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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited April 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new polls for the EP2014 elections have Ukip leads of 9% and 11%

Away from from Newark there’ve been two new Euro polls this morning both showing very similar figures. Check the interactive chart – LAB & CON shares both the same while ComRes makes it 38% for Ukip and TNS-BMRB makes it 36%

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    Words fail me
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    As if to underline the point I even had a purple and yellow leaflet through my door in Esher & Walton today....
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    The Conservatives are splitting the UKIP vote...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    It's the Farage-asgm...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Bbc politics page asked Stevenage voters to show if ed m has got what it takes to become PM, majority say no.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Does this then become an issue of mainstream parties being challenged by the upstart rather more than how much is lost tory votes....
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    I'm tempted to vote for Labour.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Ooops.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2616698/Mo-Farah-isnt-British-mosques-knocked-The-outspoken-views-Ukip-candidates.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,886
    As I've said before, a chance to poke both Westminster and Brussels in the eye - yet not get Ed Miliband as Prime Minister? It is just so damn tempting....

    Tories+ UKIP = 56%
    Labour 27%

    Now THAT is fascinating for next May....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Does this then become an issue of mainstream parties being challenged by the upstart rather more than how much is lost tory votes....

    If repeated on the day Labour will get about the same vote share as the Tories got in 2009. The Tories will get around what Labour got. If the move to UKIP is primarily among Tory voters that's the story. And great news for the SNP.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,886
    TheWatcher said:

    I'm tempted to vote for Labour.

    Sympathy vote?

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,857
    Paddypower now offering Ukip to get more than 23 euro seats at 5/6 . (originally set bar at over 24) .seems at odds with recent poll moves? Is UKIP still facing trouble with that 'an independence from Europe' candidate
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    They never learn do they.

    Let's have some POSITIVE arguments in favour of Europe. Make people feel inspired about the project, instead of ridiculing Joe Bloggs of St Leonards.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Out of interest, what was UKIP getting in the EU polls prior to 2009?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    dr_spyn said:

    Bbc politics page asked Stevenage voters to show if ed m has got what it takes to become PM, majority say no.

    Stevenage looks like a GE2015 Labour gain to me...
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    4 UKIP voters for every 1 LibDem?

    Wow.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,522
    edited April 2014
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    AndyJS said:

    Barbara Roche on Newsnight yesterday seemed to have a strange definition of the word "racist". As far as I know, Romanians aren't a different race to British people.

    It's no stranger than Nigel Farage's definition of race.

    Good God man! Why don't you just come out and say things?!

    Go on then, what is Nigel Farage's definition of race?

    As previously discussed, Farage claimed he was the victim of anti-English racism in Scotland. If Roche is wrong, so is he - as you said when we debated it before.

    Mr Farage is either fibbing or very deluded if that is his description of being told to go away by an English student and his Labour/leftie mates: it may be antiKipper bigotry, but it sure ain't racism. Which raises a question about him, to put it politely.

    However, that doesn't in itself affect the discussion you three are having.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SouthamObserver

    'If repeated on the day Labour will get about the same vote share as the Tories got in 2009. The Tories will get around what Labour got. If the move to UKIP is primarily among Tory voters that's the story.'

    In 2009 the Tories were the main opposition party and won,in 2014 Labour is the only opposition party and will have lost.That's the story.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I've received one leaflet so far. From the purples. Says it all really.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    If this was repeated in the GE it would give UKIP a majority of 182! (and leave the Tories with 12).

    Of course this won't happen and TBH it concerns me that so much support is being given to a political party with no Manifesto. Popularism is all well and good but the people might get what they asked for. (We might be able to observe a UKIP council - which you can be sure will be the most studied one ever in the press.)

    The real question is: how much of the 10% swing to UKIP in the Euros converts to UKIP on the ground for the GE, bearing in mind that when people change their mind it is difficult to get them to change back. I would still be surprised (unless the MSM repeat their stupid attacks next year) if UKIP manage more than a handful of seats, if any.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2014
    One slight caveat is that these are on-line polls, which is likely to boost UKIP because of the potential self-select bias.

