Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If reports of private polling are accurate then the Greens
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If reports of private polling are accurate then the Greens could lose their only MP – Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavillion
At the last general election one of the most active constituency betting markets was on Brighton Pavillion where, as we all know, Caroline Lucas won through with a 31.3% vote share to become the Green party’s first MP. The result and vote changes are in the chart above.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I've long thought that backing Labour to regain Brighton Pavilion was one of the surest bets in the forthcoming GE.
I regard the Green Party - or, as I prefer to call them, the Enemies of Progress - as perhaps the ultimate evil. A group of people whose religion is so strong, it allows them to stamp on the very concept of individuality and freedom of choice. While I suspect my view is a lonely one, I regard the Green Party is as more dangerous to our way of life and our fundamental freedoms than fundamentalist Islam or the BNP. It is communism hidden behind the smiling face of the British middle classes.
I would take Farage or Clegg or Milliband or Cameron or any one of a number of insincere political apparatchiks - all of whom at least believe in the democratic process - ahead of any true believer in the Green religion.
rcs 1000 gets it in one. Just how much does the average voter really know about the main planks of the Green Party's policies? Very, very little I suspect.
O/T Those punters who backed Suarez to leave Liverpool during the summer transfer window and who are now concerned about their chances in the light of the latest biting allegations against the player, have the opportunity to reverse their bet by taking Corals' 5/4 odds that he will NOT leave Liverpool by the close of this transfer window.
An odious bunch of condescending, paternalistic charlatans, @RCS1000 calls them out.
although I think National Socialism as practiced by The Great Vegetarian as Auberon Waugh Called Mrs Merkels late predecessor as Chancellor is nearer the mark than communist as this blog entry explains
http://www.martindurkin.com/blogs/nazi-greens-inconvenient-history
Do you know if the poll named Lucas ? .... If not that would make quite a difference to the numbers. Further Lucas will be very high profile in the General Election campaign and the Greens will pour resources into the seat to retain it.
The latest ARSE, published yesterday, has the Greens on one seat and although this seat isn't part of the "JackW Dozen" I think PBers wouldn't be too far from the mark to infer a Green hold.
Although I wouldn’t have thought this seat was very fertile territory for them.
11-10 is OK for a gamble on a coin flip.... £10 on.
Not that it matters much.
Seems to me there have been a few comments expressing fundamental disagreements with the Green party's underlying philosophy.
But that's reasonable debate, expressed in moderate terms, not bile.
The fact that so many Liberal/right leaning voters would rather vote Labour than support the Greens suggests how they are perceived (at least in this audience) with respect to their political offering.
German greenism is more rooted in the romanticism of the 18th century than more recent political phenomena; as indeed it is in Britain. Greenism is more Blake than than Bolshevism, which is why Jerusalem has such resonance as Englands unofficial national anthem.
It's not that scary - it's a collection of ideas that would have unfortunate results if ever they were implemented, but that's not going to happen.
- Lab 39% / GRN 23%
Assuming Labour has kept all it's 2010 voters, it is on +10%, while the Greens are down 8%.
That suggests that either Labour has made minimal inroads into the LD (about 15% of their 2010 votes, dramatically lower than previous numbers)
Alternatively, it could be that they have taken more a more normal share of the LD (for sake of argument let's say 33% for LD10 - i.e. about half the defectors) as I forget the exact numbers. That would mean Labour has gained about 4% from the LD and 6% from the Greens, suggesting that a proportion of the Green vote is going NOTA.
At this point it becomes supposition...
I wonder if the LD10 vote is already lacking the protest froth that was seen in other constituencies: i.e. that in 2010 the "protest" vote actually went to the Greens. This might partially explain their rapid decline - protest voters preferring purity to the hard yards of actual government [even at the council level].
However, what this implies is that - even if Labour takes it's normal slice of the LibDems - there is a core vote for the LibDems of c. 10% (because the shift to UKIP in other areas is really a shift of protest voters and it doesn't look like there is much available to move).
Now, I know it is only one constituency (are there any others where there was a viable alternative protest vote in 2010?) but that's a lot of unproductive votes for the LibDems. Given how tight their "Zulu strategy" is, how would this impact the calculations?
There have only been two comments that have been that negative*:" rcs1000's moderately phrased but uncompromising philosophical positions and dr spyn's comment, which might fall into your definition but seems to me relatively mild compared to some of the views expressed on here.
Perhaps you can explain why you think there is "more bile than usual" this morning?
* Ignoring DavidL's reference to an "odious choice"
The public in Brighton may agree with the Greens on fracking,or whatever,but first and foremost they want their bins collected which is more likely to happen under Labour who have committed to keeping the streets of Brighton clean,a case of better-the-devil-you-know.
for "bile" read anyone who isn't in agreement with Innocent Abroad.
