I noticed this morning that 'The New European' appears to have rebranded itself as 'The New World'. Its cover story is a picture of Noel and Liam Gallagher, alongside a picture of SKS, with the slogan 'they did - can he?' Presumably they are asking whether he can 'come back' in general, rather than specifically sell out Heaton Park for five days in a row.
Quite a lot to unpick there from the house journal of the Centrist Dad.
Aren't they loss-making? I wonder if it's a Hail Mary attempt at survival?
The economy shrank in May (0.1%) after businesses brought forward purchases earlier in the year, the ONS said, in an attempt to get ahead of Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught.
I do enjoy watching the government repeatedly alternating between "fastest growth in the G7" and "these are disappointing figures". You would think that they would have learnt by now to shut up, but they are perhaps the most politically inept group of politicians to ever serve.
There is a lot I agree with @Garethofthevale and to be fair I would consider the Lib Dems but for their stance on the EU which I do not want to rejoin.
I did query their policies a few days ago and received a response that they had a policy of a 6% digital tax and taxing oil companies
Given the first would cause fury from Trump, and the second is already heavily taxed, then I do not know where they would find the money especially with their desire to deal with social care
I also do not agree with their support for WASPI women
I remain one of the dwindling band of conservative supporters but here in Wales at the Senedd election next year and the GE I am likely to vote Plaid to oust labour
The digital tax would cause fury from Trump. It is also the right thing to do. Taxation should follow economic substance.
But let’s not call it a digital service tax. Let’s make it a withholding tax or something or a transnational minimum tax incentivisatiom scheme of something suitably opaque
I believe we have a tax withholding treaty with America to prevent double income taxation, as per the W8-BEN form. Calling it a withholding tax would, perhaps, be deeply unwise.
I’m not worried about the US double tax treaty. I’m worried about it being “taxed” in Ireland and Luxembourg
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Even the Tories could gain Labour and LD tactical votes in seats like Brentwood and Ongar where Reform were second last year.
Otherwise if Kemi is removed in the next year or so Stride might be the best bet, a competent ex businessman who can try and at least hold the fiscally conservative voters who voted for Rishi last year, a few of whom who have drifted over to Reform.
While also winning back a few former Tory voters who went Labour or LD last year and don't see Kemi as heavyweight enough but too obsessed with her war on woke
Thanks for the article on the LDs. IMO for now they will continue to be the substitute for Labour as the party opposing the Tories in up to 100 seats, and won't get further.
Their dilemma is real. If they are to expand - say into being the challenger in 300 seats and not 100, it has to be clear who is their adversary. Currently their adversary is the Tories, which rationally means that to expand they need to seek more seats where they can be the adversary of the Tories.
I don't think this can happen. They can't displace Labour. So can they displace the Tories as opponent of Labour? It doesn't look like it.
Their best approach therefore is to slightly and incrementally build on the current status, as the party who can help Labour to a second term, who are obviously not Tories, but hold some common ground with Labour.
Let's suppose that the Reform vote holds, and they go into the next general election on 30%. Could the Lib Dems sell themselves as best placed to stop Reform? Labour can't, the Tories can't, and the Greens are too insignificant in electoral terms. If Reform are the clear adversary, then it's all to play for.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
As I was saying, about LD supporters probably not wanting too much change, thank you very much
It's a valid point, of course, there is much that is good with the country. But we have some fundamental issues, particularly around expenditure and tax receipts that need addressing, along with investing sensibly for longer term gain.
Yes, and LDs have always been better on those policies. Good stewardship of finances is a core LD position.
I noticed this morning that 'The New European' appears to have rebranded itself as 'The New World'. Its cover story is a picture of Noel and Liam Gallagher, alongside a picture of SKS, with the slogan 'they did - can he?' Presumably they are asking whether he can 'come back' in general, rather than specifically sell out Heaton Park for five days in a row.
Quite a lot to unpick there from the house journal of the Centrist Dad.
Should I be embarrassed to be a Centrist Dad who has never picked up a copy (is it in print, even?) not been to the website - except, probably, if I've followed links to stories from here?
I'd be personally very impressed if Starms can split in two, have two semi-successful solo careers for his two halves and then reunite himself to public adulation.
