politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip surge to record high in first post-local election YouGov/Sun poll
In the first full YouGov poll carried out after the locals UKIP move to highest level with the firm CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 16%
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Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.
I agree with him.
You appear not to agree.
That's politics.
Con 30, Lab 40, LD 11, UKIP 12
So tonight's poll shows changes of:
Con -1
Lab -1
LD -2
UKIP +4
So again no sign of Con being hit disproportionately.
PB doesn't support AV.
it's pretty meaningless.
The Calculus calculator works on UNS. As UKIP did very modestly at the 2010 election and only polled afew points in almost every seat until they actually start polling in the mid to high 20's they won't stand a chance of getting any seats in such calculators
Furthermore such calculators do not recognise regional and local surges (i.e. such as UKIP getting 40%+ of the vote in the County Council wards that make up Boston & Skegness constituency)
Its the downside of such calculators. They just don't take those sort of things into account.
You see the difference, in terms of British electoral politics?
Yes.
What is insulting about being called a fruitcake, loonie or closet racist?
If I was a kipper I would be pleased my voice had been heard by the nomenklatura.
I am not Prince Hamlet nor was meant to be.
Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.
I agree with him.
You appear not to agree.
That's politics.
The trick, Avery Lympe-Pole, is not minding that it hurts.
Cameron has nothing to apologise for. He believes that kippers are a bunch of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists". These are terms of endearment.
I agree with him.
You appear not to agree.
That's politics.
You seem to have a problem telling the differentiating between politicians and voters (much like David Cameron I suppose). Either that or you are just being obtuse for the hell of it but anyway its no sweat of my nose. I've no problems with Cameron not apologising. Its his choice if Cameron wants to terminate his political career at the earliest opportunity and thats fine with me.
telling the differentiating between politicians and voters
Thurrock in particular is interesting - if the polling is correct and remains this way heading into the GE essentially CON has very little chance in that seat so it would make sense for centre-right/right voters to vote tactically UKIP. The rest of UKIP's targets seem to have fairly big CON majorities at the moment.
that sounds more like it
Cornwall results by division (122 in total):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dC02dFJobkdWY1E1VTBiaWFiN3EwOFE#gid=0
Votes:
Con 34,191
LD 31,074
Ind 28,990
UKIP 21,306
Lab 11,383
MK 6,523
Green 3,957
Lib 143
Others 1,903
Total 139,470
Percentages:
Con 24.51%
LD 22.28%
Ind 20.79%
UKIP 15.28%
Lab 8.16%
MK 4.68%
Green 2.84%
Lib 0.10%
Others 1.36%
Changes since 2010 (although a comparison with 2009 would make more sense):
Con -16.43%
Lab -0.47%
UKIP +10.38%
LD -19.48%
Green +1.57%
MK +2.76%
Ind +20.79%
The strength of Independents in Cornwall make comparisons with the general election awkward.
"Belgium is a real country!" (this seemed to be the main point of the demonstration and the particular aspect of Farage's commentary that had caused them the greatest offence)
"I love Brussels!"
"Belgium makes good chocolate!" (which I am not sure Mr Farage disputed in the first place, but a particularly attractive girl chose to wear this one so I am in no position to complain)
"Van Rompuy is a great President!" (but I am not sure whether she believed it or not. Perhaps she did. She looked very earnest, and perhaps as a consequence, not so aesthetically appealing.)
If Nige wishes to harangue this noble country again I, for one, would be delighted. I would prefer it if he stuck to questioning its existential validity, its choice of capital city, and its fine confectionery produce. Van Rompuy is strictly off-limits. After all he is, so I am told, a great president.
You misunderstand.
The electorate, like individuals, are presented with choices and become responsible for their outcomes.
If the electorate decide to vote Cameron out of office by voting for UKIP and Farage, that is their choice. If they do so on the sole basis that Cameron hasn't "apologised" for "insulting" voters, then that too is their choice.
