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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m not convinced that Rentoul’s right when he says the polls could be overstating LAB and understating CON
“…By-elections in which a seat fails to change hands may not seem the most exciting of events, but they are important because they allow us to assess the accuracy of opinion polls. Two were carried out in Newark in the final two weeks, one by Lord Ashcroft and the other by Survation. Both predicted a comfortable Conservative win over Ukip.
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http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/the-latest-election-round-what-have-we.html
The new Dan Hodges.
Good thread Mike.
Meanwhile Labour's lead stretching back out, as I noted a week or so ago.
Populus is odd - but it's weightings are miles out from 2010, as a rule.
The growth of online panel polling has thrown up other different problems . It is noteworthy that the worst performers in Mike's table are Comres and Opinium online polls . As I have mentioned many times . the Comres online polls are consistently different to their telephone polls , the former always showing a much higher UKIP figure , Mike's table shows us which ones we should be ignoring .
So I was studying the World Cup Wallchart last night and, here's the thing.
I can see France making the final.
They look a strong unit with a lot of the dressing room troublemakers kicked out by Deschamps and they have a very nice draw.
England probably need to win their group to avoid Brazil in the QF, hope to play Holland there.
But I think Uruguay might win England's group, and Italy could struggle.
Probably totally wrong but you pays your money etc etc..
The fact is that crossover occurred in just three polls for three or so days and never IIRC with YouGov.
The Labour lead now appears to be stretching out - as sensible Tories like PtP have noted.
But whatever gets you through the night!
80 minutes
Does this have any great implications for the GE with double the turnout? Probably not. Certainly not for sure in one direction or the other. The second half of voters who turn out for the GE are more likely to contain more Labour supporters who did not bother. How many more is for the pollsters to judge.
The important trends for the GE are where the protest voters who voted UKIP in the Euros (although not so much in the locals) go. They may well go to NOTA and simply not vote. They may hold their noses and vote for the least worse option. The tories still seem to be best placed to be that option but how many they can pick up is going to be key.
The second issue is whether there is going to be a recovery by the Lib Dems. I think people are underestimating just how badly they usually poll between elections. This time they have got more attention because they are in government. Whether they can recover a significant number of votes back from Labour is a question of their continued existence. History suggests they can but the situation looks grim.
Labour have no chance of forming a majority government, polling very poorly for this stage in the electoral cycle and have done badly in actual recent elections. Lefty hate stops people declaring Conservative.
The bottom line is most of the pollsters got the Euro elections wrong and until Lord Ashcroft came out with his Newark poll, most PBers were salivating at the prospect of a big purple patch being created in Newark when in truth (and to be fair to Richard Tyndall who said so) UKIP were never at the party.
Labour is supposedly holding a poll lead big enough to win a majority at the GE if called last month or this month but in the 3 real elections which have taken place, they badly underperformed in the council elections, barely scraped ahead of the Tories in the Euros (saved only by London) and bombed in Newark. As Jack says Ed the Bland one will never be First Lord of the Treasury.
Labour's biggest challenge is GOTV at GE time.
The March ICM was: Con 35%, Lab 38%, LD 14%, UKIP 9%. Your anti-UKIP theory appears to rely on one very odd poll.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
UKIP may well achieve their best share on GE night in Thanet South, but they may win Thurrock for instance where an anti-UKIP tactical vote is much harder to consider.
Thanet South is quite swingy and will have the Farage effect. Folkestone & Hythe @ 3-1 is one that should probably not be taken from a betting perspective on this basis though.
Many thanks for that analysis.
I agree that UKIP has to be assessed regionally and probably sub-regionally, but facts are hard to get and polls usually do not give enough regional information.
Shall be interested in what you think UKIP's impact will be in the SW region at the GE, as it could wipe out many LD seats.
The YouGOV 2010 splits for June show the LD split has been in favour of Labour for 6 of the 7 polls, which is as many for all of May. So there Labour is up by ~3pts and Greens up by~2.
The Cons are leaking votes to UKIP by an extra 2pts, but are showing signs of recovery.
All these factors contribute to Labour's current 4-5 pt lead.
Aren't the European results likely to depend as much on turnout as voter affiliation? Not sure accuracy at the European elections necessarily means accuracy at the General Election.
It's worked out pretty nicely, both on the track and with the betting.
@Financier Looking regionally and sub-regionally is possible, though what I am now working on will require refinement when others have done more work on the raw data than I have time to do right now.
These would be low turnout elections in which the Cons have managed to come third, a distant second and just about hold on to one of their safest seats, whilst getting 28% in the polls? Strangely, the anti-tory contingent aren't feeling too terrified right now.
Do know how much the characteristics of the Austrian track will affect fuel consumption, tyres and brakes, which were all concerns in Canada?
That's why some in the Labour ranks are speaking out about the party's direction. They can see what's coming down the line.
As a long time lurker that was one of the most hilarious moments of hubris I've seen in a long time, only nearly matched by TSE's incredible headline after the Newark election.
A look at the circuit diagram (linked below) suggests to me that whilst there are plenty of straights the corners at the end, whilst being rubbish 90 degree affairs quite often, are unlikely to be quite so hard on the brakes.
Canada had the hairpin and the chicane at the end of the long straight, both of which required heavy breaking from high speeds. The short lap also meant this occurred 70 times during the race.
Hmm. There were 4 fuel-critical circuits. Canada, Bahrain and, er, two others (maybe Australia was one). I think they're all out of the way.
No idea on tyres. They're using soft and supersoft, same as in Canada, but obviously it's an entirely different surface.
