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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results: June 12th 2014

SystemSystem Posts: 11,748
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results: June 12th 2014

Sleaford, Quarrington and Mareham (Ind Defence)<
Result: Lincolnshire Independent 527 (45%), Conservative 477 (40%), Independent 178 (15%)
Lincolnshire Independent GAIN from Independent with a majority of 50 (5%)

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    Broken sleazy independents on the slide.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,061
    Mr. Pulpstar, on the slide, both up and down the polls!

    Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for this.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Who are these 'Lincolnshire Independents' who are sweeping all before them?
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who are these 'Lincolnshire Independents' who are sweeping all before them?

    The Lincolnshire Independents form a British political party in Lincolnshire. Founded in July 2008 they have 8 Councillors on Lincolnshire County Council, all gained at the 2013 local elections, 2013.

    If they get any stronger, perhaps the electoral commission should investigate their expenses..!



  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    What caused the bye election - was the councillor photographed reading a copy of the Sleaford Trumpet ?

  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    A local party for local people... all very League of Gentlemen...
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited June 2014
    TGOHF said:

    What caused the bye election - was the councillor photographed reading a copy of the Sleaford Trumpet ?

    He has since issued a non-apology, and pootled off to enjoy a nice piece of Wensleydale.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,732
    oxfordsimon said:

    A local party for local people... all very League of Gentlemen...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/clips/p006vm6j/the_league_of_gentlemen_a_local_shop_for_local_people/
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Magicking prisons up out of thin air is UKIP policy.
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited June 2014
    FPT

    TSE : "My football bets today, may they be as profitable as my tips yesterday*

    Cameroon to beat Mexico

    Netherlands to beat Spain

    Australia to beat Chile."

    Interesting ..... and the prospect of three tasty doubles there methinks.

    * Yesterday's tipster of the day has to be Foxy Jnr with his correct 3 - 1 forecast for the Brazil vs Croatia game at 15/1 iirc.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Richard_Navabi
    From the same article

    "He says the order to take in more prisoners is also very embarrassing for the Ministry of Justice, which has closed 16 jails in the past four years.

    A further two prisons were converted to immigration removal centres, after prison population forecasts suggested numbers would stabilise or rise only slowly.

    The MoJ has yet to respond to a request for comment."

    Spin fail Richard
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2014
    A Twitter account believed to belong to ISIS has claimed that the militants have executed 1,700 Shia soldiers in Iraq. Meanwhile the group has allegedly pardoned 2,500 Sunni soldiers. This cannot be independently confirmed, but the UN says it has received reports of summary executions. We will report more on this claim as we have it.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10892299/Iraq-crisis-ISIS-militants-push-towards-Baghdad-live.html
    Charles Lister of the US think-tank the Brookings Institution tweets:


    twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/477411188993568769/photo/1
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Hang on, though, Mr. N. The incidence of crime is plummeting, we are told so on every front. So how can the number of criminals needing to be imprisoned be rising? Less crime => less criminals => less imprisonment, surely? If our gaols are being required to take more prisoners then there must be other factors at play, I wonder what.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    You do know Gordon Brown lost in 2010? Perhaps the coalition should have treated new prisons as shovel-ready projects for George Osborne's Plan A++++++++ or whatever we are on now.

    FPT re Ed, scousers & the currant bun -- you are right -- his advisors (and he) should have seen this coming.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,990
    HurstLlama said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Hang on, though, Mr. N. The incidence of crime is plummeting, we are told so on every front. So how can the number of criminals needing to be imprisoned be rising? Less crime => less criminals => less imprisonment, surely? If our gaols are being required to take more prisoners then there must be other factors at play, I wonder what.
    Stricter sentencing guidelines = prisons full.

  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Are we building more of them though? We need to.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    HurstLlama said:

    Hang on, though, Mr. N. The incidence of crime is plummeting, we are told so on every front. So how can the number of criminals needing to be imprisoned be rising? Less crime => less criminals => less imprisonment, surely? If our gaols are being required to take more prisoners then there must be other factors at play, I wonder what.

