Who else might go? Eric Pickles got a black mark for his handling of the floods and Iain Duncan Smith hasn't exactly got the universal credit off to a flying start. They might be worth covering, especially Mr P.
Eric's the most visible northern Tory in a government full of southern ex-public school boys, and he's liked by the grass roots. It would be lunacy to move him on.
As I said, I'm not betting. I can't understand why David Cameron hasn't made much more use of Eric Pickles and why he hasn't promoted more bluff northerners. It's a major weakness of his government.
Indeed it is. It's harmed the party north of Birmingham.
[I forgot about Hague in my post about visible northerners - although Eric is visible from a lot further away than William]
To go back to the last thread, which I missed, here's some inside info.
I spoke to a Cornish friend recently, about the GE. He's intimately involved in Cornish politics and he's not a Tory.
He reckoned the LDs could easily lose all three seats in Cornwall, and the Tories could make a clean sweep: as the LDs lefty vote has collapsed and gone to Labour, and UKIP aren't taking away enough Tory votes to compensate. And the Cornish are now more aware of Lib Dem europhilia.
One caution: he dislikes the LDs, so he may be injecting some wish-fulfilment, nonetheless he knows what he's talking about. And he was adamant.
I think the LibDems will probably end up losing 10+% of their votes in each of the three Cornish seats.
The question is - will UKIP knock 10% or so off the Conservative vote too?
If they do, then you could end up with a number of seats that were previous 50/40/5/5 going 35/30/25/5
Not sure your maths are entirely right? Who is suddenly on 25?
Anyhoo, let's take an actual example. St Austell and Newquay.
As we can see the LDs held this with 20, 189 votes over the Tories with 18,877.
If my friend is right, and all else is roughly equal, the LDs can expect to lose at least 20% of their vote to Labour (and others), while the Tories would lose maybe 10% to UKIP.
Such a result would see the Tories narrowly winning the seat with approximately 17,000 votes over the LDs with 16,000. Labour and UKIP are so far behind their gains would not matter.
So I can understand my friend's logic. It's also worth noting that Cornwall is stuffed with pensioners who will be pleased by the Osborne reforms. A Tory Cornish clean sweep is not inconceivable.
That's quite possible - it all depends on whether the Libs can gain back some of the Labourites, and on whether the Conservatives get some of the UKIPpers back.
The only seat I am sure the Libs will hold in Devon and Cornwall is North Devon.
"I can't understand why David Cameron hasn't made much more use of Eric Pickles and why he hasn't promoted more bluff northerners"
I expect it is because such people didn't go the right schools and don't get invited to the right dinner parties (Samantha probably writes NOSD against their names on prospective invitation lists).
Fecking hell, we spent £55million on Carroll and Downing.
I'm never confident against Allardyce teams. It'll be tricky?
Would a non-Tory minister not have faced far more pressure than Maria Miller has? Is the right wing press going soft? Trying to prevent the investigation and then needing to apologise hardly looks great.
I think it is worth remembering that if Maria Miller were to resign or be sacked she would remain in employment on the very generous package described by Mr Bond. She receives a second salary because she has the honour and the privilige of being a minister as well.
The facts around her claims are complicated but they are not that complicated. Essentially she got a further advance on her mortgage to do up her house and sought repayment of the interest from the taxpayer. This is something she was not entitled to.
More seriously, the Committee found that she had deliberately and repeatedly sought to delay or obstruct the investigation into this and failed to provide the information that had been requested. That in itself was a breach of the code and what she had to apologise for. The right to silence of an accused is not apposite to someone who receives these additional payments or holds such a position.
Unfortunately I don't think politicians even now get it. They continue to allow the perception that there are different rules apply to them. Plus she is frankly useless. Cameron has made a big mistake in not being seen to be tough on this and holding ministers to a proper standard.
Like I said, this running 2 homes nonsense just has to stop.
Particularly when MP's like Miller have constituencies within an easy commute of London. The Fast Train from Waterloo to Basingstoke is a 45 minute journey. 1000's of her constituents manage it every day.
As much as I love Strictly Come Dancing, Bruce Forsyth's greatest ever moment was when he guest presenter on Have I Got News For You in 2003, and they had a round called
- Even more astonishingly they keep it even if they return to work. In theory an ex-MP could return to the Commons and collect both a fully-vested pension and the salary
Nonsense. Where do you get this stuff?
You are NOT entitled to a pension unless you both (a) are no longer an MP and (b) clearly state that you have no intention of ever standing again. Should you change your mind and be re-elected, your pension will be suspended.
You are however entitled to a pension if you are doing some other job (which is the same as anywhere else, I think?. The reason I'm wryly familiar with these regulations is that I have a financial interest in not being elected, since in that case I will indeed get both pension and non-Parliamentary salary from my current non-political job. I'm sure you wish me the more financially beneficial outcome :-).
Regarding this whole affair, why on Earth do we have a system where politicians are allowed to effectively have interest free mortgages on second homes at the taxpayer's expense? It's ridiculous this many years after the expense scandal that people are still able to profit on the public purse.
To go back to the last thread, which I missed, here's some inside info.
I spoke to a Cornish friend recently, about the GE. He's intimately involved in Cornish politics and he's not a Tory.
He reckoned the LDs could easily lose all three seats in Cornwall, and the Tories could make a clean sweep: as the LDs lefty vote has collapsed and gone to Labour, and UKIP aren't taking away enough Tory votes to compensate. And the Cornish are now more aware of Lib Dem europhilia.
One caution: he dislikes the LDs, so he may be injecting some wish-fulfilment, nonetheless he knows what he's talking about. And he was adamant.
I think the LibDems will probably end up losing 10+% of their votes in each of the three Cornish seats.
The question is - will UKIP knock 10% or so off the Conservative vote too?
If they do, then you could end up with a number of seats that were previous 50/40/5/5 going 35/30/25/5
Not sure your maths are entirely right? Who is suddenly on 25?
Anyhoo, let's take an actual example. St Austell and Newquay.
As we can see the LDs held this with 20, 189 votes over the Tories with 18,877.
If my friend is right, and all else is roughly equal, the LDs can expect to lose at least 20% of their vote to Labour (and others), while the Tories would lose maybe 10% to UKIP.
Such a result would see the Tories narrowly winning the seat with approximately 17,000 votes over the LDs with 16,000. Labour and UKIP are so far behind their gains would not matter.
