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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Early voting begins for the May 22nd Euros and for some the ballot form will be very confusing
My postal ballot for the May 22nd Euros. How many will mistake party at top for Ukip? pic.twitter.com/kxi9TpwQyd
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UKIP: 51,900 views. youtu.be/aARKlOOypaQ
Green: 31,000 views. youtu.be/BDsV8YumePk
LD: 8,800 views. youtu.be/DvKc_5GqX2I
Con: 7,900 views. youtu.be/_xhXIGplfDo
Labour: 3,900 views. youtu.be/VzxXm7tFZBk
Whatever their intent in the end they are an anti-EU party and for me the point of thee elections is to get as many anti-EU votes as possible. The world will not end because UKIP get one seat less (if that actually happens) and whist I think it is a bit petty and vindictive by Natrass he is, at the end of the day, still a staunch anti-EU campaigner.
And yes I know that aspirations should be higher than just survival but this is West ham we are talking about... and the utterly awful Sam Allardyce. We have to take our victories where we can.
The numbers get closer when certainty to vote is added.
5-10
Lab: 29%
UKIP: 28%
8-10
Lab: 28%
UKIP: 28%
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/15jn5ythnj/YG-Archive-140501-GreenParty.pdf
Back from a fortnight's cruising in the Med - very pleasant it was too - and living mostly offline - also pleasant in its own way.
So, back to more threads about UKIP - Farage not standing in Newark a no-brainer really. It suits him to be outside the house p*ssing in and the last thing he needs is to be a lone sheep among the wolves (or a lone wolf among the other wolves).
Had a quick look at the Newham nominations - pleased to see a full slate of LDs in my Ward along with the predicted full slate of Labour and Conservative but also three Christian People's Alliance (CPA) candidates. CPA were strong in Canning Town but were wiped out in 2010 - Newham is the least agnostic area of the country according to the 2011 Census so there is a "faith" vote from which Alan Craig could profit. UKIP not standing in my Ward and only odd candidates elsewhere across the Borough.
On more important matters, WAR COMMAND looks a solid bet for the Guineas and I've backed him and TOORMORE against the front two.
I am still waiting for a market on the most interesting aspect of these elections: the battle for 4th place between the Lib Dems and the Greens.
In comparison, UKIP, No2EU, Labour and the BNP's all seem large, legible and attract the eye. I suppose that's a problem with having such a long one-word party name, and the obvious shortening might not be too good on a ballot paper... ;-)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8085850.stm
Furthermore it seems somewhat ironic to have what is in Westmister a protest spoiler party themselves complaining about a newer protest spoiler party potentially hurting them in Brussels. If anyone doesn't care remotely enough to get the name at all accurate or recognise the logo then they're surely simply protest and not confusion voters and recording their votes accurately.
Could this be the first indication of the UKIP surge which looked very strong a week or two ago starting to blow out a bit.
Also note polls take no account of ballot paper confusion. If "true" UKIP support is 27% they could easily lose say 2% through ballot paper confusion resulting in an actual score of 25%.
Starting to think Lab could well win.
Correct to oppose the favorites but didn't find the winner. Good analysis nevertheless.
May I humbly suggest you try to get your money back with Kentucky Hyden 6/1 and Adriana Des Mottes 16/1 in the 4.20 at Punchestown.
I don't think it would be right for the other parties to crow too much if UKIP score 25% and this other mob get 8%
But I wouldn't necessarily count No2EU in with UKIP and AIFE, as they might hoover up some of the far-left vote. After all, their strapline is "Yes to workers' rights" rather than anything to do with Europe.
Are No2EU the only hard-left party on the ballot?
http://www.ukipdaily.com/tory-activist-every-single-muslim-expelled/#.U2UIfvXDVWl
I think there's a difference between people saying they will vote labour in a euro election, and them actually turning up and putting a cross next to a labour name.
In a GE fair enough, but I've never thought labour have provided their core vote with a reason to turn out for this one.
Yet another example of Cameron's apt adage.
(*) The usual caveats: the account may have been 'hacked' etc. But it doesn't smell like it here.
I'm tempted by the 7-4 on Labour to back up my position.My rationale is not so much based on the issue of the ballot paper,although it is bound to have some effect,but that the elections in areas where Labour should poll well in the locals should boost Labour's support in the Euros.
The communications battle with Ukip-Patrick O'Flynn is likely to be a very busy man-is going to be crucial up to polling day.It seems to be a general assumption that there will be a Ukip surge in the last few weeks and days of the campaign.What this fails to recognise is the campaigning against Ukip,based on what we know about their policies and who they really stand for.This is also intensifying and will continue to do so.My bet is also based on the effectiveness of this campaign.