When I last looked at the numbers, more than 90% of council byelections this year were won either by Reform or the LibDems.
This is quite something, no? We tend to be knowingly diverted by council by-elections - we enjoy them, knowing that only nerds like us pay any attention and that they're not really things to read too much into. But a failure of LabCon on this scale needs remarking on. This feels increasingly like a proper realignment.
I'm really not sure how to feel about this. Whatever my reservations were about my place in the LabCon system, I feel like I'm going to be considerably more homeless in a RefLD model. I suspect this is true of quite a lot of people.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
They arent fighting Reform in their existing seats, they are fighting the Tories and are already carrying significant numbers of tactical votes from the GTTO campaign in 2024. Don't get me wrong, I think they will retain a big portion of their gains but I do not see 2024 Vote efficiency happening for them again and they will lose some of them (not ruling out a few pick ups too)
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Whoops. Four more years of this, I'm not sure the nation can take it.
I note that the ONS have revised their growth figures for March though, doubling their previous estimate. Supports your long-held view that they are too pessimistic.
Typical government statisticians, talking down the Conservative Labour government .
From what I saw of the ONS when I worked in an adjacent government office (shared canteen) I think if I worked there I'd have a constantly pessimistic outlook too.
Give them a new office, pay rise and stop talking down the Civil Service and see the ONS growth estimates sky-rocket
Thanks for the article on the LDs. IMO for now they will continue to be the substitute for Labour as the party opposing the Tories in up to 100 seats, and won't get further.
Their dilemma is real. If they are to expand - say into being the challenger in 300 seats and not 100, it has to be clear who is their adversary. Currently their adversary is the Tories, which rationally means that to expand they need to seek more seats where they can be the adversary of the Tories.
I don't think this can happen. They can't displace Labour. So can they displace the Tories as opponent of Labour? It doesn't look like it.
Their best approach therefore is to slightly and incrementally build on the current status, as the party who can help Labour to a second term, who are obviously not Tories, but hold some common ground with Labour.
Let's suppose that the Reform vote holds, and they go into the next general election on 30%. Could the Lib Dems sell themselves as best placed to stop Reform? Labour can't, the Tories can't, and the Greens are too insignificant in electoral terms. If Reform are the clear adversary, then it's all to play for.
No, as most seats in the UK on current polls would be Labour v Reform as the top 2.
Where the LDs are in the top 2 it is mostly in posh seats in the South against the Tories, not a single LD held seat had Reform second at the general election and not a single Reform seat had the LDs second.
Indeed in Labour held marginal seats the LD vote would likely be squeezed by Labour if anything to try and keep Reform out
As currently in a position to make first hand observations on the NHS further observations
recap
ambulance A+ A&E A+
Ward C-
Now the new stuff
Community health have been in contact, first of all apparently they have had problems contacting me because the hospital has no record of me ever being admitted! How the hell does that happen
On top of that they seem intent on supplying me on a home help that I do not need in the least the point I ended up telling them if they sent one round they will be told where to go. They also should should be applying for PIP which I don't need as I am returning to full time work and just as capable as before the incident. Not surprised therefore that numbers on PIP are rising if they are pushing folk like me towards it.
Also I had to ring the ward yesterday to supply my gp name (I wasn't registered anywhere when admitted but did after I discharged myself). The ward nurse when I rang seemed confused by ringing as according to her I still on the ward. Does not inspire confidence in their record keeping frankly
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
You know when you go to the garden centre and they have a big bus trip of OAPs in, such that people in their 40/50s are the youngsters knocking about the place.
"I would argue that in terms of governing, the Con/LD Coalition was a huge success and delivered on its objectives."
The problems with NHS, Justice system and universities, the first 2 being due to backlogs initially created by austerity and the 3rd to the tuition fee system, all stem from the Coalition govt. That's 3 very big problems just for example, I'm far more hazy on any successes, bar some social liberalisation in legislation but that would have happened anyway, despite the desperate reactionary backlashes from the right wing media, over time the UK is becoming more socially liberal.
Otherwise a good analysis, I'm cheered by the conclusion that the Lib Dems have a natural ceiling to their current nimby, well-off middle class appeal and that they could lose support to the Greens.
