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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The second Lord Ashcroft poll has Labour six ahead

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The second Lord Ashcroft poll has Labour six ahead

Ten general election voting intention surveys have been published between last Monday’s poll and today’s. Of those ten, two showed a Tory lead, one was a tie, and seven put Labour ahead. Baffling though this may look, it is not completely inexplicable.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2014
    first.

    I agree with TSE, although I'd put the Labour lead at closer to 2%. Nowhere near enough for EdM to be comfortable (I'm also convinced by DavidL's analysis that the "7% Tory lead required for a majority" that people cite needs some pretty heroic assumptions

    TSE, if you can be bothered, digging out some of the trends in the secondary questions would be nice... looked all positive on the economy for the Tories...
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    It is clearly a Cosmopolitan Conspiracy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    I think that those who have emphasised the effect of the Euros are on to something. I wonder how long it will take for things to settle down.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    A Liberal Democrat-Labour coalition has been my predicted scenario for a long time. They won't make it five years.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Why is Con much shorter odds for most votes than for most seats in the Euros?

    Surely it's very hard to assess the translation from votes to seats - it's completely different to the situation in a GE where the big issue is low turnout in safe Lab seats.

    Turnout may vary where there are also Locals but each Euro region should contain a fair mix of Con and Lab areas.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The C2 voters are interesting.

    Last week the Tories lead by 33% - 22% over Labour.

    This week Labour lead by 44% - 17%.

    Both times the base sample did not include enough C2 members, and so the responses of the C2 voters had to be weighted up.

    At least you can say that Ashcroft's two polls likely bracket the true underlying position, but achieving a more random sample is still a massive problem for the pollsters.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Off topic, I noted on my thread about the north east that I was not placing a bet on the Berwick-upon-Tweed constituency market yet. Following that, I got a message elsewhere from someone who I believe to be a fairly well-placed Lib Dem suggesting that the Conservatives are value at 8/11 there. So I'm now on that. But be warned, I can offer and do not have direct proof of the credentials of my informant, so if you follow me you're betting blind.

    This post is made in the interest of full disclosure and to avoid suggestions of after-timing at a later date.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @DavidL

    My own pet reasoning is based on the old adage 'never over estimate the intelligence (or hearing) of the public'. I think some people still respond as if the poll were for a Euro election, even when the pollster specifies that it is a Westminster GE poll. Hence high others and ergo wild variance.

    Just a hunch but I stand by my call all weekend to ignore GE polling until well after Thursday.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    I agree with Lord Ashcroft and TSE. Labour's vote share is far less solid than many of us had thought. The doubters were right. But I reckon we are still heading for a hung Parliament.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited May 2014
    Labour leads on 
    NHS 				+21
    Cost of living 			+13
    School standards 		+8
    Overall approach to EU 		+2


  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    Socrates said:

    A Liberal Democrat-Labour coalition has been my predicted scenario for a long time. They won't make it five years.

    That's certainly my preferred option, just as it was in 2010. My guess is that it probably would go the distance if it happened.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    What will be interesting in the euros is the relationship between polling score and actual turnout vote.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Charles said:


    TSE, if you can be bothered, digging out some of the trends in the secondary questions would be nice... looked all positive on the economy for the Tories...

    Anything you want in particular? I'm going to be throwing some pieces together for after the Euro elections so I can go digging.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The weighted base in this poll, excluding Don't Know/Refusers, is 495 people, so the statistical margin of error is quite high: around plus or minus 4%, I believe. So we can expect a fair bit of volatility in the weekly polls even if the underlying position is stable.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    SouthamObserver said:

    Socrates said:

    A Liberal Democrat-Labour coalition has been my predicted scenario for a long time. They won't make it five years.

    That's certainly my preferred option, just as it was in 2010. My guess is that it probably would go the distance if it happened.

    You could be forgiven for being under the impression that is was the preferred option of some 90% of the population.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MikeL said:

    Why is Con much shorter odds for most votes than for most seats in the Euros?

    I was wondering that too. With the possibility of a dead-heat I would have thought the outsiders would be better backed on the Most Seats market.

