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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m not convinced that the Coulson conviction will have mor

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m not convinced that the Coulson conviction will have more than a short-term negative impact on Cameron

PMQs, as you’d expect, was dominated by yesterday’s news from the Old Bailey that former Number 10 Communications Director had been convicted in the hacking case.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    A couple of points:

    I cant work out if Coulson was guilty how was Rebekah Brookes cleared?

    Secondly Coulson is likely to get 6-12 months I would think.

    This case has cost £35 million plus all the millions on police time, to send someone to jail for 6 months. Good value?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I'd argue Coulson has been a loss to Cameron in the polls over the past four years. When he was head of communications the Tory media-operation was slick and effective. He appeared to be very good at his job, whatever bad stuff he'd done in the past.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    It crossed my mind that it might have been a cool tactic from EdM not to mention Coulson at all.. would he have been slated for this? I'm obviously not a political strategist!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    This is a big political story and worthy of reporting by the media but I wonder how long the BBC can drag this out as their 'top story' - Day 2 and today's top headline is the Judges rebuke from yesterday.

    Needless to say it is not the 'most read', which is "Woman, 90, dragged off Rochdale street and raped"
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Currystar - as I understand it they had emails of Coulson discussing hacked information but they only alledged that Brookes must know in her role i.e no smoking gun

    I cannot understand how this will go down as a serious negative with voters - there are only a few instances of genuine victims. I mean Abi Titmuss was on the telly last night talking about her 'victimhood' and this is woman who released an adult film a la paris hilton to make her more famous.

    Is this really an iraq war moment with soldiers dying and millions of foreigners dying in an ill advised war, which did effect voting patterns.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    This may be of interest to Guardianistas and the Twitterati, so a limited public interest, however I doubt this would put them off voting for Cameron(!) and they are surely very likely to vote types anyway so surely not a turnout enhancer like the expenses scandal

    This is a big political story and worthy of reporting by the media but I wonder how long the BBC can drag this out as their 'top story' - Day 2 and today's top headline is the Judges rebuke from yesterday.

    Needless to say it is not the 'most read', which is "Woman, 90, dragged off Rochdale street and raped"

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Currystar - as I understand it they had emails of Coulson discussing hacked information but they only alledged that Brookes must know in her role i.e no smoking gun

    I cannot understand how this will go down as a serious negative with voters - there are only a few instances of genuine victims. I mean Abi Titmuss was on the telly last night talking about her 'victimhood' and this is woman who released an adult film a la paris hilton to make her more famous.

    Is this really an iraq war moment with soldiers dying and millions of foreigners dying in an ill advised war, which did effect voting patterns.

    Also the use of the word criminal, although strictly speaking correct, makes this so much more dramatic than it is.. he isn't a murderer or a rapist, he is a journalist that used dirty tactics to get a scoop.. well I'll be darned

    I cant imagine many normal people are bothered about it at all

    Its like the outrage at UKIP councillors saying "poof" from people who supported the Iraq war, no sense of perspective
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    currystar said:

    A couple of points:

    I cant work out if Coulson was guilty how was Rebekah Brookes cleared?

    Maybe because she is innocent ?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    FPT
    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Since 2010, Obama's US economy has grown by 8%, and unemployment has fallen by 3.6 points. In the same time period, Cameron's UK economy has grown by 6% and unemployment has fallen by 1.5 points. But you know, one quarter of very bad weather in the US was bad, so that must mean that Obama is a disaster, while Cameron has overseen an economic miracle.

    US banking system much smaller than UK's as %.
    Less exposed to Euro crisis.
    Unemployment figures very flattered by drop in participation rate.
    US first in first out.
    US GDP growth more driven by immigration than even UK.
    Point by point:

    - Financial sector is 8% of US GDP and 9% of UK GDP, so not much in it.
    - This one's fair, but ultimately it's been a policy decision to base our trade strategy on a closed trading bloc with the EU, which Cameron supports.
    - US employment has increased by 5.4%, while UK employment has increased by 4.6%, and participation rates won't affect that calculation
    - US recession started in Q3 2008, UK recession started in Q2 2008. The US did have a one quarter dip in Q1 2008, before recovering, but all-in-all, not much in it
    - Immigration actually hurts you when you have slack in your labour market because you have to create jobs even faster.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Big danger for Labour if they decide to keep flogging this horse and waste more pre-election time on this issue rather than addressing the concerns of the electorate.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Wow 2 goals in 4 minutes Argies v Nigeria 1-1
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Goodness — 2 goals after 3 minutes in the Argentina vs Nigeria match.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    TGOHF said:

    currystar said:

    A couple of points:

    I cant work out if Coulson was guilty how was Rebekah Brookes cleared?

    Maybe because she is innocent ?
    ROFLMAO!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Edin_Rokz said:

    TGOHF said:

    currystar said:

    A couple of points:

    I cant work out if Coulson was guilty how was Rebekah Brookes cleared?

