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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP in second place 3 percent behind LAB in ICM Euro Elect

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited April 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP in second place 3 percent behind LAB in ICM Euro Elections poll for the Sunday Telegraph

The first of tonight’s very interesting crop of polls is out and, as can be seen, UKIP is only 3% behind LAB in the ICM online Euro elections poll.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited April 2014
    Lib Dems in negative poll rating shocker?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Downfall on BBC4 or is it IDS on workfare?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PL70PhVeQ9I
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR4sq6qy5IU

    almost as good as the Gordon Brown Downall Glasgow East By Election.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Seems like the Euro's will be a bloody night for the coalition - One last opportunity to kick the government before things get serious for the general election.

    "There are several more very newsworthy polls expected in the next few hours."

    Sounds interesting. Do we know what's coming up?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    F1: pre-race piece is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/china-pre-race.html

    The race is fairly early, kicking off at 8am.

    It's highly likely to be dry. Should be another good race. Doubt it'll live up to Bahrain, but then nobody saw that coming.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    The Euros are shaping up to be one of the most exciting elections since 2010 GE. Will UKIP come through and finally deliver a 1st place in something? Will the Tories defy doubters and actually do really well as they are threatening to do in a good minority of the polls? Will the LDs be wiped out entirely?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    edited April 2014
    On-topic: isn't that two polls that has it Lab, UKIP, Con? Starting to look like a pattern.

    All depends on how UKIP do. If they beat Labour, that's terribly for Miliband. If they beat the Conservatives, that's bad for Cameron.

    Lib Dems may not be enthused by their current polling.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Quincel, they'll be very interesting, but still utterly eclipsed by the referendum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Damian Lyons Lowe ‏@DamianSurvation 4m

    This weekend (Sun-Mon) we will publish a new Westminster seat poll, a Scottish poll and some new work on English devolution.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    We are seeing the new pylons being erected between Beauly and Denny so all the extra electricity being created in the Highlands and Islands can be shipped down to provide you folks in Englandshire with energy. I have to admit the new pylons are nowhere near as ugly and intrusive as I thought they would be. The Highlands have been covered with windfarms by the SNP government in Edinburgh who regularly overturn planning refusals by Highland Council. I have to say one gets used to them and while they may not be the most efficient source of energy or the least expensive, if it is a choice between blackouts (like the one the entire Highlands suffered on Wednesday night) and windmills, I'd build then everywhere.

    The problem with the forestation of the 1970s and 1980s was that everyone planted those ghastly Norwegian fir trees because they grow quickly. I actually thought Caithness (the county of my ancestors) looked better covered in trees than just miles of bleak peat bogs but I would have preferred the forests to be Scots pine and Silver birch. Incidentally the tax relief under Schedule A was abolished by Margaret Thatcher and that was what brought the entire mass planting to a halt. Now most of those forests are being felled and as with those round my little place, replaced with broadleaf native species.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Morris_Dancer said:

    On-topic: isn't that two polls that has it Lab, UKIP, Con? Starting to look like a pattern.

    All depends on how UKIP do. If they beat Labour, that's terribly for Miliband. If they beat the Conservatives, that's bad for Cameron.

    Lib Dems may not be enthused by their current polling.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Quincel, they'll be very interesting, but still utterly eclipsed by the referendum.

    True in terms of impact for sure, in terms of unpredictability I still prefer the Euros for now (not that the IndyRef isn't starting to shape up very interestingly).

    The pattern is definitely true for now, but if UKIP really are only a couple of points behind with the main campaign to do I fancy their chances myself.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Others are down from 26% to 13%.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Wonder why UKIP have done so much better in an online poll than a real contact poll? Could it be all the Kippers are spending their time on PB.com to while away their retirement.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Good poll for UKIP - if they become more common, they may generate further momentum (and I'd think their GE share is rising too). The impact of a possible outright win is interesting - bad for all the other parties, but I suspect Labour would worry less, because it makes a UKIP->Con collapse in 2015 less plausible. On the other hand, it may be a Ron Paul thing, with online voters much more likely to go UKIP than the general population for some reason.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Suspect we are not looking at crossover this weekend. OGH would have inserted some hyperbole had that been the case.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Easterross said:

    Wonder why UKIP have done so much better in an online poll than a real contact poll? Could it be all the Kippers are spending their time on PB.com to while away their retirement.