So I can understand my friend's logic. It's also worth noting that Cornwall is stuffed with pensioners who will be pleased by the Osborne reforms. A Tory Cornish clean sweep is not inconceivable.
St Austell has had a LD/Liberal MP since 1974. The LDs won't go down there without an enormous fight.
I don't know how anyone can interpret it any other way. Labour supported including Farage. Then he debated Nick Clegg and wiped the floor with him. The day after the second debate, Labour opposed his inclusion.
Nah the generation game shows were just genius. The way he let the guests be the stars was amazing. In a way, it was the start of reality TV as we know it.
Oh, while I think of it, a snippet picked up the other day. Francis Maude is to be kicked upstairs and the new Conservative candidate for his seat in the 2015 GE will be James Horden (son of Sir Peter, former MP for Horsham). You heard it here first.
To go back to the last thread, which I missed, here's some inside info.
I spoke to a Cornish friend recently, about the GE. He's intimately involved in Cornish politics and he's not a Tory.
He reckoned the LDs could easily lose all three seats in Cornwall, and the Tories could make a clean sweep: as the LDs lefty vote has collapsed and gone to Labour, and UKIP aren't taking away enough Tory votes to compensate. And the Cornish are now more aware of Lib Dem europhilia.
One caution: he dislikes the LDs, so he may be injecting some wish-fulfilment, nonetheless he knows what he's talking about. And he was adamant.
I think the LibDems will probably end up losing 10+% of their votes in each of the three Cornish seats.
The question is - will UKIP knock 10% or so off the Conservative vote too?
If they do, then you could end up with a number of seats that were previous 50/40/5/5 going 35/30/25/5
Not sure your maths are entirely right? Who is suddenly on 25?
Anyhoo, let's take an actual example. St Austell and Newquay.
As we can see the LDs held this with 20, 189 votes over the Tories with 18,877.
If my friend is right, and all else is roughly equal, the LDs can expect to lose at least 20% of their vote to Labour (and others), while the Tories would lose maybe 10% to UKIP.
Such a result would see the Tories narrowly winning the seat with approximately 17,000 votes over the LDs with 16,000. Labour and UKIP are so far behind their gains would not matter.
So I can understand my friend's logic. It's also worth noting that Cornwall is stuffed with pensioners who will be pleased by the Osborne reforms. A Tory Cornish clean sweep is not inconceivable.
Your friend is living in cloud cuckoo land . You only have to look at the 2013 UA results by parliamentary constituency to see that Cornwall North is a certain Lib Dem hold . Other seats are more problematic because of the large number of Independent votes . St Ives could conceivably be a Conservative gain based on those results but equally as likely would be a Lib Dem gain in Cornwall South East .
Who else might go? Eric Pickles got a black mark for his handling of the floods and Iain Duncan Smith hasn't exactly got the universal credit off to a flying start. They might be worth covering, especially Mr P.
Eric's the most visible northern Tory in a government full of southern ex-public school boys, and he's liked by the grass roots. It would be lunacy to move him on.
I'd bring Nadine Dorries, Peter Bone, and Philip Davies into the Cabinet.
What's Cameron's problem? Presumably he'd want to replace her with a woman to avoid the chauvinism claims. Doesn't he trust any? Wouldn't Soubry be an obvious choice given her media experience? She likes taking on Farage as well.
"I can't understand why David Cameron hasn't made much more use of Eric Pickles and why he hasn't promoted more bluff northerners"
I expect it is because such people didn't go the right schools and don't get invited to the right dinner parties (Samantha probably writes NOSD against their names on prospective invitation lists).
Then Rory Stewart fits the bill perfectly. He's an ex-Etonian so he fits in well with Dave's crowd, yet he hails from Scotland (although born in Hong Kong), and represents a northern English constituency. He's been a best-selling author, a tutor of royalty, and an ex-governor of an Iraqi province.
He's an epic long-distance walker. A bit like me, although he's far less scruffy.
His record is far more impressive than most ministers, yet alone MPs.
On the downside, I'm not sure he'd take fools gladly. If I was to be cruel, I'd say that perhaps he wouldn't fit into this cabinet for that reason ...
Regarding this whole affair, why on Earth do we have a system where politicians are allowed to effectively have interest free mortgages on second homes at the taxpayer's expense? It's ridiculous this many years after the expense scandal that people are still able to profit on the public purse.
Yes.
We should simply have a large, comfortable, building (or several buildings) with 2 bedroom apartments in, which MPs get a change to use. (Maybe there should be some three or four bedroom flats if an MP wants to pay something on top themselves). Nothing fancy, the equivalent of a 4* hotel, not the Ritz. You could then abolish all housing allowances and the like altogether.
Even in 1997, when Labour polled 44% nationally, they could only manage 15% in Truro & St Austell. I'd be surprised if they get more than 15% in St Austell & Newquay in 2015: they were on 7% last time.
What do you think would be the outcome if a member of the public had overclaimed on housing benefit to a similar amount?
It depends. If someone honestly and openly claims for housing benefit, hiding nothing, and the claim is approved and paid for years, and then subsequently it turns out that for some obscure reason which no-one had recognised at the time, the claim should not have been approved under the rules, then I would expect no action to be taken retrospectively.
This case is not even that, though - the Committee finds (and I think their conclusion is sound) that the claim was within the rules.
A committee of people in the same job, many of whom have been in on the expense wheeze for years, after the independent body gets overruled.
It's like a policeman accused of assault being investigated by his fellow officers.
And even if it was technically in the rules, its still clearly unethical, but once again Cameron protects his mates.
Do we all agree that two real benefits of a coalition in the House of Commons have been;
a) a fixed five year term and
b) Ministers are shuffled less frequently?
Is this a good enough reason to vote Lib Dem incumbents back in at the next election?
Danny Alexander and Steve Webb have both performed their roles - both in government and the coalition - with distinction. Were either of them my MP, I would seriously consider lending them my vote.
I don't know how anyone can interpret it any other way. Labour supported including Farage. Then he debated Nick Clegg and wiped the floor with him. The day after the second debate, Labour opposed his inclusion.
There were a lot of people on here talking up Cameron dodging the debates, and then Ed selflessly jumps on the UKIP grenade. Maybe it was painted like this:
Do we all agree that two real benefits of a coalition in the House of Commons have been;
a) a fixed five year term and
b) Ministers are shuffled less frequently?