There is so much petulance to the UKIP surge: a threat that if Cameron doesn't do this; or apologise for that; or call a referendum on this; or dance to our tune on that, then - believe me, we will - we will really, we wil vote for UKIP.
If you want Farage vote for him. If you want Miliband vote for him.
Remember it is you who will be responsible for the outcome.
"Liked".
As MBE so eloquently demonstrated?
Ukip needs to build up robust organisation and round the year campaigning in the areas where it now has councillors. That's how the Greens broke through in Brighton at GE2010.
The electorate, like individuals, are presented with choices and become responsible for their outcomes.
If the electorate decide to vote Cameron out of office by voting for UKIP and Farage, that is their choice. If they do so on the sole basis that Cameron hasn't "apologised" for "insulting" voters, then that too is their choice.
There is so much petulance to the UKIP surge: a threat that if Cameron doesn't do this; or apologise for that; or call a referendum on this; or dance to our tune on that, then - believe me, we will - we will really, we wil vote for UKIP.
If you want Farage vote for him. If you want Miliband vote for him.
Remember it is you who will be responsible for the outcome.
No I dont misunderstand. Funnily enough I was musing today how much it seemed to be the remaining conservatives that are the petulant ones making threats against their leaders or alternatively are the desperate ones (running round like headless chickens seeking evermore implausible ways to recover those UKIP voters). Settled UKIP supporters seem to have already decided what they are going to do.
Similarly, its Conservatives who seem to keep banging on about a pact with UKIP whereas other than Farage's tongue in cheek saying that he will only deal with a Cameron free Tory party (knowing that it's a non-starter), UKIP supporters are not saying a great deal about it other than perhaps agreeing with the likes of Boris Johnson that somewhere down the line the right will likely reunite.
Of course all this has done is further bring to the surface what a collectively dysfunctional, psychologically damaged and broken party the Conservative Party is. The constant bickering and division, the setting up of ever more new factions, indulging in all sorts of intrigue and subterfuge (e.g. Cameron's abortive attempt to hijack the 1922), the fretting and handwringing over their never-ending toxicity and outdatedness and their multitude of electoral problems (their Scottish problem, their Northern problem, their urban problem), the ineptness of their political strategies. It's amazing that they have time to do any politics at all, let alone head a government up.
With that in mind its of little surprise so many have fled to the relative peacefulness of UKIP!
Similarly, its Conservatives who seem to keep banging on about a pact with UKIP whereas other than Farage's tongue in cheek saying that he will only deal with a Cameron free Tory party (knowing that it's a non-starter), UKIP supporters are not saying a great deal about it other than perhaps agreeing with the likes of Boris Johnson that somewhere down the line the right will likely reunite.
Of course all this has done is further bring to the surface what a collectively dysfunctional, psychologically damaged and broken party the Conservative Party is. The constant bickering and division, the setting up of ever more new factions, indulging in all sorts of intrigue and subterfuge (e.g. Cameron's abortive attempt to hijack the 1922), the fretting and handwringing over their never-ending toxicity and outdatedness and their multitude of electoral problems (their Scottish problem, their Northern problem, their urban problem), the ineptness of their political strategies. It's amazing that they have time to do any politics at all, let alone head a government up.
With that in mind its of little surprise so many have fled to the relative peacefulness of UKIP!
And not a positive reason for voting UKIP in the whole post.
Just one long angry whinge.
No one is stopping you voting UKIP. Just as no one stopped the 25% of Italians who voted for Beppe Grillo and his 5 Star Party in Italy.
Just don't expect the financial;markets and the UK's international allies to come to our rescue if the result turns the UK back into the basketcase of Europe.
And don't blame the Tories. It is your choice and your responsibility.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007–2011_Belgian_political_crisis
Just one long angry whinge.
No one is stopping you voting UKIP. Just as no one stopped the 25% of Italians who voted for Beppe Grillo and his 5 Star Party in Italy.
