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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE15 the result in Watford is set once again to be the most interesting, most argued about and most bet upon
Back at GE2010 we had many arguments and discussions about what would happen in Watford which LAB was defending. Jack W, for instance, argued strongly that this was a Lib Dem gain while I put my money on the Tories. You can see the result by clicking the GE10 tab on the interactive chart.
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In the last couple of days it has been reported in Twitter and elsewhere that the parents of 14-year-old diver Matthew Dixon have not been able to get tickets to watch his competition in the Commonwealth Games.
What sort of a monstrous and insensitive ticketing system is it that does not give priority to the close family and/or friends of the competitors themselves? It seems that they had to take their luck in the mad scramble of the general public in trying to get tickets.
Q - Will England's imminent exit from the World Cup and the resulting increase in the "feel bad" factor affect the polls?
A - Quite possibly.
Somewhat more generously, but not overly so, is the 132/1 net available from Betfair against the same highly unlikely outcome.
Now, if we'd lost a semi on penalties to the Germans.....
For me the 2010 Watford result remains an enigma wrapped around a bacon sandwich within an empty bottle of single malt.
Ok .... onwards and upwards. What of next May. Watford is one of the "JackW Dozen" that presently is listed as TCTC - Too Close To Call - Fewer than 500 votes between Con and LibDems with Labour a little over 1000 away - Certainly a three way marginal.
However if the extremely popular four times elected LibDem mayor, Dorothy Thornhill, decides to run then she will become favourite for the seat and the present odds on the yellow peril grabbing the seat will look handsome.
Something for everyone there, apart from UKIP, and a fascinating seat for PB to lick its collective chops over.
As a good European I would support our Teutonic neighbours but it would be an uncomfortable forced choice.
It would seem sensible for the Watford LDs to pick their mayor, but hard to see any LD gains on current polling.
A "Smithson" you ask - Wat Dat Dare ?? .... A "Smithson" is a huge odds bet that gives you an unexpected run for your money as a trading or outright winner.
There is some speculation that the term originated on PB in the mists of time when some wily, follicularly challenged former LibDem councillor threw his sandals in the air and they fell face down among the beard trimmings upon a report of a little known Chicago political organiser running for US president.
Some say this version of events are the deranged meandering of a vindictive Scottish noble of extraordinary good looks .... others are less generous and say it's just the bollo*ks.
Either way, what we do know is that the original Smithson never talks about it ....
You are Dorothy Thornhill.
If the tories are in fact ahead, and I still regard this sort of polling as largely untested, Labour should be worried and I can start being smug about my more efficient tory vote theory. We will have to see. Subject to this very popular local mayor running, however, the working assumption must surely be that the Lib Dem vote is going to at least halve in seats like this. As Mike pointed out recently 2015 is going to be all about defence and hanging on by the Lib Dems.
This all looks rather familiar - Does Chappers of the Daily Mail read PB.com?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2663105/Tories-15-seats-Lib-Dems-general-election-More-pressure-Clegg-major-polls-findings.html
It's always fun to be a friend of Dorothy on the odd occasion in June !!
http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/
For betting purposes a very close watch should be kept on the white smoke coming from the Watford LibDem Constituency office chimney.
Does anybody really believe that their vote is down by only a quarter in this particular seat which they don't even hold? Unless their vote is going below zero in some constituencies I really don't see how this is possible. The Ashcroft poll needs to be treated with considerable caution which is a pity because I could have done with some cheering up after last night.
Didn't they realise it would be swamped by the news from Brazil?
Note the large UKIP slice. Is this squeezable and if it is, who will benefit? As another_Dave speculated yesterday, my hunch is that any squeeze of the Kippers would probably favour the Conservatives most. 15/8 is still good value on the blue team in this constituency, in my opinion.
