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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB to win most votes moves into evens on the Ladbrokes Euro elections market
My view of yesterday’s news about the breakaway anti-EU party at the Euro elections remains. Unless the official UKIP legal challenge succeeds I believe it will impact on its performance on May 22nd. The question is how much?
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As I remember it, part of the Liberal Democrats' unsuccessful challenge to the Devon result in 1994 was a sworn statement by 4,000 people saying that they had voted Literal Democrat when they had intended to vote Liberal Democrat. In other words, they were openly boasting about their own stupidity in not reading the ballot paper and arrogance in not checking the names of the candidates beforehand. Anybody who goes to the polling station in order to vote, without having checked the names of the candidates beforehand, should be extra careful and conscious of the fact that they have not yet done so.
My view then, and now, is that the democratic wishes of the 200,000 people who voted in the Devon constituency in 1994 should not be held to ransom to accommodate that utter arrogance, impertinence and stupidity of the 4,000 people who couldn't be bothered to pay attention.
It's a serious point. Perhaps the 4,000 were the dimmest of the dim. Or just people with learning difficulties. Makes no difference...
Any loophole whereby a "clever" but malicious individual can take advantage of the trust or carelessness of a segment of the electorate, for the sole purpose of misleading them or frustrating their democratic wishes should be severely deprecated, and such loophole closed.
Which it has, AFAIU.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27126465
It was only on closer scrutiny of the form that I saw the real UKIP at the bottom of the ballot.
That, again, emphasises my point. You had the intelligence and the common sense to read the whole of the ballot paper (which, in this case, means reading the names of all the parties) before (hypothetically) marking your vote on it. So will most normal people. Only a very small minority of booliaks won't.
Testing ....
UKIP (lead candidate = Jill Seymour)
Eng Dem (Derek Hilling)
BNP (Michael Coleman)
We Demand A Referendum Now Party (Nikki Sinclair)
An Independence From Europe (Mike Nattrass)
no2eu (Dave Nellist)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/west-midlands-euro-candidates/
Has there been wider coverage than the letters section of the Plymouth Herald?
http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Devon-UKIP-voter-revealed-party-s-events-manager/story-20999035-detail/story.html
http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-2-lib_24.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage#Background
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-27132035
... or he would be, if he'd been born in Cornwall rather than being a cream-tea Devonian. :-)
The unions had a specific - and admitted - objective at the time to frustrate the actions of the government (and ideally to overthrow them). They acted collectively to try to achieve this objective.
Basically "the markets" don't care what the UK government does. However, if they think it makes UK government debt less attractive then they will invest their clients' money elsewhere.
If a government truly wants to be independent of the market then it just needs to tax as much as it wants to spend. Either that or try the medieval approach of repudiating its debts.
It'll be interesting to see how the markets and customers of the Co-op will react to this move.
Old Labour, New Danger
If he wins the next election, Ed Miliband is set to unleash a radical Old Labour agenda
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9191671/back-to-the-future-5/
Certainly it seems the best case against UKIP is the actions of their own MEPs.
lockquote class="Quote" rel="AndyJS">No shortage of anti-EU candidates in the West Midlands:
UKIP (lead candidate = Jill Seymour)
Eng Dem (Derek Hilling)
BNP (Michael Coleman)
We Demand A Referendum Now Party (Nikki Sinclair)
An Independence From Europe (Mike Nattrass)
no2eu (Dave Nellist)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/west-midlands-euro-candidates/
The Department for Work and Pensions has signalled it will take a tough line on breaking up the welfare system in the event of Scottish independence, saying that without sharing the pound it would “not be possible” to share a payments system, and it would cost up to £400m for Scotland to create its own.
In the latest in a series of official papers making the case for Scotland remaining in the UK, the DWP stressed the benefits of pooling resources, stating that benefit spending per head of the population in Scotland was 2% higher than for the UK as a whole in 2012-13.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc623d62-cb07-11e3-ba9d-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2zmZO8fzQ
Change mainly due to more Cons to UKIP and a good subpoll in Scotland for Labour.
On Best PM, Cameron is supported by 92% of Cons VI, Miliband by 58% of Labour VI, Clegg by 41% of LD VI, of whom 26% support Cameron and 7% Miliband; and for UKIP 30% support Cameron whilst 64% are DK - presumably as Farage is not among the choice offered.
