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If we apply UNS to the ICM poll for the Guardian, they will end up with zero MEPs. Now this election is conducted in regions under the d’Hondt method so a straight UNS calculation may not be apt.
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Maybe it was my max allowed bet that smashed this market into shape? #ladygodiva
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 35m
Bookies have tightened the odds from 5/1 to 3/1 that the Libdems will get zero seats at the European Elections.
Q1 Will Clegg get turfed out in double quick time?
Q2 Will Clegg's successor call time on the coalition?
Q3 Will the Tories lose a confidence motion?
Q4 Will there be an early General Election?
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2013/05/mystic-hitchens-is-right-again.html
Right, I have to love you and leave you, I have a date with Emma Stone.
Real lib dems or imaginary american/swiss lib dems?
Ladbrokes appear to be nearer Even money (1.97)
Yep, that looks like fair value ...... personally I wouldn't back the zero option.
Q2. Depends on who if there is one. A caretaker would keep things much as they are to ensure a smooth contest after the election. A break would be symbolic so it wouldn't be any of the more right wing continuity Clegg candidates. If it's a social democrat maybe but he'd still be turfing out a lot of lib dems from their comfortable junior ministerial jobs and perks so it's not as simple as it first appears.
Q3. Won't be one. All the parties are geared up for May with their resources and strategy being carefully planned and allocated as it is. There certainly wouldn't be any controversial legislation but most legislation has virtually ground to a halt now anyway.
Q4. No. Same reason as above. No party would benefit. None of them will be prepared.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/04/poll-by-tns-bmrb-sheds-some-light-on-the-undecideds/
"It is clearly a mistake to think of an undifferentiated group of undecided who are clearly set apart from their fellow citizens who have made up their minds. Rather voters lie at various points on a spectrum of indecision. "
Like the graffiti: "I used to think I was indecisive. Now I'm not so sure."
I remember Mike K lumping on a 2014 GE ! - Told him Paddy would be happy to take his cash...
(I did change my posting name, but only because the password wouldn't work on my ipad, and only from sam to isam.. I admit I AM SAM!)
What happened to the 'PB Legend' Tim we hear so much about - or is he actually SeanT??
That said, I shan't be topping up at 3-1: the right probability is probably 30%, maybe 35%.
Have £28.57 @5/2 2 seats
and £22.22 @7/2 3 or more seats
Hey Presto!
£50.79@1.97 2 or more seats
Personally, I would be very surprised if the Lib Dems win more than two seats. SE is likely but SW isn't nailed on given the relatively few seats available, nor is London for the reasons I've already mentioned. Zero is certainly possible.
To be honest, when people post under false names, or come back as old poster under new names without acknowledging it, it makes it all a bit confusing.
Always proud to say what I think using (nearly) my own name!
Why should the Euros make any difference? Whether good bad or indifferent for either partner?
"Liberal MP Sir Cyril Smith was part of a high-level paedophile ring operating at Westminster in the 1970s, a Labour MP has claimed.
Simon Danzcuk alleges in a new book Sir Cyril used his influence to escape prosecution for sexually abusing boys."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27047442
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27023992
I wouldn't be put off backing 1.97 2+ just because one bet is certain to lose.. makes no difference, its still the same as backing over 1.5 at a better price
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-27043974
By the way, anyone who thinks that the idea of any of these islands eventually going independent is fanciful should consider the fact that the Faroes have already once voted for independence (in 1946) and it remains a live subject for debate. Shetland must be a lot more viable as an independent state than the Faroes.
Sir Alex Ferguson is to sell a part of his wine collection, which is expected to fetch at least £3m bit.ly/1eyDN6E
Well that's the Labour Party's election fund taken care of then.
Anyway best of luck with 3+ bet, swimming against the tide can be profitable in betting.
Anyhow, I'm sure he's having a lovely time breeding cats with Plato.
I'll get my coat.
