Ed Davey is 7/1 to be next Lib Dem leader (with bet 365)
Ed Davey is a deluded and dangerous individual. If/when the lights go out people will be looking at him. With torches
While I agree that Greenery increases electricity prices, the Germans must be feeling very relieved that there focus on wind and solar has allowed them to cut gas usage 25% in the last three years.
We have our own gas, no need for us to worry on unstable supply.
But the likes of Davey and the rest of the lunatics don't want us to extract it.
Mr. Eagles, whilst that must be galling it's still good to be green.
I was a wreck yesterday afternoon because of the match.
I nearly made myself sick.
And I've got another month of this.
I just know Chelsea and or Norwich will ruin it for us.
Norwich will smash the scouse idiots by 4 or 5. My home city will protect the proud Leeds record of having won the top flight more recently than the chirpy twongaloids. Suarez will trip over his buck teeth and miss the World Cup, too
Can we assume that both you and the Telegraph are similarly outraged and disapproving of Nick Hurd, son of former Home Secretary Douglas, being an MP, or Bernard Jenkin, son of former cabinet minister Patrick, or Francis Maude, son of former cabinet minister Angus, or Robin Walker, son of former cabinet minister Peter, or David Prior, son of former cabinet minister Jim, or Ben Gummer, son of former cabinet minister John Selwyn ?
Perhaps following the same career as one of your parents is only a bad, evil thing when Labour people do it ?
Twas ever thus. When I was at a Welsh comprehensive in the 1980s all of the kids in the academic stream were children of lower middle or middle middle class parents.
You may be interested in this - now filtering down to the MSM. I'd say attitude/behaviour is a major driver behind poor performance re some aspects of PISA. That plus the fact that so little time is spent focussed on teaching/learning due to varied pointless admin, data-wrangling and managing constant change. It's certainly what comes up in all surveys re retention - that and workload (rather than pay etc).
Twas ever thus. When I was at a Welsh comprehensive in the 1980s all of the kids in the academic stream were children of lower middle or middle middle class parents.
Blimey how on earth did you know that then and even more remarkably, remember it now?
Yes but the state schools that supply that 50% are only available to people who live in the, usually very rich, catchment area of the existing grammar schools or 'state schools' that are 'non selective' on ability, but only select from a wealthy catchment area (the school that educates Michael Goves daughter is an example)
Council estate kids dont make up much of that 50%
One of the issues with the old grammar school system was that it heavily favoured the middle classes. I have a little bit of experience of this. Despite passing my 11+ and literally being the nearest kid to the school I did not get in originally - my place was taken by a child from a much wealthier background who lived further away. However, he ended up going private so I got in. The kid who lived second closest had to wait until the summer term before he got his place after another child who lived further away also went private.
I may be wrong, but in those local authorities where there are still grammar schools, the intake is largely middle class (ie, the number of kids on free school meals is low). If we are to introduce the grammar system again - which I think we should, in principle - then a way has to be developed to identify the children that would benefit from attending whatever their background. A better alternative might be much stricter streaming from the start within the existing comprehensive system.
What made my grammar school work for me was not the standard of the teaching - which varied from poor to mostly mediocre through to outstanding - but the level of expectation: we were expected to do nine O levels, to get good passes, to stay on for A levels and to go to university; so most of us did.
Note that the sample today had a heavily pro Conservative bias with a roughly 18% lead over Labour in the 2010 GE and even after the weighting adjustments a roughly 12% lead .
Good point, but I think you have underestimated the bias in the Populus sample.
Using the 2010 vote of the sample after weighting: Con 546, Lab 337, LD 350. As the three parties accounted for just over 90% of all the votes, that works out as a sample that says they voted: Con 40% Lab 24.7% LD 25.6%
i.e. Populus are using a sample with a 2010 Con lead of over 15% after reweighting.
It's the very worst sort of orgy, an ungodly gay orgy of vice and sin and evil. If only Diana were here to clear the landmines of sodomy. Snigger.
Actually the very worst sort sort of orgy are always the one's Dacre and Desmond send their 'intrepid' reporters out to find the details of when they "make their excuses and leave", if you know anything about the fun and games that happens behind the scenes at the tabloids.
Cammie also said he should be thought of as as some kind of spiritual "Dyno-Rod" so it's not as if his messianic hilarity was limited to Jesus inventing the Big Society.
As for Diana, perhaps a second rate Blair impersonator like Cammie could be 'the people's fop'?
I'm told by constituents that there's a fresh wave of Tory phone canvassing going on: this presents itself initially as a survey by the borough council but moves on to overt political questions. People who say they won't vote Tory are asked "Even if you don't plan to vote Conservative, would you prefer David Cameron to Ed Miliband as PM?" - presumably those who say yes will then be targeted by appropriate direct mail. Some people who contacted me were annoyed by what they saw as the initial concealment of the nature of the call, but they may not be typical of all respondents.
This may however be an Ashcroft poll - BroxtoweCat reported getting a recent one which sounded like it.
Yes but the state schools that supply that 50% are only available to people who live in the, usually very rich, catchment area of the existing grammar schools or 'state schools' that are 'non selective' on ability, but only select from a wealthy catchment area (the school that educates Michael Goves daughter is an example)
Council estate kids dont make up much of that 50%
Well (and I speak as someone who is inclined to be supportive of grammar schools), the evidence that they improve the outcomes of poor children is weak. See: http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2012/05/21/on-grammar-schools-2/ Grammar schools have been a boon for middle class parents wanting to save on £15,000/year school fees.
It's the very worst sort of orgy, an ungodly gay orgy of vice and sin and evil. If only Diana were here to clear the landmines of sodomy. Snigger.
Actually the very worst sort sort of orgy are always the one's Dacre and Desmond send their 'intrepid' reporters out to find the details of when they "make their excuses and leave", if you know anything about the fun and games that happens behind the scenes at the tabloids.
Cammie also said he should be thought of as as some kind of spiritual "Dyno-Rod" so it's not as if his messianic hilarity was limited to Jesus inventing the Big Society.
As for Diana, perhaps a second rate Blair impersonator like Cammie could be 'the people's fop'?
*snigger*
No one can ever match the saintliness of the peoples princess. Cams bible bashing has annoyed me intensely. Religion is for fools and the desperate.
