Aren't the memberships of all the major parties declining? It'll be interesting to see whether UKIP can maintain their growth and hang onto those who joined just recently.
UKIP did have a major surge circa 2005 and reached 28,000 then lost half those in the following years and were at 13,442 in 2009. The bulk of the decline happened in 2006 when they dropped to 16,000 in the Dec 2006 Accounts. .
Well this is interesting news, I wonder how it plays into interest rate expectations. I would have thought raising interest rates with already falling inflation wouldn't be contemplated.
The paradox could be that part of the reason for the fall in inflation is the strengthening pound which is rising due to expectations that interest rates will soon rise.
There is absolutely no sign of any inflationary pressure at all, except for the deluge of foreign money that is pouring into the London housing market and rippling outwards from there.
If you were being generous to Osborne you would say this is the evidence that his strategy is working - government austerity enabling the Bank of England to keep interest rates low. Alternatively, he is a very luck boy - which is almost as good.
A couple of interesting items: 1. From Mehdi quoting The Times: "Membership in Tory marginal seats continues to plummet with local parties complaining of 'hard work with no political reward', according to figures from the Electoral Commission. Marginal constituencies lost an average of 8.6 per cent of their membership and 21 per cent of their income between the end of 2012 and the end of 2013. This tallies with a bleak national picture. Last year the Tory party revealed it now had 134,000 constituency members, down from the 253,600 who voted in the leadership poll that David Cameron won."
I wonder how much of that membership churn since 2005 is members dying off. I'd bet it's a lot.
You don't think that ~20% of 2010 Con voters switching to UKIP chimes with a decline in party membership?
Of course, but I think there's also a bunch of less obvious and more interesting reasons, like death of members and the decline of Conservative clubs.
I would guess that about 10,000 of the new UKIP members are ex Conservative members.
Certainly good if you own property, house prices rose by 9.9% average this year. If you are an NHS manager, your wages kept up with house prices, and overtopped inflation, If you are a nurse? Who the hell cares, there are plenty of third world ones available. 1% is way to generous for trash like them.
A couple of interesting items: 1. From Mehdi quoting The Times: "Membership in Tory marginal seats continues to plummet with local parties complaining of 'hard work with no political reward', according to figures from the Electoral Commission. Marginal constituencies lost an average of 8.6 per cent of their membership and 21 per cent of their income between the end of 2012 and the end of 2013. This tallies with a bleak national picture. Last year the Tory party revealed it now had 134,000 constituency members, down from the 253,600 who voted in the leadership poll that David Cameron won."
I wonder how much of that membership churn since 2005 is members dying off. I'd bet it's a lot.
You don't think that ~20% of 2010 Con voters switching to UKIP chimes with a decline in party membership?
Of course, but I think there's also a bunch of less obvious and more interesting reasons, like death of members and the decline of Conservative clubs.
I would guess that about 10,000 of the new UKIP members are ex Conservative members.
Members dying shouldn't be a problem if one is recruiting new people. The Conservatives' problem is that very few people have joined in recent years.
Around six in ten workers will miss out on the full £155-a-week new flat-rate state pension when it is introduced in 2016, Money Mail can reveal.
Despite Government promises that anyone who stayed in employment their whole working life would be able to get the full state payout, official figures show that just 250,000 men and women will receive the maximum weekly amount.
In total, 58 per cent of workers retiring in 2016 will get less than £155. More than two decades after the scheme is introduced, one in five will still fail to qualify for the full weekly payout.
The revelation will be a blow to millions of people in their early 60s who have no time to build up extra qualifying years for the new pension.
The worst affected will be women, and anyone who spent years employed by a company that allowed them to save into a final-salary pension. They won’t get the full payout because they were allowed to pay reduced National Insurance contributions as they 'contracted out' of the second state pension.
...
Now, under the new flat-rate pension, anyone who paid this lower rate will have a deduction made for the years they were contracted out. A hideously complicated equation will be made which involves calculating a ‘Foundation’ amount of pension someone could claim, and then deducting contracted-out years from this sum.
Essentially, it could mean someone who worked for 35 years, but spent 20 years at a company that had a final-salary scheme, being left with just 15 years of qualifying National Insurance contributions for the new pension. How much this would reduce the full £155-a-week pension is not yet clear.
He paid the lower rate plus his private pension pot was decimated in his divorce. I'm surprised this managed to slip through without much coverage.
The only thing that will shoot UKIP's fox is a referendum actually taking place.
Or the conservative leadership turning genuinely skeptical. Merkel is going to choose Juncker, showing that Germany considers Britain to be not much more than a noisy nuisance.
Cameron will have to do something.
Mr Hannan says that Mr Cameron's objection to Mr Juncker is not that he's too pro-EU (all the candidates are), it's that he's honest about it. He won't pretend that the meaningless changes presented by Mr Cameron as a successful renegotiation are anything but meaningless.
The only thing that will shoot UKIP's fox is a referendum actually taking place.
Or the conservative leadership turning genuinely skeptical. Merkel is going to choose Juncker, showing that Germany considers Britain to be not much more than a noisy nuisance.
Cameron will have to do something.
If the UK left the EU, or a British government were to announced its intention to leave, then I think UKIP's fox would be shot.
Otherwise, I think it's probably here for the long-term.
Latest EU referendum polling from YouGov has STAY moving from a 2% to an 8% lead.
STAY 44%+3
LEAVE 36%-3
Broken sleazy EU on the rise.
Rises to 57/22 in favour of stay if DC renegotiates successfully.
What are the figures going to be if he fails to negotiate successfully?
That's the question that matters.
55/24 ?
If Cameron announced some cosmetic change as a success, and was being slagged off by his own side and the Conservative Press, I suspect he'd be in difficulty.
They won’t get the full payout because they were allowed to pay reduced National Insurance contributions as they 'contracted out' of the second state pension.
Nothing unreasonable about that. Money then instead of money now; a bargain they knew they were striking at the time.
Certainly good if you own property, house prices rose by 9.9% average this year. If you are an NHS manager, your wages kept up with house prices, and overtopped inflation, If you are a nurse? Who the hell cares, there are plenty of third world ones available. 1% is way to generous for trash like them.
Only prices in London rose by more than the mean of 9.9%, and the halo effect seems to have dragged up prices in the South East (+8.9%) and East (+8.5%). The next highest increase was a less dramatic 6.8%.
The average house price increase for the UK (excluding London) would be interesting to know.