Voters back Cameron’s stance in fight against Juncker - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d6cc46ac-fbb0-11e3-9a03-00144feab7de.html
A Populus/FT poll found that...43 per cent of voters think that Mr Cameron was right to try to block Mr Juncker’s appointment to the top job in Brussels.
...49 per cent thought the prime minister was “strong” in taking his stand while only 22 per cent believed he would be seen as weak if – as expected – Mr Juncker’s appointment goes through anyway.
Nor that bile is produced by the liver which no doubt explains Adolf's dining preferences.
If IA had added "bloody" as an adjectival intensifier, we could have added red to colour spectrum of PB Lefties' commentary.
All distinguished comment on PB is blue of hue. See malcolmg for example.
Incidentally I agree 100% with RCS about the Greens. They are fanatics and of course in Scotland they let the SNP claim not to be the YESNP because they are propping up Eck's campaign. They are also a bunch of Republicans and for Jack W and me that is ample reason to consign them to the Tower on bread and water rations.
In honour of my noble ancestor Robert the Bruce I must try to upset more republican lefties if possible and of course Ed is crap.
It is also noteworthy that both Clegg and Miliband have opposed the appointment as well. If Juncker is appointed in the face of such fierce and united UK opposition I fear it will be a major step towards the exit for this country. What are the chances from here that Juncker will facilitate the kind of changes that Cameron could sell in a referendum?
Cameron is rightly demonstrating the breakdown in consensus by demanding a formal vote on the matter. There is quite a lot at stake here but the impression given by some EU members is that they don't care.
Labour Party 20,414
Green Party 18,586
Conservative Party 15,626
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 14,205
Liberal Democrats 4,025
An Independence from Europe 773
The Peace Party - Non-violence, Justice, Environment 474
The Socialist Party of Great Britain 397
Christian Peoples Alliance 380
British National Party 309
English Democrats 278
The Roman Party. Ave 114
YOURvoice 108
Harmony Party 51
Liberty Great Britain 41
Until malcomg joined it was actually a relatively polite thread
Green 23
Cons 18
Labour 13
Anyway, I have a fifty quid bet on with Neil re this *insert cocktail/train joke*.
EDIT: plus they've really fecked up some of the main local routes with a daft* bus lane system.
*even the bus companies think so.
I too hope Lucas is tossed overboard by the electorate.
Cameron took a man at his word, presumably backed up by appropriate references and a vetting process, and gave him a second chance.
One of the cultural developments of the last decade or so that I'm most concerned about is that a single mistake is now expected to cloud someone's entire life (as well as the automatic view that resignation is the only suitable punishment for a mistake). Redemption has to remain a possibility.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28010234
The odds are he faces a ban from International football, possibly a long one if FIFA decides the evidence of biting is clear enough. Either way, he suddenly becomes much more difficult to sell.
The problem of course is the sponsors. 888Poker are already regretting their decision to invest in his brand. Adidas and Sony will also be wondering whether they have bitten off more than he can chew this time. Any major club that might have been interested in this brilliant footballer are sure to be getting the thumbs down from their own sponsors. And that's without considering the distinct possibility that he does it again in a League match, and gets the kind of ban that puts him out until he reaches pensionable age.
Looks like Luis is going to be at Liverpool until that contract expires.
That won't tempt anyone, Shaddick - stick a zero or two on the end !
http://www.formula1.com/news/technical/2014/923/1197.html
It was thought to be unique to Mercedes, and one of the reasons for their advantage over everyone else. This may explain why Williams and not Force India were so close to them in Austria.
I also read, on the Sky site, that McLaren have 'made an approach' to Hamilton (it was labelled a silly season story). I don't think that would necessarily burden him with excessive contemplation.
Was Coulson charged with anything when he was hired by Cameron?
If not; then I for one am bored of this story. The real scandal is the cost of the whole affair at £100 million to m'learned friends and the police. Money that would have been better spent on so many other things.
A tabloid journalist is a bit dodgy? Well I never!
Unlikely, given the request made by Mr Justice Saunders to the media:
"I've become aware of the commenting that's gone on since the verdicts have been announced and I urge restraint on anyone from commenting further because the jury is still out considering verdicts in relation to Andy Coulson,"
And then later, after thanking the media for their co-operation, he urged politicians to show restraint in commenting on the trial because it is still ongoing.
It should be noted that the jury has been recalled for 11:00 am to continue their deliberations on the final four charges. It seems unlikely that the jury will have delivered their verdicts before PMQs kicks off at 12:00.
If Ed does lead on Coulson he would risk accused of considering himself 'above the law'.
With Coulson and phone hacking ruled out, what is left for Ed to ask? Suarez and the World Cup I expect. After all, backbiting is his specialist subject.
I've always regarded the Greens as harmless Hippies born too late. A sort of Neil out of "The Young Ones" rather than our Neil.
I'd only be worried if they began take seats other than token ones. At my age, I'm too old to live in a cave and exist on plant roots, but it isn't gonna happen.