    One thing to consider would be where "dead" votes are likely to be racked up - very difficult to judge in the bigger constituencies but if e.g. UKIP don't get a Scottish MEP that's c 110,000 "dead" votes which contribute to Most Votes but not Most Seats. London/Wales (the two other specific regions polled) both look like being ties in seats & votes.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    My first attempt at the pre thingy on HTML. Does anyone know how to do it without the yellow boxes? I do not want to intrude on Avery's USP :)
    old_labour said:

    Labour leads on

    NHS 				+21
    Cost of living 			+13
    School standards 		+8
    Overall approach to EU 		+2


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    antifrank said:

    Off topic, I noted on my thread about the north east that I was not placing a bet on the Berwick-upon-Tweed constituency market yet. Following that, I got a message elsewhere from someone who I believe to be a fairly well-placed Lib Dem suggesting that the Conservatives are value at 8/11 there. So I'm now on that. But be warned, I can offer and do not have direct proof of the credentials of my informant, so if you follow me you're betting blind.

    This post is made in the interest of full disclosure and to avoid suggestions of after-timing at a later date.

    I've dutched the Lib Dems and the Conservatives in Berwick ^_~
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Socrates said:

    A Liberal Democrat-Labour coalition has been my predicted scenario for a long time. They won't make it five years.

    Just as in 1997, they would be gifted a pretty good economic legacy.

    Assuming they've got a majority of 25 (a big ask), I would reckon they'd make it the full five.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    antifrank said:

    Off topic, I noted on my thread about the north east that I was not placing a bet on the Berwick-upon-Tweed constituency market yet. Following that, I got a message elsewhere from someone who I believe to be a fairly well-placed Lib Dem suggesting that the Conservatives are value at 8/11 there. So I'm now on that. But be warned, I can offer and do not have direct proof of the credentials of my informant, so if you follow me you're betting blind.

    This post is made in the interest of full disclosure and to avoid suggestions of after-timing at a later date.

    That's good, it's my biggest constituency bet so far (at evens with a small saver on the LDs when there was an underround).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    As an aside, I would expect the mud thrown at UKIP in the last week or two to increase the number of shy 'Kippers. IOW, we might see poll ratings fall this week - but Thursday's performance to be as strong as any poll on here.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2014
    corporeal said:

    Charles said:


    TSE, if you can be bothered, digging out some of the trends in the secondary questions would be nice... looked all positive on the economy for the Tories...

    Anything you want in particular? I'm going to be throwing some pieces together for after the Euro elections so I can go digging.
    It's really whether (a) the economic secondaries have been tracking the overall state of the economy [and how you measure that - GDP or some other metric?] and (b) whether that feeds through to actual polling support & with what delay/leakage?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The weighted base in this poll, excluding Don't Know/Refusers, is 495 people, so the statistical margin of error is quite high: around plus or minus 4%, I believe. So we can expect a fair bit of volatility in the weekly polls even if the underlying position is stable.

    The 95% confidence interval for a sample size of 495 is +/- 4.4%, so you are right to expect a certain amount of volatility.

    However, I believe that the situation is even worse than this, because the large weightings applied to the base sample must surely reduce its effective size. If you look at C1 and C2 voters these make up 232, or 47%, of the weighted base. Yet this is based on the responses of just 184 people in the unweighted sample.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Also from Lord Ashcroft's comments

    " My first survey of individual battleground seats will be published on Saturday.

    Today’s poll also gives some indication on some of the underlying attitudes that will help determine people’s ultimate voting decision. The foundation of the Tory campaign over the next year will undoubtedly be the claim that Britain is heading in the right direction. At it stands voters are quite evenly divided on the question, with 44% agreeing that this is the case and 49% saying the country is going in the wrong direction. Swing voters are almost exactly evenly split, with 47% saying “right” and 48% “wrong”. Conservative voters are predictably the most optimistic, with 83% saying “right”; perhaps more surprisingly, more than a third of Labour voters agree. UKIP voters are by far the most pessimistic: 70% of them say the country is heading the wrong way. Exactly half of men say the country is going in the right direction, compared to only 38% of women.