Looking at 2010 Voters, 73% of Cons support Cameron (22% DK), 46% of Labour support Miliband (42% DK & 8% Cameron)) and of the LDs, 22% support Cameron, 18% Miliband, 15% Clegg and 45% DK.
Farage claiming to be the heir to Thatcher while sat in the North will definitely ensure some people come out and vote (the Labour voters).
The BBC has learned that Ian McNicoll, Labour's general secretary, is looking to move loans worth more than £1m to the trade union-owned Unity Trust Bank.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27137762
In short I find the idea that they might lose half their seats somewhat unlikely (at least outside Scotland). This may be a failure of imagination on my part but IIRC they have been losing about 1/3 of their local councillors in each set of local elections since the Coalition was formed. Given their polling they arguably should have been doing worse but they have not been, probably because of personal loyalties etc.
At the moment I think they might lose 15-20 seats with a significant number, 6-7, in Scotland. If I am right in this the prospects for tory gains at Lib Dem expense are going to be more limited than they might hope and are unlikely to significantly offset any swing losses to Labour to any material extent.
To remain the largest party the tories have to limit the extent of the Labour swing by getting into a lead at least approaching what they had the last time (which seems a very big ask) or by deploying their vote more efficiently. This is why I find their current performance in light of UKIP so encouraging. As I mentioned yesterday if 45% of UKIP is coming from the tories and UKIP are in the 12-15% band then they should be costing the tories 5-6% pushing them back to 30% or even less.
But they are not. So they have gained some support (some Lib Dems obviously) elsewhere. The efficiency of their vote will depend on where they have lost support to UKIP and where they have gained this countervailing support. I remain optimistic that the tory vote at the next election will be more efficient than it was in 2010.
Edited extra bit: Apparently Clegg's to announce he loves EU long time:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27129819
It's a 'dangerous fantasy' to leave the EU, he will claim. Odd choice of words for a chap who argued (when reneging on his manifesto promise to support a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty) that it would be better to have an In/Out referendum.
An interesting article on the decline in education standards and what influenced it from the 1960s by an ex- and now returning teacher - Robert Peal.
He traces it from the absolute pupil freedom and do-as-you-please ideas of A.S. Neil (HM of Summerhill School in Suffolk which influenced many teacher training colleges in the '60s and '70s. "We set out to make a school in which we should allow children freedom to be themselves,’ he wrote. ‘In order to do this, we had to renounce all discipline, all direction, all suggestion, all moral training, all religious instruction.’"
"Much of this was reinforced by the 1967 Plowden Report which an immensely influential document which became the unofficial core text of teacher-training.
It required the teaching of reading - Instead of old-fashioned phonics schemes, where individual letter sounds were learned and then built into longer words, teachers encouraged ‘look-say’ methods which taught pupils to recognise complete words.
When one despondent primary school teacher, trained in the early Fifties, challenged a teacher-trainer on these new methods she was told ‘one must never “teach” reading. If one’s classroom was sufficiently interesting, reading would “emerge”.’
In maths, meanwhile, in the Sixties, the memorisation of times-tables and basic calculations was abandoned in favour of real world problems, such as making models or ‘playing shop’.
It dismissed the benefit of memorisation, discipline for bad behaviour, divisions between different subjects, correcting pupils’ work and reading schemes."
Mr Peal then goes onto describe scenes of classroom chaos in 2011 in the Birmingham school where he taught and its educational environ.
"Education spending increased from £39 billion in 1997 to £89 billion in 2009 — much of this on a series of quangos staffed by stalwarts of the education establishment."
"Many of my 11-year-old pupils arriving from primary school could barely read and their handwriting was illegible.
The school library prominently displayed a raft of ghost-written memoirs of various footballers and reality TV stars, while tucked away on the fiction shelves I found a spine that was notably lacking in lurid colours. It was an old copy of the complete works of Shakespeare, a lonely reminder of the days when the school had intellectual aspirations for its pupils.
While most classrooms had their desks in islands to promote group work, I resolutely kept mine in rows.
When I left the school, I received a card signed by all the pupils in one of my classes.
‘You are the reason for my interest in history,’ read one of the comments.
‘I’m gonna miss your history lessons because I actually learned,’ read another. These pupils were crying out for orderly, well-structured and information-filled lessons."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2611750/
Just to make writing the Saturday post-election piece even more tricky!
