A look ahead to the midterms – politicalbetting.com
A look ahead to the midterms – politicalbetting.com
Please tell me what the prospects are for the Democrats in the upcoming midterms this November, bearing in mind their recent successes, but also Trump’s ability to interfere with the election. I’d like you to do it in two modes.
1
Comments
I have a vague memory of my guesses being far more optimistic for the Democrats than most here. There's an off-chance Trump's lunacy might make my ill-informed forecasts more accurate than they should be.
But if oil really does hit $200 a barrel it’s going to be total chaos anyway and all predictions are off.
Which is a shame as the Senate is the far more important chamber being the one needed for eg appointments. Trump having 2 more years of a compliant Senate is concerning.
Dems 1.84
Reps 2.06
Democrats hot favourites to win the House:
Dems 1.17
Reps 6
If Trump has succeeded by then in seriously damaging the US economy, if the Iran war is still staggering on and if his collapse into imbecility continues on his current trend then this might be possible but it still looks unlikely to me. I think best case scenario is 50:50 in the Senate with the VP deciding vote giving the GOP the edge.
There are -give or take- about five Republican Senate seats in play. The Democrats need to win four (and not lose any of their own) to capture the Senate.
Two should be relatively easy pickups.
Ms Collins in Maine hasn't had to run in a midterm with an unpopular Republican in the White House since... well... never. She's been a Senator since 1996 (30 years!). The only time she's been up for election at a midtern with a Republican President was way back in 2002, when George W Bush was riding high on the back of 9/11. She is now the second most unpopular Senator in the country with her constituents. It's a Blue State. It's the midterms. She's toast. Probably by double digits. (Oh yes, and the Democrats chose Janet Mills, the popular ex-Governor.)
North Carolina. Open seat. Only narrowly won by the Republicans in 2024. Very strong, moderate, Democratic candidate. Narrow but relatively comfortable win - 52:47.
Then it gets harder.
But I think they pickup Alaska. Mary Peltola won the House of Representatives seat at the trough of Biden midterm unpopularity. Dan Sullivan is the third most unpopular Senator in the US with only 39% of his constituents giving him a positive rating. Peltola is leading in basically all the polls. Unless the economy suddenly revives then Dan Sullivan is more likely than not to be an ex-Senator. I'd make the Dems the slight favorites here.
Now there are two possibles. (And two wildcard.)
Ohio. It's Sherrod Brown. I'm not a fan. But it's an open seat (it's JD Vance's seat). And Brown won in 2018 at the first Trump midterms. And Trump is less popular now than then. Ohio is also getting massacred by high oil prices. Polymarket makes him favorite. Will he win? It's an uphill battle, but if the economy worsens, then he's in with a good shot.
Texas. Yes it always flatters to decieve. But the Dems have chosen a moderate Pastor, while the Republicans look like they're going with Ken Paxton. Also: you know what group the Republicans are getting massacred by? Hispanics. And you know what Texas is full of? Hispanics. It's far from impossible that the Dems win Texas.
(An aside: the Republicans gerrymandering in Texas might well lose them seats.)
Here are the wildcards
Iowa. If Jodi Ernst had run again, I think the Dems could have won. They probably won't. But It could be closer than people expect.
Florida. Holy shit did you see the special election results last week? If Mar-al-Largo is falling, then so is Florida. I mean the midterms will be better for Trump, right? Right?
Georgia will be harder... but Ossoff is a very strong candidate.
Yes, that seems a likely possible outcome. I'm a little more optimistic on the Senate changing control, but Trump/MAGA corrupting the process mitigates against.
A straw in the wind on the other side is that No Kings rellies maintained or somewhat increased their attendance at 8 million plus, which is almost 2.5% of the population - which is a lot.
I don't think I recall a set of demonstrations of that scale in the UK in my lifetime, which would need 1.75 million now or 1.5 million in 2000 - the closest on independent estimates being Stop the War in 2003.
