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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a year of edging down LAB is starting to move upwards
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a year of edging down LAB is starting to move upwards
As I’ve written many times before there are so many YouGov polls (five or six a week) that looking at averages is the best way of observing the trend. Thankfully the firm is making the calculations and is now publishing them. I used to attempt this task myself!
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Yesterday, I suggested that PBers might like to consider taking SkyBet's 6/4 against Suarez leaving Liverpool during the summer transfer window ..... citing his anti-English rant after he scored two goals for Uraguay against our lot last Thursday.
Well, this idea appears supported by this story in today's Sunday Times:
"LUIS SUAREZ will shock Liverpool in the summer by insisting he wants to leave Anfield for a new career in Spain. Real Madrid and Barcelona have approached England’s Footballer of the Year and are ready to meet a release clause understood to be £67.9m"
Since my post yesterday, the odds against the player's imminent departure have shortened from 6/4 to 6/5, but still value if you believe as I do that this is going to happen.
As ever, DYOR.
Neil Kinnock defends Ed Miliband against 'vindictive agenda' of critics
Labour party told leader 'has courage to fight hostile media', as other senior figures warn it could be out of power for 15 years
"Luis Suarez will spark £100MILLION tussle between Real Madrid and Barcelona as Liverpool struggle to hold on to star man"
We are likely to see more individual crossover polls as the year progresses but I don't expect them to become a more consistent and regular feature until the new year. One essential that will not change is that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Become Prime Minister
Ed is crap is PM 10.5 months to go.
Every poll in June would have Ed is crap is PM.
Something has to give...
Doesn’t matter who. Just not Nick Clegg!
Or have things gone too far?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
on those % gives 363/240/21.
In fact every poll this month including the tight ICM one gives a Lab maj on this swingometer
Once again, heap thanks upon John Major for preventing that idiot from ever getting into Number 10.
Also, the majority of these "hostile" articles appearing in the media recently are based entirely on Ed's dire personal ratings - Kinnoch would be more accurate if he accused those voters being polled as having the 'vindictive agenda'.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2664767/Our-weaknesses-benefits-borrowing-migrants-cost-Election-admits-Red-Ed-former-close-aide-turns-him.html
A Labour document obtained by The Mail on Sunday suggests that he has also given up hope of winning over new supporters.
Instead he is pinning his hopes on ‘shoring up’ Labour’s traditional working-class vote and declaring his own class war by smearing the ‘toxic Tories’ as rich and out of touch.
The damaging disclosures are contained in a leaked copy of Labour’s General Election strategy sent to all Labour shadow cabinet ministers.
Headed Political Strategy To 2015, it sets out how Mr Miliband plans to win power. But it also confirms claims by Labour MPs that the party faces an uphill struggle because voters find Mr Miliband and his views a big turn-off.
Sadly for our t'wit-a-woo regular the history of most recent duff prospective Labour PM this period out from a general election is awful.
ICM noted in the period July-Sep 86 Kinnock enjoyed a 6/7 point lead that saw him return as LotO at the 87 election. Roll on almost 4 years and the spring and summer of 1991 saw Kinnock again with 6/10 point leads only for Basildon et al to ring his electoral death knell again at the1992 General Election.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AonYZs4MzlZbcGhOdG0zTG1EWkVPOEY3OXRmOEIwZmc#gid=0
JackW states with complete certainty that Ed Milliband will never be PM. Betfair still thinks Lab most seats so i reckon just over a 50% chance he will.
We shall see.
Interesting 10.5 months
Do not feed the troll @malcolmg
The unique feature of the 2015 GE is that the governing party is not defending a majority and starts from a exceptionally weak position.
Ed as PM still not sure just providing current polling updates.
JackW is certain of the outcome 11 months out
Labour appears to have got over its EU14 UKIP hiccup but the Cons are still suffering and so their VI is down a bit.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/the-lib-dem-battleground-in-june-2014.html
My guess is that the Tory campaigning got people to focus on areas where Labour was particularly weak such as immigration and the EU and attention has again drifted to the fact the majority see nothing for them in this economic miracle. The Tories need some real wage growth this year to share the gains around a bit. Whether they will get enough of that is hard to say. I suspect that the increases for most will be too modest to be noticed, especially after such a long period of falling real wages. Mike's Tories most votes, Labour most seats bet looks better and better to me.
1979 is probably the closest parallel.
Now there's a thought ....
- living standards crisis
- youth unemployment
- NHS in crisis
- the top running away with it
Yet, what policies do they have to define these areas? Ain't happening.
I suspect that unemployment is going to be an election horror show for Labour, with constituency-by-constituency stats showing the before (Labour) and after (Coalition) on unemployment.
Labour, the party for unemployment; the Coalition delivering work for the workers.....
On the NHS - didn't Ed tell us it was going to die about three years ago? The dead on trolleys in the street and all that? It looks more and more as if Labour's election campaign will be reduced to Making Shit Up.
Asked who has been the best Labour leader only 2% name Miliband, half as many as for Neil Kinnock, the loser of the 1992 election, and just 1% ahead of Michael Foot, who was beaten by a landslide in 1983.
To some extent the story is a familiar one, of Miliband suffering low personal ratings. Our survey goes further. It finds widespread disappointment among Labour’s own supporters:
• More Labour voters regard him as weak than strong
• One in three don’t think he is up to the job of prime minister
• Half of them think Labour would do better with a different leader
Set against the two Eds, Gordon looks like an economic Colossus striding across the world stage. If UKIP can stay relevant to next May, it is not at all fanciful to propose that Labour could poll a lower % share than in 2010. Although my own take is they will be up, but perhaps by not much more than a point.
But on the Right, as opposed to the Left!