    Presumably there is a considerable time lag from Less crime => less imprisonment, but I imagine the main reason is longer sentences (and who knows whether those are contributing to less crime?). This was already happening under the last government - I don't think it's anything new.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles

    No TSE, already full and understaffed, and now being asked to take on more.
    I wonder what they are paying those prison officers for the short term contracts?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    David Goodhart:

    "How modern liberals created Nigel Farage
    Contemporary liberalism has disdained the loyalties that work as society’s glue. Its failure has allowed populism to dominate politics, and Nigel Farage is the big winner"

    http://www.thecommentator.com/article/5017/how_modern_liberals_created_nigel_farage
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,990
    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    TSE : "My football bets today, may they be as profitable as my tips yesterday*

    Cameroon to beat Mexico

    Netherlands to beat Spain

    Australia to beat Chile."

    Interesting ..... and the prospect of three tasty doubles there methinks.

    * Yesterday's tipster of the day has to be Foxy Jnr with his correct 3 - 1 forecast for the Brazil vs Croatia game at 15/1 iirc.

    My strategy in these tournaments is to back the outsider in the group stages.

    There's always a surprise or two plus with cash out markets and betfair you can trade out for a profit.

    Has been a profitable strategy in the past

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,061
    Mr. Socrates, reminds me of power stations, only without the simpleton Davey in charge, of course.

    Mr. Eagles, if the Government had adopted my policies on trebuchet-based justice the prison would be emptier, and we'd enjoy the revenue from ticket sales to watch criminal scum get flung into the sea.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Hang on, though, Mr. N. The incidence of crime is plummeting, we are told so on every front. So how can the number of criminals needing to be imprisoned be rising? Less crime => less criminals => less imprisonment, surely? If our gaols are being required to take more prisoners then there must be other factors at play, I wonder what.
    Stricter sentencing guidelines = prisons full.

    That raises the interesting issue of whether stricter sentencing is a cause of lower crime, does it not? And if that is true what does that say about penal policy over the past forty or fifty years?

    Mind you, I have to ask, have there been any new guidelines imposing harsher sentences? I can't recall any and as you have pointed out on here many times the term imposed by the judge is a multiple of the time that will actually be served.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2014
    Socrates said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Are we building more of them though? We need to.
    Short answer is Yes, although probably not fast enough. An article from end of last year.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23958223
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,990
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    No TSE, already full and understaffed, and now being asked to take on more.
    I wonder what they are paying those prison officers for the short term contracts?

    I know the prison service very well.

    I know what I'm talking about.

    I'd also add that there's been an increase of licence recalls and HDC violations that don't help.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Hang on, though, Mr. N. The incidence of crime is plummeting, we are told so on every front. So how can the number of criminals needing to be imprisoned be rising? Less crime => less criminals => less imprisonment, surely? If our gaols are being required to take more prisoners then there must be other factors at play, I wonder what.
    Stricter sentencing guidelines = prisons full.

    That raises the interesting issue of whether stricter sentencing is a cause of lower crime, does it not? And if that is true what does that say about penal policy over the past forty or fifty years?
    Following the riots in 2011, very stiff sentences were handed down to rioters. We now have some evidence of the impact of that stiff sentencing:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/11/riot-crimes-fell-london-2012-sentences
  • Options
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Looks like the Shia/Sunni civil war within Islam is about to move up a gear.

    Am I alone in wondering very hard if this is a bad thing or a good one?
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles

    The wrong kind of offenders?

    Or is it a "surprise" increase, like the passport fiasco that May was warned about last year? ^^
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Facebook, twitter and other comms now blocked in Baghdad...
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who are these 'Lincolnshire Independents' who are sweeping all before them?

    Poachers.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,990
    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Hang on, though, Mr. N. The incidence of crime is plummeting, we are told so on every front. So how can the number of criminals needing to be imprisoned be rising? Less crime => less criminals => less imprisonment, surely? If our gaols are being required to take more prisoners then there must be other factors at play, I wonder what.
    Stricter sentencing guidelines = prisons full.

    That raises the interesting issue of whether stricter sentencing is a cause of lower crime, does it not? And if that is true what does that say about penal policy over the past forty or fifty years?

    Mind you, I have to ask, have there been any new guidelines imposing harsher sentences? I can't recall any and as you have pointed out on here many times the term imposed by the judge is a multiple of the time that will actually be served.
    As per Antifrank's link below, there's evidence.

    Also there have been more imprisonable crimes, that didn't exist or weren't as prevalent before.

