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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If LAB does come top in the Euros then he should send a thank you note to Tony Blair

In all the time that Tony Blair led the LAB party there was only one set of national elections where victory eluded him – the 1999 and 2004 contests for the European Parliament.

Read the full story here

Anorak

Boosting turnout = a good thing, even if it benefits Labour
Postal vote = a bad thing, as Tower Hamlets shows
Doing a backroom deal with Ken = tells all you need to know about Tony

TGOHF

4th - he let Brown become leader who still makes Ed look less crap than he would have...

Anorak

FPT:

Socrates said:

Anorak said:

Sean_F said:

Anorak said:

MikeK said:

The new Dad's Army also recruits from the the young and the not so young.
Splendid advert and leaflet from UKIP:

Who do you think you are kidding Mr Cameron? Only UKIP will stand up for Brits and put our interests above the EU pic.twitter.com/f0AJu0wzY6

— David Jones (@DavidJo52951945) April 5, 2014

Yeah, that'll get the under-40s fired up. Great reference to a comedy that stopped being made in 1977. They should do a 'Terry and June or 'The Good Life' spoof next.

Gettin' down wi' da kids, innit.

On current polling, UKIP should win c.20% of the vote among voters aged 18-40 on May 22nd.

Which only goes to show that "some mothers do 'ave 'em" (try that one too, Betty).

Yeah, that or the fact that young people are feeling it hardest from competing with an influx of cheap labour from the continent.
To be serious for a moment, I think it's mixture of that and UKIP being the only protest party in most areas.

TGOHF

Lolz

Fraser JB Walker ‏@fraserjbwalker 5m
UKIP has just been banned from NUS, I am advised. More to follow.

RodCrosby

TGOHF said:

Lolz

Fraser JB Walker ‏@fraserjbwalker 5m
UKIP has just been banned from NUS, I am advised. More to follow.

Wankers

rcs1000

Free money on Betfair. Scottish independence turnout to be more 75%: I'd say that's a racing certainty (better than evens, for sure)

peter_from_putney

Paddy Power is the only bookie currently running a book on the next Cabinet Minister to leave office, for which they have Maria Miller as the hot 1/4 favourite.

Why is Patrick McLoughlin rated the 5/2 second favourite ..... have I missed a news story about him?

rcs1000

TGOHF said:

Lolz

Fraser JB Walker ‏@fraserjbwalker 5m
UKIP has just been banned from NUS, I am advised. More to follow.

If I was a member of UKIP I would be very flattered to be banned by the NUS. I'm struggling to think of a more nastily self centred bunch.

AndyJS

FPT:

"Looking at the figures I formed the impression that it was Tory voters who stayed at home in 1997 and 2001, and came out again in 2010./
Has anyone actually researched this?"

Yes, but most of those voters have started voting again in 2005 and 2010. It's the former Labour voters from 1997 and earlier who are still staying at home. Until now, maybe.

Neil

TGOHF said:

Lolz

Fraser JB Walker ‏@fraserjbwalker 5m
UKIP has just been banned from NUS, I am advised. More to follow.

Lucky UKIP!

RodCrosby

First ever Address of an Irish Head of State to the British Parliament coming up...

Demonstrates the sharp difference between the Irish divorce and anything which is on the cards for Scotland...

Socrates

Neil said:

TGOHF said:

Lolz

Fraser JB Walker ‏@fraserjbwalker 5m
UKIP has just been banned from NUS, I am advised. More to follow.

Lucky UKIP!

What does that mean? UKIP members can't join them?

Stuart_Dickson

IndyRef betting:

Ladbrokes - Yes vote percentage

29% or less 14/1
30-35% 8/1
35-40% 9/2
40-45% 5/2
45-50% 4/1
50-55% 5/1
Over 55% 5/1

peter_from_putney

rcs1000 said:

TGOHF said:

Lolz

Fraser JB Walker ‏@fraserjbwalker 5m
UKIP has just been banned from NUS, I am advised. More to follow.

If I was a member of UKIP I would be very flattered to be banned by the NUS. I'm struggling to think of a more nastily self centred bunch.

Indeed, the Tories must feel quite miffed.

Stuart_Dickson

DaemonBarber said:

MarkSenior said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

DaemonBarber said:

SeanT said:

Did that blog on Scottish indyref. NAMING THE GUILTY MEN

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100266761/if-scotland-leaves-we-can-blame-heath-letwin-cameron-and-labour/

Nice use of the word: fissiparous.

Difficult to disagree with the nominations for Blame Monkeys.

But I think you also have to give some credit to Salmond for making the SNP more than just a protest party, but actually a credible, successful and popular party of government.

Please do not expect the numpties around here to understand your point. They know next to nothing about public life in Scotland, and they care even less. The entire concept of "a credible, successful and popular party of government" is foreign to them.

That other separatist party PQ thought themselves a credible successful and popular party of government until the voters told them otherwise yesterday .

Credible: They were elected.
Successful: They were re-elected on a landslide
Popular: They remain well positioned in the polls

Yes politics changes and so do governments. None of the above are set in stone, but they are true now.

Mark Senior is not interested in hard facts. He is a ninny babbling stories to himself in the corner of the room. He is to be pitied rather than be reasoned with.

AveryLP

The good news from the IMF
Projected GDP growth for the G7 countries as updated today.

International Monetary Fund                                      
Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections               
(Percent change unless noted otherwise)                          
               ==================================================
               |   Year over Year  ||Diff. from||  Q4 over Q4   |
               |Outturns |Estimates||Jan 2014  ||Out. |Estimates|
               |---------|---------||----------||-----|---------|
               |2012 2013|2014 2015||2014  2015|| 2013|2014 2015|
               |-------------------||----------||-----|---------|
World Output   | 3.2  3.0  3.6  3.9||–0.1  –0.1||  3.3  3.6  3.7|
Adv. Economies | 1.4  1.3  2.2  2.3|| 0.0   0.0||  2.1  2.1  2.4|
United States  | 2.8  1.9  2.8  3.0|| 0.0   0.0||  2.6  2.7  3.0|
Euro Area      |–0.7 –0.5  1.2  1.5|| 0.1   0.1||  0.5  1.3  1.5|
  Germany      | 0.9  0.5  1.7  1.6|| 0.2   0.1||  1.4  1.6  1.7|
  France       | 0.0  0.3  1.0  1.5|| 0.1   0.0||  0.8  1.2  1.6|
  Italy        |–2.4 –1.9  0.6  1.1|| 0.0   0.0|| –0.9  0.7  1.4|
  Spain        |–1.6 –1.2  0.9  1.0|| 0.3   0.2|| –0.2  1.1  0.9|
Japan          | 1.4  1.5  1.4  1.0||–0.3   0.0||  2.5  1.2  0.5|
               |-------------------||----------||---------------|
United Kingdom | 0.3  1.8  2.9  2.5|| 0.4   0.3||  2.7  3.0  1.9|
               |-------------------||----------||---------------|
Canada         | 1.7  2.0  2.3  2.4|| 0.1   0.0||  2.7  2.1  2.4|
Oth. Adv. Econ.| 1.9  2.3  3.0  3.2|| 0.1   0.0||  2.9  2.7  3.6|
                =================================================

RodCrosby

Socrates said:

What does that mean? UKIP members can't join them?