    However, why quibble? You can around still get around 4/5 on Betfair on UKIP either getting most votes or most seats (or 4/5 from Coral on Most Votes) which has got to be a snip.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Farage has amazing momentum at the moment.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,832
    AndyJS said:

    I've received one leaflet so far. From the purples. Says it all really.

    Oddly I've only received one Euro leaflet - from the Lib Dems...!? (but then I am in a particularly un-kippery part of inner london)
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    edited April 2014
    2010 - Getting rid of Gordon Brown.

    2015 - Getting rid of Europe?

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    john_zims said:

    @SouthamObserver

    'If repeated on the day Labour will get about the same vote share as the Tories got in 2009. The Tories will get around what Labour got. If the move to UKIP is primarily among Tory voters that's the story.'

    In 2009 the Tories were the main opposition party and won,in 2014 Labour is the only opposition party and will have lost.That's the story.

    I fear you may be disappointed.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    The only European election leaflet so far has arrived. It's from UKIP.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited April 2014
    Ooops.

    Trouble is, its not oops.

    The 'knock down mosques.....he has a point'' comment is among the most liked on that thread.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,886
    weejonnie said:

    TBH it concerns me that so much support is being given to a political party with no Manifesto.

    What, Labour?

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    taffys said:

    Ooops.

    Trouble is, its not oops.

    The 'knock down mosques.....he has a point'' comment is among the most liked on that thread.


    Daily Heil innit.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    The only European election leaflet so far has arrived. It's from UKIP.

    Ditto - although I did receive a charming letter last month from Mr Cameron encouraging me to sign up for postal voting in the forth coming Euro election. No party bumf inside if memory recalls.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,857
    With the euros and that polling it certainly means the BNP will lose their 2 seats
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2014
    @SouthamObserver

    Labour trying to divert attention away from their poor performance.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    keep calm and carry on
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,089
    AndyJS said:

    I've received one leaflet so far. From the purples. Says it all really.

    I got a UKIP leaflet this morning for the Euros, but last week (perhaps the week before) I got a non-election specific newsletter from the blues.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    You can around still get around 4/5 on Betfair on UKIP either getting most votes .

    Not anymore....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Slackbladder said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    You can around still get around 4/5 on Betfair on UKIP either getting most votes .

    Not anymore....
    Corals 4/5 probably being smashed into at the moment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    state_go_away said:

    With the euros and that polling it certainly means the BNP will lose their 2 seats

    GOOD !
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MrJones said:

    keep calm and carry on

    Don't you just love the panic in all 3 main parties,loving it.

  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    FPT
    JosiasJessop said:

    I've read it thanks.

    But three police officer sacked for misconduct.

    Enough said.

    If you want to ignore the facts, that is, of course, your choice. If "enough" has been said to vindicate Mitchell, why is there very costly litigation pending? It is not in dispute that a police officer who leaked a true account of the incident would be liable to be dismissed for gross misconduct. Indeed, the CPS proceeded on the basis that the officers in question would have a defence to an indictment charging misconduct in a public office, because it could be argued that the leak was in the public interest. The disciplinary offences relate solely to the leaking of the account to the media. They have no bearing on whether Mr Mitchell or Mr Rowland's account is to be preferred. Your position is self-evidently irrational. Would you continue to consider Mitchell to have been vindicated if judgment is entered against him in both actions, a High Court Judge having ruled that he slandered Mr Rowland?

    It has been clear for a very long time that the crucial questions will be heard and determined in the defamation actions, not in the criminal or disciplinary proceedings.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,089
    Bob Hoskins has died.

    RIP.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,832
    BTW - Do we have any indication of a date for Newark yet?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    JosiasJessop said:

    Bob Hoskins has died.

    RIP.

    Great actor, RIP.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    SouthamObserver said:

    Out of interest, what was UKIP getting in the EU polls prior to 2009?

    Between 10% and 19%
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Only no.. Bob Hoskins is dead... :(
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Lennon said:

    BTW - Do we have any indication of a date for Newark yet?

