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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP move into the lead for first time in YouGov Euros poll
"@MSmithsonPB Judging by S Times front page it looks a though its YouGov poll has UKIP in lead for Euros. pic.twitter.com/e8BAAmgzCO
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How would you vote in a EU membership referendum, stay 40%, Leave 37%, DK 18%, Wouldn't vote 5%
How would you vote if David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with the EU. Stay 50%, Leave 26%, DK 19%, Wouldn't vote 5%
Should Cameron seek to the end the right of Non-British EU citizens to live and work in the EU. Yes 45%, No 35%, Not sure 20%
Are the UKIP posters racist, Yes 25%, No 66%
Is Nigel Farage racist, Yes 27%, No 50%
Is Nigel Farage hypocritical to employ his German wife as his secretary, Yes 44%, No 40%
Lab 36, Con 31, UKIP 15, LD 9
Of course, the last two times UKIP have surged in the final fortnight to month, so UKIP 40%+ on that basis. jk; clearly that surge from media coverage and so on is largely priced in now they are so much more prominent all year round. Still, 4 more weeks of the EU being the topic of debate can't hurt them. Even ignoring this poll they're pretty well positioned on Labour's shoulder given their strength on the final sprint.
I've thought along that the most interesting/unpredictable aspect of these elections is the battle for 4th place between the Lib Dems and the Greens.
UKIP 25 (+12)
Lab 25 (+12)
Con 12 (-14)
LD 3 (-8)
Grn 2 (nc)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)
UKIP first or joint first in seats in every English region, bar London and the North East...
Tories joint first only in the SE.
UKIP could profit from further Tory troubles this week because the disgraced MP Patrick Mercer is set to quit and force a by-election over a cash for questions scandal.
The Commons standards committee will meet on Tuesday to ban him from parliament for six months. The MP for Newark, a winnable seat for UKIP, has told friends that if he is suspended for more than a month he will have to stand down.
“Cameron is seated on a stool with four legs,” said this ally of Adam Afriyie, the backbencher who was accused last year of plotting against the prime minister.
“He needs to keep the party above 30% in the polls. He needs to lead Ed Miliband on the question of who would make the best prime minister. He needs us to stay ahead on the economy and he needs to personally poll better than the party.”
Cameron is currently passing each of the four tests.
“The tide has turned in Osborne and Cameron’s direction,” says one MP present at the No Turning Back dinners.
Would a comet help? Newcastle beating Manchester at home? Anything?
Whouda thunk it?
It is clear that a sizable section of the UK electorate want what Farage is offering and nothing is to go to change their mind.
Also interesting how few people seem at all offended / taken in by the faux outrage over those posters. The Labour MP screaming racist all over the place might have to re-tool his message. It does seem simply screaming racist about Farage / UKIP isn't going to work.
Seems like another example of how out of touch the metro media elite are in relation to what people of the UK think is offensive / racist.
Thank you The Sunday TImes.
That is what Farage and Boris say and that seems to do them no harm.
Instead, Cameron just goes to ground / mumbles some nonsense when the predictable incoming comes from lefty special interest groups.
TRAMADOLADINGDONG!
Tahir Alam, chairman of governors at Park View school in the city, called for “girls [to] be covered except for their hands and faces”, advocated gender segregation in some school activities, and attacked a “multicultural approach” to collective worship.
He described how state schools must be changed to “take account of Muslim sensitivities and sensibilities with respect to sexual morality” with “girlfriend/boyfriend as well as homosexual relationships” treated as “not acceptable practices according to Islamic teachings”.
The disclosure comes as teachers at Park View said a boy and a girl in their GCSE year have been suspended after being spotted holding hands, only weeks before they were due to take their exams. “They have done this to quite a few students in Year 11,” said one member of staff. “That they should continue with it, even with all the scrutiny we are under, just beggars belief.”
In his 72-page document, published by the Muslim Council of Britain in 2007, Mr Alam and his co-author, Muhammad Abdul Bari, attacked many state schools for not being “receptive of legitimate and reasonable requests made by Muslim parents and pupils in relation to their faith-based aspirations and concerns.”