Let me guess. The mantra hasn't changed from the 1970s...

'No platform for racists and sexists!' ?

Neil

peter_from_putney said:

rcs1000 said:

TGOHF said:

Lolz

Fraser JB Walker ‏@fraserjbwalker 5m
UKIP has just been banned from NUS, I am advised. More to follow.

If I was a member of UKIP I would be very flattered to be banned by the NUS. I'm struggling to think of a more nastily self centred bunch.

Indeed, the Tories must feel quite miffed.

Is there a form I can fill out to apply to be banned by the NUS?

Stuart_Dickson

Bond_James_Bond said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

the great affairs of public life in Scotland

The what?

For someone who endlessly mocks Scottish public life, you seem terribly interested in it. Some would say obsessed. Why?

taffys

'No platform for racists and sexists!' ?

Led by the usual bunch of well off, public school educated lefties looking to become politicos or journos.

AndyJS

Middlesex Anti-Racist action are focusing on UKIP re. the London local elections:

http://www.chiswickchat.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=42&start=40#p336

DavidL

AveryLP said:

The good news from the IMF
Projected GDP growth for the G7 countries as updated today.

International Monetary Fund                                      
Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections               
(Percent change unless noted otherwise)                          
               ==================================================
               |   Year over Year  ||Diff. from||  Q4 over Q4   |
               |Outturns |Estimates||Jan 2014  ||Out. |Estimates|
               |---------|---------||----------||-----|---------|
               |2012 2013|2014 2015||2014  2015|| 2013|2014 2015|
               |-------------------||----------||-----|---------|
World Output   | 3.2  3.0  3.6  3.9||–0.1  –0.1||  3.3  3.6  3.7|
Adv. Economies | 1.4  1.3  2.2  2.3|| 0.0   0.0||  2.1  2.1  2.4|
United States  | 2.8  1.9  2.8  3.0|| 0.0   0.0||  2.6  2.7  3.0|
Euro Area      |–0.7 –0.5  1.2  1.5|| 0.1   0.1||  0.5  1.3  1.5|
  Germany      | 0.9  0.5  1.7  1.6|| 0.2   0.1||  1.4  1.6  1.7|
  France       | 0.0  0.3  1.0  1.5|| 0.1   0.0||  0.8  1.2  1.6|
  Italy        |–2.4 –1.9  0.6  1.1|| 0.0   0.0|| –0.9  0.7  1.4|
  Spain        |–1.6 –1.2  0.9  1.0|| 0.3   0.2|| –0.2  1.1  0.9|
Japan          | 1.4  1.5  1.4  1.0||–0.3   0.0||  2.5  1.2  0.5|
               |-------------------||----------||---------------|
United Kingdom | 0.3  1.8  2.9  2.5|| 0.4   0.3||  2.7  3.0  1.9|
               |-------------------||----------||---------------|
Canada         | 1.7  2.0  2.3  2.4|| 0.1   0.0||  2.7  2.1  2.4|
Oth. Adv. Econ.| 1.9  2.3  3.0  3.2|| 0.1   0.0||  2.9  2.7  3.6|
                =================================================

As I said on the previous thread it would indeed be good news if the IMF had shown any abilities in forecasting at all. Which they haven't. IIRC they were the ones who downgraded UK growth early last year when the economy was already showing clear signs of going into overdrive. They added to the idiocy by warning that fiscal consolidation was going to stop growth.

Unless growth in 2013 is further upgraded in September with the reworking of the books 2.9% in 2014 looks a smidgeon high for me but it should be a good year.

MikeK

Only UKIP defends The UK.

Who do you think you are kidding Mr Cameron? Only UKIP will stand up for Brits and put our interests above the EU pic.twitter.com/f0AJu0wzY6

— David Jones (@DavidJo52951945) April 5, 2014

Stuart_Dickson

rcs1000 said:

Free money on Betfair. Scottish independence turnout to be more 75%: I'd say that's a racing certainty (better than evens, for sure)

I filled my pockets when that market was launched. The high turnout prices were ridiculously long. Shame about the crap liquidity; I assume it is much better now?

malcolmg

FPT
Scott_P said:

An SNP attempt to downplay Alex Salmond's five-star hotel bills has backfired spectacularly after it emerged he stayed at luxury accommodation singled out by Nicola Sturgeon for direct criticism.

The Deputy First Minister recently defended Mr Salmond's controversial oversees expense claims by saying he would not get caught staying at New York's upmarket Benjamin Hotel like Jack McConnell, his Labour predecessor.

But The Telegraph can disclose Mr Salmond has in fact stayed at The Benjamin, spending three nights in a king suite there during a taxpayer-funded trip to the United States in October 2007.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10751287/Expenses-Alex-Salmond-stayed-at-luxury-hotel-publicly-condemned-by-Nicola-Sturgeon.html

Ha Ha Ha , no wonder you losers are circling the drain , nothing more important like child poverty , unemployment , bedroom tax etc to focus on. What a bunch of diddies.

shadsy

rcs1000 said:

Free money on Betfair. Scottish independence turnout to be more 75%: I'd say that's a racing certainty (better than evens, for sure)

I haven't really given this market much thought, but why are you so confident? 75% seems quite high to me.

Richard_Nabavi

On topic: Although this is the point in the local election cycle which is more favourable to Labour than most years (because it includes all the London borough seats as well as one third of the metropolitan district seats and 17 unitary authorities), it shouldn't be overstated. The proportion of votes cast in the last two equivalent elections was:

2006: Con 39%, Lab 26%, LD 25%
2010: Con 35%, Lab 27%, LD 26%

2010 was rather special, being GE day, but that probably helped Labour in the locals by boosting turnout amongst Labour supporters. Overall, it's not obvious that the May 22nd local elections will provide a big boost for Labour in the Euros, and the outcome remains hard to predict.

TGOHF

malcolmg said:

FPT
Scott_P said:

An SNP attempt to downplay Alex Salmond's five-star hotel bills has backfired spectacularly after it emerged he stayed at luxury accommodation singled out by Nicola Sturgeon for direct criticism.

The Deputy First Minister recently defended Mr Salmond's controversial oversees expense claims by saying he would not get caught staying at New York's upmarket Benjamin Hotel like Jack McConnell, his Labour predecessor.

But The Telegraph can disclose Mr Salmond has in fact stayed at The Benjamin, spending three nights in a king suite there during a taxpayer-funded trip to the United States in October 2007.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10751287/Expenses-Alex-Salmond-stayed-at-luxury-hotel-publicly-condemned-by-Nicola-Sturgeon.html

Ha Ha Ha , no wonder you losers are circling the drain , nothing more important like child poverty , unemployment , bedroom tax etc to focus on. What a bunch of diddies.

All smiles here Malc- looks like we wont be picking up the curry and trews tab for much longer...

Neil

shadsy said:

rcs1000 said:

Free money on Betfair. Scottish independence turnout to be more 75%: I'd say that's a racing certainty (better than evens, for sure)

I haven't really given this market much thought, but why are you so confident? 75% seems quite high to me.

Higher than either of the devolution referendums.

TheWatcher

malcolmg said:

FPT
Scott_P said:

An SNP attempt to downplay Alex Salmond's five-star hotel bills has backfired spectacularly after it emerged he stayed at luxury accommodation singled out by Nicola Sturgeon for direct criticism.