    Not until Sir George Young moves the writ in the Commons.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,089
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    FPT

    JosiasJessop said:

    I've read it thanks.

    But three police officer sacked for misconduct.

    Enough said.

    If you want to ignore the facts, that is, of course, your choice. If "enough" has been said to vindicate Mitchell, why is there very costly litigation pending? It is not in dispute that a police officer who leaked a true account of the incident would be liable to be dismissed for gross misconduct. Indeed, the CPS proceeded on the basis that the officers in question would have a defence to an indictment charging misconduct in a public office, because it could be argued that the leak was in the public interest. The disciplinary offences relate solely to the leaking of the account to the media. They have no bearing on whether Mr Mitchell or Mr Rowland's account is to be preferred. Your position is self-evidently irrational. Would you continue to consider Mitchell to have been vindicated if judgment is entered against him in both actions, a High Court Judge having ruled that he slandered Mr Rowland?

    It has been clear for a very long time that the crucial questions will be heard and determined in the defamation actions, not in the criminal or disciplinary proceedings.
    Nope, I'm not being irrational. I can see the legal point you are making.

    I can also see beyond it. Mitchell has been greatly wronged. It would be a shame if (and this is certainly possible) the legal system adds to those wrongs.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    I live in a rock solid Conservative seat and so seldom receive anything from them at election time, the local Labour party is now non-existent (she moved away last year), but the Lib Dems usually send leaflets and even knock on the door but they seem to have given up this time. However, I have had a leaflet, a letter and an email from UKIP (not a member but I did write to them asking a question about 18 months ago) So UKIP do seem to have some sort of an organisation, centrally and locally, and are trying.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    taffys said:

    Ooops.

    Trouble is, its not oops.

    The 'knock down mosques.....he has a point'' comment is among the most liked on that thread.

    Which thread ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    JosiasJessop said:

    Bob Hoskins has died.

    RIP.

    I hadn't realised he was ill (Parkinson's, announced 18 months ago) - I still remember the impact "The Long Good Friday" made.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Only no.. Bob Hoskins is dead... :(

    Time to watch The Long Good Friday again...

    For old time's sake.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    CarlottaVance said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Bob Hoskins has died.

    RIP.

    I hadn't realised he was ill (Parkinson's, announced 18 months ago) - I still remember the impact "The Long Good Friday" made.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-27224995

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Tykejohnno said:

    MrJones said:

    keep calm and carry on

    Don't you just love the panic in all 3 main parties,loving it.

    Yeah, it's still more likely than not the baddies will find a way of derailing it eventually but for now it's great.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Last price matched: 1.68 UKIP Most votes. Massive 1.5/1.99 liquidity gap right now.

    Price SMASHED !
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    The established parties have a problem. Even when they unite to criticise/smear (delete as appropriate), Ukip gains votes. They thrive on publicity because they appear more normal. Even Godfrey Bloom types can be seen in any pub. So criticising them for not being politically aware is naive, if real politicians are seen as lying thieves.

    I don't think the majority are, but they exude an unedifying arrogance. I know what's best for you because I am a superior being. So when they mock the voters for being ignorant, those voters are obviously going to be grateful for the guidance of these superior creatures.

    tim had a lot of good points and was sometimes correct but he couldn't stop this same arrogance from coming over.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Which thread ?

    The thread below the Mail's report on the latest pronouncements from the kippers' finest.

    I was going to call them outrageous gaffes, but I'm not sure that applies any more.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    US GDP growth of 0.1%, oh dear. Things may become a little hairy for a while if the US economy doesn't pick up again.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    JosiasJessop said:

    Nope, I'm not being irrational. I can see the legal point you are making.

    I can also see beyond it. Mitchell has been greatly wronged. It would be a shame if (and this is certainly possible) the legal system adds to those wrongs.