When I last looked at the numbers, more than 90% of council byelections this year were won either by Reform or the LibDems.
This is quite something, no? We tend to be knowingly diverted by council by-elections - we enjoy them, knowing that only nerds like us pay any attention and that they're not really things to read too much into. But a failure of LabCon on this scale needs remarking on. This feels increasingly like a proper realignment.
I'm really not sure how to feel about this. Whatever my reservations were about my place in the LabCon system, I feel like I'm going to be considerably more homeless in a RefLD model. I suspect this is true of quite a lot of people.
Under those circumstances LDRef will effectively be LabCon with the serial numbers filled off.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
Genuine question. What radical shifts would you like to see the Lib Dems propose?
A new constitutional settlement. Based on abolition of the Lords in its current form, introduction of PR and a stronger role for regional Government.
Doesn’t fix the problems voters care about.
They want to have a job that pays them enough to own a home, have a family, get to eat out occasionally and may be go on holiday once a year. Most people are pretty modest in their ambitions.
They have one other modest, and entirely reasonable, ambition which is that everything the state runs or is responsible for is run excellently well. That + modest prosperity and opportunity for doing better is a very short and sensible list.
People have little interest in what structural changes are needed to achieve it, just as people don't know how a smart phone works. In that sense people are not radical or thirsting for change.
Who could have predicted that the Chancellor dramatically increasing taxes in April on employment could cause a recession with declines in April and May?
Apart from anyone who understands anything about Economics that is.
Do you know anyone on here who understands anything about Economics? Maybe Robert, but I can't think of anyone else.
I thought the whole point of economics was that no one really understand economics - 'the dismal science' etc.
Having said that, @OnlyLivingBoy might claim some expertise, earning his living as an economist, I think?
When I last looked at the numbers, more than 90% of council byelections this year were won either by Reform or the LibDems.
This is quite something, no? We tend to be knowingly diverted by council by-elections - we enjoy them, knowing that only nerds like us pay any attention and that they're not really things to read too much into. But a failure of LabCon on this scale needs remarking on. This feels increasingly like a proper realignment.
I'm really not sure how to feel about this. Whatever my reservations were about my place in the LabCon system, I feel like I'm going to be considerably more homeless in a RefLD model. I suspect this is true of quite a lot of people.
Under those circumstances LDRef will effectively be LabCon with the serial numbers filled off.
Culture wars would dominate, the battle would be woke liberals v socially conservative nationalists, not economic conservatives v socialist or social democratic leftwingers like the 20th century
This iteration of the Lib Dem map looks a lot more coherent and stable than previous ones, which often tracked a mixture of hyperactive activists, by-election wins and opportunistic campaigns (like tuition fees). On top of that, it's quite a bit bigger, and still has some room to grow. It helps that the Conservatives appear to have given up on the "nice England" part of their former coalition.
The catch is that Nice England gets you a solid block, but nowhere near winning nationwide. In their glory days, the Conservatives had the shires and the suburbs. The Red Wall was only ever the jam on top, and probably more trouble than it was worth, coherence-wise. Labour got the cities, the suburbs and the wall. Reform appear to be uniting the shires and the red wall, which looks mad but seems to work for now.
What's the next type of place for the Lib Dems to attack?
Middle England Towns and Their Hinterlands.
The urban core is likely to stay Labour, or left of Labour. The rural shires are a Tory/Reform battleground. This leaves places that could be really "naice" if they were a bit more prosperous.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Middle class, voted for Brexit but not massively so, often has a high Asian and Jewish population who are well off and despise Reform and socialism
The home secretary has said the new "one in, one out" migrant scheme agreed with France on Thursday is "robust" enough to withstand potential legal challenges.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
You know when you go to the garden centre and they have a big bus trip of OAPs in, such that people in their 40/50s are the youngsters knocking about the place.
I know what you mean, but quite a lot of them will have wandered off to Reform.
"Secretly admiring Farage without quite having the nerve to vote for him" isn't a winning niche.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Middle class, voted for Brexit but not massively so, often has a high Asian and Jewish population who are well off and despise Reform and socialism
I think that proves Stuart's point tbh, and is even reflected in polling data. Outer London is becoming a Conservative redoubt.