    Nowadays are lot of people carry round mobile phones, tablets and music players, that can have a combined value of £1500
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,990
    This is from 2013, but is worth a read

    Story of the Prison Population: 1993 – 2012 England and Wales

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/218185/story-prison-population.pdf
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Patrick said:

    Looks like the Shia/Sunni civil war within Islam is about to move up a gear.

    Am I alone in wondering very hard if this is a bad thing or a good one?

    Sky: eyewitness reports of Iraqi Army helicopters firing rockets at a mosque in Tikrit...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,990
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    The wrong kind of offenders?

    Or is it a "surprise" increase, like the passport fiasco that May was warned about last year? ^^

    It was more that people on HDC and licence have violated the terms of their release and get recalled back.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    #BREAKING #ISIS controls Alexandria district in Babel south of #Baghdad, they seem to be trying to surround the city.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    How long before the southern third of Iraq becomes a puppet regime ruled by Iran?
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Hang on, though, Mr. N. The incidence of crime is plummeting, we are told so on every front. So how can the number of criminals needing to be imprisoned be rising? Less crime => less criminals => less imprisonment, surely? If our gaols are being required to take more prisoners then there must be other factors at play, I wonder what.
    Stricter sentencing guidelines = prisons full.

    That raises the interesting issue of whether stricter sentencing is a cause of lower crime, does it not? And if that is true what does that say about penal policy over the past forty or fifty years?

    Mind you, I have to ask, have there been any new guidelines imposing harsher sentences? I can't recall any and as you have pointed out on here many times the term imposed by the judge is a multiple of the time that will actually be served.
    As per Antifrank's link below, there's evidence.

    Also there have been more imprisonable crimes, that didn't exist or weren't as prevalent before.

    Nowadays are lot of people carry round mobile phones, tablets and music players, that can have a combined value of £1500
    Yes people do, but there are we are told far less crimes. If fewer people are getting robbed then there should be fewer robbers going to prison.

    The article Mr. Antifrank posted stated that the average increased length in sentences was two months. That by what you have told amounts to how long extra actually served? Two weeks is it? The higher rate of immediate imprisonment might have a bigger effect, except of course that that article spoke about what was happening a couple of years ago in response to some rather special circumstances. Have those imprisonment rates bee sustained into a period of normality? If so one would expect that there are revised sentencing guidelines that someone could point to.

    If crime is falling but the number of convicts is increasing, then there would seem to be an interplay going on that doesn't on the face of it seem explicable (a bit like current employment rates). I wonder if Mr. Town is about to give us his learned and sagacious view.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited June 2014
    @TheScreamingEagles

    Sounds plausible, those six closed and two converted prisons would be handy at the moment though?
    Was it Gordon Brown who caused all those breaches of conditions, or was it the EU?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,990
    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Hang on, though, Mr. N. The incidence of crime is plummeting, we are told so on every front. So how can the number of criminals needing to be imprisoned be rising? Less crime => less criminals => less imprisonment, surely? If our gaols are being required to take more prisoners then there must be other factors at play, I wonder what.
    Stricter sentencing guidelines = prisons full.

    Td.
    00
    Yes people do, but there are we are told far less crimes. If fewer people are getting robbed then there should be fewer robbers going to prison.

    The article Mr. Antifrank posted stated that the average increased length in sentences was two months. That by what you have told amounts to how long extra actually served? Two weeks is it? The higher rate of immediate imprisonment might have a bigger effect, except of course that that article spoke about what was happening a couple of years ago in response to some rather special circumstances. Have those imprisonment rates bee sustained into a period of normality? If so one would expect that there are revised sentencing guidelines that someone could point to.

    If crime is falling but the number of convicts is increasing, then there would seem to be an interplay going on that doesn't on the face of it seem explicable (a bit like current employment rates). I wonder if Mr. Town is about to give us his learned and sagacious view.
    See the link I posted below

    or here if it is easier for you

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/218185/story-prison-population.pdf
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Root reaches 200.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,990
    edited June 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    Sounds plausible, those six closed and two converted prisons would be handy at the moment though?
    Was it Gordon Brown who caused all those breaches of conditions, or was it the EU?

    Charles Clarke.

    The prisons closed were not fit for purpose.

