Avoiding Lucy – politicalbetting.com
Avoiding Lucy – politicalbetting.com
Polling on Lucy Connolly tweet following her release finds that 35% think her sentence too harsh, but the majority of Brits: 52% say it was about right or too lenient. Most 2024 Reform voters say too harsh, Tory voters split harsh or lenient/about right. Most Labour/LD/Green the latter
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You heard it here first!
Note too 35% thinking the Connolly sentence was too harsh may be a minority view but above the current 30% Reform voteshare
There does appear to be a pattern that specific Reform talking points and policies etc have minority appeal when polled; but yet Reform are doing pretty well in VI all things considered. I still think a large part of the next GE is going to come down to ‘feels’ for want of a better word, and if people stick with the mainstream for fear of something worse or feel so fed up they want to roll the dice on something new.
Remember that bit in Conspiracy, when Klopfer asks how many lawyers are present, and more than half raise their hands.
Now there's a flaming header on her. Tut.
About a third of the electorate are currently full-on Faragists. It's what the other two thirds do that matter. Are they going to let him in, or put a lot of pegs on a lot of noses at the next election?
That's something to think about, isn't it.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/what-lucy-one-of-the-worlds-most-important-fossils-has-taught-scientists-in-the-50-years-since-her-discovery-180985541/
https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/australopithecus-afarensis-lucy-species.html
I’d heard of Australopithecus ever since it was card 50 in the Brooke bond tea card set ‘Prehistoric Animals’ but didn’t know her names Lucy
🚨 COURT RULES AGAINST EPPING CLOSURE OF THE BELL HOTEL
The Government is at war with the British people.
We will peacefully protest on Sunday in HUGE numbers, under our democratic right to do so.'
https://x.com/EssexPR/status/1961421972543311948
The mentality required to follow the law on the insurance policies and yet....
Just before I reacquaint myself with Lucy Gresty
I have to report that it was such a dump that me any my colleagues threatened to riot if we were ever put up there again.
Let’s hope it’s torrential rain
'These 3 Labour judges have just ruled that Epping must have unvetted migrant men in their town.
In the same week that Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu, an illegal immigrant being housed there, is on trial for sex attacks on 2 children and a woman.
The government vs the people.'
https://x.com/TRobinsonNewEra/status/1961429404908671305
Out downstairs loo wasn't draining, so I called our friendly local plumber. He arrived within 24 hours, to find out the drain under our property was blocked well downstream. Part of the blockage were some (ahem) large sanitary-style pads that had obviously come from upstream of our house.
Not a pleasant job, and we gave him twenty quid beer money on top of the bill. A very pleasant young chap though, who is golf mad.
Just a few weeks Reform had begun an attempt to target a broader vote. I do wonder if the immigration debate moving further to the right, is going to lower their potential vote ceiling, and strengthen the "anyone but" anti-Reform vote. Something we'll likely not find out till a General election.
Half of Reform's support is driven by racism is the gloomy take but the sunnier one (which I always try to go with) is that half of it isn't.
So some (perhaps many) of the latter can be peeled off depending on developments between now and the GE.
I know we'd both like to see that, me from a Lab perspective and you from a Con one.
@CPhilpOfficial
The Epping case has seen the Labour Government using the courts against the British public
The government even brazenly said in court that the rights of illegal immigrants were more important than the rights of local people
The numbers in asylum hotels were dropping fast before the election - but have risen since because Labour has lost control of our borders
We need a proper deterrent so that all illegal immigrants are immediately removed on arrival. Then no one would bother crossing in the first place. We had a plan to do this - the Rwanda plan - but Labour scrapped it just before it was due to start. And as a result, numbers crossing the channel are now the worst ever
We have a full blown border crisis and public safety crisis - but this government is too weak to take the action needed to fix it"
https://x.com/CPhilpOfficial/status/1961438588240797705
Stop the boats and you remove the toxicity
It may require us to temporarily leave the ECHR, but this is becoming far more widely supported including in the labour party
At one point, Freisler yelled at Field Marshal Erwin von Witzleben, who was trying to hold up his trousers after being purposely given old, oversized and beltless clothing: "You dirty old man, why do you keep fiddling with your trousers?"
https://www.which.co.uk/reviews/uk-hotel-chains/article/hotel-star-ratings-explained-a0bgV3M8kfx2
And some of us might like toi see this explanation:
https://www.which.co.uk/reviews/uk-hotel-chains/article/hotel-star-ratings-explained-a0bgV3M8kfx2
"4 star hotel (all of the above, plus...)
