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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are we really only five months away from Dave’s resignation
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are we really only five months away from Dave’s resignation?
David Cameron will resign if he loses Scotland. A Prime Minister who allows the break-up of the United Kingdom cannot suffer such a statement of no confidence and continue in office.
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Compare and Contrast:
The Ceredigion section of the EU 2009 result :
1/ Plaid Cymru 6,725
2/ Liberal Democrats 3,642
3/ Conservative 2,869
4/ UKIP 1,755
5/ Green 1,481
6/ Labour 1,329
General Election 2010: Ceredigion
Liberal Democrat Mark Williams 19,139
Plaid Cymru Penri James 10,815
Conservative Luke Evetts 4,421
Labour Richard Boudier 2,210
UKIP Elwyn Williams 977
Green Leila Kiersch 696
Council Election 2012
Plaid:19
Independents:15
LibDems:7
Labour:1
If he did resign of course, what would be the position of his Deputy, and indeed other senior Cabinet members?
I would also have thought that Hammond and Osborne would have ruled themselves out in these particular circumstances by their very open support for the Union, whereas Hague and May have been much quieter.
I do wish London centric Westminster types would realise the more they warn Scots that voting YES will pull the house down, even if true, e.g. Philip Hammond's comment on defence jobs yesterday, the more the Scots will vote YES in a "fcuk you" response.
Perhaps the Telegraph is keen to see Scotland leave the UK realising full well that if Scots thought DC would resign in the event of a YES vote, they would flock into the YES lobby just to get rid of him.
Now Mike .... Pot .. Kettle .. Black ..
Tsk ..
Compared to other parts of UK gets (more than/fair share/less than fair share) of government spending:
England: 8 / 27 / 40
Scotland: 52 / 18 / 4
Now that Scotland has its own parliament, it should pay for its services out of taxes collected in Scotland (agree, net): +73
Now that Scotland has its own parliament, Scottish MPs should not be allowed to vote in the HoC on laws that only affect England: net agree: +75
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n7j4epfe7j/University of Cardiff_England sample Results 121128.pdf
That said, there's always the right price for a bet. May feels far too short. The others are probably about right. Some of those bets might also last through 2015GE to Cameron's replacement in a 2nd coalition between 2016-2018, if you think that will happen. And they could always be traded out during the contest itself, of course.
It looks like I am in a small minority on here, but I see the break-up of the UK as a pretty big deal that will not only affect all of us who live here in myriad tangible and intangible ways, but will also have profound implications internationally. We only have a few months until we find out who is right.
I recall a few year back OGH's advertising was imploring me to join the Royal Marines !! .... Well, I know I'm the Jacobite Action Man of PB but I fear it was one of the severest cases of hope over expectation.
I think the mood of the rest of the UK at the moment is half-resigned to Scotland leaving anyway and it wouldn't be held against a PM who hadn't been directly involved and who couldn't in all reality become directly involved.
There would be a great deal more resentment towards Cameron were he to backpedal on the independence negotiations. The No side have been very clear about what the consequences of a Yes vote would be, and England *has* been listening to that. It's not Cameron's fault if Salmond and, possibly, the Scottish electorate choose to believe them. It will be his fault if he doesn't stand firm.
Scotsman has a TNS poll which shows Yes losing by less but still by loads.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-crimson-tide.html
Of course the PM would have to resign. It would be an utterly ignominious defeat for the UK prime minister, whose first task is to keep the country together.
Oz Republicans down 5 points at least !!
The Cardiff Unuversity poll shows the English already think Scotland gets more than its fair share of government spending (52% vs 8% for England) - what our nationalist friends forget, is that after September 18th, Scots' opinions don't matter much - the other 92% of the UK's though do.
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-24910397
The survey found 84 per cent of Yes voters and 83 per cent of No voters will turn out on the day
Must be Laddy's website playing up again.
I reckon if Eck accepts a debate offer from Nigel, the YES vote share will rocket as Nigel lectures the Scots and tells us what a bunch of ungrateful spongers we are.
I know why Labour are only too happy for that backlash to happen and to keep the shrieking of doom up to ridiculous levels, so the real question is why have the tories been so stupid not to realise the implications for a unionist PM only too happy to join in with the fearmongering until now?
*chortle*
Small movement to YES but all MoE.
............................................................................
@RobD
Very insightful.
25 hours 25 minutes 25 seconds
"Tony Blair strikes back at Nick Clegg over Chilcot report into Iraq war" http://ift.tt/1eG46Ct
What on earth is Blair upset about? It could hardly be clearer that Clegg and the coalition are in no hurry whatsoever to speed up Chilcott. Clegg complaining about delays is farcical. He's supposedly the Deputy PM so maybe doing something about the delays instead of whining might be more appropriate.