I am glad that the Chancellor is fortunate, because if he were unfortunate and inflation was still a lot higher it would be bad for everyone. It's not like I support him or his policies, but I don't want to see the economy crash and burn just for the pleasure of seeing him ejected from No. 11.
As it happens I do own part of my house, with the rest owned by the building society, but I'd much prefer house prices to simply stay stable, rather than go dramatically up or down. I think it would be good for the country - as well as my peace of mind - if house prices would simply stay roughly the same in nominal terms for the next twenty years or so.
They won’t get the full payout because they were allowed to pay reduced National Insurance contributions as they 'contracted out' of the second state pension.
Nothing unreasonable about that. Money then instead of money now; a bargain they knew they were striking at the time.
Yes, but the politicians have said that they are ending the old system and introducing a flat-rate pension instead. It looks as though the only thing that has changed is the name.
Regardless of whether you think introducing a flat-rate pension to replace the old system was a good idea or not, words should still retain their meaning and a flat-rate pension should be exactly that.
Interesting. Re this sentence - "we need to quarantine the most virulent parts of the Islamic world, with its bloody borders, until the fires of jihadism have blown out."
Assuming for the moment that the fires of jihadism will blow out (and there is much in the history of Islam to suggest that violent struggle is the default mode rather than the exception), how do you propose we quarantine ourselves against the most virulent parts of the Islamic world which are in our country?
Regardless of whether you think introducing a flat-rate pension to replace the old system was a good idea or not, words should still retain their meaning and a flat-rate pension should be exactly that.
It is exactly that, but it is (very reasonably) being phased in so as not to disadvantage those who paid into SERPS and its various successors too much.
Unfortunately they seem keen to export their cult into our decadent Western homes and buses. Priority should be a zero tolerance of cultists in the Uk - certainly over foreign jollys to Iraq etc.
Unfortunately they seem keen to export their cult into our decadent Western homes and buses. Priority should be a zero tolerance of cultists in the Uk - certainly over foreign jollys to Iraq etc.
Would you support revoking the citizenship of British jihadists? Would "you can never come home" dissuade them from going, or would it - as I suspect - be a secondary concern for the righteous? (Ignoring the impossibility under EU law to do such a thing)
Unfortunately they seem keen to export their cult into our decadent Western homes and buses. Priority should be a zero tolerance of cultists in the Uk - certainly over foreign jollys to Iraq etc.
Would you support revoking the citizenship of British jihadists? Would "you can never come home" dissuade them from going, or would it - as I suspect - be a secondary concern for the righteous? (Ignoring the impossibility under EU law to do such a thing)
Or outsourcing jails to say Morocco - we feel you might be more comfortable in an Islamic state jail - you know to match your beliefs.
I'd be more concerned with those staying behind to plot attacks here. If someone wants to go and get shot in Syria- then good luck to you.
Regardless of whether you think introducing a flat-rate pension to replace the old system was a good idea or not, words should still retain their meaning and a flat-rate pension should be exactly that.
It is exactly that, but it is (very reasonably) being phased in so as not to disadvantage those who paid into SERPS and its various successors too much.
It is yes. I can only apologise for being mislead by the Daily Mail, I should have known better.
Those who have paid contracted-out NI contributions will still qualify for a state pension under the old rules, though a naive reading of the new rules would suggest they'd get nothing.
It is yes. I can only apologise for being mislead by the Daily Mail, I should have known better.
To be fair to the Mail, their 'This is money' website, and the equivalent section of the print version, are amongst the best sources of personal finance information in the mass media.
The flaming Galahs. Right, kick every Aussie barman out of London.
For more than two centuries Australia and the UK have had a bond which has been unbreakable, despite being so far apart.
But a new poll suggests the two countries are no longer "best mates".
The survey found more than eight in 10 Australians see the relationship as important, with 28% saying it is very important.
However, when asked to choose Australia's "best friend" from a list of six countries around the world, the UK came third in popularity behind the United States and New Zealand
Around a third (35%) of Australians said the US was their "best friend", while just under a third (32%) nominated New Zealand.
Certainly good if you own property, house prices rose by 9.9% average this year.....
I can't quite see how I benefit from my property being worth more this year than it was last. OK, I have an asset that is now worth much more than I paid for it twenty-odd years ago (about five times as much) but in terms of actual spending power I am no better off. Indeed, once HMG gets round to sorting out the Council Tax, I will no doubt incur a much larger bill so I'll actually be worse off in terms of disposable income. Additionally, if we want our son to inherit the house when we shuffle-off, I am going to have to fork out hard cash to lawyers to set up some sort of trust as it would seem that that we are going to be in the inheritance tax bracket (considering I spent most of my working life in the service of HMtQ in relatively junior positions that shows the insanity of the IHT situation).
Ever rising house prices is not a good thing for anyone, except property speculators, and certainly not for the country as a whole.
Are we sure Lord Oakeshott doesn't have Carthiginian heritage, he really is inept at strategy and tactics.
Business Secretary Vince Cable is facing a probe into whether a controversial poll seen as a bid to undermine Nick Clegg's leadership should have been declared as a gift.
Edit: FYI I really don't consider this supposed breach as much, it won't register with the public, it's not a scandal that Cable has personally profited in pecuniary way.
Are we sure Lord Oakeshott doesn't have Carthiginian heritage, he really is inept at strategy and tactics.
Business Secretary Vince Cable is facing a probe into whether a controversial poll seen as a bid to undermine Nick Clegg's leadership should have been declared as a gift.
Edit: FYI I really don't consider this supposed breach as much, it won't register with the public, it's not a scandal that Cable has personally profited in pecuniary way.
You are correct it won't graze the public consciousness but it probably buries Vince forever.
Certainly good if you own property, house prices rose by 9.9% average this year.....
I can't quite see how I benefit from my property being worth more this year than it was last. OK, I have an asset that is now worth much more than I paid for it twenty-odd years ago (about five times as much) but in terms of actual spending power I am no better off. Indeed, once HMG gets round to sorting out the Council Tax, I will no doubt incur a much larger bill so I'll actually be worse off in terms of disposable income. Additionally, if we want our son to inherit the house when we shuffle-off, I am going to have to fork out hard cash to lawyers to set up some sort of trust as it would seem that that we are going to be in the inheritance tax bracket (considering I spent most of my working life in the service of HMtQ in relatively junior positions that shows the insanity of the IHT situation).
Ever rising house prices is not a good thing for anyone, except property speculators, and certainly not for the country as a whole.
