Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ICM poll for the Guardian is out
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ICM poll for the Guardian is out
As we can see, there’s not a lot for the three established Westminster parties to cheer about in this poll, whilst Labour will delighted to regain the lead with the Gold Standard of British Polling, both their lead and their share of the vote, isn’t that impressive, by contrast, in June 2009, David Cameron’s Tories were polling 39% and had a 12% lead over Labour.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
It's the usual, you write something, proof read it, then post.......then reach for the edit button
Awful for Labour.
Even worse for the Tories.
Unspeakably bad for the Liberals. *
* On this point, I will again ask the likes of Stodge, Corporeal and Sir Mark Sr what on earth it will take to actually a) kick out the Cleggster or b) pull the plug on the Coalition in the hope of a electoral dividend.
10% with the pollster that is by far the most favourable to the Yellows is surely cut-and-run material? They have nothing left to lose.
@GuidoFawkes: Ed Smashes His Negative Polling Record, Slumps Below Clegg |
Osborne’s Shock Positive Approval Rating Grows: http://t.co/oLckAFDprC
"Growers trying to thwart attempts to uproot cannabis plantations have machine guns and rocket-propelled grenade"
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/17/albanian-cannabis-growers-800-police-battle-lazarat
But hey...
So, UKIP are not disappearing up PB's arsehole, as was trumpeted here only yesterday.
I can now report that UKIP are now conducting preliminary Parliamentary assessments, for possible candidates. Thing will be a changing.
1) do you want to send all the immigrants back home?
2) are you currently facing charges for electoral malpractice?
And if so, what will the preferred answers be?
Con 271, Lab 324, LD 26, UKIP Zero.
Lab short by 2.
Whats Labours excuse? Answer-Ed's crap.
Lab 321
Con 269
LD 30
Others 30
Lab short by 5.
Algeria to defeat Belgium, Mexico to defeat Brazil and South Korea to defeat Russia.
LD
2013: 15%, 13%, 15%, 15%, 11%, 12%
2014: 14%, 10%, 12%, 12%, 13%, 10%
Con
2013: 33%, 29%, 31%, 32%, 28%, 29%
2014: 32%, 34%, 35%, 32%, 33%, 31%
Lab
2013: 38%, 41%, 39%, 38%, 34%, 36%
2014: 35%, 38%, 38%, 37%, 31%, 32%
UKIP
2013: 6%, 9%, 7%, 9%, 18%, 12%
2014: 10%, 11%, 9%, 11%, 15%, 16%
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/21/icm-poll-data-labour-conservatives
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
Besides, too many senior Lib Dem MPs have dipped their hands in the coalition's blood. The Lib Dems have little practical option other than holding their heads erect and whistling a happy tune.
Belgium 1.37
Algeria 11
Draw 5.4
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.112173630&exp=e
2013 : 5 12 8 6 6 7
2014 : 3 4 3 5 -2 1
Labour are rooked.
Edit: Though the ICM does have England only figures as part of the sub-sample aggregate.
Surely they aren't lining up to support LD's again in 2015 as they did in 2010
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/30/one-year-to-go-how-do-dave-and-ed-compare-to-their-predecessors/
Ed is great!
Him playing was the reason I backed Algeria.
@nicholaswatt: Chinese premier comes out against Scottish independence: we welcome a strong prosperous + united UK
That being said, I find it deeply amusing that the people calling for Clegg's departure (and an end to the coalition) to reinvigorate the LibDems happen to be the not entirely disinterested Labour supporters.
LOL, whoever wrote that does not have ed's best interests at heart.
And that's the answer to Labour loyalists claiming that Sungate, baconsandwichgate, etcgate have no effect because they don't show up in the next day's yougov VI. It's that gradual firming up effect we are looking for.
On this we both agree. However, I suspect that Cable would ensure breakout to the downside, resulting in Charles Kennedy and Alistair Carmicheal being the only LibDem MPs returned to the House of Commons.
Which would be good for my bet on next LibDem leader, I admit.
Surely the loss of Portsmouth South would be laid at the door of its departing MP and his exhaustively explored failings?
You can make an argument for having his picture taken, you can make an argument for him not having his picture taken.
It takes a special sort of crapness to have your picture taken, then apologise for it. It just looks so weak.
FWIW I would expect having Nick "let's sign a pledge" Clegg in charge of the Lib Dems during the election will seriously undermine any campaign promises they make.
Margaret Thatcher was suddenly and shocking defenestrated and never overcame her bitterness; but even as her mental powers failed she could take comfort in her achievements. Tony Blair's faculties are not clouded by old age but he is confused and perhaps a little frightened by the contempt of millions of people who once voted for him. It is a far, far worse fate than Mrs Thatcher's.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100276727/margaret-thatcher-didnt-mind-being-hated-tony-blair-does-very-much-indeed/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Goerge Osborne eats a burger. Could end his career.
Ed eats a bacon sarnie (sort of). Will be forgotten by lunch time
Incidentally, the Portsmouth South by-election was held almost exactly 30 years ago:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portsmouth_South_by-election,_1984
USA
China
EU
Pope
most of Scotland
In favour:
Pat Kane
When the great and exasperated British public really start to focus on the question of who they want to be PM of this country this reading is going to lead into very serious consequences for Labour. They should be worrying about whether Brown did in fact reach rock bottom in 2010.
If this was Labour's election to lose you begin to wonder if they have lost it. The tories might well win by default.
Ed has chased populism with a vengeance, played political games at every opportunity and pandered to every conceivable vested interest. He looks like a muppet.
For national assembly
As for Sean T's Q re Bobafett's claim the ICM poll was worse for the Tories, I assumed that it was irony or trolling. Ironic if Sean's fallen for someone's trolling I suppose you could say!!
To be 1% behind with ICM with 11 months ago is a pretty good position to be in.
Sure, Con led by 2% with ICM last month but that has to be considered an outlier (or at least a partial outlier).
That is his great failing and it applies regardless of whether or not you think his views on Iraq were right or wrong. Indeed, if he really believed that the UK should go to war in Iraq in 20013 he had an overriding duty to argue that case honestly and be fully transparent now about his discussions with the US.
Labour 1997 - 2010 was all spin and lies, which far outweighed their achievements. For all their distancing themselves from Blair, I don't think Milliband's Labour has fundamentally changed.
"Awful for Labour.
Even worse for the Tories."
Unless it was helpfully highlighting for everyone that 32>31?
Labourites are desperately hoping Clegg stays. He is the gift that keeps on giving for them, locking up the Red Liberals. My queries are non-partisan – I simply wonder what the sense in keeping him actually is?
Cash the feck out
There is at least one potential letout in that statement. And you might care to recall that it was Scotland, under the SNP, which got the pandas last time.
I have read that get-out clause innumerable times on here, you won't believe how many.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/liverpool-set-make-move-tottenhams-3202065
PS You are over-posting again; makes you look rattled.
http://iainmacwhirter2.blogspot.co.uk/2011/04/even-snp-dont-believe-their-polling.html
David Cameron does not hold the kind of lead over Ed Miliband that Alex Salmond held over Ian Gray, which should give any Conservative supporter inclined to cling to the importance of leadership ratings pause for thought.