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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After last month’s IndyRef scare the May ICM Scottish poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After last month’s IndyRef scare the May ICM Scottish poll sees YES down to an eight month low
Probably the most influential poll over the past month was the ICM Scottish phone survey for Scotland on Sunday which had the NO lead down to just 3%. This was the best position for YES in any media commissioned poll and has set the narrative in both Edinburgh and London.
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I suspect that this may be a thread to avoid though.
Last nights Euro polls do not make much sense. It seems very hard to guess likely turnout and also weight past voting. It seems that my guess is as good as anyones.
Has Jacks ARSE spoken on the subject?
*innocent face*
@Richard_Tyndall
Not sure what you are objecting to. Avery has already made it clear that the Tory party and its supporters believe that the facts don't matter, only the politics and it is acceptable to lie and smear ones opponents for political ends. I am simply taking him at his word.
Besides, as far as Cameron's inner circle and their sad coterie of sycophants and supporters are concerned it is true. Being a Eurosceptic makes you persona non grata and tantamount to being a member of the National Front. .
A bit of a misrepresentation there, Richard.
Facts do matter.
The vast majority of so-called "smears" against UKIP are based on fact, insofar as they are exposing published or recorded statements made by the party's candidates or supporters.
A few accusations will be inaccurate, either because the information presented is wrong or because it is open to misinterpretation, taken out of context or is polluted by questionable motive. When this occurs, the ambiguity and questionable nature of the source should be acknowledged and, if proved unreliable, the record should be corrected. Those making errors should apologise.
The "politics" of the matter is that UKIP's opponents have chosen to oppose the party through forensic scrutiny and criticism of its candidate and officer statements rather than through debate of its policies.
Partly this is to do with the perceived need to resist a threat to the establishment and sound government. But it is much more to do with UKIP's absence of serious policy, at least in breath; the party's chaotic and imprudent selection of candidates; and, the chosen tone and content of its messaging.
If a party exposes obvious weaknesses to its opponents, it should expect them to be exploited and suppress complaint when they are.
Being a Eurosceptic does not make you "persona non grata and tantamount to be a member of the National Front" to the Conservatives or even Cameroons. The forensic scrutiny of UKIP's values does not derive from opposition to the party's core policy position on Europe. It flows from the use by UKIP of 'Brexit' as a "reputational shield" to hide unacceptable social and political policies and attitudes.
A vote for UKIP is not simply a vote in support of the UK's exit from Europe. It carries with it all the baggage of bigotry associated with the party. This is the reason why it is essential that such bigotry is exposed by the media and confronted by the party.
I don't hate, despise or want to demean the people supporting UKIP.
It is the message not the person communicating it that should be confronted.
Among those certain to vote in the EU elections, the figures are UKIP 29%, Lab 26%, Con 21%, Green 10%, Lib Dem 8%.
UKIP self defines in a negative way, knowing better what it is against than what it is for. Even on the subject of Brexit it seems the party is unclear whether it should stay in EFTA (which would probably require freedom of movement). On immigration it is unclear whether it opposes all immigration or specifically EU immigration. It is very difficult to engage with such a party on the issues, hence the focus on the fruitcake elements of the party.
We see that support for "in" in brexit polls is on the rise as well as UKIP being on the rise. UKIPs worst enemy is itself, with its own extreme elements marginalising their own message.
I think the UKIP bubble will burst shortly, possibly as soon as next week, but the anger and alienation that has led to kipperism does need to be addressed by our mainstream parties.
Q. "Do you think that Nigel Farage is doing well or badly as leader of the UK Independence Party?"
A. +53/-28
2. UKIP's immigration policy is clear. They oppose uncontrolled immigration, a requirement of EU membership, and want the UK to adopt the same policy to immigrants from EU countries, to that used for non-EU countries. An australian points style system, that favours skilled immigrants over unskilled.
3. Polls vary.
4. How many times have you told us that UKIP's support has peaked? Do you never tire of being proved wrong?
It's simply the scale of the NO win that remains the issue. Will YES manage to edge 40% or will their appalling campaign slides further away as their day of doom looms.