Wholeheartedly agree. Inflation of 9% or 17% or whatever ludicrous figure applies today to London property is not a good thing. There is no increase in "value". And if prices are stratospherically high who can afford to buy the houses?
My house is - apparently - worth 10 times what I paid for it 24 years ago. Yet if I sold it and divided the entire proceeds between my 3 children they still wouldn't be able to buy a similar house in a similar area. And we're not talking mansions here with drives and endless gardens but a bog standard Victorian terraced house, originally built as servants' quarters for the high and mighty.
Stable house prices with value increasing only because the owner has actually added some real value (a new room for instance) is the Holy Grail of British politics.
The flaming Galahs. Right, kick every Aussie barman out of London.
Around a third (35%) of Australians said the US was their "best friend", while just under a third (32%) nominated New Zealand.
That would leave 3 Kiwis working at every bar between Hammersmith and Shoreditch.
I like the Kiwis, they are nice people, and you can tell they aren't descended from criminals.
I like Kiwis too, but as bar staff they are decidedly inferior to their Australian cousins. The latter seem to have a genetic disposition for bar work (and dentistry). So chucking out the Aussie bar staff would cause chaos in central London and the Home Counties. Do you know how long it takes to get served in some City pubs now? Replace the Aussies with Serbo-Croats or whatever and the whole place would just gum up.
The flaming Galahs. Right, kick every Aussie barman out of London.
Around a third (35%) of Australians said the US was their "best friend", while just under a third (32%) nominated New Zealand.
That would leave 3 Kiwis working at every bar between Hammersmith and Shoreditch.
I like the Kiwis, they are nice people, and you can tell they aren't descended from criminals.
I like Kiwis too, but as bar staff they are decidedly inferior to their Australian cousins. The latter seem to have a genetic disposition for bar work (and dentistry). So chucking out the Aussie bar staff would cause chaos in central London and the Home Counties. Do you know how long it takes to get served in some City pubs now? Replace the Aussies with Serbo-Croats or whatever and the whole place would just gum up.
I don't know why Southerners go to bars, you don't have water down your booze.
Mass surveillance of social media, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, and even Google searches, is permissible because they are "external communications", according to the government's most senior security official.
In the first detailed justification of the UK's online interception policy, Charles Farr, director general of the Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism, has defended the way in which it sidesteps the need for individual search warrants.
Mass surveillance of social media, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, and even Google searches, is permissible because they are "external communications", according to the government's most senior security official.
In the first detailed justification of the UK's online interception policy, Charles Farr, director general of the Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism, has defended the way in which it sidesteps the need for individual search warrants.
A great shame it was his girlfriend rather than him who lost his job. Not just content with justifying trawling through our comms, he thinks it ok to engage with the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups who provide so much of the ideological justification for jihadist groups, not realising - or possibly not caring - that this type of frankly colonial-style engagement is one of the reasons why there are so many jihadis that need to be tracked and monitored.
The flaming Galahs. Right, kick every Aussie barman out of London.
Around a third (35%) of Australians said the US was their "best friend", while just under a third (32%) nominated New Zealand.
That would leave 3 Kiwis working at every bar between Hammersmith and Shoreditch.
I like the Kiwis, they are nice people, and you can tell they aren't descended from criminals.
New Zealand - Kipper Nirvana. England of the 1960's.
Late sixties possibly - the days when Watney's Red and other fizzy, pasteurised piss was pushed as beer. They might have started to get their act together, as indeed has the USA, but Kiwi and Aussie beer is bloody awful stuff.
The flaming Galahs. Right, kick every Aussie barman out of London.
Around a third (35%) of Australians said the US was their "best friend", while just under a third (32%) nominated New Zealand.
That would leave 3 Kiwis working at every bar between Hammersmith and Shoreditch.
I like the Kiwis, they are nice people, and you can tell they aren't descended from criminals.
I like Kiwis too, but as bar staff they are decidedly inferior to their Australian cousins. The latter seem to have a genetic disposition for bar work (and dentistry). So chucking out the Aussie bar staff would cause chaos in central London and the Home Counties. Do you know how long it takes to get served in some City pubs now? Replace the Aussies with Serbo-Croats or whatever and the whole place would just gum up.
I don't know why Southerners go to bars, you don't have water down your booze.
Spoken as only a tee-total Northerner could. There are some very good beers from the North, but sometimes you have to work hard to find them. Last time I was in Liverpool I went to a city centre pub, just up the road from the nicely poshed-up dicks, and there was not a single real ale on sale! Was like stepping in a time machine and being transported back forty years.
I feel obliged to report this to my fellow island inhabitants-
Proposed Scottish constitution to include "a commitment to free university education"
I always thought Constitutions were process and framework documents not enshrined manifestos.
While I have not read the Indy White Paper - by all accounts it was a dangerous precedent.
Just before anyone gets too aerated - this is only an interim constitution (as we discussed on PB before, as I recall), to keep things going and legal in the first year or so of indy till the permanent constitution is developed and put into action.
Some very misleading headlines about it at the moment.
I will be drinking in Liverpool tonight and will have a cornucopia of real ales to choose from. How could you miss out the Baltic Fleet (Wapping), for instance? You must have been totally lost.
I did tip Basingstoke as a potential UKIP gain a while back, considering the MP is Maria Miller and given her expenses, you can see UKIP running an anti-sleaze candidate and doing well.
Mass surveillance of social media, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, and even Google searches, is permissible because they are "external communications", according to the government's most senior security official.
In the first detailed justification of the UK's online interception policy, Charles Farr, director general of the Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism, has defended the way in which it sidesteps the need for individual search warrants.
I dunno, Mr. Eagles, but I can't see what the problem is there. If I write you a letter then agents of HMG will need a warrant to intercept and read it. If I paint the contents of that letter on a wall in a public place then anyone who walks past can read it, including agents of HMG. There is a difference in my actions: the first is a private communication the second is a public declaration. Now transfer that to the Internet, email content = private (need a warrant), posts on public forums are, well public (anyone can read them).
The flaming Galahs. Right, kick every Aussie barman out of London.
Around a third (35%) of Australians said the US was their "best friend", while just under a third (32%) nominated New Zealand.
That would leave 3 Kiwis working at every bar between Hammersmith and Shoreditch.
I like the Kiwis, they are nice people, and you can tell they aren't descended from criminals.
I like Kiwis too, but as bar staff they are decidedly inferior to their Australian cousins. The latter seem to have a genetic disposition for bar work (and dentistry). So chucking out the Aussie bar staff would cause chaos in central London and the Home Counties. Do you know how long it takes to get served in some City pubs now? Replace the Aussies with Serbo-Croats or whatever and the whole place would just gum up.
