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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are we reaching a tipping point for Nick Clegg’s leadership?
One of the constants in this parliament is each May, in the local elections, the Lib Dems lose a significant number of councillors and the Lib Dems insouciance to it all. With other parties, it may have triggered speculation about the Leader/a Leadership election.
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One does wonder if Clegg will experience a political decline as precipitous as that of Crassus at Carrhae.
Well that narrows it down, - who other the Danny Alexander (possibly) amongst senior LDs is not perceived as being to the left of Clegg ?
D'you reckon UKIP will win any seats?
Enough already. Jeez an AV/STV thread is looking attractive right now.
Nick Clegg is the leader of a party which was home of NOTA and pandered to this constituency by proposing a set of wholly unworkable not to say politically naive yet public opinionally savvy policies.
And then they only went and got elected as many Lab-ers found themselves sick to death of Lab especially warmonger Blair and bonkers Brown and voted LD.
And, so they ended up as junior (note: JUNIOR) member of a Con-LD coalition as they had indicated they would, given that the Cons were the largest party at GE2010.
They then fought and won and fought and lost on several of their own policies some of which, unfortunately for them, were totemic. They also managed to enforce their own red lines on some Cons policies but generally did a not too bad job of being that junior coalition member.
And above all, and for the first time in years and years, they were a party of government. And they have been excoriated by their supporters ever since. Supporters who wilfully or idiotically or a combination of both, refuse to see the reality in front of them (cf. Tory backbenchers).
Did I miss anything?
Yesterday's London YouGov showed no change in Conservative support since the 2010 general election.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n4ojuqo0a6/YG-Archive-140411-Eveningstandard-London.pdf
The last effort by the Times to get UKIP into trouble with the European parliamentary authorities has just collapsed ignominiously.
Early last month the Lib Dem MEP Edward McMillan-Scott put in a complaint about UKIP’s use of allowances after a series of reports by Times journalists Rachel Sylvester and Alice Thomson.
But yesterday the inquiry was thrown out by a European Parliament bureau meeting that found there was no matter requiring further investigation following Mr McMillan-Scott’s complaint.
A UKIP spokesman said: “You would struggle to believe that they once called the Times the Thunderer. These days it is much more often the Blunderer.”
Its not just that a change in LD leader/strategy might poach statist voters from Labour, they might also repel conservative-leaning voters from current-LD.
But the evidence for this is scant, currently.
He kept an open mind so long
That everything fell out
And true and false
And right and wrong
Were scrambled into doubt
* as I recall, the poem was called 'An Ode to a Liberal Lord'
It's hardly new but it is amazing just how long it takes for some people to grasp the obvious.
Perhaps the most hilarious recent example of just how out of touch Clegg and his ostrich faction of incompetent spinners are was when they actually tried to blame Clegg's excerable debate performances on Farage "telling the voters what they wanted to hear".
LOL
Priceless stuff.
Almost as amusing as this.
James Ross @fki01 2h
"Clegg insisted that he wants to lead the Lib Dems until at least 2020". Got to admire the optimism. In the use of the plural in "Lib Dems".
Which brings us to the crux of the matter. As funny as that is Clegg is still pretty clearly daring any leadership contenders to speak out with that kind of ostrich thinking after his calamitous debate stupidity. The one thing Clegg has going for him is that he's probably right and most of the lib dem leadership candidates simply don't have the balls or the stomach to challenge him. Huhne would not hesitate but Huhne is done in front line politics.
The lib dem leadership hopefuls are all David Miliband clutching their yellow banana terrified to make a move lest it backfire on them or they rapidly end up a toxic coalition sh*t magnet like Clegg is.
So Clegg can stay in his bubble and comfortably ignore any whispers or grumbling. There needs to be a serious and concerted effort to get rid of Clegg for it to happen. Vague noises of unhappiness just aren't going to cut it. Unless somebody with some real clout breaks ranks and flat out says Clegg must go it's going to be ostrich thinking and hope for the best from Clegg all the way to election day in 2015.
I can't deny it, whenever I see the words "ostrich faction" I burst out laughing. Keep fighting the good fight!
I agree we need to build more housing. But the idea that we concrete over every unspoilt view in the South East of England, so that we can continue to import millions more people, is absurd. To be honest, your fundamental premise that our goal should be minimizing market distortions, rather than maximising the well-being of British citizens, is fatally flawed.
And B/ Go and replace him with who? The Blairites didn't have the balls to topple Brown for the same reason. No clear replacement and nobody wiling to challenge him head on. Like I said the lib dems leadership candidates are David Miliband clutching their yellow banana terrified to make a move in case it backfires on them.
That is my goal.
I believe that in the long-run, that benefits more people - whether British or otherwise - than putting up barriers based solely on the accident of where they happened to be born.