The next McARSE Scottish referendum projection will be issued on Tuesday.
For the Euros, UKIP lead among men, working class voters, voters aged 40-59, and 60+.
For May Farage's ratings have slumped to +47/-39.
Thanks for the correction.
Even 'slumped' he seems to be leading the field. :-)
It is also noteworthy that the EFTA countries such as Norway and Switzerland have major and growing immigrant populations, as do Australia and Canada. Indeed the transformation of the ethnicity of Norway is in many ways more dramatic than our own. Is this what UKIP wants? Or does it oppose all immigration? In other words if UKIP were to controll immigration then what would that control look like? What would the numbers be?
I have always predicted that UKIP will do well in these Euro elections before deflating. I have only predicted one peak UKIP. Indeed my trifactor of UKIP/Con/Lab at 16-1 at Ladbrokes is my main bet of the week.
I have great faith in the British voting public and expect them to be much more sober and much less frothy in May next year.
More significant is that those now saying that the economy is being well-managed is tied (at 45%) with those believing it to be poorly. Can't recall when that last happened.
Are you planning a Euro-ARSE? or is it all too much for you to digest?
Of course we won't know until September 19 how well any of the pollsters have been able to measure this and have read plausible explanations for why either side may be under-reported - from "shy no" to "unreached yes" voters.
What is undeniable is thet the YESNP's "momentum with Yes" story has hit the buffers.
And as The SNP consider "dollarisation" - using the pound with no currency Union, like Panama does with the $, the BBC helpfully reminds us how Panamanian adventures ended last time Scotland tried it:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27405350
DC as PM
Well: 43 (+3) 95% of Cons VI
Badly: 50(-2) 3% of Cons VI
EdM as Leader of Labour
Well: 24 (-3) 55% of LAB VI
Badly: 66 (+7) 37% of LAB VI
NF as leader of UKIP
Well: 47(-6)
Badly:39(+11)
HMG managing the economy:
Well 45 (+3)
Badly 45 (-3)
I do not know what UKIP's policy is on:
Europe: 23
Immigration:20
NHS:63
Economy: 63
Education:68
Crime: 62
Defence: 64
You are voting UKIP in the EU elections - WHY?
Unhappy with UK's membership of the EU: 39
Unhappy with level of immigration: 22
Unhappy with main parties: 14
Want to put pressure on main parties: 14
UKIP will stand up for Uk in EU parliament: 9
I like Nigel Farage: 1
I'm under strict orders from "The Great She Elephant of Auchentennach" not to extend the activities of my ARSE to the European landscape.
As it is I'm hopeful that I'll just about meet the May deadline to produce the "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will determine the shape of the 2015 GE.
However outwith my ARSE franchise my own personal feel for these European elections is :
Ukip 27% .. Lab 24% .. Con 22% .. LibDem 10% .. Green 7% .. Others 10%
I just cannot make head nor tail of this new BetVictor market. They closed my account after losing a small fortune to me in 2011, but if it was still open I'd be putting every penny I had on LAB 9/4.
BetVictor - Most Votes In Euro Elections - Scottish Votes Only
UKIP 1/2
Lab 9/4
Con 6/1
LD 200/1
Mystery 1. Why is the SNP excluded?
Mystery 2. Even if you exclude the SNP, why is UKIP odds-on FAV? Surely LAB should be odds-on FAV?
I was at a meeting last week with some Welsh Docs. The stories of the Assembly's management of the NHS were rather hair raising.
I think that you are right that this will be a theme of the Tory campaign, and probably rightly so.
Should Nick Clegg resign or remain as LD leader?
LD VI only
Remain: 62
Resign: 25
If LD MEPs are reduced to 3 or less:
Remain:54
Resign:29
If LDs finish in 5th place at the EUs after Green
Remain:46
Resign: 37
If replaced who would be better/worse than NC
LD VI
Vince Cable:
Better: 28
Worse: 28
Danny Alexander:
Better;6
Worse:29
Tim Farron:
Better: 5
Worse: 13
"They put Tim Farron, the party president and the strongest left-wing candidate, in charge of the European election campaign. And Vince Cable, the minister most likely to be touted as Clegg’s replacement, will be in China as the results come in.
