Andy Burnham’s manifesto destiny – politicalbetting.com
Andy Burnham’s manifesto destiny – politicalbetting.com
Britons tend to feel it's more important for an Andy Burnham government to pursue policies it believes are right than to stick to the policies in the Labour manifestoPursue policies it believes are right: 48%Stick to manifesto promises: 16%Something else: 14%yougov.com/en-gb/daily-…
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''Andy Burnham is set to launch a financial raid on swathes of middle–class homeowners by dragging them into the punitive 'mansion tax' regime, The Mail on Sunday can reveal.
Plans to lower the threshold for the extra levy to include homes worth £1.5million would mean more than 150,000 families – particularly in the South of England – being hit with four–figure tax hikes.
It could prove a double whammy for homeowners in the region, as Mr Burnham is also considering replacing council tax with a system based on land values likely to leave people living in the South paying up to three times as much as those in the North, where property is generally cheaper.Sources told this newspaper that Mr Burnham is considering lowering the threshold for Chancellor Rachel Reeves's so–called mansion tax – due to hit in April 2028 – from £2 million to £1.5 million.
In parts of London, a relatively modest four–bedroomed terraced house would fall above that threshold.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch attacked the plans as another example of Labour's 'politics of envy'.
It comes as the prime minister–in–waiting faces increasing pressure from backbenchers and unions to levy 'wealth taxes' on the middle classes to cover the spiralling cost of welfare and public services.'
https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15953425/Burnham-plots-homes-tax-raid-middle-clas.html'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/income/burnham-50pc-income-tax-rate-would-be-a-disaster/
The ability to knife the party leader (and chancellor) and to manoeuvre an anointed candidate into place is a wonder to behold. Speaks of a level of party discipline that Reform can only aspire to. And it is this lack of basic party organisation that will continue to haunt Reform - plus of course the venal nature of its key players.
They won't get it.
He said in his speech last week that his overarching political direction is "not up for negotiation", and then refused to take any questions from journalists.
We are now 2 weeks away from having a PM imposed on us who has no mandate, no clear policies, no clear cabinet, no challengers, and has allowed no questions, but will claim his vision is law and won't call an election. His response to anyone who criticises him is to be cold-shouldered or quietly threatened by 'friends of' or 'sources close to Andy Burnham'. Briefings I haven't seen since the Brown years.
That's not the behaviour of a democrat, nor of someone who's not going to come unstuck very quickly.
Given the fiscal constraints, unless the leader who implements real change is very persuasive, the likely response to that change is most likely to be, "not like that!"
So, broadly speaking there are four possible outcomes.
1. Burnham isn't really any different to Starmer. Fantastically unpopular
2. Burnham is different, but doesn't manage to convince the voters that short-ten pain is necessary for future payoff. Fantastically unpopular with added rage at broken promises.
3. Burnham is different, but is able to convince at least some people that his plan will work, given enough time. Grudging support.
4. Burnham finds a novel way to feck things up even worse than before. Unpopularity records broken. Memory of Truss superseded.
‘I think I owe Pippa Crerar an apology.
While I was furious about the later media spin surrounding Andy Burnham, I have just read the incredible investigative piece she co-authored with Jessica Elgot on 2 July.
They did not sit back. They exposed the Westminster backroom operation in full light.
They revealed that Labour bosses actually considered hiring Everton Football Stadium to announce Burnham as leader before the official nominations even opened.
They exposed the growing fury among rank-and-file Labour members who refuse to accept this undemocratic coronation. They showed that the planned online Q&A sessions are just a desperate move to placate voters who are angry about a total lack of a leadership contest.
This is the scrutiny we deserve. Pippa and Jessica held the line for the truth and exposed that behind the whimsical social media videos lies deep party disunity and a deeply flawed process.
I am glad to stand corrected when real journalism proves itself alive and well.