    They always do , compare the differences between ComRes online and telephone polls . It is a pretty consistent difference of around 5%
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    There's a big ICM IndyREf poll coming up
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Mike noted the other day that there is very little betting on the Euros. One reason may be that people don't see the markets up. I've just looked for them on Betfair (nothing) and Ladbrokes - did a search and found a European elections entry, clicked on it and it said page not found. Where are the markets? (Not that I'm sure what I'd predict, except I'm sure the Tories will be third.)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a big ICM IndyREf poll coming up

    YES in the lead? :O
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a big ICM IndyREf poll coming up

    10pm release, right?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Easterross said:

    Wonder why UKIP have done so much better in an online poll than a real contact poll? Could it be all the Kippers are spending their time on PB.com to while away their retirement.

    Perhaps the phone pollsters haven't been able to adapt to the move from landlines>mobile phones. The directory delivered by BT these days is a lot smaller than it used to be.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    dr_spyn said:



    almost as good as the Gordon Brown Downall Glasgow East By Election.

    I think the Gordon Brown ones work much better as the paranoid delusional bunker mentality is much more plausible than when it's applied to others.....

  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    People have been predicting UKIP to win the Euros since last may, if they don't won't the media portray it as a major defeat for them?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    anotherDave said:

    Easterross said:

    Wonder why UKIP have done so much better in an online poll than a real contact poll? Could it be all the Kippers are spending their time on PB.com to while away their retirement.

    Perhaps the phone pollsters haven't been able to adapt to the move from landlines>mobile phones. The directory delivered by BT these days is a lot smaller than it used to be.

    Phone polling is a lot more sophisticated than that. They don't call numbers as in the directory and these days they call mobiles.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Survation have a very interesting constituency poll out for MoS at 1030
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    dodrade said:

    People have been predicting UKIP to win the Euros since last may, if they don't won't the media portray it as a major defeat for them?

    A good second would be OK. It doesn't matter what the media say if the voters don't agree. If UKIP supporters think it's a good result, it is.

    They got 16.6% in 2009, and 22% at last year's locals.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    dodrade said:

    People have been predicting UKIP to win the Euros since last may, if they don't won't the media portray it as a major defeat for them?

    Probably - they are riding as high as they ever have in GE polling, the LDs are nowhere , Labour are on course for a GE win but not spectacularly so, and Cameron has zero control over his own party; it will not be hard to argue that if UKIP cannot win in those circumstances, when can they?

    In truth it would hardly be a disaster to remain second, but it would be a disappointment, I don't think that can be denied.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited April 2014
    Awkward.....

    "Exclusive - PM hired bankrupt crony to run £60bn quango"

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/457624862396514304/photo/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Do we have the indyref poll ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Dave, that's a good point. The 'expenses scandal' the Times reported appears to have had no impact whatsoever on UKIP/Farage.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Late to the show as always. On the pervious thread, why wasn't 'Do you support fracking' asked? While the NIMBYism may be higher for fracking, does that automatically translate into people not supporting it when it isn't in their backyard.

    (apols if this was discussed at great length already!)
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    anotherDave said:

    Easterross said:

    Wonder why UKIP have done so much better in an online poll than a real contact poll? Could it be all the Kippers are spending their time on PB.com to while away their retirement.

    Perhaps the phone pollsters haven't been able to adapt to the move from landlines>mobile phones. The directory delivered by BT these days is a lot smaller than it used to be.

    Many people like me in rural locations must have a landline because we don't have mobile reception.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Pulpstar said:

    Do we have the indyref poll ?

    Two: OGH RE-tweeted:
    @MSmithsonPB There are two polls on #indyref out tomorrow morning, one by ICM for Scotland on Sunday, another in @Sunday_Post
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    Survation have a very interesting constituency poll out for MoS at 1030

    Maybe it's Sheffield Hallam...

    Other guesses would be Folkestone or Thanet with Farage standing. We had one of those a couple of weeks ago.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Survation have a very interesting constituency poll out for MoS at 1030

    Maybe it's Sheffield Hallam...

    Other guesses would be Folkestone or Thanet with Farage standing. We had one of those a couple of weeks ago.
    Didn't the Grimsby MP just announce he won't be standing in 2015?

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    AndyJS said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Survation have a very interesting constituency poll out for MoS at 1030

    Maybe it's Sheffield Hallam...

