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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip surge to record high in first post-local election YouG

SystemSystem Posts: 12,249
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip surge to record high in first post-local election YouGov/Sun poll

In the first full YouGov poll carried out after the locals UKIP move to highest level with the firm CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 16%

Read the full story here


Comments

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Am I first, or do I need to edit the post?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    You are first
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    FPT
    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:


    Very Well. So not 'Roll On The Insults' then. Perhaps you might suggest to your leaders as well that people don't like their insults either.......
    I doubt Hermann Rompuy liked being insulted by Farage either. And my guess is that the vast majority of Belgians agreed with him.

    You cannot argue that Farage has a right to insult because it appeals to his supporters and advances his policies and that other political leaders should be denied the same opportunities.



    I don't. Politicians insult each other all the time and Eurocrats insult this country and Eurosceptics as much as the likes of Farage insult them. Its not pretty but it is what it is.

    My argument against Cameron and his Downing Street chums was it was bad politics and unlike Brown who only actually directly insulted 1 voter (to whom he did apologise personally). Cameron insulted millions of voters potentially and he has yet to make a real retraction of what he said and has reinforced the attack by failing to withdraw it a number of times recently and by his coterie continuing to make derogatory noises.
    So when is Farage going to apologise in public to Hermann van Rompuy and all Belgians?

    Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.

    I agree with him.

    You appear not to agree.

    That's politics.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,729
    The last YouGov in the Sunday Times was taken on Thurs / Fri so before the local election results came out and was:

    Con 30, Lab 40, LD 11, UKIP 12

    So tonight's poll shows changes of:

    Con -1
    Lab -1
    LD -2
    UKIP +4

    So again no sign of Con being hit disproportionately.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    corporeal said:

    Am I first, or do I need to edit the post?

    No need to edit.

    PB doesn't support AV.

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    MikeL said:


    So tonight's poll shows changes of:

    Con -1
    Lab -1
    LD -2
    UKIP +4

    So again no sign of Con being hit disproportionately.

    In terms of a UNS, maybe not, however all of this national polling disregards the much more effective distribution of the Labour vote.

    it's pretty meaningless.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Feeding tonight’s YouGov into the Electoral Calculus HoCpredictor we get a LAB majority of 108. Ukip on zero seats

    The Calculus calculator works on UNS. As UKIP did very modestly at the 2010 election and only polled afew points in almost every seat until they actually start polling in the mid to high 20's they won't stand a chance of getting any seats in such calculators

    Furthermore such calculators do not recognise regional and local surges (i.e. such as UKIP getting 40%+ of the vote in the County Council wards that make up Boston & Skegness constituency)

    Its the downside of such calculators. They just don't take those sort of things into account.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    FPT

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:


    Very Well. So not 'Roll On The Insults' then. Perhaps you might suggest to your leaders as well that people don't like their insults either.......
    I doubt Hermann Rompuy liked being insulted by Farage either. And my guess is that the vast majority of Belgians agreed with him.

    You cannot argue that Farage has a right to insult because it appeals to his supporters and advances his policies and that other political leaders should be denied the same opportunities.



    I don't. Politicians insult each other all the time and Eurocrats insult this country and Eurosceptics as much as the likes of Farage insult them. Its not pretty but it is what it is.

    My argument against Cameron and his Downing Street chums was it was bad politics and unlike Brown who only actually directly insulted 1 voter (to whom he did apologise personally). Cameron insulted millions of voters potentially and he has yet to make a real retraction of what he said and has reinforced the attack by failing to withdraw it a number of times recently and by his coterie continuing to make derogatory noises.
    So when is Farage going to apologise in public to Hermann van Rompuy and all Belgians?

    Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.

    I agree with him.

    You appear not to agree.

    That's politics.
    Cameron and his hapless wankocracy have insulted a large proportion of the British electorate. Farage insulted an unpopular eurocrat and a bunch of Belgians who will never have a say in British elections.

    You see the difference, in terms of British electoral politics?

    Yes.



    What is insulting about being called a fruitcake, loonie or closet racist?

    If I was a kipper I would be pleased my voice had been heard by the nomenklatura.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    AveryLP said:

    FPT

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:


    Very Well. So not 'Roll On The Insults' then. Perhaps you might suggest to your leaders as well that people don't like their insults either.......
    I doubt Hermann Rompuy liked being insulted by Farage either. And my guess is that the vast majority of Belgians agreed with him.

    You cannot argue that Farage has a right to insult because it appeals to his supporters and advances his policies and that other political leaders should be denied the same opportunities.



    I don't. Politicians insult each other all the time and Eurocrats insult this country and Eurosceptics as much as the likes of Farage insult them. Its not pretty but it is what it is.

    My argument against Cameron and his Downing Street chums was it was bad politics and unlike Brown who only actually directly insulted 1 voter (to whom he did apologise personally). Cameron insulted millions of voters potentially and he has yet to make a real retraction of what he said and has reinforced the attack by failing to withdraw it a number of times recently and by his coterie continuing to make derogatory noises.
    So when is Farage going to apologise in public to Hermann van Rompuy and all Belgians?

    Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.

    I agree with him.

    You appear not to agree.

    That's politics.
    Cameron and his hapless wankocracy have insulted a large proportion of the British electorate. Farage insulted an unpopular eurocrat and a bunch of Belgians who will never have a say in British elections.

    You see the difference, in terms of British electoral politics?

    Yes.

    What is insulting about being called a fruitcake, loonie or closet racist?

    If I was a kipper I would be pleased my voice had been heard by the nomenklatura.
    It would help if you were funny, or witty, in some way.



    I am not Prince Hamlet nor was meant to be.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    AveryLP said:

    FPT

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:


    Very Well. So not 'Roll On The Insults' then. Perhaps you might suggest to your leaders as well that people don't like their insults either.......
    I doubt Hermann Rompuy liked being insulted by Farage either. And my guess is that the vast majority of Belgians agreed with him.

    You cannot argue that Farage has a right to insult because it appeals to his supporters and advances his policies and that other political leaders should be denied the same opportunities.



    I don't. Politicians insult each other all the time and Eurocrats insult this country and Eurosceptics as much as the likes of Farage insult them. Its not pretty but it is what it is.