I don't know why Southerners go to bars, you don't have water down your booze.
Spoken as only a tee-total Northerner could. There are some very good beers from the North, but sometimes you have to work hard to find them. Last time I was in Liverpool I went to a city centre pub, just up the road from the nicely poshed-up dicks, and there was not a single real ale on sale! Was like stepping in a time machine and being transported back forty years.
I used to live in London and I am used to drink in my mis-spent 20s.
Though I am a tee-totaller now, and have been for nearly five years (apart from the time, someone persuaded me to mix whisky and champagne)
Absolutely wonderful interview with Tory Baroness Trumpington on The Daily Politics, if you missed it, catch it on BBC Iplayer. She saved the best for last.
Twitter Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m Tory Baroness Trumpington describes Alex Salmond as a "madman, crazy in what he's trying to do..." #bbcdp
Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m Forsyth on Trumpington:"She has some very radical views..."
I will be drinking in Liverpool tonight and will have a cornucopia of real ales to choose from. How could you miss out the Baltic Fleet (Wapping), for instance? You must have been totally lost.
No not lost, just a person at a conference looking of a beer and diving into the nearest watering hole. I will confess that after I walked out of That pub in disgust I found one down the road that was very acceptable, both in ambiance and range of beers. I cannot remember the names of the pubs, but they were both within a few minutes walk of the poshed-up water front..
P.S. The curry in the curry house recommended by a local attendee was fecking dreadful. Nice restaurant in ambiance and service, but the food was appalling - tasteless crap but he thought it good.
Mass surveillance of social media, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, and even Google searches, is permissible because they are "external communications", according to the government's most senior security official.
In the first detailed justification of the UK's online interception policy, Charles Farr, director general of the Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism, has defended the way in which it sidesteps the need for individual search warrants.
I dunno, Mr. Eagles, but I can't see what the problem is there. If I write you a letter then agents of HMG will need a warrant to intercept and read it. If I paint the contents of that letter on a wall in a public place then anyone who walks past can read it, including agents of HMG. There is a difference in my actions: the first is a private communication the second is a public declaration. Now transfer that to the Internet, email content = private (need a warrant), posts on public forums are, well public (anyone can read them).
They're saying your email content is public and doesn't need a warrant.
I did tip Basingstoke as a potential UKIP gain a while back, considering the MP is Maria Miller and given her expenses, you can see UKIP running an anti-sleaze candidate and doing well.
They placed 2nd in the EU Parliament election, and nowhere in the locals.
Mass surveillance of social media, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, and even Google searches, is permissible because they are "external communications", according to the government's most senior security official.
In the first detailed justification of the UK's online interception policy, Charles Farr, director general of the Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism, has defended the way in which it sidesteps the need for individual search warrants.
I dunno, Mr. Eagles, but I can't see what the problem is there. If I write you a letter then agents of HMG will need a warrant to intercept and read it. If I paint the contents of that letter on a wall in a public place then anyone who walks past can read it, including agents of HMG. There is a difference in my actions: the first is a private communication the second is a public declaration. Now transfer that to the Internet, email content = private (need a warrant), posts on public forums are, well public (anyone can read them).
They're saying your email content is public and doesn't need a warrant.
Are they, Mr. Tokyo? Do please explain how the content of an email between myself and, say, Mr Eagles in Sheffield can, lawfully, be intercepted and read without a warrant?
18% HPI. Surely the government needs to look at curbing foreign or non-resident ownership of UK property. I feel incredibly lucky that I bought my flat when I did, a similar one on a road nearby just went for £135k more than I paid for mine in October. Foreign money in the London housing market is not an "investment" we want or need. If foreigners want to invest in London there are enough other projets they can look at. Time to introduce a 50% annual tax on non-resident ownership to get them out. We don't want or need corrupt Russian and Arab billionaires hoovering up prime property and blowing up a housing bubble.
The flaming Galahs. Right, kick every Aussie barman out of London.
Around a third (35%) of Australians said the US was their "best friend", while just under a third (32%) nominated New Zealand.
That would leave 3 Kiwis working at every bar between Hammersmith and Shoreditch.
I like the Kiwis, they are nice people, and you can tell they aren't descended from criminals.
I like Kiwis too, but as bar staff they are decidedly inferior to their Australian cousins. The latter seem to have a genetic disposition for bar work (and dentistry). So chucking out the Aussie bar staff would cause chaos in central London and the Home Counties. Do you know how long it takes to get served in some City pubs now? Replace the Aussies with Serbo-Croats or whatever and the whole place would just gum up.
I don't know why Southerners go to bars, you don't have water down your booze.
Spoken as only a tee-total Northerner could. There are some very good beers from the North, but sometimes you have to work hard to find them. Last time I was in Liverpool I went to a city centre pub, just up the road from the nicely poshed-up dicks, and there was not a single real ale on sale! Was like stepping in a time machine and being transported back forty years.
"... someone persuaded me to mix whisky and champagne ...
Absolutely wonderful interview with Tory Baroness Trumpington on The Daily Politics, if you missed it, catch it on BBC Iplayer. She saved the best for last.
Twitter Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m Tory Baroness Trumpington describes Alex Salmond as a "madman, crazy in what he's trying to do..." #bbcdp
Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m Forsyth on Trumpington:"She has some very radical views..."
18% HPI. Surely the government needs to look at curbing foreign or non-resident ownership of UK property. I feel incredibly lucky that I bought my flat when I did, a similar one on a road nearby just went for £135k more than I paid for mine in October. Foreign money in the London housing market is not an "investment" we want or need. If foreigners want to invest in London there are enough other projets they can look at. Time to introduce a 50% annual tax on non-resident ownership to get them out. We don't want or need corrupt Russian and Arab billionaires hoovering up prime property and blowing up a housing bubble.
I think it needs to be looked at, but i would be wary of blunt mechanisms in case it causes issues elsewhere. I agree though that people being priced out of homes by speculative overseas investors isn't a good thing.
