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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the West

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the Westminster hen house

Often success  equals performance minus anticipation, using Rallings and Thrasher’s projections for the locals, of Lab 490 gains, the Cons and Lib Dems 220 and 350 losses respectively, and UKIP to make 80 gains, so far it is a great set of elections for UKIP as they have impress results all over England, and for the coalition parties an as expected, and as good as Rallings and Thrasher were …

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    FPT
    It remains a fact that despite UKIP's successes in the locals in these seats Labour will have 10x more councillors, the tories more than 7 times and even the Lib Dems 2.5x. And they will not control a single council. Impressive but a long way to go.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    The best part of local elections is how the morning after every party leader says that there has been a clear message that their party should carry on doing exactly what they planned.

    Labour: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people want us in charge.
    Tories: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people want more of our policies passed into law and are voting against the Lib Dem nonsense.
    LDs: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people just don't understand all the good work we're doing - they want us to do even more.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. L, indeed, but as I mentioned on the prior thread, if the seat churn we've seen so far occurs again the next time these seats are contested UKIP would move into third (for these particular seats).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Quincel said:

    The best part of local elections is how the morning after every party leader says that there has been a clear message that their party should carry on doing exactly what they planned.

    Labour: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people want us in charge.
    Tories: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people want more of our policies passed into law and are voting against the Lib Dem nonsense.
    LDs: There's been a very clear message against the government, clearly people just don't understand all the good work we're doing - they want us to do even more.

    Hopi Sen's take on it is brilliant as usual

    http://hopisen.com/2014/election-night-what-they-didnt-say/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    FPT

    Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

    "He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

    When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

    Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

    Prob about 9/4 in my book
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers

    .@JohnMannMP attacks 'pointyheads' at top of Lab for 'disastrous strategy'. 'People like me and voters I represent are not being heard'

    There was a 'strategy' ? - what was it, bacon butties and shrinking Clegg..?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    FPT

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Looks like Labour have already passed their target of 150 gains.

    Looks to me like at least 250 gains looks likely.

    But well short of what the independent experts suggest they should be doing;

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/29/the-2014-rallings-and-thrasher-local-elections-forecasts/#vanilla-comments


    Quite. Transparently poor spinning from Labour.
    Worth bringing OGH's tweet forward to this thread:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Prof Colin Rallings projection for May 22 locals

    CON -160
    LAB +500
    LD - 340
    Ukip ???

    9:53 AM - 29 Apr 2014
    And the ??? is why their "forecast" was a guess. As was Prof Fisher who gave Labour a projection of +130 but "doesn't have a figure for UKIP because his model doesn't cover it" according to The Guardian.

    Two psephologists. Two Labour forecasts at opposite ends of the spectrum. Generated by two models which do not account for the fact that we are now in a 4 party world. In other words useless outdated guesses.

    RP

    Save your energy and imagination for finding a replacement for Ed Miliband.

    There is no spin possible that can turn Labour's performance into a triumph.

    And it is not the psephologists who are to blame.

    Not a triumph, not a disaster. Steady as she goes. A hung parliament in 2015, Labour most seats very possible. UKIP emerging as the main opposition to Labour in many parts of the north, but not winning seats. But Ed is certainly a drag on the Labour vote.

    SO

    What today's results tell us is that Ed has lost the 2015 General Election.

    What is unknown is whether UKIP will be able to save him by giving him back what he has lost.

    Whatever the result, it is now out of EdM's hands and control.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    DavidL said:

    FPT
    It remains a fact that despite UKIP's successes in the locals in these seats Labour will have 10x more councillors, the tories more than 7 times and even the Lib Dems 2.5x. And they will not control a single council. Impressive but a long way to go.