I wouldn't expect the same level of difficulties as in Canada. Tyres weren't too bad there, most did the predicted 2 stop and Force India half got away with a 1 stop strategy.
http://www.formula1.com/races/in_detail/austria_923/
But never mind.
10 minutes 10 seconds
the failure of the MGUs is not unrelated to the brake issues for Mercedes. The MGUs take a lot of energy out of the brakes, so when they failed it put a lot more stress on the brakes which caused them problems.
Bit weird the MGUs failed at exactly the same time on both cars.
So, if that hadn't happened it's entirely possible neither Mercedes would've had any issues with brakes at all.
Presumably you'll be sticking large amounts of cash on the 'generous' odds available on a Tory majority then? Your winnings should make up for the dire Scottish weather (come to London, glorious day again, great start to summer)
As for the "Labour were 'saved' by London" schtick - laughably use of statistics to suit your point. Were it not for the SE, Labour would have won, etc etc.
Scary Tories on the march.
Or not, as the case may be.
Only to get utterly spanked in a national election, coming third for the first time in the party's history.
But whatever gets you through the night.
Or using other ctossover firms the bounceback would be equally impressive?
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection and inaugural "JackW Dozen" Projection.
Con 315 .. Lab 271 .. LibDem 31 .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 3 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 11 seats short of a majority.
Note :
Lowest LibDem seat number.
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - Likely Con Hold
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - TCTC
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
The Tories still led in constituencies like Battersea, Hendon, Ilford North, Harrow East.
How about using the Ashcroft polls?
You should be warning us in intervals that are divisible by 12.
You must remember the days of Imperial, not this modern French metric thingy
We had an argument over this seat in 2010 which I won I recall.
I was having breakfast between "Projection Countdown" notifications.
Watford TCTC between Con and LibDem with Labour within another 1200. Effectively a three way marginal.
Sadly I don't have spare cash being asset rich and cash poor like most of the Tories I know. Any spare cash goes on trying (and failing) to keep assorted roofs watertight. Had I spare cash, I would certainly be betting on both Tories largest party NOM and Tory majority.
Incidentally I do hope you will heed the advice of our fellow traveller Charles and use a proper numbering system.
Do you think that Broxtowe could be the new Basildon? When we hear in the early hours of election night 2015 that Anna Soubry has held with an increased majority, we will know that Ed Milibland will never be First Lord of the Treasury.
The Lib Dems have suffered slightly more of a post-election hangover, perhaps set back by infighting over the botched coup by Lord Oakeshott and the widespread ridicule over the Clegg/Cable beer-pulling photo op, on 9.3%, down 0.4 points. UKIP support remained stable at record high levels, as they enjoyed a moment in the limelight around the European Parliament elections. We have them rising 0.2 points on last month to 14.9%, their highest support level to date.
http://sotonpolitics.org/2014/06/10/polling-observatory-37-no-westminster-polling-aftershock-from-european-parliament-earthquake/
Lots of issue questions in the current YouGov - only possibly interesting shifts are on education (Lab lead up 3 to 6) and benefits (from -2 to +2).
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/f1xw97wgfs/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-090614.pdf
antifrank said:
My first post since the latest round of elections:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/the-latest-election-round-what-have-we.html
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Quite a reasonable and in depth analysis of UKIP voting there, antifrank.
Three things to remember though:
1. 2013 was the first year that UKIP has stood in any UK wide election with express intention of gaining councillors and forming a foundation for further gains.
2. UKIP is the only party that is growing in actual membership percentage.
3. Newark was the first time that masses of activists and supporters came from all over the country to the call for volunteers (Eastliegh was only a foretaste).
Still agree with you that UKIP has a lot of growing and organising to do, and establishing new local party chapters is one of the agreed methods.
He hates the Tories more than he hates the Nats.
@IsabelOakeshott: Gordon Brown has criticised inept' Better Together campaign, but I'm told he refused to play full part cos he didn't want to work w Tories
I biked a mile from my house recently into open woodland. I saw rabbits, dragonflies and deer.
My wolves, sheep and high student analogy for the three largest parties [well, for now...] works well.
The projection indicates that Labour will overall perform marginally better in the Midlands and accordingly Nick Palmer has a little more wind in his sails. Clearly if Labour fail in Broxtowe then they'd be looking down the barrel of a potential net seat loss.
If I were looking for a "Basildon Moment" for Labour from the "JackW Dozen" I'd choose nearby Enfield North.
Interesting that those predicting a Tory majority are very often the same people who have no desire to bet.
Meanwhile we wait on for a thread on Labour's bounce back in the polls, following the crossover hysteria.
Crossover was an identifiable and important polling event on which posters here had money, so one wouldn't expect it to go unnoticed. And attention to it was largely due to a wannabe funny man on the left, not to the tories
As I say, rattled.
Perhaps you might advise PB of your own current seat projection ?
Labour largest party - around 10 short.
I'll do Fett's Four-Cast in the coming days.
As indeed it was for the US General Elections of 2008 and 2012.
While the end of this week is going to be really quite warm, the forecasts for further ahead do not suggest that this June has much chance of setting any records.
By comparison, the record warmest months in the 355-year Central England Temperature have been since 2000 for April, July, September and October, with top five places also recorded for the months of January, March, August and November.
The other laggard months are February, May and December.
@GoodwinMJ: We flagged Great Grimsby as most promising seat for #UKIP. Party just chose their candidate - an ex-Conservative ppc http://t.co/uAhjnrO6sw