The price on Labour is also too high because of good expectation management by Labour who simply want gradual and steady improvement.
I retain the right to be wrong.
off topic we may be down but we'll be back.
On The Ball City.
It does,however,make the case for a Financial Transaction Tax.
http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/trading-in-milliseconds-when-correlations-break-down/
"At an almost empty Derby railway station, I passed a little posse of youths with purple badges and pound-sign stickers and … felt just momentarily menaced … I was starting to look at the Ukip phenomenon with new eyes."
The difference between UKIP and the National Socialist Workers Party is so small that when you strip out the geographic & temporal stuff you would struggle to slip a fag paper between their policy positions and methods.
That UKIP is still allowed to campaign is not a testament to the tolerance and open-spirit of the UK. It is a sign of weakness by the fool Cameron who seems intent on being the UK's Hindenburg.
UKIP should be banned and its leaders and chief supporters imprisoned in special camps.
I have just been reading the guys twitter feed.
Is it a spoof account as he seems as mad as the proverbial box of frogs.
Saying Home Rule was a mistake and wants to reoccupy the whole of Ireland etc
It's guys like you who are the real danger, wanting to ban anything that doesn't suit your palate. Ever think how Stasi like your attitude is. No of course not.
UKIP is anything but a fascist movement, if it was I wouldn't have anything to do with it. Mathew Parris is the one who is coming apart at the seams. Frightened that the people may vote for freedom from the EU and and the British elite.
"Damian Lyons Lowe @DamianSurvation Apr 24
For the EP elections, what *we* the pollsters wrestle with is that we show Labour on 30+% in an election where in'09 Lab scored just 15.9%
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Karsten Shaw @webkarst Apr 24
@DamianSurvation interesting observation. Maybe voting in EP elections less sticky than GE? Alternatively maybe polls wrong!
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Damian Lyons Lowe @DamianSurvation Apr 24
@webkarst e.g., Peter K is on record that UKIP w/b 1st but own methodology disagrees. Seems we all think LTV measure needs strengthening.
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3:36 PM - 24 Apr 2014 · Details
Karsten Shaw @webkarst Apr 24
@DamianSurvation traditionally low turnout elections seem harder to predict. As you say, could be LTV handling. Will be interesting...
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Damian Lyons Lowe @DamianSurvation Apr 24
@webkarst right, I'm not convinced we have a proper grip on LTV... not obvious what the solution it.. any view?
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Karsten Shaw @webkarst Apr 24
@DamianSurvation not convinced that internet panels help
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Damian Lyons Lowe @DamianSurvation Apr 24
@webkarst ok sure but do you know of any telephone poll ever that overstated ukip in an election?"
- tho neither have a slogan for Europe - Labour have variations on "Labour Party" while the Lib Dems have "for a fairer Britain", "for a Greener Britain" and "Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats" tho I guess we won't be seeing the latter anytime soon...
https://pefonline.electoralcommission.org.uk/Search/EntitySearch.aspx
Con 4/7 (PP, Lad)
Lab 11/4 (PP, Lad)
UKIP 9/2 (Bet365, Lad)
LD 250/1 (Bet365)
Note: Betfair have now opened their Newark market, but almost zilch activity to date and rubbish prices all round.
it should be possible to calculate it from the difference in Lab council turnout when it's on the same day as a GE compared to when it's not.
on top of that calculating the difference from before and after postal voting should show how important postal voting is for Lab
....The Scotland vote will be interesting too....will be curious to see what % the SNP manage ahead of September....
That's a minute tightening though, Stuart. It's probably due to people like myself following Mike's lead.
No really, there is smoke from something on fire up there. Not sure what it is. It doesn't look trouble related so far though.
So the mural of a smiling Gerry arrived right on cue as my mocking post from a couple of nights ago suggested.
And now we have the protest rallies. First one held today, right at the lovely mural of St Gerry.
It would be funny if it wasn't so predictable. All we need now is Uncle Tony to try to intervene.
Ukraine & Syria. I'll seek to post later on both, particularly Syria where there are genuine smoke signals. A long time ago when there was discussion of a no-fly zone on here I mentioned how there was a massive hole in the Syrian air defence system in the South of the country. That hole is still there.
