politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the West

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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the Westminster hen house

Often success  equals performance minus anticipation, using Rallings and Thrasher’s projections for the locals, of Lab 490 gains, the Cons and Lib Dems 220 and 350 losses respectively, and UKIP to make 80 gains, so far it is a great set of elections for UKIP as they have impress results all over England, and for the coalition parties an as expected, and as good as Rallings and Thrasher were …

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DavidL

FPT
It remains a fact that despite UKIP's successes in the locals in these seats Labour will have 10x more councillors, the tories more than 7 times and even the Lib Dems 2.5x. And they will not control a single council. Impressive but a long way to go.

Quincel

The best part of local elections is how the morning after every party leader says that there has been a clear message that their party should carry on doing exactly what they planned.

Labour: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people want us in charge.
Tories: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people want more of our policies passed into law and are voting against the Lib Dem nonsense.
LDs: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people just don't understand all the good work we're doing - they want us to do even more.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. L, indeed, but as I mentioned on the prior thread, if the seat churn we've seen so far occurs again the next time these seats are contested UKIP would move into third (for these particular seats).

TheScreamingEagles

Quincel said:

The best part of local elections is how the morning after every party leader says that there has been a clear message that their party should carry on doing exactly what they planned.

Labour: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people want us in charge.
Tories: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people want more of our policies passed into law and are voting against the Lib Dem nonsense.
LDs: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people just don't understand all the good work we're doing - they want us to do even more.

Hopi Sen's take on it is brilliant as usual

http://hopisen.com/2014/election-night-what-they-didnt-say/

isam

FPT

Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

"He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

Prob about 9/4 in my book

SimonStClare

James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers

.@JohnMannMP attacks 'pointyheads' at top of Lab for 'disastrous strategy'. 'People like me and voters I represent are not being heard'

There was a 'strategy' ? - what was it, bacon butties and shrinking Clegg..?

AveryLP

FPT

SouthamObserver said:

AveryLP said:

RochdalePioneers said:

AveryLP said:

SeanT said:

GIN1138 said:

bigjohnowls said:

Looks like Labour have already passed their target of 150 gains.

Looks to me like at least 250 gains looks likely.

But well short of what the independent experts suggest they should be doing;

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/29/the-2014-rallings-and-thrasher-local-elections-forecasts/#vanilla-comments

Quite. Transparently poor spinning from Labour.

Worth bringing OGH's tweet forward to this thread:

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Prof Colin Rallings projection for May 22 locals

CON -160
LAB +500
LD - 340
Ukip ???

9:53 AM - 29 Apr 2014

And the ??? is why their "forecast" was a guess. As was Prof Fisher who gave Labour a projection of +130 but "doesn't have a figure for UKIP because his model doesn't cover it" according to The Guardian.

Two psephologists. Two Labour forecasts at opposite ends of the spectrum. Generated by two models which do not account for the fact that we are now in a 4 party world. In other words useless outdated guesses.

RP

Save your energy and imagination for finding a replacement for Ed Miliband.

There is no spin possible that can turn Labour's performance into a triumph.

And it is not the psephologists who are to blame.

Not a triumph, not a disaster. Steady as she goes. A hung parliament in 2015, Labour most seats very possible. UKIP emerging as the main opposition to Labour in many parts of the north, but not winning seats. But Ed is certainly a drag on the Labour vote.

SO

What today's results tell us is that Ed has lost the 2015 General Election.

What is unknown is whether UKIP will be able to save him by giving him back what he has lost.

Whatever the result, it is now out of EdM's hands and control.

anotherDave

DavidL said:

FPT
It remains a fact that despite UKIP's successes in the locals in these seats Labour will have 10x more councillors, the tories more than 7 times and even the Lib Dems 2.5x. And they will not control a single council. Impressive but a long way to go.

It's not just UKIP's wins though. Their second places identify targets for the next round of elections.

