only to print out plane tickets. I'm taking notebooks instead.
Your posts are odd, and somewhat creepy.
My attention was drawn to a court case (from the Mail Monday ) where a man was allegedly viciously attacked by a gang of young men in East London, seemingly for the crime of drinking in public.
And then on Tuesday the Standard ran a story the police are investigating a case where a gay couple were allegedly insulted and intimidated by another 'gang', again in east London.
I don;t want to be more specific but perhaps you'll get the drift from the above.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
Lessons perhaps learned from the Handsworth riots some years ago:
http://kenanmalik.wordpress.com/2012/06/07/what-is-wrong-with-multiculturalism-part-2/
Malik writes a very provoking critique of multiculturism.
Why not buy a "Vinum Regum, Rex Vinorum" estate when in Tokaj ?
Again my key point is a financial crisis is far dire than a recession, it's the banking system that matters.
uh-oh...
ED Miliband's policy chief has sensationally accused Labour frontbenchers of plotting against their leader.
John Cruddas suggested shadow cabinet trio Andy Burnham, Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper were positioning themselves to succeed their boss.