I'm sure this'll have been answered on the previous thread but the Euro-count will be on Sunday, won't it? Though I suspect that there'll be leaks from the counts as to rough impressions as the papers are separated.
No break from the Coop group though - still taking the cash.
1 British Pound Sterling equals
1.68 US Dollar
1 British Pound Sterling equals
1.21 Euro
!!
Edit to say its well known in technical circles why the DWP system is a grade a disaster, I very much doubt new Scottish systems will be very different (the real faults are baked into the nature of any Government IT project)
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/vote-share-performances-in-council-by.html
Hopefully we will avoid outsourcing to the inept companies that the Tories use and thus reduce their pals salaries.
How much?
How do you plan to commission it in 18 months?
Whilst Scotland has its fair share of back office functions in things like the DWP it is completely unrealistic to think that a modern civil service can simply be created out of thin air at no particular cost. It is also absurd not to presume that that civil service will not make a significant number of expensive mistakes as they try to learn their new tasks. One is tempted to think of the learning curve on Edinburgh trams.
The fantasy that everything can remain the same apart from the bits that the SNP want to change is no more than that. Nothing is impossible but only an idiot would believe this is going to be easy.
CONTROVERSIAL plans to scrap Scotland’s centuries-old principle of corroboration have been delayed amid mounting criticism from the legal establishment.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/macaskill-in-u-turn-on-corroboration-law-change-1-3385075
And which letter equates to which sound.
In the nineties.
This is at least partly fiction as it purports to tell about modern education
You show your complete stupidity by including the health service which has been autonomous since the beginning and has no need of help from the English version.
Financier's link on education reads a bit oddly to me. I grew up at the time Peal is talking about. Summerhill was regarded as weird by nearly everyone then as now - nice idea maybe but nuts. I don't believe that he influenced "many teacher training colleges".
That said, my school (which was American run and abroad, so not strictly relevant) mostly taught as Peal described - learn words as a whole, use real-world problems rather than memorisation, encourage reading of popular themes, some Shakespeare but not a lot. We had fairly laid-back interaction with teachers and certainly didn't wear uniforms or pay any special attention to discipline. I was offered places at MIT and Yale and went on to get a PhD, which wasn't untypical of the students.
The underlying point IMO is that the KEY factors are not really what particular methods are used (nor, pace the last government, the quality of the buildings - some of my schooling was in the rooms of an underground youth club) but the commitment of the teachers to make them work and the support of parents. If both of those are sorted, almost anything works. If the teachers are demoralised and the parents don't care, nothing does. Is there in fact non-anecdotal evidence that standards have declined, as Peal asserts?
http://party.coop/2012/07/09/ed-miliband-mp-sets-out-his-banking-reform-plans-at-the-co-operative-bank-hq/
By the way, I think your "we own 10% of the UK assets" a touch simplistic......does rUK own 92% of Edinburgh Castle?
International law provides:
The UK’s fixed property in Scotland (e.g. Government buildings) would become the property of the new Scottish State; conversely Scotland would have no claim on the UK’s fixed property in the rest of the UK or overseas
The UK’s movable property in Scotland would become the property of the new Scottish State where it is specifically for local use
Other assets and liabilities would fall to be apportioned equitably. This may be calculated by such means as share of population or, possibly with regard to the national debt, for example, by share of GDP. Historical contribution appears to be of no relevance: thus UK fixed property in Scotland would become the property of the new Scottish State even if its construction had been paid for UK taxpayers as a whole, and no compensation would be due to the rUK
http://tinyurl.com/lflc8vm
According to Wikipedia, Nigel Farage's father was an alcoholic:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage#Background
So this is what you come down to. Sling any mud, anywhere, and hope that it sticks.
However Labour's finally admitted they oversaw grade inflation, which Hunt himself called 'a great crime':
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/labour-admits-great-crime-on-education-tristram-hunt-says-his-party-encouraged-schools-to-aim-too-low--and-pupils-paid-the-price-9053693.html
Tell me, how did you vote for Labour's education changes?
Any country that has evolved its own systems over a period of time will of course have such expertise and Scotland would no doubt acquire it in time. But that time and expertise would be very expensive.
So far as the NHS is concerned whilst there is a management system in place in Scotland it is a lot more integrated on specialist functions and research than you seem to think. The efficiencies of being part of a larger system with significant resources to throw at new problems would be lost.