The Guardian article⬇️
#UKPolitics #AndyBurnham #PippaCrerar #Guardian #MediaScrutiny #FactCheck #Labour’
https://x.com/cherryopenmind/status/2073179319719899515?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
So, these are political taxes for the Labour base, and not serious economic revenue-raisers. And even then it's not one-way: these sorts of moves expose at least 50-60 seats to Conservative re-capture in the South in the 2029GE.
We are in the summer lull, so I wouldn't expect too much politics this summer. Inevitably there will be some court politics around cabinet positions, but I think Burnham is by nature not a factionalist and will want all strands of the party represented in cabinet.
To what extent do these sort of base-pleasing politicies work (in terms of pleasing the base)? Or is there main benefit in provoking the opposition, and directing attention away from more consequential policies?
I do wonder if we're heading for a Stravinsky/Abstract Art premiership. Make it sound changey to hide the lack of actual change. The song won't be that different (the constraints mean that it can't be) but a different singer with a better rapport with the audience. Who, fundamentally, isn't us.
Texas -like Florida- is high humidity.
It would presumably work well in Arizona and Nevada.
Better communication can only help Britain break out of its current morass if it's used in service of bolder change, that's willing to do something unpopular in the short-term.
If Burnham is aiming for better communication on top of the status quo to win re-election in 2029, then I think he's very likely going to end up bemoaning his misfortunes in the same way Starmer currently is.
If there were any lingering doubts that you (Musk) and your friends were against the very principles of democracy, you just removed them.
https://x.com/ylecun/status/2073427970656452822
If I were to guess, I reckon his chances are about the same as England v. Mexico. I reckon there's around a 30% chance that England will overcome Mexico with ease. I reckon there's about the same 30% chance that Burnham will sweep all before him and be a popular PM who will comfortably win the next GE.
Burnham needs something more radical imo. I'd exempt principal residences (one per couple) and pension pots below a new LTA (say £1.5m), then tax all other wealth above a threshold of £0.5m at 1% pa. Apply the existing Deprivation of Capital and 'couples' rules - the rules that are happily applied to benefit claimants.
Extend NI to all income, maybe by reducing employees NI rate and increasing the basic ICT rate.
Make Ed Miliband chancellor, ex-chief Treasury adviser tells Andy Burnham
Nicholas Stern joins growing number backing Miliband, saying he has vision and experience to revive economy
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jul/05/make-ed-miliband-chancellor-ex-chief-treasury-adviser-nicholas-stern-tells-andy-burnham
The appointment is looking increasingly likely.
The headline treatment, and attempt at a 'hero' photo of Ed are mildly risible.
ICC exploring fixed windows for each format
Continental championships among ideas up for debate
The International Cricket Council is exploring a radical overhaul of the global calendar with discussions surrounding multilateral series, the creation of continental championships, a World Club Championship for T20 franchises, fixed windows for each format and possible changes to the length of one-day internationals.
Talks between the 12 full members will take place at the ICC’s annual general meeting in Edinburgh on Wednesday as part of a strategic review being managed by the consulting firm McKinsey.
Sources say that while the process is at an early stage, the ICC is encouraging discussion of radical ideas with the aim of securing the long-term future of all three formats of international cricket – Test matches, T20s and ODIs – in the face of the threat posed by franchise leagues.
The ICC’s future tours programme is fixed until next year, and beyond that events such as World Cups, the World Test Championship (WC) and series involving England, India and Australia are scheduled until 2031, so any changes would have to wait until after then.
Sources say that after spending recent years focusing on the format of the WTC, the ICC now favours a more holistic, long-term approach, to build a framework to allow three international formats to thrive.
In addition to fixed windows, with ODIs being played only in the 18 months leading up to a World Cup, for example, more radical ideas are being discussed including reducing the length of ODIs. The ICC is also exploring adding more events to its portfolio, with bilateral series not involving two of England, India and Australia having little commercial value.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/jul/05/world-club-t20-and-shorter-odis-among-icc-options-in-radical-overhaul-of-cricket-calendar
The question is what would you do to cover the Defence £4.7bn (assuming you agree it's needed)?
Yet we cannot go on as we are - Council Tax was a botched solution to the Poll Tax which did much to bring down one of your previous Prime Ministers.