When I last looked at the numbers, more than 90% of council byelections this year were won either by Reform or the LibDems.
This is quite something, no? We tend to be knowingly diverted by council by-elections - we enjoy them, knowing that only nerds like us pay any attention and that they're not really things to read too much into. But a failure of LabCon on this scale needs remarking on. This feels increasingly like a proper realignment.
I'm really not sure how to feel about this. Whatever my reservations were about my place in the LabCon system, I feel like I'm going to be considerably more homeless in a RefLD model. I suspect this is true of quite a lot of people.
A 'LibDem system' would involve PR. Which would be more likely to enable the existence of a party quite well tailored to your views.
Note that Farage also claims to support PR, though in his case I expect it's more a matter of past expediency that actual principle.
Whoops. Four more years of this, I'm not sure the nation can take it.
I note that the ONS have revised their growth figures for March though, doubling their previous estimate. Supports your long-held view that they are too pessimistic.
Typical government statisticians, talking down the Conservative Labour government .
It's all within MoE isn't it? Where the MoE is larger than the estimated changes. Reality is probably only viewable in hindsight in 5 years from the longterm trend.
The home secretary has said the new "one in, one out" migrant scheme agreed with France on Thursday is "robust" enough to withstand potential legal challenges.
Who could have predicted that the Chancellor dramatically increasing taxes in April on employment could cause a recession with declines in April and May?
Apart from anyone who understands anything about Economics that is.
Do you know anyone on here who understands anything about Economics? Maybe Robert, but I can't think of anyone else.
Well apart from it being my background from my BSc, MSc onwards, I somehow managed to spot that dramatically increasing NI was a terrible idea despite that.
Thanks for the article on the LDs. IMO for now they will continue to be the substitute for Labour as the party opposing the Tories in up to 100 seats, and won't get further.
Their dilemma is real. If they are to expand - say into being the challenger in 300 seats and not 100, it has to be clear who is their adversary. Currently their adversary is the Tories, which rationally means that to expand they need to seek more seats where they can be the adversary of the Tories.
I don't think this can happen. They can't displace Labour. So can they displace the Tories as opponent of Labour? It doesn't look like it.
Their best approach therefore is to slightly and incrementally build on the current status, as the party who can help Labour to a second term, who are obviously not Tories, but hold some common ground with Labour.
Let's suppose that the Reform vote holds, and they go into the next general election on 30%. Could the Lib Dems sell themselves as best placed to stop Reform? Labour can't, the Tories can't, and the Greens are too insignificant in electoral terms. If Reform are the clear adversary, then it's all to play for.
Interesting question. IMO outside the up to 100 seats where LDs are serious the answer is no. Because in every case in England (S and W are different) the obvious and only tactical questions for those thinking tactically are : (1) is a Tory vote against Reform any use - or are they just Reformlite and (2) if the answer is Yes, do I vote Tory or Labour to beat Reform.
(2) is quite hard. Of the 6 seats in Cumbria, including mine, (one is LD) 5 were Tory in 2019; 5 are Labour now; 5 are projected to be Reform in 2029. What is the correct anti-Reform vote?
Who could have predicted that the Chancellor dramatically increasing taxes in April on employment could cause a recession with declines in April and May?
Apart from anyone who understands anything about Economics that is.
Do you know anyone on here who understands anything about Economics? Maybe Robert, but I can't think of anyone else.
The home secretary has said the new "one in, one out" migrant scheme agreed with France on Thursday is "robust" enough to withstand potential legal challenges.
Liberalism is in crisis everywhere. Not just taking about the Lib Dems. There used to be a strong liberal element in the Conservative Party too.
Many of the big-hitters in the 'liberal' wing of the Conservative Party were against Boris. Hence he got rid of them.
IMV this is a significant causal factor in the party's current woes.
Agreed. The breadth and depth of the tent has been significantly narrowed making it much harder to put together a winning coalition.
This should, on topic, be a real opportunity for the Lib Dems to properly take the middle ground from the Tories once and for all but I am not sure that it is working out like that. There is a wing of the Lib Dems that is just a bit too left for former Tories and, of course, like all the main parties, there is a deep reluctance to face the reality we are living in.
As a socially liberal, fiscally hawkish ex Tory I feel pretty homeless right now.