    My argument against Cameron and his Downing Street chums was it was bad politics and unlike Brown who only actually directly insulted 1 voter (to whom he did apologise personally). Cameron insulted millions of voters potentially and he has yet to make a real retraction of what he said and has reinforced the attack by failing to withdraw it a number of times recently and by his coterie continuing to make derogatory noises.
    So when is Farage going to apologise in public to Hermann van Rompuy and all Belgians?

    Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.

    I agree with him.

    You appear not to agree.

    That's politics.

    The trick, Avery Lympe-Pole, is not minding that it hurts.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    AveryLP said:

    FPT

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:


    Very Well. So not 'Roll On The Insults' then. Perhaps you might suggest to your leaders as well that people don't like their insults either.......
    I doubt Hermann Rompuy liked being insulted by Farage either. And my guess is that the vast majority of Belgians agreed with him.

    You cannot argue that Farage has a right to insult because it appeals to his supporters and advances his policies and that other political leaders should be denied the same opportunities.



    I don't. Politicians insult each other all the time and Eurocrats insult this country and Eurosceptics as much as the likes of Farage insult them. Its not pretty but it is what it is.

    My argument against Cameron and his Downing Street chums was it was bad politics and unlike Brown who only actually directly insulted 1 voter (to whom he did apologise personally). Cameron insulted millions of voters potentially and he has yet to make a real retraction of what he said and has reinforced the attack by failing to withdraw it a number of times recently and by his coterie continuing to make derogatory noises.
    So when is Farage going to apologise in public to Hermann van Rompuy and all Belgians?

    Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.

    I agree with him.

    You appear not to agree.

    That's politics.

    You seem to have a problem telling the differentiating between politicians and voters (much like David Cameron I suppose). Either that or you are just being obtuse for the hell of it but anyway its no sweat of my nose. I've no problems with Cameron not apologising. Its his choice if Cameron wants to terminate his political career at the earliest opportunity and thats fine with me.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Oh for the edit button back!

    telling the differentiating between politicians and voters
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,565
    edited May 2013
    I've asked Shadsy to price up some GE seats where UKIP has half a chance...

    Thurrock in particular is interesting - if the polling is correct and remains this way heading into the GE essentially CON has very little chance in that seat so it would make sense for centre-right/right voters to vote tactically UKIP. The rest of UKIP's targets seem to have fairly big CON majorities at the moment.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    "reckons that Ukip need to get to 24% before they starting picking up seats"

    that sounds more like it
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    O/T:

    Cornwall results by division (122 in total):

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dC02dFJobkdWY1E1VTBiaWFiN3EwOFE#gid=0

    Votes:

    Con 34,191
    LD 31,074
    Ind 28,990
    UKIP 21,306
    Lab 11,383
    MK 6,523
    Green 3,957
    Lib 143
    Others 1,903

    Total 139,470

    Percentages:

    Con 24.51%
    LD 22.28%
    Ind 20.79%
    UKIP 15.28%
    Lab 8.16%
    MK 4.68%
    Green 2.84%
    Lib 0.10%
    Others 1.36%

    Changes since 2010 (although a comparison with 2009 would make more sense):

    Con -16.43%
    Lab -0.47%
    UKIP +10.38%
    LD -19.48%
    Green +1.57%
    MK +2.76%
    Ind +20.79%

    The strength of Independents in Cornwall make comparisons with the general election awkward.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:


    Cameron and his hapless wankocracy have insulted a large proportion of the British electorate. Farage insulted an unpopular eurocrat and a bunch of Belgians who will never have a say in British elections.

    On a summer's day a few years back I happened across a remarkable political protest taking place in a London park. A small horde of students were demonstrating against Nigel Farage. They were a remarkably spritely and nubile lot, with the Belgian flag facepainted across their cheeks - sometimes accompanied by the stars of Europe - and surprisingly cheerful and friendly bearing in mind they were chanting nationalist slogans while protesting against their motherland's abject humiliation at the hands of a rogue British politician. These slogans were emblazoned across their otherwise identical white T-shirts - which I must report were eye-catching mostly for their skimpiness/tightness ratio when pressed against the bosoms of the flower of Belgian youth, but which one was compelled to politely stare at in order to read their political maxims. Failing to imbibe the wisdom of their words would clearly disrespectful as it would undermine the revolutionary purpose of their collective action. This is what I learned:

    "Belgium is a real country!" (this seemed to be the main point of the demonstration and the particular aspect of Farage's commentary that had caused them the greatest offence)

    "I love Brussels!"

    "Belgium makes good chocolate!" (which I am not sure Mr Farage disputed in the first place, but a particularly attractive girl chose to wear this one so I am in no position to complain)

    "Van Rompuy is a great President!" (but I am not sure whether she believed it or not. Perhaps she did. She looked very earnest, and perhaps as a consequence, not so aesthetically appealing.)

    If Nige wishes to harangue this noble country again I, for one, would be delighted. I would prefer it if he stuck to questioning its existential validity, its choice of capital city, and its fine confectionery produce. Van Rompuy is strictly off-limits. After all he is, so I am told, a great president.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    FPT

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:


    Very Well. So not 'Roll On The Insults' then. Perhaps you might suggest to your leaders as well that people don't like their insults either.......
    I doubt Hermann Rompuy liked being insulted by Farage either. And my guess is that the vast majority of Belgians agreed with him.

    You cannot argue that Farage has a right to insult because it appeals to his supporters and advances his policies and that other political leaders should be denied the same opportunities.



    I don't. Politicians insult each other all the time and Eurocrats insult this country and Eurosceptics as much as the likes of Farage insult them. Its not pretty but it is what it is.

    My argument against Cameron and his Downing Street chums was it was bad politics and unlike Brown who only actually directly insulted 1 voter (to whom he did apologise personally). Cameron insulted millions of voters potentially and he has yet to make a real retraction of what he said and has reinforced the attack by failing to withdraw it a number of times recently and by his coterie continuing to make derogatory noises.
    So when is Farage going to apologise in public to Hermann van Rompuy and all Belgians?

    Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.

    I agree with him.

    You appear not to agree.