The Deputy First Minister recently defended Mr Salmond's controversial oversees expense claims by saying he would not get caught staying at New York's upmarket Benjamin Hotel like Jack McConnell, his Labour predecessor.

But The Telegraph can disclose Mr Salmond has in fact stayed at The Benjamin, spending three nights in a king suite there during a taxpayer-funded trip to the United States in October 2007.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10751287/Expenses-Alex-Salmond-stayed-at-luxury-hotel-publicly-condemned-by-Nicola-Sturgeon.html

Ha Ha Ha , no wonder you losers are circling the drain , nothing more important like child poverty , unemployment , bedroom tax etc to focus on. What a bunch of diddies.

Westminster troughing = Bad for Scotland.

Eck's troughing = I see no expenses Jimmy.

Sunil_Prasannan

shadsy said:

rcs1000 said:

Free money on Betfair. Scottish independence turnout to be more 75%: I'd say that's a racing certainty (better than evens, for sure)

I haven't really given this market much thought, but why are you so confident? 75% seems quite high to me.

Some "UK-related" sovereignty referendum turnouts:

Northern Ireland (1973) - 58.7% (97.9% 'yes' for UK - SDLP urged a boycott, IRA insurgency at its height)
Gibraltar (2002) - 87.9% (98.5% 'no' to shared sovereignty with Spain)
Falklands (2013) - 91.9% (99.7% 'yes' to current UK status)

Scott_P

TheWatcher said:

Westminster troughing = Bad for Scotland.

Eck's troughing = I see no expenses Jimmy.

Of course Eck was no slouch when it came to Westminster troughing

isam

peter_from_putney said:

Paddy Power is the only bookie currently running a book on the next Cabinet Minister to leave office, for which they have Maria Miller as the hot 1/4 favourite.

Why is Patrick McLoughlin rated the 5/2 second favourite ..... have I missed a news story about him?

Just topped up on their 16s Thurrock.. Lads have cut it to 7s from 10s

TGOHF

So the Irish get a first state visit today - good show.

By my maths the Scottish president should pencil in a date for 2106 ?

AndyJS

Stuart_Dickson said:

rcs1000 said:

Free money on Betfair. Scottish independence turnout to be more 75%: I'd say that's a racing certainty (better than evens, for sure)

I filled my pockets when that market was launched. The high turnout prices were ridiculously long. Shame about the crap liquidity; I assume it is much better now?

You would think turnout would be over 75% for such an important vote, but somehow I'm sceptical. It was just 50% at the last Scottish Parliament election.

RodCrosby

Breaking: pro-Russian separatists take 60 hostages and mine a building with explosives in Ukrainian city of Luhansk...

Neil

TGOHF said:

So the Irish get a first state visit today - good show.

By my maths the Scottish president should pencil in a date for 2106 ?

Keep up, Scotland and the rUK will share a Head of State.

rcs1000

shadsy said:

rcs1000 said:

Free money on Betfair. Scottish independence turnout to be more 75%: I'd say that's a racing certainty (better than evens, for sure)

I haven't really given this market much thought, but why are you so confident? 75% seems quite high to me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1980
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995

1995 had a 93.5% turnout.

Why would Scottish independence have a much lower turnout. This is - after all - a much bigger deal than a general election.

And the closer it looks, the higher the turnout will be.

Richard_Nabavi

Correction: Not sure if my last post is right - those are the figures from Wikipedia and they don't make it clear if they are actual vote shares or notional national equivalent shares.

TGOHF

Neil said:

TGOHF said:

So the Irish get a first state visit today - good show.

By my maths the Scottish president should pencil in a date for 2106 ?

Keep up, Scotland and the rUK will share a Head of State.

Well you'd think that but the SNP have flip flopped on it so many times who can be certain ?

Sunil_Prasannan

RodCrosby said:

Breaking: pro-Russian separatists take 60 hostages and mine a building with explosives in Ukrainian city of Luhansk...

That'd be 'Lugansk' in Russian, Rod!

TheWatcher

RodCrosby said:

Breaking: pro-Russian separatists take 60 hostages and mine a building with explosives in Ukrainian city of Luhansk...

A city 20 clicks from the Russian border.

malcolmg

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

FPT
Scott_P said:

An SNP attempt to downplay Alex Salmond's five-star hotel bills has backfired spectacularly after it emerged he stayed at luxury accommodation singled out by Nicola Sturgeon for direct criticism.

The Deputy First Minister recently defended Mr Salmond's controversial oversees expense claims by saying he would not get caught staying at New York's upmarket Benjamin Hotel like Jack McConnell, his Labour predecessor.

But The Telegraph can disclose Mr Salmond has in fact stayed at The Benjamin, spending three nights in a king suite there during a taxpayer-funded trip to the United States in October 2007.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10751287/Expenses-Alex-Salmond-stayed-at-luxury-hotel-publicly-condemned-by-Nicola-Sturgeon.html

Ha Ha Ha , no wonder you losers are circling the drain , nothing more important like child poverty , unemployment , bedroom tax etc to focus on. What a bunch of diddies.

All smiles here Malc- looks like we wont be picking up the curry and trews tab for much longer...

Looks very like it Flash, we are planning for the cataclysm after hearing the speech of the First Horseman of the Apocalypse to ride out of the Lords to support NO.

AndyJS

Useful information on the local elections posted by David Boothroyd on the VoteUK discussion forum:

http://www.vote-2012.proboards.com/post/149967/thread

isam

Farage saying what the anti Kippers don't want to believe... UKIP are not against immigration

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ukip-is-not-antiimmigration-we-are-antiuncontrolled-immigration-9246861.html

Sunil_Prasannan

TGOHF said:

So the Irish get a first state visit today - good show.

By my maths the Scottish president should pencil in a date for 2106 ?

Don't forget the Irish Head of State was HM George V until 1937 (or George VI until 1949 depending on your viewpoint!)

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

TheWatcher said:

Westminster troughing = Bad for Scotland.

Eck's troughing = I see no expenses Jimmy.

Of course Eck was no slouch when it came to Westminster troughing

Aw Diddums Mutt and Jeff are striking up a friendship.

AndyJS

RodCrosby said:

Breaking: pro-Russian separatists take 60 hostages and mine a building with explosives in Ukrainian city of Luhansk...

Nice to see the Russians invoking due process, democratic methods, etc. once again in pursuit of their aims.

RodCrosby

Sunil_Prasannan said:

shadsy said:

rcs1000 said:

Free money on Betfair. Scottish independence turnout to be more 75%: I'd say that's a racing certainty (better than evens, for sure)

I haven't really given this market much thought, but why are you so confident? 75% seems quite high to me.

Some "UK-related" sovereignty referendum turnouts:

Northern Ireland (1973) - 58.7% (97.9% 'yes' for UK - SDLP urged a boycott, IRA insurgency at its height)
Gibraltar (2002) - 87.9% (98.5% 'no' to shared sovereignty with Spain)
Falklands (2013) - 91.9% (99.7% 'yes' to current UK status)

Problem is the Scottish register may be so inaccurate that the maximum possible turnout might be a fair distance from 100%.

IIRC, the max UK turnout would be around 90%.

