And as we get closer to the election suddenly Cameron's knack of disaffecting large chunks of blue voters looks a bit stupid, and scare tactics aren''t bringing them back.
We shall see. An alternative possibility is that Cameron, having become PM in the most difficult economic circumstances since the Thirties and done a superb job, sees off Scottish independence, goes on to win the GE, and finally reworks our relationship with the EU and holds a referendum to close down the issue which has been festering for quarter of a century.
Fingers crossed. It might not work out, but it's the best chance we've got.
absolute tosh Richard and you know it.
Cameron has failed on his own terms to win a majority and may get a second term but only in a coalition. The Indyref will be won and he will have had little part in it, he's in no position to win the EU as he's spineless and as for the economy he's done next to bugger all. It's pathetic to watch how Conservative expectations have sunk so low that they depserately seek to claim credit for a natural turn in the economic cycle. The modern conservatives are losing the plot.
As opposed to the Tories in London, Scotland, Wales, Northern England, the urban midlands...
Except the Tories can be bothered to fight for seats in those areas.
Unlike Labour in Newark.
Yes. I remember the people's army flooding the streets of Manchester Central like it was yesterday. It was like a carpet of azure in Piccadilly Gardens.
The Indyref will be won and he will have had little part in it.
He played an absolutely crucial role: he called Salmond's bluff, and lots of people were (and some still are) predicting that he'd go down in history as the PM who presided over the dissolution of the United Kingdom. In fact I think it's more likely that he'll go down in history as the PM who prevented the dissolution of the United Kingdom (personally I'm not too fussed about this particular point, but others are).
The facts are that UKIP have now finished 2nd in 6 of the last 7 by Elections, almost all from a stnding start in places they had never done well before in.
It is almost a given that they finish 2nd when they have no roots in the seat, and that can only be good for them. Wait until a seat where they and the BNP scored 10%+ combined in 2010. If they dont win that then maybe we can say they have failed.
To use a football analogy, UKIPs by Election performances are a bit like West Ham going to the top 6 teams and getting 4 draws and 2 narrow defeats but playing well. The Euros is like winning the League Cup.
To criticise them by saying well thats only 0.75pts per game so its relegation form, would be to treat every games as if it were away to a top side, rather than thinking it was better than expected and a pointer that they will win when conditions suit them better.
Politics isn't like football though and in so far as it is you are always left like a hapless lower league side having been stuffed 4-0 trying to make our that because you passed well, or got in more tackles it was actually good. Yes UKIP seem good at coming a heroic second but they aren't getting that critical mass and the expectations are getting away from you. You can't keep pretending this time is the one then having to come up with post facto reasons why it really wasn't.
Couldnt disagree more.
You seem to be saying that it doesnt matter what kind of seat it is, UKIP should just win it or else its a failure. If they had come 3rd last night that would have been failure, but what happened was par for the course. UKIP were expected to increase their voteshare by 600% and they met expectations.
If a by Election was called in Thurrock, S Basildon & East Thurrock, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thanet South or North, Folkestone, Boston & Skegeness , Castle Point tomorrow I would expect UKIP to win and would consider 2nd place a failure.
No one was pretending this was the time. The earthquake Farage predicted was winning the Euros, which he did.
The media are reporting Newark as a safe seat that the Tories held but with a reduced majority, and that UKIP increased its vote many times over to finish 2nd. Its only people that are desperate for UKIP to go away that are claiming its an upset of some kind
Exactly right.
The PB Tories need to read Anthony Wells' analysis on UKPR and come back to us.
For a whole raft of reasons, which you, Richard T and I have charitably outlined today to the hard-of-reading, this was always going to be an easy Tory hold.
That they celebrate holding on to their 44th safest seat says it all.
The Indyref will be won and he will have had little part in it.