    That's politics.
    You seem to have a problem telling the differentiating between politicians and voters (much like David Cameron I suppose). Either that or you are just being obtuse for the hell of it but anyway its no sweat of my nose. I've no problems with Cameron not apologising. Its his choice if Cameron wants to terminate his political career at the earliest opportunity and thats fine with me.

    You misunderstand.

    The electorate, like individuals, are presented with choices and become responsible for their outcomes.

    If the electorate decide to vote Cameron out of office by voting for UKIP and Farage, that is their choice. If they do so on the sole basis that Cameron hasn't "apologised" for "insulting" voters, then that too is their choice.

    There is so much petulance to the UKIP surge: a threat that if Cameron doesn't do this; or apologise for that; or call a referendum on this; or dance to our tune on that, then - believe me, we will - we will really, we wil vote for UKIP.

    If you want Farage vote for him. If you want Miliband vote for him.

    Remember it is you who will be responsible for the outcome.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,107
    Aren't these predictions relying on a UNS? And given that we have electoral evidence to suggest the UKIP phenomenon is not uniformly distributed around the country, surely this means they are much more likely to get a seat on 16-20% of the vote?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    Let's assume for a moment that Boston & Skegness is UKIP's best hope of a seat at the next election. The truth is no-one knows what GB percentage they'd need to gain the seat, and it probably wouldn't have much relation to their national showing anyway. They might win it with only 10% nationally or fail to get it while polling 20%.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MyBurningEars said:

    SeanT said:


    Cameron and his hapless wankocracy have insulted a large proportion of the British electorate. Farage insulted an unpopular eurocrat and a bunch of Belgians who will never have a say in British elections.

    On a summer's day a few years back I happened across a remarkable political protest taking place in a London park. A small horde of students were demonstrating against Nigel Farage. They were a remarkably spritely and nubile lot, with the Belgian flag facepainted across their cheeks - sometimes accompanied by the stars of Europe - and surprisingly cheerful and friendly bearing in mind they were chanting nationalist slogans while protesting against their motherland's abject humiliation at the hands of a rogue British politician. These slogans were emblazoned across their otherwise identical white T-shirts - which I must report were eye-catching mostly for their skimpiness/tightness ratio when pressed against the bosoms of the flower of Belgian youth, but which one was compelled to politely stare at in order to read their political maxims. Failing to imbibe the wisdom of their words would clearly disrespectful as it would undermine the revolutionary purpose of their collective action. This is what I learned:

    "Belgium is a real country!" (this seemed to be the main point of the demonstration and the particular aspect of Farage's commentary that had caused them the greatest offence)

    "I love Brussels!"

    "Belgium makes good chocolate!" (which I am not sure Mr Farage disputed in the first place, but a particularly attractive girl chose to wear this one so I am in no position to complain)

    "Van Rompuy is a great President!" (but I am not sure whether she believed it or not. Perhaps she did. She looked very earnest, and perhaps as a consequence, not so aesthetically appealing.)

    If Nige wishes to harangue this noble country again I, for one, would be delighted. I would prefer it if he stuck to questioning its existential validity, its choice of capital city, and its fine confectionery produce. Van Rompuy is strictly off-limits. After all he is, so I am told, a great president.
    At last someone who understands.

    "Liked".
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    well it's more likely than saying they needed 30% before gaining seats
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AveryLP said:

    FPT

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:


    Very Well. So not 'Roll On The Insults' then. Perhaps you might suggest to your leaders as well that people don't like their insults either.......
    I doubt Hermann Rompuy liked being insulted by Farage either. And my guess is that the vast majority of Belgians agreed with him.

    You cannot argue that Farage has a right to insult because it appeals to his supporters and advances his policies and that other political leaders should be denied the same opportunities.



    I don't. Politicians insult each other all the time and Eurocrats insult this country and Eurosceptics as much as the likes of Farage insult them. Its not pretty but it is what it is.

    My argument against Cameron and his Downing Street chums was it was bad politics and unlike Brown who only actually directly insulted 1 voter (to whom he did apologise personally). Cameron insulted millions of voters potentially and he has yet to make a real retraction of what he said and has reinforced the attack by failing to withdraw it a number of times recently and by his coterie continuing to make derogatory noises.
    So when is Farage going to apologise in public to Hermann van Rompuy and all Belgians?

    Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.

    I agree with him.

    You appear not to agree.

    That's politics.
    The trick, Avery Lympe-Pole, is not minding that it hurts.

    As MBE so eloquently demonstrated?

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Yes of course it is based on UNS. What else is there without specific polls?

    Ukip needs to build up robust organisation and round the year campaigning in the areas where it now has councillors. That's how the Greens broke through in Brighton at GE2010.
    RobD said:

    Aren't these predictions relying on a UNS? And given that we have electoral evidence to suggest the UKIP phenomenon is not uniformly distributed around the country, surely this means they are much more likely to get a seat on 16-20% of the vote?

  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    FPT

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:


    Very Well. So not 'Roll On The Insults' then. Perhaps you might suggest to your leaders as well that people don't like their insults either.......
    I doubt Hermann Rompuy liked being insulted by Farage either. And my guess is that the vast majority of Belgians agreed with him.

    You cannot argue that Farage has a right to insult because it appeals to his supporters and advances his policies and that other political leaders should be denied the same opportunities.



    I don't. Politicians insult each other all the time and Eurocrats insult this country and Eurosceptics as much as the likes of Farage insult them. Its not pretty but it is what it is.

    My argument against Cameron and his Downing Street chums was it was bad politics and unlike Brown who only actually directly insulted 1 voter (to whom he did apologise personally). Cameron insulted millions of voters potentially and he has yet to make a real retraction of what he said and has reinforced the attack by failing to withdraw it a number of times recently and by his coterie continuing to make derogatory noises.
    So when is Farage going to apologise in public to Hermann van Rompuy and all Belgians?

    Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.

    I agree with him.

    You appear not to agree.

    That's politics.
    You seem to have a problem telling the differentiating between politicians and voters (much like David Cameron I suppose). Either that or you are just being obtuse for the hell of it but anyway its no sweat of my nose. I've no problems with Cameron not apologising. Its his choice if Cameron wants to terminate his political career at the earliest opportunity and thats fine with me.
    You misunderstand.