    My question on which party has the best approach to various issues is also revealing. For much of this parliament my polling has found that while the Tories were thought best placed to tackle the deficit and the debt, Labour led on “getting the economy growing and creating jobs” (indeed Labour had the edge on this measure as recently as January). The Conservatives now lead by eight points on this question, by 27 points on “cutting the deficit and the debt” and by 17 points on “steering the economy through difficult times”. While Labour have a 13-point lead on “tackling the cost of living”, the Tories are six points ahead on “introducing practical policies that will work in the long run”. The Conservatives are also thought the best party when it comes to dealing with crime, welfare reform and immigration; Labour have the advantage on “improving standards in schools” (by eight points) and “improving the NHS” (by 21 points).

    Swing voters give the Tories a slightly bigger lead on the deficit and the debt. However, they put the party ahead on the economy and jobs by a narrower margin than voters as a whole, and give Labour a bigger lead on the NHS, schools and the cost of living.

    As for which party has the best approach when it comes to Britain’s relationship with the European Union – the question that is at least nominally being answered in this week’s elections – there is little to choose between Labour (27%), the Conservatives (25%) and UKIP (21%), with the Lib Dems languishing on 13%. Among swing voters there is even less to separate the top three (25% name the Tories, 25% Labour and 24% UKIP).

    Fifteen per cent of Tories, 12% of Labour voters and one in ten Lib Dems prefer UKIP’s attitude to the EU. We will have to assume that the 3% of UKIP voters who think the Lib Dems have the best approach to Europe know what they are doing."
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Populus Scottish split (188 respondents)

    Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    SNP 33% (+13)
    Lab 31% (-11)
    Con 17% (n/c)
    LD 9% (-10)
    UKIP 8% (+7)
    Grn 2% (+1)

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populuslimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Online_VI_18-05-2014_BPC.pdf
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    A Liberal Democrat-Labour coalition has been my predicted scenario for a long time. They won't make it five years.

    Just as in 1997, they would be gifted a pretty good economic legacy.
    How many minutes would it take Ed Balls to trash that?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    FPT
    anotherDave said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm going off UKIP a bit, especially after the survey showing their supporters to be quite left-wing and statist on a lot of issues.

    That was a bit of a shocker.
    Patrick said:

    People always say UKIP are 'right wing' - whatever that really means. I think in BBC talk it just means 'bad'. But UKIP have some fairly statist non-libertarian interventionist views which will accord with the half of the WWC they are peeling away from Ed. If Farage cmes up with some lefty sounding domestic policy sound bites as well as the EU/immigration stuff he will attract more of this group.

    If you look at the comments under DT articles, they are overwhelmingly dominated by nutters wanting to hang the EU LibLabCon traitors; and by nutters wanting the state to expropriate landlords, ban foreigners and reduce house prices by 70%.These are essentially the same people in each case; both frequently sign their rants off "Vote UKIP" and respond to challenge with abuse.

    They've made the comments section basically unreadable. Their real tragedy is their lack of self awareness - they are the sort of folk who will rant angrily at whomever they meet and walk away convinced they've made a convert.

    Peak blazer has in my view happened, simply because almost everyone must by now either know or have met a UKIPper.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES to win an MEP tightening at BetVictor: now 2/5 (was 4/9 this morning).
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    @OblitusSumMe - Yes, good point, the more the sample has to be poked around with, the bigger the effective potential error.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Tram spotter arrested and thrown into cells.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/476074/Mayor-mistaken-for-terrorist-on-tram-spotting-trip-to-Russia

    Luckily it wasn't a psychiatric ward for the incurably insane.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Coral ‏@Coral 20s

    Spot the difference...

    pic.twitter.com/tfVdTzhCkZ
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Socrates

    Would be a Europhile, cosmopolitan, very socially liberal government with enlightened views on race, drugs, sex and prison terms.

    Sounds like the ideal administration - bring it on.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Hills.