    Remember some of the prison estates are buildings built in the 20s and 30s.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    And Cooke declares.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    The boy done good. The boy done good.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/iraq-crisis-isis-militants-make-new-gains-live-updates
    2.26pm BST
    Martin Chulov has more on those clashes in Samarra he mentioned in his earlier audio update.

    Heavy clashes broke out by late Friday on the outskirts of Samarra between the Shia volunteers and Sunni insurgents who had been trying to win over residents, some of whom appear to view the new arrivals as liberators.

    Witnesses said the shrines remained undamaged so far and that the insurgents had not been menacing residents. "Some of them have long hair and they are carrying black flags," said one man. "They are Arabs from other countries."

    1.00pm BST Summary
    Here's a summary of latest developments:

    The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis) has gained more ground seizing Saadiyah and Jalawala, north-east of Baghdad. There have also been reports of clashes in Baquba, 30 miles from the capital.
    Iraq's most senior Shia cleric, cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, called for Iraqis to take up arms against "terrorists". Speaking at Friday prayers in Karbala he said: "He who sacrifices for the cause of defending his country and his family and his honour will be a martyr."
    Sunni insurgents have clashed with Shia militia in two more towns as the two sides appear to be preparing for a battle in Samarra. Convoys of Shia militias were seen heading to the city to defend Shia shrines reportedly surrounded by Isis insurgents.
    The UN says it has verified reports of summary executions in areas taken over by Isis militants. UN human rights spokesman Rupert Colville said his office had reports the killings included the execution of 17 civilians working for the police and a court employee in central Mosul.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm amazed that almost £8 million has been bet on the Test match with Betfair so far.
  • Options
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    RodCrosby said:

    #BREAKING #ISIS controls Alexandria district in Babel south of #Baghdad, they seem to be trying to surround the city.

    Indeed not much point in blocking to the north if Fallujah to the west is already fallen.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ISIS taking towns to the south of Baghdad is breathtaking if true.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News: reports that Russian tanks have entered Ukraine.
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: reports that Russian tanks have entered Ukraine.

    Ivan taking full advantage of world events elsewhere.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    I predict that the war in Iraq will be a stonking victory for Allah's followers.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Hang on, though, Mr. N. The incidence of crime is plummeting, we are told so on every front. So how can the number of criminals needing to be imprisoned be rising? Less crime => less criminals => less imprisonment, surely? If our gaols are being required to take more prisoners then there must be other factors at play, I wonder what.
    Stricter sentencing guidelines = prisons full.

    That raises the interesting issue of whether stricter sentencing is a cause of lower crime, does it not? And if that is true what does that say about penal policy over the past forty or fifty years?
    Following the riots in 2011, very stiff sentences were handed down to rioters. We now have some evidence of the impact of that stiff sentencing:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/11/riot-crimes-fell-london-2012-sentences
    The riots themselves were the impact of the lack of stiff sentencing previously.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    I hope paradise ordered in an extra supply of virgins?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    First time England have scored 400 for 15 months.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    "A Facebook craze spreading across France has left a young man dead and another severely injured.

    Police said a 19-year-old drowned after driving his bicycle into a river in a town in western Brittany while a friend filmed him.

    Another youth suffered life-changing injuries after diving headfirst into shallow water near Calais.

    The craze has seen people challenging friends to jump fully clothed into rivers and the sea and film it within 48 hours - or offer dinner at a restaurant.

    A warning posted by police on Facebook said: "Don't be influenced by a stupid phenomenon of the moment."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1281648/man-dies-as-facebook-water-craze-sweeps-france
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @dlknowles: Labour Party determined to make Ed Miliband look even more pathetic: http://stephentwiggmp.co.uk/the-sun/
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Anderson strikes, pending review.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Thousands of Shia fighters have rushed to the central Iraqi city of Samarra to defend two shrines that were blown up by insurgents eight years ago, triggering the sectarian war that almost destroyed the country.

    Convoys of fighters were seen being escorted north by Iraqi police trucks from Baghdad early on Friday and many have now reached the city where insurgents – led by the Sunni militant group the Islamic State of Iraq in the Levant (Isis) – were in control after a lightning strike south.

    The volunteer Shia fighters were quickly assembled after Iraqi forces abandoned their positions in most of the area, leaving only a small number of troops to guard the Imam al-Askari shrines.