MarkSenior

Gateshead final figures Lab 18 seats Lib Dems 4 seats no seats changed hands
South Tyneside Lab 16 seats Con 1 seat Ind 1 seat Lab gain 1 from UKIP , Ind gain 1 from Lab

Pulpstar

isam said:

FPT

Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

"He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

Prob about 9/4 in my book

16/10/2013 Single To Win UKIP @ 16/1
Constituency Betting
Thurrock Pending £5.00

Thanks for the tip ^_~

TheScreamingEagles

For all those silly sausages who think Lab can defeat Clegg in Sheffield Hallam, here's an indicator, this is the Dore and Totley ward.


Labour Party: David Crosby
Votes: 842

Conservative Party: Alex Dale
Votes: 1603

Liberal Democrat: Martin Richard Smith
Votes: 2452

UK Independence Party (UKIP): Jason Christopher Sullivan
Votes: 861

Green Party: Rita Louise Wilcock
Votes: 437

TheScreamingEagles

isam said:

FPT

Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

"He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

Prob about 9/4 in my book

Great tip

SouthamObserver

AveryLP said:

FPT

SouthamObserver said:

AveryLP said:

RochdalePioneers said:

AveryLP said:

SeanT said:

GIN1138 said:

bigjohnowls said:

Looks like Labour have already passed their target of 150 gains.

Looks to me like at least 250 gains looks likely.

But well short of what the independent experts suggest they should be doing;

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/29/the-2014-rallings-and-thrasher-local-elections-forecasts/#vanilla-comments

Quite. Transparently poor spinning from Labour.

Worth bringing OGH's tweet forward to this thread:

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Prof Colin Rallings projection for May 22 locals

CON -160
LAB +500
LD - 340
Ukip ???

9:53 AM - 29 Apr 2014

And the ??? is why their "forecast" was a guess. As was Prof Fisher who gave Labour a projection of +130 but "doesn't have a figure for UKIP because his model doesn't cover it" according to The Guardian.

Two psephologists. Two Labour forecasts at opposite ends of the spectrum. Generated by two models which do not account for the fact that we are now in a 4 party world. In other words useless outdated guesses.

RP

Save your energy and imagination for finding a replacement for Ed Miliband.

There is no spin possible that can turn Labour's performance into a triumph.

And it is not the psephologists who are to blame.

Not a triumph, not a disaster. Steady as she goes. A hung parliament in 2015, Labour most seats very possible. UKIP emerging as the main opposition to Labour in many parts of the north, but not winning seats. But Ed is certainly a drag on the Labour vote.

SO

What today's results tell us is that Ed has lost the 2015 General Election.

What is unknown is whether UKIP will be able to save him by giving him back what he has lost.

Whatever the result, it is now out of EdM's hands and control.

I think that was always the case.

I remain very surprised that given his undoubted crapness, Labour's general and palpable weakness, and a recovering economy the Tories are not huge favourites to win an outright majority next year. Making the GE all about Ed is probably their only realistic hope now.

isam

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 35m
Isn't it wonderful to hear the establishment parties now saying they must listen to the voters concerns #doh

Grandiose

54% in according to the BBC and the Conservatives are heading for 250 losses, LibDems 280, UKIP 185 gains, Labour 315, on the naive measure. A small variation on the forecast at the 45% stage.

Millsy

Until Ukip actually control a council they haven't really had a breakthrough

OblitusSumMe

The votes for UKIP in Rotherham raise the possibility of UKIP taking seats from all three of the main Westminster parties at the general election.

That would be quite something.

Morris_Dancer

Thailand: former PM Yingluck Shinawatra is being held at a camp by the army:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27544972

Sunil_Prasannan

PB's Dr Fox won't like the thread title

dr_spyn

Red on Red Ed.

http://order-order.com/2014/05/23/in-quotes-labour-mps-line-up-to-turn-fire-on-miliband/

Quincel

Grandiose said:

54% in according to the BBC and the Conservatives are heading for 250 losses, LibDems 280, UKIP 185 gains, Labour 315, on the naive measure. A small variation on the forecast at the 45% stage.

Given R&T grossly underestimated UKIP last time and this, over 300 gains for Labour wouldn't actually be that shabby. Though if they were a stronger opposition they'd be clearing 400 with ease, there's no denying it.

