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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs slump to just 6 pc in Euros survey from pollster that traditionally gives them the highest shares
For me ICM IS the gold standard and I regard its monthly survey for the Guardian as the most important polling event of the month. ICM is also the firm that traditionally reports the best shares for the Lib Dems.
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I've posted this before but I think a key issue in Euros polling is how the question is asked - in particular if people asked GE voting intention first and then Euros afterwards it is a subconscious prompt to give a different answer.
So is ICM asking the Euros question in a different way to other pollsters?
The "correct" way to poll the Euros is one question - ie how will you vote in the Euros - with no mention at all of GE.
The Wiki polling graph was updated yesterday and the Lab line is now showing a pretty solid, consistent downtrend.
The latest Con move is also down but only very marginally - Con is essentially flat over the last 6 months.
But that Lab line gives quite a bit of encouragement for Con.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
twitter.com/TommyReckless/status/455714471961317376/photo/1
They've 'floated' leadership names before to the press to try to nullify them as a threat and paint them as untrustworthy and disloyal. Farron has seen plenty of this as has Vince. Now it would seem that anyone who could be a possible threat on the right is getting 'the treatment' as a desperate Clegg tries to gloss over his own extraordinary failure over Farage and keep himself safe.
Problem is if you cry wolf long enough then sooner or later what becomes the story isn't WHO wants to replace Clegg but WHY he hasn't he been replaced already?
The more leadership speculation there is then the less people will care about 'loyalty' or shifting the blame away from a self-evidently toxic Clegg.
You know who didn't make a calamitous fool of themselves with a Farage 'master strategy'? Every single one of those leadership replacement names including Browne and Ed Davey.
(though to be fair since wee Danny is in the quad and so close to Clegg it's inconceivable he didn't give it the green light and think it was a great idea, as usual)
There is surely a relationship between the kind of people who volunteer to become respondents and social class? My feeling is that working class Sun readers aren't represented in the polls we see and analyse, and that may be why UKIP always seem to out poll the polls
I think that PB suffers from the same problem at times. Who can honestly say they read The Sun more than once a month? I only read it when I go to the café, and the slant they put on political news is quite surprising.
Today for instance, the Editorial was criticising the amount of immigration, and pointed the reader to pages 12-13, whose headline was along the lines of how something like 85% of babies born in London were to non British parents, and the effect on the NHS as a result. It reads like a UKIP manifesto at times, and as one of the biggest selling papers, one that working class people read in cafes everyday, it informs a lot of non polled opinions
May happen - but not certain.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls
1 yr later GE : 3.1%
That's the riddle - a repeat of this or not in 2015.
Or in 2011 when they got the AV result spot on.
Which brings us to the clincher about all the leadership speculation and the one ray of hope Clegg has.
None of the lib dem leadership hopefuls are likely have the balls to mount a direct leadership attack on Clegg. They are all David Miliband clutching a yellow banana terrified to make an overt move lest it backfire on them.
With one exception.
Huhne. He would not hesitate. But Huhne is done as far as front line politics is concerned. Certainly for a good few years at least.
The leadership hopefuls are also all justifiably scared they they will very quickly become a coalition sh*t magnet like Clegg is.
So Clegg still has the upper hand as long as there is nobody with any bottle keen to challenge him. Whispers can still be ignored and Clegg and his ostrich faction are utterly superb at ignoring things, if clearly hopeless at everything else.
Decent poll for Labour with what is usually the most Tory-friendly pollster.
The range of quotes for UKIP is ridiculous really isn't it? They're on 11% with one firm and 20% with another in Westminster VI and 20% -30% in the Euros
The problem about replacing Clegg is the same as before - a successor will simply inherit the disaster unless he breaks up the coalition. Aat this point they probably have to gallop into the valley of death, and then have a fresh face in June 2015. But a Farron rebellion involving an early end to the coalition would be a possible gamble.
Anyone see that C4 News focus group feature on the Red Liberals I posted earlier? Required viewing for any punter/Lib supporter. They look absolutely finished.
*paging Mark Senior*
That said, the yellow peril have to be pleased to still be on 12 (unch) in the ICM Westminster VI poll...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls
Labour want the Libs to soldier on into oblivion.
Time to cut, and run.
