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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post Easter Euros poll sees almost no change
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post Easter Euros poll sees almost no change
This morning’s Sun sees the first post holiday weekend Euros poll from YouGov and the only changes on the the last survey are all within the margin of error. LAB no change, UKIP and CON both down one with the LDs back up one at 10%.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27115043
Harder, but not impossible.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689
Another piece of evidence that the trend in the two different crime surveys are correct?
Particularly as UKIP-style stricter immigration may well lead to more sad cases of genuine husbands and wives being split.
2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds
http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html
It's about Scotland, but it has wider significance than that.
Selective amnesia to fool the audience in this sort of situation makes me sick. Farages wife is NOT A NON UK NATIONAL.
So I take it Mo Farrah is not British then? How do you answer that one lefties? If you are not born in Britain you can never become a British citizen. Is that what you are technically saying? Now who is the hypocrite?
https://www.gov.uk/becoming-a-british-citizen/if-your-spouse-is-a-british-citizen
Oh dear - I dislike both UKIP and Farage but I'm not sure many secretaries would be happy with your rather characterisation of the the role as " hardly a 'skilled' job".
UKIP Leader has many faults, but being married isn't one of them.
Wow, talk about opening the borders...
It is a lot closer than I frankly expected it to be at the time the bet was placed but unless there is a major surprise today I should win by about £5bn.
Is anyone still in touch with Tim?
For instance, I was surprised a few months ago to find a secretary at a meeting who was taking shorthand. I hadn't met one in years.
So the question is: would UKIP allow someone with secretarial skills to come to work in the UK?
Mike: Today's Poll is Cons:34; LAB:37;LD:10; UKIP:12
YouGov looks at the VOTE/WNV for the EU election.
It finds that 48% (+5) definitely will vote and a further 16% are very likely to vote (8 and 9 on a 1-10 scale where 10 is will vote).
Of the current VI, the strongest Voters are UKIP and the weakest are the Cons. Also 25% of the current Cons VI will vote UKIP, whilst only 8% of LAB and 5% of LD will do so.
On blame for the spending cuts: Coalition is on 25 (0), last Labour Government 38(+2) and Both is 25(-1).
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/zvvptj27x4/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-220414.pdf
It is perhaps widely abused, giving rise to a sham marriage industry. The coalition has brought in some restrictions, notably an income minimum to get a spouse visa: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/9401355/Pakistan-wedding-rush-to-beat-new-UK-visa-laws.html
It is not nessecary to be married to get this status, evidence of longstanding cohabitation is enough. I recently employed a Non EU doctor who got a permenant visa Tier 4, by proving cohabitation with her EU partner.
There are many reasons to dislike Farage, but his wife, or his Latvian lover are not good reasons: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-handed-3247456
And who do you think is most to blame for the current spending cuts? (Changes from 6/7 April)
Labour 38% (+2)
Coalition 25% (nc)
Both 25% (-1)
Do you think "secretary" is likely to be on it?
For perspective, here is the Australian list:
http://www.workpermit.com/australia/skilled/occupation_list.htm
In our area UKIP are shouting loudly, but our canvass returns are showing only a trickle of UKIP support - and it looks like they haven't got the candidates to fight that many seats - looking like they are less strong than they claim.
I agree about Secretaries being plentiful in the UK for employment, a lot of typing has been outsourced electronically via companies such as dictateIT. Many secretaries at my hospital were made redundant when this company was taken on: https://www.dictate.it/frontend/
It may be more interesting to find out if our politicians spouse secretaries actually do any relavent work for their salary, perhaps challenge them to a typing or shorthand test, or simply phone their offices and see who answers. The Inland Revenue assesses whether a spouse-secretary is bonefide this way, so there is precedent. Sauce for the goose etc...
2010 LD Westminster: Lab 29%, LD 37%, Con 17%, UKIP 9%, Green 5%
2010 LD EU: Lab 18%, LD 35%, Con 12%, UKIP 19%, Green 12%
Is it plausible that if and when the referendum vote goes against the SNP (which I hope and expect), then the SNP will flounder in the following UK general election; or will they still be a safe bet as an alternative to Labour and the Tories?
If the SNP are negatively affected, will the Lib Dems be the beneficiary?
(ps can you add some other ways of being able to comment via Blogger?)
YouGov reporting a possible turnout of well over 40% in the Euros is a bit of a surprise. If that figure is hopelessly wrong and the actual votes cast don't look much like their final estimations, won't that tell us that they are basically a bit Angus Reid?
We are only a few weeks off finding out a lot more about how good our opinion pollsters are.
Not unadjacent to why the kippers dislike Cameron. Better the failure of 2001 and 2005 than the 97 seat gains of 2010.