    It's not just UKIP's wins though. Their second places identify targets for the next round of elections.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Gateshead final figures Lab 18 seats Lib Dems 4 seats no seats changed hands
    South Tyneside Lab 16 seats Con 1 seat Ind 1 seat Lab gain 1 from UKIP , Ind gain 1 from Lab
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    isam said:

    FPT

    Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

    "He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

    When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

    Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

    Prob about 9/4 in my book

    16/10/2013 Single To Win UKIP @ 16/1
    Constituency Betting
    Thurrock Pending £5.00

    Thanks for the tip ^_~
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    For all those silly sausages who think Lab can defeat Clegg in Sheffield Hallam, here's an indicator, this is the Dore and Totley ward.


    Labour Party: David Crosby
    Votes: 842

    Conservative Party: Alex Dale
    Votes: 1603

    Liberal Democrat: Martin Richard Smith
    Votes: 2452

    UK Independence Party (UKIP): Jason Christopher Sullivan
    Votes: 861

    Green Party: Rita Louise Wilcock
    Votes: 437
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    isam said:

    FPT

    Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

    "He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

    When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

    Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

    Prob about 9/4 in my book

    Great tip
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    AveryLP said:

    FPT

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Looks like Labour have already passed their target of 150 gains.

    Looks to me like at least 250 gains looks likely.

    But well short of what the independent experts suggest they should be doing;

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/29/the-2014-rallings-and-thrasher-local-elections-forecasts/#vanilla-comments


    Quite. Transparently poor spinning from Labour.
    Worth bringing OGH's tweet forward to this thread:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Prof Colin Rallings projection for May 22 locals

    CON -160
    LAB +500
    LD - 340
    Ukip ???

    9:53 AM - 29 Apr 2014
    And the ??? is why their "forecast" was a guess. As was Prof Fisher who gave Labour a projection of +130 but "doesn't have a figure for UKIP because his model doesn't cover it" according to The Guardian.

    Two psephologists. Two Labour forecasts at opposite ends of the spectrum. Generated by two models which do not account for the fact that we are now in a 4 party world. In other words useless outdated guesses.

    RP

    Save your energy and imagination for finding a replacement for Ed Miliband.

    There is no spin possible that can turn Labour's performance into a triumph.

    And it is not the psephologists who are to blame.

    Not a triumph, not a disaster. Steady as she goes. A hung parliament in 2015, Labour most seats very possible. UKIP emerging as the main opposition to Labour in many parts of the north, but not winning seats. But Ed is certainly a drag on the Labour vote.

    SO

    What today's results tell us is that Ed has lost the 2015 General Election.

    What is unknown is whether UKIP will be able to save him by giving him back what he has lost.

    Whatever the result, it is now out of EdM's hands and control.

    I think that was always the case.

    I remain very surprised that given his undoubted crapness, Labour's general and palpable weakness, and a recovering economy the Tories are not huge favourites to win an outright majority next year. Making the GE all about Ed is probably their only realistic hope now.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 35m
    Isn't it wonderful to hear the establishment parties now saying they must listen to the voters concerns #doh
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    54% in according to the BBC and the Conservatives are heading for 250 losses, LibDems 280, UKIP 185 gains, Labour 315, on the naive measure. A small variation on the forecast at the 45% stage.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Until Ukip actually control a council they haven't really had a breakthrough
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The votes for UKIP in Rotherham raise the possibility of UKIP taking seats from all three of the main Westminster parties at the general election.

    That would be quite something.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Thailand: former PM Yingluck Shinawatra is being held at a camp by the army:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27544972
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    PB's Dr Fox won't like the thread title :)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Grandiose said:

    54% in according to the BBC and the Conservatives are heading for 250 losses, LibDems 280, UKIP 185 gains, Labour 315, on the naive measure. A small variation on the forecast at the 45% stage.