If he hangs on in North Norfolk (he will)
This year is the last round of local elections to face the post 2010 election cull. After those losses are attributed to Mr Clegg, a new leader could hope to point to improved local election results in 2015, and blame any Westminster losses on Mr Clegg.
http://www.ukip.org/who_are_the_times_journalists_trying_so_desperately_to_undermine_ukip
What, like Nigel Farage?
Shame that story was a dud isn't it? The bloke the Times quoted has written them a letter complaining of being misquoted, I believe?
Oh well
That's the difference, and that's what Cam gets stick for
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilham_Castle
Attacking wealth is a very strange line for a party lead by those of privilege and good fortune.
You've missed the point
The attack is on the similarity between Cameron and his people employed to do a job on Farage
@hugorifkind: .@UKIP If it helps, I'm the guy who wrote that your boss "has a face that men who work in Turkish takeaways must try to recreate for a bet".
@Dannythefink: @hugorifkind @UKIP Mine is best I think, though Alice's "the wife of the nephew of" is funniest.
Twitter
Hey @UKIP! Deeply flattered to have made your list of enemies, but would you mind making my entry a little longer? http://www.ukip.org/who_are_the_times_journalists_trying_so_desperately_to_undermine_ukip …
Daniel Finkelstein @Dannythefink 2m
@hugorifkind @UKIP Mine is best I think, though Alice's "the wife of the nephew of" is funniest.
Tim Montgomerie @TimMontgomerie 7m
@oflynndirector there's a lot of class war in that post - where btw did Mr Farage go to school?
Want to bet on the debate appearance or still running scared?
This sort of thing must be stamped out.
Someone at UKIP has messed up with this.
and then...
“Mr Kenber and Mr Mostrous,
Re: Nigel Farage and office costs
"I am extremely concerned that in your report you have distorted my responses to your questions regarding the Lyminster office costs.
"On the front page you quote me as stating that the costs were £3000 per year. This is grossly incorrect. I told you that the previous manager had tied the office into some supply contracts and as a result the monthly costs were some £2000. I told you several times that I eventually reduced the costs to £700 per month. When I went to school we were taught the times tables and that £700 times 12 equals £8400 (which is not too far removed from Mr Farage’s £1000 per month) so where on earth did you come up with a figure of £3000?
"At no time did I say that “electricity, heating, and business rates at the office totalled less than £250 a month”. I told you that I could not remember the individual amounts as it was over four years ago but they would have been in the region of £200 each.
"Later, you then contradict yourselves by quoting me as saying that the costs were £700 per month - which is correct. You asked me a number of times about the £700/month figure which I confirmed several times; again I have to ask how does £700 per month equate to £3000 per year? I should also point out that our conversations were witnessed.
"To the best of knowledge and belief I was completely honest in my answers and resent the fact that those answers have been completely distorted. I did warn you that there is a small minority who are 'mischief makers' – one in particular who would go to any lengths to destroy Mr Farage’s reputation.
"I expect you to publish corrections as outlined above.
David Samuel-Camps BA (Hons) Dip. PA"
http://www.ukip.org/times_story_falls_apart_as_key_source_reveals_his_responses_were_distorted_by_the_paper
Yes, as can be seen by the now less than subtle positioning of some Libdem Leader hopefuls recently. The question is, will there be a panicked move to push Clegg out early, or will those that wield the power within the party simple wait and let him fall on his sword after the next GE?
Care to give us evidence of that link?
It's a rather pathetic attack, especially coming from a UKIP that harks back to grammar schools, the old school tie and train liveries.
As someone who was privately educated, Would I have made UKIP hit list?
Are you one of a group of people with an incredibly similar background that have been employed by David Cameron? If the answer is no, then you wouldn't have been targeted
Did you see Farage on SKY?
Apparently his tiny office has banks of computers & communication equipment and manages to consume £3,000 a year in electricity,triple the average household bill.
They won't get to steal a march, because any other serious contender will also be included if it turns into a real contest, and the electorate is small enough that they will have a good view on the candidates.
And there is a risk that they will be blamed for bad results - either generally, or because of the "disruption" of a leadership contest
So why not prepare the ground, set out the intellectual underpinning for your differentiated vision, be loyal enough but not too loyal and bide your time?
"I can predict one thing with certainty about l'affaire Farage: OLAF, the EU's anti-fraud office, will not find against the Ukip leader. This is because the sum in question is an allowance, not a claim. It is handed over unconditionally, with no requirement for receipts. Much of the row of the past 24 hours is based on a misunderstanding of this point
When one of my British colleagues found himself with a slight surplus, and asked how to return it, he was told it couldn't be done. "
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100267778/if-nigel-farages-expenses-bother-you-vote-to-leave-the-eu/
Luckily the sage of our times Dan Hodges has tabled the truth of the issue
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 2m
Ukip's response to the Time's report on Nigel Farage is exactly how the BNP used to respond to scrutiny of Griffin
As I wrote yesterday, we are probably witnessing another decline of a liberal party; historically, it is quite common.