TGOHF

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

FPT
Scott_P said:

An SNP attempt to downplay Alex Salmond's five-star hotel bills has backfired spectacularly after it emerged he stayed at luxury accommodation singled out by Nicola Sturgeon for direct criticism.

The Deputy First Minister recently defended Mr Salmond's controversial oversees expense claims by saying he would not get caught staying at New York's upmarket Benjamin Hotel like Jack McConnell, his Labour predecessor.

But The Telegraph can disclose Mr Salmond has in fact stayed at The Benjamin, spending three nights in a king suite there during a taxpayer-funded trip to the United States in October 2007.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10751287/Expenses-Alex-Salmond-stayed-at-luxury-hotel-publicly-condemned-by-Nicola-Sturgeon.html

Ha Ha Ha , no wonder you losers are circling the drain , nothing more important like child poverty , unemployment , bedroom tax etc to focus on. What a bunch of diddies.

All smiles here Malc- looks like we wont be picking up the curry and trews tab for much longer...

Looks very like it Flash, we are planning for the cataclysm after hearing the speech of the First Horseman of the Apocalypse to ride out of the Lords to support NO.

I'm coming to terms with it Malc- whats not to like - no Labour governments ever, dynamic right wing government, lots of financial service companies coming down south - could be a golden age for the English economy.

isam

I actually went to a UKIP drink up last night, my first political soiree! Have to say that it wasn't full of old fogeys and I was far from the youngest there at 39.

The media team are mostly in their early 20s I would have thought.. one of the girls invited me to go for a drink with a few of them in Kings Cross and I missed out because I got talking to a bloke about the Farage/Clegg debate... a real Dumb and Dumber moment

Carnyx

RodCrosby said:

First ever Address of an Irish Head of State to the British Parliament coming up...

Demonstrates the sharp difference between the Irish divorce and anything which is on the cards for Scotland...

Mphm - which direction do you see the difference lying, time-wise?

[edited to remove unintended and possibly pejorative double entendre]

AveryLP

DavidL said:

AveryLP said:

The good news from the IMF
Projected GDP growth for the G7 countries as updated today.

As I said on the previous thread it would indeed be good news if the IMF had shown any abilities in forecasting at all. Which they haven't. IIRC they were the ones who downgraded UK growth early last year when the economy was already showing clear signs of going into overdrive. They added to the idiocy by warning that fiscal consolidation was going to stop growth.

Unless growth in 2013 is further upgraded in September with the reworking of the books 2.9% in 2014 looks a smidgeon high for me but it should be a good year.

David

I am not certain how the IMF calculate annual GDP growth. I did work it out last year: from memory I think it is the sum of four Quarter on same Quarter last year growth rates. I know the IMF method differs from the OECD and ONS.

The SWIFT forecasts which I posted yesterday were forecasting an annual growth rate of 2.9% for 2014 Q1 on a Quarter on previous Quarter growth of 0.6%. The same annual rate applied to their nowcast last month on a slightly higher QoQ growth rate of 0.7%.

So it looks like the forecast of 2.9% would accommodate a 0.6%-0.7% average growth per quarter through the calendar year. That doesn't look unreasonably optimistic to me. It falls betwen the the OBR forecast of 0.5% per quarter and the BoE forecast of 3.0% annual growth.

Sean_F

Neil said:

peter_from_putney said:

rcs1000 said:

TGOHF said:

Lolz

Fraser JB Walker ‏@fraserjbwalker 5m
UKIP has just been banned from NUS, I am advised. More to follow.

If I was a member of UKIP I would be very flattered to be banned by the NUS. I'm struggling to think of a more nastily self centred bunch.

Indeed, the Tories must feel quite miffed.

Is there a form I can fill out to apply to be banned by the NUS?

It's a badge of honour to be banned by NUS.

Bond_James_Bond

I have to laugh at the way malcolmg, who unquestionably in real life sounds like Prince Charles, lards his posts with abstruse bits of Scotchspeak in an apparent attempt to sound more authentic.

After Googling for a few seconds I reckon I have identified how he does it. He finds his usual post wherever he has it saved written in normal English and pastes it into http://www.whoohoo.co.uk/scottish-translator.asp

And voila! Instant ethnic Scotch!

so "You English bastards saved our little arses and subsidise us so obviously we'll never forgive you" becomes, courtesy of scottish-translator, "Ye sassenach bastards saved uir wee arses an' subsidise us sae obvioosly we'll ne'er forgife ye."

In fact, it seems likeliest that the PB Nats are all actually 'bots from Somerset.

AndyJS

isam said:

I actually went to a UKIP drink up last night, my first political soiree! Have to say that it wasn't full of old fogeys and I was far from the youngest there at 39.

The media team are mostly in their early 20s I would have thought.. one of the girls invited me to go for a drink with a few of them in Kings Cross and I missed out because I got talking to a bloke about the Farage/Clegg debate... a real Dumb and Dumber moment

A lot of commentators seem to think UKIP will do badly in London in the Euro elections. They seem to forget the party polled 10.7% in 2009, so something like 15-20% is entirely possible.

Sunil_Prasannan

isam said:

I actually went to a UKIP drink up last night, my first political soiree! Have to say that it wasn't full of old fogeys and I was far from the youngest there at 39.

The media team are mostly in their early 20s I would have thought.. one of the girls invited me to go for a drink with a few of them in Kings Cross and I missed out because I got talking to a bloke about the Farage/Clegg debate... a real Dumb and Dumber moment

Did they ask you to be their 'oil boy'?



www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLB-uMPj27s

peter_from_putney

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

Paddy Power is the only bookie currently running a book on the next Cabinet Minister to leave office, for which they have Maria Miller as the hot 1/4 favourite.

Why is Patrick McLoughlin rated the 5/2 second favourite ..... have I missed a news story about him?

Just topped up on their 16s Thurrock.. Lads have cut it to 7s from 10s

PP limited me to a maximum bet of £1.65 which I took!

MikeK

isam said:

I actually went to a UKIP drink up last night, my first political soiree! Have to say that it wasn't full of old fogeys and I was far from the youngest there at 39.

The media team are mostly in their early 20s I would have thought.. one of the girls invited me to go for a drink with a few of them in Kings Cross and I missed out because I got talking to a bloke about the Farage/Clegg debate... a real Dumb and Dumber moment

Not to worry isam, there will be plenty of UKIP parties to go to come the evening of 22nd May.
If only I was 30 years younger. Sigh!!!!!!

isam

Sean_F said:

Neil said:

peter_from_putney said:

rcs1000 said:

TGOHF said:

Lolz

Fraser JB Walker ‏@fraserjbwalker 5m
UKIP has just been banned from NUS, I am advised. More to follow.

If I was a member of UKIP I would be very flattered to be banned by the NUS. I'm struggling to think of a more nastily self centred bunch.

Indeed, the Tories must feel quite miffed.

Is there a form I can fill out to apply to be banned by the NUS?

It's a badge of honour to be banned by NUS.

I went to Brighton Uni 4 years ago, and the lecturers were almost to a man, Marxists or SWP members. They inflict their dogma on the students in such a unbending, embarrassingly loony left 80s way it is embarrassing.

I wrote 8 essays in my year there. Got 72%, 68%, 66%, 64%, 64%, 62%,62%...

then I wrote one that was anti immigration...