He played an absolutely crucial role: he called Salmond's bluff, and lots of people were (and some still are) predicting that he'd go down in history as the PM who presided over the dissolution of the United Kingdom. In fact I think it's more likely that he'll go down in history as the PM who prevented the dissolution of the United Kingdom (personally I'm not too fussed about this particular point, but others are).
He's ineffectual NOTB and has done little to position the blues for a recovery in Scotland. As a sourtherner he's given up on the place.
All a Kipper had to do to win applause at the UKIP meeting I visited in Bath was to mention Ted Heath was a liar or a villain. Bit like Marty Feldman shouting out Blucher to frighten horses in Young Frankenstein.
The Bath meetings had quite a few under 40s there, and plenty of women. Can't say I was impressed with the SW UKIP party list at the Euros, not great public speakers, but they did include a former academic on the platform who was a woman. Farage does have presence, but it does appear to be a catch all party of protest with an appearl to the a Non of The Above voters.
All a Kipper had to do to win applause at the UKIP meeting I visited in Bath was to mention Ted Heath was a liar or a villain. Bit like Marty Feldman shouting out Blucher to frighten horses in Young Frankenstein.
The Bath meetings had quite a few under 40s there, and plenty of women. Can't say I was impressed with the SW UKIP party list at the Euros, not great public speakers, but they did include a former academic on the platform who was a woman. Farage does have presence, but it does appear to be a catch all party of protest with an appearl to the a Non of The Above voters.
He's ineffectual NOTB and has done little to position the blues for a recovery in Scotland. As a sourtherner he's given up on the place.
You're a hard man, Mr Brooke! You want him to persuade the Scots of Tory charms, as well as all his other more-easily attainable achievements, such as mending the economy and sorting out the EU?
As an aside, it's by no means certain that you are even right on the narrow point:
I'm trying to put UKIP in some kind of historical context.
Are they 'doing well'? Sure, but that's a bland assessment.
How well are they doing? Compared to historical parties, more evidence of national support but failing to make that breakthrough that others did in seats they started just as far back in. Which means it has to call into question their ability to win seats at a GE.
With the hype (and UKIP have been hyping themselves plenty) comes expectations.
Other parties (and I can only think of SDP/Alliance etc.) have come on very strong, but faded away/slowed right down very quickly. That was a middle party -a amalgam of Labour and Tory that caused a lot of excitement because people thought they didn't have to decide any more, but ultimately fell flat.
In marketing terms, that is called the mushy middle and is to be avoided. UKIP are different -they are a divergence on the Tory right, so their genesis has left the Tories in the mushy middle (some Tories are foolishly delighted at this, relishing their new moderate status), so they will probably go the way of the old Liberal party, or the SDLP, or the UUP. Convergence products = hype and eventual failure. Divergence products = slow adoption but eventual success.
I'd fundamentally disagree.
In the 70s and 80s you had a party system that was significantly more polarised than the electorate, there was always a middle ground of voters who were under-served by parties fairly far away from them on the political spectrum.
The emergence/success of the SDP-Liberal alliance was a result of this ignored marketplace, of course there was a reaction. Since they became a threat on the inside flank of each party the two parties reacted by coming much more to the centre and fighting over the centreground.
In this way the Alliance has defined the last 30 years of British politics (and why you can find ex-Alliance members in both major political parties, from Millbank to No. 10).
(It also shows how UKIP may achieve things without much electoral success, but by moving the Tory party).
What this move to the centre has done is open up space on the outer flank of the Conservative party (to massively over-simplicate how the political spectrum works). that UKIP are now filling.
That said I'm skeptical how much demand there is to attract outside the Tories right flank (of course Tories are also trying to appeal to socially conservative Labour voters and like I siad, complicated).
It's not like there's no space for anything between Aldi and Waitrose.
He's ineffectual NOTB and has done little to position the blues for a recovery in Scotland. As a sourtherner he's given up on the place.
You're a hard man, Mr Brooke! You want him to persuade the Scots of Tory charms, as well as all his other more-easily attainable achievements, such as mending the economy and sorting out the EU?