    Given R&T grossly underestimated UKIP last time and this, over 300 gains for Labour wouldn't actually be that shabby. Though if they were a stronger opposition they'd be clearing 400 with ease, there's no denying it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited May 2014
    These Locals are but an electoral appetiser before Sunday's European Psephological Banquet!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Me, depends where they target. Farage was stating the purples would heavily target individual seats, so hopefully they won't go for the broad and shallow nonsense which they went for in the recent past.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Lib Dems retain control of Three Rivers DC 1 ward recounting with 3 seats but currently stands as LD having 21 seats Con 12 seats Lab 3 seats
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 35m
    Isn't it wonderful to hear the establishment parties now saying they must listen to the voters concerns #doh

    Not really. Sounds like pretty much word for word what they said after the 2009 elections.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    Have updated the results spreadsheet for most of the newly declared councils:
    http://goo.gl/4AJwpD
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    A fair bit of talk about how we are now entering an age of a 4 (main) parties. Perhaps an alternative view might that we are not, we are remaining with three (main) parties, just the third party is being replaced with a new one. It is a process that will undoubtedly take a while but in terms of popular support (and membership) the Lib Dems are, currently, being overhauled by the UKIP.

    The good Dr. Sox, medicus of this parish, said earlier that he was confident that the Lib Dems had a bright future as the sole sensible party of the centre and were just going through a rough patch. I dare say that nearly a hundred years ago Liberals were saying much the same thing with regard to the rise of the Labour Party, but this time they are starting from a much lower base.

    I don't know, I could be completely wrong (I often am), but I do think there is a change of mood going on and it will not necessarily be to the Lib Dems advantage.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Ed puts the Red into Redbridge?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Mr. Me, depends where they target. Farage was stating the purples would heavily target individual seats, so hopefully they won't go for the broad and shallow nonsense which they went for in the recent past.

    In a sense I think UKIP would be fortunate if they come close but not too close in some Labour seats. It might make Labour make the mistake again of thinking UKIP only threaten the Tories.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Dr. Spyn, are you suggesting he's Mili no mates?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    isam said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 35m
    Isn't it wonderful to hear the establishment parties now saying they must listen to the voters concerns #doh

    Not really. Sounds like pretty much word for word what they said after the 2009 elections.
    I think he was being sarcastic.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Nigel Farage should be mindful that a fox in the hen house tends to be hunted down and shot dead.

    Tally Ho !!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    RobD said:

    Have updated the results spreadsheet for most of the newly declared councils:
    http://goo.gl/4AJwpD

    That's almost as tabtacular as my betting spreadsheet.

    Which is due a reconciliation after the Euros.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,165

    Thailand: former PM Yingluck Shinawatra is being held at a camp by the army:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27544972

    It could be you next, Mr Blair.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Mr. Me, depends where they target. Farage was stating the purples would heavily target individual seats, so hopefully they won't go for the broad and shallow nonsense which they went for in the recent past.

    Targeting will be very important for UKIP, no doubt about it, but I'd suggest a pretty decent target list would start with the following three seats: Thurrock (Conservative), Eastleigh (Lib Dem) and Rotherham (Labour).

    Chuck in South Thanet (Conservative) as Farage's personal target and it still looks a lot more balanced then the political commentariat give credit for.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    I'm not Tony Blair! What a thing to say, Mr. Rentool.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    isam said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 35m
    Isn't it wonderful to hear the establishment parties now saying they must listen to the voters concerns #doh

    It would be even more wonderful if there was any person on this earth who could articulate how exactly the voters' concerns could be addressed, other than by the government doing what it is already doing or (in the case of the Tories) plans to do.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Lib Dems retain control of Three Rivers DC 1 ward recounting with 3 seats but currently stands as LD having 21 seats Con 12 seats Lab 3 seats

    Final ward splits 2 LD 1 Con final result LD 23 Con 13 Lab 3

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,165

    I'm not Tony Blair! What a thing to say, Mr. Rentool.

    Not you - you, you - him! If you know what I mean.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    I'm not Tony Blair! What a thing to say, Mr. Rentool.

    I see the similarities between you and a young Tony Blair.