As for Ukraine, Putin has, at least temporarily, blinked after the Ukrainians called his bluff. Its 50-50 if that pause on his part lasts.
http://www.stephenlees.org/115934636
LD 4/5 (Lad)
UKIP 3/1 (Hills)
Con 7/2 (Hills)
Lab 80/1 (Hills)
UKIP 4/7 (Betfair, Lad)
Lab 7/4 (Coral, Bet365)
Con 50/1 (Betfair)
LD 1000/1 (Betfair)
I was very happy to follow Mike's lead on this one. He's usually right, although personally I suspect Nick P's assessment was correct when he suggested Labour would do well but without winning.
re product standards:
Actually, if you look at North America, you will see that no-one makes products that comply just with Canadian or Mexican standards. Try and find an electronics product made that does not conform to US fire safety standards - they simply do not exist. The US has effectively exported its standards on other countries in its trade block.
The reason this happens is for two reasons. Firstly, the cost of conforming to standards (like CE or the like) is almost entirely in the certification and set-up. The marginal cost of producing a product that meets certification is rarely, if ever, higher. Secondly, large companies like to have global purchasing operations. Therefore, having a cheaper product that is only sold in one country of 60m people is extremely unlikely.
Now, it may be the case that - in agriculture - it's different. But in electronics, medicine, etc., there simply are no companies that sell just into a single country, because it is impossible to have the scale to compete if you are selling into just one country.
If we left the EU, pretty much everything we made would continue to made to EU standards. We could, in theory, have additional standards we required, which EU firms could choose to implement or not implement. However, it is worth remembering that - under NAFTA rules - you cannot use local product rules to protect your local market. (I'm sure the EU has similar rules regarding imports from EFTA countries.) So we would almost certainly continue to be required to sell things that conformed to EU standards alone if we were to be in an FTA with the EU.
So: what practical benefits - from a products standards basis - do we gain from leaving the EU?
Oddly enough, I'm less convinced about AUSTRALIA - take a look at the race and see the run of KINGSTON HILL - I thought that was a really good Derby prep run though I wonder if connections will take in the Dante.
Noted with thanks, Stodge.
So our season isn't a complete and utter failure then.
We could make the buggers conform to our standards if they want to sell into our market. I am sure I said that already, but perhaps you didn't see it.
IF correct, this would represent an 8% swing in the capital from Conservative to Labour since 2010. Labour would have their best local result since 1974, the Liberal Democrats their worst since 1990 and the Conservatives their worst ever.
On these numbers, I would suspect Barnet, Bexley, Croydon and Hillingdon could all go Labour - Havering would be interesting as would Redbridge where UKIP might surprise.
Merton would return to Labour but the LDs would probably hold on to Kingston and Sutton though the Conservatives would probably hold Richmond.
Labour had a good evening in London in 2010 as far as the local elections were concerned and I have always thought they would struggle to hold on to that but the Survation poll offers better still for Labour with the best night since the mid 1990s on offer.
From the other side, as I have said repeatedly, our own suppliers, in some areas, are required to comply with higher standards than those of their foreign competitors who can sell into our home market. That is just insane.
As an aside, I am a director of Sunbird Solar Ltd, which makes combined solar battery systems to sell into industrial markets. The company is British and based in London (although the key engineers are both French and most of the manufacturing takes place in China and Hong Kong). There is one version of the product that sells worldwide, and it ends up complying with Japanese, EU and US regulations - simply because the cost savings related to only making it for one country are negligable compared with the issues of having separate batches of inventory and changing assembly lines. Now, I know this is only one company (although I am involved in many), but I fail to see how what real, practical difference having our own product standards would have. (Note: if you are happy not being involved in FTAs with either NAFTA or the EU, that's fine - but you need to accept that that would almost certainly involve lower levels of trade and therefore a smaller economy.)
Just as a matter of interest, which specific EU standards regarding manufactured products would you seek to abolish?
Also, and also as an aside, I think in financial services at least, the Single Economic Area is a genuinely free market zone. My small asset management company can sell direct to consumers in France, Germany, etc. When we sell to people outside the SEA (in Japan for example), then we need a local reprentative who is the public face of our firm, and who takes 30% of our fees. I think you can accuse the EU of many things (undemocratic, corrupt, with political ideas above its station, etc. etc.), but I do not think you can accuse it of having failed to make the financial services across Europe a single market.
In regard to manufactured goods, which specific EU standards do you think we could abolish which would save us money? (I.e. there would be competing products made which don't meet those standards, and which we would not wish to have anyway - like electrical interference regulations.)
Very quiet on here. If anyone's interested, my thoughts on the Silver Arrows duel are up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/predicting-hamilton-rosberg-tussle.html
As I say a small example but I know that businesses are crying out for a reduction in EU red tape and I am sure they are not just saying it for fun.