Sunil_Prasannan

These Locals are but an electoral appetiser before Sunday's European Psephological Banquet!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Me, depends where they target. Farage was stating the purples would heavily target individual seats, so hopefully they won't go for the broad and shallow nonsense which they went for in the recent past.

MarkSenior

Lib Dems retain control of Three Rivers DC 1 ward recounting with 3 seats but currently stands as LD having 21 seats Con 12 seats Lab 3 seats

OblitusSumMe

isam said:

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 35m
Isn't it wonderful to hear the establishment parties now saying they must listen to the voters concerns #doh

Not really. Sounds like pretty much word for word what they said after the 2009 elections.

RobD

Have updated the results spreadsheet for most of the newly declared councils:
http://goo.gl/4AJwpD

HurstLlama

A fair bit of talk about how we are now entering an age of a 4 (main) parties. Perhaps an alternative view might that we are not, we are remaining with three (main) parties, just the third party is being replaced with a new one. It is a process that will undoubtedly take a while but in terms of popular support (and membership) the Lib Dems are, currently, being overhauled by the UKIP.

The good Dr. Sox, medicus of this parish, said earlier that he was confident that the Lib Dems had a bright future as the sole sensible party of the centre and were just going through a rough patch. I dare say that nearly a hundred years ago Liberals were saying much the same thing with regard to the rise of the Labour Party, but this time they are starting from a much lower base.

I don't know, I could be completely wrong (I often am), but I do think there is a change of mood going on and it will not necessarily be to the Lib Dems advantage.

NickPalmer

Nuanced comments from ComRes:

http://comresupdates.eu.com/DCJ-2HIUH-F21LMD8E11/cr.aspx

Sunil_Prasannan

Ed puts the Red into Redbridge?

Quincel

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Me, depends where they target. Farage was stating the purples would heavily target individual seats, so hopefully they won't go for the broad and shallow nonsense which they went for in the recent past.

In a sense I think UKIP would be fortunate if they come close but not too close in some Labour seats. It might make Labour make the mistake again of thinking UKIP only threaten the Tories.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Spyn, are you suggesting he's Mili no mates?

Richard_Tyndall

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 35m
Isn't it wonderful to hear the establishment parties now saying they must listen to the voters concerns #doh

Not really. Sounds like pretty much word for word what they said after the 2009 elections.

I think he was being sarcastic.

JackW

Nigel Farage should be mindful that a fox in the hen house tends to be hunted down and shot dead.

Tally Ho !!

Pulpstar

RobD said:

Have updated the results spreadsheet for most of the newly declared councils:
http://goo.gl/4AJwpD

That's almost as tabtacular as my betting spreadsheet.

Which is due a reconciliation after the Euros.

SandyRentool

Morris_Dancer said:

Thailand: former PM Yingluck Shinawatra is being held at a camp by the army:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27544972

It could be you next, Mr Blair.

OblitusSumMe

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Me, depends where they target. Farage was stating the purples would heavily target individual seats, so hopefully they won't go for the broad and shallow nonsense which they went for in the recent past.

Targeting will be very important for UKIP, no doubt about it, but I'd suggest a pretty decent target list would start with the following three seats: Thurrock (Conservative), Eastleigh (Lib Dem) and Rotherham (Labour).

Chuck in South Thanet (Conservative) as Farage's personal target and it still looks a lot more balanced then the political commentariat give credit for.

Morris_Dancer

I'm not Tony Blair! What a thing to say, Mr. Rentool.

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 35m
Isn't it wonderful to hear the establishment parties now saying they must listen to the voters concerns #doh

It would be even more wonderful if there was any person on this earth who could articulate how exactly the voters' concerns could be addressed, other than by the government doing what it is already doing or (in the case of the Tories) plans to do.

MarkSenior

MarkSenior said:

Lib Dems retain control of Three Rivers DC 1 ward recounting with 3 seats but currently stands as LD having 21 seats Con 12 seats Lab 3 seats

Final ward splits 2 LD 1 Con final result LD 23 Con 13 Lab 3

SandyRentool

Morris_Dancer said:

I'm not Tony Blair! What a thing to say, Mr. Rentool.