@standardnews: Who is the mystery Scotsman who joined Uruguay fans to revel in England's defeat? http://t.co/PyGzjoLgZP http://t.co/SkSIeeAS2e
They've continued to win the Mayoralty with ease. Their vote could hold up well here, even as they're knocked down to 3-4% in seats like Hertsmere and Broxbourne.
What I think is that you'd blame Mr Salmond if a magpie defecated on your car bonnet.
Just a bit of fun guys and gals .... or perhaps not !!
Fancy some 125/1 or even some 7/1 for those less ambitious ....
Are you an England fan, totally deluded or a regular contributor to nice Nigerian financial institutions ?? .... then listen up PBers
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Has the England football gloom been overdone and is there some realistic betting prospects there ?? .... I'd say yes.
The essentials are clear.
The only way for England to qualify from their group (now 7/1 widely available) is for Italy to win both their remaining games (by only 1 clear goal over Costa Rica) of which they are clear favourites and England must beat Costa Rica by 2 clear goals. Clearly a bigger Italian win will reduce England's necessity to beat Costa Rica to a single goal. England would qualify on goal difference over both Uruguay and Costa Rica.
If England do qualify in this fashion the widely available 125/1 on them winning the tournament will tumble and both a trading bet and outright win looks rather amusing.
I'm having a nibble on both bets .... if you fancy the same get in before the Italy/Costa Rica match later today.
I yield to your experience when it comes to political bets, but do you really think that Italy will try too hard in the last match if they already have six points? I can see them fielding the reserves and cruising.
If he has travelled halfway across the world to oppose England, that's taking ABE to pathological levels. But I imagine he lives in Uruguay: you wouldn't make that trip from Scotland on your own.
Germany Vs Argentina would be an easy choice. I'd far prefer a German victory.
Edited extra bit: Wimbledon draws today. Not sure what time.
Edited extra bit 2: and P1's in under 40 minutes.
Unless we do a Scotland and save our best performances for when it's already too late.
We've discussed this conundrum before and neither of us are any the wiser.
Accordingly I finally opting for a combination of Smithson sorcery, Ave it trickery and the sheer cussedness of the voters - the basta*rds !!
I was amazed I could lay off my stake for no loss (And half stake profit should we win) at Betfair AFTER we'd lost the Italy match.
The 140-1 is pure crackers, assuming we are 12-1 to get out the group right now then that implies 21-2 or so to win it after that which is far too short.
The England price last night was completely wrong too - win, lose or draw that match we should never have started sub 2.1... I made it a 2-1 all round affair at best for England.
A real mug surge on England throughout.
On thread, sorry Mike, I know that Watford is important to you, nearly as important as Bedford just up the road, but while it may be much betted upon, I don't give a toss about the seat as long as its a Tory hold. There are far more genuinely interesting seats like Argyll which is a genuine 4 way marginal and on current form could be won by any one of the 4 main parties (of which one is not UKIP but the SNP).
I gather last night saw both a Tory hold and a Tory gain in the council by-elections. A sure sign Ed the Bland one is heading for Downing Street.
It hasn't really happened so far this year (most of my F1 bets have been short odds) but it's quite disconcerting when you look at the odds and think that they're just plain wrong, and by quite a margin.
At the moment I think the markets still haven't got to grips with the fact that the Ferrari's pretty poor at most places. Alonso's third favourite (after the Red Bulls) to be winner with Hamilton/Rosberg. Alonso's a great driver, but the Ferrari engine's not great, the car doesn't have the best chassis and the updates appear to improve pace but be unreliable.
McLaren are also poor, but (following the 2013 calamity) people seem to have cottoned on to that more swiftly.
Force India and Williams will probably be the most interesting teams to watch in Austria.
http://www.watford.gov.uk/ccm/content/legal-and-democratic/elections/results---european-2014--22-may.en
That said it would be my main concern with landing the bet, but at 7/1 it's a sporting chance and worth a few shillings investment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27907358
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-27920188
Bizarrely, as I noted last night, even an Italian win this evening doesn't guarantee the Azzuri qualification either. They could still lose their final game and perceivably depart on goal difference. That's why we are somewhat paradoxically hoping for a narrow Italian victory tonight - we need to make sure they have something to play for on Tuesday. If they hammer Costa tonight we are ostensibly better off, but as Italy will be as good as through they may not try as hard against Uruguay.