    Samarra is the fourth northern city to have all but fallen out of government control. The embattled prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, appears to have drawn battle lines further south in Taiji, hoping to defend Baghdad against insurgents who have occupied the north virtually unopposed.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/iraqi-shia-fights-samarra-shrines-insurgents
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    Thousands of Shia fighters have rushed to the central Iraqi city of Samarra to defend two shrines that were blown up by insurgents eight years ago, triggering the sectarian war that almost destroyed the country.

    Convoys of fighters were seen being escorted north by Iraqi police trucks from Baghdad early on Friday and many have now reached the city where insurgents – led by the Sunni militant group the Islamic State of Iraq in the Levant (Isis) – were in control after a lightning strike south.

    The volunteer Shia fighters were quickly assembled after Iraqi forces abandoned their positions in most of the area, leaving only a small number of troops to guard the Imam al-Askari shrines.

    Samarra is the fourth northern city to have all but fallen out of government control. The embattled prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, appears to have drawn battle lines further south in Taiji, hoping to defend Baghdad against insurgents who have occupied the north virtually unopposed.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/iraqi-shia-fights-samarra-shrines-insurgents

    It's the thirty years' war all over again.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014
    Good News for all except oligarchs (and Charles)

    The media talking up the risks of a property bubble with Carney and St. George threatening to do such things without knowing what they are seems to be having an effect on Central London prime property prices.

    Home values in Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster, London’s most expensive boroughs, fell in April as a strengthening pound and potential new taxes deter wealthy foreign buyers.

    The average price paid for a home in Westminster, which includes Mayfair and St. James’s, fell 2.9 percent to 1.19 million pounds ($2 million), according to data compiled by Acadata Ltd. Values in the borough dropped 14 percent from a year earlier, the real estate research firm and LSL Property Services Plc said in a report today.     [Bloomberg]

    What is interesting about the Acadata index is that it is the only housing price index which (currently) takes cash purchase transactions into account. This makes them more likely to be reliable in segments of the London market which attract foreign purchasers.

    Peter Williams, Chairman of Acadata set the context:

    A weakened pound following the financial crisis helped attract foreign buyers to London properties. The U.K. currency has risen 7.5 percent against a basket of international currencies in the last 12 months. It gained 17 percent against the Russian ruble.

    ...

    Commenting on reports that price gains are weakening, he said: “The slowdown in prices, if it exists, is currently limited to the top end of the market and in prime Central London only.”

    SeanT is saved.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,990
    Will he rue the day?

    The Pontiff argues that the break-up of Yugoslavia was justified but questions whether "things are quite as clear" for other independence movements, including that in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10897888/Pope-voices-fears-over-Scottish-independence.html

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    rumours the Saudis have denied US request to fly missions against ISIS from their bases...
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,487
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Will he rue the day?

    The Pontiff argues that the break-up of Yugoslavia was justified but questions whether "things are quite as clear" for other independence movements, including that in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10897888/Pope-voices-fears-over-Scottish-independence.html


    Certainly an interesting dilemma for certain 'ultra' Unionists.


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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    On top of the open prisons.

    "Full jails told to take in more prisoners "
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27836961

    Could this be failing Grayling, in addition to you "May" get your passport on time?

    No, it's a classic Labour failure. Despite repeated calls from the Conservaties, they did nothing about the looming problem of overcrowded prisons.

    Clearing up Labour's mess on multiple fronts will take a long time. You can't just magic up prisons out of thin air.
    Hang on, though, Mr. N. The incidence of crime is plummeting, we are told so on every front. So how can the number of criminals needing to be imprisoned be rising? Less crime => less criminals => less imprisonment, surely? If our gaols are being required to take more prisoners then there must be other factors at play, I wonder what.
    Stricter sentencing guidelines = prisons full.

    Td.
    00
    Yes people do, but there are we are told far less crimes. If fewer people are getting robbed then there should be fewer robbers going to prison.

    The article Mr. Antifrank posted stated that the average increased length in sentences was two months. That by what you have told amounts to how long extra actually served? Two weeks is it? The higher rate of immediate imprisonment might have a bigger effect, except of course that that article spoke about what was happening a couple of years ago in response to some rather special circumstances. Have those imprisonment rates bee sustained into a period of normality? If so one would expect that there are revised sentencing guidelines that someone could point to.