If anyone can confirm the links work (as Fluffy kindly did yesterday), I'd be much obliged. I'm a technoidiot and the chances that I've failed are high.
Works fine for me! And I found it an interesting analysis. Just one little point - is there a typo somewhere in this bit? Or is my brain not working?
"It seems inconceivable that such an important referendum result will not have a major impact. In particular, if there is a Yes vote, it seems likely that the SNP will not get a major boost in the polls. Seats that looked out of reach may suddenly become winnable."
Ed Davey is 7/1 to be next Lib Dem leader (with bet 365)
Ed Davey is a deluded and dangerous individual. If/when the lights go out people will be looking at him. With torches
While I agree that Greenery increases electricity prices, the Germans must be feeling very relieved that there focus on wind and solar has allowed them to cut gas usage 25% in the last three years.
We have our own gas, no need for us to worry on unstable supply.
But the likes of Davey and the rest of the lunatics don't want us to extract it.
I want us to extract our gas, and am firmly in favour of fracking.
However, it is dangerously naieve to think that we can suddenly conjour up a surplus of gas. Overall, UK gas production has dropped 60% in the last 15 years (see: https://www.gov.uk/oil-and-gas-uk-field-data) as North Sea fields (and Morecombe Bay and others) have depleted.
Even if you assume that the Lancashire fields are as productive as the Texan ones, and you assume 100 gas rigs drilling all the time (which would be a huge number, as there are only 75 active oil and gas rigs in all of Europe), you would only manage to get UK gas production up to 68-75% of consumption. This would be a fantastic achievement, and would create employment, and tax revenues, as well as improving our balance of trade. But it would not make us a has exporter, and it would not allow us to have gas prices as low as the US.
Lib Dems would have expected to lose the support of those who hate the Conservatives so much that they can not accept a coalition with them however necessary for sound government.
What must be disappointing for Lib Dems is not to have gained more new support from the more liberal Conservative voters.
Lib Dems are now a centralist party rather than a radical party but have not been rewarded by voters for moving to the centre in the way that Blair and Cameron have benefitted in the past.
Yes but the state schools that supply that 50% are only available to people who live in the, usually very rich, catchment area of the existing grammar schools or 'state schools' that are 'non selective' on ability, but only select from a wealthy catchment area (the school that educates Michael Goves daughter is an example)
Council estate kids dont make up much of that 50%
One of the issues with the old grammar school system was that it heavily favoured the middle classes. I have a little bit of experience of this. Despite passing my 11+ and literally being the nearest kid to the school I did not get in originally - my place was taken by a child from a much wealthier background who lived further away. However, he ended up going private so I got in. The kid who lived second closest had to wait until the summer term before he got his place after another child who lived further away also went private.
I may be wrong, but in those local authorities where there are still grammar schools, the intake is largely middle class (ie, the number of kids on free school meals is low). If we are to introduce the grammar system again - which I think we should, in principle - then a way has to be developed to identify the children that would benefit from attending whatever their background. A better alternative might be much stricter streaming from the start within the existing comprehensive system.
What made my grammar school work for me was not the standard of the teaching - which varied from poor to mostly mediocre through to outstanding - but the level of expectation: we were expected to do nine O levels, to get good passes, to stay on for A levels and to go to university; so most of us did.
I agree with last paragraph... What made comprehensive schooling bad for me is that it was too tempting to muck about with the cooler kids that couldn't care less about grades. I was in the top maths group with the nerds and was ripped for it!
So I mucked about and failed
The problem with the current grammar school system is that there are so few of them that house prices near them go through the roof, and only middle class and above can afford to live in the catchment area. If there were more of them, this problem would be reduced. Both my parents were council house kids that passed the 11 plus and went to Grammar/tech schools
Can we assume that both you and the Telegraph are similarly outraged and disapproving of Nick Hurd, son of former Home Secretary Douglas, being an MP, or Bernard Jenkin, son of former cabinet minister Patrick, or Francis Maude, son of former cabinet minister Angus, or Robin Walker, son of former cabinet minister Peter, or David Prior, son of former cabinet minister Jim, or Ben Gummer, son of former cabinet minister John Selwyn ?
Perhaps following the same career as one of your parents is only a bad, evil thing when Labour people do it ?
Nepotism is always bad. However the level of hypocrisy shown by Labour here is quite startling. Just look at the non-stop barrage of 'Etonian chums' we get directed at the blues from the reds, and then consider the make up of Labour's front bench, and their next intake of MPs.
If anyone can confirm the links work (as Fluffy kindly did yesterday), I'd be much obliged. I'm a technoidiot and the chances that I've failed are high.
Works fine for me! And I found it an interesting analysis. Just one little point - is there a typo somewhere in this bit? Or is my brain not working?
"It seems inconceivable that such an important referendum result will not have a major impact. In particular, if there is a Yes vote, it seems likely that the SNP will not get a major boost in the polls. Seats that looked out of reach may suddenly become winnable."
It's a typo. Delete the word "not" when reading it (I'd started with a convoluted sentence with double negatives and obviously left one in). I'll edit it now so others aren't baffled.
Grammar schools were excellent for those of us lucky enough to go to them. The problem was the quality of education offered to those they excluded.
And now I must go. The Bridge table calls...
Yep, I think half the problem was that the Grammar Schools were bright enough to plot how to extract more money from whatever pots their could get money from. Sat in a Grammar School in Bucks, with my mum a deputy head of a Secondary Modern the haves (Grammar School children) and have nots (Secondary Moderns) did not just include teacher's expectations but also the actual money available. Back in the 1980's all the Grammar schools got cash to upgrade some of their 1960's buildings, non of the secondary moderns did...
25 years later and sat up north, I now know what it takes to be a good school. High expectations and an unwillingness to accept the status quo... Teachers may dislike the constant data collection, but at least it means problems should be being identified and fixed early.
It's the very worst sort of orgy, an ungodly gay orgy of vice and sin and evil. If only Diana were here to clear the landmines of sodomy. Snigger.
Actually the very worst sort sort of orgy are always the one's Dacre and Desmond send their 'intrepid' reporters out to find the details of when they "make their excuses and leave", if you know anything about the fun and games that happens behind the scenes at the tabloids.
Cammie also said he should be thought of as as some kind of spiritual "Dyno-Rod" so it's not as if his messianic hilarity was limited to Jesus inventing the Big Society.