As an aside, it's by no means certain that you are even right on the narrow point:
The facts are that UKIP have now finished 2nd in 6 of the last 7 by Elections, almost all from a stnding start in places they had never done well before in.
To criticise them by saying well thats only 0.75pts per game so its relegation form, would be to treat every games as if it were away to a top side, rather than thinking it was better than expected and a pointer that they will win when conditions suit them better.
Politics isn't like football though and in so far as it is you are always left like a hapless lower league side having been stuffed 4-0 trying to make our that because you passed well, or got in more tackles it was actually good. Yes UKIP seem good at coming a heroic second but they aren't getting that critical mass and the expectations are getting away from you. You can't keep pretending this time is the one then having to come up with post facto reasons why it really wasn't.
Couldnt disagree more.
You seem to be saying that it doesnt matter what kind of seat it is, UKIP should just win it or else its a failure. If they had come 3rd last night that would have been failure, but what happened was par for the course. UKIP were expected to increase their voteshare by 600% and they met expectations.
If a by Election was called in Thurrock, S Basildon & East Thurrock, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thanet South or North, Folkestone, Boston & Skegeness , Castle Point tomorrow I would expect UKIP to win and would consider 2nd place a failure.
No one was pretending this was the time. The earthquake Farage predicted was winning the Euros, which he did.
The media are reporting Newark as a safe seat that the Tories held but with a reduced majority, and that UKIP increased its vote many times over to finish 2nd. Its only people that are desperate for UKIP to go away that are claiming its an upset of some kind
The PB Tories need to read Anthony Wells' analysis on UKPR and come back to us.
Have you?
If UKIP had won or been a closer second it would have continued the “UKIP earthquake” narrative. As it is I think it might start playing into a “UKIP faltering” sort of narrative.
And:
Labour would have needed a swing of 16% or so to win Newark, the sort of swing that the Conservatives got in Norwich North and Crewe & Nantwich...... they aren’t an opposition that’s tearing away into the sunset, they are an opposition holding onto a relatively modest poll lead.
Betting tip. Take the 6/4 of 0 UKIP seats from Ladbrokes and mix it with 2/1 on 1-5 UKIP seats from William Hill.
It's a decent bet undermined by the miniscule amounts allowed to be wagered.
The High Street chains should be ashamed at the embarrassingly paltry amount that they regularly allow punters to wager.
Indeed I'd go so far as to say that they should as part of their operating licence be legally bound to allow a win on a single wager of a minimum of £100.
I agree.
I was an odds compiler for years and would rather get in trouble with the boss than lack the integrity to lay a bet I had priced up
The facts are that UKIP have now finished 2nd in 6 of the last 7 by Elections, almost all from a stnding start in places they had never done well before in.
Couldnt disagree more.
You seem to be saying that it doesnt matter what kind of seat it is, UKIP should just win it or else its a failure. If they had come 3rd last night that would have been failure, but what happened was par for the course. UKIP were expected to increase their voteshare by 600% and they met expectations.
If a by Election was called in Thurrock, S Basildon & East Thurrock, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thanet South or North, Folkestone, Boston & Skegeness , Castle Point tomorrow I would expect UKIP to win and would consider 2nd place a failure.
No one was pretending this was the time. The earthquake Farage predicted was winning the Euros, which he did.
The media are reporting Newark as a safe seat that the Tories held but with a reduced majority, and that UKIP increased its vote many times over to finish 2nd. Its only people that are desperate for UKIP to go away that are claiming its an upset of some kind
The PB Tories need to read Anthony Wells' analysis on UKPR and come back to us.
Have you?
If UKIP had won or been a closer second it would have continued the “UKIP earthquake” narrative. As it is I think it might start playing into a “UKIP faltering” sort of narrative.
And:
Labour would have needed a swing of 16% or so to win Newark, the sort of swing that the Conservatives got in Norwich North and Crewe & Nantwich...... they aren’t an opposition that’s tearing away into the sunset, they are an opposition holding onto a relatively modest poll lead.