Is this a good enough reason to vote Lib Dem incumbents back in at the next election?
No, five years is too long. It ought to be four years at the most.
The big argument in favour of five years was long term planning — but look at HS2: they still haven't voted on it yet.
Also — the boundaries at the next election will be 15 years out of date, the worst ever. That's something which should have been sorted out during a five year term IMO.
I don't know how anyone can interpret it any other way. Labour supported including Farage. Then he debated Nick Clegg and wiped the floor with him. The day after the second debate, Labour opposed his inclusion.
There were a lot of people on here talking up Cameron dodging the debates, and then Ed selflessly jumps on the UKIP grenade. Maybe it was painted like this:
"Did today Ed Miliband make the greatest strategic and tactical mistake since Emperor Palpatine allowed the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star?
Surely it was wiser for him to let Dave to take the rap for not letting Farage into the debates?"
David_Evershed - I'm not sure about fixed term parliaments. But if we're going to have them it should be 4 years not 5. Personally I wouldn't have gone to fixed terms but removed the PM's ability to use the royal prerogative to dissolve parliament. Should be on a Parliamentary vote.
Do we all agree that two real benefits of a coalition in the House of Commons have been;
a) a fixed five year term and
b) Ministers are shuffled less frequently?
Is this a good enough reason to vote Lib Dem incumbents back in at the next election?
Danny Alexander and Steve Webb have both performed their roles - both in government and the coalition - with distinction. Were either of them my MP, I would seriously consider lending them my vote.
On the other side of the coin, my Mp Dr Huppert has never missed an oppo to slate the Con part of the coalition. I won't be lending him my vote - even if it means the Labour candidate wins - Huppert has done nothing to woo me.
A committee of people in the same job, many of whom have been in on the expense wheeze for years, after the independent body gets overruled.
It's like a policeman accused of assault being investigated by his fellow officers.
And even if it was technically in the rules, its still clearly unethical, but once again Cameron protects his mates.
Oh, for heaven's sake - have you actually read the report?
- What, exactly, was unethical? The fact that her parents had long lived with her to help look after the family?
- What's it got to do with Cameron? It was a committee of backbenchers, chaired by a Labour MP, and with three lay members, which (unanimously) found that she had not acted improperly.
- And if you think they are wrong, please explain the flaw in their reasoning
- And in what world is Maria Miller one of Cameron's 'mates'?
David_Evershed - I'm not sure about fixed term parliaments. But if we're going to have them it should be 4 years not 5. Personally I wouldn't have gone to fixed terms but removed the PM's ability to use the royal prerogative to dissolve parliament. Should be on a Parliamentary vote.
The shorter the interval, the greater opportunities for betting... or am I thinking about this the wrong way...
Does anyone know if we are getting an indyref poll? There has been an odd hiatus since CurrencyGaffe.
If I were a Nat I'd suspect a conspiracy by unionist pollsters; but then again, if I were a Nat I'd suspect a unionist conspiracy eight times an hour, anyway.
Nonetheless, a poll would be nice.
Well, you can forgive the Nats, and, more generally, the pro-indy supporters, for wondering just a wee bit. Most of the surveys are commissioned by the media (de facto almost 100% unionist) and the parties (75% on one count) and campaigns (50%). A bit of crowdfunding does help, but hardly compensates.
I'm much saddened by the passing of Margo MacDonald.
Although I fundamentally disagreed with her vision of an independent Scotland, she was without doubt a titan of Scottish politics.
In a political age largely dominated by drab grey men Margo MacDonald was a vibrant, colourful and fiercely independent woman much and loyally loved by a wide range of the people.
Scottish public life is considerably diminished with her passing.
So I have been trying to think of a radical tax policy that the cons could offer at the election, the bestone iIcan hthink of is to make employers NICs progressive. The way I would have it work is to have ab employment threshold much like there is for income tax. No employer's NIC for the first 10 employees for small businesses. It would encourage employment, investment and pay rises. It would cost a fair bit, but I believe that some of it would be recouped via a more dynamic economy and higher employment and the rest would have to come from cuts in welfare.
I'm much saddened by the passing of Margo MacDonald.
Although I fundamentally disagreed with her vision of an independent Scotland, she was without doubt a titan of Scottish politics.
In a political age largely dominated by drab grey men Margo MacDonald was a vibrant, colourful and fiercely independent woman much and loyally loved by a wide range of the people.
Scottish public life is considerably diminished with her passing.
"I can't understand why David Cameron hasn't made much more use of Eric Pickles and why he hasn't promoted more bluff northerners"
I expect it is because such people didn't go the right schools and don't get invited to the right dinner parties (Samantha probably writes NOSD against their names on prospective invitation lists).
Then Rory Stewart fits the bill perfectly. He's an ex-Etonian so he fits in well with Dave's crowd, yet he hails from Scotland (although born in Hong Kong), and represents a northern English constituency. He's been a best-selling author, a tutor of royalty, and an ex-governor of an Iraqi province.
He's an epic long-distance walker. A bit like me, although he's far less scruffy.
His record is far more impressive than most ministers, yet alone MPs.
On the downside, I'm not sure he'd take fools gladly. If I was to be cruel, I'd say that perhaps he wouldn't fit into this cabinet for that reason ...
Exactly, Mr. J., Rory Stewart has done things in his life and doesn't suffer fools, so of course Samantha is going to mark him as "Not our sort, Dear". Had he been a SpAd, turned MP with no life experience I expect Cameron would have had him in the Cabinet by now.
- Even more astonishingly they keep it even if they return to work. In theory an ex-MP could return to the Commons and collect both a fully-vested pension and the salary
Nonsense. Where do you get this stuff?
Oh, and in case you wonder whether the pension increases if you take it later because you're still an MP, the answer is no - you simply lose the pension you would have got, permanently - unlike many schemes it doesn't have a "take it later, get more" option. For instance, if I'm elected next year and serve 5 years, I'll forfeit £20000*5=£100,000.
I'm not complaining - nobody forced me to stand again. But there's too much ill-informed stuff about MPs put forward as fact.
"It's also worth noting that Cornwall is stuffed with pensioners who will be pleased by the Osborne reforms"
These are Steve Webb's reforms, the Lib Dem Pension Minister
The reforms that are popular are the relaxation of the requirement to annuitise. This was a Tory manifesto pledge and is a HMT rather than DWP policy area. I dont see how Webb can be given the credit for it. Mind you I dont know why pensioners would like it, too late for them.