As for Diana, perhaps a second rate Blair impersonator like Cammie could be 'the people's fop'?
*snigger*
No one can ever match the saintliness of the peoples princess. Cams bible bashing has annoyed me intensely. Religion is for fools and the desperate.
It's no worse than the religion of Eck, where the McLord is deemed infallible, and anyone who dares questions his word, is a heretic who must be cast into the pit of sin.
"One of the issues with the old grammar school system was that it heavily favoured the middle classes."
That was not universally true, it certainly wasn't in my day. My grammar school was in Battersea and most of the pupils came, like me, from the council estates of Battersea, Wandsworth and Clapham. There were a few from wealthier backgrounds who travelled in from as far away as Worcester Park, but they were very much in the minority.
So it was possible for grammar schools to be run to the benefit of bright youngsters from modest backgrounds and if could be done once it could be done again.
Blimey how on earth did you know that then and even more remarkably, remember it now?
I had a wide circle of friends in the sixth form and we were always hanging out at each others' houses. So you got to know the parents. They were never bus drivers, steel workers or miners. Some were attached to the local university, whose main campus was quite close. My first girlfriend's father was a university lecturer in Russian. Other parents were architects/builders/industrial chemists/middle managers in industry/civil servants.
We rubbed shoulders with the kids from the projects of course, but didn;t socialise with them much after 16. They mostly left for apprenticeships and the like. Some did very well, of course.
Can we assume that both you and the Telegraph are similarly outraged and disapproving of Nick Hurd, son of former Home Secretary Douglas, being an MP, or Bernard Jenkin, son of former cabinet minister Patrick, or Francis Maude, son of former cabinet minister Angus, or Robin Walker, son of former cabinet minister Peter, or David Prior, son of former cabinet minister Jim, or Ben Gummer, son of former cabinet minister John Selwyn ?
Perhaps following the same career as one of your parents is only a bad, evil thing when Labour people do it ?
Nepotism is always bad. However the level of hypocrisy shown by Labour here is quite startling. Just look at the non-stop barrage of 'Etonian chums' we get directed at the blues from the reds, and then consider the make up of Labour's front bench, and their next intake of MPs.
Can we assume that both you and the Telegraph are similarly outraged and disapproving of Nick Hurd, son of former Home Secretary Douglas, being an MP, or Bernard Jenkin, son of former cabinet minister Patrick, or Francis Maude, son of former cabinet minister Angus, or Robin Walker, son of former cabinet minister Peter, or David Prior, son of former cabinet minister Jim, or Ben Gummer, son of former cabinet minister John Selwyn ?
Perhaps following the same career as one of your parents is only a bad, evil thing when Labour people do it ?
Nepotism is always bad. However the level of hypocrisy shown by Labour here is quite startling. Just look at the non-stop barrage of 'Etonian chums' we get directed at the blues from the reds, and then consider the make up of Labour's front bench, and their next intake of MPs.
You are assuming it is nepotism. Any or all of the above could be the best candidate
Financier, this answer is in somewhat random order, although I've tried to summarise at the end.
I don't like the (apparent at any rate) effect of the NHS reforms especially as they seem to apply to my local GP practice, although I agree with Dr Foxinsox that some of that is due to the Labour reforms to medical education.
I am very unhappy at continued privatisation; where can it end? There's surely nothing else that can be sold off, and I don't see a signifcant improvement in services that can't be accounted for by technology. Which would have come in anyway!
I think the constant negativity about Europe from the Tories is counter-productive. I cannot imagine that our prtners will not soon be tired (if they are not already) of our constant "will we stay, won't we stay" attitude. If the EU Parliament passed a "Make your minds up or Eff Off" resolution I wouldn't blame them!
Having said all that, I think the Labour policy on energy prices is daft; freezing prices simply holds back investment.
I don't like the Tory schools policies, although Labour's aren't much better; while I wouldn't necessarily do away with all fee paying schools immediately I would insist that all schools with any degree of Government funding are open to all. I would get rid of state supported faith schools.
Oh, and I want to see a fair electoral system, with a rationally selected second chamber.
When it all comes down to it though, I see a Tory run Britain as being governed in the interests of the fortunate, and I would rather see my country governed in the interests of all. "We're all in this together" was the most hypocritical slogan ever.
That do for a start? I'm sure you will agree with one or two points and disagree with others. Or should that be the other way round.
Honestly speaking, having read that list, I'm not sure why you are wavering. Seems to me that you are really on the left of the Labour Party. Not really Tribune left, but certainly soft left.
As I said (much) earlier having been in at the beginning of this thread, I've been off on grandparental duties, participating in the water-throwing festival that is the Thai New Year.
And, TBH Mr C, I always had the impression that much of the old Liberal Party WAS significantly to the Left of the Labour Party! It made it quite difficult in the early days of the merger! Labour, IMHO, has always had a significantly socially conservative element.
F1: worth remembering the Russian Grand Prix is due in October. As a rule, F1 tends not to care about politics but if there's a war with Ukraine that could be enough to suspend it. The circuit looks low speed (and tedious, to be honest) so it would probably see less Mercedes dominance than other tracks (China should be another Silver Arrows 1-2).
private school kids receive shed-loads of coaching and exam practice which gives them the edge over state school applicants at interview/selection.
In other words, those children would not have got into Oxbridge from the state sector, because it systematically fails to develop them to their actual potential. Which is my point, exactly.
My experience of the state sector is that as long as a child is average they think they've done enough, even if they've done nothing. When you suggest otherwise - for example, when I asked my eldest's form teacher a year or two ago if she thought her good enough to get a scholarship to North London Collegiate School - they simply look at you with incomprehension and indifference.
Populus is a very nice poll for Labour given the massive 2010Tory overpoll therein
Crrrrrrrrrutch
How so?
There's always a reason for Labours shrinking lead. Over polling of Tories, crop circles, something else. The fact that Labour are as popular as a bag of sick never gets considered,
People protest against governments, protesting against the opposition ought to be the sole property of W Hague 97-01
It's the very worst sort of orgy, an ungodly gay orgy of vice and sin and evil. If only Diana were here to clear the landmines of sodomy. Snigger.
Actually the very worst sort sort of orgy are always the one's Dacre and Desmond send their 'intrepid' reporters out to find the details of when they "make their excuses and leave", if you know anything about the fun and games that happens behind the scenes at the tabloids.