    UKIP tightening in NORTH EAST ENGLAND (Most Votes): started last week at 12/1, now in to 6/1. LAB lengthened from 1/50 to 1/33.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Yikes - and it's inaugural Russian grand prix year as well. I knew fancying Suzi Perry was a crime.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    A Liberal Democrat-Labour coalition has been my predicted scenario for a long time. They won't make it five years.

    Just as in 1997, they would be gifted a pretty good economic legacy.

    Assuming they've got a majority of 25 (a big ask), I would reckon they'd make it the full five.
    I'm not sure Miliband has either the leadership skills or the respect in his party he would need to hold things together.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Hills - Euros - London - Most Votes

    Labour 1/4
    Conservatives 7/2
    UKIP 8/1 (started at 12/1 last week)
    Greens 100/1
    Lib Dems 150/1
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    This poll has convinced me of two things:

    1. Labour's chances of winning the most votes in the Euro Elections are under-priced at odds of 11/4 with Stan James (5/2 elsewhere) and I've wagered accordingly.

    2. The Tories have little or no chance of finishing 1st or 2nd in the Euro Elections. Accordingly I've taken Ladbrokes' odds of 4/5 in their tricast bet as a stake saver for the above bet, that the result will be UKIP - Lab - Con.

    If Labour win I am 6 points in profit.
    If the result is UKIP - Lab - Con I break even.
    If the Tories win or come second it's a one way trip to Beachy Head!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    BobaFett said:

    @Socrates

    Would be a Europhile, cosmopolitan, very socially liberal government with enlightened views on race, drugs, sex and prison terms.

    Sounds like the ideal administration - bring it on.

    Very telling post.

    You don't mention the economy.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Hills - Euros - South East England - Most Votes

    UKIP 8/11
    Conservatives EVS
    Greens 150/1
    Labour 150/1
    Lib Dems 150/1
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    On Saturday night it will be time to start backing Villa to get relegated

    Sky Sports Football ‏@SkyFootball 1m

    Aston Villa boss Paul Lambert has vowed to stay and help build for the future after holding talks with Randy Lerner.

    http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11677/9317749/premier-league-aston-villa-boss-paul-lambert-keen-to-carry-on-in-role …
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    peter_from_putney said:

    This poll has convinced me of two things:

    1. Labour's chances of winning the most votes in the Euro Elections are under-priced at odds of 11/4 with Stan James (5/2 elsewhere) and I've wagered accordingly.

    2. The Tories have little or no chance of finishing 1st or 2nd in the Euro Elections. Accordingly I've taken Ladbrokes' odds of 4/5 in their tricast bet as a stake saver for the above bet, that the result will be UKIP - Lab - Con.

    If Labour win I am 6 points in profit.
    If the result is UKIP - Lab - Con I break even.
    If the Tories win or come second it's a one way trip to Beachy Head!

    If the Tories win, Mike and I will remind people we backed the Tories to win at 56/1 and 28/1 respectively.

    Just the once, honest.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    Next week's poll may be even more volatile.

    The fieldwork for that one will be conducted during the aftermath of the Local and European elections.

    Edit: And it will be a bank holiday weekend too
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BobaFett said:

    @Socrates

    Would be a Europhile, cosmopolitan, very socially liberal government with enlightened views on race, drugs, sex and prison terms.

    Sounds like the ideal administration - bring it on.

    Like I said, it won't last five years.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    LAB lengthening in BEDFORD (Con Maj = 1,353)

    Lab 4/9 (Lad, PP)
    Con 7/4 (Lad)
    LD 80/1 (PP)
    UKIP 100/1 (PP)
    Mike Buchanan 100/1 (Lad)
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hills.

    UKIP tightening in NORTH EAST ENGLAND (Most Votes): started last week at 12/1, now in to 6/1. LAB lengthened from 1/50 to 1/33.

    EH? - Don't you mean Labour shortened?

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Richard_Nabavi

    "You don't mention the economy"

    Given some of the figures, It is probably best not to. Walk away from it quietly, and hope to get as far away as possible before the ticking stops.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    peter_from_putney said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hills.