Mr Alam’s document says that aspects of the Nat-ional Curriculum, such as dance, should be ignored as “not consistent with the Islamic requirements for modesty”. It adds that “dance performances before a mixed-gender audience may be objectionable”.
Schools should “try to avoid scheduling swimming lessons during Ramadan”, the document says, to avoid Muslim pupils accidentally swallowing water and breaking their fast. “School balls, discos and fashion shows that might inadvertently exclude pupils from the Islamic faith background” should be avoided, it adds.
Khalid Mahmood, the Labour MP for Birmingham Perry Barr, said: “Mr Alam has been planning this for 15 years. He goes around making these schools religious by manipulating governors, and bringing in certain teachers. He was able to hone the [tactics] in Birmingham that he drafted in this report.”
Further evidence has emerged of radicalisation at Park View. Speaking to The Telegraph, a former member of staff said that a “member of staff” at the school last year put up posters in the corridors with the message: “If you do not pray, you are worse than a kafir” an insulting term for non-Muslims. “Those were the exact words”, the former staff member said. “Many staff, including some of the Muslim staff, complained and the posters were taken down.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/10790441/
As someone who worked with him to get him first elected and used to go drinking with Patrick I have to say I feel it is extremely unlikely there is anything Cameron could offer that would overcome Patrick's deep and abiding hate for the PM. He has never really made any secret of this even before his various public fallings out. I suspect that with his own political career over he would probably take some pleasure in causing a bit more grief for Cameron.
That said. Mercer had well over 50% of the vote at the last election and no matter how much I might like the idea I really can't see UKIP making that much impact in the town, not least because it has benefited from and accepted Eastern European settlement for decades longer than most of the rest of the country.
This is all just my personal opinion of course but having lived in Newark for almost 40 years I like to think I know a bit about the constituency.
Amusing piece by Theodore Dalrymple:
http://www.city-journal.org/html/7_2_oh_to_be.html
"The British have a curious attitude toward wealth: they desire it for themselves but wish to deny it to others. And so, not surprisingly, there are very few methods of acquiring wealth of which they approve. Among them is gambling."
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
This hasn't happened for years. Tonight's YouGov Euros poll represents a 2% swing TO the LDs from CON
Damian Thompson ✔ @holysmoke
@MSmithsonPB don't get your hopes up, Mike
You must admit the other 3 are like political robots compared to farage or salmond.
Oh, what a surprise.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Alexander Britton @adbritton 26m
Interesting... "MT @MSmithsonPB: S Times reporting that Newark MP Patrick Mercer is set to quit cash for questions scandal"
Oh, what a surprise.
*chortle*
con leader - farage
lab leader - salmond
lib dem - leader - farron
Douglas Carswell MP ✔ @DouglasCarswell
See Clegg's tactic of cornering the EU federalist vote worked. 9 percent. #betterOffOut
'Chortle'
http://philrodgers.wordpress.com/2014/03/30/modelling-the-cambridge-city-council-elections/
Yes, that is indeed surprising how badly that worked out for him and his ostrich faction.
I am not sure that UKIP have reached near their peak yet. The more people come out in their favour perhaps the more others will as they gain confidence that it is OK to do so. After all if Fred down the pub supports UKIP then they can't be loonies fruitcakes and closet racists because Fred is none of those things. I don't know, but what seems certain is that exposing UKIPs policy flaws/contradictions, attacking its leader as posh, a racist and/or hypocrite doesn't seem to be making a dent, people aren't listening to those attacks, I wonder why.
"Having grown up in politics, Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne seem incapable of thinking beyond it. Thus the tricksiness of their policies—the token cap on welfare spending, designed to embarrass Labour; the chimeric tax cuts, which leave few people better off. If this approach achieves short-term political hits, it does not tell sceptical voters they are led by high-minded people.