Cammie also said he should be thought of as as some kind of spiritual "Dyno-Rod" so it's not as if his messianic hilarity was limited to Jesus inventing the Big Society.
As for Diana, perhaps a second rate Blair impersonator like Cammie could be 'the people's fop'?
*snigger*
No one can ever match the saintliness of the peoples princess. Cams bible bashing has annoyed me intensely. Religion is for fools and the desperate.
It's no worse than the religion of Eck, where the McLord is deemed infallible, and anyone who dares questions his word, is a heretic who must be cast into the pit of sin.
All faith outside of the self is transient and doomed to disappointment. I am the way the truth and the light, screw everyone else,
private school kids receive shed-loads of coaching and exam practice which gives them the edge over state school applicants at interview/selection.
In other words, those children would not have got into Oxbridge from the state sector, because it systematically fails to develop them to their actual potential. Which is my point, exactly.
My experience of the state sector is that as long as a child is average they think they've done enough, even if they've done nothing. When you suggest otherwise - for example, when I asked my eldest's form teacher a year or two ago if she thought her good enough to get a scholarship to North London Collegiate School - they simply look at you with incomprehension and indifference.
Why would you expect a state school form teacher to know what standard is required for a North London private school? Even at my daughter's (expensive) prep school, they seem curiously unaware of what standards are required for the various senior schools.
private school kids receive shed-loads of coaching and exam practice which gives them the edge over state school applicants at interview/selection.
In other words, those children would not have got into Oxbridge from the state sector, because it systematically fails to develop them to their actual potential. Which is my point, exactly.
My experience of the state sector is that as long as a child is average they think they've done enough, even if they've done nothing. When you suggest otherwise - for example, when I asked my eldest's form teacher a year or two ago if she thought her good enough to get a scholarship to North London Collegiate School - they simply look at you with incomprehension and indifference.
Difficult isn't it. My elder grandchildren (ages 24 & 22) were probably not encouraged enough at any time through their school career, with the result that the younger one didn't get the degree he should have done. However the next pair (10 & 7) are getting much more pressure at primary school. Something that will probably shock many here; both of the elder pair are anxious to do something "useful"; the elder is teaching, although she's fed up with the Govian paperwork and the demands of marking ……. works out to something like a 70 hour week for virtually all weeks of the school term …. and younger one is working in a Pupil Referral Unit
People protest against governments, protesting against the opposition ought to be the sole property of W Hague 97-01
Pretty common in the first term of opposition, isn't it? Michael Foot wasn't wildly popular either. If it hadn't been for the LibDem realignment Ed Miliband would be looking a lot like William Hague right now. But LibDems voters have realigned, and FPTP is in one of its funny moods, so he's heading for Downing Street.
private school kids receive shed-loads of coaching and exam practice which gives them the edge over state school applicants at interview/selection.
In other words, those children would not have got into Oxbridge from the state sector, because it systematically fails to develop them to their actual potential. Which is my point, exactly.
My experience of the state sector is that as long as a child is average they think they've done enough, even if they've done nothing. When you suggest otherwise - for example, when I asked my eldest's form teacher a year or two ago if she thought her good enough to get a scholarship to North London Collegiate School - they simply look at you with incomprehension and indifference.
Why would you expect a state school form teacher to know what standard is required for a North London private school? Even at my daughter's (expensive) prep school, they seem curiously unaware of what standards are required for the various senior schools.
I'd expect it because about 50% of the children from her school (which is North London) go on to private schools, a number on academic scholarships and bursaries, including to that one. More still get into selective state schools. She should have an idea of what outcomes can be expected at 11+ based on the raw material she sees.
The school's academic reputation exists in spite of the way the school is run, not because of it. They claim credit for the efforts put in by pupils and parents while resolutely fostering the attitude that mediocrity is fine.
None of the above outcomes is supported in any way by the school. They offer no support whatever to children wanting to sit 11+; the assumption is that the local comp is good enough. There must be many kids who could and would get into these school but whose parents have no ambition for their children, and neither does the school.
People protest against governments, protesting against the opposition ought to be the sole property of W Hague 97-01
Pretty common in the first term of opposition, isn't it? Michael Foot wasn't wildly popular either, IIUC. If it hadn't been for the LibDem realignment Ed Miliband would be looking a lot like William Hague right now. But LibDems voters have realigned, and FPTP is in one of its funny moods, so he's heading for Downing Street.
At the moment, it would appear that way. But leads shrink and go into reverse.
"My experience of the state sector is that as long as a child is average they think they've done enough, even if they've done nothing."
Gaming the system is partly responsible for that attitude, at least in some schools. When my son was thirteen I became very concerned about his ability with the written word (until then, being an older father, I had accepted his teachers' assurances about the progress he was making). When I tackled the school I was told that he had reached the minimum standard expected in the SATs tests and therefore he could not expect any help, they had to concentrate on children who were struggling to get to level 4. The same occurred at GCSE, if a child was on course to get a C they were left alone to get on with things by themselves. There was no effort made to develop a child's full potential, just to get them to the lowest standard demanded by the government set targets (and, by the cringe, those standards are low).
the independence campaign has a women problem. The latest polling showed just 27 per cent of female Scots plan to vote Yes in September, compared to 46 per cent of men. Despite everything the Nationalists have done – put free childcare at the centre of their pitch; pick Nicola Sturgeon to front their media campaign – they've failed to make inroads with women.
private school kids receive shed-loads of coaching and exam practice which gives them the edge over state school applicants at interview/selection.
In other words, those children would not have got into Oxbridge from the state sector, because it systematically fails to develop them to their actual potential. Which is my point, exactly.
My experience of the state sector is that as long as a child is average they think they've done enough, even if they've done nothing. When you suggest otherwise - for example, when I asked my eldest's form teacher a year or two ago if she thought her good enough to get a scholarship to North London Collegiate School - they simply look at you with incomprehension and indifference.
Why would you expect a state school form teacher to know what standard is required for a North London private school? Even at my daughter's (expensive) prep school, they seem curiously unaware of what standards are required for the various senior schools.
I'd expect it because about 50% of the children from her school (which is North London) go on to private schools, a number on academic scholarships and bursaries, including to that one. More still get into selective state schools. She should have an idea of what outcomes can be expected at 11+ based on the raw material she sees.