You want evidence that the Tories cannot be trusted with the NHS? How about Circle Health, which has recently landed £1.36 billion worth of health service work (including the contract to takeover the first privatised NHS hospital, Hinchingbroke) Circle Health is part of Circle Holdings PLC, which is owned by a series of hedge funds, all of whom were founded by major Tory party donors. Lansdowne Partners (29.2% stake) was founded by Sir Paul Ruddock, who donated £692,592 to the Tories. Odey Asset Management (14.8% stake) founder Robin Odey donated £220,000. Invesco Perpetual (28.7% stake) was set up by Sir Martyn Arbib, who donated £466,330. BlueCrest Capital (5% stake) was set up by Michael Platt, who has donated £125,000. All those secret dinners with Tory donors certainly paid off there, it would seem, as they clinked glasses and raised a toast to 'all in it together'
Absolutely wonderful interview with Tory Baroness Trumpington on The Daily Politics, if you missed it, catch it on BBC Iplayer. She saved the best for last.
Twitter Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m Tory Baroness Trumpington describes Alex Salmond as a "madman, crazy in what he's trying to do..." #bbcdp
Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m Forsyth on Trumpington:"She has some very radical views..."
Only a deluded half witted Tory could post that claptrap and not be embarrassed , Baroness Trumpington LOL. A not all there unelected Tory dodo , with few marbles left accuses an elected politician of "madness" and being "crazy". Send for the men in white coats.
Mass surveillance of social media, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, and even Google searches, is permissible because they are "external communications", according to the government's most senior security official.
In the first detailed justification of the UK's online interception policy, Charles Farr, director general of the Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism, has defended the way in which it sidesteps the need for individual search warrants.
I dunno, Mr. Eagles, but I can't see what the problem is there. If I write you a letter then agents of HMG will need a warrant to intercept and read it. If I paint the contents of that letter on a wall in a public place then anyone who walks past can read it, including agents of HMG. There is a difference in my actions: the first is a private communication the second is a public declaration. Now transfer that to the Internet, email content = private (need a warrant), posts on public forums are, well public (anyone can read them).
They're saying your email content is public and doesn't need a warrant.
Are they, Mr. Tokyo? Do please explain how the content of an email between myself and, say, Mr Eagles in Sheffield can, lawfully, be intercepted and read without a warrant?
You send your email to your friend in Sheffield's Hotmail account. This passes through a server in the US and is therefore considered an "external" communication on a "web-based platform" which can be intercepted without a warrant.
It may be possible to avoid this using a UK-based mail server amd making sure your email is never routed outside the UK, but for all we know that may be interceptable under a different interpretation of some other legislation, since we only found out about this one through the combination of Snowden and this particular lawsuit.
You want evidence that the Tories cannot be trusted with the NHS? How about Circle Health, which has recently landed £1.36 billion worth of health service work (including the contract to takeover the first privatised NHS hospital, Hinchingbroke) Circle Health is part of Circle Holdings PLC, which is owned by a series of hedge funds, all of whom were founded by major Tory party donors. Lansdowne Partners (29.2% stake) was founded by Sir Paul Ruddock, who donated £692,592 to the Tories. Odey Asset Management (14.8% stake) founder Robin Odey donated £220,000. Invesco Perpetual (28.7% stake) was set up by Sir Martyn Arbib, who donated £466,330. BlueCrest Capital (5% stake) was set up by Michael Platt, who has donated £125,000. All those secret dinners with Tory donors certainly paid off there, it would seem, as they clinked glasses and raised a toast to 'all in it together'
Absolutely wonderful interview with Tory Baroness Trumpington on The Daily Politics, if you missed it, catch it on BBC Iplayer. She saved the best for last.
Twitter Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m Tory Baroness Trumpington describes Alex Salmond as a "madman, crazy in what he's trying to do..." #bbcdp
Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m Forsyth on Trumpington:"She has some very radical views..."
Only a deluded half witted Tory could post that claptrap and not be embarrassed , Baroness Trumpington LOL. A not all there unelected Tory dodo , with few marbles left accuses an elected politician of "madness" and being "crazy". Send for the men in white coats.
Nice to see you back! It's been a bit lonely. Though Oldnat has been making an appearance ...
BTW is it true that Lady Trumpington wants brothels to be legalised? And that this was what Mr Forsyth was getting excited about?
You want evidence that the Tories cannot be trusted with the NHS? How about Circle Health, which has recently landed £1.36 billion worth of health service work (including the contract to takeover the first privatised NHS hospital, Hinchingbroke) Circle Health is part of Circle Holdings PLC, which is owned by a series of hedge funds, all of whom were founded by major Tory party donors. Lansdowne Partners (29.2% stake) was founded by Sir Paul Ruddock, who donated £692,592 to the Tories. Odey Asset Management (14.8% stake) founder Robin Odey donated £220,000. Invesco Perpetual (28.7% stake) was set up by Sir Martyn Arbib, who donated £466,330. BlueCrest Capital (5% stake) was set up by Michael Platt, who has donated £125,000. All those secret dinners with Tory donors certainly paid off there, it would seem, as they clinked glasses and raised a toast to 'all in it together'
Careful, some people in the past have had to apologise to Circle Health for smearing them
I feel obliged to report this to my fellow island inhabitants-
Proposed Scottish constitution to include "a commitment to free university education"
I always thought Constitutions were process and framework documents not enshrined manifestos.
While I have not read the Indy White Paper - by all accounts it was a dangerous precedent.
Just before anyone gets too aerated - this is only an interim constitution (as we discussed on PB before, as I recall), to keep things going and legal in the first year or so of indy till the permanent constitution is developed and put into action.
Some very misleading headlines about it at the moment.
Carnyx, I would not worry , Sunnyjim going from comics to the Whitepaper could never end well. Given that he is just a Tory fanboy , fainting at every utterence from CHQ, it is hardly worth trying to explain in an intelligent fashion. Far better just to say SunnyJim "back to your dolls you silly person".
I tend to assume that in a EU referendum the result would be at least 55% Yes, so for Yes to be on 44% and an 8 point lead is not very impressive by comparison.
You want evidence that the Tories cannot be trusted with the NHS? How about Circle Health, which has recently landed £1.36 billion worth of health service work (including the contract to takeover the first privatised NHS hospital, Hinchingbroke) Circle Health is part of Circle Holdings PLC, which is owned by a series of hedge funds, all of whom were founded by major Tory party donors. Lansdowne Partners (29.2% stake) was founded by Sir Paul Ruddock, who donated £692,592 to the Tories. Odey Asset Management (14.8% stake) founder Robin Odey donated £220,000. Invesco Perpetual (28.7% stake) was set up by Sir Martyn Arbib, who donated £466,330. BlueCrest Capital (5% stake) was set up by Michael Platt, who has donated £125,000. All those secret dinners with Tory donors certainly paid off there, it would seem, as they clinked glasses and raised a toast to 'all in it together'
Would it be this hospital you refer to? Seems outsourcing and innovative and private sector management works.