    I am not making a legal point, but a factual one. There is a dispute of fact between Mr Mitchell on the one hand, and Mr Rowland on the other. There is precious little which allows an ordinary member of the public to make a decision about which of their accounts is true. The Crown Prosecution Service say that they have no evidence to suggest that Mr Rowland's account was false. A reasonable man will wait until a High Court Judge, who will have heard all the evidence, has made a decision. You seem to be content to make your own mind up, which is of course your prerogative. But I ask again, if it were held that Mr Mitchell had slandered Mr Rowland, would you still maintain that Mitchell had been grievously wronged?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    edited April 2014
    MaxPB said:

    US GDP growth of 0.1%, oh dear. Things may become a little hairy for a while if the US economy doesn't pick up again.

    IS that annualised as well? Which would mean it was effectively flat...

    Still they can blame the weather at least.... or can they?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,789
    edited April 2014
    Comres details here with some interesting additional points.

    http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1167/itv-news-index-european-election-poll.htm

    The poll does not explicitly prompt for UKIP, making the result all the more impressive. However, the lead shrinks from 11 to 4 if you take people who are 5-10 (out of 10) certain to vote, rather than people who are 10/10. People are fairly evenly divided on whether UKIP has sensible policies and they think them as dishonest as other parties; Lab and especially LibDem voters think they're racist, while (remaining Tories) on the whole don't. All parties' supporters think them a credible party. 95% of Tories and Labour plan to vote the same way next year; 79% of LibDems and 74% of UKIP (which is still a whopping 29% of all voters).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Town, that view does neglect the wider context, namely that leaks against Mitchell were made to the press and that a meeting with the police (federation?) was held, after which it was proven the police's comments afterwards were contrary to what occurred within the meeting (because Mitchell was canny enough to tape it).

    In short, it's all one-way traffic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Slackbladder said:

    MaxPB said:

    US GDP growth of 0.1%, oh dear. Things may become a little hairy for a while if the US economy doesn't pick up again.

    IS that annualised as well? Which would mean it was effectively flat...

    Still they can blame the weather at least.... or can they?
    Yes at an annualised rate, it would be 0.025% if stated in our terms. The markets expected slow growth because of poor weather and had pencilled in 1.2% annualised growth, but this is still a bad miss.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Nope, I'm not being irrational. I can see the legal point you are making.

    I can also see beyond it. Mitchell has been greatly wronged. It would be a shame if (and this is certainly possible) the legal system adds to those wrongs.

    I am not making a legal point, but a factual one. There is a dispute of fact between Mr Mitchell on the one hand, and Mr Rowland on the other. There is precious little which allows an ordinary member of the public to make a decision about which of their accounts is true. The Crown Prosecution Service say that they have no evidence to suggest that Mr Rowland's account was false. A reasonable man will wait until a High Court Judge, who will have heard all the evidence, has made a decision. You seem to be content to make your own mind up, which is of course your prerogative. But I ask again, if it were held that Mr Mitchell had slandered Mr Rowland, would you still maintain that Mitchell had been grievously wronged?
    You appear to be confusing the law with justice.

    They sometimes coincide; sometimes not.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Has Nige mange to rule himself out of all but Dulwich and Kentish seats?

    'Farage said if he stood it would be a massive distraction. He said: "I have no real connections with Newark. I would look like an opportunist...'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/30/nigel-farage-will-not-stand-newark-byelection-ukip

    Funny that he's rumoured to be sniffing around Portsmouth now. What's the connection there?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,089
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Nope, I'm not being irrational. I can see the legal point you are making.

    I can also see beyond it. Mitchell has been greatly wronged. It would be a shame if (and this is certainly possible) the legal system adds to those wrongs.

    I am not making a legal point, but a factual one. There is a dispute of fact between Mr Mitchell on the one hand, and Mr Rowland on the other. There is precious little which allows an ordinary member of the public to make a decision about which of their accounts is true. The Crown Prosecution Service say that they have no evidence to suggest that Mr Rowland's account was false. A reasonable man will wait until a High Court Judge, who will have heard all the evidence, has made a decision. You seem to be content to make your own mind up, which is of course your prerogative. But I ask again, if it were held that Mr Mitchell had slandered Mr Rowland, would you still maintain that Mitchell had been grievously wronged?
    That depends on the exact wording of Rowland's complaint, and where the burden of proof lies. Is the contentious claim of lying about what happened at the gate, or other things that have been said surrounding the case? I remember a press conference where, in my mind, Mitchell and his team went a bit too far in my opinion in their understandable anger.