The Lib Dems are still all of 1% ahead of UKIP for Westminster but are facing utter humiliation in the Euros. I really did not believe they could face wipe out there but it is now looking distinctly possible. As the party of "in" it really indicates how at least the English are trending on the EU. This may strengthen Cameron's hand in the negotiations.
Labour+tory under 70%. Our politics are getting distinctly messy.
I agree with Rupert Murdoch that Labour will win in 2015, if the Tories don't do some form of deal with UKIP. I cannot see Cameron allowing his party to do any deal with Farage.
Lib dem leadership contests are every bit as 'messy' and vicious as labour and the tories have.
You only have to look at the Fate of Ming as well as the Clegg and Huhne battle to realise that.
UKIP 15%, 0 seats
LD 14%, 35 seats
The Conservatives stand a much better chance of overtaking a Labour score of 37 with a 5 point deficit than a Labour score of 42 with a 5 point deficit. But Labour are running down the clock.
Jeremy Browne's Liberal leadership bid spells disaster for Ed Miliband.
Tory polling slump spells disaster for Ed Miliband.
Some pollsters saw that Cleggasm was all light and no heat.
Pollsters don't have to be homogeneous, each pollster has their own methodology, and it is never wise to compare different elections, particularly those with different expected turnouts.
Take a look at Anthony Wells analysis at house effects of each pollster.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7744
Shane @shanedgj 22m
Nick Clegg aims to stay on as Lib Dem leader through next parliament http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/14/nick-clegg-lib-dem-leader-2020 …
Deputy PM wants to remain party leader until at least 2020, no matter what happens in May's European elections
LOL
*chortle*
I'm willing to take on suggestions.
Perhaps a thread on electoral reform will keep everyone happy?
The perfect PB thread.
Con 29 Lab 17 LD 20 UKIP 10 Green 11BNP 5
Im not criticising any poller btw, just saying that I think the UKIP rise has naused things for all of them, and the wide spread of scores/constant under estimates means we should all tread carefully, or heaven forbid, try and "think outside the box"
eeuurgh what a wanky thing to say!
As I said, I am sure not many on here ever pick up a copy, and its not available free online to read just the political bits, but it is where a large proportion of working class males get their political news and views shaped...
...and it reads like a UKIP manifesto when it comes to the EU and immigration
These people are what Goodwin and Ford are calling the "left behind"... I reckon polls/political anoraks don't factor their (illogical)?) views into their forecasts and opinions
1. Scotland is going to vote overwhelmingly to stay part of the union.
2. The Conservatives can't do a deal with UKIP without:
a) losing some gay/metropolitan/business elite voters to the LibDems and Labour
b) permanently splitting the right
But other than that, spot on.
Actual votes were:-
Con 28 Lab 15.7 LD 13.7 UKIP 16.5 Green 8.6, BNP 6.2
So forecasts were C slightly high, Lab higher, LD badly higher, UKIP well under and Green higher.
MikeK:............. ICM; the LEAD STANDARD
Like so many other party leaders, Clegg has excelled at the machinations required to become leader and hold on to that power, while in almost every other aspect of leadership he has been shown to be woefully inadequate and usually incompetent.
You can see - in real time, so to speak - how this works by looking at the YouGov pre- and post- adjustment figures.
All pollsters tend to down-weight people who have not voted in the past, on the basis that (historically) people who did not vote last time are less likely to vote this time. I think, because UKIP is tapping into previously under-represented voters, who were less likely to vote in 2010, that this is where the under-weighting of UKIP comes in. Effectively, many current UKIP voters were disenfranchised in 2010, and therefore didn't vote. If they vote in 2015 (and I suspect many will), then the pollsters will have to revise their models. (Ironically, as these people will have actually voted in 2015, their stated voted intentions in 2020 will be taken more seriously, and therefore you probably won't need to change the model at this point, but that's another story.)
There is also an enthusiasm factor at play: I feel (rightly or wrongly) that UKIP voters are the most fired up, based upon this board at least! This means that in low-turnout elections, like the Euros or the Locals or by-elections, then they are likely to do rather better than their poll scores.
http://jamescrouchblog.wordpress.com/2014/03/17/local-elections-and-what-they-tell-us-about-the-next-general-election/
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch
However this time round will be particularly interesting, however, as London is electing. We shall see if the Libs do well in Twickenham, etc. I think the results for Kingston (Ed Davey) could be fascinating; the Labour Party is resurgent, and I think the Libs could do very badly. But we will see in about a month, of course.