The school's academic reputation exists in spite of the way the school is run, not because of it. They claim credit for the efforts put in by pupils and parents while resolutely fostering the attitude that mediocrity is fine.
None of the above outcomes is supported in any way by the school. They offer no support whatever to children wanting to sit 11+; the assumption is that the local comp is good enough. There must be many kids who could and would get into these school but whose parents have no ambition for their children, and neither does the school.
My son was told about a year ago, by the state primary which his son attends, that the lad, then aged 9 was a good enough singer for a somewhat prestigious choir school, but that he's have to do a rigourous academic entrance as well as pass the audition. He didn't make it (although the door is not quite closed) but there have been long discussions about which of the various Kent and Surrey secondary schools, often highly selective, the boy should move to in September. Looks like all's sorted now, but we wait to see. How do I feel about that? Well, grandchildren passing exams is always a source of pride for grandparents, particularly as both of us went to Grammar Schools. Very mixed feelins in some ways though. 11 year olds on 3 buses!
"My experience of the state sector is that as long as a child is average they think they've done enough, even if they've done nothing."
Gaming the system is partly responsible for that attitude, at least in some schools. When my son was thirteen I became very concerned about his ability with the written word (until then, being an older father, I had accepted his teachers' assurances about the progress he was making). When I tackled the school I was told that he had reached the minimum standard expected in the SATs tests and therefore he could not expect any help, they had to concentrate on children who were struggling to get to level 4. The same occurred at GCSE, if a child was on course to get a C they were left alone to get on with things by themselves. There was no effort made to develop a child's full potential, just to get them to the lowest standard demanded by the government set targets (and, by the cringe, those standards are low).
This is precisely the attitude of a World War One general, of course. In some areas we are breaking through so we can neglect those because they're doing fine. We need to reinforce failure instead. As long as the whole line moves forward 100 yards that's better than breaking through anywhere for 10 miles.
The fact is that bright children have special needs too, but are routinely and as of policy ignored. For this reason, you pay for private provision because what the state offers is rubbish, in the same way that you pay for private security patrols because the police don't do them, and you pay for private health care if you can, because BUPA doesn't leave you to die of starvation amid your own poo while demanding public respect and adulation.
Perhaps it is you with the crutch, given that you are taking solace in the one poll that shows a tight race, when that very poll has overpolled 2010 Tories by a very large margin.
I agree that a great deal turns on whether or not the Conservatives panic, in the face of a likely third place in the European elections.
You could say the same of the LDs, they seem to be heading for a poor fourth place in the EU elections.
"The Lib Dem dilemma, then, is to decide how far to go in trying to win back people who have largely made up their minds to support Ed Miliband, and indeed only voted Lib Dem in the first place as a left-wing alternative to Labour.
The more they do so, the less success they will have with the smaller but much more biddable moderate voters, who are also open to the Conservatives, want the party to play a constructive part in government and would be unimpressed with the antics that the angry left require."
"My experience of the state sector is that as long as a child is average they think they've done enough, even if they've done nothing."
Gaming the system is partly responsible for that attitude, at least in some schools. When my son was thirteen I became very concerned about his ability with the written word (until then, being an older father, I had accepted his teachers' assurances about the progress he was making). When I tackled the school I was told that he had reached the minimum standard expected in the SATs tests and therefore he could not expect any help, they had to concentrate on children who were struggling to get to level 4. The same occurred at GCSE, if a child was on course to get a C they were left alone to get on with things by themselves. There was no effort made to develop a child's full potential, just to get them to the lowest standard demanded by the government set targets (and, by the cringe, those standards are low).
This is precisely the attitude of a World War One general, of course. In some areas we are breaking through so we can neglect those because they're doing fine. We need to reinforce failure instead. As long as the whole line moves forward 100 yards that's better than breaking through anywhere for 10 miles.
The fact is that bright children have special needs too, but are routinely and as of policy ignored. For this reason, you pay for private provision because what the state offers is rubbish, in the same way that you pay for private security patrols because the police don't do them, and you pay for private health care if you can, because BUPA doesn't leave you to die of starvation amid your own poo while demanding public respect and adulation.
I was extremely lucky as a primary school child. Despite the school being slap-bang in the middle of a council estate, the headmistress took time out to teach the brightest 7 or 8 in each year, twice a week, in a separate group. It was a massive influence on me, and the only time between 5 and 18 when I felt that excelling was celebrated.
Also, "BUPA doesn't leave you to die of starvation amid your own poo while demanding public respect and adulation" is fantastic.
I was asked today to fill out a survey on what I thought of the Ladbrokes website. It's always nice to be asked about things where I have strong opinions.
I doubt they'll be asking me after what I've written here recently about the "Magic Sign" - more's the pity.
Perhaps it is you with the crutch, given that you are taking solace in the one poll that shows a tight race, when that very poll has overpolled 2010 Tories by a very large margin.
Food for thought.
Populus know their business. It's not out of line with other recent polling.
Perhaps it is you with the crutch, given that you are taking solace in the one poll that shows a tight race, when that very poll has overpolled 2010 Tories by a very large margin.
Food for thought.
Perhaps, although it is in line with most of the recent Populus polling. They do account for over sampling you know. The 'real' lead is about 3 to 5 ATM, there is slight evidence of a Miller slip, the next 3 weeks or so will show if this is a permanent shift to the 6 leads of Sunday or a knee jerk. The lead is decreasing, polling is not static, nor is public opinion. Unless and until the trend for a smaller Labour lead reverses, it is Labour supporters who need the crutch (of Lib Dems or brazen over confidence) Whatever the outcome, the likely unwinding of Alliance and then Lib Dem support 83-2010 will throw out many of the recent 'rules' of elections. I'd expect it to make the Tories job of being largest party slightly harder, but their job of majority slightly easier, for Labour it will redistribute their vote slightly more evenly, giving them a number of votes wasted in the South but giving them mega majorities in the metropolitan North.
Oh, I'm not taking solace. I won't until Labour are either finished as a political force, or back where they belong as the party of working men and women.
"If the support doesn’t move as expected over the next few months then the model will self-correct and respond to the new situation."
I think the UKIP prediction will be moving up from 3.9%.