    But the fact remains that the actions of the police caused massive pain to Mitchell and caused him to lose his position unnecessarily. Regardless of what was said at the gate, their behaviour was such that I have utmost sympathy for him, as I would anyone subjected to such awful behaviour. He was wronged, if not in the initial event (and I believe he was), but later.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    taffys said:

    Which thread ?

    The thread below the Mail's report on the latest pronouncements from the kippers' finest.

    I was going to call them outrageous gaffes, but I'm not sure that applies any more.

    Got it

    The Mainstream media really doesn't help itself

    Take this line for instance:

    " fresh comments have emerged " ... FRESH - the screengrabs are of bloody 2012 comments !

    In addition the Iain Martin/Dan Hodges articles in the Telegraph both exude the same particular band of smugness.

    Certain kippers are even trolling their own threads hoping to get red arrows !

    Zalman, uk, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago
    Typical ukip.

    His picture: MARIA MILLER !

    ANY sort of press coverage is like a nice warm sea to the UKIP hurricane.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited April 2014
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Town, that view does neglect the wider context, namely that leaks against Mitchell were made to the press and that a meeting with the police (federation?) was held, after which it was proven the police's comments afterwards were contrary to what occurred within the meeting (because Mitchell was canny enough to tape it).

    In short, it's all one-way traffic.

    It is not in dispute that police officers leaked accounts of the incident in Downing Street to the media, contrary to their professional obligations. Neither that, nor the behaviour of the Police Federation representatives in the West Midlands, have any bearing on whether Mr Mitchell or Mr Rowland is telling the truth.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Makes sense for Farage to not tie himself down and to increase the width behind him. The political class want him to stand somewhere so they have a stationary target.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited April 2014
    Next said:

    You appear to be confusing the law with justice.

    They sometimes coincide; sometimes not.

    No, I am arguing that a High Court Judge who has heard all the evidence and the submissions of the respective parties is a better judge of fact than the man on the street.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,555
    These polls are based on certainty to vote. So which party has a better GOTV operation for its supporters? In particular, if your canvass returns are based on local election or general election questions, does this mean you will be knocking up the right people for the Euros?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Got it

    It seems that UKIP's hairy-ar&ed amateurishness, its bumpkin naivety, is actually part of its appeal. It seems to confirm the view that UKIP are 'not like the other parties'

    The more this stuff gets published, the more popular they get. The papers really should lay off.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Just watched PMQs. Both Cameron and Bercow very poor.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Smithson, what did Bercow do wrong?
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Seismological polls for UKIP. So glad there are two of them cos I wouldn't have believed it. Feels great to be in the majority after so long. Last time I felt like this was when I voted Labour in 97. Roll on May 22.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Next said:

    You appear to be confusing the law with justice.

    They sometimes coincide; sometimes not.

    No, I am arguing that a High Court Judge who has heard all the evidence and the submissions of the respective parties is a better judge of fact than the man on the street.
    Fact, law, and justice are three different concepts.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    MaxPB said:

    US GDP growth of 0.1%, oh dear. Things may become a little hairy for a while if the US economy doesn't pick up again.

    All the feedback I was getting last week while I was there was that things were getting a lot better. Given the winter they have had the weather may well be a factor.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    The most hilarious part of the pie for http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/most-votes is that 6.68% of bets are on the Lib Dems at 500-1 for most votes.

    Arf !
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    US GDP growth of 0.1%, oh dear. Things may become a little hairy for a while if the US economy doesn't pick up again.

    All the feedback I was getting last week while I was there was that things were getting a lot better. Given the winter they have had the weather may well be a factor.

