Keir and present danger – politicalbetting.com
Keir and present danger – politicalbetting.com
Andy Burnham’s allies have urged Angela Rayner to strike a leadership pact that would see her named as his successor in Downing StreetRead how Labour sources claim the pair discussed the idea at a secret summit ?https://t.co/N32l5yKbNc pic.twitter.com/CSpICMYMd9
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"Foxy: Pretty appalling UK figures on healthy life expectancy, declining by 2 years in the last decade. It has improved slowly in comparable countries:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/apr/27/people-in-uk-spend-fewer-years-in-good-health-than-a-decade-ago-study-finds?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
This is being driven by declining mental and physical health of the working age population, including a noticeable drop in the youngest cohorts:
https://www.health.org.uk/reports-and-analysis/analysis/socioeconomic-disadvantage-and-self-reported-health
We are not going to be reducing the welfare bill if we do not tackle this issue."
It is hardly surprising though, when we have immigration at scale from countries with much lower life expectancies. Have a wave of immigrants from say Afghanistan - where life expectancy is 12 years less than world averages - and it is an inevitable consequence.
https://data.who.int/countries/004
Even worse, life expectancy in Nigeria is around 54, one of the lowest in the world.
The extra health care burden is an obvious consequence of large scale population migration into the UK. Better universal healthcare, free at the point of use, is one of the drivers of the desire to make a new life here. The likelihood is the migrants are likely to have greater health issues manifesting earlier than the native born population. Outwith any arguments about the rights and wrongs of migration, we simply have not made provision for this on a national scale.
I think the issue is Starmers poor judgement has been in the spotlight and unless she’s cleared as in no HMRC penalty and they deem it to be a genuine mistake then it’s going to be risky putting in a new leader with that baggage.
As much as I like Rayner one would think Labour need a squeaky clean new leader who won’t immediately be portrayed as a tax cheat by most of the media .
Taking captured CO2, reacting it with electrolytic hydrogen to make methane, burning the methane in a CCGT and then having to capture the same CO2 again is, in my view, a fecking bonkers idea.
This, however, doesn't stop people wanting to do it.
Better to use the hydrogen as fuel for power generation.
Nothing to do with 14 years of ruinous Conservative government, oh no.
Alas, I think that puts the lass from The Heed* out of the running.
*Phillipson.
And all those bills have finally turned inescapably red.
Pass me another Big Mac, luv.
The classic comment on hydrogen is that many of the problems with it go away - if you add carbon.
"In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic caused the largest fall in life expectancy in England since World War II (see Figure 2). Although life expectancy recovered partially thereafter, in 2022 it remained below the 2019 pre-pandemic level."
Good morning, everyone.
Hydrogen is certainly a better seasonal storage vector than batteries.
And if we are only going to use it in peaking plants, rather than mid-merit, the quantities required won't be so great.
Starmer and present and danger works for me
- Use spare electricity for Electrolysis to make H2 and O2.
- Sabatier reaction CO2 + H2 -> CH4 + H2O (exothermic).
- Take pure CO2 and add that O2 to it at 20% (so it's easy to handle).
- Burn CH4 in that CO2+O2 -> pure CO2 + H2O.
- CO2 goes back to the Sabatier reaction.
- Closed cycle.
No idea if this a) works and b) is the "close to being economic" solution though.
But you've got to start somewhere.
You're after an efficient closed cycle for energy storage, the fewer extra processes the more likely it will be efficient.
I thought Chuck was grabbing at the (lack of) security issues to cancel his visit?
But it is possible for the blob to right on occasion.
Anti-Trump sentiment being examined as motive for White House press dinner shooting
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/26/white-house-press-dinner-shooting-motive
And ironically many of their voters are on them but we’ll likely see the same FAFO where the gullible vote for Reform thinking the cuts will fall on others and then when they’re the ones fxcked we’ll see the same moaning and shock.
We have a society where families need 2 jobs to pay the bills. Housing costs are unaffordable without 2 incomes and even then can be impossible for many. As a starter for 10, that's a bad place to be.