    If crime is falling but the number of convicts is increasing, then there would seem to be an interplay going on that doesn't on the face of it seem explicable (a bit like current employment rates). I wonder if Mr. Town is about to give us his learned and sagacious view.
    See the link I posted below

    or here if it is easier for you

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/218185/story-prison-population.pdf
    Thanks for that, Mr. Eagles, but I am not sure it answers the central conundrum - if crime is falling why is the population increasing. Still the sun is out and Herself will be home soon, so I think I'll file it as one of those things and go do some chores before she gets back and starts shouting at me.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    rumours the Saudis have denied US request to fly missions against ISIS from their bases...

    Sunnis must stick together.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    AveryLP said:

    Good News for all except oligarchs (and Charles)

    The media talking up the risks of a property bubble with Carney and St. George threatening to do such things without knowing what they are seems to be having an effect on Central London prime property prices.

    Home values in Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster, London’s most expensive boroughs, fell in April as a strengthening pound and potential new taxes deter wealthy foreign buyers.

    The average price paid for a home in Westminster, which includes Mayfair and St. James’s, fell 2.9 percent to 1.19 million pounds ($2 million), according to data compiled by Acadata Ltd. Values in the borough dropped 14 percent from a year earlier, the real estate research firm and LSL Property Services Plc said in a report today.     [Bloomberg]

    What is interesting about the Acadata index is that it is the only housing price index which (currently) takes cash purchase transactions into account. This makes them more likely to be reliable in segments of the London market which attract foreign purchasers.

    Peter Williams, Chairman of Acadata set the context:

    A weakened pound following the financial crisis helped attract foreign buyers to London properties. The U.K. currency has risen 7.5 percent against a basket of international currencies in the last 12 months. It gained 17 percent against the Russian ruble.

    ...

    Commenting on reports that price gains are weakening, he said: “The slowdown in prices, if it exists, is currently limited to the top end of the market and in prime Central London only.”

    SeanT is saved.

    I would think Land Registry figures include cash purchases.

    The sum recorded may differ from that paid, if there is evasion of duty taking place, but no system counts invisible and hidden cash.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ""Jihadist Gains in Iraq Blindside American Spies

    First Crimea, now Iraq. Why does America's $50 billion intelligence community keep getting taken by surprise?"

    http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/06/12/jihadist_gains_in_iraq_blindside_american_spies
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    RodCrosby said:

    rumours the Saudis have denied US request to fly missions against ISIS from their bases...

    The lodestone of Sunni / Wahhabist Islam seeking to ensure the Shias don't get any help - if they can help it.

    Looks like Iraq is going to cease to be. It'll be a Shia rump in the south centred on Baghdad but the patsy of Tehran, a Sunni / ISIL north that makes the Taliban look like a vicarage tea party and a Kurdish northeast permanently worried if their new swivel eyed neighbours are going to invade.

    If this is indeed what comes about we will have a serious terror supporting state in Iraq/Syria. All the blood and treasure spent will have been for nothing. Bush/Blair/Obama alot to answer for.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    AndyJS said:

    ""Jihadist Gains in Iraq Blindside American Spies

    First Crimea, now Iraq. Why does America's $50 billion intelligence community keep getting taken by surprise?"

    http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/06/12/jihadist_gains_in_iraq_blindside_american_spies

    Too much information?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,381
    edited June 2014
    A feast of interesting stories here:
    http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=8f42af8d26b382b0bcc4930b2&id=ae12929027&e=ae7f92d13c
    - Cameron open to compromise on Juncker, 5 Stars join UKIP in EFD, Tories proposing a Muslim EP President, oil brinkmanship galore and more.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    reputed video of ISIS murdering random drivers and passers-by...
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=248793058659959
    WARNING: VERY GRAPHIC
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    NickPalmer said:

    A feast of interesting stories here:
    http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=8f42af8d26b382b0bcc4930b2&id=ae12929027&e=ae7f92d13c
    - Cameron open to compromise on Juncker, 5 Stars join UKIP in EFD, Tories proposing a Muslim EP President, oil brinkmanship galore and more.

    Looks like an interesting site. I've bookmarked it.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited June 2014
    Patrick said:

    RodCrosby said:

    rumours the Saudis have denied US request to fly missions against ISIS from their bases...