    Very articulate with words, very popular, and making a huge blunder for which you won't agree was a mistake (Iraq and thinking Hannibal was any good, and better than Caesar)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Ed puts the Red into Redbridge?

    Nige puts the age into Dagenham?

    Helmer supplies the Barking.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Labour gain control of Crawley council
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014

    isam said:

    FPT

    Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

    "He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

    When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

    Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

    Prob about 9/4 in my book

    Great tip
    Thank you

    South Basildon & East Thurrock was 20/1, but I cant seem to find it now.. that is a decent bet too in double figures.

    Romford, Hx & Upminster and Dagenham & Rainham are worth keepeing an eye on if anyone prices them up too, especially if UKIP does better than expected in Havering.. I wouldnt mind betting they win the council


    EDIT: Maybe not!!

    http://democracy.havering.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=3&RPID=1001185700


  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Labour gain control of Crawley council

    Mark, any news from Watford Council ?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, sadly, I'm far poorer than Blair :(

    Not sure about the popular bit either. On the other hand, Demosthenes was popular, and that didn't work out very well for Athens.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Good, balanced overview. But I can't help noticing that the author himself doesn't look old enough to vote (lucky b*gger)
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    These Locals are but an electoral appetiser before Sunday's European Psephological Banquet!

    I think An Independence could surprise us all. It appeals to the dim Kipper, the drunk, the frivolous and the NOTA-and-don't-like-Farage-either. If it also gets some of the specifically bien-pensant Farage-haters, that's quite a lot of votes. And it might get that, because it is a much more vindictive way of spoiling Farage's day than boringly voting Lib/Lab/Con.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    isam said:

    isam said:

    FPT

    Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

    "He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

    When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

    Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

    Prob about 9/4 in my book

    Great tip
    Thank you

    South Basildon & East Thurrock was 20/1, but I cant seem to find it now.. that is a decent bet too in double figures.

    Romford, Hx & Upminster and Dagenham & Rainham are worth keepeing an eye on if anyone prices them up too, especially if UKIP does better than expected in Havering.. I wouldnt mind betting they win the council



    Is a pity no bookie has priced up Rotherham

    16/1 on UKIP to win Grimsby looks good.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Tyndall, there are worse things than looking older than you are (says the rapidly balding morris dancer).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Dr. X, I hope not. The name and the tagline both look very dubious to my eyes.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Ishmael_X said:

    These Locals are but an electoral appetiser before Sunday's European Psephological Banquet!

    I think An Independence could surprise us all. It appeals to the dim Kipper, the drunk, the frivolous and the NOTA-and-don't-like-Farage-either. If it also gets some of the specifically bien-pensant Farage-haters, that's quite a lot of votes. And it might get that, because it is a much more vindictive way of spoiling Farage's day than boringly voting Lib/Lab/Con.

    Given the history of some of its candidates you missed out 'the racist' from your list of people it might appeal to.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    JackW said:

    Labour gain control of Crawley council

    Mark, any news from Watford Council ?

    Still counting , they counted the mayoral votes first , Dorothy Thornhill re elected easily .
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BBC - LibDem HOLD Watford

    No further details.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Mr. Me, depends where they target. Farage was stating the purples would heavily target individual seats, so hopefully they won't go for the broad and shallow nonsense which they went for in the recent past.

    Targeting will be very important for UKIP, no doubt about it, but I'd suggest a pretty decent target list would start with the following three seats: Thurrock (Conservative), Eastleigh (Lib Dem) and Rotherham (Labour).