And that has meant that there's less left over for useful investment, and here we are.
Pass me another Big Mac, luv.
I don’t doubt that Reform will do very well with this cohort because almost everyone is aspirational, even if this gets wildly and irrationally optimistic with social mobility so limited. Look at how many poor people oppose inheritance tax because they think they are just one lucky break away from millions.
We'll then look to you as a handy scapegoat.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5517142#Comment_5517142
In other news, Clear And Present Danger was actually on Freeview last night! TLC Channel 12
Methane is basically better, more efficient hydrogen. In many ways.
You get better storage properties, less leak issues, chemistry… the list goes on and on.
Or does it mean anyone not born in the UK but who has acquired the right of permanent residence?
I note the Epsom "rape", which got the usual rent-a-mob down to the Surrey town and caused disturbances, turned out to be a non-event. That's the pernicious impact of social media and misinformation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9370jqxy18o
My view on him is: “meh”.
He’s not eligible to be a candidate. She certainly has flaws, HMRC just being the most prominent, but has a decent chance of winning.
For me this is (a) mind games to undermine her confidence; and (b) unstated misogyny
It doesn't have to be like that. Politicians of all parties used to be good at delivering a feel good veneer, even if it was at best stuck onto tatty chipboard underneath. Today's lot have forgotten that trick, which to go back on topic is the reason why the Keir plotters have a problem.
With one exception - Burnham. Bottle up the Manchester magic and sprinkle it over the whole country and they can turn things around. I know its difficult for him to get to Number 10 and more difficult for the people he'd bypass to get the job, but there really is no other option.
Carry on working hard. Others need your money 👍
MM also makes the very common mistake of misunderstanding what life expectancy numbers mean. Afghanistan's life expectancy is 59 versus 80 in the UK (2021 figures). People often presume that this means most Afghans live to be about 59. However, this is not the case. The lower life expectancy is driven by high infant mortality, which brings down the average, but if you survive infancy, then conditional life expectancy is much higher. The difference between life expectancy at birth between Afghanistan and the UK is 21 years, but conditional life expectancy at age 15 in Afghanistan is an additional 67 years, and the UK figure is also 67 years!
Moreover, generally immigrants live longer than native populations: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32781-8/fulltext To simplify, we think this is a healthy migrant effect: people who migrate tend to be healthier than people who stay where they are. To quote:
The aggregation of available data on mortality in migrant populations is crucial for comprehensively and rigorously summarising the knowledge base, providing insight with regard to the association between migration and mortality to inform health services, and countering discriminatory or hostile policies.36,37 Contrary to the negative representation of migrants in the media as a burden to health systems,38 our research provides substantial evidence in support of the mortality advantage of migrants compared with the general population in high-income countries. These results therefore challenge misconceptions and policies that do injustice to migrants, representing them as a risk and burden to health systems and society, and instead highlight positive contributions of migration in these countries.
Previous research3,39 has identified several factors that might contribute to improved health outcomes in migrants compared with host populations, and non-migrating peers in countries of origin. Data supporting a healthy migrant hypothesis suggest that healthier migrants might be more likely to choose to migrate, benefit from decisions to migrate, or successfully migrate, and that health is thus a predictor of migration.40,41
They’re still trying to tackle it through ILR changes
On PB many here want to attack pensions growth with the triple lock being reformed or removed
They’re right too
But, muh, Reform 😂
Like Farage he doesn’t like scrutiny just softball interviews
Anyway I’m talking about tackling the benefits bill growth.
Once upon a time working men in particular simply dropped dead or suffered a short sharp illness. There are significant costs associated with dying - but that only happens once for each of us and it doesn’t matter whether it’s at 60 or 80. The difference now is the years leading up to that.
Depending on whether you use DFLE, HLE those years have increased by 33%-60% over the last 30 years.