'The Orkney and Shetland MP said government from Edinburgh had been "just as bad and just as dangerous" for the islands "as it is from London."'
London rule 'bad' and 'dangerous'? Okeedokee.
"Just 36% of the 2,076 people questioned in the BuzzFeed/YouGov poll correctly guessed that Nigel Farage went to private school, despite him happily talking about his time at London’s prestigious Dulwich College on many previous occasions.
This falls even lower among people who say they will vote UKIP at the next general election: just 31% of potential UKIP voters believe Farage was privately educated, with 38% saying he went to a grammar school and 25% believing he went to a comprehensive.
An impressive 77% of UKIP supporters say Farage is in touch with normal people.
This compares to just 37% of likely Conservative voters who feel David Cameron understands the concerns of a typical member of the public."
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/nigel-farage-has-successfully-convinced-the-public-that-hes
I have to say, the physical process of writing blog entries, even when you have source material directly at hand and you don't need to spend too much time constructing an argument, takes a lot more time than you'd imagine. I have no idea how our host manages to put two posts a day up all year round.
Because of the nature of the d'Hondt system, you can reasonably assume that you need a little bit less than 1/number of seats. If the LibDems get 7 or 8%, for example, in the South East region, then they will almost certainly get a seat. In 2009, they got 14% and two seats. If we assume that LibDem support has roughly halved from that point (which is possibly a bit pessimistic, given that is pre-Cleggasm), then they should get one.
But this is a probability, not a certainty. A lot depends on how others to. It's possible that the Libs could get 7% and lose out. It's possible they could get just 6% (in which case they would probably not get a seat). However, the probability that the Libs get a seat is probably 70%. Hence, my view that 5-1 is a good price for zero seats, but 3-1 probably isn't.
My very rough spreadsheet, not taking into account others beyond the big 4 and the Nats - so perhaps missing the Green effect - has the LDs getting the 9th seat out of 10 in SE, the 8th seat out of 8 in London and the "7th" seat out of 6 in the SW (and the 11th out of 8 in the NW).
But that's based on a LD share of only 8% or thereabouts.
I think the Lib Dems would struggle to be elected even in a 10 MEP region with just 7% - that'd imply a 30% wastage. It is possible but they'd need to beat the Greens, there'd need to be a sizable 'Other' vote and the numbers for the main three would still have to fall right. Something like 27/27/25/7/6.5/7.5 would work. If they finish fifth behind the Greens, it is still just mathematically possible but either the other vote shares would have to fall perfectly or there'd need to be a very large Others, and I can't see where that'd come from.
In reality, the Lib Dems ought to be looking to a minimum of 8% in the SE if they want to be reasonably confident of winning a seat. Anything below that is dicing with wipeout.
www.examiner.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/colne-valley-labour-candidate-binni-6996747
'Independance `Better Together` campaign needs to be much more postive
Well said Charles Kennedy
At last, a politician comes out and say`s that the No to independence campaign needs to be more positive. Charles Kennedy the ex Lib Dem leader was speaking at Glasgow University when he called for the positive attitude within the campaign group.
We in Scottish BNP have lamented on a number of occasions over the continued scare stories that seem to back fire each time from the No camp.
From dockyards closing to Standard Life possibly moving, it’s been negative Nellie throughout the campaign by the Better Together group. We witnessed just the other week a selected companies day after day with scare stories over a possible Yes vote for independence.
It became fairly apparent to any person that it was organised publicity to encourage the voting of No. Yet the response from a number of people has been that it`s big business and rich people telling us how to vote.
Charles Kennedy is a clever man, he sits and ponders before saying something and his feelings that a negative approach from the Better Together campaign group would not resonate with voters.'
http://archive.today/Mgrrt
If we assume a LibDem vote share nationally of 7%, then one would expect 8-9% in the SE. I think you need (probably) to see the LibDems shrink to 6% or thereabouts to lose their final SE MEP.
Which is probably better than a one-in-five shot, but it's certainly not a one-in-three shot.