So why bother? All of the people voting against them are terrorists and traitors, the people organising these elections are antifa, the coup can’t be allowed to take place.
Plenty of options available. State of Emergency thanks to war, state of emergency thanks to civil unrest, send in ICE and the good ol boys with rifles to shoot anyone who looks black gay Latino or liberal, force all elections to be federal - or any combination of the above you fancy.
Not that things being insane have ever stopped the Trumpster fire, of course.
That is somewhat stuffed by the mega unpopularity of MAGA- ICE is too small to provide a threatening presence in all the necessary places.
I have lost count of the number of high profile races which the Republicans have lost in my lifetime, because their primary voters decided that the candidate who could win was not loony enough, and that they needed the looniest of the loons.
I mean how do the Republicans throw away Senate seats in places like Indiana, Arkansas, Alabama? Well, they left no stone unturned in finding candidates who were too batshit, even for the electorate in such States.
It was only 15 minutes.
Does anyone still want a Trump-like revolution in the UK? Or a DOGE initiative following the Elon Musk method by the "Muskrats"? There's a fair amount of made up BS in it, but she was there to fluff the USA Christian Right.
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUFQ4Z8cbF4
Will anyone be paying attention to, or attending) CPAC UK 2026?
It’s not however just a one way suppression tool against the Dems . Married women are also effected because of their last name change which will disproportionately effect the GOP in that area.
The act was always designed to allow Trump to scream steal if it wasn’t passed .
It’s probably likely that the SCOTUS will restrict mail ballots that arrive after election day but postmarked before from being counted.
On the face of it this doesn’t seem that controversial as in the UK the cut off is election day but this really is a Trojan horse because the GOP are likely to come back again for more restrictions.
As reported in the previous thread. By @Brixian59 Any ground incursion into Iran will not see the Israelis participating.
They really mugged Trump off with this war.
Hopefully the democrats will win the Senate and the House.
In spite of the conspiracists I expect the elections to go ahead and be pretty free.
Gerrymandering goes on by both sides too. Dems currently doing it in Virginia. But they’re the good guys and raising it triggers people for some reason.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Virginia_redistricting_amendment#:~:text=If voters approve the referendum,out of 11 congressional districts.
Cut speed limits, mandate wfh where possible, introduce carpool lanes all over the place...
Tories and Reform will oppose on reflex and it will show he's the serious politician thinking about national interest.
And it’s not the Dems trying to suppress votes by putting up obstacles to people voting . Nice try at some false equivalence but the Dems have no option but to respond to the GOP gerrymandering. Or do you expect them to be all moral whilst the other side is totally corrupt .
If the Democrats win the House and the Senate, could they bring forward a bill saying that any individual involved in the Capitol Riots is ineligible to serve under the Fourteenth Amendment? (They should have done this in 2021, of course, but it doesn't seem to have occurred to them that the situation they faced of fraud and corruption in the Republicans would mean it was needed.)
Yes, I know Trump would veto, but it would look bad for him.
The News Agents were at CPAC 2026. It Includes part of a Liz Truss speech.
I realise, that said, that it would be performative. I was just wondering what the impact might be.
Nigel and Kemi have it sewn up. If the Government issued new North Sea drilling licences for 2030 there would be no fuel crisis now. It is a compelling argument supported by Donald Trump, GB News, the Telegraph, the Mail, the Express and Nick Ferrari.
FPT
Look, I know he won the Trojan war but surely there is a better name for a defensive system, if only this name wasn't synonomous with weakness despite overall strength.
Greece has approved a €3 billion defense program to build “Achilles Shield,” a multi-layered air defense system designed to counter missiles and drones. The project is expected to include advanced Israeli technology, with Israeli firms likely playing a central role.
https://x.com/israelnewspulse/status/2037986001457406316
Although it will be another good reason to turf them out.
‘ During WWII, an Ace was a pilot credited with five confirmed enemy aircraft strikes in combat.
For the first time, as part of defensive operations in the Middle East, multiple gunners from @RoyalAirForce Regiment have hit this historic benchmark.’
https://x.com/defencehq/status/2038193304915837331?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
Those nasty people made them do it.