    I'm sure some posters will come to be pouring scorn on that, as they did with Osborne when it was winter over 2011/12
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    taffys said:

    Got it

    It seems that UKIP's hairy-ar&ed amateurishness, its bumpkin naivety, is actually part of its appeal. It seems to confirm the view that UKIP are 'not like the other parties'

    The more this stuff gets published, the more popular they get. The papers really should lay off.

    The media and political class could spend five minutes attacking Christian churches over covering up child abuse followed by five minutes saying people who talked about the grooming gangs should be locked up without batting an eyelid.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    TheWatcher said:

    Has Nige mange to rule himself out of all but Dulwich and Kentish seats?

    'Farage said if he stood it would be a massive distraction. He said: "I have no real connections with Newark. I would look like an opportunist...'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/30/nigel-farage-will-not-stand-newark-byelection-ukip

    Funny that he's rumoured to be sniffing around Portsmouth now. What's the connection there?

    The obvious conclusion was that the rumours are wrong and he's planning on running in Thanet South again, unless Roger Gale falls over in which case he can run in Thanet North.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,886
    Blueberry said:

    Feels great to be in the majority after so long.

    In the plurality, surely? If UKIP get 51% - that would indeed be a moving of the tectonic plates!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2014
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Next said:

    You appear to be confusing the law with justice.

    They sometimes coincide; sometimes not.

    No, I am arguing that a High Court Judge who has heard all the evidence and the submissions of the respective parties is a better judge of fact than the man on the street.
    M'Lud, you are defending English & Welsh law again and leaving poor old "British Justice" to fend for herself.

    What influence has the 2013 Defamation Act had on this case. I understand it removed "the presumption in favour of a jury trial" but does this mean that a judge rather than twelve good and true will decide on the matter of whether Andrew Mitchell uttered the word "pleb"?

    If my thinking is right then British Justice really has been fed to the dogs.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Carswell is at it again:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100269298/britain-is-an-aid-superpower-why-no-celebrating/

    Wretched man keeps saying things I agree with even though he is a Conservative MP. Just a back-bencher mind, there is no way on God's good Earth that the PR spiv, Cameron, would ever appoint him to the cabinet.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    Blueberry said:

    Seismological polls for UKIP. So glad there are two of them cos I wouldn't have believed it. Feels great to be in the majority after so long. Last time I felt like this was when I voted Labour in 97. Roll on May 22.

    Exactly how I feel

    I remember watching Blairs conference speech in a Dentists waiting room in 95 or 96 and being so excited that the first time I got to vote I'd be backing a winner....

    Hope this time it turns out better! They cant do worse
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,089
    AveryLP said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Next said:

    You appear to be confusing the law with justice.

    They sometimes coincide; sometimes not.

    No, I am arguing that a High Court Judge who has heard all the evidence and the submissions of the respective parties is a better judge of fact than the man on the street.
    M'Lud, you are defending English & Welsh law again and leaving poor old "British Justice" to fend for herself.

    What influence has the 2013 Defamation Act had on this case. I understand it removed "the presumption in favour of a jury trial" but does this mean that a judge rather than twelve good and true will decide on the matter of whether Andrew Mitchell uttered the word "pleb"?

    If my thinking is right then British Justice really has been fed to the dogs.
    I'd also like to see exactly what Rowland's complaint is, and what Mitchell is being sued for.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Slackbladder said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    US GDP growth of 0.1%, oh dear. Things may become a little hairy for a while if the US economy doesn't pick up again.

    All the feedback I was getting last week while I was there was that things were getting a lot better. Given the winter they have had the weather may well be a factor.

    I'm sure some posters will come to be pouring scorn on that, as they did with Osborne when it was winter over 2011/12

    There's winter and there's Polar Vortex. There can't have been much construction or any other outdoor work going on in the NE and mid-west for most of the first quarter of this year. Distribution will also have been badly hit. It was not a few days of snow and ice, it was month after month.

  • DevonExileDevonExile Posts: 12
    Apologies if missed it, PP now offering Newark prices:

    Tory 4/7
    UKIP 9/4
    Lab 3/1
    Lib Dem 200/1

    Others on request...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Llama, are you Patrick Mercer disguise?

