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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Euro election competition winner
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Euro election competition winner
Congratulations to Wulfrun_Phil to winning the competition, thanks to everyone who took part, and a big thank you to Mark Hopkins to setting up the website for the entries.
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"Black! Black in the mouth... Black! Like Inky the octopus that comes lolloping along... Mr Pinky hits his hammer. Hit! Hit! Hit! How far in the trunk, mummy? How far in the trunk? Glenda knows, Glenda knows! Equestrian cement! Equestrian cement! Underarm... You're in my telescope..."
In between the words, I could hear the man saying "sorry?" and "hello?" a few times. I managed to finish almost all of the entire script before he cut me off.
It made me feel a whole lot better after being grumpy and annoyed for the last week after the voters of Croydon had not only the stupidity to vote Labour in their own safe wards, but also the impertinence to impose a Labour council on the rest of us.
Sorry, have been busy last few days and weeks and months. Need a holiday!
Re: burqas, it's worth remembering that the religious underpinning for them is minimal at best. They were and are an explicitly *political* rejection of Western values.
The common usage dates back to Egypt in the late 19th century during the period of British "oversight". At the time they were mainly confirmed to a small group of desert tribes. The British soldiers had standing orders to remove the face covering from anyone wearing a burqa on the grounds that it was illiberal and oppressive to women. The result: they were adopted as a nationalist symbol that rejected British rule and Western values.
Upshot is that this isn't a question of liberal or illiberal. This is an attack on our basic values of everyone being able to participate in society on an equal footing. Don't want to ban them: fine. But make it a policy that to interact with public services you can't wear a burqa & create a safe harbour so any private company doesn't have to serve someone wearing a burqa if they don't want to.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100273908/the-war-games-are-over-and-its-the-tories-who-are-smiling/
Why on earth would Lord Rennard apologise for something that was untrue and only got up by C4 to harm the Lib Dems in the Eastleigh by-election?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/29/lord-rennard-apology-for-possibly-encroaching-on-activists-personal-space
Alex Salmond’s claim that Scotland is one of the richest countries in the developed world has been challenged in a study by Glasgow University academics which finds it is a middle-ranking economy with high levels of foreign ownership.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/29/scotland-wealth-alex-salmond-study
That said, the Tory message did seem much more focussed this time.
1. The men / women numbers show the Conservatives on 31/32 and Labour on 37/38. There is obviously a potential rounding issue here. If the poll gave a 37.6-31.4 split then it was effectively a 5 point lead, not 7, which would be quite similar to the previous days.
2. There is a particularly large number of LD to Lab switchers. LD 2010 voters split Lab 38 LD 24, Con 14, UKIP 11 and Green 10. Also a relatively high number of Con to UKIP switcher (19%) and Lab to UKIP switchers (9%), although not a dramatic rise.
Therefore there may be the potential for Labour to sustain a small lead in the short term if the LD chaos has pushed more switchers to Labour. However, as it dies down you would expect these to return to normal and the Labour position to fall back.
It does seem to reaffirm though the view that the GE will be decided by the level of LD to Labour and Con to UKIP switching.
I'd be shocked if there wasn't an unwinding of both as the election approaches.
Well I certainly expect it to unwind compared to that YG poll!
The question is how much unwind will happen? Personally I expect more unwind of the Con to UKIP switching than the LD to Lab switching. As the election becomes more of a contest between Labour and Conservative UKIP switchers will be pushed back whereas LD voters (certainly in the Lab / Con marginals) will be pushed to stay.
Though NickP was 236 ;-)
Con gratulations to Wulfren Phil, and Shadsy is a hard man to take money off!
Overall I came out £20 up, at least I got turnout right.
It's perhaps worth pondering that the key Western "value" which burqa-wearers "reject" is the preference for reason over tradition. I - and a few other older Peebies quite possibly including OGH - will remember (just) grandmothers who, whilst they didn't wear burqas, certainly organised their lives around their own cultural traditions and saw education as destructive of family values. It's only been fifty years or so since respectable Englishwomen left their homes bareheaded, after all.
He's tried before to win by avoiding the herd view and slipping through to win a surprise victory from a generally discounted result.
CON +33.1
UKIP -19.47
LAB +51.96
A decent Newark book.
38.88 was obviously an error.
Though in the clash between protection of cultural rights and womens rights I stand clearly on the side of women.
I think that certain civics teaching should be a compulsory part of the curriculum, in all schools including private ones, including equal rights for women and democratic values.
How many entries did he have? :
N. Palmer .. Nick Palmer .. Nick P .. Nicholas Palmer .. Nick Palmer EXMP .. N Palmer EXMP .. Peoples Judean Front for Nick Palmer .. Nick Palmer - Broxtowe's Choice.