I would have thought the fair way to do it would be to split up the "other assets and liabilities" as a remainder. e.g. if the unmovable property happened to split 95% to rUK and 5% to Scotland, then Scotland should get a bigger share of the rest.
Today we have pathetic smear attempts on The Axe, the Coop and Farage's dad.
You can set your watch by YouGov.
There is a conservative explanation — that the culprit is not the free market, but massive government interference in the market pinning interest rates to the floor and sending asset prices to the stratosphere.
The only thing "pinning" interest rates anywhere is the zero bound, preventing interest rates falling far enough to bring aggregate demand in line with aggregate supply. Any learned conservative that is well-read on the economic debate would know this. Nelson's explanation is not a empiricist, conservative one, based on thoughtful consideration of history. It is the ideological libertarian one, that purists continue to hold no matter how much it conflicts with the reality, as is clear from the difficulties the Eurozone and Sweden are facing right now.
If, in fact he was one.
It's fair enough to ask someone who is standing to represent people, and who has represented people before, how he voted. Did he rebel, or did he blindly vote with the party on education matters?
In this mental picture that I have of Godfrey Bloom finding himself in the same room as an immigrant, he wears a certain look on his face. The look a virgin wears as she awaits the Sultan.
Part of his apprehension is from noticing that the bottle of baby oil on the table is almost empty.
Is that roughly what it feels like to be a UKIPper?
Tell us.
He will counter UKIP's argument that it is the anti-establishment party, saying: "At long last someone is taking on the Eurosceptic establishment - and it's us.
Is that the Eurosceptic establishment that has handed over more power to Brussels and Luxembourg decade on decade for the last forty years? You have to laugh at the intellectual contortions the pro-EU brigade need to make to come up with their arguments. Every job connected to European trade is "at risk", even when the author of the statistic says that's not true. Companies with one foreign director are "founded by immigrants". The establishment is eurosceptic. They're in cloud cuckoo land.
Supermarkets that don't break down the VAT split on their receipts.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27110123
Co-Op group must be the product of at least four mergers in the last 10 years - Somerfield, Britainnia, United Co-Op and Co-Co group, CWS and CRS,
" Samuel (born 1989) and Thomas (born 1991). … Victoria (born 2000) and Isabelle (born 2005)."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage#Personal_life
http://footballtaxhavens.wordpress.com/2013/11/24/celtic-fc-getting-sucked-into-the-labour-party-co-operative-bank-scandal/
http://footballtaxhavens.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/co-operative-bank-risk-management-football-loans-being-managed-for-rundown-or-exit/
(1) Talk in high level wooly terms
Britain is always at its best when we are open, outward-facing and engaged, a leader on the world stage.
(2) Give credit to the EU for things that would happen anyway.
We are IN for jobs. For the millions of businesses who rely on trade with our neighbours.
(3) If in doubt, smear your opponents as reactionary bigots.
If not us, who? The Labour Party? The Conservatives? Where are they? What are they doing to stop the populists and the xenophobes?
The latest YouGov figures are:
Con 32%
Lab 37%
LD 10%
UKIP 15%
As a leftie I find it worrying that Con + UKIP = 47%, which is +7 on the 2010 GE. The next general election could be a case of Labour winning a battle but losing the war.
'At risk' is a beautifully appalling use of language. It's vague enough to be accurate but worrying enough to make people stop and think.
I was 'at risk' of being run over several times on Sunday. I took my life in my hands, but bravely crossed multiple roads anyway.
It's also interesting to note the potential fragmentation of various countries (UK, Venice/Italy, Catalonia/Spain). My fear is that this would enable the EU to easier dominate a larger number of smaller countries.
On that note, I fail to see why Cornwall suddenly has some sort of weird minority status. Why them, and not Yorkshire? Or Lancashire? Or East Anglia? It just feeds fragmentation, special pleading and so forth. We're all Englishmen, for god's sake.
It's a bit like "elf n safety"; I would estimate that somewhere around 95% of the loony elf n safety stories are the result of misinterpretation and the rest are the result of some enthusiastic junior who was smartly slapped down before any action was taken.
That said, the Budget Bounce is relevant, not for any lasting effect - there hasn't been one - but what it shows about how readily votes might shift in response to events: something highly relevant to an election campaign. There are a lot of undecided and persuadables out there.