    Mr. Isam, Mr. Blueberry, don't get carried away, given how things went last time.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    MarqueeMark said:

    Blueberry said:

    Feels great to be in the majority after so long.

    In the plurality, surely? If UKIP get 51% - that would indeed be a moving of the tectonic plates!
    At this rate...

    You are of course correct, though. People tend to use majority and plurality interchangeably.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,886
    isam said:


    Hope this time it turns out better! They cant do worse

    That one's a keeper!

    We'll trot this out when Ed Miliband joins the Euro.

    Without a vote.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited April 2014
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Smithson, what did Bercow do wrong?

    Speaker B told Cameron he was "finished" and made sure the way he said it had a double meaning. ;)

    It was a pretty odd session really. House seemed very subdued and hungover from Easter Holidays.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Smithson, what did Bercow do wrong?

    Bercow cut Cameron off before he'd finished an answer. When Dave said "I haven't finished" Bercow said "You have now". He was just bumptious throughout. I wonder how long he's go in the job?


  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Quincel said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Blueberry said:

    Feels great to be in the majority after so long.

    In the plurality, surely? If UKIP get 51% - that would indeed be a moving of the tectonic plates!
    At this rate...

    You are of course correct, though. People tend to use majority and plurality interchangeably.
    The plurality of people yes but not the majority.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Gin, Mr. Smithson, thanks for the explanation.

    That sounds bang out of order from the Speaker.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Smithson, what did Bercow do wrong?

    Bercow cut Cameron off before he'd finished an answer. When Dave said "I haven't finished" Bercow said "You have now". He was just bumptious throughout. I wonder how long he's go in the job?

    Perhaps College will stand in Buckingham again?

    Fritage for Speaker.

    Now there is a kipper campaign I could support.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    MikeSmithson said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Smithson, what did Bercow do wrong?

    Bercow cut Cameron off before he'd finished an answer. When Dave said "I haven't finished" Bercow said "You have now". He was just bumptious throughout. I wonder how long he's go in the job?


    When he took over from Speaker Martin in 2009 he said he wouldn't serve more than two parliaments, so I would guess he'll step down middle of 2015-2020 Parliament?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Smithson, what did Bercow do wrong?

    Bercow cut Cameron off before he'd finished an answer. When Dave said "I haven't finished" Bercow said "You have now". He was just bumptious throughout. I wonder how long he's go in the job?

    Perhaps College will stand in Buckingham again?

    Fritage for Speaker.

    Now there is a kipper campaign I could support.

    I always liked the idea of Richard Taylor for speaker when Martin stood down, or another independent MP if one appears by Bercow's departure. Martin Bell invited to run for a by-election so he can have the role is perhaps my dream. Or just a random respected judge.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Smithson, what did Bercow do wrong?

    Bercow cut Cameron off before he'd finished an answer. When Dave said "I haven't finished" Bercow said "You have now". He was just bumptious throughout. I wonder how long he's go in the job?


    Trouble at home maybe? Perhaps Mrs B's lost her wig somewhere.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Gin, Mr. Smithson, thanks for the explanation.

    That sounds bang out of order from the Speaker.

    Details and vid clip...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27224129
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited April 2014
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Gin, Mr. Smithson, thanks for the explanation.

    That sounds bang out of order from the Speaker.

    Well, Cameron wasn't innocent because when the Speaker cut him off (answering Ed's sixth question) he should have just let it go rather than calling out "I haven't finished". Though I suppose you could argue Speaker B was wrong for cutting off Cameron's answer in the first place.

    Whatever, there's clearly mutual loathing and contempt between the Prime Minister and Speaker of the House, which is unusual to say the least.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    MarqueeMark said:

    isam said:


    Hope this time it turns out better! They cant do worse

    That one's a keeper!

    We'll trot this out when Ed Miliband joins the Euro.

    Without a vote.

    You honestly think that UKIP success wont push Labour policy don't you?
This discussion has been closed.

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