Some voters may decide that the Lib Dems are not best placed to defeat the Tories, even in seats that the Lib Dems currently hold, because they see the way in which the Lib Dem vote is dissipating. It matters not whether these voters are wrong, but if the impression is created then it becomes self-fulfilling.
In FPTP victory is sometimes a matter of confidence in the way in which other voters will vote, rather than being a simple reflection of political opinion. This confidence can act either to dampen or amplify the underlying changes in political opinion.
Almost as much as anything else the Lib Dems fortunes rely on how well people think they will do.
But only 5% of the population thought the Lib Dems did better than expected according to YouGov.
And 63% thought UKIP did better than they expected.
As you say not everyone was expecting the UKIP win even almost everyone here had it priced as odds on.
That is simply tremendous Mr Loony - I have printed off a copy of your wonderful prose and it now sits beside the phone awaiting a recital by yours truly. I can barely wait, the excitement is such!
I'd keep such thoughts to myself naturally.
There's a bag of liquorice allsorts in it for you!
I do find the burqa debate strays into areas that sound quite crazy when you think them through. It always strikes me as if some of the justification is a little bit paternalistic as if we are doing something "for their own good" as if we should be arbiters of that. I don't have a particular issue with it being worn, of course in areas such as the courts and that there should be a presumption against it but in general I don't go around deliberately noticing it in an effort to be shocked.
1-4 CON
7-2 UKIP
20-1 Labour
I expect Labour to underperform the poll, while UKIP will improve but not by enough.
"A spokesman from HM Treasury said that today’s reports provide “further evidence that the government’s long term economic plan is working”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10863667/Triple-boost-for-Chancellor-as-growth-soars.html
There is something almost new Labourish in this constant repetition of this mantra. It has been evident at PMQs and interviews for a while. It is part of the new discipline and focus in tory campaigning that Hodges amongst others has noted.
It is not my favourite thing in politics to be honest but once again Osborne has learned a Mandelson trick and is applying it.
Hodges has, as might be expected, declared that the electoral campaign was a disaster for Labour and a triumph for the Tories.
What is interesting though, is that in the reportage, he does seem to be describing a more intelligent and motivated Tory ground campaign than previous elections. Anecdotally, there have been hints of this elsewhere.
Has there been a change ? Is there even perhaps a hint of a Jim Messina effect?
DavidL is eloquent and I agree: the problem is the mindset behind the Burqua not the garment itself.
Congrats, Mr. Wulfrun.
Alas, I did rather poorly. Not as bad as Clegg, of course, but still not very good.
As @kieran has pointed out below, today's YouGov is atypical of those for the month of May and specifically of 2010 VI splits.
Of 21 YG daily polls in May, only 5 have given a Labour lead >3; the average lead being: 2.8.
In the last 3 days, 2010 Cons have had a severe dose of UKIPitis - last three polls Con to UKIP being 19,20,18, compared to the previous four of 14,14,15,12 and a monthly average of 16.1. This has lowered the Cons retention to 73,72,74 compared to previous four of 79,77,76,80 and a May average of 76.1.
For the 2010 LDs, todays LD to LAB of 38 is the highest for the month compared to the previous 30,29,28,28,31,27 and a May average of 30.81.
Thus the LD retention of today's 24 is a 2014 low by 5pts - previous LD May retentions are: 32,31,31,37,33,39 with a May average of 33.11.
The LD drift to Green has grown as the month progressed as has the LAB drift to UKIP.
Are we seeing a new realignment after the EUROs?
BTW if any PBer would like my updateable spreadsheet of YG 2010 splits for 2014, I am happy to send OGH a copy or let me know, but I am not always on PB.
I agree completely. I have absolutely no problems with diversity in culture, language or anything else; in fact, I would hate the opposite. But complete separation from British life while living in Britain is fundamentally wrong and harmful. And we should say this and also be unafraid to state that the way we operate is fundamentally better than the way they do things in countries and cultures that actively oppress/discriminate against people based on gender, sexuality, colour, caste etc. Schools should teach it, politicians and others should preach it. You can have diversity and a fundamental set of values that everyone abides by. Part of that, though, is accepting that people are different and that they may choose to dress differently. Once you start to second guess their motives, you run into a whole heap of trouble.
Never underestimate the ability of Labour to mess up in the Euros, even when differential turnout due to local elections is helping them.
I'm worried that this could be a sting operation by Shadsy.
Funnily enough I don't think the Telegraph want a 'thoughtful critic'.
Edited extra bit: and McLaren are denying rumours Honda are considering buying a stake in the team.
Next year Honda will supply McLaren's engines, and only theirs. After that initial year I believe Honda may supply other teams as well.
The right balance between collective values and individual freedom seems to be to encourage values that we think should be uncontroversial without bossily telling people what that means for every aspect of their lives. A generous interpretation and the truth is that I can't remember. Perhaps, or perhaps I was just making a crap prediction...