    Maybe because she is innocent ?
    ROFLMAO!
    If you know otherwise, why not present your evidence to the relevant authorities.
  • This is a big political story and worthy of reporting by the media but I wonder how long the BBC can drag this out as their 'top story' - Day 2 and today's top headline is the Judges rebuke from yesterday.

    Needless to say it is not the 'most read', which is "Woman, 90, dragged off Rochdale street and raped"

    It's hard to see how the story can have further legs. Cameron has apologised. It has been covered at PMQs. It doesn't look like there is anywhere else to go.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    I doubt it will have even a short-term impact. Total non-story. Andy who?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Garethofthevale

    About the same length of time as "baconbuttygate" at least?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited June 2014
    "This is a big political story and worthy of reporting by the media but I wonder how long the BBC can drag this out as their 'top story' - Day 2 and today's top headline is the Judges rebuke from yesterday."

    They will find a way. The Guardian / BBC will try and drag this out for a few more days at least, unless Iraq goes totally nuclear. They clearly had loads and loads of stuff lined up ready to go against their arch enemy, although the fact only one man got found guilty (and not of all the charges), probably means quite a bit is on the cutting room floor now.

    Are we getting a Panorama special next week by any chance?

    They were still prattling on about Miller days and days after she resigned.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Edin_Rokz said:

    TGOHF said:

    currystar said:

    A couple of points:

    I cant work out if Coulson was guilty how was Rebekah Brookes cleared?

    Maybe because she is innocent ?
    ROFLMAO!
    If you know otherwise, why not present your evidence to the relevant authorities.
    He follows Peter Jukes on twitter - he's therefore an expert in law...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    currystar said:

    A couple of points:


    This case has cost £35 million plus all the millions on police time, to send someone to jail for 6 months. Good value?

    That's why I think CPS will have to go for a retrial on charges jury was unable to reach a verdict on.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    isam said:

    Currystar - as I understand it they had emails of Coulson discussing hacked information but they only alledged that Brookes must know in her role i.e no smoking gun

    I cannot understand how this will go down as a serious negative with voters - there are only a few instances of genuine victims. I mean Abi Titmuss was on the telly last night talking about her 'victimhood' and this is woman who released an adult film a la paris hilton to make her more famous.

    Is this really an iraq war moment with soldiers dying and millions of foreigners dying in an ill advised war, which did effect voting patterns.

    Also the use of the word criminal, although strictly speaking correct, makes this so much more dramatic than it is.. he isn't a murderer or a rapist, he is a journalist that used dirty tactics to get a scoop.. well I'll be darned

    I cant imagine many normal people are bothered about it at all

    Its like the outrage at UKIP councillors saying "poof" from people who supported the Iraq war, no sense of perspective
    I can still recall the fun and games on this site when a couple of well kent names outed another.

    And I do seem to remember a couple of your comments when someone tried to out you.

    The tactics used by the NotW and many other newspapers was illegal and caused not just embarrassment to a few celebrities, but also harm and hurt to many. There will be over 100 cases going to trial within the next year, plus all the civil cases (where the evidence of proof is less than a criminal court) which could lead to new cases being made against those recently declared Not Guilty. (Tommy Sheridan is already suing Coulson in Scotland)

    What will happen now is that Labour will tie the Tories into the Murdoch Hacking Machine. Whichever way you look at it, this damages DC, slowly, surely, a lingering death from a thousand cuts.

    I am looking forward to tomorrows Private Eye, should be interesting.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited June 2014
    When is the decision on Junker due? I think that could be potentially much more impactful on the political scene than Coulson.

    Well, not the decision itself, but Cameron's response to it...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Edin_Rokz said:

    isam said:

    Currystar - as I understand it they had emails of Coulson discussing hacked information but they only alledged that Brookes must know in her role i.e no smoking gun

    I cannot understand how this will go down as a serious negative with voters - there are only a few instances of genuine victims. I mean Abi Titmuss was on the telly last night talking about her 'victimhood' and this is woman who released an adult film a la paris hilton to make her more famous.

    Is this really an iraq war moment with soldiers dying and millions of foreigners dying in an ill advised war, which did effect voting patterns.

    Also the use of the word criminal, although strictly speaking correct, makes this so much more dramatic than it is.. he isn't a murderer or a rapist, he is a journalist that used dirty tactics to get a scoop.. well I'll be darned

    I cant imagine many normal people are bothered about it at all

    Its like the outrage at UKIP councillors saying "poof" from people who supported the Iraq war, no sense of perspective
    I can still recall the fun and games on this site when a couple of well kent names outed another.

    And I do seem to remember a couple of your comments when someone tried to out you.

    The tactics used by the NotW and many other newspapers was illegal and caused not just embarrassment to a few celebrities, but also harm and hurt to many. There will be over 100 cases going to trial within the next year, plus all the civil cases (where the evidence of proof is less than a criminal court) which could lead to new cases being made against those recently declared Not Guilty. (Tommy Sheridan is already suing Coulson in Scotland)

    What will happen now is that Labour will tie the Tories into the Murdoch Hacking Machine. Whichever way you look at it, this damages DC, slowly, surely, a lingering death from a thousand cuts.