Clegg, meanwhile, has made it clear that he won’t go without a fight. His confidants have let it be known that if he were deposed, his loyal lieutenant Danny Alexander would be a candidate in the election that followed.
These moves are likely to prove effective. As Gordon Brown showed five years ago, if your party knows that there can be no smooth transition and that the leadership can’t be changed without a long and bloody struggle, it will stick with the incumbent."
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9207761/nick-cleggs-war/
"Ed Miliband just looks likes he knows he shouldn't be there and when his big brother finds out he's in real trouble. I despair..."
English votes may kill off independence
ENGLISH voters living in Scotland could swing the result of the independence referendum in favour of the United Kingdom, according to a new poll.......
The poll suggests slightly more Scots support than oppose independence (44% versus 42%, with 14% undecided) ahead of September’s vote.
But it indicates that English voters, who account for 10% of Scotland’s electorate, are 66% against independence, with 27% in favour — which could make the difference between success or failure for the Yes campaign.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/ScottishReferendum/article1412162.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_05_18
Won't that be perfect! The Separatists lose - and they get to blame the English!
The problem is that with higher population concentrations in the south and the north, they have forgotten about the bit in the middle which has poor road and no rail communications with north and south (and much better with England which is east-west). Also as the Welsh Assembly reduced the cash available for the NHS, they are trying to get people to go from the middle to the south for most specialised treatments including childbirth. It takes about 2 hours to drive from Aberystwyth to Cardiff (on a good day) and about the same to the North, People living near the Welsh border prefer to use hospitals in England.
Hhmmm .... "disorganised chaos" ??
Well, why not .... it rather reminds me of the Labour GE campaign of 1983.
Could I prevail upon someone with experience of yellow boxes, help me and Mark (a Canadian friend) find some suitable clothes for an old lady?
But some of the stories I heard were rather more alarming. Bridgend is in the news now, but only scratching the surface it seems:
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/princess-wales-hospital-health-minister-7111151
Representative democracy is a sick beast in most of the western world - political cleavage based on ethnicity is where we're heading, and it's not a good system for dealing with that (not that any of the others are, either).
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/?ico=columnists^editors_choice
I particularly liked this bit of his article:
"They [UKIP] are the Dad’s Army of British politics, doddery, farcical and very unclear about what they are actually for.
But they have Captain Mainwaring’s virtues too. They are absolutely certain about what they are against, in this case an aloof political establishment that despises the concerns of normal human beings.
They are also indomitable when under attack. And they need to be. I have taken a close interest in British politics since I was a schoolboy, and I have never seen a more disgraceful alliance between politicians and their media toadies than the one that has been secretly made to do down UKIP.
On one day last week, almost every unpopular newspaper carried a cartoon portraying Nigel Farage as ugly, stupid or embattled, or all three."
I don't know -- perhaps a Scottish former Prime Minister has weighed in? Though that can't be right as I know from pb Tories the man is held in universal contempt.
Avery finally realises that Cameron needs more people to vote for him.
It would have been sensible not to run around belittling voters and calling them names Mr P. We've been telling you for quite some time that you need a wider spectrum of voters and policies to match their aspirations. Too little, too late now.
I foresee a yellow box some time soon. ;-)
Mr Hitchens must be younger than I thought.The smearing of those who do not toe the editors/owners line is a time honoured tradition in this country.
Admittedly, it is usually directed at anyone to the left of Attila the Hun, and this is causing a little confusion to the "right"
They've excluded non-resident Scots.
They've done the English.
They've done the "anti-Scottish" Scots who don't agree with the SNP.
They are now doing the English living in Scotland.
I think we've passed Peak Scapegoat.
Aha. Polling error margins have become very important.
:-o
The Scottish people made their minds up on which way they are going to vote many months ago and there has been little movement in their VI in the last 18 months .
You mean like those on the "rich list" (and those slightly below)?