I hope the suggestions of Anna Soubry or Esther McVey getting promoted to the Cabinet prove correct, purely so there's a chance of a Tory cabinet minister losing their seat at the next election. Right now, of the current cabinet, there's no prospect whatsoever of any scalps: I think the best chance is Theresa Villiers, and even she's sitting on a majority of 12,000.
So I have been trying to think of a radical tax policy that the cons could offer at the election, the bestone iIcan hthink of is to make employers NICs progressive. The way I would have it work is to have ab employment threshold much like there is for income tax. No employer's NIC for the first 10 employees for small businesses. It would encourage employment, investment and pay rises. It would cost a fair bit, but I believe that some of it would be recouped via a more dynamic economy and higher employment and the rest would have to come from cuts in welfare.
Too radical PB?
Not radical enough. Merge NIC's and Income Tax and cut away a vast behemoth of Employed vs Self-Employed admin for both HMRC and business's
David_Evershed - I'm not sure about fixed term parliaments. But if we're going to have them it should be 4 years not 5. Personally I wouldn't have gone to fixed terms but removed the PM's ability to use the royal prerogative to dissolve parliament. Should be on a Parliamentary vote.
The shorter the interval, the greater opportunities for betting... or am I thinking about this the wrong way...
Be one reason to move to Italy, aside from the weather.
Southampton to defeat City @ 9/1 (Saturday 12.45pm kick off)
Stoke to defeat Chelsea @ 14/1
Everton to defeat Arsenal @ 6/4
West Ham to defeat Liverpool @ 8/1 - As a Liverpool fan, I can see it now, our title charge dashed by old boys Downing and Carroll.
Just scanning through so might have missed it - but do you have a view on Newcastle v Man Utd?
Newcastle not to win. Probably a Man U win.
I think Barcodes have only scored one goal in their last 4 matches.
Indeed. 1 Goal and 1 Clean sheet in the last 4 matches (both against Palace so it doesn't really count). I was thinking that Utd might have over exerted in mid-week leading to an unexpectedly weak approach from them. Almost certainly supporter bias which I think that you have confirmed...
I'm much saddened by the passing of Margo MacDonald.
Although I fundamentally disagreed with her vision of an independent Scotland, she was without doubt a titan of Scottish politics.
In a political age largely dominated by drab grey men Margo MacDonald was a vibrant, colourful and fiercely independent woman much and loyally loved by a wide range of the people.
Scottish public life is considerably diminished with her passing.
RIP.
Agreed.
Ditto, a truly independent mind. Sad to have lost her with the finishing post in sight.
Southampton to defeat City @ 9/1 (Saturday 12.45pm kick off)
Stoke to defeat Chelsea @ 14/1
Everton to defeat Arsenal @ 6/4
West Ham to defeat Liverpool @ 8/1 - As a Liverpool fan, I can see it now, our title charge dashed by old boys Downing and Carroll.
Just scanning through so might have missed it - but do you have a view on Newcastle v Man Utd?
Newcastle not to win. Probably a Man U win.
I think Barcodes have only scored one goal in their last 4 matches.
Indeed. 1 Goal and 1 Clean sheet in the last 4 matches (both against Palace so it doesn't really count). I was thinking that Utd might have over exerted in mid-week leading to an unexpectedly weak approach from them. Almost certainly supporter bias which I think that you have confirmed...
You've always got a chance against a team that has Fellani in it.
The way I can see Newcastle winning tomorrow is, is if Man U rest players tomorrow for the second leg against the Bavarians of Munchen.
Edit: Don't diss Palace, even Chelsea lost to them without scoring, a result that made me made soooooooooooooo happy.
So I have been trying to think of a radical tax policy that the cons could offer at the election, the bestone iIcan hthink of is to make employers NICs progressive. The way I would have it work is to have ab employment threshold much like there is for income tax. No employer's NIC for the first 10 employees for small businesses. It would encourage employment, investment and pay rises. It would cost a fair bit, but I believe that some of it would be recouped via a more dynamic economy and higher employment and the rest would have to come from cuts in welfare.
Off topic, it's the Hungarian general election this weekend. Anyone wanting to read up on another country's campaign could do a lot worse than looking here:
Right now, of the current cabinet, there's no prospect whatsoever of any scalps: I think the best chance is Theresa Villiers, and even she's sitting on a majority of 12,000.
I stand corrected: David Jones (who I'd honestly never heard of, but is apparently the Welsh Secretary) is the Cabinet minister with most chance of losing their seat, in Clwyd West, with a 6000 majority and Labour needing an 8.4% swing to take it. Still pretty unlikely.
Do we all agree that two real benefits of a coalition in the House of Commons have been;
a) a fixed five year term and
b) Ministers are shuffled less frequently?
Is this a good enough reason to vote Lib Dem incumbents back in at the next election?
Danny Alexander and Steve Webb have both performed their roles - both in government and the coalition - with distinction. Were either of them my MP, I would seriously consider lending them my vote.
Sshhhhhh .... whisper it quietly ...
But in his day I might have been prevailed upon .... might I force myself .... against all historical precedent .... to turn the pencil in the direction of ....
- Even more astonishingly they keep it even if they return to work. In theory an ex-MP could return to the Commons and collect both a fully-vested pension and the salary
Nonsense. Where do you get this stuff?
Oh, and in case you wonder whether the pension increases if you take it later because you're still an MP, the answer is no - you simply lose the pension you would have got, permanently - unlike many schemes it doesn't have a "take it later, get more" option. For instance, if I'm elected next year and serve 5 years, I'll forfeit £20000*5=£100,000.
I'm not complaining - nobody forced me to stand again. But there's too much ill-informed stuff about MPs put forward as fact.
You were an MP for 13 years, and you get that sort of pension already?
Fecking hell, we spent £55million on Carroll and Downing.
I'm never confident against Allardyce teams. It'll be tricky?
Would a non-Tory minister not have faced far more pressure than Maria Miller has? Is the right wing press going soft? Trying to prevent the investigation and then needing to apologise hardly looks great.
It's the opposition who really appear to be giving her an easy ride at the moment. Depressingly, I suspect that this is because, should Miller go, they're worried about where next the investigative spotlight will be turned. Maybe I'm just a hopeless idealist, but I think £65K is a pretty decent salary, and that if that's what you're paid, you don't really need to supplement your income with an expenses-underwritten property portfolio.