    I am looking forward to tomorrows Private Eye, should be interesting.
    Someone tried to out me? What do you mean?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @GIN1138

    Cameron's response will indeed be interesting, he is a shrewd judge of character that man
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Well, not the decision itself, but Cameron's response to it...

    Iain Martin seems to think the Juncker deliberation is a very big deal. Make of that what you will.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Cameron's luck has ridden to the rescue again with the timing of the verdicts - announced on the same day as wimbledon, England playing in World Cup and England losing in the last over of a test. Normally five live would have had Richard Bacon interviewing some random left wing celeb about a book and letting them rant on about Cameron and "Murdoch Press" with frequent outside the court coverage interspersed with news going into evening news saturation coverage.

    The big thing that I don't understand about this whole 'Murdoch Press' influence thing is that the people reading the newspapers have paid for the privilege. There is no free online version so either the people who buy the papers have been subtly brainwashed or more likely they actually agree with what is written, and just happen to have an opinion different to that of the Guardian / BBC / Twitter, who in the main imply that you must have your head looked at if you have a right of centre viewpoint.

    In fact the BBC etc have had a significant impact on the language used. If you think we shouldn't be part of the the EU you are a eurosceptic which has the implication that you are crazy. The same with climate change deniers. If you query the scientific proof, even if you think that climate change may be happening, you are met with an almost religious fervour against you which has framed the debate.

    In fact New Labour were very good at this when they reframed spending taxpayers money as investment even if it was nothing of the sort.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    taffys said:

    Well, not the decision itself, but Cameron's response to it...

    Iain Martin seems to think the Juncker deliberation is a very big deal. Make of that what you will.

    You do get the sense it's going to be a big deal, but not sure how well connected Martin is to the inner sanctum. Probably not that well, given he seems to hate Cameron's guts, LOL.

    It will be fascinating to see what happens.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @TGOHF

    Terrible backlash against Labour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited June 2014
    BBC Ticker - At least 12 people killed in explosion near shopping centre in Nigerian capital Abuja - local hospitals

    Reports in other media at the scene, saying bomb attack.

    http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/163685-breaking-explosion-rocks-abuja-many-feared-dead.html
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Nemtynakht

    Not that lucky, England's lack of sporting success will have quite a few in a gloomier mood than usual, and gloomy people tend to assume the worst of any situation.

    (counter factuals written to order, reasonable rates)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Isam

    Agreed. I think Lotos often miss the silent tactic - can be quite effective.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    If you want to know what the inner sanctum is thinking Matthew D'Ancona is the one to go to;

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/matthew-dancona-david-cameron-goes-to-the-brink-over-ec-presidency-9561840.html

    He seems to think Juncker is a big decision too.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Edin_Rokz said:


    The tactics used by the NotW and many other newspapers was illegal and caused not just embarrassment to a few celebrities, but also harm and hurt to many. There will be over 100 cases going to trial within the next year, plus all the civil cases (where the evidence of proof is less than a criminal court) which could lead to new cases being made against those recently declared Not Guilty. (Tommy Sheridan is already suing Coulson in Scotland)

    What will happen now is that Labour will tie the Tories into the Murdoch Hacking Machine. Whichever way you look at it, this damages DC, slowly, surely, a lingering death from a thousand cuts.

    I am looking forward to tomorrows Private Eye, should be interesting.

    Who are the sympathetic victims though - when Cameron was bounced into Leveson it was because according to the Guardian NOTW hacked phone of Millie Dowler and removed evidence which could have helped enquiry - now we know that messages were deleted by network, and whilst the victims of crime having messages listened to are reprehensible, are there really that many, and will they get a voice in the media around the Celebs like for example Abi Titmuss. The celebs will have there full management support trying to get them in the media ahead but this will drown out the true victims.

    Secondly is it really an Iraq war - will hundreds of thousands march against?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    currystar said:

    A couple of points:

    I cant work out if Coulson was guilty how was Rebekah Brookes cleared?

    Secondly Coulson is likely to get 6-12 months I would think.

    This case has cost £35 million plus all the millions on police time, to send someone to jail for 6 months. Good value?

    The principle should be upheld that justice in a democratic society is always good value.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Nakht.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited June 2014
    As predicted BBC going to keep the hacking story going...out of the woodwork, just learned....

    LATEST:Carole Middleton, mother of Duchess of Cambridge, had phone hacked by News of the World, BBC learns

    Funny how they never seem very interested in the Mirror and reports of their activities.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2014

    As predicted BBC going to keep the hacking story going...out of the woodwork, just learned....
    LATEST:Carole Middleton, mother of Duchess of Cambridge, had phone hacked by News of the World, BBC learns
    Funny how they never seem very interested in the Mirror and reports of their activities.

    The Trinity Mirror group were bigger users than NI. Funny that not looked at by the BBC?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    edited June 2014
    Hmm. Surprised to see Ferrer's out, beaten by Kuznetsov.