The poor get poorer while the rich get richer, "It's socialism Jim, but not as we know it"
"The Tory party has been feeding tame journalists with a series of desperate smears against Nigel Farage and Ukip"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2608144/SIMON-HEFFER-Its-time-grab-Putin-roubles.html
Human nature usually wins!
In general, do you think it is acceptable or unacceptable
to LEGALLY avoid paying tax?
It is acceptable to legally avoid tax: 28
It is unacceptable to legally avoid tax: 62
If you personally had an accountant who could show you
how you reduce the tax you had to pay through artificial
but legal means, what would you do so?
Yes I probably would:40
No I probably wouldn't: 32
"UKIP self defines in a negative way, knowing better what it is against than what it is for."
One might call this "Venn politics". I think it's a common occurrence in the human condition.
Gossiply, some team called "the gunners" came from behind to win yesterday, and this has put my lady in a very good mood, a thing to bask in.
UKIP in kilts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
This poll, which is better news for no, works out at 57.5% no, 42.5% yes excluding the don't knows. If anyone in Scotland does not know by now I somewhat suspect that they will not be troubling the scorers come the day so excluding them is probably realistic.
FWIW my perception is that there is still an ambivalence and drift inside the Labour party about how to vote on this. It is probably as well that the day of tory leads in the polls did not continue but how likely is it that there will not be a more sustained cross over before September? If and when they do that will be the crunch point for the campaign.
The need for a positive campaign from BT focussing on the multiple benefits Scotland gets from being a part of a larger Union rather than the buffoonary of Salmond remains as acute as ever.
I would check those yellow boxes very carefully in future as Avery may well have doctored them because he is not interested in the detail, only in the politics.
@iainmartin1: On the Scottish question, London is about a month behind on the ground reality. Recent focus on "No campaign in crisis" looks a bit daft.
From anecdotal evidence, I would agree.
The main problem at the moment (as is so often the case) is that "yes", and "no" if asked a question to which they have no definitive answer, make stuff up, instead of admitting the failing, and then pointing out how they intend to find the answer,
Bullcrap. The ultimate product of politicians everywhere.
Nothing like immediately being signed out to start the day...
I do wonder if we might end up with No after all.
Regarding unemployment, relabeling it only gives an illusion of it dissapearing.
The illusion only works for those blinded by the "bullcrap" I mentioned in a previous post.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27405350
Two points: I thought Burns was a unionist? Could be wrong but I'm sure Cameron quoted a pro-union piece from Burns once. Also, does it matter what a long dead poet thought?
"Some now argue that the story reinforces the case for independence, for it proved that when Scotland and England place themselves under one government in London - as they were under King William -..."
Isn't that a single monarchy (what's proposed by the SNP, incidentally) rather than a single government? After all, King William didn't stop the colonial effort being made.
It is also important to look at this from the perspective of the key demographic which is Scottish Labour. Never a ray of sunshine on a good day giving credit to Osborne is almost more than they can bear. I am sure their perception of the economy will be vastly more pessimistic than average polling.
Mr and Mrs C Weir
Largs
Ayrshire
should keep him going til well after September ;-)
"I thought Burns was a unionist"
Read much of Burns' work have you?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/arts/robertburns/works/the_twa_dogs/
Sean sees things through his London , pockets full of money viewpoint. Most Tories in Scotland seem to be the same, it is very different in the trenches.
Given the Times shows it as 53% to 47% it would seem to be far from over.
To save you the bother, he was socialist, you are confusing his ideas of "brotherhood" with "Unionism"
It won't.
Between 60:40 and 66:33 to no.
But it is undoubtedly the case that there is a significant strand of our population who are getting very little out of the recovery so far. We are not having a London style property boom in Scotland so people do not feel any better off. The casualisation of our workforce is an issue that Ed Miliband should be focussing on instead of all that producer/predator rubbish that no one understands.
Labour voters focus on these inequalities and ask if Scotland would do things differently. Which is why the ABCs are so determined to vote no of course. They fear the high tax Scotland that would almost certainly come to pass, at least until the economy collapsed.
Understandably Morris. He wrote in a funny language.
Stick to Shakespeare, Bunyon, and the Latin "classics"