Very good social skills and anticipation of individual guests' needs evident
Booking confirmation provided by email/text or letter from hotel (not only from third party booking site)
Assistance with luggage offered on arrival and advertised as available for departure
Laundry and possibly dry cleaning service provided and advertised with prices
Courteous, unobtrusive and polite restaurant staff demonstrate very good levels of food, beverage and wine product knowledge and service skills
Restaurant staff demonstrate proactive service, anticipating customer requirements
Table service advertised and available on request at breakfast
Room service should be provided and delivered to the room where there is a market need
All bedrooms with a higher degree of spaciousness
Individually controlled thermostatic heating operable 24-hours"
However we do need a sensible immigration policy, but it will not get a hearing as long as the boats keep coming and hotels are used
It’s just not in your regular Labour backbencher’s language.
‘The legal system we have and the rule of law are far more responsible for our traditional liberties than any system of one man one vote. Any country or government which wants to proceed towards tyranny starts to undermine legal rights and undermine the law.’
Hence the exchange between the robber chief Bulla Felix and Papinian.
"Why are you a brigand?"
"Well, why are you a magistrate?"
Marianne Faithfull version of course.
What was the procedure for the children on the Kindertransport?
... for many, they're not the problem.
Oh, no, I forgot, they're not fit for human habitation.
The Battle of Epping Forest,
It's the Battle of Epping Forest,
Right outside your door.
You ain't seen nothing like it.
No, you ain't seen nothing like it,
Not since the Civil War.
There will be another court case in October which will decide if the use of the hotel in Epping to house asylum seekers is a material change of use from its being a hotel such that the council will then be able to block it having planning permission
72% of Reform voters want to leave the ECHR though as do 54% of Tories
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/survey-results/daily/2025/06/06/7bca7/1
The question is whether planning is needed for the change of use and if the court decides it is then the planning department will need to consider the issue and impose any restrictions if they are compatible with the planning law
It does not follow Epping can block the planning just they would need to make a planning decision
Makes Trump's decision to thwart all Biden's efforts to crack down on border crossings and then blaming him for not cracking down on border crossings look amateurish by comparison.
Epping do not come out of this well despite @HYUFD protestations
Creating a legal route to acquire asylum seeker status would stop the boats overnight.
I will see if I can write about this, but the split is really major among young Dems vs young Republicans. The divide declines heavily with age.
For voters under 30 re: "would you cut family off for opposing political views"...
GOP: 77-23 "No"
Dems: 74-26 "Yes"
https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1961458072729334197
If I want to block book a hotel for my family and friends for a weekend, I believe that is allowed. If I want to stay in a hotel indefinitely, I think that is allowed too - is there any restriction on the number of days I can stay consecutively before I'm deemed to be a permanent resident? Does it matter? I think the Major was a resident at Fawlty Towers, has there been a change since the 70s? Assuming it is legal to block book a hotel, and stay indefinitely, why shouldn't both be allowed? I don't see why that should be a planning issue.
I would have thought, in any case, that a Hotel was generally more detrimental to an area than an HMO. I can say this as someone who has lived in a road with both - there was certainly more noise and activity from the hotel than from any of the HMOs. And if the bar is no longer open, that is an improvement too. The only objection seems to be the people who are staying there, which in my opinion should be nobody's business except the proprietor's.
Using home office funds to become effectively a migrant hostel not a hotel also effectively makes you a public sector body no longer a private company needing bills from paying members of the public rather than taxpayer funds to remain open
Rather like Bluesky which is now basically a liberal left echo chamber some will now only live and work in urban left liberal enclaves and even only socialise or discuss online with left liberals. It also makes nations even more divided than they are