    The electorate, like individuals, are presented with choices and become responsible for their outcomes.

    If the electorate decide to vote Cameron out of office by voting for UKIP and Farage, that is their choice. If they do so on the sole basis that Cameron hasn't "apologised" for "insulting" voters, then that too is their choice.

    There is so much petulance to the UKIP surge: a threat that if Cameron doesn't do this; or apologise for that; or call a referendum on this; or dance to our tune on that, then - believe me, we will - we will really, we wil vote for UKIP.

    If you want Farage vote for him. If you want Miliband vote for him.

    Remember it is you who will be responsible for the outcome.



    No I dont misunderstand. Funnily enough I was musing today how much it seemed to be the remaining conservatives that are the petulant ones making threats against their leaders or alternatively are the desperate ones (running round like headless chickens seeking evermore implausible ways to recover those UKIP voters). Settled UKIP supporters seem to have already decided what they are going to do.

    Similarly, its Conservatives who seem to keep banging on about a pact with UKIP whereas other than Farage's tongue in cheek saying that he will only deal with a Cameron free Tory party (knowing that it's a non-starter), UKIP supporters are not saying a great deal about it other than perhaps agreeing with the likes of Boris Johnson that somewhere down the line the right will likely reunite.

    Of course all this has done is further bring to the surface what a collectively dysfunctional, psychologically damaged and broken party the Conservative Party is. The constant bickering and division, the setting up of ever more new factions, indulging in all sorts of intrigue and subterfuge (e.g. Cameron's abortive attempt to hijack the 1922), the fretting and handwringing over their never-ending toxicity and outdatedness and their multitude of electoral problems (their Scottish problem, their Northern problem, their urban problem), the ineptness of their political strategies. It's amazing that they have time to do any politics at all, let alone head a government up.

    With that in mind its of little surprise so many have fled to the relative peacefulness of UKIP!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    FPT

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:


    Very Well. So not 'Roll On The Insults' then. Perhaps you might suggest to your leaders as well that people don't like their insults either.......
    I doubt Hermann Rompuy liked being insulted by Farage either. And my guess is that the vast majority of Belgians agreed with him.

    You cannot argue that Farage has a right to insult because it appeals to his supporters and advances his policies and that other political leaders should be denied the same opportunities.



    I don't. Politicians insult each other all the time and Eurocrats insult this country and Eurosceptics as much as the likes of Farage insult them. Its not pretty but it is what it is.

    My argument against Cameron and his Downing Street chums was it was bad politics and unlike Brown who only actually directly insulted 1 voter (to whom he did apologise personally). Cameron insulted millions of voters potentially and he has yet to make a real retraction of what he said and has reinforced the attack by failing to withdraw it a number of times recently and by his coterie continuing to make derogatory noises.
    So when is Farage going to apologise in public to Hermann van Rompuy and all Belgians?

    Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.

    I agree with him.

    You appear not to agree.

    That's politics.
    You seem to have a problem telling the differentiating between politicians and voters (much like David Cameron I suppose). Either that or you are just being obtuse for the hell of it but anyway its no sweat of my nose. I've no problems with Cameron not apologising. Its his choice if Cameron wants to terminate his political career at the earliest opportunity and thats fine with me.
    You misunderstand.

    The electorate, like individuals, are presented with choices and become responsible for their outcomes.

    If the electorate decide to vote Cameron out of office by voting for UKIP and Farage, that is their choice. If they do so on the sole basis that Cameron hasn't "apologised" for "insulting" voters, then that too is their choice.

    There is so much petulance to the UKIP surge: a threat that if Cameron doesn't do this; or apologise for that; or call a referendum on this; or dance to our tune on that, then - believe me, we will - we will really, we wil vote for UKIP.

    If you want Farage vote for him. If you want Miliband vote for him.

    Remember it is you who will be responsible for the outcome.

    No I dont misunderstand. Funnily enough I was musing today how much it seemed to be the remaining conservatives that are the petulant ones making threats against their leaders or alternatively are the desperate ones (running round like headless chickens seeking evermore implausible ways to recover those UKIP voters). Settled UKIP supporters seem to have already decided what they are going to do.

    Similarly, its Conservatives who seem to keep banging on about a pact with UKIP whereas other than Farage's tongue in cheek saying that he will only deal with a Cameron free Tory party (knowing that it's a non-starter), UKIP supporters are not saying a great deal about it other than perhaps agreeing with the likes of Boris Johnson that somewhere down the line the right will likely reunite.

    Of course all this has done is further bring to the surface what a collectively dysfunctional, psychologically damaged and broken party the Conservative Party is. The constant bickering and division, the setting up of ever more new factions, indulging in all sorts of intrigue and subterfuge (e.g. Cameron's abortive attempt to hijack the 1922), the fretting and handwringing over their never-ending toxicity and outdatedness and their multitude of electoral problems (their Scottish problem, their Northern problem, their urban problem), the ineptness of their political strategies. It's amazing that they have time to do any politics at all, let alone head a government up.

    With that in mind its of little surprise so many have fled to the relative peacefulness of UKIP!

    And not a positive reason for voting UKIP in the whole post.

    Just one long angry whinge.

    No one is stopping you voting UKIP. Just as no one stopped the 25% of Italians who voted for Beppe Grillo and his 5 Star Party in Italy.

    Just don't expect the financial;markets and the UK's international allies to come to our rescue if the result turns the UK back into the basketcase of Europe.

    And don't blame the Tories. It is your choice and your responsibility.

  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    MyBurningEars said:

    SeanT said:


    Cameron and his hapless wankocracy have insulted a large proportion of the British electorate. Farage insulted an unpopular eurocrat and a bunch of Belgians who will never have a say in British elections.

    On a summer's day a few years back I happened across a remarkable political protest taking place in a London park. A small horde of students were demonstrating against Nigel Farage. They were a remarkably spritely and nubile lot, with the Belgian flag facepainted across their cheeks - sometimes accompanied by the stars of Europe - and surprisingly cheerful and friendly bearing in mind they were chanting nationalist slogans while protesting against their motherland's abject humiliation at the hands of a rogue British politician. These slogans were emblazoned across their otherwise identical white T-shirts - which I must report were eye-catching mostly for their skimpiness/tightness ratio when pressed against the bosoms of the flower of Belgian youth, but which one was compelled to politely stare at in order to read their political maxims. Failing to imbibe the wisdom of their words would clearly disrespectful as it would undermine the revolutionary purpose of their collective action. This is what I learned:

    "Belgium is a real country!" (this seemed to be the main point of the demonstration and the particular aspect of Farage's commentary that had caused them the greatest offence)

    "I love Brussels!"