And Thatcher was only popular (if she was .... the Tories lost votes, didn’t they?) because of the Falklands. Where’s Cameron’s military (or any other) success?
Therefore people will continue to use opinion polls to kick the government until far later in the electoral cycle than usual, Labour really are in trouble, especially with the libdem collapse eroding the electoral system "bias" in their favour.
IIRC correctly, Brown only "Saved the World" for about 5 seconds .... the time it took to correct himself at an hilarious PMQs.
However the fact remains that this close to the GE there is no historical or likely scenario that places Ed in Downing Street.
You also indicate that I "don't like him" - Ed. This is not true. Ed Miliband is a perfectly decent chap and on a personal basis I'm sure we'd get on fine. But political reality is different and harsh - he is a weak leader, seen as such by a huge majority of voters, including a substantial section of Labour supporters. Worse, the public perception is growing that he's "weird" - this is especially dangerous for Labour.
Neither am I partisan in the opprobrium I pour on political leaders. Here and outwith of PB I've commented vociferously that Hague, IDS and Howard would significantly fail to become PM. And words failed me on the miserable drunken "leadership" of Charles Kennedy who let himself and his party down by his overly close attachment to the bottle.
I used to be heavily criticized by Conservatives on PB. Now it is Labour. I dump on politicians as an equal opportunity realist. I call it as I see it. Take it or leave it.
JackW will not be for turning ....
I recall that phrase from somewhere ....
http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm
Why not crack one of your great jokes and have us all laughing in the aisles.
Here is the 5-poll moving average.
http://i982.photobucket.com/albums/ae304/Gadfly_bucket/5poll.jpg
Here is the 10-poll moving average.
http://i982.photobucket.com/albums/ae304/Gadfly_bucket/10poll.jpg
Next year they will focus on who they are actually choosing and Miliband, Balls, Harman and co with Brown still lurking on the backbenches are about as attractive a choice as Hague and Widdy were in 2001.
Just 21% think Ed Miliband is “up to the job” of running the country while 60% do not .
Some 46% of voters and 49% of Labour supporters say the party would be more likely to win the next election with someone else in charge.
Just 14% think Ed Miliband “looks and sounds like a prime minister” but 70% disagree.
Do not feed the troll @malcolmg
That Labour policy paper is right. The WWC is the soft underbelly, the Conservatives must attack here and explain exactly how Labour has abandoned them. Immigration is the key.
Given all our commemorative events this year, it's also worth remembering that it was the Red army that bled the most.
34% lab 35% tory 10%ld will mean Ed is PM ON UNS quite likely imho
I was derided on here by many.
Also most Tory PBers think crossover means a Tory Govt. Quite a few scenarios where that would not be the case even if it happens
It can be summed up by the old PB Golden Meme: Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
3.95 Conservative majority is too short.
Interesting - a very non-Ed Miliband person being bigged up to take on SLAB, and he is not even a MSP. Quite a vote of confidence in Ms Lamont, too, in the runup to Indyref, in which Trident and ME wars have yet to play their part.
SkyBet have evidently opened up shop this morning, promptly chopping further the odds against Luis Suarez leaving Liverpool this summer from 6/5 to evens.
Wouldn't it be better if people were moving to Labour because they thought we had wonderful policies and a fantastic leader? Sure. But Britain today is a deeply sceptical place about politics, and a lot of floating votes are anti-votes. The more the media write up election-related stories, the more it mobilises them. Tory voters would be the same, but they're still tempted by UKIP, while the WWC flirtation with UKIP seems to be fading.
The falling real incomes started in 2008, it might not be as productive line of attack for Labour as some suggest. Youth unemployment is a weakness for the Coalition, but is comparatively low compared to Greece and Spain.
Or will we run home to nurse?
In the vernacular it's "Dead Ed Bounce"
But fear not, Labour's turn will come - perhaps even as early as May 2020. Nothing is forever in the buggins turn of British politics.
Last winter was the warmest winter since Blair's last as PM.
Welcome back, Mr. Gadfly.
F1: pre-race piece with a tip here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/austria-pre-race.html
Incidentally, there's some divergence of opinion over tyre wear, namely that some say higher wear elsewhere might be handy in Austria because the circuit's low grip, others that high tyre wear for some teams (including Williams) could prove problematic.
If Hamilton had a DNF that'd be handy for both race and title betting. A Massa win would be splendid. Very hard to see how the race will go.
Owlragous
But it has always been the key to turnout amongst labour supporters and I suppose it always will be. Sigh.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10917142/Arrest-over-car-boot-full-of-voting-forms.html
Do not feed the troll @malcolmg
Factor in bias caused by UKIP piling up votes in safe tory seats (meaning equivalent UNS is 36.5, 34, 10) then you have Labour 21 short and only 2 seats ahead of tories with LDs only having 15 seats meaning Cameron would struggle on with DUP support and a minority government until calling a further election (which Lab can ill afford) at a time of his choosing.
Sorry but the Libdem collapse has eroded the electoral bias in favour of labour and ruined Milipedes 35% strategy.
Not sure that Antifrank is right in putting so much weight on current betting odds to forecast results in 2015. I feel that what is happening on the ground is far more important.
Has anybody here considered the possibility that the Lib Dem performance in the Euros and in Newark were so dire, that lots of recently inactive people will now be motivated to return to the fray?
Topping has also noted how the bacon etc attacks on Ed have been sinister, unedifying borderline bullying that may even backfire.
I finally saw Ed's very gallant joke about the sarnie to the fragrant Penny Mordaunt the other day as part of his Queen's Speech response. More proof that Ed can be witty and self-deprecating. He had the whole house laughing - a great response that again gives the lie to the nasty, desperate schoolyard taunts we see in the media, and on here, from time to time.