Quite incredible that you would quote that bit about UKIP but snip the last line
"That wouldn’t really be fair – it was, after all, a pretty safe Conservative seat and UKIP increased their vote by 22% – but politics is not always fair."
A bit like the front page of the Mirror todday "Farage:I wont help disabled people again"
Referring to hiscomeback when they implied he had bedded a woman he was spotted holding hands with who turned out to be on crutches and he was carrying her bag
I'm not sure who I think is winning the great Nabavi V Kendrick debate but as a pinko-liberal-lefty I am glad that these two coherent right-wingers are currently divided
Twitter BBC Politics @BBCPolitics 8m Former cabinet minister Peter Hain will stand down as Neath MP at the next general election. http://bbc.in/SBuatF
I'm not sure who I think is winning the great Nabavi V Kendrick debate but as a pinko-liberal-lefty I am glad that these two coherent right-wingers are currently divided
You a leftie? You rarely seem to espouse many leftwing views!
I'm not sure who I think is winning the great Nabavi V Kendrick debate but as a pinko-liberal-lefty I am glad that these two coherent right-wingers are currently divided
The facts are that UKIP have now finished 2nd in 6 of the last 7 by Elections, almost all from a stnding start in places they had never done well before in.
To criticise them by saying well thats only 0.75pts per game so its relegation form, would be to treat every games as if it were away to a top side, rather than thinking it was better than expected and a pointer that they will win when conditions suit them better.
Politics isn't like football though and in so far as it is you are always left like a hapless lower league side having been stuffed 4-0 trying to make our that because you passed well, or got in more tackles it was actually good. Yes UKIP seem good at coming a heroic second but they aren't getting that critical mass and the expectations are getting away from you. You can't keep pretending this time is the one then having to come up with post facto reasons why it really wasn't.
Couldnt disagree more.
You seem to be saying that it doesnt matter what kind of seat it is, UKIP should just win it or else its a failure. If they had come 3rd last night that would have been failure, but what happened was par for the course. UKIP were expected to increase their voteshare by 600% and they met expectations.
If a by Election was called in Thurrock, S Basildon & East Thurrock, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thanet South or North, Folkestone, Boston & Skegeness , Castle Point tomorrow I would expect UKIP to win and would consider 2nd place a failure.
No one was pretending this was the time. The earthquake Farage predicted was winning the Euros, which he did.
The media are reporting Newark as a safe seat that the Tories held but with a reduced majority, and that UKIP increased its vote many times over to finish 2nd. Its only people that are desperate for UKIP to go away that are claiming its an upset of some kind
The PB Tories need to read Anthony Wells' analysis on UKPR and come back to us.
Have you?
If UKIP had won or been a closer second it would have continued the “UKIP earthquake” narrative. As it is I think it might start playing into a “UKIP faltering” sort of narrative.
And:
Labour would have needed a swing of 16% or so to win Newark, the sort of swing that the Conservatives got in Norwich North and Crewe & Nantwich...... they aren’t an opposition that’s tearing away into the sunset, they are an opposition holding onto a relatively modest poll lead.
@Luckyguy1983 The death of the Tory party has been prophesied far more than it has ocurred
True. But it hasn't ever had a serious flanking attack before.
I'm not sure it's got a massively serious one now.
That UKIP exists is serious enough. The bigger party should have stolen their clothes and rolled over them years ago. Killed the category. At the very least they could have killed them in Scotland by setting the Conservative party free from the CCHQ.
But in my opinion Cameron (like his idol Peel) always knew he would wreck the party. I just don't think he planned there would be a vibrant anti-establishment movement in place ready to take over when he did.
I'm not sure who I think is winning the great Nabavi V Kendrick debate but as a pinko-liberal-lefty I am glad that these two coherent right-wingers are currently divided
Nabavi isn't right wing he is a Cameron supporter
He drinks cocktails like a right-winger and that's good enough for me.