    Chuck in South Thanet (Conservative) as Farage's personal target and it still looks a lot more balanced then the political commentariat give credit for.
    They would do well to look at Castle Point if they can Hoover up Bob Spinks 2010 vote, Great Yarmouth, and from Labour some of the declining former safe seats like Morley and Outwood, Great Grimsby and the like. from the Lib Dems, hammer Cornwall.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Huntingdonshire remains Tory controlled, Ukip only took 2 seats, thought they would do better here
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Typically for this forum, lots of "Labour doing worse than expected"* stuff. Very little mention that the Tories are also doing worse than expected*


    *By Rallings.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Michael Howard won 13 councils and 174 seats on 2004 a year before GE. local elections are a tool for bashing the government not necessarily an indicator of the next GE result, infact does anyone know the last time an opposition was only 5% ahead 12 months before the GE and went on to win?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Woolie, I'd be greatly surprised if UKIP could win here. They could make a strong step forward, but a win is very unlikely, I think.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    FPT

    Sky News reporting about Farage in Thurrock

    "He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

    When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

    Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

    Prob about 9/4 in my book

    Great tip
    Thank you

    South Basildon & East Thurrock was 20/1, but I cant seem to find it now.. that is a decent bet too in double figures.

    Romford, Hx & Upminster and Dagenham & Rainham are worth keepeing an eye on if anyone prices them up too, especially if UKIP does better than expected in Havering.. I wouldnt mind betting they win the council



    Is a pity no bookie has priced up Rotherham

    16/1 on UKIP to win Grimsby looks good.
    Yes they have won 5 seats there I think?



  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Crawley: More evidence of Labour's "Southern Discomfort"?

    Labour seem to be having a decent day in the South. It's the north where they haven't done as well...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Labour gain control of Crawley council

    Mark, any news from Watford Council ?

    Still counting , they counted the mayoral votes first , Dorothy Thornhill re elected easily .
    Thanks Mark .... The Beeb just flashed LibDem HOLD Watford.

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited May 2014
    A brilliant job done by UKIP of splitting the Tory vote in my local ward, causing 3 Lib Dems and 0 Conservatives to be elected:

    http://moderngov.kingston.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=65&RPID=13339778

    The combined total of any of the Tory and Ukip candidates would have defeated all of the Lib Dems. I wonder if we will see similar results in the GE next year?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BobaFett said:

    Typically for this forum, lots of "Labour doing worse than expected"* stuff. Very little mention that the Tories are also doing worse than expected*


    *By Rallings.

    Oh Gawd, Whining Bob's back.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    A brilliant job done by UKIP of splitting the Tory vote in my local ward, allowing 3 Lib Dems to be elected:

    http://moderngov.kingston.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=65&RPID=13339778

    The combined total of any of the Tory and Ukip candidates would have defeated any of the Lib Dems. I wonder if we will see similar results in the GE next year?

    Looking at those vote totals I think it would be more accurate to say that in two of the three cases it was the Tories who split the UKIP vote.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Libs doing well in Romford haha!

    Party name Seats won % of votes
    Conservative Party 3 35%
    UKIP Local Residents 0 26%
    Pettits Res Assoc 0 21%
    Labour Party 0 17%
    Liberal Democrat 0 < 1%
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    A brilliant job done by UKIP of splitting the Tory vote in my local ward, allowing 3 Lib Dems to be elected:

    Commiserations must be very frustrating
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

    Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    These Locals are but an electoral appetiser before Sunday's European Psephological Banquet!

    I think An Independence could surprise us all. It appeals to the dim Kipper, the drunk, the frivolous and the NOTA-and-don't-like-Farage-either. If it also gets some of the specifically bien-pensant Farage-haters, that's quite a lot of votes. And it might get that, because it is a much more vindictive way of spoiling Farage's day than boringly voting Lib/Lab/Con.

    Given the history of some of its candidates you missed out 'the racist' from your list of people it might appeal to.
    I think the number of votes it has got for its actually policies, if anyone knows what they are, will be statistically insignificant.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

    Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

    Is Voldemort standing for the Tories?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    The thing is there were all those people saying that labour was struggling in the south thanks to Miliband going on about the 'north south divide'. Apparently Ed's 'lurch to the left' had alienated southern voters. Yet the bigger problems for Labour seem to be in the north. Front page of The Western Mail suggests Labour and Ukip are in for a photo finish to see who tops the poll in Wales for the Euros. I have my doubts, as Labour not winning would be remarkable; but who knows? Labour certainly have problems in their heartlands - outside London.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Mr. Woolie, I'd be greatly surprised if UKIP could win here. They could make a strong step forward, but a win is very unlikely, I think.