    Bush/Blair/Obama alot to answer for.
    Don't forget to include Campbell on that list of shame.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    TIP
    _________

    Fill up your tank sooner rather than later. Oil is on the march upwards.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    reputed video of ISIS murdering random drivers and passers-by...
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=248793058659959
    WARNING: VERY GRAPHIC

    They haven't got round to banning music yet then.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10896699/Evacuations-in-Iraq-as-chaos-spreads.html

    and twitter reports of drivers charging $100 for people trying to leave Baghdad...
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    RodCrosby said:

    and twitter reports of drivers charging $100 for people trying to leave Baghdad...

    Given that we get charged £40 to travel 9 miles from Tunbridge Wells station, I'd have thought that was a bargain in the circumstances.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    Saddam Hussein is looking like a moderate reforming, liberal leader next to this lot.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    TheWatcher said:

    Patrick said:

    RodCrosby said:

    rumours the Saudis have denied US request to fly missions against ISIS from their bases...

    Bush/Blair/Obama alot to answer for.
    Don't forget to include Campbell on that list of shame.
    The Grimer Wormtongue of British politics.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    reputed video of ISIS murdering random drivers and passers-by...
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=248793058659959
    WARNING: VERY GRAPHIC

    They haven't got round to banning music yet then.
    I wonder if they are going to ban fun parks.

    Watch this hilarious company presentation:
    Presented by Manka Studios (self described as the worlds largest media company).
    Manka Fun Park in YEMEN (yes Yemen):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niMJnhg30bY

    ( with a new character for kids: Alli Gator, the Islamic friendly alligator)
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    If Iraq is a Sunni rebellion then "Isis" aren't necessarily "capturing" these places. It's much more likely to be locals joining the rebellion.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,087
    Patrick said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Patrick said:

    RodCrosby said:

    rumours the Saudis have denied US request to fly missions against ISIS from their bases...

    Bush/Blair/Obama alot to answer for.
    Don't forget to include Campbell on that list of shame.
    The Grimer Wormtongue of British politics.
    Worse.

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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    AndyJS said:

    ""Jihadist Gains in Iraq Blindside American Spies

    First Crimea, now Iraq. Why does America's $50 billion intelligence community keep getting taken by surprise?"

    http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/06/12/jihadist_gains_in_iraq_blindside_american_spies

    They instigated both. Their problem isn't not knowing before it's screwing it up afterwards.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    MrJones said:

    If Iraq is a Sunni rebellion then "Isis" aren't necessarily "capturing" these places. It's much more likely to be locals joining the rebellion.

    The only thing stopping Iraq becoming a Stone age Islamic state is fucking Iran. Sweet Jesus !
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2014
    Iraq's foreign minister has drawn parallels between the retreat of the country's security forces in the face of the ISIS onslaught to the collapse of Saddam Hussein's army in 2003, in an interview published in Asharq al-Awsat newspaper today.
    "It is the same collapse that happened in the ranks of the Iraqi armed forces when American forces entered Iraq," Hoshyar Zebari said.
    They "took off military uniforms and put on civilian clothes and went to their houses, leaving weapons and equipment" behind, he said.

    Security forces have resisted the militants in some areas but in others, such as the city of Mosul, abandoned their posts and vehicles, threw away their uniforms and fled.
    Mr Zebari also noted that ISIS has collaborated with other militant groups in the offensive.
    ISIS is coordinating "with the Naqshbandiya Order and some extremist Islamist factions and Ba'ath leaders from the former army," he said, referring to Saddam's forces.
    Earlier, Saddam's daughter Raghad Saddam Hussein told a London-based Arabic newspaper that former aides, army officers and Ba'athists loyal to her toppled late father had played a key role in the capture of Mosul.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10892299/Iraq-crisis-ISIS-militants-push-towards-Baghdad-live.html
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    If Iraq is a Sunni rebellion then "Isis" aren't necessarily "capturing" these places. It's much more likely to be locals joining the rebellion.

    The only thing stopping Iraq becoming a Stone age Islamic state is fucking Iran. Sweet Jesus !
    Oh the irony, I wonder what Israel is thinking, would they ally with Iran under any circumstances?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,163
    Patrick said:


    Looks like Iraq is going to cease to be. It'll be a Shia rump in the south centred on Baghdad but the patsy of Tehran, a Sunni / ISIL north that makes the Taliban look like a vicarage tea party and a Kurdish northeast permanently worried if their new swivel eyed neighbours are going to invade.