    "Belgium makes good chocolate!" (which I am not sure Mr Farage disputed in the first place, but a particularly attractive girl chose to wear this one so I am in no position to complain)

    "Van Rompuy is a great President!" (but I am not sure whether she believed it or not. Perhaps she did. She looked very earnest, and perhaps as a consequence, not so aesthetically appealing.)

    If Nige wishes to harangue this noble country again I, for one, would be delighted. I would prefer it if he stuck to questioning its existential validity, its choice of capital city, and its fine confectionery produce. Van Rompuy is strictly off-limits. After all he is, so I am told, a great president.
    MBE was this one of the times when Belgium actually had a government or was it during one of the interregnum's? I only wondered because of course Van Rompuy caused one of the interregnums when he decided to jump ship and become Eurogod.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007–2011_Belgian_political_crisis
  • GarethofthevaleGarethofthevale Posts: 503
    Avery - thanks for your comment. I don't tend to repost things - it feels a bit self-indulgent ;-)

  • ojcorbsojcorbs Posts: 30
    I have said it before and I'll say it again: any seat predictor which attempts to gauge UKIP seat numbers based on a uniform swing will fail. The increase in support since the last GE is too extreme to have any sort of accuracy from a swingometer. The elections last week proved this, UKIP increased seat numbers far more than expected because UKIP is beginning to show grouped support which it has never had before.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    FPT

    smithersjones2013 said:

    AveryLP said:

    smithersjones2013 said:


    Very Well. So not 'Roll On The Insults' then. Perhaps you might suggest to your leaders as well that people don't like their insults either.......
    I doubt Hermann Rompuy liked being insulted by Farage either. And my guess is that the vast majority of Belgians agreed with him.

    You cannot argue that Farage has a right to insult because it appeals to his supporters and advances his policies and that other political leaders should be denied the same opportunities.



    I don't. Politicians insult each other all the time and Eurocrats insult this country and Eurosceptics as much as the likes of Farage insult them. Its not pretty but it is what it is.

    My argument against Cameron and his Downing Street chums was it was bad politics and unlike Brown who only actually directly insulted 1 voter (to whom he did apologise personally). Cameron insulted millions of voters potentially and he has yet to make a real retraction of what he said and has reinforced the attack by failing to withdraw it a number of times recently and by his coterie continuing to make derogatory noises.
    So when is Farage going to apologise in public to Hermann van Rompuy and all Belgians?

    Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.

    I agree with him.

    You appear not to agree.

    That's politics.
    You seem to have a problem telling the differentiating between politicians and voters (much like David Cameron I suppose). Either that or you are just being obtuse for the hell of it but anyway its no sweat of my nose. I've no problems with Cameron not apologising. Its his choice if Cameron wants to terminate his political career at the earliest opportunity and thats fine with me.
    You misunderstand.

    The electorate, like individuals, are presented with choices and become responsible for their outcomes.

    If the electorate decide to vote Cameron out of office by voting for UKIP and Farage, that is their choice. If they do so on the sole basis that Cameron hasn't "apologised" for "insulting" voters, then that too is their choice.

    There is so much petulance to the UKIP surge: a threat that if Cameron doesn't do this; or apologise for that; or call a referendum on this; or dance to our tune on that, then - believe me, we will - we will really, we wil vote for UKIP.

    If you want Farage vote for him. If you want Miliband vote for him.

    Remember it is you who will be responsible for the outcome.

    No I dont misunderstand. Funnily enough I was musing today how much it seemed to be the remaining conservatives that are the petulant ones making threats against their leaders or alternatively are the desperate ones (running round like headless chickens seeking evermore implausible ways to recover those UKIP voters). Settled UKIP supporters seem to have already decided what they are going to do.

    Similarly, its Conservatives who seem to keep banging on about a pact with UKIP whereas other than Farage's tongue in cheek saying that he will only deal with a Cameron free Tory party (knowing that it's a non-starter), UKIP supporters are not saying a great deal about it other than perhaps agreeing with the likes of Boris Johnson that somewhere down the line the right will likely reunite.

    Of course all this has done is further bring to the surface what a collectively dysfunctional, psychologically damaged and broken party the Conservative Party is. The constant bickering and division, the setting up of ever more new factions, indulging in all sorts of intrigue and subterfuge (e.g. Cameron's abortive attempt to hijack the 1922), the fretting and handwringing over their never-ending toxicity and outdatedness and their multitude of electoral problems (their Scottish problem, their Northern problem, their urban problem), the ineptness of their political strategies. It's amazing that they have time to do any politics at all, let alone head a government up.

    With that in mind its of little surprise so many have fled to the relative peacefulness of UKIP!
    And not a positive reason for voting UKIP in the whole post.

    Just one long angry whinge.

    No one is stopping you voting UKIP. Just as no one stopped the 25% of Italians who voted for Beppe Grillo and his 5 Star Party in Italy.

    Just don't expect the financial;markets and the UK's international allies to come to our rescue if the result turns the UK back into the basketcase of Europe.

    And don't blame the Tories. It is your choice and your responsibility.



    And don't blame the Tories. It is your choice and your responsibility

    Indeed its always good to prepare your excuses in advance but blaming everyone who probably won't vote for you in advance is not a good way of actually tempting them back. Its not the wisest potential self fulfilling prophecy you could adopt.Not good politics

    How on earth you conjured up the idea that there was anger in my post is beyond me? Anger was the last thing on my mind. I'm quite tranquil and at peace with my choices and certainly will not regret them or unfairly blame anyone for anything they haven't done. It would only be a whinge if I had any vested interest in the Tory Party and I don't anymore. Its just an observation for people to make of as they wish. If the rump of the Tory party don't want to listen thats up to them. Its their funeral........