Just don't expect the financial;markets and the UK's international allies to come to our rescue if the result turns the UK back into the basketcase of Europe.
And don't blame the Tories. It is your choice and your responsibility.
And don't blame the Tories. It is your choice and your responsibility
Indeed its always good to prepare your excuses in advance but blaming everyone who probably won't vote for you in advance is not a good way of actually tempting them back. Its not the wisest potential self fulfilling prophecy you could adopt.Not good politics
How on earth you conjured up the idea that there was anger in my post is beyond me? Anger was the last thing on my mind. I'm quite tranquil and at peace with my choices and certainly will not regret them or unfairly blame anyone for anything they haven't done. It would only be a whinge if I had any vested interest in the Tory Party and I don't anymore. Its just an observation for people to make of as they wish. If the rump of the Tory party don't want to listen thats up to them. Its their funeral........
And I did give a positive reason for supporting UKIP in a roundabout way (suggesting it was peaceful). Its far less stressful and frustrating. You should try it. It might lighten your outlook. Not everything is an angry whinge.
Why would 'a former Cambridge and now City Mathematician' waste his and everyone else's time with a wonderfully precise calculation of a quantity which is completely irrelevant?
I moved on to swing-back analysis six or seven years ago for a very good reason ...
Predicting the future is only credible if you can also predict what is going to happen between now and then....
Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unheallthy state of things.
Farage made his comments in February 2010, the demonstration I saw was a little later than this - well after the initial controversy had died down, which is why it took me a while to work out that it was a protest at all, not some sort of "Belgium Awareness Event" led by a tourist board or a university's Benelux Society having a picnic in the park.
It was a bright and sunny day, and the poor girls were not completely freezing in their t-shirts. My travel records show I was working in central London for several days in March and most of April. March was quite cold and very cloudy in London that year; but out of the days I was there, on the 26th it was mild, about 14C, and bright. It's more likely it was in April, when after an early spell of cloud it brightened up and the temperature was regularly about 20C.
As such it's not possible to tell you what state the Belgian government was in! Your memory is deceiving you; van Rompuy's exit did not trigger an interregnum. There had been a smooth transition to Yves Leterme. The government fell in April 2010 on the issue of the constitutional status of Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde, a controversial and long-running sore in Belgium's complicated linguistic (or more to the point, communitarian) politics. And Belgium wasn't without a government, any more than Britain was after the last GE and until the Coalition was formed - it's just that Leterme, like Brown, persisted in office only as a caretaker.
It's just a model showing effect of UNS (***) on seats.
It is for anybody to put in THEIR predicted vote shares and it will give seats based on UNS (***).
But Baxter isn't making any prediction at all re vote shares.
(***) In fact I think he's tweaked it to be a halfway house between UNS and proportional swing.
Essex results by division:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDIySUJiWThFM3gxcWEyNll4Rkx0Mnc#gid=0
Votes:
Con 102,989
UKIP 80,886
Lab 49,026
LD 34,685
Green 14,422
Ind 10,125
Tendring First 4,093
Others 3,024
Total 299,250
Percentages:
Con 34.42%
UKIP 27.03%
Lab 16.38%
LD 11.59%
Green 4.82%
Ind 3.38%
Tendring First 1.37%
Others 1.01%
Only five council areas still to add up:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDFzVlVSWGtOaGlNQllBQjBmVzc0Mnc#gid=0
Nigel Lawson, climate change denier, says we should quit Europe: a very good reason for staying in
Retweeted 169 times"
https://twitter.com/MagnusLinklater/status/331662826009657344
BTW, thanks for the spreadsheets.. I wonder if some sort of centralised local elections website is in order....
OK. We are prepared to accept this loss and get only 39% of the votes !
I think we could work with a majority of just 100.
App: -35
UKIP support mainly from Rest of South and Midlands/Wales and then North. Far less support from London & Scotland.