I'm not sure who I think is winning the great Nabavi V Kendrick debate but as a pinko-liberal-lefty I am glad that these two coherent right-wingers are currently divided
Nabavi isn't right wing he is a Cameron supporter
He drinks cocktails like a right-winger and that's good enough for me.
He along with Avery and Fitalass are also Europhiles. You will find whenever there is an anti EU rage being spouted by other PBTories, they keep their heads low. Usually they just disappear.
Their D-Day 70th Anniversary coverage was superb, and Peter Allen struck just the right tone.
He interviewed one of the soldiers, Bill who said he was one of the first lads onto the beech. Shot in the leg, he hid under a comrade as he couldn't carry on up the beech.
In the field hospital he was administered with Sodium Thiopental which made him tell the nurses how good looking they were! as they dealt with his leg and gangrene. He then returned to the field, crossing the Rhein near the end of hostilities. He had a witty, cheeky sense of humour but above all else was a heroic and brave man who would have laid down his life for our freedom, as so many of his colleagues did.
Then they cut to the Ode of Remembrance
They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old: Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn. At the going down of the sun and in the morning, We will remember them.
I'm not sure who I think is winning the great Nabavi V Kendrick debate but as a pinko-liberal-lefty I am glad that these two coherent right-wingers are currently divided
You a leftie? You rarely seem to espouse many leftwing views!
Neil corrected me once when I had written that he was a PBTory. The compromise was that he is a green Tory !
@Luckyguy1983 Their existence is an annoyance, but also a galvanising agent. It helps having the crazies outside the boat rather than inside and destabilising it.
The fact that Farage is now pitching left is a bonus, because it confuses the UKIP offer and will annoy the first wave kippers. That UKIP haven't caused vast havoc to the Tories and are now going left means that their ability to do much more to the Tories is limited.
I would agree, UKIP is increasingly populist on the left as well as on the right. To espouse such contradictory views sows the seeds of its own destruction. In the short term Cameron seems to have damaged his party, but he is right that the future will be in the socially liberal centre. The demographics of the country make that inevitable.
@Luckyguy1983 Their existence is an annoyance, but also a galvanising agent. It helps having the crazies outside the boat rather than inside and destabilising it.
The fact that Farage is now pitching left is a bonus, because it confuses the UKIP offer and will annoy the first wave kippers. That UKIP haven't caused vast havoc to the Tories and are now going left means that their ability to do much more to the Tories is limited.
In the 70s and 80s you had a party system that was significantly more polarised than the electorate, there was always a middle ground of voters who were under-served by parties fairly far away from them on the political spectrum.
The emergence/success of the SDP-Liberal alliance was a result of this ignored marketplace, of course there was a reaction. Since they became a threat on the inside flank of each party the two parties reacted by coming much more to the centre and fighting over the centreground.
In this way the Alliance has defined the last 30 years of British politics (and why you can find ex-Alliance members in both major political parties, from Millbank to No. 10).
(It also shows how UKIP may achieve things without much electoral success, but by moving the Tory party).
What this move to the centre has done is open up space on the outer flank of the Conservative party (to massively over-simplicate how the political spectrum works). that UKIP are now filling.
That said I'm skeptical how much demand there is to attract outside the Tories right flank (of course Tories are also trying to appeal to socially conservative Labour voters and like I siad, complicated).
It's not like there's no space for anything between Aldi and Waitrose.
An interesting analysis, but what is 'centre' is a totally abstract concept, defined by what is at either end of the spectrum. There were 'centrist' Nazis. A successful party redefines the centre ground.
Back to D day. Have been thinking about my Grandad all day, and did a speculative Google earlier. Have discovered a 4 hour interview with him on the Imperial War Museum website. He's been dead 8 years and yet here is is sat talking to me about getting his call up papers. Hours to listen to but with REME, 6th Airborne, Overlord, Market Garden, Palestine etc coming up its going to be fascinating and a bit emotional.