    Edited extra bit: for those wondering, I have been checking for tennis tips, but nothing jumped out at me.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Bored already. Nothing new to come out of this. The tribalists have already made up their minds and won't be changing them anytime soon.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BobaFett said:

    I doubt it will have even a short-term impact. Total non-story. Andy who?

    I'd also point out that, technically speaking, Ed Miliband has also had several years to think about potential questions in the event that Coulson was convicted, so it's not as if Cameron had a fundamental advantage
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    "The principle should be upheld that justice in a democratic society is always good value."

    Not sure I quite understand you there, Jack.

    Do you mean that highly-paid lawyers who get their clients off, means that we have justice in this country?

    Color me skeptical, as they say.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    F1: fascinating piece on engines next year. Basically, Mercedes may supply either Sauber, Caterham or Lotus, as they'll lose McLaren and supplying another team means more money (so why not?).

    However, the Mercedes is the cheapest engine. It's miles better than the others, and nearly half the cost of the priciest: Renault.

    http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/06/25/the-onomatopoeia-of-f1-engines/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Al-Qaeda merges with Isis at Syria-Iraq border town

    Al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate swears loyalty to Isis, opening way for jihadist group to control vast swathes of land on both sides of Iraq-Syria border"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/al-qaeda/10925602/Al-Qaeda-merges-with-Isis-at-Syria-Iraq-border-town.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    BBC Ticker - At least 12 people killed in explosion near shopping centre in Nigerian capital Abuja - local hospitals

    Reports in other media at the scene, saying bomb attack.

    http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/163685-breaking-explosion-rocks-abuja-many-feared-dead.html

    Just another day in northern/central Nigeria.
  • antifrank1antifrank1 Posts: 81
    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. JS, and yet it's an atheist who's been consigned to a mental hospital for not believing in a god...

    Mr. Antifrank, quite. It's like tempo in fencing. Or the approach of the Cunctator in the Second Punic War.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    Charles said:

    BobaFett said:

    I doubt it will have even a short-term impact. Total non-story. Andy who?

    I'd also point out that, technically speaking, Ed Miliband has also had several years to think about potential questions in the event that Coulson was convicted, so it's not as if Cameron had a fundamental advantage
    But no-one expected Coulson to be convicted yet Brooks to go free. That meant Miliband's whole line of attack had narrowed and meant Cameron's defence was easier.
    As for the wider impact... Rebecca was the story, not Coulson, and she's at home warming up the laptop and preparing Chapter One: Revenge is a Dish Best Served Cold and Chapter Two: Hell Hath No Fury.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    A fair point.

    What happened to the original antifrank?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2014

    As predicted BBC going to keep the hacking story going...out of the woodwork, just learned....
    LATEST:Carole Middleton, mother of Duchess of Cambridge, had phone hacked by News of the World, BBC learns
    Funny how they never seem very interested in the Mirror and reports of their activities.

    The Trinity Mirror group were bigger users than NI. Funny that not looked at by the BBC?
    I remember from the last time 'hack-gate' was covered by the BBC, they got themselves in a right old pickle. When the latest journalist was arrested, Aunty forgot to mention she was from the Guardian, but still provided the, by now generic "NoW" caption picture with the story.

    The odd thing was, even after the Guardian issued a two sentence press release, the Beeb edited out the second half admitting responsibility. They just can't help themselves.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Just another day in northern/central Nigeria.

    Maybe one day it'll be northern/central England.
  • antifrank1antifrank1 Posts: 81
    RobD said:

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    A fair point.

    What happened to the original antifrank?
    He's still around. But on this computer he logs into a different gmail account, so needs a different username.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    As predicted BBC going to keep the hacking story going...out of the woodwork, just learned....
    LATEST:Carole Middleton, mother of Duchess of Cambridge, had phone hacked by News of the World, BBC learns
    Funny how they never seem very interested in the Mirror and reports of their activities.

    The Trinity Mirror group were bigger users than NI. Funny that not looked at by the BBC?
    That was a different kind of 'good' hacking, not to be confused with NI's 'bad' hacking.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2014

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    Not sure about that, because it works both ways. Labour need to regain credibility, and in particular to persuade people that they have something vaguely resembling an economic policy. This was supposed to be the time when the blank sheet of paper was to be filled in. So Labour need time too, and arguably more so.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2014
    taffys said:

    Just another day in northern/central Nigeria.

    Maybe one day it'll be northern/central England.

    More likely Northern/Central London
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    RobD said:

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    A fair point.

    What happened to the original antifrank?
    He's still around. But on this computer he logs into a different gmail account, so needs a different username.
    isam and Sam were told in no uncertain terms this wasn't allowed!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    RobD said:

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    A fair point.

    What happened to the original antifrank?
    He's still around. But on this computer he logs into a different gmail account, so needs a different username.
    Ah, I never use that "log in with" feature offered by the likes of Facebook and Google, as I don't trust it. I make a new login/pass for each site.

    Perhaps antifrank1 should be antifrank_at_work? :')
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    GIN1138 said:

    If you want to know what the inner sanctum is thinking Matthew D'Ancona is the one to go to;

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/matthew-dancona-david-cameron-goes-to-the-brink-over-ec-presidency-9561840.html

    He seems to think Juncker is a big decision too.