😝
Even if it takes them to Helen back, they'll always have Paris.
Demand destruction.
We drove back and forth to the midlands this weekend.
Didn’t go as fast as normal and got back with far more in the tank.
Diesel prices are up 45% from $3.87 to $5.60
The all time high price for diesel is $6.11 in July 2022 - it's going to hit that very soon..
https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=AK
It’s brilliant.
At 70mph steady I can get there and back and to Michaelwoid on next journey that's approx 570 miles
I am Ed Milliband and claim my £5.
They should be certified
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Combat_System
On current polls it certainly looks like the Democrats will retake the House. The Senate will be close and the Democrats need 4 gains to take control, potentially they could come in North Carolina, Ohio and what could be the real shocks of the night, Alaska and Texas, all races where at least some of the recent polls have put the Democratic candidate for the currently GOP held US Senate seat in the state ahead
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections
They're the best, you know.
He has all the details of this goddam ballroom at his fingertips. The Iranain defence capabilities of the Straits of Hormuz? Not so much...
However as Starmer is in power neither will happen as he is sticking to his line offensive actions in Iran are not authorised under international law
But the whole suggestion is a non-starter for many other reasons.
In fact the end result is always going to be paying Iran for access through the Straits so we may as well get on and start paying it.
https://poets.org/poem/shield-achilles
The new licenses aside the intimation by certain players that the drilling has already stopped due a decade of Labour Net Zero is reaching the voter and this will be even more stark when the pumps run dry. It is extremely clever, if disingenuous politics, particularly from Kemi. She is way better at politics than Starmer.
His point is that Farage and Badenoch don't tell the truth, they just lie to the inherently thick
They are currently trying to out do each other in the race to the sewers
But things being bollocks has never stopped them being effective political messages.
Sleepers in our midst revenge lone rangers martyrs
Palin said that you can see Russia from parts of Alaska - which is true even if she was referring to some godforsaken uninhabited islands
I say that as someone who reluctantly backed Harris over Trump in 2024 as she was more supportive of Ukraine getting military supplies to push back the Russians mainly. Plus Trump's expansion of tariffs beyond those Biden had imposed on China to most of the rest of the world would be damaging to global trade and while I backed immigration control I thought his deportations went a bit too far. I am not opposed to the US SC now letting states decide on abortion and Trump's appointments got the SC verdict on that
1. The surprisingly rapid collapse of the Iraqi regime in 2003
2. The coverage of mass protests suggesting the Iranian people would happily topple their regime if given the chance
Number 2 may yet happen, but that reckons without a highly determined Junta-style government. For the military elite, just as for Syria’s Alawites during the civil war, keeping power is existential.
Where the Greek military is involved the general rule is “follow the money”. And Germany has historically been more morally flexible than the post FCPA/Bribery Act US and UK.
More importantly, you suggest what we should do "if Trump fully commits to remove the evil regime in Iran", but Trump has not fully committed to removing the Iranian regime. So, what should we do given that?
Handing money to oil companies who avoid and evade tax.
Approaching summer we are closer to higher levels of solar and wind renewable are quickly reducing heating...
Thats where quick reinvestment wins can be gleaned faster than drilling and cheaper.
More wind, more solar, specifically more DIY solar that can generate we've in a few hours of winter sun.
Pardons as used in the US are a complete abuse. At least in the UK we use them very sparingly
HYFUD steps up and says Hell Yes
The real issue here is we should not be attacking Iran or supporting the US and Israel in attacking them. They are not and were not a threat to ourselves, Europe or the US. They did not attack us. They did not attack the US or Israel. They were attacked and we should not be supporting or condoning the aggressors.
https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/iran-executes-2-gay-men-sodomy-charges-rights-group-says-rcna14540
Plus
https://fortune.com/2026/03/21/iran-executions-19-year-old-star-wrestler-regime-crackdown-dissent-us-war/