I can't for the life of me see any polling factor historical or based on current variance between polls to account for 3.9%, a figure far lower than any current poll and UKIP's support has not, I think, decline by two thirds in the run up to an election. At 95% - and given you cannot win <0 seats, the effect is to make UKIP at least 19/1 to win a single seat. That's 13/10 in the bookies (which doesn't take my fancy, but you get the idea.)
"If the support doesn’t move as expected over the next few months then the model will self-correct and respond to the new situation."
I think the UKIP prediction will be moving up from 3.9%.
I can't for the life of me see any polling factor historical or based on current variance between polls to account for 3.9%, a figure far lower than any current poll and UKIP's support has not, I think, decline by two thirds in the run up to an election. At 95% - and given you cannot win <0 seats, the effect is to make UKIP at least 19/1 to win a single seat. That's 13/10 in the bookies (which doesn't take my fancy, but you get the idea.)</p>
UKIP got 16% at the 2009 EU election, and 3% at the 2010 general election. I assume that's the pattern the model is expecting to see replicated.
"If the support doesn’t move as expected over the next few months then the model will self-correct and respond to the new situation."
I think the UKIP prediction will be moving up from 3.9%.
I can't for the life of me see any polling factor historical or based on current variance between polls to account for 3.9%, a figure far lower than any current poll and UKIP's support has not, I think, decline by two thirds in the run up to an election. At 95% - and given you cannot win <0 seats, the effect is to make UKIP at least 19/1 to win a single seat. That's 13/10 in the bookies (which doesn't take my fancy, but you get the idea.)</p>
UKIP got 16% at the 2009 EU election, and 3% at the 2010 general election. I assume that's the pattern the model is expecting to see replicated.
It's been obvious for some time that the old model is broken. The more the pollsters stick to past records that are no longer relevant, the bigger will be the egg covering their proverbial faces.
A game of spot the difference even a PB Hodge would be able to spot:
Latest Poll results (date of data):
Populus 11-13 April - Labour lead 2% Yougov 10-11 April - Labour lead 6% Com Res 9-11 April - Labour lead 6% Populus 9-10 April - Labour lead 1% Yougov 9-10 April - Labour 6% lead Opinium 8-10 April - Labour 6% lead
A game of spot the difference even a PB Hodge would be able to spot:
Latest Poll results (date of data):
Populus 11-13 April - Labour lead 2% Yougov 10-11 April - Labour lead 6% Com Res 9-11 April - Labour lead 6% Populus 9-10 April - Labour lead 1% Yougov 9-10 April - Labour 6% lead Opinium 8-10 April - Labour 6% lead
You've forgotten the really important PB golden rule - the 'rogue is always the one (or 2) you don't like'. it's been fun watching the lefties try to rubbish Populus today.
Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.
People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.
From the bowels of our wonderfully informed FO. Don't worry about Russia.
" Russia "does not want disorder" and its objectives remain "entirely negotiable", former British Ambassador to Russia Sir Tony Brenton has said. Sir Tony told the Today programme that, instead, Russia wants an "economically open" Ukraine in which the Russian population are "protected" through federalisation. First broadcast on BBC Radio 4's Today programme on Monday 14 April."
I do like it when a political bod makes a prediction and then gives caveats (OGH seems to have written the book on it ;-) ). If they turn out correct, they say ...Ah I told you so, if they don't then they say, Ah, I told you if they didn't/did do this it would all go wrong for them.
No caveats....Labour will have a working majority at the next election.
Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.
People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.
Lol - even funnier seeing the grammatical errors when you rush to riposte:)
I do like it when a political bod makes a prediction and then gives caveats (OGH seems to have written the book on it ;-) ). If they turn out correct, they say ...Ah I told you so, if they don't then they say, Ah, I told you if they didn't/did do this it would all go wrong for them.
No caveats....Labour will have a working majority at the next election.
I do like it when a political bod makes a prediction and then gives caveats (OGH seems to have written the book on it ;-) ). If they turn out correct, they say ...Ah I told you so, if they don't then they say, Ah, I told you if they didn't/did do this it would all go wrong for them.
No caveats....Labour will have a working majority at the next election.
Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.
People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.
Lol - even funnier seeing the grammatical errors when you rush to riposte:)
If you are going to make clever comments about grammar, best to make sure you have riposted (!!!) accurately. You do know what riposte means, don't you?
I do like it when a political bod makes a prediction and then gives caveats (OGH seems to have written the book on it ;-) ). If they turn out correct, they say ...Ah I told you so, if they don't then they say, Ah, I told you if they didn't/did do this it would all go wrong for them.
No caveats....Labour will have a working majority at the next election.
I do like it when a political bod makes a prediction and then gives caveats (OGH seems to have written the book on it ;-) ). If they turn out correct, they say ...Ah I told you so, if they don't then they say, Ah, I told you if they didn't/did do this it would all go wrong for them.
No caveats....Labour will have a working majority at the next election.
Why don't you debate his point rather than making snotty comments about his grammar?
I'm not debating because there is no point - I merely observed that way a group of lefties today have tried to rubbish Populus because they don't like the score - interestingly without their childishness it would largely have passed without much comment
Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.
People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.
Lol - even funnier seeing the grammatical errors when you rush to riposte:)
If you are going to make clever comments about grammar, best to make sure you have riposted (!!!) accurately. You do know what riposte means, don't you?
Roflwmtita - as Corporal Jones put it - " they don't like it up em"
That is just the same as Rods Lambert and Butler Pony Juice method with 10000 Brighton baths simulations. Rod, I would hunt this imposter down and sue him for copyright.
Tyke - Here is your specially selected candidate for GE night.
Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.
People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.
Lol - even funnier seeing the grammatical errors when you rush to riposte:)
If you are going to make clever comments about grammar, best to make sure you have riposted (!!!) accurately. You do know what riposte means, don't you?
Roflwmtita - as Corporal Jones put it - " they don't like it up em"
So you don't know what riposte means. Hint: you are probably best off not commenting on people's grammar on an internet message board.
Interesting analysis about Labour's vote distribution.
Do you have any evidence for it?