    Following the UKIP victory in May, it's crucial for Cameron to act or be seen to be acting tough on Europe. I'm not convinced this is the battle to die in the ditch - most people won't be aware of Juncker or of the Presidency of the Commission or the saliency of the issue and I suppose that's the point. Any fight will do as long as it looks as though we're standing up to the nasty old EU.

    I suspect that's the bemusement in the rest of the EU - it looks as though Cameron is picking a fight just for the hell of it and pandering to domestic political consumption which all politicians have to do periodically.

    What puzzles me is the absence of a credible alternative candidate - where is the young, dynamic centre-right reformer that we can all rally round and proclaim as the future of the newly reformed EU ? Er, yes, I don't know either.

    This then is Cameron's problem - he doesn't like the main choice but doesn't seem to have anyone else or a figure whom he has canvassed among his so-called EU allies - it seems an odd way to fight a battle leaving him seemingly with two options - capitulation or the nuclear option of a referendum and again the Presidency of the Commission doesn't seem the issue on which to win over uncertain voters (much as AV wasn't).

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    Not sure about that, because it works both ways. Labour need to regain credibility, and in particular to persuade people that they have something vaguely resembling an economic policy. This was supposed to be the time when the blank sheet of paper was to be filled in. So Labour need time too, and arguably more so.

    Labour will release their policies in the clear air of Conference. Not before.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    PClipp said:

    "The principle should be upheld that justice in a democratic society is always good value."

    Not sure I quite understand you there, Jack.

    Do you mean that highly-paid lawyers who get their clients off, means that we have justice in this country?

    Color me skeptical, as they say.

    As has been shown in this case, the prosecution has the power and the finances of the State behind them and in certain cases the State will think little of spending a disproportionate amount of money to ensure a conviction. As such I am not sure we can be too critical of defence lawyers charging large sums of money to counter that.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Still think it will make no difference but just to say the "Cameron under fire" story leads tonight's Standard.

    Can't see anyone actually reading it on this Tube though :-o
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014
    Socrates said:

    FPT

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Since 2010, Obama's US economy has grown by 8%, and unemployment has fallen by 3.6 points. In the same time period, Cameron's UK economy has grown by 6% and unemployment has fallen by 1.5 points. But you know, one quarter of very bad weather in the US was bad, so that must mean that Obama is a disaster, while Cameron has overseen an economic miracle.

    US banking system much smaller than UK's as %.
    Less exposed to Euro crisis.
    Unemployment figures very flattered by drop in participation rate.
    US first in first out.
    US GDP growth more driven by immigration than even UK.
    Point by point:

    - Financial sector is 8% of US GDP and 9% of UK GDP, so not much in it.
    - This one's fair, but ultimately it's been a policy decision to base our trade strategy on a closed trading bloc with the EU, which Cameron supports.
    - US employment has increased by 5.4%, while UK employment has increased by 4.6%, and participation rates won't affect that calculation
    - US recession started in Q3 2008, UK recession started in Q2 2008. The US did have a one quarter dip in Q1 2008, before recovering, but all-in-all, not much in it
    - Immigration actually hurts you when you have slack in your labour market because you have to create jobs even faster.
    The US recession was both shorter and shallower than the UK's.

    The US recession spanned four quarters from Q3 2008 although, as you say, there was one quarter of -0.67% followed by another with growth of 0.50% before the four quarter span.

    From peak to trough, GDP growth in the US fell by 4.26%.

    The UK recession spanned five quarters from Q2 2008 with the sixth quarter having Brown's famous "growth of nought percent". In fact there was no growth in the sixth quarter but the -0.004% contraction did not qualify as recessionary under the one decimal point rule.

    From peak to trough, GDP growth in the UK fell by 7.19%.

    The UK only very narrowly missed a double dip recession with the three quarters between Q4 2011 and Q2 2012 all showing negative growth (-0.11%, -0.01%, -0.39%) but with the middle quarter not qualifying under the same one decimal point rule as above.

    The difference in depth is clearly significant. The relative durations less so.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    More likely Northern/Central London

    Right now, the papers are running at one race/culture incident per day for east London...

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    As predicted BBC going to keep the hacking story going...out of the woodwork, just learned....

    LATEST:Carole Middleton, mother of Duchess of Cambridge, had phone hacked by News of the World, BBC learns

    Funny how they never seem very interested in the Mirror and reports of their activities.

    It's a left liberal metropolitan media conspiracy.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Edin_Rokz said:

    isam said:

    Currystar - as I understand it they had emails of Coulson discussing hacked information but they only alledged that Brookes must know in her role i.e no smoking gun

    I cannot understand how this will go down as a serious negative with voters - there are only a few instances of genuine victims. I mean Abi Titmuss was on the telly last night talking about her 'victimhood' and this is woman who released an adult film a la paris hilton to make her more famous.

    Is this really an iraq war moment with soldiers dying and millions of foreigners dying in an ill advised war, which did effect voting patterns.