    UKIP tightening in NORTH EAST ENGLAND (Most Votes): started last week at 12/1, now in to 6/1. LAB lengthened from 1/50 to 1/33.

    EH? - Don't you mean Labour shortened?

    1/50 is 98% ip
    1/33 is 97% ip

    Basically, the chances of Labour topping the polls in NE England have collapsed from 98% to 97%.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    rcs1000 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hills.

    UKIP tightening in NORTH EAST ENGLAND (Most Votes): started last week at 12/1, now in to 6/1. LAB lengthened from 1/50 to 1/33.

    EH? - Don't you mean Labour shortened?

    1/50 is 98% ip
    1/33 is 97% ip

    Basically, the chances of Labour topping the polls in NE England have collapsed from 98% to 97%.
    Indeed, but the strange fact is that some numptie has backed UKIP down to 6/1. Why?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Smarmeron said:

    Richard_Nabavi

    "You don't mention the economy"

    Given some of the figures, It is probably best not to. .

    Indeed, the last thing Labour should do is mention the economy. To be fair, this is one lesson that the two Eds have learnt since they made such complete fools of themselves on the subject.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hills.

    UKIP tightening in NORTH EAST ENGLAND (Most Votes): started last week at 12/1, now in to 6/1. LAB lengthened from 1/50 to 1/33.

    EH? - Don't you mean Labour shortened?

    1/50 is 98% ip
    1/33 is 97% ip

    Basically, the chances of Labour topping the polls in NE England have collapsed from 98% to 97%.
    Indeed, but the strange fact is that some numptie has backed UKIP down to 6/1. Why?
    Maybe some Kipper has taken a wildly optimistic view based on a few subsamples of under 100 people.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Socrates said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Socrates

    Would be a Europhile, cosmopolitan, very socially liberal government with enlightened views on race, drugs, sex and prison terms.

    Sounds like the ideal administration - bring it on.

    Like I said, it won't last five years.
    Economics is all. If the economic winds are positive (most of which is beyond government control) then Labour will get the credit.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Socrates

    From the people I speak to in north London, it's a great manifesto for government.... :)
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Populus Scottish split (188 respondents)

    Westminster voting intention - Scotland
    (+/- change from UK GE 2010)

    SNP 33% (+13)
    Lab 31% (-11)
    Con 17% (n/c)
    LD 9% (-10)
    UKIP 8% (+7)
    Grn 2% (+1)

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.populuslimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Online_VI_18-05-2014_BPC.pdf

    Funnily enough, the Lord Ashcroft split is nearly identical. All MoE stuff:


    SNP 33% (+13)
    Lab 31% (-11)
    Con 18% (+1)
    LD 7% (-12)
    UKIP 5% (+4)
    Grn 4% (+3)

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ANP-140519-Full-tables1.pdf
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    @Richard_Nabavi

    Of course Richard.... On the other hand, the economy is looking very similar to the way it did before the last crash.
    While several people are quietly, if somewhat nervously pointing to a series of underlying problems, It should be noted that Carney has stated them openly and using unmistakeable terms.
    This is not usual practice for the head of the BOE when any recovery is "fragile", it is their job to gently warn without scaring the horses.
    You will of course point to the miraculous employment statistics as one of the major differences, but as I mentioned to SeanT, relabeling a problem does not make it dissapear.

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On Saturday night it will be time to start backing Villa to get relegated

    Sky Sports Football ‏@SkyFootball 1m

    Aston Villa boss Paul Lambert has vowed to stay and help build for the future after holding talks with Randy Lerner.

    http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11677/9317749/premier-league-aston-villa-boss-paul-lambert-keen-to-carry-on-in-role …

    "Premier League: Aston Villa boss Paul Lambert keen to carry on in role"

    Well, yes he would be on £3 million p.a. or thereabouts.
    But what happens on Saturday night (other than Derby County celebrating their promotion to the Promised Land)?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    I didn't think you'd be type of person to listen to the head of the BOE, Smarmeron.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good evening.
    All I want to say about the diverging polls has probably been written already: except this.
    Because of the changed field in UK politics, aka a major 4th party (UKIP), do the pollsters know what the hell they are doing?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin

    Everyone should be listened to.... Though listening to what people aren't saying is often more informative.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BobaFett said:

    @Socrates

    From the people I speak to in north London, it's a great manifesto for government.... :)

    Oh dear.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Well listening to what he is saying - he appears to be concerned about a housing bubble, like everyone, everywhere all the time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On Saturday night it will be time to start backing Villa to get relegated

    Sky Sports Football ‏@SkyFootball 1m

    Aston Villa boss Paul Lambert has vowed to stay and help build for the future after holding talks with Randy Lerner.

    http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11677/9317749/premier-league-aston-villa-boss-paul-lambert-keen-to-carry-on-in-role …

    "Premier League: Aston Villa boss Paul Lambert keen to carry on in role"

    Well, yes he would be on £3 million p.a. or thereabouts.
    But what happens on Saturday night (other than Derby County celebrating their promotion to the Promised Land)?
    I thought that's when the bookies open their relegation markets?

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Clearly both Labour and the Tories are now on 32-33% and the variations are all within margin of error. Let's see what happens this weekend. As the bulk of the council seats up on Thursday are in strong Labour areas, anything other than a robust Labour performance would indicate that Labour has indeed run out of steam.

    As for UKIP, sorry you may have fun on Thursday but next year you will be as irrelevant as the Greens to the final result. It is Labour v Tory with the LibDems fiddling on the fringes which will determine the government of the UK from 2015-2020.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On Saturday night it will be time to start backing Villa to get relegated

    Sky Sports Football ‏@SkyFootball 1m

    Aston Villa boss Paul Lambert has vowed to stay and help build for the future after holding talks with Randy Lerner.

    http://www1.skysports.com/football/news/11677/9317749/premier-league-aston-villa-boss-paul-lambert-keen-to-carry-on-in-role …

    "Premier League: Aston Villa boss Paul Lambert keen to carry on in role"

    Well, yes he would be on £3 million p.a. or thereabouts.
    But what happens on Saturday night (other than Derby County celebrating their promotion to the Promised Land)?
    I thought that's when the bookies open their relegation markets?

    Ah yes, after the play-offs have been concluded and Derby have been foolishly included as favourites to be relegated - rather like Crystal Palace and Hull last year.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin

    Listening to what he didn't say, he appears to have been worried about this and several other matters for a while.
    He is the captain of the BOE, but his hands have been tied and the helmsman is too busy listening to his Ipod playing "Money Money, Money" on repeat. to hear him.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Ashcroft - sleazy broken UKIP on the slide.

    just saying before Avery gets here :-)
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    He should drop the rate to 0.25 for a month just for a laugh.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good evening, everyone.

    Good poll for the socialists, bad for the blues. Still, one poll does not a summer make.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin

    That would be possible.. Going the other way at a pace that would make a real difference would crash the economy.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    I don't think it would crash the economy - it would just cheer up millions - and we all need cheered up.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Smarmeron said:

    @Richard_Nabavi

    Of course Richard.... On the other hand, the economy is looking very similar to the way it did before the last crash.
    While several people are quietly, if somewhat nervously pointing to a series of underlying problems, It should be noted that Carney has stated them openly and using unmistakeable terms.
    This is not usual practice for the head of the BOE when any recovery is "fragile", it is their job to gently warn without scaring the horses.
    You will of course point to the miraculous employment statistics as one of the major differences, but as I mentioned to SeanT, relabeling a problem does not make it dissapear.

    Carney is stating the obvious. The recovery is fragile as Osborne has repeatedly said. That is hardly a surprise, given the starting position and world conditions.

    As the housing market gets back towards normal levels of transactions, the measures taken by Osborne to get the market going again will have to be scaled back, preferably combined with relaxing constraints on supply.