With no revaluations since 1991, it is riven with anomalies and more than anything else doesn't raise the sums local councils need to cover social care and other areas.
First, let's call it what it is - it's a High Value Council Tax Surcharge (not what you have lazily called a "Mansion Tax")
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-value-council-tax-surcharge/high-value-council-tax-surcharge
It's worth stating for the vast majority of homeowners in this country the HVCTS won't mean anything - obviously, as with any tax, those who stand to pay more shout the loudest.
The key point is this:
Under the current system, the average band D charge for a typical family home across England is £2,280. That is £250 more per year than a £10 million property in Mayfair, based on the band H charge in the City of Westminster, currently pays. This surcharge will change that, implementing a significant reform to improve fairness within England’s property tax system.
Taxing the "value" of properties isn't of course a million miles away from the Council Tax and had successive Governments implemented the necessary revaluations and added additional bands, we wouldn't need such a drastic response now.
A new one is needed.
We all know that.
Can Burnham beat the blob is the question.
At least he should be able to hit the ground running.
So team A bats first for 25 overs, then team B bats for 25 overs etc.
That way you can get to see the likes of Buttler/Bethell etc bat twice in one day.
A few comments here last week suggested that we had not heard all of the Farage corruption story, and that indeed does seem to be the case. I am not of the view that ReformUK (proprietor N P Farage) can survive his departure. So I think the implosion of the Nationalist Right may well be incoming. Mrs Badenoch is probably fairly gleeful, Sir Edward and the Labour Borg collective probably much less so.
Its going to be a fun week... *Popcorn*
So are we to believe in the 3 core elements of Manifesto Destiny:
Andy's Exceptionalism: The belief in the unique moral virtue and superiority of the States of the Democratic Institutions.
Mayoral Mission: The duty to spread Manchesterism government and the "Mancunian way of life" to other peoples.
Divine Ordainment: The absolute faith that this expansion is the inevitable will of Providence.
What say you, PB, and .. er .. The Local Marshall?
Oh, wait...
Politics is the art of the possible.
If the Burnsiah replaces that with imposing policies that are a bit more Labour friendly, he may do better. But if the policies fail to inspire the electorate, he will run out of road with the party rapidly, in that case.
One thing I would caution is that the Tories and Mrs Badenoch shouldn't be too gleeful is that some of the donors such as Mr Harbone have previously donated to the Tories.
There's also a very messy libel case being brought by Mr Harbone against Ben Habib of Advance (formerly of Reform) which also has the potential to get messy for the Tories, Boris Johnson in particular, and any Tory who was involved in the 2019 campaign.
1. There are a finite number of high-value properties. Say I have £10m total assets and live in a £2m house. I could look for a £10m house but... there aren't many around; they cost more to maintain and run; why would I want to tie all my wealth up in an illiquid asset?.
2. As I said: reintroduce the pension Lifetime Allowance (LTA) set at £1.5m.
You could raise other objections but they can all be dealt with.
If you are going to do it, announce it overnight.
Has a rather perverse interpretation of the word relative for that to hold.
Also, formally/formerly.
Also from last month
Ben Habib has just announced that Advance UK is taking a step back in order to allow the momentum behind Restore Britain to build.
Ben has previously endorsed Restore Britain in Makerfield, and I thank him for that.
I believe that Ben and the wider Advance UK membership are patriots who want the best for Britain - they are welcome in our Restore Britain family to help deliver the radical change that the country so desperately needs.
Ben and I have not always agreed on logistics over the last few months, that’s politics, but this is an incredibly principled decision and I have the utmost respect for what Ben has sacrificed to build Advance to where it is today.
For both Ben and I - it is country first, every single time.
It would be an honour to welcome Ben and the Advance UK membership into Restore Britain, but that is a decision for them and I will respect whatever they decide.
In the years to come, today will be seen as a significant event on Britain’s path to restoration.
https://x.com/RupertLowe10/status/2062112586116571322
What about corporate wealth? And corporately held property - do Grainger need to worry about their £3.1bn investment portfolio, which is iirc residential? What about the Duke of Westminster's portfolio in Mayfair?