On D-Day: there was all the training and preparation too. A few years ago a friend and I went to Sheriffmuir (north of Stirling, and north of the Jacobite battlefield). There was built a replica of part of a Normandy sea wall and they had demonstrations of how to assault it. There are still - very faintly - U- shaped earthworks which were dummy landing craft, and then there is a long, long, moory slope up to the 'sea wall' which still shows the scars from shot, shell and demolition charges. Transposing that mentally to bare exposed sand was sobering.
@Luckyguy1983 Their existence is an annoyance, but also a galvanising agent. It helps having the crazies outside the boat rather than inside and destabilising it.
The fact that Farage is now pitching left is a bonus, because it confuses the UKIP offer and will annoy the first wave kippers. That UKIP haven't caused vast havoc to the Tories and are now going left means that their ability to do much more to the Tories is limited.
@ToryJim They (we!) aren't crazies. They stayed the same -it was the Party that left them. And they were the beating heart of the party. What is the Conservative Party now? They are bigger and better funded for the moment, but what else have they got? There's no finesse they currently have over UKIP that can't be acquired, no advertising budget that can't be outspent.
As for pitching left and right; the terms are becoming obsolete. There is a new spectrum -establishment, or anti-establishment.
Luckyguy1983 you are deluding yourself if you think UKIP is anti-establishment. Nigel Farage is a most perfect example of a product of the establishment. He went to a posh school, he is rich, an ex-stockbroker and has been a professional politician for 15 years which is at least half his entire working life given he is only 50. He has more in common with Oswald Mosley than Winston Churchill.
At present UKIP is pitching to the Alf Garnett end of the electorate having already seduced the Colonel Blimp wing of the Tory party. The Tory party will still be a major driving force in UK politics in 25-50 years time as it has been since its creation in 1685. It has been rebranded under Peel, Disraeli, Thatcher and others. It has been partially rebranded by David Cameron and no doubt in my lifetime it will be rebranded by a generation of politicians not yet in Westminster. UKIP on the other hand may not be more than a footnote in history by the end of the current decade.
It's sweet that you think you know my views better than I do.
It's not sweet. I simply base my view on what you openly say on here.
It's odd, because that's what I do to everyone. This being a political site where people erm espouse their views, from time to time.
Oh, you've got to be careful with that. I myself was informed I was a dribbling moron for daring to disagree with an opinion, because my views are worthless you see.
Of course I already know my views are worthless without being told, that's why I can be so free with them.
Luckyguy1983 you are deluding yourself if you think UKIP is anti-establishment. Nigel Farage is a most perfect example of a product of the establishment. He went to a posh school, he is rich, an ex-stockbroker and has been a professional politician for 15 years which is at least half his entire working life given he is only 50. .
One does not have to be a man of the people to be a man for the people, if I may paraphrase 'Gladiator' (yes, I get most of my inspiration from movies and tv shows).
I happen to agree that UKIP's anti-establishmentism is not as pronounced as they might like to think, at the least insofar as it relates to how unlikely it is that all its many elected representatives and candidates will, somehow, not display standard non-partisan political behaviours like the political classes of which they are seeking to enter, but Farage's background and carefully focused image does not speak to the truth or not of that.
@Luckyguy1983 Their existence is an annoyance, but also a galvanising agent. It helps having the crazies outside the boat rather than inside and destabilising it.
The fact that Farage is now pitching left is a bonus, because it confuses the UKIP offer and will annoy the first wave kippers. That UKIP haven't caused vast havoc to the Tories and are now going left means that their ability to do much more to the Tories is limited.
@ToryJim They (we!) aren't crazies. They stayed the same -it was the Party that left them. And
As for pitching left and right; the terms are becoming obsolete. There is a new spectrum -establishment, or anti-establishment.
I'm not as certain of the latter, but it is certainly true the left-right thing is increasingly bullcrap.