Not you - you, you - him! If you know what I mean.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

I'm not Tony Blair! What a thing to say, Mr. Rentool.

I see the similarities between you and a young Tony Blair.

Very articulate with words, very popular, and making a huge blunder for which you won't agree was a mistake (Iraq and thinking Hannibal was any good, and better than Caesar)

AveryLP

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ed puts the Red into Redbridge?

Nige puts the age into Dagenham?

Helmer supplies the Barking.

MarkSenior

Labour gain control of Crawley council

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

FPT

Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

"He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

Prob about 9/4 in my book

Great tip

Thank you

South Basildon & East Thurrock was 20/1, but I cant seem to find it now.. that is a decent bet too in double figures.

Romford, Hx & Upminster and Dagenham & Rainham are worth keepeing an eye on if anyone prices them up too, especially if UKIP does better than expected in Havering.. I wouldnt mind betting they win the council


EDIT: Maybe not!!

http://democracy.havering.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=3&RPID=1001185700

JackW

MarkSenior said:

Labour gain control of Crawley council

Mark, any news from Watford Council ?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, sadly, I'm far poorer than Blair

Not sure about the popular bit either. On the other hand, Demosthenes was popular, and that didn't work out very well for Athens.

Richard_Tyndall

NickPalmer said:

Nuanced comments from ComRes:

http://comresupdates.eu.com/DCJ-2HIUH-F21LMD8E11/cr.aspx

Good, balanced overview. But I can't help noticing that the author himself doesn't look old enough to vote (lucky b*gger)

Ishmael_X

Sunil_Prasannan said:

These Locals are but an electoral appetiser before Sunday's European Psephological Banquet!

I think An Independence could surprise us all. It appeals to the dim Kipper, the drunk, the frivolous and the NOTA-and-don't-like-Farage-either. If it also gets some of the specifically bien-pensant Farage-haters, that's quite a lot of votes. And it might get that, because it is a much more vindictive way of spoiling Farage's day than boringly voting Lib/Lab/Con.

TheScreamingEagles

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

FPT

Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

"He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

Prob about 9/4 in my book

Great tip

Thank you

South Basildon & East Thurrock was 20/1, but I cant seem to find it now.. that is a decent bet too in double figures.

Romford, Hx & Upminster and Dagenham & Rainham are worth keepeing an eye on if anyone prices them up too, especially if UKIP does better than expected in Havering.. I wouldnt mind betting they win the council

Is a pity no bookie has priced up Rotherham

16/1 on UKIP to win Grimsby looks good.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Tyndall, there are worse things than looking older than you are (says the rapidly balding morris dancer).

Morris_Dancer

Dr. X, I hope not. The name and the tagline both look very dubious to my eyes.

Richard_Tyndall

Ishmael_X said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

These Locals are but an electoral appetiser before Sunday's European Psephological Banquet!

I think An Independence could surprise us all. It appeals to the dim Kipper, the drunk, the frivolous and the NOTA-and-don't-like-Farage-either. If it also gets some of the specifically bien-pensant Farage-haters, that's quite a lot of votes. And it might get that, because it is a much more vindictive way of spoiling Farage's day than boringly voting Lib/Lab/Con.

Given the history of some of its candidates you missed out 'the racist' from your list of people it might appeal to.

MarkSenior

JackW said:

MarkSenior said:

Labour gain control of Crawley council

Mark, any news from Watford Council ?

Still counting , they counted the mayoral votes first , Dorothy Thornhill re elected easily .

JackW

BBC - LibDem HOLD Watford

No further details.

dyedwoolie

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Me, depends where they target. Farage was stating the purples would heavily target individual seats, so hopefully they won't go for the broad and shallow nonsense which they went for in the recent past.

Targeting will be very important for UKIP, no doubt about it, but I'd suggest a pretty decent target list would start with the following three seats: Thurrock (Conservative), Eastleigh (Lib Dem) and Rotherham (Labour).

Chuck in South Thanet (Conservative) as Farage's personal target and it still looks a lot more balanced then the political commentariat give credit for.