You want evidence that the Tories cannot be trusted with the NHS? How about Circle Health, which has recently landed £1.36 billion worth of health service work (including the contract to takeover the first privatised NHS hospital, Hinchingbroke) Circle Health is part of Circle Holdings PLC, which is owned by a series of hedge funds, all of whom were founded by major Tory party donors. Lansdowne Partners (29.2% stake) was founded by Sir Paul Ruddock, who donated £692,592 to the Tories. Odey Asset Management (14.8% stake) founder Robin Odey donated £220,000. Invesco Perpetual (28.7% stake) was set up by Sir Martyn Arbib, who donated £466,330. BlueCrest Capital (5% stake) was set up by Michael Platt, who has donated £125,000. All those secret dinners with Tory donors certainly paid off there, it would seem, as they clinked glasses and raised a toast to 'all in it together'
Brilliant! So much ignorance displayed in one post. Thinking Invesco Perpetual is a hedge fund is particularly amusing.
Still, all that investment certainly paid off for the patients at Hinchingbrooke:
Absolutely wonderful interview with Tory Baroness Trumpington on The Daily Politics, if you missed it, catch it on BBC Iplayer. She saved the best for last.
Twitter Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m Tory Baroness Trumpington describes Alex Salmond as a "madman, crazy in what he's trying to do..." #bbcdp
Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m Forsyth on Trumpington:"She has some very radical views..."
Only a deluded half witted Tory could post that claptrap and not be embarrassed , Baroness Trumpington LOL. A not all there unelected Tory dodo , with few marbles left accuses an elected politician of "madness" and being "crazy". Send for the men in white coats.
Nice to see you back! It's been a bit lonely. Though Oldnat has been making an appearance ...
BTW is it true that Lady Trumpington wants brothels to be legalised? And that this was what Mr Forsyth was getting excited about?
Just realised the unfortunate double entendre - for the avoidance of doubt, 'excited' means 'to be critical of'!
So Circle won an award from CHKS which the Daily Mail says" Is company being paid to help the NHS hide its death rates? Critics say firm 'reclassifies' potentially avoidable deaths Firm said it could help reduce death rates by re-categorising deaths as being caused by terminal illness rather than poor care"
You want evidence that the Tories cannot be trusted with the NHS? How about Circle Health, which has recently landed £1.36 billion worth of health service work (including the contract to takeover the first privatised NHS hospital, Hinchingbroke) Circle Health is part of Circle Holdings PLC, which is owned by a series of hedge funds, all of whom were founded by major Tory party donors. Lansdowne Partners (29.2% stake) was founded by Sir Paul Ruddock, who donated £692,592 to the Tories. Odey Asset Management (14.8% stake) founder Robin Odey donated £220,000. Invesco Perpetual (28.7% stake) was set up by Sir Martyn Arbib, who donated £466,330. BlueCrest Capital (5% stake) was set up by Michael Platt, who has donated £125,000. All those secret dinners with Tory donors certainly paid off there, it would seem, as they clinked glasses and raised a toast to 'all in it together'
You want evidence that the Tories cannot be trusted with the NHS? How about Circle Health, which has recently landed £1.36 billion worth of health service work (including the contract to takeover the first privatised NHS hospital, Hinchingbroke) Circle Health is part of Circle Holdings PLC, which is owned by a series of hedge funds, all of whom were founded by major Tory party donors. Lansdowne Partners (29.2% stake) was founded by Sir Paul Ruddock, who donated £692,592 to the Tories. Odey Asset Management (14.8% stake) founder Robin Odey donated £220,000. Invesco Perpetual (28.7% stake) was set up by Sir Martyn Arbib, who donated £466,330. BlueCrest Capital (5% stake) was set up by Michael Platt, who has donated £125,000. All those secret dinners with Tory donors certainly paid off there, it would seem, as they clinked glasses and raised a toast to 'all in it together'
Brilliant! So much ignorance displayed in one post. Thinking Invesco Perpetual is a hedge fund is particularly amusing.
Still, all that investment certainly paid off for the patients at Hinchingbrooke:
Certainly good if you own property, house prices rose by 9.9% average this year.....
I can't quite see how I benefit from my property being worth more this year than it was last. OK, I have an asset that is now worth much more than I paid for it twenty-odd years ago (about five times as much) but in terms of actual spending power I am no better off. Indeed, once HMG gets round to sorting out the Council Tax, I will no doubt incur a much larger bill so I'll actually be worse off in terms of disposable income. Additionally, if we want our son to inherit the house when we shuffle-off, I am going to have to fork out hard cash to lawyers to set up some sort of trust as it would seem that that we are going to be in the inheritance tax bracket (considering I spent most of my working life in the service of HMtQ in relatively junior positions that shows the insanity of the IHT situation).
Ever rising house prices is not a good thing for anyone, except property speculators, and certainly not for the country as a whole.
House Prices - Part I
According to Nationwide, who produce the only widely distributed real house prices index, residential property in the UK has increased in real terms (i.e. above the rate of retail price inflation) at an annual trend of 2.7% since 1975.
The Nationwide take an average UK figure for a 'typical' property from their nominal price index and convert the price to a current price using RPI as published by the ONS. There will be strong regional variations so the current prices produced can only be a guideline.
There is significant cyclical fluctuation above and below the trend line for real price increases. For example between 2002-2011 house prices were growing above trend peaking in 2007-08. This period followed a period between 1991-2002 when real house prices grew below trend with the trough in 1996. At present house prices are rising but are still well below the real house price growth trend. They do however appear to be just coming off the trough of 2013.
The following box shows that a typical UK house bought for an average price of £51k twenty years ago would today be worth £178k in nominal prices. It also shows that the nominal price is, uniquely for Q1 2014, identical to the RPI adjusted current price, meaning that its owner has neither gained nor lost value when in real terms over the past 20 years of ownership. The final column shows that today's nominal and current price is still some £20k below the long term trend price for house price increases, so if sold today the owner would not realise any above inflation increase.
These prices need to be compared with the peak of above trend house price inflation in 2007. Not only is the typical average UK property price lower today in nominal terms than it was in 2007, it was also worth some £20k above the then long term trend price. The same house today is worth some £20k below trend.
So what does this tell us? That today house prices are much more balanced when compared against retail inflation than they were pre-crash. It also suggests that we are in for a period of cyclical above inflation price increases as prices return to their above inflation growth trend.
The current problems in the housing market are regional disparities (London growing at 20% and the North flat) and low sales volume (number of sales are one sixth of the mid noughties peak).