Also of note was this bit: In every area where a new factory or major new business start-up is identified, voters will be told: “That’s more money in the pockets of local people and more money that’s being spent in your community.”
It reminds us that Conservatives now realise circulation of money matters, which is why cutting wages in poorer regions was a daft idea.
Not many finished above Shadsy and of those that did I recognise only one of PB's regular punters. This is worrying.
Mind you, I didn't notice an entry from JackW. Surely his would have outshone all others if he could have been ARSEd.
David Stirling of the LRDG (later SAS) in the Desert Campaign - WW2 and his men frequently used female dress when infiltrating the German lines; as did TEL in WW1when he went behind the Turkish lines.
So it becomes a question of true identity as the Israelis have learned.
Whilst places like the Lebanon and Iran have been used to more liberal female dress, it is noticeable that Qatar and Kuwait are tightening such rules for female tourists.
In the more conservative Arabic and Muslim cultures, I have very rarely met the whole family but have been restricted to the male members.
On head-covering, ladies' hats are now mainly seen at weddings and Ascot, but some UK churches such as the Strict Baptists will not allow a woman into their assembly unless her head is covered for which they give Biblical references. Te same applies to some Roman Catholic churches.
I am not too disappointed with 7th...
I really dislike the fact that hindquarters of all animals killed under kosher rules are passed unlabelled into the general food chain. I'm tempted to shift to pre-stunned halal just to avoid this.
I very much doubt Populus will confirm the shift later.
It reminds me of the Japanese and whaling. It's a dying industry, barely hanging on with government subsidies, sending out boats a long way at great expense to catch meat that hardly anyone wants to eat any more. A bunch of western countries decided it was barbaric and tried to stop the Japanese doing it, the Japanese got upset at being pushed around and the government dug in with more support. If everyone could just say, "Fine, catch whatever you like, we don't care" then STFU about it for a decade or two then they'd stop.
A word of warning in rates for all the yellow box p0rn in here
The BCC upgraded its UK growth forecast to 3.1pc for 2014, from 2.8pc. The UK economy has not shown annual growth of more than 3pc since 2007.
Robust growth means the BCC now expects the Bank of England to start raising rates in the first quarter of next year, two quarters earlier than previously forecast. It also upgraded its 2015 forecast to 2.7pc from 2.5pc.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Mating-seagulls-smash-glass-roof-new-Bristol/story-21164331-detail/story.html
Randy Gulls break glass roof at new hospital.
I was further heartened by the information that a lot of this was in IT and staff training, and fully expect a yellow box post from Avery.
Unfortunately (as many of you might have noticed) I have a tendency to a certain degree of cynicism.
Is this mood entirely unjustified?
http://www.microsoft.com/en-gb/windows/enterprise/end-of-support.aspx
Correlation is not indicative of causation of course..
It's not nasty at all - what I have said is the reality. Why religion should get special dispensation over and above any other cultural worldview is beyond me. Presumably you would have no problem with my pointing out the flaws in Stalinism?
Big apology to anyone I offended yesterday, I was in a foul mood, and I think I jumped the shark from spirited teasing to being a complete arse, so sorry if I got up your nose.
That said, 7%!?!?!
And, I can't find my entry on the spreadsheet, I thought I was in with a shot of top 20, but then again I might be talking hatstand?
"Follow our (often completely illogical and random) rules or suffer real pain in this life and eternal damnation and an eternity of horror in the next."
How that can be described as anything but psychopathic is beyond me.
How in God's name can a basketball team be worth $2,000,000,000?
Wrong. I would. You have lost this argument and are projecting. We should not have to pussyfoot around people's superstitions, be they the unwavering belief in a psychotic supreme being or a Great Leader.
Mind you, that's probably also the biggest factor in determining which football team they support.
Edit: For clarity- although you have phrased your comment as a question I suspect that you see all of these things as "rights"
Human rights breaches are now meaningless as an expression, because they cover anything from the horrific North Korean concentration camps to an inability to deport a convicted Italian murderer because he can't speak Italian.
It's a bit IngSoc, the way that terms have become broader and vaguer, and empty of meaning.
But then again I think Labour has a big split between it's bumpkin sticks and it's latte city vote, the former more receptive to UKIP. I was surprised Labour was on 27, thought they would be lower and I don't think they will get 26% in the final result (Take off 1% for Bus Pass Elvis etc)
In addition strictly speaking Sikhs can't eat any animal that was ritually slaughtered so it is a matter of religous choice/freedom to them that stuff should be properly labelled as halal/kosher.
"Capitalism gone mad"
It went to the funny farm ages ago.
Unfortunately it has become a religion along with consumerism and is brainwashed into our children.
*innocent face*, etc.