This will be immensely complex to avoid unintended consequences.
Shares etc are mobile and can be easily transferred out of the country. Land can not be.
We should be taxing all land at 0.5% (including primary properties, but abolishing stamp duty and Council Tax), with secondary properties potentially at 1%
Taxing other forms of wealth is not a very good idea and has been shown to fail time and again in practice wherever attempted.
It so confusing with these 87 different right wing parties, Restore, Reform, Advance, Reclaim, Retreat....there are more parties than Yaxley Lennon's nom de plumes
Election endorsements
The paper endorsed the Conservative Party in the 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019 UK general elections, before endorsing the Labour Party in the 2024 election.
A Lifetime Allowance helps, but people will still be using that as much as possible, so a lot of the taxable wealth will disappear. There are also some practical problems with lifetime allowances and how they’re calculated.
PS: I don’t actually own a £2m house. I own a “modest” maisonette, although it’s in London, so it is still worth gazillions.
You can't just do it cold. You have to lay the groundwork in speeches and with journalists and lead people over many months.
Sadly, this is where we're at.
White supremacists with links to banned neo-Nazi groups are helping to fund Restore Britain.
Rupert Lowe’s party could hold the balance of power in Thursday’s Makerfield by-election by splitting the Right-wing vote with Reform UK, clearing the way for Labour’s Andy Burnham to win.
Some of Restore’s supporters are so openly racist that Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, the far-Right activist detained last week under counter-terrorism laws, has questioned whether the party is too extreme.
Yaxley-Lennon, who uses the alias Tommy Robinson, challenged Mr Lowe to ask whether black people would be allowed to stand as parliamentary candidates for the party, or whether their skin colour would rule them out. Robinson suggested they should be able to stand
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/06/17/white-supremacists-fund-rupert-lowes-restore-party/
But absolutely I would expect the Duke of Westminster's portfolio to pay 1% per annum in tax under my proposal (0.5% for primary residences, 1% for all other properties) - why should it not be taxed?
If its making money from land, it should be paying towards the upkeep of the country that makes that viable.
I am not suggesting excluding land, just one principal residence per single person or couple. All other land would be valued and taxed.
There is no reason why foreign assets owned by British Citizens should be in some way exempt. (Of course people can commit fraud by failing to declare those assets but the penalties should be severe.)
IHT manages to deal with this, as does the benefits system.
Reform have not suffered the sort of hit the Tories got in 2024. Yet.
Pensions v ISAs? Pensions limit access before 55. Since we want people to fund their own retirement as far as possible, it seems right to give pensions preferential treatment.
Actually, I'd abolish ISAs which only really benefit the wealthy.
His EDL days, two of his best mates was a black guy and a Sikh guy who he knew from football hooliganism. His primary focus has always from the start anti-Muslim (he started EDL after the Islamist stunts like poppy burning and anti arm forces), but now dips into anti-African migrants.
But I wouldn't go too deep on the world according to Tommy, as now a big movitation appears to be how do I generate money to fund my lifestyle.
And to be more precise, ISAs benefit the wealthy and/or those on high incomes. I think the right balance is £10k per year (if you're saving more than that you're on a very high income), with a pot limit of perhaps £100k (again, average savings in the UK are about £20k).
As for pensions for ISAs, your argument perhaps holds up to a £0.5m pot, but beyond that the govt shouldn't need to encourage private pension saving, indeed it is better for the economy if they spend rather than save beyond that.
With a threshold of £1m say for personal wealth excluding principal residence and pension pot, you're looking at c.600k people with an aggregate wealth of about £3 trillion. 1% pa tax on that is a very useful £30bn - more than pays for the Defence review. It would be the price of British Citizenship - living abroad or assets abroad would not be an exemption.
Really nobody knows what will happen, media are just looking for stories and we are idiots if we follow what is said at moment.
Let the man take over and use the summer to prepare for September.