38%

...then I left!

Anorak

MikeK said:

isam said:

I actually went to a UKIP drink up last night, my first political soiree! Have to say that it wasn't full of old fogeys and I was far from the youngest there at 39.

The media team are mostly in their early 20s I would have thought.. one of the girls invited me to go for a drink with a few of them in Kings Cross and I missed out because I got talking to a bloke about the Farage/Clegg debate... a real Dumb and Dumber moment

Not to worry isam, there will be plenty of UKIP parties to go to come the evening of 22nd May.
If only I was 30 years younger. Sigh!!!!!!

You'd be 45?

AveryLP

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RodCrosby said:

Breaking: pro-Russian separatists take 60 hostages and mine a building with explosives in Ukrainian city of Luhansk...

That'd be 'Lugansk' in Russian, Rod!

As in Gyde Park, Comrade Sunilsky.

TheWatcher

Bond_James_Bond said:

I have to laugh at the way malcolmg, who unquestionably in real life sounds like Prince Charles, lards his posts with abstruse bits of Scotchspeak in an apparent attempt to sound more authentic.

After Googling for a few seconds I reckon I have identified how he does it. He finds his usual post wherever he has it saved written in normal English and pastes it into http://www.whoohoo.co.uk/scottish-translator.asp

And voila! Instant ethnic Scotch!

so "You English bastards saved our little arses and subsidise us so obviously we'll never forgive you" becomes, courtesy of scottish-translator, "Ye sassenach bastards saved uir wee arses an' subsidise us sae obvioosly we'll ne'er forgife ye."

In fact, it seems likeliest that the PB Nats are all actually 'bots from Somerset.

I think you're correct.

'Alec Salmond is th' glorioos leader who's actions main ne'er be questioned by maur sassenach mortals.'

Spooky.

'Billin' th' taxpayer fur curry an' tartan breeks is th' reit ay th' divine leader.'

malcolmg

NO campaign are getting ever more desperate , having to resort to violence.

Nationalist MSP 'assaulted' during pub debate on independence
http://news.stv.tv/tayside/270936-david-torrance-msp-allegedly-attacked-in-novar-bar-in-kirkcaldy/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Carnyx

Bond_James_Bond said:

I have to laugh at the way malcolmg, who unquestionably in real life sounds like Prince Charles, lards his posts with abstruse bits of Scotchspeak in an apparent attempt to sound more authentic.

After Googling for a few seconds I reckon I have identified how he does it. He finds his usual post wherever he has it saved written in normal English and pastes it into http://www.whoohoo.co.uk/scottish-translator.asp

And voila! Instant ethnic Scotch!

so "You English bastards saved our little arses and subsidise us so obviously we'll never forgive you" becomes, courtesy of scottish-translator, "Ye sassenach bastards saved uir wee arses an' subsidise us sae obvioosly we'll ne'er forgife ye."

In fact, it seems likeliest that the PB Nats are all actually 'bots from Somerset.

Mr Bond, I can assure you that, much as I love Somerset and holidays there, not to mention the cider and the Old Spot pork with apple sauce, I am not a bot from that county or indeed anywhere else. And that one can perfectly well combine a patrician accent and a knowledge of one's national language. For instance, I do not speak with a Glaswegian, or Doric, or Highland accent, or for that matter a patrician one, but I can instantly tell you that the correct translation of your usage of 'subsidise' is 'reive oor pooches toom'.

And you should perhaps be worrying that the site also offers Mockney and Scouser. Who else on PB has been using it?

TGOHF

Carnyx said:

RodCrosby said:

First ever Address of an Irish Head of State to the British Parliament coming up...

Demonstrates the sharp difference between the Irish divorce and anything which is on the cards for Scotland...

Mphm - which direction do you see the difference lying, time-wise?

[edited to remove unintended and possibly pejorative double entendre]

The divorces will be similar - massive brain drain to follow as the brightest and the best flee for better days.

isam

peter_from_putney said:

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

Paddy Power is the only bookie currently running a book on the next Cabinet Minister to leave office, for which they have Maria Miller as the hot 1/4 favourite.

Why is Patrick McLoughlin rated the 5/2 second favourite ..... have I missed a news story about him?

Just topped up on their 16s Thurrock.. Lads have cut it to 7s from 10s

PP limited me to a maximum bet of £1.65 which I took!

Cycled, with a flat tyre, to Hornchurch shop... was like pulling teeth

Me "Can I have a price on UKIP to win Thurrock at the next GE please? Its 16/1, its on your website

Cashier: "Ok ill just find it on the system"

10 minutes later...

Me "Go to politics... press UK politics... constituency betting... Thurrock... UKIP...."

Cashier "16/1"

Me "thank you very much!"

To be fair they didn't even refer it, and when I backed them in there a couple of weeks ago the girl couldn't find the price and took my word for it!

Carnyx

TGOHF said:

Carnyx said:

RodCrosby said:

First ever Address of an Irish Head of State to the British Parliament coming up...

Demonstrates the sharp difference between the Irish divorce and anything which is on the cards for Scotland...

Mphm - which direction do you see the difference lying, time-wise?

[edited to remove unintended and possibly pejorative double entendre]

The divorces will be similar - massive brain drain to follow as the brightest and the best flee for better days.

Was really asking Mr Crosby as it was his phrasing that can be read either way ...

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

Cashier: "Ok ill just find it on the system"

10 minutes later...

Me "Go to politics... press UK politics... constituency betting... Thurrock... UKIP...."

Just as well it wasn't a Ladbrokes' shop!

isam

Sunil_Prasannan said:

isam said:

I actually went to a UKIP drink up last night, my first political soiree! Have to say that it wasn't full of old fogeys and I was far from the youngest there at 39.

The media team are mostly in their early 20s I would have thought.. one of the girls invited me to go for a drink with a few of them in Kings Cross and I missed out because I got talking to a bloke about the Farage/Clegg debate... a real Dumb and Dumber moment

Did they ask you to be their 'oil boy'?



www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLB-uMPj27s

Haha not quite! But it would have been nice to have had the chance!

TheWatcher

malcolmg said:

NO campaign are getting ever more desperate , having to resort to violence.

Nationalist MSP 'assaulted' during pub debate on independence
http://news.stv.tv/tayside/270936-david-torrance-msp-allegedly-attacked-in-novar-bar-in-kirkcaldy/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Is it the same friendly and welcoming locals who rolled out the tartan carpet for Farage?

MikeK

Anorak said:

MikeK said:

isam said:

I actually went to a UKIP drink up last night, my first political soiree! Have to say that it wasn't full of old fogeys and I was far from the youngest there at 39.

The media team are mostly in their early 20s I would have thought.. one of the girls invited me to go for a drink with a few of them in Kings Cross and I missed out because I got talking to a bloke about the Farage/Clegg debate... a real Dumb and Dumber moment

Not to worry isam, there will be plenty of UKIP parties to go to come the evening of 22nd May.
If only I was 30 years younger. Sigh!!!!!!

You'd be 45?

No. I'd be 50, come April 30th.

malcolmg

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

malcolmg said:

FPT
Scott_P said:

An SNP attempt to downplay Alex Salmond's five-star hotel bills has backfired spectacularly after it emerged he stayed at luxury accommodation singled out by Nicola Sturgeon for direct criticism.