Whoops. Four more years of this, I'm not sure the nation can take it.
I note that the ONS have revised their growth figures for March though, doubling their previous estimate. Supports your long-held view that they are too pessimistic.
Typical government statisticians, talking down the Conservative Labour government .
From what I saw of the ONS when I worked in an adjacent government office (shared canteen) I think if I worked there I'd have a constantly pessimistic outlook too.
The way at the end of the quarter they'd come and tell people they'd revised upwards the canteen prices and you had to pay the balance was always most irritating
Who could have predicted that the Chancellor dramatically increasing taxes in April on employment could cause a recession with declines in April and May?
Apart from anyone who understands anything about Economics that is.
Do you know anyone on here who understands anything about Economics? Maybe Robert, but I can't think of anyone else.
I thought the whole point of economics was that no one really understand economics - 'the dismal science' etc.
Having said that, @OnlyLivingBoy might claim some expertise, earning his living as an economist, I think?
It used to be said that the questions set in University economics exams were always the same - only the answers were changed.
When I last looked at the numbers, more than 90% of council byelections this year were won either by Reform or the LibDems.
This is quite something, no? We tend to be knowingly diverted by council by-elections - we enjoy them, knowing that only nerds like us pay any attention and that they're not really things to read too much into. But a failure of LabCon on this scale needs remarking on. This feels increasingly like a proper realignment.
I'm really not sure how to feel about this. Whatever my reservations were about my place in the LabCon system, I feel like I'm going to be considerably more homeless in a RefLD model. I suspect this is true of quite a lot of people.
A 'LibDem system' would involve PR. Which would be more likely to enable the existence of a party quite well tailored to your views.
Note that Farage also claims to support PR, though in his case I expect it's more a matter of past expediency that actual principle.
That's a fair point actually, and I think one which crossed my mind while I was considering the above, though clearly left it again by the time I clicked 'post comment'. That itself would be an even more seismic realignment - though it might change how I feel about it quite a lot.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Places with lots of retired folks, and places with more money than education, like Essex
Liberalism is in crisis everywhere. Not just taking about the Lib Dems. There used to be a strong liberal element in the Conservative Party too.
Many of the big-hitters in the 'liberal' wing of the Conservative Party were against Boris. Hence he got rid of them.
IMV this is a significant causal factor in the party's current woes.
Agreed. The breadth and depth of the tent has been significantly narrowed making it much harder to put together a winning coalition.
This should, on topic, be a real opportunity for the Lib Dems to properly take the middle ground from the Tories once and for all but I am not sure that it is working out like that. There is a wing of the Lib Dems that is just a bit too left for former Tories and, of course, like all the main parties, there is a deep reluctance to face the reality we are living in.
As a socially liberal, fiscally hawkish ex Tory I feel pretty homeless right now.
+1
You aren't, you voted Starmer Labour
You voted Plaid if we are playing semantics
Not at a general election, I voted for 2 Plaid candidates on a six candidate ballot paper as there were only 4 Tory candidates I had already voted for and no Labour or LD candidates and I always use every vote and one the Plaid candidates I had briefly met as he had bothered to canvass
The home secretary has said the new "one in, one out" migrant scheme agreed with France on Thursday is "robust" enough to withstand potential legal challenges.
I expect that from day 1 of the scheme the smugglers will provide the contact details of human right lawyers to all for immediate use if threatened with being sent back
Whoops. Four more years of this, I'm not sure the nation can take it.
I note that the ONS have revised their growth figures for March though, doubling their previous estimate. Supports your long-held view that they are too pessimistic.
Typical government statisticians, talking down the Conservative Labour government .
The ONS isn't fit for purpose. Another one that needs burning down and rebuilding from scratch. Preferably without Windows 95.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Indeed. There genuinely aren't many places where the sorts of voters who the Conservatives think they are . outnumber the sorts of voters who actually vote for them.
The Conservatives USP has always been about keeping Labour out. If someone else has come along who can do that better...