    Where are you Morris?

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

    Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

    Is Voldemort standing for the Tories?
    Neil Hamilton lost his council bid.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

    Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

    Is Voldemort standing for the Tories?
    I rather fear he is ....

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    isam said:

    Libs doing well in Romford haha!

    Now now, Mr Isam, no gloating - BTW, hope your cat is feeling a little better today since Barbara Roche has been removed from the airwaves. ; )
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2014
    Beeb kicking Vince out in Twickers! Lol
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Hmm this aint good

    Boris Watch ‏@BorisWatch 1m

    UKIP SURGE IN HAVERING AS TORIES TAKE 6 NIL LEAD IN SEATS
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    edited May 2014
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    These Locals are but an electoral appetiser before Sunday's European Psephological Banquet!

    I think An Independence could surprise us all. It appeals to the dim Kipper, the drunk, the frivolous and the NOTA-and-don't-like-Farage-either. If it also gets some of the specifically bien-pensant Farage-haters, that's quite a lot of votes. And it might get that, because it is a much more vindictive way of spoiling Farage's day than boringly voting Lib/Lab/Con.

    Given the history of some of its candidates you missed out 'the racist' from your list of people it might appeal to.
    I think the number of votes it has got for its actually policies, if anyone knows what they are, will be statistically insignificant.

    It is not so much the policies - about which most people will not have a clue - more the fact that a fair few of its candidates were kicked out of UKIP for racist comments or for trying to foster links between UKIP and the BNP.

    I find it amusing that those who say the don't want to vote UKIP because they are racist are in some cases choosing instead to vote for the racist element that got kicked out of UKIP. Shows the level of intelligence of those voters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Please put down any objects before reading this twitter exchange

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 6m

    Ed puts the Red into Redbridge? #vote2014

    great kahn ‏@genghisthekahn 1m

    @Sunil_P2 Goodness knows what he would do in Scunthorpe.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    feather stone gone, hahaha
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054

    isam said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 35m
    Isn't it wonderful to hear the establishment parties now saying they must listen to the voters concerns #doh

    It would be even more wonderful if there was any person on this earth who could articulate how exactly the voters' concerns could be addressed, other than by the government doing what it is already doing or (in the case of the Tories) plans to do.
    In London it is very easy to identify policies that people will respond to. Help Generation Rent. Build low cost housing and limit sales to people on the basic rate. That goes for a lot of urban areas nof just London. Generation rent should be natural Tory targets, decent income levels well educated etc... But they are stuck in a rental market paying off some arsehole's buy-to-let mortgage and the government have left this generation to rot in the rental market. HtB is completely useless for London so the current prescription falls on deaf ears. In areas where generation rent have a big presence the Tories have done poorly. They must govern in the interests of normal people and not for bloody landlords looking for easy returns by buying up London property.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Woolie, Morley & Outwood, seat of Balls.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Ishmael_X said:

    I think the number of votes it has got for its actually policies, if anyone knows what they are, will be statistically insignificant.

    I took the trouble to find out, out of curiosity. Their policies are identical to UKIP's, for all practical purposes. The only point of disagreement seems to be that they want the UK to leave the EU immediately, whereas (they claim) UKIP wants to use the Lisbon Treaty procedure which takes two years. It seems an odd point to go to the trouble of setting up a whole political party for, but there we go.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2014

    The thing is there were all those people saying that labour was struggling in the south thanks to Miliband going on about the 'north south divide'. Apparently Ed's 'lurch to the left' had alienated southern voters. Yet the bigger problems for Labour seem to be in the north. Front page of The Western Mail suggests Labour and Ukip are in for a photo finish to see who tops the poll in Wales for the Euros. I have my doubts, as Labour not winning would be remarkable; but who knows? Labour certainly have problems in their heartlands - outside London.