The Deputy First Minister recently defended Mr Salmond's controversial oversees expense claims by saying he would not get caught staying at New York's upmarket Benjamin Hotel like Jack McConnell, his Labour predecessor.

But The Telegraph can disclose Mr Salmond has in fact stayed at The Benjamin, spending three nights in a king suite there during a taxpayer-funded trip to the United States in October 2007.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10751287/Expenses-Alex-Salmond-stayed-at-luxury-hotel-publicly-condemned-by-Nicola-Sturgeon.html

Ha Ha Ha , no wonder you losers are circling the drain , nothing more important like child poverty , unemployment , bedroom tax etc to focus on. What a bunch of diddies.

All smiles here Malc- looks like we wont be picking up the curry and trews tab for much longer...

Looks very like it Flash, we are planning for the cataclysm after hearing the speech of the First Horseman of the Apocalypse to ride out of the Lords to support NO.

I'm coming to terms with it Malc- whats not to like - no Labour governments ever, dynamic right wing government, lots of financial service companies coming down south - could be a golden age for the English economy.

For sure it is a win win , a s long as Labour do not get back in in Scotland. That is my biggest concern.

Sunil_Prasannan

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RodCrosby said:

Breaking: pro-Russian separatists take 60 hostages and mine a building with explosives in Ukrainian city of Luhansk...

That'd be 'Lugansk' in Russian, Rod!

As in Gyde Park, Comrade Sunilsky.

Comrade Chancellor - there are differences between Ukrainian and Russian orthography:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_alphabet
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_alphabet

rcs1000

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

Paddy Power is the only bookie currently running a book on the next Cabinet Minister to leave office, for which they have Maria Miller as the hot 1/4 favourite.

Why is Patrick McLoughlin rated the 5/2 second favourite ..... have I missed a news story about him?

Just topped up on their 16s Thurrock.. Lads have cut it to 7s from 10s

PP limited me to a maximum bet of £1.65 which I took!

Cycled, with a flat tyre, to Hornchurch shop... was like pulling teeth

Me "Can I have a price on UKIP to win Thurrock at the next GE please? Its 16/1, its on your website

Cashier: "Ok ill just find it on the system"

10 minutes later...

Me "Go to politics... press UK politics... constituency betting... Thurrock... UKIP...."

Cashier "16/1"

Me "thank you very much!"

To be fair they didn't even refer it, and when I backed them in there a couple of weeks ago the girl couldn't find the price and took my word for it!

Even if you just lay it off at 4-1 on Betfair nearer the time, it'll be a profitable trade.

JosiasJessop

malcolmg said:

NO campaign are getting ever more desperate , having to resort to violence.

Nationalist MSP 'assaulted' during pub debate on independence
http://news.stv.tv/tayside/270936-david-torrance-msp-allegedly-attacked-in-novar-bar-in-kirkcaldy/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

A deplorable incident. But taking the action of one man - which may or may not have been prompted by the independence conversation - and tarring an entire campaign with it seems rather desperate.

isam

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

Paddy Power is the only bookie currently running a book on the next Cabinet Minister to leave office, for which they have Maria Miller as the hot 1/4 favourite.

Why is Patrick McLoughlin rated the 5/2 second favourite ..... have I missed a news story about him?

Just topped up on their 16s Thurrock.. Lads have cut it to 7s from 10s

PP limited me to a maximum bet of £1.65 which I took!

Cycled, with a flat tyre, to Hornchurch shop... was like pulling teeth

Me "Can I have a price on UKIP to win Thurrock at the next GE please? Its 16/1, its on your website

Cashier: "Ok ill just find it on the system"

10 minutes later...

Me "Go to politics... press UK politics... constituency betting... Thurrock... UKIP...."

Cashier "16/1"

Me "thank you very much!"

To be fair they didn't even refer it, and when I backed them in there a couple of weeks ago the girl couldn't find the price and took my word for it!

Even if you just lay it off at 4-1 on Betfair nearer the time, it'll be a profitable trade.

Yeah reckon it will shorten to about that if not shorter still

Spoke to the candidate at the drink last night, Tim Aker. He seems pretty confident of beating the Tory

Carnyx

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

NO campaign are getting ever more desperate , having to resort to violence.

Nationalist MSP 'assaulted' during pub debate on independence
http://news.stv.tv/tayside/270936-david-torrance-msp-allegedly-attacked-in-novar-bar-in-kirkcaldy/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Is it the same friendly and welcoming locals who rolled out the tartan carpet for Farage?

Of the two that were arrested re Mr Farage, one was a Labour or similar activist and the other was a chap from south of the border.

TGOHF

Danny better start looking for a seat south of the border...

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/how-danny-alexander-manoeuvring-succeed-nick-clegg

"The ambitious Lib Dem is positioning himself as the "continuity candidate" in a future leadership contest."

Sunil_Prasannan

TGOHF said:

Danny better start looking for a seat south of the border...

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/how-danny-alexander-manoeuvring-succeed-nick-clegg

"The ambitious Lib Dem is positioning himself as the "continuity candidate" in a future leadership contest."

The Continuity LibDems?

"They haven't gone away, you know!"

Neil

TGOHF said:

Danny better start looking for a seat south of the border...

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/how-danny-alexander-manoeuvring-succeed-nick-clegg

"The ambitious Lib Dem is positioning himself as the "continuity candidate" in a future leadership contest."

""This is Danny's team jockeying," he tells me."

Danny has a team?! Danny Alexander has a team?!

Carola

Re Miller - this doing the rounds on twitter:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5pGgzz4dZk&list=PLG8IrydigQfcOZJVitbBEAHtJL0T7I7_H

Charles

RodCrosby said:

Breaking: pro-Russian separatists take 60 hostages and mine a building with explosives in Ukrainian city of Luhansk...

Because, naturally, taking hostages is what you do when your safety is threatened.

Sadly for Ukraine, non-intervention by the West would be the rational thing to do if Russia invades another part of their sovereign territory. It also demonstrates the fundamental flaw about relying on the UN as the arbiter of "international law": if it's one of the veto holders breaking the rules there isn't a damn thing the organisation can do about it

dyedwoolie

isam said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

Paddy Power is the only bookie currently running a book on the next Cabinet Minister to leave office, for which they have Maria Miller as the hot 1/4 favourite.

Why is Patrick McLoughlin rated the 5/2 second favourite ..... have I missed a news story about him?

Just topped up on their 16s Thurrock.. Lads have cut it to 7s from 10s

PP limited me to a maximum bet of £1.65 which I took!

Cycled, with a flat tyre, to Hornchurch shop... was like pulling teeth

Me "Can I have a price on UKIP to win Thurrock at the next GE please? Its 16/1, its on your website

Cashier: "Ok ill just find it on the system"

10 minutes later...

Me "Go to politics... press UK politics... constituency betting... Thurrock... UKIP...."

Cashier "16/1"

Me "thank you very much!"

To be fair they didn't even refer it, and when I backed them in there a couple of weeks ago the girl couldn't find the price and took my word for it!

Even if you just lay it off at 4-1 on Betfair nearer the time, it'll be a profitable trade.