That is interesting, but also the switchers are not going back to the LDs but are supporting UKIP and Green - of course it could be a different subset of LDs in each case.
People are welcome to comment on my site if they wish (especially if they think that I've made a mistake, which no doubt I have on several occasions). It's mainly somewhere for me to dump my betting thinking rather than a blog commitment, so I haven't set it up with much forethought about such things.
I have a few more posts that I want to get out of my system, but once I've got all my thoughts down, I'm not going to keep posting for the sake of it. It will just be a resource, primarily for my own benefit.
Weird outside. I could see my breath, so it's probably 6C or lower, but it felt humid...
Inquisition: incidentally, you get some bonus stuff just for pre-ordering (any version, I think). Leaning towards just the standard version, but I'll wait and see what extra stuff the Deluxe gets [on top of currently announced things]. Worth mentioning that GAME do send stuff early, so it arrives on release date or earlier, whereas Amazon usually don't.
I do wonder if UKIP will beat Labour. It's looking increasingly like the blues will get third and the Lib Dems will struggle valiantly with the Greens for the honour of fourth.
Of course. Many of Lincolnshire's fields are now replete with Lithuanian accents. Those jobs were once done exclusively by local workers. They may be better .... they may be harder working and they may work for less but they are not really skilled jobs.
Is anyone arguing that they don't take British jobs?
Surely the argument is whether that is good or bad?
Also he rode on the backs of the Left (who were desperate for power) to get elected and fooled them for years about his hidden objective - massive personal wealth and global adulation.
There are always rationalisations of course, usually involving "the greater good" but it is important never to forget that these are rationalisations.
30 minutes 30 seconds
On April 21, ExxonMobil UK subsidiary Esso said it had shut one of the country's main underground fuel pipelines after police found a stash of diesel they believe was siphoned off by thieves. Police arrested two men in connection with the theft, with more than 30,000 litres of diesel allegedly involved.
"Lines of enquiry include establishing the exact amount of fuel stolen and examining the suspected sophisticated method used in this alleged theft," police said in a statement.
Police launched their investigation after a large quantity of diesel was found in an industrial storage unit at West Wellow, Hampshire, southern England, where the thieves are thought to have tapped into the 14-inch pipeline. A police statement said the stolen fuel was being stored safely and was being retrieved by engineers from the refinery.
The Midline Pipeline runs north from Esso's Fawley oil refinery near Southampton to a terminal in Birmingham, central England.
http://www.hazardexonthenet.net/article/74340/
Can't promise to ask and he may not take them.
Now everyone who was at the top (or near enough) have gone, Labour's more electable. From a Leftish point of view, anyway.
Secondly, I don't think we take into account sufficiently the anger over Clegg's total volte face over tuition fees, immediately after taking office. I suspect a lot of Lab/LD's won't come back until he, and anyone else closely identified with that business have gone..
Speaking in Carlisle, Scotland’s First Minister will insist that the “social union” between the people of the four members of the United Kingdom would remain if the Scottish people vote to leave it in their September referendum.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/provocative-alex-salmond-promises-an-independent-scotland-will-help-north-of-england-fight-the-power-of-london-9275470.html
For those interested in energy security, the following is downloadable.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/302172/Refining_and_fuel_imports_in_the_UK__FINAL_VERSION.pdf
And he can **** off if he thinks he speaks for 'northerners'.
"Labour and the Lib Dems don't exactly like UKIP either."
And being politicians, they will be hypocritical.
My view ... immigration probably has some financial benefits for the "country". It certainly must increase GDP (whatever that is really), it reduces wage costs (ask the farmers) and it increases the skill set (overall).
But some parts of the population definitely suffer. Why then did Labour support it?
They are outraged when austerity measures affect "vulnerable" sectors of the population. They must be protected, it's unfair, the Government don't understand etc.
Is that not hypocrisy?
This politics game is very complicated, isn't it?
Has Salmond joined the Better Together campaign? Heaven has a place for a sinner who repents...
Surely so it is with the LibDems and tuition fees. You might argue the viability of the policy and I do but the LibDems lost the policy because quite correctly the Conservatives vetoed it.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :
Con 300 .. Lab 280 .. LibDem 38 .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Green 1 .. Respect 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority
.....................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
Each of my sons, who are executive directors of Plcs, have a PA (a lady in each case) who acts for him and also for other board members.
The PA arranges travel etc, takes minutes at important meetings and circulates them. However it is not a 9-5 job as they are required to arrive and stay as needed and frequently travel with him on visits to other parts of the global group.
This requires an alert and intelligent person who is able to use their own initiative and so is remunerated more highly than a "secretary". On where they come from - that is irrelevant as long as they are excellent in their job and present themselves well. A few extra languages is nowadays more a requirement than a well-received bonus.