Any movement to the left is not workable, a lot of the social democrats have left the party and been replaced by younger and far more liberal minded members. I do think a lib-lab coalition might prove to be awkward and not as compatible as current con-lib. Clegg has pretty much cleared out all attachments to social democracy within the party.
The Liberal Democrats are essentially a centre right party under Clegg; Tory-lite, if you will. The leadership refer to the Social Liberal Forum as the 'socialist liberal forum' and Tim Farron is certainly *not* popular with senior figures within the party, nor is Vince - seen as too arrogant. Clegg's inner circle do not want the party moving leftwards post-Nick, believe it would be a disaster.
Ed Davey and Jo Swinson are seen as possible unity candidates. Jenny Willott is the dark horse and Jeremy Browne has no hope in hell winning over the grassroots.
As for the internals of the party: Federal Executive, Party President, Cabinet members, grassroots are all heavily divided; the splits are more idealogical and not just along right/left lines.
Like the Whigs and Liberal Party, LD's are probably going to split post 2015.
"Marine Le Pen’s Front National leads the latest IFOP poll for the European elections next month at 24pc.
Her platform calls for immediate steps to ditch the euro ... and to hold a referendum on withdrawal from the EU."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027046/france-is-the-new-cauldron-of-eurosceptic-revolution/
Can't they both lose?
And I stand by what I said: it is a pathetic attack line by UKIP.
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/04/from-duck-islands-to-tracey-island-nigel-farage-expenses-car-crash/
What's a Dip. P.A.? I assume it's a Diploma in something or other?
Nigel Farage is filmed claiming he could earn around £250,000 through 'games you could play'. In footage thought to be from 1999 or 2000, Farage says he could earn as much as a Goldman Sachs banker through using the expenses system and employing his wife as a secretary. Farage criticises the MEP travel expense system while holding a wedge of cash
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2014/mar/13/ukip-nigel-farage-could-earn-like-goldman-sachs-banker-video
If not, ok
Since you are so keen on publishing David Samuel-Camps's letter to the Times, are you interested in publishing the Times's response?
Or do you need someone else to do it for you?
IIRC, there's a bit of elitism in it, there's also a Diploma in being an Personal Assistant to an executive.
So who's running up those costs?
Annabelle Fuller works out of the London press office, and one assumes that Farage must be in Europe quite a lot of the time. Does Mrs Farage work in the Littlehampton outpost for her £20K pa, in front of a battery of permanently running hair dryers and irons?
From: “Kenber, Billy”
Date: 15 April 2014 10:14:05 BST
To: David Samuel-Camps
Cc: Alexi Mostrous, Nigel Farage
Subject: Re: Your report
Hi David,
The difference between the two figures lies in the way Ukip MEP’s break down their transparency reports.
This includes various categories – of which the one of relevance to rent is “office management and running costs” which covers rent, utilities, insurance, business rates and cleaning. In his transparency reports Farage claims to have spent £15,500 a year solely on this category since July 2009. This does not include office equipment, phone bills and stationery which fall under “communication costs” and “stationery, periodicals, subscriptions”.
As you say, the total monthly cost for all office expenditure was £700 (down from £2,000 when you managed to cancel various locked-in contracts for things like unnecessary amounts of printer ink) which I asked you to break down into its constituent parts – something we went through twice to ensure accuracy.
You said that utilities and insurance amounted to less than £100 a month and that council tax/business rates were £150 (I looked it up and it was £149 a month for the current financial year 2013). Hence the figure of £250 a month, which is £3,000 a year. The remaining £450 a month falls under the two other categories outlined above.
Bognor Regis is the nearest well-known town for readers who are less familiar with the West Sussex coast.
Best wishes,
Billy
At least Scrapbook think’s it’s supposed to be comedy, it’s hard to tell with Lembit.
He’s taken on hosting duties on News At When, which airs on a recently launched Freesat channel called London Broadcasting Partners. The show’s described as “Britain’s first satirical pro-Iranian politics show” – and, somewhat chillingly, as “Iran…with a smile.”
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/04/lembit-opik-now-hosts-a-pro-iranian-propaganda-comedy-tv-show/
Something I can quite get my head around.
It's not my job to defend Cleggie, obviously, any more than it's my job to defend Nigel. I am standing against candidates from both their parties next month. But I'd rather fight that election on the basis of policy than on fabricated outrage. There are examples of real malfeasance in the EU: monstrous boondoggles in the agriculture, regional and foreign aid budgets. There are plenty of cases of real sleaze, too, in the European Parliament, which I've written about many times over the past 15 years. Yet they attract little attention.
When has the Times reported on these genuine, and much more expensive, cases of wasted taxpayer money at the EU level? Never. Because it doesn't have a beef to pick with the EU in the way it has one with UKIP, so there's a huge double standard in its reporting.