So, I blame the MPs rather than the press here. The Telegraph certainly seem to be on her case (which of course might have something to do with the threats apparently issued from her office).
Hopefully, if she's still around in 2015, the voters of Basingstoke will deliver an unambiguous people's verdict on her troughing. But the precedent of 2010 is not that encouraging when you have a trougher in a safe seat. Hazel Blears comes to mind as one of the egregiously unpunished from last time around.
Off Topic Quebec General Election is on Monday 7th April . The polls whilst varying quite a bit in their figures are clearly pointing to a sweeping Liberal victory and overall majority . Polls before PQ called the election were showing that PQ would be re elected .
David_Evershed - I'm not sure about fixed term parliaments. But if we're going to have them it should be 4 years not 5. Personally I wouldn't have gone to fixed terms but removed the PM's ability to use the royal prerogative to dissolve parliament. Should be on a Parliamentary vote.
The shorter the interval, the greater opportunities for betting... or am I thinking about this the wrong way...
Ah yes, yearly Parliaments - the last unfulfilled demand of the Chartists...and as you rightly say, punters too!
Actually I've always been rather tempted by rolling annual elections with (say) a fifth of the HoC up for re-election in may on a rolling basis. Long term planning is possible as you eliminate the very politicised and therefore less productive first and last year we get from the current situation.
David_Evershed - I'm not sure about fixed term parliaments. But if we're going to have them it should be 4 years not 5. Personally I wouldn't have gone to fixed terms but removed the PM's ability to use the royal prerogative to dissolve parliament. Should be on a Parliamentary vote.
The shorter the interval, the greater opportunities for betting... or am I thinking about this the wrong way...
Ah yes, yearly Parliaments - the last unfulfilled demand of the Chartists...and as you rightly say, punters too!
Actually I've always been rather tempted by rolling annual elections with (say) a fifth of the HoC up for re-election in may on a rolling basis. Long term planning is possible as you eliminate the very politicised and therefore less productive first and last year we get from the current situation.
You should hear rcs's suggestion - 2 by-elections each week which are totally random (ie picked out of a hat...) Punters dream!
"I can't understand why David Cameron hasn't made much more use of Eric Pickles and why he hasn't promoted more bluff northerners"
I expect it is because such people didn't go the right schools and don't get invited to the right dinner parties (Samantha probably writes NOSD against their names on prospective invitation lists).
Then Rory Stewart fits the bill perfectly. He's an ex-Etonian so he fits in well with Dave's crowd, yet he hails from Scotland (although born in Hong Kong), and represents a northern English constituency. He's been a best-selling author, a tutor of royalty, and an ex-governor of an Iraqi province.
He's an epic long-distance walker. A bit like me, although he's far less scruffy.
His record is far more impressive than most ministers, yet alone MPs.
On the downside, I'm not sure he'd take fools gladly. If I was to be cruel, I'd say that perhaps he wouldn't fit into this cabinet for that reason ...
Exactly, Mr. J., Rory Stewart has done things in his life and doesn't suffer fools, so of course Samantha is going to mark him as "Not our sort, Dear". Had he been a SpAd, turned MP with no life experience I expect Cameron would have had him in the Cabinet by now.
That too is rather depressingly accurate. Rory Stewart is the most thoughtful and intelligent man in Parliament at the moment. A properly-functioning democracy would be making use of his talents.
"I can't understand why David Cameron hasn't made much more use of Eric Pickles and why he hasn't promoted more bluff northerners"
I expect it is because such people didn't go the right schools and don't get invited to the right dinner parties (Samantha probably writes NOSD against their names on prospective invitation lists).
Then Rory Stewart fits the bill perfectly. He's an ex-Etonian so he fits in well with Dave's crowd, yet he hails from Scotland (although born in Hong Kong), and represents a northern English constituency. He's been a best-selling author, a tutor of royalty, and an ex-governor of an Iraqi province.
He's an epic long-distance walker. A bit like me, although he's far less scruffy.
His record is far more impressive than most ministers, yet alone MPs.
On the downside, I'm not sure he'd take fools gladly. If I was to be cruel, I'd say that perhaps he wouldn't fit into this cabinet for that reason ...
Exactly, Mr. J., Rory Stewart has done things in his life and doesn't suffer fools, so of course Samantha is going to mark him as "Not our sort, Dear". Had he been a SpAd, turned MP with no life experience I expect Cameron would have had him in the Cabinet by now.
My guess is that Cameron is trying to delay her exit until the next reshuffle in 7+ weeks time. That is a mistake. The stuff in the media indicates that she is a prize A trougher.
What I do not know is what the extent of the "disabity" is of her parents. If she is actually supporting them at home, should we acknowledge that? There may even be a massive saving on local authority care home fees. Circa £50k pa. No defence, but just putting a compassionate view and a financial view.
Just a trougher filling her boots, no excuse , if she had been on benefits she would be in jail by now. Westminster is rotten to the core.
Re: Miller - ultimately she has been found not guilty. Perhaps best to chalk it up to experience and move on. Some people seem incapable of accepting the verdict.
Found not guilty by other MPs?
Well that's the system. Maybe it shouldn't be, but it is.
Indeed. Perhaps those who refuse to accept the verdict would prefer some sort of witch-dipping contraption to be imposed retroactively?
Does anyone know if we are getting an indyref poll? There has been an odd hiatus since CurrencyGaffe.
If I were a Nat I'd suspect a conspiracy by unionist pollsters; but then again, if I were a Nat I'd suspect a unionist conspiracy eight times an hour, anyway.
Nonetheless, a poll would be nice.
I believe there is one but the numbers are not out yet
"I can't understand why David Cameron hasn't made much more use of Eric Pickles and why he hasn't promoted more bluff northerners"
I expect it is because such people didn't go the right schools and don't get invited to the right dinner parties (Samantha probably writes NOSD against their names on prospective invitation lists).
Then Rory Stewart fits the bill perfectly. He's an ex-Etonian so he fits in well with Dave's crowd, yet he hails from Scotland (although born in Hong Kong), and represents a northern English constituency. He's been a best-selling author, a tutor of royalty, and an ex-governor of an Iraqi province.
He's an epic long-distance walker. A bit like me, although he's far less scruffy.