What complicates things is that not every party stands in council elections, and there's a large number of independents that complicate things.
Then there's the turnout to consider which distorts things.
The question for Conservatives is how can they ban windfarms but allow fracking companies to have piping,which can easily fracture,as part of drilling,under your own home ,even legislating for the removal for your right to be consulted so if the foundations shake or you suffer methane poisoning you will not even know about the fracking?
Is this the position of the "greenest government ever"?
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/04/shale-gas-sorts-the-real-greens-from-the-watermelons.html
Are there any west country councils up for re-election? That seems to be one of the LDs stronger areas.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/region_south_west/
How low do the LDs have to go before they change. He's about the only one who can save their (and increasingly the Tories') bacon.
How overwhelmingly in your view? Ladbrokes have some big odds if one is prepared to bet on the Yes vote being < 40%.
London has become a citadel, sealed off from the rest of Britain
Ukip and Scottish nationalism are symptoms of public hostility to the overweening power and dominance of the capital
ICM appear to have a terrible methodology that is completely out of sync with the shift in politics. Even populus admitted they needed to completely change their weighting of Ukip.
Their model obviously includes those people who voted on mass for the LDs in 2010 which disproportionally up weight the LDs, making them look better than they are, and the fact that at the same time, Ukip have sudden come from nowhere.
History can no longer be enough to keep ICM as the gold standard.
Sorry but in this political situation, the online pollsters who prompt Ukip are the gold standard. Ukip HAS to be prompted now for an accurate result, and the LD result in 2010 was a blip, so the weighting has to be deemed inaccurate.
The fact that the Tories and Labour don't appear to be any different from pollster to pollster regardless of where Ukip are, is further proof. Weighting also relies on the fact that the people who havent voted in the past never will, Ukip are changing that.
I have the sneaking feeling that the Comres poll is spot on at the moment.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/5568015/NHS-being-put-under-immense-pressure-by-rising-immigration.html
There is no change in either the UKIP, or Tory numbers.
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In other news, have you looked at the wikipedia polling graph? Bizarrely it seem to show UKIP taking support from Labour!
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png/800px-UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Imperialist lies of course, but should there be a new purge of the faithful, just to be sure no saboteurs are at work in the party?
Lab 31 (+18)
UKIP 20 (+7)
Con 15 (-11)
LD 0 (-11)
Grn 1 (-1)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)
Labour would come first or joint first in seats in all regions...
Anyone believe it?
I've mentioned a few times on here about my own experiences at my local health centre,the place as taken to many new patients on,many from Eastern Europe.
" [Westminster] CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%
European voting intentions the figures are CON 25%, LAB 33%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 24%"
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8744
It would be like a proposal to paint all the country's postboxes blue. If there was a referendum, I'm guessing it would be a landslide in favour of keeping postboxes red simply because there doesn't seem any good reason to change it -- but even so, any party who made "we're the party of red post boxes!" their main pitch probably wouldn't get anywhere, because even if on balance people would want to keep them virtually noone would consider it a huge enough issue to base their vote on.
Con ....... 307 seats (down 1)
Labour .. 284 seats (up 1)
LibDems .. 31 seats (unchanged)
Other ...... 28 seats (unchanged)
London and SW England are probably a little less than 50/50 shots. And the others are extremely unlikely to be held.
I would guess 9% for my LibDem Euro share, and 16% for projected national from the locals.
But people saying Miller has been a big setback for Con don't appear to realise that last week was the 2nd best week for Con this year as far as the YouGov average Lab lead was concerned.
YouGov average Lab lead each week so far this year (oldest first):
6.8
5.4
6.0
4.6
5.0
6.2
6.0
5.2
6.4
5.0
4.6 (Budget week)
3.0
4.8
4.4 (Last week)
Big picture is:
- Average Lab lead has been below 5% for the last 4 weeks in a row.
- Average Lab lead was only below 5% in one of the previous 10 weeks
Miller has been a setback for Con but not a significant one. If Miller effect was, say, 0.5% then without it the lead would have been just under 4% - which would have been a very good week for Con. As it was it was still so so.
Definitely should be a thread on suspected Ukip underpolls. Interestingly Beast Nick Palmer backs you up saying that many Kippers are former non-voters.