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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Topping the polls 2-4 weeks out is not always a guarantee o

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  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    LABOUR RAG THE MIRROR: POLL BACK FIRES: Who will you be voting for at the next election? http://t.co/KrGVpIwkMW pic.twitter.com/c24YfhXiOl

    — Bristol Common Sense (@BristolComSense) April 27, 2014
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    @tykejohnno

    Opinion polls show the thing the British public want to renegotiate most from the EU is control of immigration. Richard Nabavi has already admitted that this will never happen within the EU. So if you want that, your best bet is not the Tories at all.

    Wrong. If you don't like what the Tories manage to negotiate then you can vote to leave. Support UKIP and you won't get the opportunity to decide.

    It's the classic conundrum: snipe from the sidelines but have no impact on the outcome, or compromise a little and get most of what you want
    The Tories will never win a majority at the next election, thus we are not going to get a referendum in the 2015-2020 period. The question is whether we will get one post-2020. We are much more likely to get that with a strong UKIP performance in 2015, rather than them becoming a busted flush that underperforms.
    Very unlikely they will get a majority, but not impossible. Never say never. Additionally, I don't believe that the Tories would enter into a coalition which did not allow for an EU referendum. I am sure the LibDems would see it as a way to extract a very high price, because Cameron would not personally survive a Coalition Agreement without a referendum commitment
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited April 2014
    Charles said:

    Very unlikely they will get a majority, but not impossible. Never say never. Additionally, I don't believe that the Tories would enter into a coalition which did not allow for an EU referendum. I am sure the LibDems would see it as a way to extract a very high price, because Cameron would not personally survive a Coalition Agreement without a referendum commitment

    Three questions:

    a. How did they enter into a coalition without a referendum on Lisbon?
    b. How did that referendum on AV work out for the LibDems?
    c. Just how stupid do you think Ukippers are?
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