    Luckily the economy is looking nothing like how it looked before the crash. There remains a fine balance between the competing needs to get the public finances back towards sanity, keep growth going, reduce unemployment, rebalance the economy, increase exports, and keep sterling from getting too strong or too weak. It's a tough balancing act, but we haven't, thank goodness, got Gordon Brown anywhere near the corridors of power, so that's one mega risk factor removed. As long as we keep his ex-henchmen away as well, we should do fine unless there's a big economic shock from outside.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin

    It might not crash it, but it would be too damned close. The problem is that the longer he holds off, the bigger the household debt overhang becomes..
    As one member of the CBI said on the "Shelter" blog, in response to a joint KPMG/Shelter survey, "We need to look at unprecedented solutions".
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Wouldn't my suggestion be unprecedented + help household debt?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Richard_Nabavi

    Peston is a well known fence sitter, but you get the gist of it

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/correspondents/robertpeston/
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    antifrank said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hills.

    UKIP tightening in NORTH EAST ENGLAND (Most Votes): started last week at 12/1, now in to 6/1. LAB lengthened from 1/50 to 1/33.

    EH? - Don't you mean Labour shortened?

    1/50 is 98% ip
    1/33 is 97% ip

    Basically, the chances of Labour topping the polls in NE England have collapsed from 98% to 97%.
    Indeed, but the strange fact is that some numptie has backed UKIP down to 6/1. Why?
    Maybe some Kipper has taken a wildly optimistic view based on a few subsamples of under 100 people.
    Touché. Though at least we're being informed about bookies' odds moving rather than offers disappearing and reappearing on betfair.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin

    In a "normal" situation yes.
    But while the majority are still living below pre crash levels in real terms, it carries a risk.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Q2. "66% LD may end up voting differently at the GE."

    I'm surprised the remaining LD vote is so soft. I had thought they were down to die hard LD supporters.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    JBriskin said:

    It is clearly a Cosmopolitan Conspiracy.

    It is handbags at dawn by a bunch of jessies, both are cheeks of the same arse.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    p.6, table 3
    current-Labour has more 2010 LDs than current-LD does.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    I'd like to thank Mr Bond for the phrase "Peak Blazer", which got a hearty chuckle.

    Hopefully the DT comments are also approaching Peak Froth, and a measure of sanity and readability will return. I'm not holding my breath.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    JBriskin said:

    Well listening to what he is saying - he appears to be concerned about a housing bubble, like everyone, everywhere all the time.

    They are only talking about London though, we will remain poor but will pay for their bubble.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    malcolmg said:

    JBriskin said:

    It is clearly a Cosmopolitan Conspiracy.

    It is handbags at dawn by a bunch of jessies, both are cheeks of the same arse.

    Ho ho Mr G , I think we've established that all the jessies are cybernats and they choose SamCam handbags.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @malcolmg

    The pips are squeaking for those who paid for the last "bubble"..They won't be able to pay for the next one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Alanbrooke said:

    malcolmg said:

    JBriskin said:

    It is clearly a Cosmopolitan Conspiracy.

    It is handbags at dawn by a bunch of jessies, both are cheeks of the same arse.

    Ho ho Mr G , I think we've established that all the jessies are cybernats and they choose SamCam handbags.
    Alan, LOL, Not in Ayrshire they don't , it is still a hanging offence here.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Newark by-election.Labour MP John Mann is reporting some unpleasant aggression from Roger Helmer towards an anti-sleaze one-armed man protesting about sleaze
    John Mann MP ‏@JohnMannMP 1h
    Ukip Rogers Helmer's response to questions about his expenses is to attack protestor in Retford. Now with police
    John Mann MP ‏@JohnMannMP 1h
    Ukip Roger Helmer picked wrong protestor to wrestle with: police cttee member with severed arm from industrial injury. Today in Retford
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alstewitn: .@itvnews at 6:30pm A new European election poll from @Andrew_ComRes - still good news for @UKIP but not as good as it was.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    A wild and woolly World Cup bet...

    Switzerland @ 160 (or stick an order in at 170) on Betfair. They're not seeded for nothing, having qualified impressively easily, if unspectacularly. They were the only side to beat Spain at the last WC.