    Also the use of the word criminal, although strictly speaking correct, makes this so much more dramatic than it is.. he isn't a murderer or a rapist, he is a journalist that used dirty tactics to get a scoop.. well I'll be darned

    I cant imagine many normal people are bothered about it at all

    Its like the outrage at UKIP councillors saying "poof" from people who supported the Iraq war, no sense of perspective
    I can still recall the fun and games on this site when a couple of well kent names outed another.

    And I do seem to remember a couple of your comments when someone tried to out you.

    The tactics used by the NotW and many other newspapers was illegal and caused not just embarrassment to a few celebrities, but also harm and hurt to many. There will be over 100 cases going to trial within the next year, plus all the civil cases (where the evidence of proof is less than a criminal court) which could lead to new cases being made against those recently declared Not Guilty. (Tommy Sheridan is already suing Coulson in Scotland)

    What will happen now is that Labour will tie the Tories into the Murdoch Hacking Machine. Whichever way you look at it, this damages DC, slowly, surely, a lingering death from a thousand cuts.

    I am looking forward to tomorrows Private Eye, should be interesting.
    Private Eye: if you have a subscription, you have it now. Bear in mind publication times. Pro tip: you're going to be disappointed.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BobaFett said:

    Still think it will make no difference but just to say the "Cameron under fire" story leads tonight's Standard.

    Can't see anyone actually reading it on this Tube though :-o

    Are you heading off for a pint in Albert Square with Dick Whittington?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    taffys said:

    More likely Northern/Central London

    Right now, the papers are running at one race/culture incident per day for east London...

    Really, I can't say I have noticed to be honest. The only story the Beeb is covering is linked below. - 4 dead, 6 jailed, but no mention of racially motivated crime.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28014035
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BobaFett said:

    Still think it will make no difference but just to say the "Cameron under fire" story leads tonight's Standard.

    Can't see anyone actually reading it on this Tube though :-o

    How are you posting on the tube? Shepherds Bush is deep underground isn't it?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Labour will release their policies in the clear air of Conference. Not before.

    Yeah, sure. Perhaps then we'll eventually find out whether the criticism is 'too far too fast' or 'not far enough and not fast enough', and whether the attack line is 'too tough on welfare' or 'not tough enough on welfare', and the same on immigration.

    Whichever way they go (and I don't share your confidence that we'll ever find out), they will face two problems: credibility, especially since they've been all over the place so far, and the problem that actually being specific will alienate existing supporters.

    Ed Miliband has made an absolute hash of strategic preparation, instead throwing off random and mutually contradictory policy mini-statements, which often get reversed. We saw an excellent example a few days ago, when Ed announced a policy on reducing benefits for 18-21 year olds which not only made little sense, but flatly contradicted what Rachel Reeves said last November.

    Your faith in Ed's ability to put this all back into a coherent whole with just a few months to go is, I'm afraid, very unlikely to be rewarded.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    RobD said:

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    A fair point.

    What happened to the original antifrank?
    He's still around. But on this computer he logs into a different gmail account, so needs a different username.
    I thought he had gone away for the summer :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Nabavi, isn't 'too far, too fast' an accurate critique of Ed Balls' approach to driving?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PClipp said:

    "The principle should be upheld that justice in a democratic society is always good value."

    Not sure I quite understand you there, Jack.

    Do you mean that highly-paid lawyers who get their clients off, means that we have justice in this country?

    Color me skeptical, as they say.

    You may "color" your American scepticism any which way you wish.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited June 2014
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Still think it will make no difference but just to say the "Cameron under fire" story leads tonight's Standard.

    Can't see anyone actually reading it on this Tube though :-o

    How are you posting on the tube? Shepherds Bush is deep underground isn't it?
    Expect silence for a while, whilst Bob pretends that he's in a tunnel.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    BobaFett said:

    Still think it will make no difference but just to say the "Cameron under fire" story leads tonight's Standard.

    Can't see anyone actually reading it on this Tube though :-o

    What do you think we do on the Tube - discuss the finer points of French impressionism or consider the merits of Hegel as a philosopher ? To be fair, the purgatory that is the short hop from Bank to Mile End is just about survival - from Mile End it's much more civilised and I can peruse the Standard in reasonable comfort.

  • antifrank1antifrank1 Posts: 81
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    A fair point.

    What happened to the original antifrank?
    He's still around. But on this computer he logs into a different gmail account, so needs a different username.
    I thought he had gone away for the summer :)
    I'm flying out of town on Monday. I'll be returning to pb when autumn leaves start to fall.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Do you mean this crime:

    http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Antoin-Akpom-murder-Teenager-convicted-fatal/story-21282791-detail/story.html

    And this fatal arson in retaliation on the wrong house?:

    http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Leicester-house-deaths-judge-told-killers/story-21288241-detail/story.html

    The stabbing victim had no criminal record, but the killer (and intended target for revenge) had recently been released from custody after being convicted in relation to the 2011 London riots.

    It sounds like a turf was between rival gangs, with collateral damage to civilians.

    taffys said:

    More likely Northern/Central London

    Right now, the papers are running at one race/culture incident per day for east London...