In general though, if you accept that a house purchaser should be rewarded by a 2-3% annual real terms return in capital value on their investment, the housing market is not a major concern at present. The concern is a fear of the mid-noughties boom repeating but this is unlikely in the short term future due to very different economical fundamentals.
So what does this tell us? That today house prices are much more balanced when compared against retail inflation than they were pre-crash. It also suggests that we are in for a period of cyclical above inflation price increases as prices return to their above inflation growth trend.
The current problems in the housing market are regional disparities (London growing at 20% and the North flat) and low sales volume (number of sales are one sixth of the mid noughties peak).
In general though, if you accept that a house purchaser should be rewarded by a 2-3% annual real terms return in capital value on their investment, the housing market is not a major concern at present. The concern is a fear of the mid-noughties boom repeating but this is unlikely in the short term future due to very different economical fundamentals.
Thank you for these pointers, from this I deduce that there is no 'house price bubble' that is going to undermine the economy. One wonders why these opinions are not given a wider airing in the press. Even if ('if') your illustration is out by a factor it is still surely worthy of consideration when it comes to discussion of the argument. I can only come to the conclusion that the press favour a, 'house price boom-bust. We are all doomed' headline to a, 'all normal move along now' one. We can all guess which one will sell more papers and be used to attack politicians, who the papers fear.
Mass surveillance of social media, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, and even Google searches, is permissible because they are "external communications", according to the government's most senior security official.
In the first detailed justification of the UK's online interception policy, Charles Farr, director general of the Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism, has defended the way in which it sidesteps the need for individual search warrants.
I dunno, Mr. Eagles, but I can't see what the problem is there. If I write you a letter then agents of HMG will need a warrant to intercept and read it. If I paint the contents of that letter on a wall in a public place then anyone who walks past can read it, including agents of HMG. There is a difference in my actions: the first is a private communication the second is a public declaration. Now transfer that to the Internet, email content = private (need a warrant), posts on public forums are, well public (anyone can read them).
They're saying your email content is public and doesn't need a warrant.
Are they, Mr. Tokyo? Do please explain how the content of an email between myself and, say, Mr Eagles in Sheffield can, lawfully, be intercepted and read without a warrant?
You send your email to your friend in Sheffield's Hotmail account. This passes through a server in the US and is therefore considered an "external" communication on a "web-based platform" which can be intercepted without a warrant.
It may be possible to avoid this using a UK-based mail server amd making sure your email is never routed outside the UK, but for all we know that may be interceptable under a different interpretation of some other legislation, since we only found out about this one through the combination of Snowden and this particular lawsuit.
But is it as an email on the server in question what is considered an 'external' account' or are such accounts actually defined as those which relate to social media and not emails. There was a big fuss over the govt retaining the records of emails but those emails could not be read without justification and a warrant. This seems not unreasonable since someone might be planning a crime using email before the police become suspicious and then need to go back and look at old emails.
Comments
Royal Ascot Day 1
BetVictor special price trebles
Toronado,Hot Streak and Kingman all TO WIN 18/1
Toronado,Hot Streak and Kingman all TO PLACE 11/4
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There is absolutely no sign of any inflationary pressure at all, except for the deluge of foreign money that is pouring into the London housing market and rippling outwards from there.
If you were being generous to Osborne you would say this is the evidence that his strategy is working - government austerity enabling the Bank of England to keep interest rates low. Alternatively, he is a very luck boy - which is almost as good.
" which is almost as good"
Certainly good if you own property, house prices rose by 9.9% average this year.
If you are an NHS manager, your wages kept up with house prices, and overtopped inflation, If you are a nurse? Who the hell cares, there are plenty of third world ones available. 1% is way to generous for trash like them.
That's the question that matters.
Some people wanted further details, so this is the relevent article:
Daily Mail - REVEALED: How 6 in 10 won't get the full £155-a-week new flat-rate state pension they expect He paid the lower rate plus his private pension pot was decimated in his divorce. I'm surprised this managed to slip through without much coverage.
Otherwise, I think it's probably here for the long-term.
Nothing unreasonable about that. Money then instead of money now; a bargain they knew they were striking at the time.
The average house price increase for the UK (excluding London) would be interesting to know.
I am glad that the Chancellor is fortunate, because if he were unfortunate and inflation was still a lot higher it would be bad for everyone. It's not like I support him or his policies, but I don't want to see the economy crash and burn just for the pleasure of seeing him ejected from No. 11.
As it happens I do own part of my house, with the rest owned by the building society, but I'd much prefer house prices to simply stay stable, rather than go dramatically up or down. I think it would be good for the country - as well as my peace of mind - if house prices would simply stay roughly the same in nominal terms for the next twenty years or so.
Regardless of whether you think introducing a flat-rate pension to replace the old system was a good idea or not, words should still retain their meaning and a flat-rate pension should be exactly that.
[EDIT: It's also rather good].
Assuming for the moment that the fires of jihadism will blow out (and there is much in the history of Islam to suggest that violent struggle is the default mode rather than the exception), how do you propose we quarantine ourselves against the most virulent parts of the Islamic world which are in our country?
I'd be more concerned with those staying behind to plot attacks here. If someone wants to go and get shot in Syria- then good luck to you.
Those who have paid contracted-out NI contributions will still qualify for a state pension under the old rules, though a naive reading of the new rules would suggest they'd get nothing.
For more than two centuries Australia and the UK have had a bond which has been unbreakable, despite being so far apart.
But a new poll suggests the two countries are no longer "best mates".
The survey found more than eight in 10 Australians see the relationship as important, with 28% saying it is very important.
However, when asked to choose Australia's "best friend" from a list of six countries around the world, the UK came third in popularity behind the United States and New Zealand
Around a third (35%) of Australians said the US was their "best friend", while just under a third (32%) nominated New Zealand.
http://news.sky.com/story/1284029/australia-and-uk-no-longer-best-mates-poll
I'd assume the 15:45 is, is the 17:00 ? (Ascot)
Ever rising house prices is not a good thing for anyone, except property speculators, and certainly not for the country as a whole.
Business Secretary Vince Cable is facing a probe into whether a controversial poll seen as a bid to undermine Nick Clegg's leadership should have been declared as a gift.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/vince-cable-faces-probe-over-nick-clegg-poll-9541799.html
Edit: FYI I really don't consider this supposed breach as much, it won't register with the public, it's not a scandal that Cable has personally profited in pecuniary way.