They would do well to look at Castle Point if they can Hoover up Bob Spinks 2010 vote, Great Yarmouth, and from Labour some of the declining former safe seats like Morley and Outwood, Great Grimsby and the like. from the Lib Dems, hammer Cornwall.

Millsy

Huntingdonshire remains Tory controlled, Ukip only took 2 seats, thought they would do better here

BobaFett

Typically for this forum, lots of "Labour doing worse than expected"* stuff. Very little mention that the Tories are also doing worse than expected*


*By Rallings.

kjohnw

Michael Howard won 13 councils and 174 seats on 2004 a year before GE. local elections are a tool for bashing the government not necessarily an indicator of the next GE result, infact does anyone know the last time an opposition was only 5% ahead 12 months before the GE and went on to win?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Woolie, I'd be greatly surprised if UKIP could win here. They could make a strong step forward, but a win is very unlikely, I think.

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

FPT

Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

"He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

Prob about 9/4 in my book

Great tip

Thank you

South Basildon & East Thurrock was 20/1, but I cant seem to find it now.. that is a decent bet too in double figures.

Romford, Hx & Upminster and Dagenham & Rainham are worth keepeing an eye on if anyone prices them up too, especially if UKIP does better than expected in Havering.. I wouldnt mind betting they win the council

Is a pity no bookie has priced up Rotherham

16/1 on UKIP to win Grimsby looks good.

Yes they have won 5 seats there I think?

BobaFett

Crawley: More evidence of Labour's "Southern Discomfort"?

Labour seem to be having a decent day in the South. It's the north where they haven't done as well...

Sean_F

Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

JackW

MarkSenior said:

JackW said:

MarkSenior said:

Labour gain control of Crawley council

Mark, any news from Watford Council ?

Still counting , they counted the mayoral votes first , Dorothy Thornhill re elected easily .

Thanks Mark .... The Beeb just flashed LibDem HOLD Watford.

not_on_fire

A brilliant job done by UKIP of splitting the Tory vote in my local ward, causing 3 Lib Dems and 0 Conservatives to be elected:

http://moderngov.kingston.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=65&RPID=13339778

The combined total of any of the Tory and Ukip candidates would have defeated all of the Lib Dems. I wonder if we will see similar results in the GE next year?

TheWatcher

BobaFett said:

Typically for this forum, lots of "Labour doing worse than expected"* stuff. Very little mention that the Tories are also doing worse than expected*


*By Rallings.

Oh Gawd, Whining Bob's back.

Richard_Tyndall

not_on_fire said:

A brilliant job done by UKIP of splitting the Tory vote in my local ward, allowing 3 Lib Dems to be elected:

http://moderngov.kingston.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=65&RPID=13339778

The combined total of any of the Tory and Ukip candidates would have defeated any of the Lib Dems. I wonder if we will see similar results in the GE next year?

Looking at those vote totals I think it would be more accurate to say that in two of the three cases it was the Tories who split the UKIP vote.

isam

Libs doing well in Romford haha!

Party name Seats won % of votes
Conservative Party 3 35%
UKIP Local Residents 0 26%
Pettits Res Assoc 0 21%
Labour Party 0 17%
Liberal Democrat 0 < 1%

taffys

A brilliant job done by UKIP of splitting the Tory vote in my local ward, allowing 3 Lib Dems to be elected:

Commiserations must be very frustrating

JackW

Sean_F said:

Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

Ishmael_X

Richard_Tyndall said:

Ishmael_X said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

These Locals are but an electoral appetiser before Sunday's European Psephological Banquet!

I think An Independence could surprise us all. It appeals to the dim Kipper, the drunk, the frivolous and the NOTA-and-don't-like-Farage-either. If it also gets some of the specifically bien-pensant Farage-haters, that's quite a lot of votes. And it might get that, because it is a much more vindictive way of spoiling Farage's day than boringly voting Lib/Lab/Con.

Given the history of some of its candidates you missed out 'the racist' from your list of people it might appeal to.

I think the number of votes it has got for its actually policies, if anyone knows what they are, will be statistically insignificant.

Richard_Tyndall

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

Is Voldemort standing for the Tories?