    And I did give a positive reason for supporting UKIP in a roundabout way (suggesting it was peaceful). Its far less stressful and frustrating. You should try it. It might lighten your outlook. Not everything is an angry whinge.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    "Labour majority of 108...."

    Why would 'a former Cambridge and now City Mathematician' waste his and everyone else's time with a wonderfully precise calculation of a quantity which is completely irrelevant?

    I moved on to swing-back analysis six or seven years ago for a very good reason ...

    Predicting the future is only credible if you can also predict what is going to happen between now and then....
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Well, long day tomorrow so time to retire for the night. I'll leave you with this observation from a notable politician:

    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unheallthy state of things.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    @smithersjones2013

    Farage made his comments in February 2010, the demonstration I saw was a little later than this - well after the initial controversy had died down, which is why it took me a while to work out that it was a protest at all, not some sort of "Belgium Awareness Event" led by a tourist board or a university's Benelux Society having a picnic in the park.

    It was a bright and sunny day, and the poor girls were not completely freezing in their t-shirts. My travel records show I was working in central London for several days in March and most of April. March was quite cold and very cloudy in London that year; but out of the days I was there, on the 26th it was mild, about 14C, and bright. It's more likely it was in April, when after an early spell of cloud it brightened up and the temperature was regularly about 20C.

    As such it's not possible to tell you what state the Belgian government was in! Your memory is deceiving you; van Rompuy's exit did not trigger an interregnum. There had been a smooth transition to Yves Leterme. The government fell in April 2010 on the issue of the constitutional status of Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde, a controversial and long-running sore in Belgium's complicated linguistic (or more to the point, communitarian) politics. And Belgium wasn't without a government, any more than Britain was after the last GE and until the Coalition was formed - it's just that Leterme, like Brown, persisted in office only as a caretaker.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,729
    Rod - Baxter isn't predicting ANYTHING.

    It's just a model showing effect of UNS (***) on seats.

    It is for anybody to put in THEIR predicted vote shares and it will give seats based on UNS (***).

    But Baxter isn't making any prediction at all re vote shares.

    (***) In fact I think he's tweaked it to be a halfway house between UNS and proportional swing.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    O/T:

    Essex results by division:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDIySUJiWThFM3gxcWEyNll4Rkx0Mnc#gid=0

    Votes:

    Con 102,989
    UKIP 80,886
    Lab 49,026
    LD 34,685
    Green 14,422
    Ind 10,125
    Tendring First 4,093
    Others 3,024

    Total 299,250

    Percentages:

    Con 34.42%
    UKIP 27.03%
    Lab 16.38%
    LD 11.59%
    Green 4.82%
    Ind 3.38%
    Tendring First 1.37%
    Others 1.01%

    Only five council areas still to add up:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDFzVlVSWGtOaGlNQllBQjBmVzc0Mnc#gid=0
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Magnus Linklater ‏@MagnusLinklater 19h

    Nigel Lawson, climate change denier, says we should quit Europe: a very good reason for staying in
    Retweeted 169 times"

    https://twitter.com/MagnusLinklater/status/331662826009657344
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,107
    edited May 2013
    AndyJS said:

    "Magnus Linklater ‏@MagnusLinklater 19h

    Nigel Lawson, climate change denier, says we should quit Europe: a very good reason for staying in
    Retweeted 169 times"

    https://twitter.com/MagnusLinklater/status/331662826009657344

    Running out of reasons as to why we should say in, apparently.

    BTW, thanks for the spreadsheets.. I wonder if some sort of centralised local elections website is in order....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    39:29:17:9

    OK. We are prepared to accept this loss and get only 39% of the votes !

    I think we could work with a majority of just 100.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    App: -35

    UKIP support mainly from Rest of South and Midlands/Wales and then North. Far less support from London & Scotland.

    UKIP:
    Issues facing the country:
    Immigration: 90%
    Economy: 73%
    Europe: 49%

    Issues facing you and your family:
    Economy: 69%
    Pensions: 39%
    Immigration: 38%
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited May 2013
    YouGov

    Age Groups: 18-24; 25-39; 40-59; 60+

    Would not vote: 13%; 14%; 6%; 5%
    Vote UKIP: 10%; 6%; 15%; 28%

    Social Grade: ABC1; C2DE
    Vote UKIP: 13%; 21%
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Another nonsensical article at the top of the thread. In the County Council elections, UKIP got a national equivalent of (depending on how you define it or calculate it) somewhere between 18% and 24% of the votes. it was the largest single party in at least a handful of parliamentary constituencies.

    If UKIP got 24% of the votes in a general election, its votes would no doubt be more efficiently distributed, and more selectively targeted and concentrated in, several areas (e.g. Lincolnshire, Essex, Devon etc.), while completely ignored/collapsed in others (e.g. Scotland, Wales, inner London). In other words, it would win several seats - possibly dozens.

    The suggestion that UKIP could get 24% of the votes in a general election but no seats is doubleplusridiculous verging psephocrime.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (Two threads ago)

    Carlotta Vance
    As Bob Monkhouse said - "They said I'd never be a comedian - they're not laughing now!"

    If you're going to tell a joke, tell it properly. What Bob Monkhouse said was "When I said I wanted to be a comedian they laughed at me. They're not laughing now".
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    JohnLoony said:

    (Two threads ago)

    Carlotta Vance
    As Bob Monkhouse said - "They said I'd never be a comedian - they're not laughing now!"

    If you're going to tell a joke, tell it properly. What Bob Monkhouse said was "When I said I wanted to be a comedian they laughed at me. They're not laughing now".

    Roger corrected the joke at the time.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting analysis on differences in attitudes between Britain, Europe and the US:

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/07/anglo-us-divide-equality/
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @JohnLoony

    "psephocrime"

    LOL - love it!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,251
    This is all very reminiscent of the Cleggasm.

    The next step is to focus on the silliness of some UKIP positions.

    Such as being such civil libertarians who want allow people the freedom to smoke in public but not let them married.

    Perhaps UKIP's position will be to ban gays from smoking in public.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT Totally random question - does anyone like clowns? I don't know anybody who does and a few who actively dislike them/think they're creepy.