    Really, I can't say I have noticed to be honest. The only story the Beeb is covering is linked below. - 4 dead, 6 jailed, but no mention of racially motivated crime.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28014035
  • antifrank1antifrank1 Posts: 81
    BobaFett said:

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    Not sure about that, because it works both ways. Labour need to regain credibility, and in particular to persuade people that they have something vaguely resembling an economic policy. This was supposed to be the time when the blank sheet of paper was to be filled in. So Labour need time too, and arguably more so.

    Labour will release their policies in the clear air of Conference. Not before.
    Then Labour better hope that there's a No vote in the Scottish independence referendum. The Labour party conference starts the next day.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014
    Is sukuk a Farage expletive or the subject of today's most important national economic news?

    See http://bloom.bg/1lpQEti for an answer.

    Yet more good news from St. George.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    Still think it will make no difference but just to say the "Cameron under fire" story leads tonight's Standard.

    Can't see anyone actually reading it on this Tube though :-o

    Are you heading off for a pint in Albert Square with Dick Whittington?
    A baffling post even by your standards.

    I'm off to see Mary Poppins.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited June 2014
    A sensible piece by Toby Young (yeah I know, my jaw dropped too) on why Justice Saunders is talking nonsense about David Cameron/Coulson/Phone hacking and all the rest...

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100277653/cameron-isnt-to-blame-for-the-collapse-of-the-hacking-trial/
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Still think it will make no difference but just to say the "Cameron under fire" story leads tonight's Standard.

    Can't see anyone actually reading it on this Tube though :-o

    How are you posting on the tube? Shepherds Bush is deep underground isn't it?
    WiFi in most stations now, you have to be quick though!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    A fair point.

    What happened to the original antifrank?
    He's still around. But on this computer he logs into a different gmail account, so needs a different username.
    I thought he had gone away for the summer :)
    I'm flying out of town on Monday. I'll be returning to pb when autumn leaves start to fall.
    Are you holing up in Hungary or doing something completely different (no need to say what)?

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Isam - I wasn't in Shepherd's Bush as it happens - why did you think I was?
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Socrates said:

    FPT

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Since 2010, Obama's US economy has grown by 8%, and unemployment has fallen by 3.6 points. In the same time period, Cameron's UK economy has grown by 6% and unemployment has fallen by 1.5 points. But you know, one quarter of very bad weather in the US was bad, so that must mean that Obama is a disaster, while Cameron has overseen an economic miracle.

    US banking system much smaller than UK's as %.
    Less exposed to Euro crisis.
    Unemployment figures very flattered by drop in participation rate.
    US first in first out.
    US GDP growth more driven by immigration than even UK.
    Point by point:

    - Financial sector is 8% of US GDP and 9% of UK GDP, so not much in it.
    - This one's fair, but ultimately it's been a policy decision to base our trade strategy on a closed trading bloc with the EU, which Cameron supports.
    - US employment has increased by 5.4%, while UK employment has increased by 4.6%, and participation rates won't affect that calculation
    - US recession started in Q3 2008, UK recession started in Q2 2008. The US did have a one quarter dip in Q1 2008, before recovering, but all-in-all, not much in it
    - Immigration actually hurts you when you have slack in your labour market because you have to create jobs even faster.
    ?
    Banking system in the UK was a multiple of the US, banking assets are what matter, it's why our bailout was 800USD and the US Tarp just 700. Irrelevant stat.
    Irrelevant, more a hobby horse there.
    Adjusting for labour force participation the UK has far outperformed the US. Again random stat generator.
    2Qs makes a difference.
    Immigration inflates GDP.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    AveryLP said:

    Is sukuk a Farage expletive or the subject of today's most important national economic news?

    See http://bloom.bg/1lpQEti for an answer.

    Yet more good news from St. George.

    From ye gospel Wikipedia:

    "Saint George is somewhat of an exception among saints and legends, in that he is known and respected by Muslims, as well as venerated by Christians... "

    How apt.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    @foxinsoxuk – Yes Mr Fox, that’s the story I was referring to. – Horrible business, these turf wars, innocent bystanders always end up caught in the cross fire.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014
    BobaFett said:

    @Isam - I wasn't in Shepherd's Bush as it happens - why did you think I was?

    I thought Sam suggested you were in a bush in Shepherd Market.

    Or perhaps I misread.

  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Also the UK had a worse fiscal position and the bank bailout cost 850. Really no comparison, we were more a Greece, Ireland, Spain than US.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited June 2014
    I have been out of the jurisdiction for the past few days, but here are my thoughts:
    *The judgment of Saunders J on Mr Coulson's application for discharge of the jury was plainly correct. His attack on the Prime Minister's comments was, however, inappropriate for a serving judge. The Prime Minister should not have commented until the jury had returned verdicts on all counts, but the comments that he did make posed no real threat to the administration of justice in the proceedings before the Central Criminal Court. Everything else was irrelevant.
    *The media and politicians are engaged in a self-serving and hypocritical frenzy, at enormous cost to the taxpayer.
    *Individual liberty and freedom of expression are under greater threat today than at any point since the Second World War, but few in either the media or politics seem to care.
  • antifrank1antifrank1 Posts: 81
    AveryLP said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    A fair point.