His record is far more impressive than most ministers, yet alone MPs.
On the downside, I'm not sure he'd take fools gladly. If I was to be cruel, I'd say that perhaps he wouldn't fit into this cabinet for that reason ...
Exactly, Mr. J., Rory Stewart has done things in his life and doesn't suffer fools, so of course Samantha is going to mark him as "Not our sort, Dear". Had he been a SpAd, turned MP with no life experience I expect Cameron would have had him in the Cabinet by now.
That too is rather depressingly accurate. Rory Stewart is the most thoughtful and intelligent man in Parliament at the moment. A properly-functioning democracy would be making use of his talents.
What, another fecking Old Etonian? No ta.
What parliament needs is people who REALLY understand what life is like in Harlesden, not the Hindu Kush.
Oh come on. There's only so much risk people can expose themselves to.
"I can't understand why David Cameron hasn't made much more use of Eric Pickles and why he hasn't promoted more bluff northerners"
I expect it is because such people didn't go the right schools and don't get invited to the right dinner parties (Samantha probably writes NOSD against their names on prospective invitation lists).
Then Rory Stewart fits the bill perfectly. He's an ex-Etonian so he fits in well with Dave's crowd, yet he hails from Scotland (although born in Hong Kong), and represents a northern English constituency. He's been a best-selling author, a tutor of royalty, and an ex-governor of an Iraqi province.
He's an epic long-distance walker. A bit like me, although he's far less scruffy.
His record is far more impressive than most ministers, yet alone MPs.
On the downside, I'm not sure he'd take fools gladly. If I was to be cruel, I'd say that perhaps he wouldn't fit into this cabinet for that reason ...
Exactly, Mr. J., Rory Stewart has done things in his life and doesn't suffer fools, so of course Samantha is going to mark him as "Not our sort, Dear". Had he been a SpAd, turned MP with no life experience I expect Cameron would have had him in the Cabinet by now.
That too is rather depressingly accurate. Rory Stewart is the most thoughtful and intelligent man in Parliament at the moment. A properly-functioning democracy would be making use of his talents.
What, another fecking Old Etonian? No ta.
What parliament needs is people who REALLY understand what life is like in Harlesden, not the Hindu Kush.
I thought mass immigration meant Harlesden was indistinguishable from the Hindu Kush...
What parliament needs is people who REALLY understand what life is like in Harlesden, not the Hindu kush Indeed. The contrast couldn't be greater. One is a vast empty wasteland riven with tribalism, superstition and a long history of bloody violence. And the other is the Hindu Kush.
@TSE - surely wine with your dinner is viable? The rule seems unduly harsh. That all said, I once got taken out for dinner by an institution who had a similar draconian ban. Their favourite gastropub was one that carried a brand of beer called "Tea".
It was Mr FireStopper who had the wine problem.
I've always had employers with generous approaches to expenses.
I once even managed to claim for a meal and the heavenly money you give to the lapdancers in Stringfellows.
I had to entertain a client, honestly, it was the only place in Soho we could eat that night and didn't have to queue for.
I'd definitely have got the sack with a lap dancing receipt stapled to my expense form!
I'm not even allowed to entertain clients at my very sedate club - because they don#'t allow women in it is apparently a sexist institution which is seeking to impose the patriarchy on the good people of America. Or something.
On the subject of troughers we're still waiting to hear from Salmoan.
Alex Salmond refuses to publish luxury hotel costs - Telegraph www.telegraph.co.uk › News › Politics
25 Jan 2014 - Alex Salmond refuses to publish luxury hotel costs ... months of delay Mr Salmond's civil servants promised to provide an answer by January 10 ....
But it still trailed in fourth behind the missing plane, air pollution and Ukraine.
Coming behind those three in still quite impressive. Job done for Farage and Clegg but will the next Euro poll reflect changes ??
The debates were a total disaster for Clegg. Especially the second. I do not for a moment buy this LD spin that "even a loss is good publicity, we're only aiming for the europhile vote".
Clegg was dreadful - snooty, clumsy, unfunny, supercilious - as even europhiles and LD voters will have noted.
Strategically not the point.
Of course the yellow peril would have preferred to win the debates but the priority was to add a few points to their Euro polling from those of the one third that were pro EU disposed.
They need to edge to 12% to retain most of the Euro seats.
- What, exactly, was unethical? The fact that her parents had long lived with her to help look after the family?
The fact that she abused the system by borrowing more money against the house, knowing she could claim the extra interest from the taxpayer. That action wasn't needed for her to live in London - it was purely a money making scheme.
- What's it got to do with Cameron? It was a committee of backbenchers, chaired by a Labour MP, and with three lay members, which (unanimously) found that she had not acted improperly.
The fact that he refuses to move the woman from office, after her unethical original behaviour, her interference with the investigation, and her lack of co-operation with the inquiry.
But it still trailed in fourth behind the missing plane, air pollution and Ukraine.
Coming behind those three in still quite impressive. Job done for Farage and Clegg but will the next Euro poll reflect changes ??
The debates were a total disaster for Clegg. Especially the second. I do not for a moment buy this LD spin that "even a loss is good publicity, we're only aiming for the europhile vote".
Clegg was dreadful - snooty, clumsy, unfunny, supercilious - as even europhiles and LD voters will have noted.
Yougov found that its panel shifted from a 6% margin in favour of staying in the EU to a 3% margin in favour of leaving, as a result of the debate.
On the subject of troughers we're still waiting to hear from Salmoan.
Alex Salmond refuses to publish luxury hotel costs - Telegraph www.telegraph.co.uk › News › Politics
25 Jan 2014 - Alex Salmond refuses to publish luxury hotel costs ... months of delay Mr Salmond's civil servants promised to provide an answer by January 10 ....
The whole trip for all the government delegation was less than her troughing.
"I can't understand why David Cameron hasn't made much more use of Eric Pickles and why he hasn't promoted more bluff northerners"
I expect it is because such people didn't go the right schools and don't get invited to the right dinner parties (Samantha probably writes NOSD against their names on prospective invitation lists).
Then Rory Stewart fits the bill perfectly. He's an ex-Etonian so he fits in well with Dave's crowd, yet he hails from Scotland (although born in Hong Kong), and represents a northern English constituency. He's been a best-selling author, a tutor of royalty, and an ex-governor of an Iraqi province.
He's an epic long-distance walker. A bit like me, although he's far less scruffy.