Why not have a referendum on keeping the monarchy ?
The referendum I would love to see would happen after the Queen dies: 'Do you want Charles to be king?'
That seems like the time most suited to him securing a Yes vote (also, could he campaign to keep the Monarchy, or would he have to sit that one out I wonder?), what with the likely nostalgic remembrance of the Queen's reign and lack of wish to tear down the system she stood for for so long.
Assuming the parties came to an agreement about changing the voting system, would they dare do so without a referendum, having established a possible precedent in the AV vote? I suppose if a majority in Parliament could agree on such a change, then probably a majority of the country wanted it or didn't care enough that they wouldn't complain to hard.
Why not have a referendum on keeping the monarchy ?
The referendum I would love to see would happen after the Queen dies: 'Do you want Charles to be king?'
That seems like the time most suited to him securing a Yes vote (also, could he campaign to keep the Monarchy, or would he have to sit that one out I wonder?), what with the likely nostalgic remembrance of the Queen's reign and lack of wish to tear down the system she stood for for so long.
Assuming the parties came to an agreement about changing the voting system, would they dare do so without a referendum, having established a possible precedent in the AV vote? I suppose if a majority in Parliament could agree on such a change, then probably a majority of the country wanted it or didn't care enough that they wouldn't complain to hard.
I don't agree that it would be the best time fir him to win a Yes vote and nothing seems to have stopped him campaigning politically yet Either he wins, in which case republicans can shut up for a generation, or he doesn't and there is - finally - a proper debate on what to do.
Comments
Cameron has failed on his own terms to win a majority and may get a second term but only in a coalition. The Indyref will be won and he will have had little part in it, he's in no position to win the EU as he's spineless and as for the economy he's done next to bugger all. It's pathetic to watch how Conservative expectations have sunk so low that they depserately seek to claim credit for a natural turn in the economic cycle. The modern conservatives are losing the plot.
The death of the Tory party has been prophesied far more than it has ocurred
The PB Tories need to read Anthony Wells' analysis on UKPR and come back to us.
For a whole raft of reasons, which you, Richard T and I have charitably outlined today to the hard-of-reading, this was always going to be an easy Tory hold.
That they celebrate holding on to their 44th safest seat says it all.
The Bath meetings had quite a few under 40s there, and plenty of women. Can't say I was impressed with the SW UKIP party list at the Euros, not great public speakers, but they did include a former academic on the platform who was a woman. Farage does have presence, but it does appear to be a catch all party of protest with an appearl to the a Non of The Above voters.
As an aside, it's by no means certain that you are even right on the narrow point:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/06/are-we-witnessing-the-strange-rebirth-of-conservative-scotland/
In the 70s and 80s you had a party system that was significantly more polarised than the electorate, there was always a middle ground of voters who were under-served by parties fairly far away from them on the political spectrum.
The emergence/success of the SDP-Liberal alliance was a result of this ignored marketplace, of course there was a reaction. Since they became a threat on the inside flank of each party the two parties reacted by coming much more to the centre and fighting over the centreground.
In this way the Alliance has defined the last 30 years of British politics (and why you can find ex-Alliance members in both major political parties, from Millbank to No. 10).
(It also shows how UKIP may achieve things without much electoral success, but by moving the Tory party).
What this move to the centre has done is open up space on the outer flank of the Conservative party (to massively over-simplicate how the political spectrum works). that UKIP are now filling.
That said I'm skeptical how much demand there is to attract outside the Tories right flank (of course Tories are also trying to appeal to socially conservative Labour voters and like I siad, complicated).
It's not like there's no space for anything between Aldi and Waitrose.
If UKIP had won or been a closer second it would have continued the “UKIP earthquake” narrative. As it is I think it might start playing into a “UKIP faltering” sort of narrative.