FrankBooth

The thing is there were all those people saying that labour was struggling in the south thanks to Miliband going on about the 'north south divide'. Apparently Ed's 'lurch to the left' had alienated southern voters. Yet the bigger problems for Labour seem to be in the north. Front page of The Western Mail suggests Labour and Ukip are in for a photo finish to see who tops the poll in Wales for the Euros. I have my doubts, as Labour not winning would be remarkable; but who knows? Labour certainly have problems in their heartlands - outside London.

dyedwoolie

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Woolie, I'd be greatly surprised if UKIP could win here. They could make a strong step forward, but a win is very unlikely, I think.

Where are you Morris?

Quincel

Richard_Tyndall said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

Is Voldemort standing for the Tories?

Neil Hamilton lost his council bid.

JackW

Richard_Tyndall said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

Is Voldemort standing for the Tories?

I rather fear he is ....

SimonStClare

isam said:

Libs doing well in Romford haha!

Now now, Mr Isam, no gloating - BTW, hope your cat is feeling a little better today since Barbara Roche has been removed from the airwaves. ; )

dyedwoolie

Beeb kicking Vince out in Twickers! Lol

isam

Hmm this aint good

Boris Watch ‏@BorisWatch 1m

UKIP SURGE IN HAVERING AS TORIES TAKE 6 NIL LEAD IN SEATS

Richard_Tyndall

Ishmael_X said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Ishmael_X said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

These Locals are but an electoral appetiser before Sunday's European Psephological Banquet!

I think An Independence could surprise us all. It appeals to the dim Kipper, the drunk, the frivolous and the NOTA-and-don't-like-Farage-either. If it also gets some of the specifically bien-pensant Farage-haters, that's quite a lot of votes. And it might get that, because it is a much more vindictive way of spoiling Farage's day than boringly voting Lib/Lab/Con.

Given the history of some of its candidates you missed out 'the racist' from your list of people it might appeal to.

I think the number of votes it has got for its actually policies, if anyone knows what they are, will be statistically insignificant.

It is not so much the policies - about which most people will not have a clue - more the fact that a fair few of its candidates were kicked out of UKIP for racist comments or for trying to foster links between UKIP and the BNP.

I find it amusing that those who say the don't want to vote UKIP because they are racist are in some cases choosing instead to vote for the racist element that got kicked out of UKIP. Shows the level of intelligence of those voters.

TheScreamingEagles

Please put down any objects before reading this twitter exchange

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 6m

Ed puts the Red into Redbridge? #vote2014

great kahn ‏@genghisthekahn 1m

@Sunil_P2 Goodness knows what he would do in Scunthorpe.

dyedwoolie

feather stone gone, hahaha

MaxPB

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 35m
Isn't it wonderful to hear the establishment parties now saying they must listen to the voters concerns #doh

It would be even more wonderful if there was any person on this earth who could articulate how exactly the voters' concerns could be addressed, other than by the government doing what it is already doing or (in the case of the Tories) plans to do.

In London it is very easy to identify policies that people will respond to. Help Generation Rent. Build low cost housing and limit sales to people on the basic rate. That goes for a lot of urban areas nof just London. Generation rent should be natural Tory targets, decent income levels well educated etc... But they are stuck in a rental market paying off some arsehole's buy-to-let mortgage and the government have left this generation to rot in the rental market. HtB is completely useless for London so the current prescription falls on deaf ears. In areas where generation rent have a big presence the Tories have done poorly. They must govern in the interests of normal people and not for bloody landlords looking for easy returns by buying up London property.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Woolie, Morley & Outwood, seat of Balls.

Richard_Nabavi

Ishmael_X said:

I think the number of votes it has got for its actually policies, if anyone knows what they are, will be statistically insignificant.

I took the trouble to find out, out of curiosity. Their policies are identical to UKIP's, for all practical purposes. The only point of disagreement seems to be that they want the UK to leave the EU immediately, whereas (they claim) UKIP wants to use the Lisbon Treaty procedure which takes two years. It seems an odd point to go to the trouble of setting up a whole political party for, but there we go.