His record is far more impressive than most ministers, yet alone MPs.
On the downside, I'm not sure he'd take fools gladly. If I was to be cruel, I'd say that perhaps he wouldn't fit into this cabinet for that reason ...
Exactly, Mr. J., Rory Stewart has done things in his life and doesn't suffer fools, so of course Samantha is going to mark him as "Not our sort, Dear". Had he been a SpAd, turned MP with no life experience I expect Cameron would have had him in the Cabinet by now.
That too is rather depressingly accurate. Rory Stewart is the most thoughtful and intelligent man in Parliament at the moment. A properly-functioning democracy would be making use of his talents.
What, another fecking Old Etonian? No ta.
What parliament needs is people who REALLY understand what life is like in Harlesden, not the Hindu Kush.
I thought mass immigration meant Harlesden was indistinguishable from the Hindu Kush...
You don't get to these places much do you? Harlesden is mainly black, not Asian. Hence the gang problem.
"It's also worth noting that Cornwall is stuffed with pensioners who will be pleased by the Osborne reforms"
These are Steve Webb's reforms, the Lib Dem Pension Minister
The reforms that are popular are the relaxation of the requirement to annuitise. This was a Tory manifesto pledge and is a HMT rather than DWP policy area. I dont see how Webb can be given the credit for it. Mind you I dont know why pensioners would like it, too late for them.
Surely not? Only too late for pensioners who have already taken an annuity. You don't *have* to take one until 75 - do you know what percentage go for an annuity immediately on retirement?
I see Eddie Izzard could not sell his tickets for Bitter Together, hundreds still up for grabs.
That may not, in all fairness, be completely related to his IndyRef views. I wouldn't want to endure Eddie Izzard on any platform expressing any opinion under any circumstances and I doubt I'm alone in that. Horrible unpleasant odious individual.
'The whole trip for all the government delegation was less than her troughing.'
Are you serious?
'The cost of sending a delegation led by First Minister Alex Salmond to the Ryder Cup golf tournament in America was almost £470,000, the Scottish government has said.'
- What, exactly, was unethical? The fact that her parents had long lived with her to help look after the family?
The fact that she abused the system by borrowing more money against the house, knowing she could claim the extra interest from the taxpayer. That action wasn't needed for her to live in London - it was purely a money making scheme.
- What's it got to do with Cameron? It was a committee of backbenchers, chaired by a Labour MP, and with three lay members, which (unanimously) found that she had not acted improperly.
The fact that he refuses to move the woman from office, after her unethical original behaviour, her interference with the investigation, and her lack of co-operation with the inquiry.
- And in what world is Maria Miller one of Cameron's 'mates'?
The one where his Director of Comms 'allegedly' threatened journalists with greater regulation if they pushed the issue?
Sigh. You are stubbornly refusing to do anything other than assume, purely out of prejudice, that she must be guilty. I hope to God you never serve on a jury - in fact I'm beginning to doubt the whole jury system, given the fact that you are hardly alone in your dogged refusal to consider evidence.
FWIW, what you describe as "The fact that she abused the system by borrowing more money against the house, knowing she could claim the extra interest from the taxpayer" was considered in detail by the Committee, who concluded (para 56):
Even though the figures available are incomplete, we are satisfied that there is sufficient independent evidence to support Mrs Miller’s assertion that up until the year 2008–09 she did not claim for the interest on any increases to her mortgage after her election
They further accepted her submission that the only overclaim was subsequent to 2009 and was an inadvertent one because she failed to adjust properly for the fall in interest rates (that's the £5,800 she has had to pay back). There was no 'fact' remotely similar to what you state.
As for your last point - just ridiculous. If you are going to define 'Cameron's mates' as any Conservative MP, including a comprehensive-school educated female LSE graduate, then that says more about your anti-Cameron prejudice than anything else.
Comments
Given the numbers after the Farage/Clegg second debate, it's not inconceivable the lib dems could leak a few to UKIP.
[I forgot about Hague in my post about visible northerners - although Eric is visible from a lot further away than William]
The only seat I am sure the Libs will hold in Devon and Cornwall is North Devon.
I expect it is because such people didn't go the right schools and don't get invited to the right dinner parties (Samantha probably writes NOSD against their names on prospective invitation lists).
Southampton to defeat City @ 9/1 (Saturday 12.45pm kick off)
Stoke to defeat Chelsea @ 14/1
Everton to defeat Arsenal @ 6/4
West Ham to defeat Liverpool @ 8/1 - As a Liverpool fan, I can see it now, our title charge dashed by old boys Downing and Carroll.
What happens when a leaflet without a barchart comes through a letterbox?
See ....
http://www.markpack.org.uk/48953/what-happens-when-a-leaflet-without-a-barchart-comes-through-a-letterbox/
What a shame Plato no longer contributes. Come back Plato.
BBC says Sir Bruce Forsyth is stepping down as presenter of BBC One series Strictly Come Dancing after a decade fronting the show
That could make a number of Southern England constituencies very interesting...
http://order-order.com/2014/04/04/ukip-attacking-scared-ed-u-turn/
"It's also worth noting that Cornwall is stuffed with pensioners who will be pleased by the Osborne reforms"
These are Steve Webb's reforms, the Lib Dem Pension Minister
Would a non-Tory minister not have faced far more pressure than Maria Miller has? Is the right wing press going soft? Trying to prevent the investigation and then needing to apologise hardly looks great.
Will there be a market on the successor?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26883278
How much time does she spend there anyway?
"Play Your Iraqi Cards Right"
You are NOT entitled to a pension unless you both (a) are no longer an MP and (b) clearly state that you have no intention of ever standing again. Should you change your mind and be re-elected, your pension will be suspended.
You are however entitled to a pension if you are doing some other job (which is the same as anywhere else, I think?. The reason I'm wryly familiar with these regulations is that I have a financial interest in not being elected, since in that case I will indeed get both pension and non-Parliamentary salary from my current non-political job. I'm sure you wish me the more financially beneficial outcome :-).
I suspect they'll use Claudia Winkleman as they have done in the past.
Nah the generation game shows were just genius. The way he let the guests be the stars was amazing. In a way, it was the start of reality TV as we know it.
What's Cameron's problem? Presumably he'd want to replace her with a woman to avoid the chauvinism claims. Doesn't he trust any? Wouldn't Soubry be an obvious choice given her media experience? She likes taking on Farage as well.