And:
Labour would have needed a swing of 16% or so to win Newark, the sort of swing that the Conservatives got in Norwich North and Crewe & Nantwich...... they aren’t an opposition that’s tearing away into the sunset, they are an opposition holding onto a relatively modest poll lead.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8856
We can neither confirm nor deny that this is our first tweet.
I was an odds compiler for years and would rather get in trouble with the boss than lack the integrity to lay a bet I had priced up
BBC Politics @BBCPolitics 8m
Former cabinet minister Peter Hain will stand down as Neath MP at the next general election. http://bbc.in/SBuatF
Did the earth move when College punctured his inflatable poll?
Can anyone remember who the Lib Dems were?
It's sweet that you think you know my views better than I do.
But in my opinion Cameron (like his idol Peel) always knew he would wreck the party. I just don't think he planned there would be a vibrant anti-establishment movement in place ready to take over when he did.
Their D-Day 70th Anniversary coverage was superb, and Peter Allen struck just the right tone.
He interviewed one of the soldiers, Bill who said he was one of the first lads onto the beech. Shot in the leg, he hid under a comrade as he couldn't carry on up the beech.
In the field hospital he was administered with Sodium Thiopental which made him tell the nurses how good looking they were! as they dealt with his leg and gangrene. He then returned to the field, crossing the Rhein near the end of hostilities. He had a witty, cheeky sense of humour but above all else was a heroic and brave man who would have laid down his life for our freedom, as so many of his colleagues did.
Then they cut to the Ode of Remembrance
They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old:
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning,
We will remember them.
At that point I was wiping away the tears.
Their existence is an annoyance, but also a galvanising agent. It helps having the crazies outside the boat rather than inside and destabilising it.
The fact that Farage is now pitching left is a bonus, because it confuses the UKIP offer and will annoy the first wave kippers. That UKIP haven't caused vast havoc to the Tories and are now going left means that their ability to do much more to the Tories is limited.
@Corporeal
interesting book review here on the rise of kipperism.
http://www.spiked-online.com/review_of_books/article/ukip-the-revolt-of-the-left-behind/15000#.U5IV_MlwaBY
https://www.academia.edu/2557798/THE_SHERIFFMUIR_ATLANTIC_WALL_AN_ARCHAEOLOGICAL_SURVEY_ON_PART_OF_THE_WHITESTONE
As for pitching left and right; the terms are becoming obsolete. There is a new spectrum -establishment, or anti-establishment.
It's odd, because that's what I do to everyone. This being a political site where people erm espouse their views, from time to time.
At present UKIP is pitching to the Alf Garnett end of the electorate having already seduced the Colonel Blimp wing of the Tory party. The Tory party will still be a major driving force in UK politics in 25-50 years time as it has been since its creation in 1685. It has been rebranded under Peel, Disraeli, Thatcher and others. It has been partially rebranded by David Cameron and no doubt in my lifetime it will be rebranded by a generation of politicians not yet in Westminster. UKIP on the other hand may not be more than a footnote in history by the end of the current decade.
Even if they fracture over Europe or anything else, one rump will survive and it will be the one with the money.
Of course I already know my views are worthless without being told, that's why I can be so free with them. One does not have to be a man of the people to be a man for the people, if I may paraphrase 'Gladiator' (yes, I get most of my inspiration from movies and tv shows).
I happen to agree that UKIP's anti-establishmentism is not as pronounced as they might like to think, at the least insofar as it relates to how unlikely it is that all its many elected representatives and candidates will, somehow, not display standard non-partisan political behaviours like the political classes of which they are seeking to enter, but Farage's background and carefully focused image does not speak to the truth or not of that.
On the other hand, I would happily impose STV for the House of Commons and multi-councillor wards without one.
Assuming the parties came to an agreement about changing the voting system, would they dare do so without a referendum, having established a possible precedent in the AV vote? I suppose if a majority in Parliament could agree on such a change, then probably a majority of the country wanted it or didn't care enough that they wouldn't complain to hard.
Some people rejected AV because it wasn't PR.