Perhaps we should bring forward Scottish Independence to May 2015 (the 2016 date is to suit Scots' convenience) and crack on with it?
25 hours 23 minutes 23 seconds
Ukip's latest defence of Farage: We are as much part of the EU gravy train as Nick Clegg
twiitter.com/RogerHelmerMEP/status/456305918339059712 …
Novel. Bring the toxic Clegg into things and see how the public reacts. Didn't the reverse used to be Clegg's 'master strategy'?
One thing Clegg does appear to have right; our intervention in Iraq was the worst Forign Policy decision since Suez, and almost certainly one of the worst ever. And it's not done a lot for the people of Iraq, either!
"Nick Clegg abandoned his leadership responsibilities over the Lord Rennard affair" http://dailym.ai/RmYsAn via @MailOnline <11 women ignored
Trying to incompetently intervene in Syria certainly didn't seem to bother Clegg too much so I somehow doubt the public thinks he is quite an anti-Iraq as Kennedy was.
Colin McAllister @McAllister1973 10h
@acarmichaelmp starts off BBC indy debate by disowning - sort of - Robertson's forces of darkness nonsense. #bbcindyref
*chortle*
Such vitriol, such passion. It must have been a hell of a relationship while it lasted.
Compare and contrast with Eck's ridiculous promise about Royal Navy shipbuilding yesterday.
The survey found support for the royals was at its highest among Australians aged 18-24, 60 percent of whom thought Australia should keep its royal head of state, and only 28 percent supporting a transition to a republican system of government.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2605667/Support-republic-slips-lowest-level-popularity-royals.html
Leader of small foreign neighbour decides instead!
Main domestic item this morning is the issuing of confirmation to parents on primary school allocation. Doesn't apply to Scotland.
Yesterday/Monday it was all about extending GP hours to evenings and weekends. Doesn't apply to Scotland.
HS2 Doesn't apply to Scotland.
Talk about changes to student tuition fees. Doesn't apply to Scotland
Recent changes to prescription charges. Doesn't apply to Scotland
Planned changes to planning laws. Doesn't apply to Scotland
Almost all sports coverage. Completely ignores Scotland.
Most of what all cabinet ministers and opposition spokesmen are interviewed on doesn't apply to Scotland.
Realistically beyond the royal family, armed forces and taxation we Scots now share virtually nothing with England, Wales and N Ireland. On a day to day basis the breakup of UK plc will make no difference to the lives of 90+% of Scots.
The YES would be a narrow one and so we are talking about 4% of the UK population voting for it. The real guilty party is surely the one that pushed devolution in the first place - they opened up a Pandora's Box for purely self-interested reasons without thinking through where it might lead.
John. @JohnWilson1012 21m
.@Number10gov David Cameron: Stop MPs policing their own expenses http://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/number10gov-david-cameron-stop-mps-policing-their-own-expenses
Maybe the PB tories can start one for Farage and EU allowances?
Not going to happen.
It predicts a near repeat of 2010 on seats and ends with the vainglorious forecast: Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
We don't need to wait 25 hours for it, thankfully.
But the fact remains that PM of UK presides over dissolution of UK = should go.
My view? He should submit his resignation to the House (not HMQ) - or hold a token vote of no-confidence - and it should be rejected unanimously.
Harry and Chelsea should take over. Her in vertigo inducing heels and far too short skirts. Him dressed in a towel and smoking a spliff.
Much more fun.
Those who would wish to replace the current representative of the Germano-Scottish royal house currently called Windsor with a Jacobite alternative seek only to replace Saxe-Coburg with Wittelsbach and a representative from the Bavarian branch of the family, Prince Franz, recognised as Francis II of Great Britain within Jacobite circles.
Edit: but yes, I do agree with the main point of your email, and add that the BBC haven't really caught up ... one hopes they made the relative scopes clear.
Vanilla gets more troublesome. Last night it kept signing me out (I didn't think my excellent floccinaucinihilipilification post had gone through, but fortunately it did) and the first time I tried signing in it said 'bad gateway'.
On-topic: I disagree with this absolutely. Why should Cameron go? It's Labour's stupid habit of buggering up the unwritten British constitution with lopsided, unfair and intended-to-be self-serving Scottish devolution which has led to this.
If Scotland vote Yes, that would sadden me. But it wouldn't be a loss due to a defeat in war, but the free choice of a people voting democratically.
Mother-of-two Sinead Clarkson, 36, has been claiming benefits for the last 20 years and currently receives £1,200 a month in state handouts.
Ms Clarkson, from Rochdale, Greater Manchester, has now admitted she encouraged her 19-year-old daughter Melissa to have a baby so she can do the same.
She claimed: 'I am better off on benefits. I refuse to work for a pittance and struggle.'
Ms Clarkson said she was delighted when her oldest daughter Melissa fell pregnant six months ago as she will get an extra £400 a month when her baby is born in July.