Do we all agree that two real benefits of a coalition in the House of Commons have been;
a) a fixed five year term and
b) Ministers are shuffled less frequently?
Is this a good enough reason to vote Lib Dem incumbents back in at the next election?
He's an epic long-distance walker. A bit like me, although he's far less scruffy.
His record is far more impressive than most ministers, yet alone MPs.
On the downside, I'm not sure he'd take fools gladly. If I was to be cruel, I'd say that perhaps he wouldn't fit into this cabinet for that reason ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart
We should simply have a large, comfortable, building (or several buildings) with 2 bedroom apartments in, which MPs get a change to use. (Maybe there should be some three or four bedroom flats if an MP wants to pay something on top themselves). Nothing fancy, the equivalent of a 4* hotel, not the Ritz. You could then abolish all housing allowances and the like altogether.
It's like a policeman accused of assault being investigated by his fellow officers.
And even if it was technically in the rules, its still clearly unethical, but once again Cameron protects his mates.
'Men united are invincible' Which actually sounds like 'Man United are invincible'. Cue sniggering. But they probably were back then.
http://www.freakingnews.com/Rubik-s-Grenade-Pictures-42837.asp
The big argument in favour of five years was long term planning — but look at HS2: they still haven't voted on it yet.
Also — the boundaries at the next election will be 15 years out of date, the worst ever. That's something which should have been sorted out during a five year term IMO.
"Did today Ed Miliband make the greatest strategic and tactical mistake since Emperor Palpatine allowed the Rebel Alliance to know the location of the second Death Star?
Surely it was wiser for him to let Dave to take the rap for not letting Farage into the debates?"
On the other side of the coin, my Mp Dr Huppert has never missed an oppo to slate the Con part of the coalition. I won't be lending him my vote - even if it means the Labour candidate wins - Huppert has done nothing to woo me.
- What, exactly, was unethical? The fact that her parents had long lived with her to help look after the family?
- What's it got to do with Cameron? It was a committee of backbenchers, chaired by a Labour MP, and with three lay members, which (unanimously) found that she had not acted improperly.
- And if you think they are wrong, please explain the flaw in their reasoning
- And in what world is Maria Miller one of Cameron's 'mates'?
In the past (i.e. yesterday) I've defended Microsoft's software engineering skills against all-comers. Needless to say the Jessop Jinx has struck:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-26879185
Oh dear. Oh deary deary dear. The sad thing is it's easy to imagine how this happened, and ways to protect against it.
But I agree. A poll would be nice!!
Although I fundamentally disagreed with her vision of an independent Scotland, she was without doubt a titan of Scottish politics.
In a political age largely dominated by drab grey men Margo MacDonald was a vibrant, colourful and fiercely independent woman much and loyally loved by a wide range of the people.
Scottish public life is considerably diminished with her passing.
RIP.
Too radical PB?
I'm not complaining - nobody forced me to stand again. But there's too much ill-informed stuff about MPs put forward as fact.
I think Barcodes have only scored one goal in their last 4 matches.
It could well be a case of the resistible force meets the moveable object at St James Park tomorrow.
The way I can see Newcastle winning tomorrow is, is if Man U rest players tomorrow for the second leg against the Bavarians of Munchen.
Edit: Don't diss Palace, even Chelsea lost to them without scoring, a result that made me made soooooooooooooo happy.
http://www.politics.hu/
An old friend of mine yesterday threatened to emigrate if Viktor Orbán won again.
But in his day I might have been prevailed upon .... might I force myself .... against all historical precedent .... to turn the pencil in the direction of ....
Jo Grimond.
There I said it ....
Lies down as a fit of the vapours comes on ....
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BkYs7AmCUAAlWz3.jpg
But it still trailed in fourth behind the missing plane, air pollution and Ukraine.
So, I blame the MPs rather than the press here. The Telegraph certainly seem to be on her case (which of course might have something to do with the threats apparently issued from her office).
Hopefully, if she's still around in 2015, the voters of Basingstoke will deliver an unambiguous people's verdict on her troughing. But the precedent of 2010 is not that encouraging when you have a trougher in a safe seat. Hazel Blears comes to mind as one of the egregiously unpunished from last time around.
Actually I've always been rather tempted by rolling annual elections with (say) a fifth of the HoC up for re-election in may on a rolling basis. Long term planning is possible as you eliminate the very politicised and therefore less productive first and last year we get from the current situation.
http://tinyurl.com/oy3jlny
Indeed. The contrast couldn't be greater. One is a vast empty wasteland riven with tribalism, superstition and a long history of bloody violence. And the other is the Hindu Kush.
'Just a trougher filling her boots, no excuse'
On the subject of troughers we're still waiting to hear from Salmoan.
Alex Salmond refuses to publish luxury hotel costs - Telegraph
www.telegraph.co.uk › News › Politics
25 Jan 2014 - Alex Salmond refuses to publish luxury hotel costs ... months of delay Mr Salmond's civil servants promised to provide an answer by January 10 ....
Of course the yellow peril would have preferred to win the debates but the priority was to add a few points to their Euro polling from those of the one third that were pro EU disposed.
They need to edge to 12% to retain most of the Euro seats.
I wouldn't want to endure Eddie Izzard on any platform expressing any opinion under any circumstances and I doubt I'm alone in that. Horrible unpleasant odious individual.
'The whole trip for all the government delegation was less than her troughing.'
Are you serious?
'The cost of sending a delegation led by First Minister Alex Salmond to the Ryder Cup golf tournament in America was almost £470,000, the Scottish government has said.'
FWIW, what you describe as "The fact that she abused the system by borrowing more money against the house, knowing she could claim the extra interest from the taxpayer" was considered in detail by the Committee, who concluded (para 56):
Even though the figures available are incomplete, we are satisfied that there is sufficient independent evidence to support Mrs Miller’s assertion that up until the year 2008–09 she did not claim for the interest on any increases to her mortgage after her election
They further accepted her submission that the only overclaim was subsequent to 2009 and was an inadvertent one because she failed to adjust properly for the fall in interest rates (that's the £5,800 she has had to pay back). There was no 'fact' remotely similar to what you state.
As for your last point - just ridiculous. If you are going to define 'Cameron's mates' as any Conservative MP, including a comprehensive-school educated female LSE graduate, then that says more about your anti-Cameron prejudice than anything else.