    Other guesses would be Folkestone or Thanet with Farage standing. We had one of those a couple of weeks ago.
    I may be about to embarrass myself, but I suspect a poll of Sheffield Hallam wouldn't be particularly interesting.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    ICM and Survation both have IndyRef polls I believe
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    CarlottaVance said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do we have the indyref poll ?

    Two: OGH RE-tweeted:
    @MSmithsonPB There are two polls on #indyref out tomorrow morning, one by ICM for Scotland on Sunday, another in @Sunday_Post
    I hope they aren't interesting in the sense Yes is ahead...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    anotherDave said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Survation have a very interesting constituency poll out for MoS at 1030

    Maybe it's Sheffield Hallam...

    Other guesses would be Folkestone or Thanet with Farage standing. We had one of those a couple of weeks ago.
    Didn't the Grimsby MP just announce he won't be standing in 2015?

    Yes, Austin Mitchell. Would be interesting with Victoria Ayling as UKIP candidate; she stood for the Tories last time.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Easterross said:

    anotherDave said:

    Easterross said:

    Wonder why UKIP have done so much better in an online poll than a real contact poll? Could it be all the Kippers are spending their time on PB.com to while away their retirement.

    Perhaps the phone pollsters haven't been able to adapt to the move from landlines>mobile phones. The directory delivered by BT these days is a lot smaller than it used to be.

    Many people like me in rural locations must have a landline because we don't have mobile reception.
    Sure, but UKIP's two big demographics are older voters, and poor voters. Perhaps poor pay-as-you-go mobile phone voters are not being picked up in ICM's sampling?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    RobD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do we have the indyref poll ?

    Two: OGH RE-tweeted:
    @MSmithsonPB There are two polls on #indyref out tomorrow morning, one by ICM for Scotland on Sunday, another in @Sunday_Post
    I hope they aren't interesting in the sense Yes is ahead...
    Indy ref is one of those series of polls where i yearn for some nice, boring stability to at least halt the No advance and calm my nerves. Perhaps a closing of the gap or crossover, as disastrous as that would be, might spurn certain political parties into action, but I doubt it.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    LDs being 5th, behind "Others", is no longer news.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    It's looking like a nailed on certainty that Labour will go to 2015 with higher taxes policies.

    Just today we have had cap gain tax on main home and increased NI to fund NHL floated.

    Here's hoping the UK electorate are not completely insane as labour seem to think they are.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    saddo said:

    It's looking like a nailed on certainty that Labour will go to 2015 with higher taxes policies.

    Just today we have had cap gain tax on main home and increased NI to fund NHL floated.

    Here's hoping the UK electorate are not completely insane as labour seem to think they are.

    Labour rely on people not realising that when "someone else" pays higher taxes, it's everyone that ultimately pay the price.

    Sadly, it works.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Fairly interesting Easter Saturday night @ PB, but don't think anything will ever top Easter 2009 when Guido broke the McBride story, LOL!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited April 2014
    This is an awesome poll for UKIP

    Damian Lyons Lowe ‏@DamianSurvation 25s

    NEW: Eastleigh remains a 3-Way Marginal as UKIP top a published constituency poll for the first time ever: http://survation.com/?p=5199

    UKIP 4/1 with Ladbrokes to take Eastleigh
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Telegraph write up of ICM EU Parliament poll.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10776305/European-elections-Conservatives-face-poll-humiliation-as-one-in-three-Tory-voters-defect-to-Ukip.html
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is an awesome poll for UKIP

    Damian Lyons Lowe ‏@DamianSurvation 25s

    NEW: Eastleigh remains a 3-Way Marginal as UKIP top a published constituency poll for the first time ever: http://survation.com/?p=5199

    UKIP 4/1 with Ladbrokes to take Eastleigh

    Holy smokes! Not just still a marginal but now with UKIP leading! That will cause a stir tomorrow. Alan Bown is a PR genius with these polls.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    edited April 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is an awesome poll for UKIP

    Damian Lyons Lowe ‏@DamianSurvation 25s

    NEW: Eastleigh remains a 3-Way Marginal as UKIP top a published constituency poll for the first time ever: http://survation.com/?p=5199

    UKIP 4/1 with Ladbrokes to take Eastleigh

    Conservatives up too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New Thread
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