    What happened to the original antifrank?
    He's still around. But on this computer he logs into a different gmail account, so needs a different username.
    I thought he had gone away for the summer :)
    I'm flying out of town on Monday. I'll be returning to pb when autumn leaves start to fall.
    Are you holing up in Hungary or doing something completely different (no need to say what)?

    I shall be flying to Hungary, where I intend to do a lot of fruit picking, cycling and swimming in the country. Within Hungary I shall be visiting the Tokay and Villany wine regions. I shall also be making excursions to Azerbaijan, Austria, Slovenia, north east Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland (north and south), rural Suffolk and Montenegro. There may be other jaunts.

    I am not taking a phone with me. In the three months that I'm away, I am intending to go online only to print out plane tickets. I'm taking notebooks instead.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Still think it will make no difference but just to say the "Cameron under fire" story leads tonight's Standard.

    Can't see anyone actually reading it on this Tube though :-o

    How are you posting on the tube? Shepherds Bush is deep underground isn't it?
    Expect silence for a while, whilst Bob pretends that he's in a tunnel.
    You haven't used a smartphone on a Tube recently I take it.
    Your posts are odd, and somewhat creepy.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited June 2014
    ''Yes Mr Fox, that’s the story I was referring to. – Horrible business, these turf wars, innocent bystanders always end up caught in the cross fire.''

    My attention was drawn to a court case (from the Mail Monday ) where a man was allegedly viciously attacked by a gang of young men in East London, seemingly for the crime of drinking in public.

    And then on Tuesday the Standard ran a story the police are investigating a case where a gay couple were allegedly insulted and intimidated by another 'gang', again in east London.

    I don;t want to be more specific but perhaps you'll get the drift from the above.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    England team greeted by one elderly woman at Manchester airport as they arrive back in the UK:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    There was some excellent policing after the incidents. Just the right combination of community liaison and presence on the streets to keep further problems or even rioting.

    Lessons perhaps learned from the Handsworth riots some years ago:

    http://kenanmalik.wordpress.com/2012/06/07/what-is-wrong-with-multiculturalism-part-2/

    Malik writes a very provoking critique of multiculturism.

    @foxinsoxuk – Yes Mr Fox, that’s the story I was referring to. – Horrible business, these turf wars, innocent bystanders always end up caught in the cross fire.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    The story uses up time. The Conservatives need to use the weeks remaining to close the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. The story may not change a single vote. That doesn't matter. The Conservatives are the ones needing to change votes.

    A fair point.

    What happened to the original antifrank?
    He's still around. But on this computer he logs into a different gmail account, so needs a different username.
    I thought he had gone away for the summer :)
    I'm flying out of town on Monday. I'll be returning to pb when autumn leaves start to fall.
    Are you holing up in Hungary or doing something completely different (no need to say what)?

    I shall be flying to Hungary, where I intend to do a lot of fruit picking, cycling and swimming in the country. Within Hungary I shall be visiting the Tokay and Villany wine regions. I shall also be making excursions to Azerbaijan, Austria, Slovenia, north east Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland (north and south), rural Suffolk and Montenegro. There may be other jaunts.

    I am not taking a phone with me. In the three months that I'm away, I am intending to go online only to print out plane tickets. I'm taking notebooks instead.
    It all sounds very 'pre-prepared' in good antifrank manner. Azerbaijan is a little "brave" though. Interesting food if you avoid the new restaurants trying to be international.

    Why not buy a "Vinum Regum, Rex Vinorum" estate when in Tokaj ?

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BobaFett said:

    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Still think it will make no difference but just to say the "Cameron under fire" story leads tonight's Standard.

    Can't see anyone actually reading it on this Tube though :-o

    How are you posting on the tube? Shepherds Bush is deep underground isn't it?
    Expect silence for a while, whilst Bob pretends that he's in a tunnel.
    You haven't used a smartphone on a Tube recently I take it.
    Your posts are odd, and somewhat creepy.
    I wouldn't know about that Bob, being in France. Here in Paris, the evening sun is glinting off the Seine as onion sellers in stripy jumpers cycle along the Avenue des Champs-Élysée.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Important to remember North sea oil has declined whilst US shale oil and gas have expanded rapidly in that period, in spite of Obama.
    Again my key point is a financial crisis is far dire than a recession, it's the banking system that matters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    taffys said:
    Ugh, as someone who quite enjoys an infographic, the colouring of those pie segments makes no sense!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,036
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited June 2014
    @Sun_Politics: John Cruddas accuses Labour frontbenchers of plotting against Ed Miliband: http://t.co/oxEfqKxvEw


    ED Miliband's policy chief has sensationally accused Labour frontbenchers of plotting against their leader.
    John Cruddas suggested shadow cabinet trio Andy Burnham, Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper were positioning themselves to succeed their boss.

This discussion has been closed.