By kick off they were 3.7
That said, the money didn't make up for the pain. I have no idea why we didn't just settle for the draw. A draw and we would have been in a decent position. Sheer naiveity.
Strangely Suarez actually helped England with his absence from their Costa Rica match. The latters 2:0 win has assisted England in their goal difference path to qualification.
Of course it may all turn to dust as early as this evening if Italy fail to win but the 7/1 seems to me to worth the chance.
He stopped Watford Football club from going into administration in 2009.
This led to a halo effect for the Tories in 2010.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/w/watford/8418667.stm
"The average British person says the people they see in their daily lives are a third attractive, half alright and 16% ugly
According to economists, physically attractive women and men earn more than plainer-looking ones, with looks having a bigger impact on wages than even education. But while this can be established fairly reliably, how can we tell how many people are actually good looking?
A new YouGov survey asks British people to estimate what percentage of the people they see out and about in their daily lives are attractive, and what percentage are not.
Taken as an average of all the responses, British people feel as though a third (34%) of the people they are surrounded by are attractive – 8% drop dead gorgeous, 26% attractive but not supremely so."
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/06/19/britain-one-third-good-looking/
With this spell of warm weather, and as my office window overlooks the beach, that rating for the young ladies getting a nigh all-over tan must be a bit low. But overweight people on the prom must be over 50%.
Another thing that 'helps' England is the nature of their defeats, both by the narrowest margin and with a couple of goals in their column.
Hmm. Ben Thingummyjig's doing it, as usual, and it might be Tony Jardin as guest pundit.
Costa Rica to defeat the Cosa Nostra.
Switzerland to defeat the Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys.
Honduras to defeat Ecuador. Also gone for a red card in this match.
If Italy defeat Costa Rica 1:0 - or by one goal in any result - not an unheard of result the table will be :
Italy - 6pts +2 GD
Costa R - 3pts +1GD
Uruguay - 3pts -1GD
England - 0pts -2GD
A Uruguay two goal win over Italy and any Costa Rica win over England will see Italy out. Uruguay must better the Costa Rica result to progress.
@Mike_Fabricant: I could never appear on a discussion prog with @y_alibhai I would either end up with a brain haemorrhage or by punching her in the throat
If all three of the main parties do lose vote share, then you would think the Tories would be most likely to hold the seat, because they start with a lead.
How close to the top do UKIP need to be to think of it as a four-way marginal? Is 10% the usual margin?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/lord-reid-reported-over-no-advert-in-newspaper.24537538
It seems like a given for both the Coalition parties, but even Labour have only been a few points away from their 2010 result in a couple of polls in June.
Are there any bets on it? Perhaps betting on UKIP > 15% is the obvious proxy for it.
In general elections you do NOT vote for a party. You do NOT vote for a PM.
You put your X in the box on the ballot paper for an individual, a person, to be your MP.
Looking at elections from the narrow party angle can lead to wrong conclusions.
Fair enough.
It's pure mathematics over patriotic despair.
The simple truth is that a narrow Italian win this evening means it's game on for a grandstand finish on Tuesday. The first game to be watched simultaneously on two screens? Presumably ITV will show one match and BBC the other, in that scenario?
1. The Lib Dems will lose more votes in seats like Watford than predicted by this Ashcroft poll.
2. Because the Lib Dems will retain more votes locally where they are strong, such as in Watford, they will poll more votes nationally than currently predicted by the national opinion polls.
Add in a huge number of lost deposits - probably most of those where the Lib Dems are currently third or lower [more than half the seats] and probably a fair number where they are a poor second in safe seats [such as Witney and Liverpool Walton - and it does not seem hard to square that particular circle with option number 2.