    For reference - I've just seen an episode of CSI NY that is exactly the same plot as one from the Mentalist [murderer dresses as clown and advertises for loads of other clowns to turn up at the murder scene to confuse the police].
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013
    Good morning.
    Our latest assh*le prediction is that UKIP will have to get 95% of the poll before they gain one seat:

    UKIP: 95% = 001
    Con: 2% = 266
    Lab: 2.15% = 318
    Lib: 0.1% = 44
    Oth: 0,05% = 21
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (Completely Off Topic) Today is the 40th birthday of the nastiest person I have ever known. I was passionately in love with him for a few months while we were at university, when he was very charming, lean, handsome and athletic, before I discovered how nasty and horrible he was. I have now discovered some recent footage of him on Youtube which shows that he is now middle-aged, fat, bald and with a badly-fitting suit. I get some small amount of Schadenfreude from this discovery.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,251
    Plato said:

    OT Totally random question - does anyone like clowns? I don't know anybody who does and a few who actively dislike them/think they're creepy.

    For reference - I've just seen an episode of CSI NY that is exactly the same plot as one from the Mentalist [murderer dresses as clown and advertises for loads of other clowns to turn up at the murder scene to confuse the police].

    I love clowns.

    I think it has something to do with Tim Curry's performance as Pennywise.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,251
    JohnLoony said:

    (Completely Off Topic) Today is the 40th birthday of the nastiest person I have ever known. I was passionately in love with him for a few months while we were at university, when he was very charming, lean, handsome and athletic, before I discovered how nasty and horrible he was. I have now discovered some recent footage of him on Youtube which shows that he is now middle-aged, fat, bald and with a badly-fitting suit. I get some small amount of Schadenfreude from this discovery.

    Phew, just checked that it isn't Brian Coleman's birthday.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LabourList: Taking on the emerging UKIP/Tory coalition http://labli.st/ZGcCtE
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    There will be odds on the number of seats that UKIP will win at the 2015 GE. If the collective wisdom of pb.com cannot outperform UNS in determining the most profitable bet on those odds then the site will have failed.

    Cameron's challenge is to blunt the advance of UKIP. All that is asked of pb.com is to accurately anticipate its deviation from uniformity.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,060
    Purple surge? Surely the UKIPalypse!

    It must be a good word, as it was brazenly stolen by renowned travel journalist and Thailand enthusiast Mr. Sean Thomas.

    Anyway, good morning, everyone.

    Miss Plato, I'm not that fussed anymore, but as a child I disliked them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Support for the coalition continues its slide:

    Net support:
    22 Apr: -29
    29 Apr: -31
    2 May: -37

    Mainly Con : +7(-26) but also LibDem: +24(-8)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Purple surge? Surely the UKIPalypse!

    It must be a good word, as it was brazenly stolen by renowned travel journalist and Thailand enthusiast Mr. Sean Thomas.

    Anyway, good morning, everyone.

    Miss Plato, I'm not that fussed anymore, but as a child I disliked them.

    Many thanks, Mr Dancer - and surely its Purple Reign right now :^ )
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,060
    Miss Plato, that's rather good.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Is it the QEII's Speech today? If so what time? It's been so widely trailed that I'm getting lost.

    I've seen stuff about immigration, married couples, human rights, EU refs dah-di-dah - that feels pretty social conservative to me.

    If you missed it - Iain Martin [a man I don't agree with very often in his current incarnation], has taken his life in his hands and criticised the online Kipper community...

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100215556/ukip-could-get-to-be-really-quite-annoying/

    "...But for all Nigel Farage's considerable appeal, I do think it is already apparent that the rest of Ukip could get quite quickly to be very tiresome and really quite annoying. To that end, by far the worst habit of the hardened Ukipper is to claim to speak for The British People, a phrase laden with Marxist undertones, as though The People are one body that can be drilled. "The British People are fed-up with… etc."

    It is a very unappealing and un-British notion. I didn't like it when Tony Blair did it, and I don't like it done by anyone, other than perhaps the Queen, who is too smart to do it. When Blair said that Diana was the People's Princess I really, really resented it. Were those of us who didn't agree with that statement not British people? Had there been a memo or a vote that millions of us missed?

    The truth is that the British public is not of one certain mind on the question of the European Union, or much else really. All sorts of people whose opinions I respect – normal people with overcoats, not leading politicians – are unsure about the wisdom of leaving the EU. Only a few of them work for the BBC. They are not traitors to their country, or anti-British types determined to "crush England under the Brussels jack-boot".

    Yet the language of the Ukippers online – so often men and not women, with "handles" such as "saxonsteve", thorofthanet", "wizardofwar" and "fightingforfreedominhispyjamas" – suggests that everyone has decided, and it is only the corrupt/degenerate/authoritarian/traitorous political and media class that stands in the way of freedom. Perhaps those who disagree are suffering from false consciousness?

    ...These points may not be much liked by many full-on Ukippers (*). Indeed, it is curious how those most exercised by political madness gone correct, sorry political correctness gone mad, who are forever saying that their opponents are trying to gag them, really do not like it when they are criticised. They are also – if they keep up this way of talking to the rest of us – only going to do an entirely legitimate cause grave damage by making Euroscepticism sound unreasonable, uncongenial and unhinged.

    (*) I will consider awarding a special prize for any Ukipper who got to the end of this without commenting and can then admit I might have a point. I am not offering a "cast-iron" guarantee of a prize. But I will, circumstances permitting, think about it."

  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    O\T Just been VI'd by You Gov.
    It also included a couple of q's on whether Nadine should be let back in the Tory party.
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    Scott_P said:

    @LabourList: Taking on the emerging UKIP/Tory coalition http://labli.st/ZGcCtE

    Quote: It is vital that this is nipped in the bud. As a start, all Liberal Democrat MPs who currently have Labour candidates in second place, need to be invited to join Labour, or face annihilation at the next General Election.

    Fighting talk. What about LibDems who do not support Labour. where do they go?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 29m

    Membership of #ukip increased from 17,220 in April 2012, to 26,097 in April 2013 ---> http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/34670/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2013
    The political elite once more thinks it doesn't have to pay its way on transport...