Yes, the distribution of Liberal Democrat votes, Labours local by election recovery in the South and the associated basic logical connection. Labour aren't gaining from the Tories to any significant degree, so where are they gaining? Where the Lib Dems are relatively strong - at 10% it's simply inconceivable for the Lib Dems to hold on v the Tories and lose everywhere else. Hence Labour will, to a certain degree be piling up wasted votes in the South and unnecessarily large majorities in the North. Of course they will benefit in the marginals if this trend holds, but not to the extent UNS implies.
That is just the same as Rods Lambert and Butler Pony Juice method with 10000 Brighton baths simulations. Rod, I would hunt this imposter down and sue him for copyright.
Tyke - Here is your specially selected candidate for GE night.
Comments
But the likes of Davey and the rest of the lunatics don't want us to extract it.
My home city will protect the proud Leeds record of having won the top flight more recently than the chirpy twongaloids.
Suarez will trip over his buck teeth and miss the World Cup, too
Can we assume that both you and the Telegraph are similarly outraged and disapproving of
Nick Hurd, son of former Home Secretary Douglas, being an MP, or Bernard Jenkin, son of former cabinet minister Patrick, or Francis Maude, son of former cabinet minister Angus, or Robin Walker, son of former cabinet minister Peter, or David Prior, son of former cabinet minister Jim, or Ben Gummer, son of former cabinet minister John Selwyn ?
Perhaps following the same career as one of your parents is only a bad, evil thing when Labour people do it ?
Luis Suarez has only scored 7 out of our last 42 goals.
I'm worried.
Twas ever thus. When I was at a Welsh comprehensive in the 1980s all of the kids in the academic stream were children of lower middle or middle middle class parents.
http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/2014/April/pupil-behaviour-schools-research
I may be wrong, but in those local authorities where there are still grammar schools, the intake is largely middle class (ie, the number of kids on free school meals is low). If we are to introduce the grammar system again - which I think we should, in principle - then a way has to be developed to identify the children that would benefit from attending whatever their background. A better alternative might be much stricter streaming from the start within the existing comprehensive system.
What made my grammar school work for me was not the standard of the teaching - which varied from poor to mostly mediocre through to outstanding - but the level of expectation: we were expected to do nine O levels, to get good passes, to stay on for A levels and to go to university; so most of us did.
Using the 2010 vote of the sample after weighting: Con 546, Lab 337, LD 350.
As the three parties accounted for just over 90% of all the votes, that works out as a sample that says they voted:
Con 40%
Lab 24.7%
LD 25.6%
i.e. Populus are using a sample with a 2010 Con lead of over 15% after reweighting.
Cammie also said he should be thought of as as some kind of spiritual "Dyno-Rod" so it's not as if his messianic hilarity was limited to Jesus inventing the Big Society.
As for Diana, perhaps a second rate Blair impersonator like Cammie could be 'the people's fop'?
*snigger*
This may however be an Ashcroft poll - BroxtoweCat reported getting a recent one which sounded like it.
Also, the study here (http://www.study.cam.ac.uk/undergraduate/publications/docs/admissionsstatistics2012.pdf, page 23) suggests that Cambridge (and I have no data on Oxford) does a pretty good job of getting people in from poorer areas.
Cams bible bashing has annoyed me intensely. Religion is for fools and the desperate.
"It seems inconceivable that such an important referendum result will not have a major impact. In particular, if there is a Yes vote, it seems likely that the SNP will not get a major boost in the polls. Seats that looked out of reach may suddenly become winnable."
However, it is dangerously naieve to think that we can suddenly conjour up a surplus of gas. Overall, UK gas production has dropped 60% in the last 15 years (see: https://www.gov.uk/oil-and-gas-uk-field-data) as North Sea fields (and Morecombe Bay and others) have depleted.
Even if you assume that the Lancashire fields are as productive as the Texan ones, and you assume 100 gas rigs drilling all the time (which would be a huge number, as there are only 75 active oil and gas rigs in all of Europe), you would only manage to get UK gas production up to 68-75% of consumption. This would be a fantastic achievement, and would create employment, and tax revenues, as well as improving our balance of trade. But it would not make us a has exporter, and it would not allow us to have gas prices as low as the US.
Suarez has stayed remarkably free of red cards and remarkably fit all season. It must be all that human flesh he eats. A warning to vegetarians?
What must be disappointing for Lib Dems is not to have gained more new support from the more liberal Conservative voters.
Lib Dems are now a centralist party rather than a radical party but have not been rewarded by voters for moving to the centre in the way that Blair and Cameron have benefitted in the past.
I agree with last paragraph... What made comprehensive schooling bad for me is that it was too tempting to muck about with the cooler kids that couldn't care less about grades. I was in the top maths group with the nerds and was ripped for it!
So I mucked about and failed
The problem with the current grammar school system is that there are so few of them that house prices near them go through the roof, and only middle class and above can afford to live in the catchment area. If there were more of them, this problem would be reduced. Both my parents were council house kids that passed the 11 plus and went to Grammar/tech schools
25 years later and sat up north, I now know what it takes to be a good school. High expectations and an unwillingness to accept the status quo... Teachers may dislike the constant data collection, but at least it means problems should be being identified and fixed early.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27023145
I'd guess that's an interrim replacement.
That was not universally true, it certainly wasn't in my day. My grammar school was in Battersea and most of the pupils came, like me, from the council estates of Battersea, Wandsworth and Clapham. There were a few from wealthier backgrounds who travelled in from as far away as Worcester Park, but they were very much in the minority.
So it was possible for grammar schools to be run to the benefit of bright youngsters from modest backgrounds and if could be done once it could be done again.
I had a wide circle of friends in the sixth form and we were always hanging out at each others' houses. So you got to know the parents. They were never bus drivers, steel workers or miners. Some were attached to the local university, whose main campus was quite close. My first girlfriend's father was a university lecturer in Russian. Other parents were architects/builders/industrial chemists/middle managers in industry/civil servants.
We rubbed shoulders with the kids from the projects of course, but didn;t socialise with them much after 16. They mostly left for apprenticeships and the like. Some did very well, of course.
And, TBH Mr C, I always had the impression that much of the old Liberal Party WAS significantly to the Left of the Labour Party! It made it quite difficult in the early days of the merger! Labour, IMHO, has always had a significantly socially conservative element.