Yeah reckon it will shorten to about that if not shorter still

Spoke to the candidate at the drink last night, Tim Aker. He seems pretty confident of beating the Tory

Certainly value at that money. I'm waiting for Gt Yarmouth to come out. Broadland or Mid Norfolk might be outside Kipper shots, and if they can take from Labour as well as Chloe, Norwich North might turn into a three way.

JackW

@RodCrosby

FPT - You asked about the position of life peers who are Scots and Scottish hereditary peers should Scotland become independent.

Scots life peers are peers of the UK and accordingly if resident in the UK will still be members. IIRC Lord (Jim) Wallace has confirmed this.

As for Scottish hereditary peers the precedent set after Irish independence will be followed whereby those peers who currently enjoy only Scottish pre 1707 union titles will be allowed to remain in their lifetime.

AveryLP

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RodCrosby said:

Breaking: pro-Russian separatists take 60 hostages and mine a building with explosives in Ukrainian city of Luhansk...

That'd be 'Lugansk' in Russian, Rod!

As in Gyde Park, Comrade Sunilsky.

Comrade Chancellor - there are differences between Ukrainian and Russian orthography:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_alphabet
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_alphabet

Comrade

I see there is also an Euro-Ukrainian alphabet:
[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro-Ukrainian_alphabet ],
and,
even a Latin Ukrainian script:
[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Latin_alphabet ],
but,
I suspect these are only used for samizdat provocation by fascist capitalistniki like Socrates.

TheWatcher

Carnyx said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

NO campaign are getting ever more desperate , having to resort to violence.

Nationalist MSP 'assaulted' during pub debate on independence
http://news.stv.tv/tayside/270936-david-torrance-msp-allegedly-attacked-in-novar-bar-in-kirkcaldy/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Is it the same friendly and welcoming locals who rolled out the tartan carpet for Farage?

Of the two that were arrested re Mr Farage, one was a Labour or similar activist and the other was a chap from south of the border.

And the remainder, who weren't arrested?

(Your friend 'Wings' is from south of the border, so that's not really a get out).

dyedwoolie

Neil said:

TGOHF said:

Danny better start looking for a seat south of the border...

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/how-danny-alexander-manoeuvring-succeed-nick-clegg

"The ambitious Lib Dem is positioning himself as the "continuity candidate" in a future leadership contest."

""This is Danny's team jockeying," he tells me."

Danny has a team?! Danny Alexander has a team?!

When I get round to forming my progressive, fiscal prudence party he and Browne will jump on board with the rump orange bookers.
Just waiting for UKIPs mask to slip ;-)

Anorak

MikeK said:

Anorak said:

MikeK said:

isam said:

I actually went to a UKIP drink up last night, my first political soiree! Have to say that it wasn't full of old fogeys and I was far from the youngest there at 39.

The media team are mostly in their early 20s I would have thought.. one of the girls invited me to go for a drink with a few of them in Kings Cross and I missed out because I got talking to a bloke about the Farage/Clegg debate... a real Dumb and Dumber moment

Not to worry isam, there will be plenty of UKIP parties to go to come the evening of 22nd May.
If only I was 30 years younger. Sigh!!!!!!

You'd be 45?

No. I'd be 50, come April 30th.

That's a decent milestone! Well done, that man.

Bond_James_Bond

Carnyx said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

I have to laugh at the way malcolmg, who unquestionably in real life sounds like Prince Charles, lards his posts with abstruse bits of Scotchspeak in an apparent attempt to sound more authentic.

After Googling for a few seconds I reckon I have identified how he does it. He finds his usual post wherever he has it saved written in normal English and pastes it into http://www.whoohoo.co.uk/scottish-translator.asp

And voila! Instant ethnic Scotch!

so "You English bastards saved our little arses and subsidise us so obviously we'll never forgive you" becomes, courtesy of scottish-translator, "Ye sassenach bastards saved uir wee arses an' subsidise us sae obvioosly we'll ne'er forgife ye."

In fact, it seems likeliest that the PB Nats are all actually 'bots from Somerset.

Mr Bond, I can assure you that, much as I love Somerset and holidays there, not to mention the cider and the Old Spot pork with apple sauce, I am not a bot from that county or indeed anywhere else. And that one can perfectly well combine a patrician accent and a knowledge of one's national language. For instance, I do not speak with a Glaswegian, or Doric, or Highland accent, or for that matter a patrician one, but I can instantly tell you that the correct translation of your usage of 'subsidise' is 'reive oor pooches toom'.

And you should perhaps be worrying that the site also offers Mockney and Scouser. Who else on PB has been using it?

Indeed. There must be a risk that malcolmg will one day fatfinger the language button and inadvertently translate his usual post into Scouse, Brummie, or Ali G by mistake.

The notes on how to speak Scotch underneath are hilarious. Who knew that "The actors' trick for this dialect is to imagine that you have a rag in your mouth"?

Or as a true Scotchman might say, "Th' actors' trick fur thes dialect is tae imagine 'at ye hae a rag in yer gob."

Richard_Nabavi

*** Betting Post ***

Congratulations again to Shadsy for putting up such a big range of constituency bets.

Being a contrarian sort of chap, I started looking through in reverse alphabetical order, and my attention was drawn to:

Wyre Forest - National Health Action 8/1

This is tricky one to assess, but it looks to me like a much shorter shot than 8/1. Richard Taylor has said he's standing again (although there is some actuarial risk given that he'll be 80). What makes this particularly interesting is that his triumphant performances in 2001 and 2005 were helped by the LibDems standing aside to give him a free run. In 2010 they didn't, and he came second, but still with a very respectable 31.7% vote share, well ahead of Labour on 14.3% and the LibDems on 11.9%, and not too far behind Mark Garnier for the Tories on 36.9%.

Fast forward to 2015: it may be that the Tories will move backwards from 2010 (UKIP effect and general swing, perhaps), and that LibDem vote could well collapse at least partly in favour of Richard Taylor. In addition he may get some tactical or disgruntled Labour voters moving his way. Against that, there is the incumbency effect, and perhaps a minority-party squeeze. Overall, though, it looks to me more like a 2/1 or 3/1 shot than Shadsy's 8/1. I'm on!

isam

Carola said:

Re Miller - this doing the rounds on twitter:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5pGgzz4dZk&list=PLG8IrydigQfcOZJVitbBEAHtJL0T7I7_H

Good Lord

If anyone wondered why the public don't like politicians they just need to watch that

corporeal

RodCrosby said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

shadsy said:

rcs1000 said:

Free money on Betfair. Scottish independence turnout to be more 75%: I'd say that's a racing certainty (better than evens, for sure)

I haven't really given this market much thought, but why are you so confident? 75% seems quite high to me.

Some "UK-related" sovereignty referendum turnouts:

Northern Ireland (1973) - 58.7% (97.9% 'yes' for UK - SDLP urged a boycott, IRA insurgency at its height)
Gibraltar (2002) - 87.9% (98.5% 'no' to shared sovereignty with Spain)
Falklands (2013) - 91.9% (99.7% 'yes' to current UK status)

Problem is the Scottish register may be so inaccurate that the maximum possible turnout might be a fair distance from 100%.

IIRC, the max UK turnout would be around 90%.

I think that's probably an old stat Rod, afaiaa they've got a lot better in recent years at updating the registers regularly.