Usually, the PAs have to be better educated than is the norm in the UK, are mostly graduates and frequently come from outside the UK.
To give a more serious answer - marrying someone British gives you the right to become British, but doesn't make you British unless you choose to, no matter how many CAPITAL LETTERS YOU EMPLOY. Does it matter? Not to me. But apparently to you?
I don't suppose anyone will disagree with "NI 18" - but where do you see UKIP's second seat coming from?
Eastleigh/Thanet South ?
I’m sure the sense betrayal was palpable by those ‘students’ that voted LD on the back of such campaigning.
Related to this is the factor that the rough equality of support for Yes and No already means that any MP or MSP could upset and lose up to half his or her existing vote at the next GEs (both Scottish and UK) by coming out on one side or another.
This is not an issue for the SNP and for the Tories (as they have long come out of the closet and the damage, such as it is, is done). But it must be a real problem for Labour and the LDs and
Excepting the 13 seats of the "JackW Dozen", to be issued from next month, I shall not be issuing seat by seat pronouncements.
However in Ukip's case it's hardly a state secret that Herr Farage is one of the two. The other is so marginal it keeps popping in and out of the projection with almost predictable regularity.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/england-on-fire-as-dragons-take-their-revenge-2014042385887
Otherwise I agree, Sir, about Coalitions. That's the whole point; a group of politicians find enough points on which they agree to form a Government.
That saying, I take the point about VAT. I think that a reversal here should be the next tax cut!
To my mind the LibDems were guilty of executing an electorially excellent campaign proposal that they were in no position to implement even in the event of a Coalition.
In short they successfully deluded themselves and students.
As for future tax cuts I'd be bound to say "Carry on Danny" - Continue to Increase the tax threshold to help the working poor and also look at the starting rate for NI.
Only if UKIP caught in a gaff or lie is it deemed to be serious, heinous, etc,.
"In March 2014, public sector net borrowing excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSNB ex) was £6.7 billion. This was £4.7 billion lower than in March 2013, when it was £11.4 billion"
And looks as if DavidL has won his bet with tim with £7.5bn to spare. He is thus inducted into the Most Salacious Order of the PbTories.
We've seen a bit of this in the US, but these rich donors must be a mixed blessing. If you end up having to optimize your campaign for them, or worse let them dictate the nature of the campaign, it risks blowing your strategy off course. Meanwhile it's liable to deter smaller donors, who won't want to blow their precious twenty pounds if it looks meaningless compared to the big money.
A better way to handle these people might be to ask them to match small individual donations pound-for-pound, which would help both the leadership strategy and the grassroots efforts rather than smothering them.
But Clegg's promises - they were different. This was a man who was going to do it differently, he wasn't just another politician. YOU COULD BELIEVE NICK. He was on your side, those nasty tuition fees. HE WOULD VOTE AGAINST it. Because he wasn't just another politician, he was Nick Clegg. The deception was deeper with Clegg. The lies worse, because he built that entire campaign on being the one you could trust, a different type of politician. Except he wasn't.
Of course wiser, more cynical and less naive heads won't have been taken in as they were. But this was alot of these young pup's first elections. First cut/deepest and all that.
Key figures are as follows:.
• For the financial year 2013/14 public sector net borrowing excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions, the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan and the transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund was £107.7 billion. This was £7.5 billion lower than the same period in 2012/13, when it was £115.1 billion.
•During the financial ye ar 2013/14, £31.1 billion has been transferred from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund to HM Treasury. Of this amount, £12.2 billion has had an impact on net borrowing.
• For the financial year 2013/14, public sector net borrowing excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSNB ex) was £95.5 billion. This was £14.8 billion higher than the same period in 2012/13, when it was £80.7 billion.
• In March 2014, public sector net borrowing excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSNB ex) was £6.7 billion. This was £4.7 billion lower than in March 2013, when it was £11.4 billion.
• No cash transfers were made from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund to HM Treasury in March 2013 or 2014.
• The sale of Lloyds Banking Group shares in March 2014 reduced the public sector net cash requirement by £4.2 billion. The ONS will publish details of other effects alongside the announcement of the National Accounts Classification decision.
• The central government net cash requirement for the financial year 2013/14 was £75.4 billion; £29.6 billion lower than the same period in 2012/13, when it was £105.0 billion.
• At the end of March 2014, Public sector net debt excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSND ex) was £1,268.7 billion, equivalent to 75.8% of gross domestic product (GDP).
The figure which stands out is central government net cash requirement (CGNCR) for the year being down nearly £30 billion. CGNCR is the metric used by the Treasury and Debt Management Office to calculate actual borrowing through new Gilt and T-Bill issuance and is the core driver of debt servicing costs.