Edited extra bit: just saw this from Joe Saward (Russian bit at the end): http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/04/14/when-borders-can-be-stretched-and-when-they-cannot/
My experience of the state sector is that as long as a child is average they think they've done enough, even if they've done nothing. When you suggest otherwise - for example, when I asked my eldest's form teacher a year or two ago if she thought her good enough to get a scholarship to North London Collegiate School - they simply look at you with incomprehension and indifference.
The fact that Labour are as popular as a bag of sick never gets considered,
People protest against governments, protesting against the opposition ought to be the sole property of W Hague 97-01
I am the way the truth and the light, screw everyone else,
Something that will probably shock many here; both of the elder pair are anxious to do something "useful"; the elder is teaching, although she's fed up with the Govian paperwork and the demands of marking ……. works out to something like a 70 hour week for virtually all weeks of the school term …. and younger one is working in a Pupil Referral Unit
The school's academic reputation exists in spite of the way the school is run, not because of it. They claim credit for the efforts put in by pupils and parents while resolutely fostering the attitude that mediocrity is fine.
None of the above outcomes is supported in any way by the school. They offer no support whatever to children wanting to sit 11+; the assumption is that the local comp is good enough. There must be many kids who could and would get into these school but whose parents have no ambition for their children, and neither does the school.
I don;t see how it could be nepotism because the parents aren't involved in candidate selection, are they?
Gaming the system is partly responsible for that attitude, at least in some schools. When my son was thirteen I became very concerned about his ability with the written word (until then, being an older father, I had accepted his teachers' assurances about the progress he was making). When I tackled the school I was told that he had reached the minimum standard expected in the SATs tests and therefore he could not expect any help, they had to concentrate on children who were struggling to get to level 4. The same occurred at GCSE, if a child was on course to get a C they were left alone to get on with things by themselves. There was no effort made to develop a child's full potential, just to get them to the lowest standard demanded by the government set targets (and, by the cringe, those standards are low).
Keep it up jessie, some day you will have an original thought
I agree that a great deal turns on whether or not the Conservatives panic, in the face of a likely third place in the European elections.
How do I feel about that? Well, grandchildren passing exams is always a source of pride for grandparents, particularly as both of us went to Grammar Schools.
Very mixed feelins in some ways though. 11 year olds on 3 buses!
Under the contracts, employees agree to be available for work as and when it is required, with no guarantee.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-27001024
Come the Revolution!!
The fact is that bright children have special needs too, but are routinely and as of policy ignored. For this reason, you pay for private provision because what the state offers is rubbish, in the same way that you pay for private security patrols because the police don't do them, and you pay for private health care if you can, because BUPA doesn't leave you to die of starvation amid your own poo while demanding public respect and adulation.
Perhaps it is you with the crutch, given that you are taking solace in the one poll that shows a tight race, when that very poll has overpolled 2010 Tories by a very large margin.
Food for thought.
"The Lib Dem dilemma, then, is to decide how far to go in trying to win back people who have largely made up their minds to support Ed Miliband, and indeed only voted Lib Dem in the first place as a left-wing alternative to Labour.
The more they do so, the less success they will have with the smaller but much more biddable moderate voters, who are also open to the Conservatives, want the party to play a constructive part in government and would be unimpressed with the antics that the angry left require."
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/03/what-are-the-liberal-democrats-for/
Also, "BUPA doesn't leave you to die of starvation amid your own poo while demanding public respect and adulation" is fantastic.
I think the UKIP prediction will be moving up from 3.9%.
The 'real' lead is about 3 to 5 ATM, there is slight evidence of a Miller slip, the next 3 weeks or so will show if this is a permanent shift to the 6 leads of Sunday or a knee jerk.
The lead is decreasing, polling is not static, nor is public opinion. Unless and until the trend for a smaller Labour lead reverses, it is Labour supporters who need the crutch (of Lib Dems or brazen over confidence)
Whatever the outcome, the likely unwinding of Alliance and then Lib Dem support 83-2010 will throw out many of the recent 'rules' of elections. I'd expect it to make the Tories job of being largest party slightly harder, but their job of majority slightly easier, for Labour it will redistribute their vote slightly more evenly, giving them a number of votes wasted in the South but giving them mega majorities in the metropolitan North.
Oh, I'm not taking solace. I won't until Labour are either finished as a political force, or back where they belong as the party of working men and women.
zerohedge @zerohedge 34m
East Ukraine Braces For Military Operation As Ultimatum Passes: Full Ukraine Event Recap http://tinyurl.com/qydu9jq
Guardian news @guardiannews 33m
Russian TV weatherman warns of 'winds of change' in east Ukraine http://gu.com/p/3zddd/tw
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27018199
What is Obama going to do? The world wonders.
Probably Sweet Fanny Adam.
Latest Poll results (date of data):
Populus 11-13 April - Labour lead 2%
Yougov 10-11 April - Labour lead 6%
Com Res 9-11 April - Labour lead 6%
Populus 9-10 April - Labour lead 1%
Yougov 9-10 April - Labour 6% lead
Opinium 8-10 April - Labour 6% lead
It's not for humble little old me to out-think the great, magnificent, Obama.
People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.
Russian Market @russian_market 5m
62% of Russians approve the closure of McDonalds in Russia - Polls
Loads of McDonaldskis will be replacing them.
" Russia "does not want disorder" and its objectives remain "entirely negotiable", former British Ambassador to Russia Sir Tony Brenton has said. Sir Tony told the Today programme that, instead, Russia wants an "economically open" Ukraine in which the Russian population are "protected" through federalisation. First broadcast on BBC Radio 4's Today programme on Monday 14 April."
George Eaton @georgeeaton
Peter Kellner predicts Conservative victory in 2015 - as long as the Tories keep their head http://bit.ly/QlqWcT
The fundamentals favour Cameron
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/04/14/fundamentals-favour-cameron/
Interesting analysis about Labour's vote distribution.
Do you have any evidence for it?
No caveats....Labour will have a working majority at the next election.
Nowhere in Kellner's piece does he forecast a Tory victory, unless I am missing something
Why don't you debate his point rather than making snotty comments about his grammar?
UK General Election Prediction
By Peter Ould,
http://www.peter-ould.net/2014/04/14/uk-general-election-prediction/
Tyke - Here is your specially selected candidate for GE night.
http://andysawford.wordpress.com/
Of course they will benefit in the marginals if this trend holds, but not to the extent UNS implies.
Www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/display/playlistref/100414
Click on film in bottom right