Melissa will also receive keys to a two-bedroom council house.
Ms Clarkson's younger daughter Amie, 12, is also showing signs of wanting to follow in her sister's footsteps and have a child.
Ms Clarkson said: 'I don't have any qualifications so it is easier to claim money than persuade an employer to give me a job.
'I told Melissa to work the system and have a baby so she could claim more benefits, get a house of her own and have a better life. I don't want her to work for peanuts in a low-pay job.'
Ms Clarkson claims living on benefits brings a stress-free life.
She said: 'Being on benefits suits me. I don't have the stress of working like some of my friends. I spend a lot of time cooking and cleaning, or I will watch TV or have friends round.'
While Ms Clarkson acknowledges taxpayers may be angered by her comments, she insists it is the benefit system at fault for making it more financially worthwhile not to work.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2605677/Mother-two-never-worked-encouraged-daughter-pregnant-council-house-easy-life-benefits.html#ixzz2z2662r2w
Michael Gove and Philip Hammond would vote for Britain to leave the EU
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22500121
Any post Cameron leadership contest will be dominated by Europe if the kippers don't crash back down to their 2010 3.1% levels by 2015. Something that looks extraordinarily unlikely given the polling.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
I am not sure about that. Obviously, much will stay the same, but Scotland will either have a different currency or it will have less influence over the fiscal and economic policies supporting the one that it currently uses. The knock-on effects of either scenario will certainly have implications for the day to day lives of Scots.
LOL
If Scots vote for indy then it is a profound change in the nature of their country and in several generations they will be a proud, independent country (yes and monetarily and fiscally) and looking to interact with the international community, including rUK for whom they might have an abiding affection and special relationship, on their own terms.
So yes in the near term it will have profound implications for the day to day lives of Scots but in the medium term not so much to not at all (and of course we all know what happens in the long term/run).
Xavier Bertrand, the former (French) employment minister, said it is time to abandon the Franco-German axis that has been the guiding principle of French foreign and economic policy for half a century. “It’s important but it shouldn’t be the alpha and omega of France’s vision,” he said.
“How can we pursue an energy policy if the interests of France and Germany are so different. It is better to work with the English on this subject, and the same goes for European defence. Let us recognise that the alignment with Germany is stopping us pushing for another ECB policy, one that favours growth and jobs,” he said.
This refrain was picked up in an astonishing column in Le Figaro by former editor Philippe Villin last Friday in which he called for a Latin front led by France and Italy to blow up the euro.
In an open letter to Italian leader Matteo Renzi – just 17 years old at the time of Maastricht, and therefore uncompromised and free of EMU’s Original Sin – he warns the young leader that there is no hope of lifting Italy out of its low-growth debt-trap without a “return to the lira.”
Even if the euro fell to 1:1 against the dollar it still would not be enough to save Italy – says Mr Villin – since the intra-EMU gulf with Germany would remain.
He tells Mr Renzi to undertake a tour of southern capitals to forge a Latin alliance, then march on Berlin to inform Chancellor Angela Merkel that monetary union has become untenable. He should warn her that the end has come unless Germany does more than the bare minimum to keep EMU afloat.
The young Italian’s actions would set off market alarm, causing a precipitous drop in the euro and a bond crisis. This would be deliberate, if dangerous. It would force Germany to face up the choice it has so far evaded: accept a genuine fiscal/transfer union, or leave EMU. Mr Villin obviously prefers the latter. (So does the Bundesbank in my view.) “By precipitating this drama, you would save Europe and the Europeans”, he said.
Three books have recently appeared arguing that the euro must be broken up in order to clear the way for genuine economic recovery, or even to save the European Project.
1. François Heisbourg, “La Fin du Rêve Européen”
2. Coralie Delaume, “Europe Les Etats désunis”
3. Steve Ohana, “Désobéir pour sauver l'Europe”
A further book by statesman Jean-Pierre Chevènement — “1914-2014: L’Europe sortie de l’Histoire?” – makes a fascinating case the EU has lost its way because it wrongly blamed “nationalism” for causing the two world wars. It has tried to build a superstate edifice by denying the nation-state soul of the European peoples.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027046/france-is-the-new-cauldron-of-eurosceptic-revolution/
Bring Chelsey back. She was GREAT.
*chortle*
If I wanted to be exposed to the Mail's misanthropic obsessions, I'd read it.
Sounds more like the sort of thing a rabid spanish nationalist who hates the SNP would say.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 2h
Clegg facing probe over £110,000-a-year adviser: http://bit.ly/1imxpP2
Why are you so rude to Jack? Lot's of people make predications on here. Yes the whole bodily-function affectation is a little tedious and childish, but surely it doesn't deserve the ire that it creates in you?
Perhaps there's a small part of you that fears he is right?