UKIP:
Issues facing the country:
Immigration: 90%
Economy: 73%
Europe: 49%
Issues facing you and your family:
Economy: 69%
Pensions: 39%
Immigration: 38%
Age Groups: 18-24; 25-39; 40-59; 60+
Would not vote: 13%; 14%; 6%; 5%
Vote UKIP: 10%; 6%; 15%; 28%
Social Grade: ABC1; C2DE
Vote UKIP: 13%; 21%
If UKIP got 24% of the votes in a general election, its votes would no doubt be more efficiently distributed, and more selectively targeted and concentrated in, several areas (e.g. Lincolnshire, Essex, Devon etc.), while completely ignored/collapsed in others (e.g. Scotland, Wales, inner London). In other words, it would win several seats - possibly dozens.
The suggestion that UKIP could get 24% of the votes in a general election but no seats is doubleplusridiculous verging psephocrime.
Carlotta Vance
As Bob Monkhouse said - "They said I'd never be a comedian - they're not laughing now!"
If you're going to tell a joke, tell it properly. What Bob Monkhouse said was "When I said I wanted to be a comedian they laughed at me. They're not laughing now".
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/07/anglo-us-divide-equality/
"psephocrime"
LOL - love it!
The next step is to focus on the silliness of some UKIP positions.
Such as being such civil libertarians who want allow people the freedom to smoke in public but not let them married.
Perhaps UKIP's position will be to ban gays from smoking in public.
For reference - I've just seen an episode of CSI NY that is exactly the same plot as one from the Mentalist [murderer dresses as clown and advertises for loads of other clowns to turn up at the murder scene to confuse the police].
Our latest assh*le prediction is that UKIP will have to get 95% of the poll before they gain one seat:
UKIP: 95% = 001
Con: 2% = 266
Lab: 2.15% = 318
Lib: 0.1% = 44
Oth: 0,05% = 21
I think it has something to do with Tim Curry's performance as Pennywise.
Cameron's challenge is to blunt the advance of UKIP. All that is asked of pb.com is to accurately anticipate its deviation from uniformity.
It must be a good word, as it was brazenly stolen by renowned travel journalist and Thailand enthusiast Mr. Sean Thomas.
Anyway, good morning, everyone.
Miss Plato, I'm not that fussed anymore, but as a child I disliked them.
Net support:
22 Apr: -29
29 Apr: -31
2 May: -37
Mainly Con : +7(-26) but also LibDem: +24(-8)
I've seen stuff about immigration, married couples, human rights, EU refs dah-di-dah - that feels pretty social conservative to me.
If you missed it - Iain Martin [a man I don't agree with very often in his current incarnation], has taken his life in his hands and criticised the online Kipper community...
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100215556/ukip-could-get-to-be-really-quite-annoying/
"...But for all Nigel Farage's considerable appeal, I do think it is already apparent that the rest of Ukip could get quite quickly to be very tiresome and really quite annoying. To that end, by far the worst habit of the hardened Ukipper is to claim to speak for The British People, a phrase laden with Marxist undertones, as though The People are one body that can be drilled. "The British People are fed-up with… etc."
It is a very unappealing and un-British notion. I didn't like it when Tony Blair did it, and I don't like it done by anyone, other than perhaps the Queen, who is too smart to do it. When Blair said that Diana was the People's Princess I really, really resented it. Were those of us who didn't agree with that statement not British people? Had there been a memo or a vote that millions of us missed?
The truth is that the British public is not of one certain mind on the question of the European Union, or much else really. All sorts of people whose opinions I respect – normal people with overcoats, not leading politicians – are unsure about the wisdom of leaving the EU. Only a few of them work for the BBC. They are not traitors to their country, or anti-British types determined to "crush England under the Brussels jack-boot".
Yet the language of the Ukippers online – so often men and not women, with "handles" such as "saxonsteve", thorofthanet", "wizardofwar" and "fightingforfreedominhispyjamas" – suggests that everyone has decided, and it is only the corrupt/degenerate/authoritarian/traitorous political and media class that stands in the way of freedom. Perhaps those who disagree are suffering from false consciousness?