Explore the data at https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads?folder=Standard Projections&group=Most used
Some of the nonsense on social media about "Londonistan" is just that. Yes, I live in an area where the White British are a minority but so what? Everyone is trying to get by, make their way or just plain survive and the unifying force of aspirational capitalism is powerful.
Khan has won three times against weak Conservative opponents - Goldsmith, Bailey and Hall sound like a firm of solicitors but in truth none of them really laid a glove on him though I'm told Hall won the 2024 election before the votes were actually counted (what a laugh).
The Mayor of London is a politically symbolic and high profile post but the Boroughs have most of the powerand it may get more difficult for Khan if Labour loses control of a number next week but overall it's a profile post and Khan plays it in a more understated way than Boris did before him but both were and are well suited to the role.
Khan COULD have been a Cabinet Minister now and might even be a possible PM but he's found a comfortable niche and will probably win again next time.
People are forever misusing UC migration stats and disability spending increases to drive this narrative. Indeed non-disability spending has fallen sharply.
That could change though - the Greens have proposed a double-lock on benefits…
Negative net migration could be the result of Brit’s fleeing Ange’s reign of terror…
This is a UK phenomenon (possibly USA too) not seen in other developed countries, so unlikely to be covid itself, though possibly relating to UK covid response.
On benefits, having signed up to the Triple Lock (apparently), Farage has come out as might be expected against "the scroungers". Now, he thinks there's an £18 billion pot of gold at the end of that rainbow - we'll see.
This notion there are millions of people who could work but don't because of "mild anxiety" really needs to be challenged. Let's define "mild anxiety" - what does it mean? How many people are really signed off because of that? Is there a regular review process? How will the Government barge their way into that - a Reform person in every consultation who can overturn a GP's findings - seriously?
The distinction here is between those who want to work but cannot and those who don't want to work. Most would agree we should help the former as much as possible to get back into work - I'm looking at Carers and challenging higher levels of unemployment among those with physical and mental disabilities.
The latter group, those who don't want to work and simply choose to live off benefits - well, we have choices and consequences. IF you turn off the tap, leave them with nothing - one of three things will happen - they'll find work, possibly in the black economy, they'll resort to crime or they'll die of starvation.
The other side of this is the availability of work and the willingness and flexibility of employers to take on people who may not be well suited to the world of work (primarily those with disabilities) or those who can only work certain hours because of other commitments (again carers). We need to encourage and if necessaey coerce employers to be more willing to take on staff for whom extra support is needed.
We DO have an issue with police comms in this country. Its incredibly difficult, but all too often information is withheld that some will take as evidence of 'protecting' certain communities etc. The scandal we cannot discuss relies heavily on the idea of certain crimes and communities not being pursued for 'reasons'. In the case in Epsom why ask for witnesses, putting information out about a rape, for 2 hours, by four 'men'? Do the CCTV legwork first. Check what can be checked.
I recall the case of 'Nick' who made allegations that were so laughably bad that his ex-wife would have stopped the whole case in minutes if the police had bothered to talk to her. Sometimes doing the obvious things helps. Instead the police gave the impression that a rape HAD occurred by four men that they then gave no details about. And into that vacuum was poured every nasty racist poster on social media.
I’ve criticised Reform for signing up to the triple lock here.
None of this will have an impact on our health outcomes or system because it is not Afghan women and girls who are arriving here as migrants, whether via the boats or otherwise. It is Afghan men.
To call what is happening in Afghanistan medieval is an insult to the Middle Ages.
In any case health, education and infrastructure is a government competence so why not get politicians to do their jobs rather than pass the responsibility to businesses?
I also suggest that the woman at the heart of this needs consequences.
It's also incredibly shortsighted and foolish.
Afghan refugees who have come to the UK through specific schemes are gender balanced, but those who have come into the UK and then claimed asylum are mainly men (about 8:1): see figure 8 of https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2024-Briefing-Afghan-asylum-seekers-and-refugees-in-the-UK.pdf So there are a lot of Afghan immigrants in the UK who are female.