Carnyx

JosiasJessop said:

malcolmg said:

NO campaign are getting ever more desperate , having to resort to violence.

Nationalist MSP 'assaulted' during pub debate on independence
http://news.stv.tv/tayside/270936-david-torrance-msp-allegedly-attacked-in-novar-bar-in-kirkcaldy/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

A deplorable incident. But taking the action of one man - which may or may not have been prompted by the independence conversation - and tarring an entire campaign with it seems rather desperate.

I would agree, with two provisos. Firstly, it was presumably the TV station who ran with it, rather than the Yes campaign (no sign so far of the usual No Campaign type orchestration). Secondly, we don't know who the assailant was and therefore if his or her identity is significant politically.

And the other side have in fact been trying it on for a long time, often with much less excuse. Only the other week a Labour MP tried to concoct a story about Nat vandalism of his constituency office, complete with media and police. But it seems to have amounted to the odd sticker on the window, and some spraypainted slogans which turned out to be (a) old and (b) the local youth gang's territorial markers*. There is some very sharp investigative journalism and comment on this, inclouding a most interesting analysis of a Scotsman piece

http://wingsoverscotland.com/whats-that-secret-youre-keeping/#more-52889
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-cornered-rats/ (esp later on)
http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/9020-a-big-boy-dun-it-and-ran-away

*of course, they may be voting ... but I don't think the spray painting was political!

Sunil_Prasannan

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RodCrosby said:

Breaking: pro-Russian separatists take 60 hostages and mine a building with explosives in Ukrainian city of Luhansk...

That'd be 'Lugansk' in Russian, Rod!

As in Gyde Park, Comrade Sunilsky.

Comrade Chancellor - there are differences between Ukrainian and Russian orthography:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_alphabet
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_alphabet

Comrade

I see there is also an Euro-Ukrainian alphabet:
[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro-Ukrainian_alphabet ],
and,
even a Latin Ukrainian script:
[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Latin_alphabet ],
but,
I suspect these are only used for samizdat provocation by fascist capitalistniki like Socrates.

Comrade Chancellor!
It seems that the same Cyrillic letter is used for the 'G' in Lugansk (and other terms), but the Ukrainians pronounce it nearer to the 'H' in Hat.

Луганск - Russian
Луганськ - Ukrainian

isam

dyedwoolie said:

isam said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

Paddy Power is the only bookie currently running a book on the next Cabinet Minister to leave office, for which they have Maria Miller as the hot 1/4 favourite.

Why is Patrick McLoughlin rated the 5/2 second favourite ..... have I missed a news story about him?

Just topped up on their 16s Thurrock.. Lads have cut it to 7s from 10s

PP limited me to a maximum bet of £1.65 which I took!

Cycled, with a flat tyre, to Hornchurch shop... was like pulling teeth

Me "Can I have a price on UKIP to win Thurrock at the next GE please? Its 16/1, its on your website

Cashier: "Ok ill just find it on the system"

10 minutes later...

Me "Go to politics... press UK politics... constituency betting... Thurrock... UKIP...."

Cashier "16/1"

Me "thank you very much!"

To be fair they didn't even refer it, and when I backed them in there a couple of weeks ago the girl couldn't find the price and took my word for it!

Even if you just lay it off at 4-1 on Betfair nearer the time, it'll be a profitable trade.

Yeah reckon it will shorten to about that if not shorter still

Spoke to the candidate at the drink last night, Tim Aker. He seems pretty confident of beating the Tory

Certainly value at that money. I'm waiting for Gt Yarmouth to come out. Broadland or Mid Norfolk might be outside Kipper shots, and if they can take from Labour as well as Chloe, Norwich North might turn into a three way.

UKIP won the ward of Gooshays last year, which I believe is similar to Thurrock. UKIP and BNP got 15.3% of the vote in Thurrock GE2010.. how on earth can they be 16s?

Yes, those two are on my list as well

Im just off to back another one at Ladbrokes.. a nice price I will reveal it upon my return!

RodCrosby

corporeal said:

I think that's probably an old stat Rod, afaiaa they've got a lot better in recent years at updating the registers regularly.

Maybe... I'd love to know the answer. I believe Glasgow is the worst in the UK.

dyedwoolie

isam said:

dyedwoolie said:

isam said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

isam said:

peter_from_putney said:

Paddy Power is the only bookie currently running a book on the next Cabinet Minister to leave office, for which they have Maria Miller as the hot 1/4 favourite.

Why is Patrick McLoughlin rated the 5/2 second favourite ..... have I missed a news story about him?

Just topped up on their 16s Thurrock.. Lads have cut it to 7s from 10s

PP limited me to a maximum bet of £1.65 which I took!

Cycled, with a flat tyre, to Hornchurch shop... was like pulling teeth

Me "Can I have a price on UKIP to win Thurrock at the next GE please? Its 16/1, its on your website

Cashier: "Ok ill just find it on the system"

10 minutes later...

Me "Go to politics... press UK politics... constituency betting... Thurrock... UKIP...."

Cashier "16/1"

Me "thank you very much!"

To be fair they didn't even refer it, and when I backed them in there a couple of weeks ago the girl couldn't find the price and took my word for it!

Even if you just lay it off at 4-1 on Betfair nearer the time, it'll be a profitable trade.

Yeah reckon it will shorten to about that if not shorter still

Spoke to the candidate at the drink last night, Tim Aker. He seems pretty confident of beating the Tory

Certainly value at that money. I'm waiting for Gt Yarmouth to come out. Broadland or Mid Norfolk might be outside Kipper shots, and if they can take from Labour as well as Chloe, Norwich North might turn into a three way.

UKIP won the ward of Gooshays last year, which I believe is similar to Thurrock. UKIP and BNP got 15.3% of the vote in Thurrock GE2010.. how on earth can they be 16s?

Yes, those two are on my list as well

Im just off to back another one at Ladbrokes.. a nice price I will reveal it upon my return!

I'm guessing the bookies don't see their support at critical mass yet, hence even on a strong 13% or so it would make taking a seat tough. Of course, there is profit to be made in the meantime as the price moves with the polls

Carnyx

TheWatcher said:

Carnyx said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

NO campaign are getting ever more desperate , having to resort to violence.

Nationalist MSP 'assaulted' during pub debate on independence
http://news.stv.tv/tayside/270936-david-torrance-msp-allegedly-attacked-in-novar-bar-in-kirkcaldy/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Is it the same friendly and welcoming locals who rolled out the tartan carpet for Farage?

Of the two that were arrested re Mr Farage, one was a Labour or similar activist and the other was a chap from south of the border.

And the remainder, who weren't arrested?

(Your friend 'Wings' is from south of the border, so that's not really a get out).

Who knows? but it was clear at the time that the conseil d'accueil for Monsieur F was a primarily leftie rather than an indy mob, basically. Certainly not a SNP one.

And Wings is neither a friend* nor from south of the border - he lives there. Or stays there, as Mr Bond would like me to put it.

[edit: not that I have any reason to think I wouldn't enjoy a pint of cider with him]

john_zims

NAT ON NAT INCOMING

'An SNP attempt to downplay Alex Salmond's five-star hotel bills has backfired spectacularly after it emerged he stayed at luxury accommodation singled out by Nicola Sturgeon for direct criticism.'

Salmoan caught troughing again.