Mind you you are only talking about a small part of the laws and regulations that affect us. Even were we within EFTA there are huge areas of EU law that we would no longer be subject to and that in itself makes it worthwhile doing. As I say, 10% of the GDP and falling is our current trade with the EU and I doubt even the tiniest fraction of that would be effected by our leaving.
Your fire extinguisher example is a good one. But it's also one that is clearly not going to save anyone any money. And is clearly tiny in the general scheme of things.
It seems to me that many people complain about EU inspired red tape. But most of the people doing the complaining aren't actually business people. You have a small business yourself, Richard. Which specific EU regulations negatively impact the operation of your business that you would abolish and which would make it more competitive and lower cost?
Sutton will stay LD unless there is a total breakdown of the LD vote in the northern wards where labour could win 5-8 seats from nothing...
If that happens then Sutton could go NOC....LDs have given up in some seats and are targeting their limited resources in critical areas..
It's also a change that should be fairly inexpensive to do as it is just a paint and transfer job? However the cylinders would still be made to whatever standard is applicable to those pressure vessels.
But unless we scrap the idea of having a colour code scheme (which would indeed be a retrograde step), then it would not reduce the red tape burden - it would just replace EU red tape with UK red tape.
But at least we'd be able to quickly tell what sort of fire extinguisher we've got in an emergency...
At the same time I got more blather from Balls. Was amused to read (forget whether it was from him or the in the local literature) about Labour's commitment to the Green Belt, given some land in the constituency keeps on being the subject of proposed development. Every time the firm involved (which wants some sort of business, not housing, build) very slightly amends the application and submits it again. Some local or other contacted Balls' office about it and got a response about the need for more housing (irrelevant in this instance).
I'm just reading a biography of Sir Daniel Gooch, the Victorian railway and cabling engineer. He was MP for Cricklade for twenty years, and allegedly never once took part in a debate.
At dissolution in 1885, when he left parliament, he said: "I have taken no part in any of the debates. It would be a great advantage to business if there were a greater number of people who followed my example."
I can't help but feel that he had a point ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Gooch
Labour aren't going to get a better lead over the Tories than they had in 1994 or 1998.
A completely off topic question if there are any PAYE experts here this evening.
I changed employer at the end of April.
My final pay month was the end of April and had YTD figures for the 2014/15 tax year.
My P45 which is dated May 1st has the totals for 2013/14 and I have had no P60 for 2013/14.
Is this correct?
I would have thought that the P45 should have only 1 months earnings on it.
As for Sutton, I would guess the LDs will abandon places like Belmont and Cheam but the question is how they are doing in places like Nonsuch, Carshalton and Worcester Park. You would know this better than I but you wouldn't be the first person to come on here and talk up Conservative prospects in Sutton and come out on the wrong side.
Angus (SNP majority = 3,282)
SNP 1/10
Con 10/1
Lab 16/1
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/1
Banff & Buchan (SNP majority = 4,027)
SNP 1/10
Con 8/1
Lab 20/1
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/1
Moray (SNP majority = 5,590)
SNP 1/10
Con 8/1
Lab 20/1
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/1
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (SNP majority = 1,885)
SNP 1/5
Lab 7/2
Con 50/1
LD 50/1
UKIP 100/1
Perth and North Perthshire (SNP majority = 4,379)
SNP 1/10
Con 8/1
Lab 16/1
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/1
thanks.
As we approach the Euros my antipathy towards them and to the EU grows and I am a natural europhile.
I think these guys will make headway in the months ahead
globalbritain.co.uk/
Directly affecting me - bearing in mind my business is service not manufacturing - would be the rules on competitive tendering which make it almost impossible for me to bid for local government contracts and many of the EU employment rules which mean it is simply not worth my while to employ extra workers.
"When the Whigs came into power ... They worked steadily towards curbing the government's coercive power over the individual; and with such effect, as historians testify, that by the middle of the eighteenth century Englishmen had simply forgotten that there was ever a time when the full "liberty of the subject" was not theirs to enjoy.
In this connexion the thing to be remarked is that the Whigs proceeded by the negative method of repealing existing laws, not by the positive method of making new ones.
They combed the Statute-book, and when they found a statute which bore against "the liberty of the subject" they simply repealed it and left the page blank. This purgation ran up into the thousands.
In 1873 the secretary of the Law Society estimated that out of the 18,110 Acts which had been passed since the reign of Henry III, four-fifths had been wholly or partially repealed. "
http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~ckank/FultonsLair/013/nock/liberalism.html
You should have been issued a P60 for 2013-2014 with your March salary slip - month 12. You should be issued with a P60 for 2014-2015 up to the date of leaving that employment.