...These points may not be much liked by many full-on Ukippers (*). Indeed, it is curious how those most exercised by political madness gone correct, sorry political correctness gone mad, who are forever saying that their opponents are trying to gag them, really do not like it when they are criticised. They are also – if they keep up this way of talking to the rest of us – only going to do an entirely legitimate cause grave damage by making Euroscepticism sound unreasonable, uncongenial and unhinged.
(*) I will consider awarding a special prize for any Ukipper who got to the end of this without commenting and can then admit I might have a point. I am not offering a "cast-iron" guarantee of a prize. But I will, circumstances permitting, think about it."
It also included a couple of q's on whether Nadine should be let back in the Tory party.
Fighting talk. What about LibDems who do not support Labour. where do they go?
Membership of #ukip increased from 17,220 in April 2012, to 26,097 in April 2013 ---> http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/34670/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2320812/Sarah-Brown-hugely-upset-hit-80-fine-swiping-Oyster-card-public-transport.html
I wonder if she swiped her onion by mistake ?
Thing is, that’s politics. There is no divine right for it all to be ok. And raging at the moon ain’t going to put it right. Nor, I’m afraid, is voting for UKIP. Or The Greens. Or Labour. Ahem.
And D Cameron is right to have made that quote, crass as it was, and not apologised for it because he is putting distance, despite the best efforts of his back benchers, between him and UKIP. Which is vital.
Because eventually, when the economy gets better, and people individually feel better (hence employment is a key factor) we will revert to the status quo ante and UKIP will become one more “sign of the times” that these currently crazy years threw up.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-is-nigel-lawson-right-about-quitting-the-eu
"Evidence for Mr Clegg’s specific point – that millions of jobs would be at risk if we left the EU – is pretty weak.
"It’s difficult to imagine British companies having to cease trading with EU countries in the event of a pull-out, although there would undoubtedly be short-term disruption, and the long-term effects are impossible to predict.
The most credible estimates of what happens if we leave the EU tend to show only a very small plus or minus, which suggests people on both sides of the debate tend to exaggerate the significance of membership on the British economy."
BBC State Opening coverage
From 10:30 BST BBC Two
Live text on BBC News website from 08:30 BST
Shelagh Fogarty on Radio 5 live from 11:30 BST
Live coverage and build-up on BBC News Channel
"UKIP will become one more “sign of the times” that these currently crazy years threw up"
As a non-Kipper, I increasingly sympathise with them as The Poke Them In The Eye Party. I expect them to do very well next year in the Euros and fade away in the run up to GE2015 - if they poll 8%+ on polling day, I'll be astonished unless things change very badly for HMG.
It's always the pound in your pocket that matters - and assuming jobs and incomes are looking up, their support and the existential angst/raging against the machine will decline.
I'm pretty pissed off with the Big Three - but wouldn't vote Kipper at a GE ever.
@Donal_Blaney
A quarter of Tory voters at the last election now back UKIP. A quarter!! When does the love bombing begin? It can't surely wait too long..?
The UKIP ball keeps rolling....................
Tim Curry is such a fantastic character actor - from fishnets as Frankenfurter to the Devil in Legend.
Miss Plato, if UKIP were a clear second to Labour and ahead of the others in this constituency I'd vote for them to try and get rid of Balls.
Edited extra bit: the forecast is for no rain, by the way. Should help us get a decent picture of how the teams stack up.
Forget Eton and the Bullingdon Club: the problem is that we are being led by a bunch of weak-legged namby-pamby individuals who all went to Oxford.
Just compare the Bullingdon Club with what happens at the far superior Cambridge university:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2320909/Cambridge-University-drinking-society-cancels-annual-jelly-wrestling-contest-complaints-feminist-students.html
Now that's the sort of activity that made Britain great!