British embassy in Iran to reopen as Iraqi crisis deepens
William Hague says diplomatic base in Tehran to be restored as west looks to Iran to help tackle Isis-led insurgency in Iraq
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/17/british-embassy-iran-tehran-reopened-william-hague
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=10904696&cc=10871236
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=10904696&cc=10871236
My house is - apparently - worth 10 times what I paid for it 24 years ago. Yet if I sold it and divided the entire proceeds between my 3 children they still wouldn't be able to buy a similar house in a similar area. And we're not talking mansions here with drives and endless gardens but a bog standard Victorian terraced house, originally built as servants' quarters for the high and mighty.
Stable house prices with value increasing only because the owner has actually added some real value (a new room for instance) is the Holy Grail of British politics.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/17/ukips-top-20-target-seats/
In the first detailed justification of the UK's online interception policy, Charles Farr, director general of the Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism, has defended the way in which it sidesteps the need for individual search warrants.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/17/mass-surveillance-social-media-permitted-uk-law-charles-farr
Some very misleading headlines about it at the moment.
.
I will be drinking in Liverpool tonight and will have a cornucopia of real ales to choose from. How could you miss out the Baltic Fleet (Wapping), for instance? You must have been totally lost.
Though I am a tee-totaller now, and have been for nearly five years (apart from the time, someone persuaded me to mix whisky and champagne)
Twitter
Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m
Tory Baroness Trumpington describes Alex Salmond as a "madman, crazy in what he's trying to do..." #bbcdp
Tim Reid @TimReidBBC 2m
Forsyth on Trumpington:"She has some very radical views..."
P.S. The curry in the curry house recommended by a local attendee was fecking dreadful. Nice restaurant in ambiance and service, but the food was appalling - tasteless crap but he thought it good.
How about Circle Health, which has recently landed £1.36 billion worth of health service work (including the contract to takeover the first privatised NHS hospital, Hinchingbroke)
Circle Health is part of Circle Holdings PLC, which is owned by a series of hedge funds, all of whom were founded by major Tory party donors.
Lansdowne Partners (29.2% stake) was founded by Sir Paul Ruddock, who donated £692,592 to the Tories.
Odey Asset Management (14.8% stake) founder Robin Odey donated £220,000.
Invesco Perpetual (28.7% stake) was set up by Sir Martyn Arbib, who donated £466,330.
BlueCrest Capital (5% stake) was set up by Michael Platt, who has donated £125,000.
All those secret dinners with Tory donors certainly paid off there, it would seem, as they clinked glasses and raised a toast to 'all in it together'
You send your email to your friend in Sheffield's Hotmail account. This passes through a server in the US and is therefore considered an "external" communication on a "web-based platform" which can be intercepted without a warrant.
It may be possible to avoid this using a UK-based mail server amd making sure your email is never routed outside the UK, but for all we know that may be interceptable under a different interpretation of some other legislation, since we only found out about this one through the combination of Snowden and this particular lawsuit.
BTW is it true that Lady Trumpington wants brothels to be legalised? And that this was what Mr Forsyth was getting excited about?
http://www.greenbenchesuk.com/2012/11/superbug-outbreak-jumps-200-at-1st.html
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xnG4g7jn6rQ
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2632191/Private-firm-turned-failing-NHS-hospital-award-winner-From-basket-case-best-country-patient-care.html
Still, all that investment certainly paid off for the patients at Hinchingbrooke:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2283150/Hinchingbrooke-Hospital-The-failing-NHS-trust-taken-private-firm-Circle.html
Firm said it could help reduce death rates by re-categorising deaths as being caused by terminal illness rather than poor care"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2287682/CHKS-Is-company-paid-help-NHS-hide-death-rates.html#ixzz34tpScIPa
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
And the Daily Mirror can afford copyright lawyers to go after you for plagiarising and rehashing their story here: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/fury-tory-party-donors-handed-3123469.
And a Tory spokesman added: “The decision to contract out Hinchingbrooke was taken by Andy Burnham.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/fury-tory-party-donors-handed-3123469
According to Nationwide, who produce the only widely distributed real house prices index, residential property in the UK has increased in real terms (i.e. above the rate of retail price inflation) at an annual trend of 2.7% since 1975.
The Nationwide take an average UK figure for a 'typical' property from their nominal price index and convert the price to a current price using RPI as published by the ONS. There will be strong regional variations so the current prices produced can only be a guideline.
There is significant cyclical fluctuation above and below the trend line for real price increases. For example between 2002-2011 house prices were growing above trend peaking in 2007-08. This period followed a period between 1991-2002 when real house prices grew below trend with the trough in 1996. At present house prices are rising but are still well below the real house price growth trend. They do however appear to be just coming off the trough of 2013.
[to be continued]
House Prices - Part II
The following box shows that a typical UK house bought for an average price of £51k twenty years ago would today be worth £178k in nominal prices. It also shows that the nominal price is, uniquely for Q1 2014, identical to the RPI adjusted current price, meaning that its owner has neither gained nor lost value when in real terms over the past 20 years of ownership. The final column shows that today's nominal and current price is still some £20k below the long term trend price for house price increases, so if sold today the owner would not realise any above inflation increase.
These prices need to be compared with the peak of above trend house price inflation in 2007. Not only is the typical average UK property price lower today in nominal terms than it was in 2007, it was also worth some £20k above the then long term trend price. The same house today is worth some £20k below trend. So what does this tell us? That today house prices are much more balanced when compared against retail inflation than they were pre-crash. It also suggests that we are in for a period of cyclical above inflation price increases as prices return to their above inflation growth trend.
The current problems in the housing market are regional disparities (London growing at 20% and the North flat) and low sales volume (number of sales are one sixth of the mid noughties peak).
In general though, if you accept that a house purchaser should be rewarded by a 2-3% annual real terms return in capital value on their investment, the housing market is not a major concern at present. The concern is a fear of the mid-noughties boom repeating but this is unlikely in the short term future due to very different economical fundamentals.
One wonders why these opinions are not given a wider airing in the press. Even if ('if') your illustration is out by a factor it is still surely worthy of consideration when it comes to discussion of the argument.
I can only come to the conclusion that the press favour a, 'house price boom-bust. We are all doomed' headline to a, 'all normal move along now' one. We can all guess which one will sell more papers and be used to attack politicians, who the papers fear.
It seems we are being badly served by the media.
There was a big fuss over the govt retaining the records of emails but those emails could not be read without justification and a warrant.
This seems not unreasonable since someone might be planning a crime using email before the police become suspicious and then need to go back and look at old emails.