British National Party 4.4%
English Democrats 2.2%
Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship" 1.5%
No2EU - Yes to Democracy 0.9%
Libertas 0.7%
Socialist Labour Party 0.7%
United Kingdom First 0.7%
Jury Team 0.6%
The Peace Party 0.4%
The Roman Party 0.2%
0.2% for the Roman Party...
What are their policies?
What did the Roman Party ever do for us?
As a rough-and-ready calculator, the share a party needs to win one seat is (100 - Vn) / (S + (Pw - 1)/2 ), where Vn is the votes for parties not winning a seat, S is the number of seats, and Pw is the number of parties winning a seat. The Greens failing to win one would bump up the wastage significantly. If they do, I reckon the Lib Dems would need something close to 8% if the minor parties gain around 5%; if not, 7% could easily be enough.
After Rennard and then Clegg's miscalculation regarding the debates,the Mail are leading on the Cyril Smith child abuse story.If the mud sticks on the current LibDems this could be far more damaging in public perception-comparatively Rennard is the proverbial Mother Teresa.
A few weeks ago it was 3,last week it was 2.Today it's 1.5.
If the Cyril Smith story really start to stick,it's zero.Laddies have spotted the trend so have 1 as the 7-4 gives them plenty of cover.
Over the years I have learned never to under-estimate the resilience of the Libs but I think this is the the worst state I have ever seen them in.With a further hammering in the local elections to come what will be left in the wreckage?
The only party who's manifesto is detailed in the party name?
I have a theory that on Judgement Day all the Christians will be cast out of heaven for being ridiculously needy.
Abandoning Liberalism for the charms of the SDP was practical in so far as it created a powerful protest party. Now they govern, cannot be used as a protest and are no longer the Liberal Party of old that had solid pockets of support. UKIP are the new Alliance, the Lib Dems are finished as a twenty seat party by 2020. IN my opinion!!
Yougov/ST SW/SE/London
Yougov/Sun SW/SE/London/Scotland
Populus SE/London/SW/NW
TNS/BMRB Scotland/SW/SE/London
ICM SE/London
Survation NW/W Midlands/E Midlands
Clearly Survation had very odd regional sub samples
Shows nothing about whether private education is stigmatised etc.
http://www.tnsglobal.com/sites/default/files/whitepaper/TNSUK_SOM_DataTables2014Apr16.pdf
On the referendum question - no lead:
M: +8
F: +16
By 2011 vote:
Con: +75
Lab: +43
LibD: +38
SNP: -37
What's more, the average person has a far dimmer view of funding political parties than you. Indeed when the various possible models of party funding were getting kicked around (again) a year or so ago the principle of state funding being used to support political parties was roundly dismissed as being too unpopular with the public to put forward.
Yes 22 %
No 53 %
also
Only segment with a YES lead is D/E ...
Stunning.
He must have receipts for the 'banks of computers' whirring away in Bognor.
If they did, they wouldn't vote for, or say they were going to vote for, UKIP.
The polling on Farage tells you what the average persons view of him is.
Also, pandas.
Here you go, have a read of this
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100267778/if-nigel-farages-expenses-bother-you-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
Ed Balls was on BBC Radio 4’s World At One today, showing just how thin, defensive and selective Labour’s economic message is. Here’s the transcript:
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/04/16/defensive-much/
Does Eck have a problem with old female pandas ?
The polling on Farage tells you that people don't know he went to private school, so he's not a useful study of whether there's a stigma attached to it or not (on a general note his leadership response ratings show he's better known than he was but still lower than the other 3).
Certain to Vote:
Yes: 84
No: 83
Falkirk, Ashcroft, Farage, Rennard.
Now every party has it's own PBgasm.
No lead:
AB: +28
C1: +19
C2: +10
DE: -4
You're consistently telling us that Farage spends the allowances solely on the cause, yet are unable to provide any proof to back that claim up.
Blind faith.
This explains an awful lot.