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Punters still think the Lib Dems will win more seats than the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,106

    NEW THREAD WITH SUBTLE JAMES BOND REFERENCE

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,295

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    US tells NATO may withdraw from some NATO planning mechanisms if Europe does not "take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities" by 2027
    https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1996899432588365984

    That's weird.

    The other day at the NATO Leaders' summit, oine of \trump's mushrooms popped up to rebuke Europe for buying fewer weapons from the USA.

    But then Trump & Co are weird.

    Truth, meet consequences.
    Entirely consistent. The demand is both Europe buys weapons from the US (often that the US maintains control over when they can be used) and that Europe replaces US forces in conventional defence of Europe.

    From a fairness point of view the second part is actually completely fine. From a protecting the peaceful legacy we have enjoyed under NATO for decades to come point of view however, it is a clear escalation in risk, that ultimately benefits Putin the most.
    An ambivalent America also increases the risk of nuclear war. Avoiding it is rooted in the expectation an attack on (say) the Baltics or Taiwan would result in a US military response. If the calculation becomes that a response is doubtful it makes such an attack more likely. Then you've taken that first step on the escalator.
    Hence my proposal for restructuring public services in the U.K.

    If the traffic wardens and the CCF at the local schools have tactical nuclear weapons, then we can really democratise defence.
    Yes let's all have one. Go totally and utterly MAD. No more crime no more violence.
    CCF?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QL3T1HuKJI
    Ah yes. "If". Paris 68 in an English public school. Sort of.

    I recall thinking it a bit pseudy. A better drama in that setting and period imo was on tv and called Good and Bad at Games. A study of the long term mental impact of bullying (are you listening, Nigel Farage?) although the scene which has stayed with me to this day was a pleasant one showing a group of boys in their dorm playing air guitar to Badge by Cream.
    Good and Bad at Games was written by William Boyd, probably my favourite or second favourite author (competing with J L Carr). Having Badge as the theme song just compounded it. That song is eternally linked to being dumped by my first girlfriend. Oh the pain of rejection!

    On the subject header, personally I think those are stupid odds, Reform have peaked, the inconsistencies in Farage will begin to show - he can't play to both his left and right. The Tories I suspect will comfortably beat the LD's. Has nobody commented that despite the intense unpopularity of both the traditional big parties, the LD share in polling has not changed. Davey is a really poor leader and his head honcho's Cooper and Moran just come over as bossy schoolmistresses.

    The short-odds favourite only comes in if the 1st past the post produces some very strange results.
    Well I'm sorry to have brought that all back. Her loss, I'm sure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,188
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  • isamisam Posts: 43,177
    Con-Lab crossover

    The Conservatives are polling at 20% for the first time since the Local Elections - with Reform and the LDs at recent lows.

    ➡️ RFM: 29.3% (Lowest since Jul)
    🌹 LAB: 20.5%
    🌳 CON: 20.0% (Highest Since Apr)
    🔶 LDM: 12.5% (Lowest Since Feb)
    🌍 GRN: 12.2%

    electionmaps.uk/polling/vi





    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1996939225749406150?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
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