    That split sounds like the Joe Biden partition plan, except he wanted the US to impose it from the top.
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Crime is heavily related to the number of young men going through peak testosterone.

    If you increase the number of young men you'll increase crime.

    If you massively increase the number of young men but only in certain areas then you'll massively increase crime but only in those areas.

    If you massively increase the number of young men but only in certain areas while at the same time the number of young men is falling in other areas then you could have a massive increase in crime in some areas while it is declining elsewhere.

    If this basic fact of human reality contradicted a political narrative the political and media class wanted to push on the public then they'd have to cover the problem up and lie about it.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    BREAKING: #Iran Revolutionary Guards fighting INSIDE #Iraq in support of Baghdad govt against #ISIS, Iraq official tells CNN
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    I must agree with a comment long downthread, I'm not sure if I feel anything about what's going on in Iraq/Syria etc etc etc
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,732
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    If Iraq is a Sunni rebellion then "Isis" aren't necessarily "capturing" these places. It's much more likely to be locals joining the rebellion.

    The only thing stopping Iraq becoming a Stone age Islamic state is fucking Iran. Sweet Jesus !
    Oh the irony, I wonder what Israel is thinking, would they ally with Iran under any circumstances?
    They bombed that Iraqi reactor at the height of the Iran-Iraq War, so anything is possible!
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2014
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    If Iraq is a Sunni rebellion then "Isis" aren't necessarily "capturing" these places. It's much more likely to be locals joining the rebellion.

    The only thing stopping Iraq becoming a Stone age Islamic state is fucking Iran. Sweet Jesus !
    Oh the irony, I wonder what Israel is thinking, would they ally with Iran under any circumstances?
    ISIS have said the next target is Jordan. Things will get very interesting then...
    http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4354/isis-jordan
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edmundintokyo said:

    Patrick said:


    Looks like Iraq is going to cease to be. It'll be a Shia rump in the south centred on Baghdad but the patsy of Tehran, a Sunni / ISIL north that makes the Taliban look like a vicarage tea party and a Kurdish northeast permanently worried if their new swivel eyed neighbours are going to invade.

    That split sounds like the Joe Biden partition plan, except he wanted the US to impose it from the top.
    I don't think an ISIS state will be tolerated by Iran, they would want to sweep it all the way to Al Raqqah.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    BREAKING: #Iran Revolutionary Guards fighting INSIDE #Iraq in support of Baghdad govt against #ISIS, Iraq official tells CNN

    America can't help until it gets a yes vote from congress, but it takes time, Iraq needs help now and Iran has no congress to ask before it provides help.
    So Iran is quicker to react to events.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,990
    New thread.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    If Iraq is a Sunni rebellion then "Isis" aren't necessarily "capturing" these places. It's much more likely to be locals joining the rebellion.

    The only thing stopping Iraq becoming a Stone age Islamic state is fucking Iran. Sweet Jesus !
    Oh the irony, I wonder what Israel is thinking, would they ally with Iran under any circumstances?
    ISIS have said the next target is Jordan. Things will get very interesting then...
    http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4354/isis-jordan
    ISIS has a presence on the Golan heights already, its small but its there.
    It's the only thing that keeps the option to do a u-turn with Assad open for Israel.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Dan Hodges in back on the script! Ed is crap,and " it’s high time Labour’s “loyalists” stopped making excuses for him"

    Plus you get to see that picture again.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100276327/dont-blame-ed-milibands-advisers-for-his-sun-shambles-blame-ed/
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Iran is sure getting great value from the $1 trillion that the Americans spent on the war.
    AndyJS said:

    How long before the southern third of Iraq becomes a puppet regime ruled by Iran?

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: God backs Better Together http://t.co/1AZt9imY2J or at least the Pope

    @kiranstacey: Before @MichaelpDeacon gets there. GOD IS BULLYING SCOTLAND http://t.co/dtH5gaBlqT
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @georgeeaton: Liverpool city councillor Martin Cummins has resigned from Labour in protest at Miliband's Sun photo.
This discussion has been closed.