Most big outsiders are quoted far too low but the reason is not fear or avarice on the part of the bookies. They know the punters won't have them at any price, so there's no point in sticking a couple of zeros on the end. Shadsy wouldn't take a penny more on the LDs in Brighton even if he did stick them up at 3,300/1.
He knows his job.
The Nabavi of All Sussex recommended a Telegraph article on the phone hacking trial last night.
It was truly a good article and well worth reading if you missed it yesterday.
The link again: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/10924054/Wicked-Witch-Rebekah-Brooks-was-not-so-wicked-after-all.html
As B&H is reputed to be the 'home base' of the L&Gs as well as those of the uncertain nature, if they put up a candidate, then that would make an interesting election.
I seriously question what the CPS in England and Crown Office in Scotland define as being "in the public interest". As a member of the public, I see their priority to be prosecuting allegedly violent individuals, drug dealers, international terrorists, those believed to have seriously misused public office or accused of substantial misappropriation of other peoples' property and the like. Too many of these high profile trials are based on flimsy evidence and too much faux public outrage.
Together with WWF and others of that ilk they project an endangered-beautiful animal image behind which they pursue their political ambitions. Often I have found that public economics do not concern them, but they are very keen to make sure their personal economy is not threatened.
What happened to the bribing the police charges? Far more serious, I would have thought.
I have no sympathy at all for the celebs themselves. They pander to this and if the media were to suddenly stop reporting anything at all about them they would be distraught. But that doesn't change the fact that, given that there is a law in place,. the CPS should prosecute if it thinks it has a reasonable case.
Does “leaving Liverpool to spend five years fishing” mean the bookies have to pay out?
Just party politics from Labour, and people wonder why everyone is turned off politics...
My understanding from local friends is, as rcs's flamboyant post suggests, that any tactical Tory votes will go to Labour rather than Greens. The Labour candidate is also solidly environmental, as indeed is the Tory. However, Caroline Lucas does what she says on the tin - she is an energetic champion of green issues, and there are probably enough people in Brighton who want exactly that to make it close. There's something a bit unreasonable in the venom with which some here object to hardcore environmentalists having a single MP.
I also expect some awful owl jokes today. Is Labour still claiming that the owl tweet was from hacking? In which case perhaps they should involve the police in this new hacking scandal.
And after all, what's the point of another lobby fodder Labour MP ?
* Caroline Green is not the "ultimate evil".
* Brighton & Hove with its two Tory MPs can hardly be described as "ultra left wing".
* Anyone who calls themselves "Financier", after the banking crash, ought to pause before they label other professions as "insulated from practicality and its effects"
* My favourite though are the Thatcherites condemning another party for pushing an ideology.
An extract from their report
Diana, Princess of Wales, gave a royal phone book to the News of the World in order to "take on" her estranged husband, the Old Bailey has heard.
Former NoW royal editor Clive Goodman told the phone-hacking trial he was sent the 1992 book because she was looking for "an ally" in the press.
She wanted to show the forces "ranged against her" in a "bitter situation" with the Prince of Wales, he said.
Mr Goodman is accused of paying police for royal phone books, which he denies.
Full article here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26557920
The BBC has no doubt been very selective in its reporting of the trial proceedings in respect of this charge and the jury will be considering more evidence when reaching their verdicts.
But the claimed intervention of our People's Princess will certainly have complicated the issue.
Coulson has come a cropper - but does anyone have faith in british Justice when we have already seen the police efforts to fit up a British Cabinet Minister?
For all the efforts to link Cameron to this, the fact that Brookes has been found not guilty is the key which distances Cameron from it all - its the police and CPS who have questions to answer. Indeed from what I read of the trial most 'evidence' semed to consist of gossip and tittle tattle.
5-4 sounds ok though.
"If a player is banned from international football for this sort of thing, how come he can still play for a club?"
Tricky one, OKC, and I'm not sure what the precedents are.
It would seem unfair for Liverpool to be punished for something he did whilst on International duty. Otoh, should a serial biter be allowed to play any form of football?
I suspect FIFA will wriggle out of it by saying the evidence of biting is inconclusive and just give him a one match ban for an attempted head butt.
EDIT: I should think the bookies would pay out on extended gardening leave, as he would still be contracted to Liverpool.
But if a politician did speak and it was heard by one or more members of the jury and, in the view of the judge, what was said was likely to influence the jury's verdict, then the judge could stop the proceedings and order a retrial before the verdicts are given.
That, and an associated risk of appeal post delivery of verdicts, are the real risks of Ed shooting before thinking.
They do object to benefits tourism and there is a good deal of concern about the unpredictability of large scale free movement (capital expenditure is hard enough to plan and manage as it is, without lots of people sloshing about Europe).
I hope that most EU states would care about the practicalities while defending the principle.
And if you were standing for Parliament, I'd vote for you for exactly the same reason, darling.