    Exactly what I've been saying for ages. The Westminster media's narrative that Labour have a problem with southerners and the middle class has always been laughably moronic and completely out of step with the reality. Their problem is the exact opposite: far from middle class people fretting about the deficit and thinking Labour are loony lefties, the real problem is working-class people thinking Labour are middle-class sellouts who would not do anything to help the poor and who suck up to the elite.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    BBC going through various constituencies where Lib Dems lost on the vote yesterday - Solihull, Cambridge, Twickenham, Horney & Wood Green
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Mr. Woolie, Morley & Outwood, seat of Balls.

    I would too, buts it's a good target. It was an overachieve for the 2010 Tories, there's a BNP presence to squeeze and Labour are declining there. A 25% and one more heave might take it in 2020
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Some of you are far too unadventurous in your UKIP bets. I have them to win Waveney at 50/1, Hastings & Rye at 100/1 and Blackpool North & Cleveleys at 250/1.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Interesting results in Southampton, Lab -2 and Con +2, No Ukip seats. Should make Southampton Itchen very interesting next year. Labour should not be losing seats at this time in the electoral cycle in Southampton. Again am very surprised UKIP didn't win any here.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2014
    In London it is very easy to identify policies that people will respond to

    Absolutely, Mr Max. Do you think it would help if the tories also...

    1. cut personal income taxes further

    2. Hiked the 'no stamp duty' threshold to, say, half a million?

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BBC -LAB LOSE NE Lincolnshire
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    currystar said:

    Interesting results in Southampton, Lab -2 and Con +2, No Ukip seats. Should make Southampton Itchen very interesting next year. Labour should not be losing seats at this time in the electoral cycle in Southampton. Again am very surprised UKIP didn't win any here.

    *whistles* someone tipped Soton for a 2015 Tory gain earlier :-D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

    Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Quincel said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.

    Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

    Is Voldemort standing for the Tories?
    Neil Hamilton lost his council bid.
    I have always considered him more of a Peter Pettigrew character (the untrustworthy rat for those of you who don't get the HP reference). Or perhaps for LOTR references more of a Dweomer Wormtongue character.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Woolie, the Conservatives are 1,000 votes only adrift of victory. They and Labour will probably put quite a bit into the seat. UKIP may well have lower hanging fruit to pick elsewhere.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    BobaFett said:

    Typically for this forum, lots of "Labour doing worse than expected"* stuff. Very little mention that the Tories are also doing worse than expected*


    *By Rallings.

    It would be informative and useful if you would directly compare the figures. Providing the balance you seek by adding some value to the site in that way might be better than carping that people aren't saying things that you approve of.

    Rallings projection (from the tweet that TSE reposted to the previous thread), compared to results from the BBC after 94 councils.

    Conservative -160 predicted [-156 actual]
    Labour +500 [+180]
    Lib Dems -340 [-168]
    UKIP ??? [+122]
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    antifrank said:

    Some of you are far too unadventurous in your UKIP bets. I have them to win Waveney at 50/1, Hastings & Rye at 100/1 and Blackpool North & Cleveleys at 250/1.

    Because I was bored, I just calculated what a £25 accumulator would get you (if bookies allowed accumulators on seats)

    £32,322,525
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Spin spin spin the vote
    Firmly for your team
    Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily
    Life is but a dream
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    Harrow looking very tight between Con and Lab. Cons have gained 1 seat, but otherwise no change.


    Any news of he who should not be named ?!?

    Is Voldemort standing for the Tories?
    I rather fear he is ....

    Not yet. Great Yarmouth is 6 UKIP, 1 Conservative, 2 Labour, with 4 to declare.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Tyndall, surely Grima? Are you thinking of the Dwemer from the Elder Scrolls?
This discussion has been closed.