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2320812/Sarah-Brown-hugely-upset-hit-80-fine-swiping-Oyster-card-public-transport.html

    I wonder if she swiped her onion by mistake ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,098
    edited May 2013
    Jeez why is it so difficult to understand? @Eek (and many others) had it right. UKIP is the king of NOTA. It _is_ NOTA. Of course if you pin people down you’ll get some kind of answer (guess what? Even then it’s The economy) but it is the hatred, frustration, impotence resulting from a stonking recession (technicalities aside), a rage at the Banksters, Bliars, Broons, Milipedes, Chumocracies, Osbrownes, Gideons, expenses, political classes et al and people are sick of it.

    Thing is, that’s politics. There is no divine right for it all to be ok. And raging at the moon ain’t going to put it right. Nor, I’m afraid, is voting for UKIP. Or The Greens. Or Labour. Ahem.

    And D Cameron is right to have made that quote, crass as it was, and not apologised for it because he is putting distance, despite the best efforts of his back benchers, between him and UKIP. Which is vital.

    Because eventually, when the economy gets better, and people individually feel better (hence employment is a key factor) we will revert to the status quo ante and UKIP will become one more “sign of the times” that these currently crazy years threw up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited May 2013
    Cathy Newman FactChecks yesterday's Lawson vs Clegg:

    http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-is-nigel-lawson-right-about-quitting-the-eu

    "Evidence for Mr Clegg’s specific point – that millions of jobs would be at risk if we left the EU – is pretty weak.

    "It’s difficult to imagine British companies having to cease trading with EU countries in the event of a pull-out, although there would undoubtedly be short-term disruption, and the long-term effects are impossible to predict.

    The most credible estimates of what happens if we leave the EU tend to show only a very small plus or minus, which suggests people on both sides of the debate tend to exaggerate the significance of membership on the British economy."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @Plato:

    BBC State Opening coverage

    From 10:30 BST BBC Two
    Live text on BBC News website from 08:30 BST
    Shelagh Fogarty on Radio 5 live from 11:30 BST
    Live coverage and build-up on BBC News Channel
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Topping

    "UKIP will become one more “sign of the times” that these currently crazy years threw up"

    As a non-Kipper, I increasingly sympathise with them as The Poke Them In The Eye Party. I expect them to do very well next year in the Euros and fade away in the run up to GE2015 - if they poll 8%+ on polling day, I'll be astonished unless things change very badly for HMG.

    It's always the pound in your pocket that matters - and assuming jobs and incomes are looking up, their support and the existential angst/raging against the machine will decline.

    I'm pretty pissed off with the Big Three - but wouldn't vote Kipper at a GE ever.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plato said:

    OT Totally random question - does anyone like clowns? I don't know anybody who does and a few who actively dislike them/think they're creepy.

    For reference - I've just seen an episode of CSI NY that is exactly the same plot as one from the Mentalist [murderer dresses as clown and advertises for loads of other clowns to turn up at the murder scene to confuse the police].

    I love clowns.

    I think it has something to do with Tim Curry's performance as Pennywise.

    I think 'IT' was one of the scariest books I've ever read. I didn't think the film did it any justice at all and if there's any film producers out there it is definitely one for a remake with all the developments in CGI.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,251
    New thread
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    ‏@Donal_Blaney
    A quarter of Tory voters at the last election now back UKIP. A quarter!! When does the love bombing begin? It can't surely wait too long..?

    The UKIP ball keeps rolling....................
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,658
    TOPPING said:

    Jeez why is it so difficult to understand? @Eek (and many others) had it right. UKIP is the king of NOTA. It _is_ NOTA. Of course if you pin people down you’ll get some kind of answer (guess what? Even then it’s The economy) but it is the hatred, frustration, impotence resulting from a stonking recession (technicalities aside), a rage at the Banksters, Bliars, Broons, Milipedes, Chumocracies, Osbrownes, Gideons, expenses, political classes et al and people are sick of it.

    Thing is, that’s politics. There is no divine right for it all to be ok. And raging at the moon ain’t going to put it right. Nor, I’m afraid, is voting for UKIP. Or The Greens. Or Labour. Ahem.

    And D Cameron is right to have made that quote, crass as it was, and not apologised for it because he is putting distance, despite the best efforts of his back benchers, between him and UKIP. Which is vital.

    Because eventually, when the economy gets better, and people individually feel better (hence employment is a key factor) we will revert to the status quo ante and UKIP will become one more “sign of the times” that these currently crazy years threw up.

    Self deceiving nonsense I'm afraid. You hope it will all go back to the staus quo ante, it never does. People's perceptions change and what they would have accept 2 years ago, now they won't. Cameron's problems are essentially self inflicted since he has proved largely inept at party management. As for unemployment, that's only part of the picture, Osborne's inability to raise living standards will hurt just as much, he's the stagflation chancellor.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Blue_Rog

    Tim Curry is such a fantastic character actor - from fishnets as Frankenfurter to the Devil in Legend.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    CarlottaVance said:

    @Plato:

    BBC State Opening coverage

    From 10:30 BST BBC Two
    Live text on BBC News website from 08:30 BST
    Shelagh Fogarty on Radio 5 live from 11:30 BST
    Live coverage and build-up on BBC News Channel

    Many thanx
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,060
    edited May 2013
    Hmm. Unexpected and minor problem with weather forecasts. I use Wunderground and weather-forecast.com to check for the weather ahead of qualifying sessions and races. Typed in Barcelona, and one of the results was for Barcelona in Venezuela. With all due respect to the Venezuelan city, I'm astounded the Spanish one wasn't the result.

    Miss Plato, if UKIP were a clear second to Labour and ahead of the others in this constituency I'd vote for them to try and get rid of Balls.

    Edited extra bit: the forecast is for no rain, by the way. Should help us get a decent picture of how the teams stack up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,844
    I have discovered the true cause of the problems that our country faces.

    Forget Eton and the Bullingdon Club: the problem is that we are being led by a bunch of weak-legged namby-pamby individuals who all went to Oxford.

    Just compare the Bullingdon Club with what happens at the far superior Cambridge university:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2320909/Cambridge-University-drinking-society-cancels-annual-jelly-wrestling-contest-complaints-feminist-students.html

    Now that's the sort of activity that made Britain great!
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