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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft marginals poll is out – and it’s great for Ed.
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft marginals poll is out – and it’s great for Ed.
Lord Ashcroft’s has published his marginal polling. The poll contradicts the findings of the ComRes marginals published earlier on this week, and the sample size here is nearly 26 times larger than the ComRes poll. This polling finds a 6.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour – enough to topple 83 Tory MPs and give Ed Miliband a comfortable majority.
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What needs to be determined is the degree to which shares in a low turnout election can be scaled up to a likely GE result.
Sam's comments on Ashcroft 29% in Thurrock vs 39% in Locals is a clear example of a difference that needs explaining/justifying.
That should keep Labour complacent for while.
A Labour councillor was asked about his response to the election.
He replied, "Bloody UKIP, coming over here, stealing our jobs". Simply brilliant and worth commenting on just to avoid it being orphaned at the end of the last thread.
Do we know the name of the Labour councillor? It would be a shame for the comment to be lost to "anon." or "attrib.".
As I wrote a thread about, UKIP voters were much more certain to vote than anyone else at this Euro/locals election.
So in a high turnout election they don't have as many medium motivation supporters pick up so their vote share declines.
Anthony Wells doesn't think it's such good news for Labour. He says, the average swing in national opinion polls during the period of this survey was 5.25% Con to Lab. In the Conservative-held marginal seats it was 5.5%.
In Labour-held marginal seats, it was higher, at 6.5%.
Do we know the name of the Labour councillor? It would be a shame for the comment to be lost to "anon." or "attrib.".
It was passed without name to me. I thought it amusing, but I have doubts as to whether it came from a real councillor.
''Outside London, the voters who are most optimistic about Britain’s economy are the constituents of the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer.''
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27556372
Who was the genius that thought that one up?
Plus Walsall North results should have been expected with the BNP scoring 8% there last time.
The only thing I recall about Stevenage is that it figured prominently in an episode of the Roger Moore 60s TV series 'The Saint'.
Do we know the name of the Labour councillor? It would be a shame for the comment to be lost to "anon." or "attrib.".
I think it's likely to stay anonymous.
It reveals an entitlement mindset, "I should get this because I am Labour/White/Whatever, not because I've earned it."
On another point, considering the rampage of UKIP at Thursdays locals, how the hell does anyone define a marginal nowadays?
I will now though!
Ashcroft ALWAYS underestimates UKIP.
@iainmartin1: Genius @LordAshcroft double bluff to calm Labour and secure Ed Miliband's position with this marginals poll...
@DPJHodges: If anyone thinks Labour's going to win 83 seats off the Tories they need their head examining.
It reveals an entitlement mindset, "I should get this because I am Labour/White/Whatever, not because I've earned it."
On another point, considering the rampage of UKIP at Thursdays locals, how the hell does anyone define a marginal nowadays?
I've seen it attributed elsewhere to a Conservative spokesman. I would guess that it was a joke.
Say party A has 100,000 postal voters who would be 9/10 certain to vote **without** postal votes then the **benefit** is 10,000.
Say party B has 80,000 postal voters who would be only 7/10 to vote without postal votes then the benefit is 24,000.
I am trying to find the data as we type!
The point about previous such polls not proving true in the end, but it's just hard to see how the Tories can reverse this. Ed M is not great, but he's too careful to have a disaster and keeps making popular announcements (even if they may or may not be very achievable) which should see him over the line, and the LDs will not recover enough to prevent that. In fact, if they do recover significantly it harms the Tories more anyway. UKIP still hurt the Tories more, and that they are split on the best outcome for 2015 makes believing they will flock back to the Tories silly - not because it won't happen to some degree, but because it needs to happen almost universally to let the Tories get a plurality again.
The Greens beating the Lib Dems tomorrow would be a very nice result for yours truly.
Perhaps Dan H should borrow a neurosurgeon's gown and turn up.
UNS is irrelevant, there is no national election to swing. Models based on 3 party politics are irrelevant - as demonstrated on Thursday. It's merely 650 separate fights in separate seats, where a strong local showing by LibDems or Ukip splitting the right or Labour being well organised decides the seat, not a theoretical proportion of a tiny subset of a national poll. You want proportionality then go PR. Under FPTP it's seat by seat, and in the seats needed for a majority Labour are well organised and we'll supported. Regardless of whether Ed is carp/doing well enough/a geek etc etc.
Places where we're in a strong 3rd, or a middling 2nd in safe Lab or safe con seats we're going to get killed is my guess.
Watch out for ^t characters!
This is particularly apparent for the Lib Dems in Scotland, but probably true of them in England also. Their seat count will only hold up to the levels that uniform national swing would predict on current polling if their poll ratings start to rise. (I expect that to occur, at least to some extent, as it happens.)
Yes thats what I mean
In every recent by election, Ashcroft has produced a poll that has underestimated UKIP, sometimes by 10% IIRC
Edited extra bit: ahem, that's 4.15pm, UK time.
Just the thought of it is the stuff of nightmares TBH.
National swing - 5.25%
Ashcroft Con marginals swing - 5.5%
Which is so close that it cannot possibly be statistically significant.
So whilst this is a very comprehensive piece of work by Ashcroft, it's actually told us precisely nothing over and above what we have from national polls.
By the way next time I think Ashcroft should just poll twice as many Con marginals and forget Lab marginals. Realistically Con gains from Lab are highly unlikely but looking at twice as many Con marginals would give a much better sample size - ie 28 seats instead of 14.
Pressure is building up on Clegg.
http://www.libdems4change.org/
It now has 150 LD members signed up wanting Clegg out.
It's either a brilliant piece of psephological discovery, or a load of nonsense. Recent polling and the locals suggest the latter. Fear in my gut suggests the former.
Are the Tories really headed back to 2005? This seems extremely unlikely.
LOL!
If anybody's read Sian Lloyds' (weathergirl) autobiography they'll know Lemit does have a tendency to be "away with the fairies" a lot of the time, especially when pissed, as according to Sian, he frequently was during their relationship.
I won't be putting up a pre-race piece until at least the Rosberg situation is resolved.
15 mins and we'll all find out if we're +1
First; this poll was conducted over six weeks and if week is a long time in politics then 6 weeks is an eon.
Secondly, although 26K people were contacted for the poll only 1K were canvassed for each constituency, which is far different to having 26K answer on each.
Thirdly, as always the suppositions are always spread rather thickly in any of the Lords disclosers.
The following is the goods lords latest list of ifs and buts:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/05/told-conhome-conference-battleground-poll/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=told-conhome-conference-battleground-poll&utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=b22d725ddd-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b70c7aec0a-b22d725ddd-66760489
Still waiting onwhat happens with Perez, Kvyat and, er, two others accused of blocking.
Sorry if this is too bland for you - I get the impression that some people are still crying over a few student paintings being burned.
You're of course right that 6 weeks is a long time and things do change, though the national polls are much the same now as six weeks ago. They could change markedly over the next two weeks as we see what the Euro result and Newark do.
If you bet on F1 I'd suggest preparing to back Red Bull to top score at 8 (Ladbrokes), and perhaps wait for confirmation.
Very hard cheese on the students who lost their work just as they were coming up to finals, too.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-27556659
http://www.gsa.ac.uk/about-gsa/library-learning-resources/archives-collections-centre/
*old meaning