And this damaging fixation with tradecraft is self-perpetuating—because the Tory leaders, even more than their rivals, promote colleagues with a similar approach. Mr Osborne has built a network of such protégées—he calls them “the club”—including Matthew Hancock, Nicky Morgan and Sajid Javid, Ms Miller’s successor. Derided by jealous colleagues as lackeys, these rising stars are equally defined by their Osborne-ite view of politics as a game clever people play.
More obviously talented, yet less biddable, Tories—including Rory Stewart, Margot James and Nadhim Zahawi—languish outside the club. That is self-defeating. To enthuse voters, party leaders need to promote engaging representatives. The fact that Britain’s few charismatic politicians—Mr Johnson, Mr Farage and the Scottish nationalist leader Alex Salmond—are outside Parliament is symptomatic of this failure."
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21601015-problem-british-mps-not-they-are-too-rowdy-they-are-too-tame-hated
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2613597/DOMINIC-LAWSON-delivered-home-truths-independence-Glasgow-pub.html
Clickbaiters and their anecdotes. At least there wasn't an imaginary Swiss/American in this one.
In 2009 they polled 39.6% there compared to 27.7% nationally, so 19% would equate to about 31%.
The comment that Newark was Labour in 1997 on the last thread is true but misleading - boundary changes have made it very much more Tory. Any seat is losable when the electorate is in the mood, but my guess is that the Tories could hang on, with Labour and UKIP both within sight.
I was nearly selected for it in 1995 - I won every branch nomination bar one, but unlike Broxtowe there was a group of members who understandably took a dim view of someone applying from Switzerland and and a last-minute push got Fiona Jones selected instead. I was able to use it second place for credibility in the Broxtowe selection that came up next door a few weeks later. As it turned out, I'd been very lucky in more ways than one.
Con 81, Lab 308, LD 16, UKIP 215.
That'd be an entertaining parliament. :-)
Yup typical Glasgow drinking establishments. He sure took his life in his hands.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/political-parties-annual-accounts/2012#UKIP
twitter.com/thomasknox/status/459986083171024896
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/reid-accuses-snp-of-cruel-deceit-over-referendum-1-3390145
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/religion/10790495/Former-archbishop-of-Canterbury-We-are-a-post-Christian-nation.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2614038/Plebgate-PC-wants-200-000-MPs-lies-Sensational-testimony-No-10-officer-revealed-court-papers.html
I don't fancy the p##bs chance of passing one, and he was part of the "elite" Diplomatic Protection Group. What is he elite in, getting the doughnuts in?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10769926/Google-hangout-Why-is-Ukip-still-stealing-Conservative-voters.html
But if UKIP can go into the general election campaign looking like winners, they might be able to hold their EU Parliament supporters. Then maybe the voters can sack Mr Cameron instead.
The Election Data blogger said Witney voters are UKIP types.
http://election-data.blogspot.hu/2014/03/which-constituencies-best-suit-ukip-in.html
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2013/6/section/14/enacted
I think Wythenshawe was held under the previous rules.
http://legislation.data.gov.uk/uksi/2014/414/made/data.htm?wrap=true
UKIP 33% (+29)
Con 32% (-22)
Lab 28% (+6)
LD 7% (-13)
The Lab and LD changes here are in line with the opinion polls.
CBI Scotland chief to take early retirement
Yet...
SCOTLAND'S only Liberal Democrat MEP has been accused of throwing in the towel ahead of next month's European elections after enquiring about potential redundancy terms.
Former Scottish minister George Lyon, who in public is fighting for his re-election on May 22, attended a meeting for quitting MEPs last month, the Sunday Herald can reveal.
The event, at the European Parliament's Jozsef Antall building, was intended to offer financial advice to MEPs who are standing down this year.
Lyon asked a question about "transitional allowance", the golden goodbye given to departing MEPs to help cushion their exit.
The LibDems said Lyon's attendance was part of "normal contingency planning", and that he had attended on behalf of the LibDem group.
However, the Sunday Herald understands other LibDem MEPs also attended the meeting.
A Brussels source said Lyon had looked "sheepish" at the lunchtime event.