    Group E features only Ecuador, France & Honduras. France are a horrible 27 on Betfair, having squeaked in via the playoffs; this bet is essentially taking them on. Ecuador regularly flatter to deceive, racking up most of their results at altitude in Quito. And Honduras are 1000/1 shots, having qualified from the weakest section, CONCACAF.

    If all goes well for Switzerland (!) they will come up against the runner-up from Argentina's group (Bosnia/Iran/Nigeria) in the 2nd round, so you've got a very fair chance of the quarter-finals. At which point, if not before, I'd recommend taking some profits.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    malcolmg said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    malcolmg said:

    JBriskin said:

    It is clearly a Cosmopolitan Conspiracy.

    It is handbags at dawn by a bunch of jessies, both are cheeks of the same arse.

    Ho ho Mr G , I think we've established that all the jessies are cybernats and they choose SamCam handbags.
    Alan, LOL, Not in Ayrshire they don't , it is still a hanging offence here.
    here in the Midlands I'd never go out without a manbag, I put it down to blogging too much with Richard Nabavi.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Websters Dictionary is adding 3 new words - selfie, tweep, and turducken.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    anotherDave said:

    Q2. "66% LD may end up voting differently at the GE."

    I'm surprised the remaining LD vote is so soft. I had thought they were down to die hard LD supporters.

    I don't think we have historical data on that kind of question, so hard to judge how it relates to actual voting practice.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited May 2014
    The Ukip story and the one armed protester.
    http://www.retfordtimes.co.uk/BREAKING-Labour-councillor-assaulted-UKIP/story-21111691-detail/story.html
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Alanbrooke said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    malcolmg said:

    JBriskin said:

    It is clearly a Cosmopolitan Conspiracy.

    It is handbags at dawn by a bunch of jessies, both are cheeks of the same arse.

    Ho ho Mr G , I think we've established that all the jessies are cybernats and they choose SamCam handbags.
    Alan, LOL, Not in Ayrshire they don't , it is still a hanging offence here.
    here in the Midlands I'd never go out without a manbag, I put it down to blogging too much with Richard Nabavi.
    Alan , horrendous news, its not proper
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited May 2014
    I was just thinking that it had all gone very quiet on the Roger Helmer front, and then I saw one of those tweets followed by this one from the man himself.
    Twitter
    Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP · 40m
    Sorry to spoil a good rumour, but I'm afraid I have not been arrested by the police.
    volcanopete said:

    Newark by-election.Labour MP John Mann is reporting some unpleasant aggression from Roger Helmer towards an anti-sleaze one-armed man protesting about sleaze
    John Mann MP ‏@JohnMannMP 1h
    Ukip Rogers Helmer's response to questions about his expenses is to attack protestor in Retford. Now with police
    John Mann MP ‏@JohnMannMP 1h
    Ukip Roger Helmer picked wrong protestor to wrestle with: police cttee member with severed arm from industrial injury. Today in Retford

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    old_labour said:

    The Ukip story and the one armed protester.
    http://www.retfordtimes.co.uk/BREAKING-Labour-councillor-assaulted-UKIP/story-21111691-detail/story.html

    I thought the left were all for direct action.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Any news about he Welsh poll?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    Any news about he Welsh poll?

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2014-05-19/poll-suggests-tight-european-election-battle/
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    ComRes poll at 6:30.

    Eesh, Trying to write threads here and getting new polls faster than I can keep up.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    UKIP are piling up those good news stories. All day we've had "UKIP leader not racist". Now we have "UKIP by-election candidate not arrested following altercation."

    What can we expect tomorrow?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    anotherDave said:

    Q2. "66% LD may end up voting differently at the GE."

    I'm surprised the remaining LD vote is so soft. I had thought they were down to die hard LD supporters.

    If there's no point voting LD they'll vote Green
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @corporeal

    You think it's bad with the polls?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27474099

    I thought last night that he had apologised
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    anotherDave said:

    Sean_F said:

    Any news about he Welsh poll?

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2014-05-19/poll-suggests-tight-european-election-battle/
    Thanks. That shows Labour +12%, UKIP +10%, Conservative down 6%, compared to 2009; very much in line with the Yougov's national picture.

This discussion has been closed.