The matter was resolved in part when a local lady who claims to talk to elves, mediated and they agreed to the road so long as their chapel was carefully moved and put elsewhere
“I have no words for how much I loathe you,” said journalist Yasmin Alibhai-Brown to Spectator columnists Rod Liddle - who refered to her as the “faux liberal leftie only concerned with her own economic self-interest" - ding dong..!
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/19/rod-liddle-and-yasmin-alibhai-brown-have-outrageously-fierly-clash-on-channel-4-news_n_5512728.html
Bulletin out this morning. Key findings as follows:
• This is the first estimate of May 2014 (financial year 2014/15). Estimates for the financial year 2013/14 have also been updated. Both estimates will continue to be revised as more data becomes available.
• For the financial year 2013/14 public sector net borrowing excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions, the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan and the transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund was £107.0 billion. This was £8.1 billion lower than the same period in 2012/13, when it was £115.1 billion.
• During the financial year 2013/14, £31.1 billion was transfered from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund to HM Treasury. Of this amount, £12.2 billion impacted on net borrowing.
• For the financial year 2013/14, public sector net borrowing excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSNB ex) was £94.9 billion. This was £14.2 billion higher than in 2012/13, when it was £80.7 billion.
• In May 2014, public sector net borrowing excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions, the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan and the transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund was £13.3 billion. This was £0.7 billion higher than in May 2013, when it was £12.6 billion.
• In May 2014, there were no transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund to HM Treasury. In May 2013, £3.9 billion was transferred which impacted on net borrowing. May 2013 was also affected by receipts from the Swiss Tax agreement which totalled £0.9 billion.
• In May 2014, public sector net borrowing excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSNB ex) was £13.3 billion. This was £4.6 billion higher than in May 2013, when it was £8.7 billion.
• The central government net cash requirement for the financial year 2013/14 was £75.4 billion, £29.6 billion lower than in 2012/13, when it was £105.0 billion.
• At the end of May 2014, Public sector net debt excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSND ex) was £1,284.5 billion, equivalent to 76.1% of gross domestic product (GDP).
• While the headline numbers presented continue to be on an ESA 1995 basis, this months bulletin includes tables presenting the impact of changes related to the implementation of ESA 2010 methods and the PSF review, which will take place in September 2014.
Should Italy win by two goals tonight and England win 1:0 on Tuesday then Costa and England will both be 3pts -1GD.
The next determinant is goals scored in which case the scope of the respective wins plays out and after that it is the result between the team in which case England would progress assuming Uruguay lose.
Simple ....
http://www.conmebol.com/en/content/tie-breaker-rules-group-stage-2014-world-cup-brazil
If the improbable is to happen, it's more likely to happen through Costa Rica beating Italy than through Italy beating Costa Rica. Then England can progress by beating Costa Rica and either Italy beating Uruguay or Uruguay beating Italy. Since Costa Rica would already have qualified by that point (they couldn't be overtaken by both Uruguay and Italy because they're playing each other), the England match would be of much less significance to them and so England would have a better chance.
@PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 36 (-1); Cons 34 (+1); LD 8 (-1); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 9 (+1) Tables http://t.co/dm2h1MwiGJ
If CR beat Italy and either Uruguay or Italy win or draw then CR will have 6 pts and Uruguay or Italy either 4 or 6 pts.
England can only progress if Italy win both their remaining matches.
100% Yes. And this is what they tell us every time we vaguely care to listen. Protests of millions in favour of Assad: www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9gqq-FFgJM#t=264
This documentary on the genesis of the Syria conflict will reward a watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwv7JXgPxLI Sadly the man who speaks first was murdered by insurgents recently.
as they play each other
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/06/20/formula-e-and-formula-1/
Edited extra bit: cheers for that answer, Mr. Eagles. It can't be considered up to date enough, then.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/ukip-vote-percentage