He4 cannot be worse than the succession of prime ministers we have had from the left and the RIGHT.
With pensions a £0.5m will get you an index linked pension of £25k - £30k pa. So below average earnings. Seems a bit harsh to me but the principal is the same.
Mitch McConnell remaining technically alive for an extra three weeks because of a manipulative procedural maneuver is exactly how he would have wanted to go out.
https://x.com/davidzmorris/status/2073584779123990562
He’s always been islamophobic but that’s it.
Back in his days a member of the MIG firm he ran with and got on with plenty of black and other races.
His former best mate, Kevin Carroll, has a mixed race daughter.
The EDL was born as a response to a protest by an Islamic group in Luton against the Army. Mid 2000’s
Byes for now
Ed
I was wrong.
Family in fear after Tommy Robinson shares video of black man with white granddaughters
Exclusive: Olajuwon Ayeni racially abused and falsely labelled a paedophile as far right weaponises clip of family in park
A family say their lives have been ruined after a video of a black man and his brother playing in the park with his white granddaughters was shared by Tommy Robinson and weaponised by the far right.
Olajuwon Ayeni, a musician from Redcar, North Yorkshire, has been racially abused and falsely labelled a paedophile in the week since the family video was stolen from the TikTok account of his wife, Natalie, whom he married five years ago, and shared by extremists online.
On Tuesday, the couple’s local MP, Anna Turley, was forced to write a letter providing a reference of good character for Ayeni when he was suspended by his management after the online disinformation.
“I’m devastated to receive the email from my management,” Ayeni said. “Music is my life. My social media will be damaged, my career will be tarnished … but I am determined to show the truth and hopefully clear it up.”
He and Natalie say they have been living in fear since being threatened in the street after Robinson shared the video with his 1.4 million followers. The far-right activist wrote on his X account: “Wtf is even going on here? Where are the parents?!”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/20/family-in-fear-after-tommy-robinson-shares-video-of-black-man-with-white-granddaughters
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8r457plg9o
Why would anybody lie about going to such a second rate university? Also claims studied medicine in 2 years....should have had warning alarms going off.
More seriously, he has told an absolute load of lies e.g. playing cricket for various high profile clubs. How dishonest do you have to be to actually get kicked out of the profession?
A review of one of the fans on sale via social media
About as good as those ‘shadowhawk torches’ that used to be scammed on social media as being used by the military
https://youtu.be/2KvGHRSVTUk?is=zwc2Aqt25VH2RKQU
I stand by what I said. He’s an out and out Islamophobe.
Somewhere among my (indirect) ancestors is a solicitor who served 16 months in prison for fraud in the 1890's and apparently went straight back to practice.
Genuine interest - has anyone seen an anti-wheelchair barrier like this one *? It is one of the most unusual beasts in the local barrier zoo. It was built in about 1975 to stop rat-runners on a route close to me, out of the kind of concrete blocks used at the time to keep vehicles from overrunning roundabouts. I recall being driven to infant school down here, and cycling the unmade road on my RSW14 before 1976.
It is a public footpath so this is an unlawful obstruction, and the width blocks most mobility aids and some pushchairs. On one side is a popular local pub, and on the is a Coop mini-supermarket, so movement matters and there is no easy alternative.
I can force it to be removed, but it needs consideration. That gate is to 10 acres of allotments, and they take their wheelbarrows through with planks on sideways and do not want bollards for that reason. I'll probably suggest replacing that gate on the left with 3 locking bollards at 1.5m spacing.
* I only seen these in 2 places - out here, and in the Lenton area of Nottingham to make an LTN in the late 1970s. It looks like onme designer who moved jobs. You can drive over them (I tried in ~1987 for interest), but I would not do it in a car with modern tyres. My Polo Mark 1 could do it with a lightly held wheel as in heavy snow at about 1mph.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/PSSJgk7nYMDRkbTA9
Just screwing the hard-working and enterprising even more and wasting the proceeds.
As the Wall Street Journal once said, "Goodbye, Great Britain, it was nice knowing you".