Danny565

FrankBooth said:

The thing is there were all those people saying that labour was struggling in the south thanks to Miliband going on about the 'north south divide'. Apparently Ed's 'lurch to the left' had alienated southern voters. Yet the bigger problems for Labour seem to be in the north. Front page of The Western Mail suggests Labour and Ukip are in for a photo finish to see who tops the poll in Wales for the Euros. I have my doubts, as Labour not winning would be remarkable; but who knows? Labour certainly have problems in their heartlands - outside London.

Exactly what I've been saying for ages. The Westminster media's narrative that Labour have a problem with southerners and the middle class has always been laughably moronic and completely out of step with the reality. Their problem is the exact opposite: far from middle class people fretting about the deficit and thinking Labour are loony lefties, the real problem is working-class people thinking Labour are middle-class sellouts who would not do anything to help the poor and who suck up to the elite.

Millsy

BBC going through various constituencies where Lib Dems lost on the vote yesterday - Solihull, Cambridge, Twickenham, Horney & Wood Green

dyedwoolie

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Woolie, Morley & Outwood, seat of Balls.

I would too, buts it's a good target. It was an overachieve for the 2010 Tories, there's a BNP presence to squeeze and Labour are declining there. A 25% and one more heave might take it in 2020

AlastairMeeks

Some of you are far too unadventurous in your UKIP bets. I have them to win Waveney at 50/1, Hastings & Rye at 100/1 and Blackpool North & Cleveleys at 250/1.

currystar

Interesting results in Southampton, Lab -2 and Con +2, No Ukip seats. Should make Southampton Itchen very interesting next year. Labour should not be losing seats at this time in the electoral cycle in Southampton. Again am very surprised UKIP didn't win any here.

taffys

In London it is very easy to identify policies that people will respond to

Absolutely, Mr Max. Do you think it would help if the tories also...

1. cut personal income taxes further

2. Hiked the 'no stamp duty' threshold to, say, half a million?

JackW

BBC -LAB LOSE NE Lincolnshire

dyedwoolie

currystar said:

Interesting results in Southampton, Lab -2 and Con +2, No Ukip seats. Should make Southampton Itchen very interesting next year. Labour should not be losing seats at this time in the electoral cycle in Southampton. Again am very surprised UKIP didn't win any here.

*whistles* someone tipped Soton for a 2015 Tory gain earlier :-D

Sean_F

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

Richard_Tyndall

Quincel said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

Is Voldemort standing for the Tories?

Neil Hamilton lost his council bid.

I have always considered him more of a Peter Pettigrew character (the untrustworthy rat for those of you who don't get the HP reference). Or perhaps for LOTR references more of a Dweomer Wormtongue character.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Woolie, the Conservatives are 1,000 votes only adrift of victory. They and Labour will probably put quite a bit into the seat. UKIP may well have lower hanging fruit to pick elsewhere.

OblitusSumMe

BobaFett said:

Typically for this forum, lots of "Labour doing worse than expected"* stuff. Very little mention that the Tories are also doing worse than expected*


*By Rallings.

It would be informative and useful if you would directly compare the figures. Providing the balance you seek by adding some value to the site in that way might be better than carping that people aren't saying things that you approve of.

Rallings projection (from the tweet that TSE reposted to the previous thread), compared to results from the BBC after 94 councils.

Conservative -160 predicted [-156 actual]
Labour +500 [+180]
Lib Dems -340 [-168]
UKIP ??? [+122]

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

Some of you are far too unadventurous in your UKIP bets. I have them to win Waveney at 50/1, Hastings & Rye at 100/1 and Blackpool North & Cleveleys at 250/1.

Because I was bored, I just calculated what a £25 accumulator would get you (if bookies allowed accumulators on seats)

£32,322,525

Smarmeron

Spin spin spin the vote
Firmly for your team
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily
Life is but a dream

Sean_F

JackW said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

Is Voldemort standing for the Tories?

I rather fear he is ....

Not yet. Great Yarmouth is 6 UKIP, 1 Conservative, 2 Labour, with 4 to declare.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Tyndall, surely Grima? Are you thinking of the Dwemer from the Elder Scrolls?