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Scottish border constituency. Which, given there are only three of them, I accept is somewhat limiting.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
I'm sorry if you think I'm stereotyping. My point is that in 2005 the LDs had a much broader range of seats including places like Leeds NW and Chesterfield where they have completely dropped off now. Whereas now the new seats are often demographically alike such as Wokingham and Tunbridge Wells. Nice England as someone said.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Indeed. There genuinely aren't many places where the sorts of voters who the Conservatives think they are . outnumber the sorts of voters who actually vote for them.
The Conservatives USP has always been about keeping Labour out. If someone else has come along who can do that better...
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Middle class, voted for Brexit but not massively so, often has a high Asian and Jewish population who are well off and despise Reform and socialism
I think that proves Stuart's point tbh, and is even reflected in polling data. Outer London is becoming a Conservative redoubt.
Only patches of outer London though, Chingford, Harrow, Hillingdon etc. Plus the wealthiest parts of West London, Chelsea, Kensington and Westminster are shifting Tory again as they remain the main alternative to Labour there not Reform.
Posher rural areas are also still just about Tory even if Reform are snapping at their heals
Whoops. Four more years of this, I'm not sure the nation can take it.
I note that the ONS have revised their growth figures for March though, doubling their previous estimate. Supports your long-held view that they are too pessimistic.
Typical government statisticians, talking down the Conservative Labour government .
The ONS isn't fit for purpose. Another one that needs burning down and rebuilding from scratch. Preferably without Windows 95.
I love the way they had a recent report into its failings. Did anybody get the sack, nope. Instead they decided the solution was they needed more management.
This iteration of the Lib Dem map looks a lot more coherent and stable than previous ones, which often tracked a mixture of hyperactive activists, by-election wins and opportunistic campaigns (like tuition fees). On top of that, it's quite a bit bigger, and still has some room to grow. It helps that the Conservatives appear to have given up on the "nice England" part of their former coalition.
The catch is that Nice England gets you a solid block, but nowhere near winning nationwide. In their glory days, the Conservatives had the shires and the suburbs. The Red Wall was only ever the jam on top, and probably more trouble than it was worth, coherence-wise. Labour got the cities, the suburbs and the wall. Reform appear to be uniting the shires and the red wall, which looks mad but seems to work for now.
What's the next type of place for the Lib Dems to attack?
In answer to your specific question, I would suggest University towns,
I think that’s trickier now that the Greens have moved in so successfully on the student and hippy middle class vote. My suggestion would be for the Lib Dems to try and target Labour in some of the wealthy suburbs of newly flourishing Northern cities like Manchester and Newcastle. Some of those are just as prosperous and full of professionals as any Home Counties seat. The difficulty is that they’ve got no activist base there but they’ve got time to work on that before the next election.
The posher parts of the cities ought to be back in contention - seats like Hornsey, Hampstead, Hallam, and in the west of Manchester, Cardiff, Leeds etc
In Hornsey they could run a strong Nimby anti-windfarm campaign
As currently in a position to make first hand observations on the NHS further observations
recap
ambulance A+ A&E A+
Ward C-
Now the new stuff
Community health have been in contact, first of all apparently they have had problems contacting me because the hospital has no record of me ever being admitted! How the hell does that happen
On top of that they seem intent on supplying me on a home help that I do not need in the least the point I ended up telling them if they sent one round they will be told where to go. They also should should be applying for PIP which I don't need as I am returning to full time work and just as capable as before the incident. Not surprised therefore that numbers on PIP are rising if they are pushing folk like me towards it.
Also I had to ring the ward yesterday to supply my gp name (I wasn't registered anywhere when admitted but did after I discharged myself). The ward nurse when I rang seemed confused by ringing as according to her I still on the ward. Does not inspire confidence in their record keeping frankly
If you self discharged, without going through the self discharge procedure (simply walking out for example) then the discharge documentation would not be done, and as that is the mechanism to inform community services, they would be unaware too.
I have a few days off, so have been visiting my elderly folks. I am not impressed with their GP practice. Fundamentally it isn't the system that is at fault so much as the unwillingness to take action and decisions. Fundamentally it is a lack of confidence and training.
I see that too in my hospital work where I am seen as the Wizard of Oz, with an endless stream of petitioners wanting me to sort out problems that they could sort out perfectly well themselves. Its a fear of making decisions and sticking by them.
Liberalism is in crisis everywhere. Not just taking about the Lib Dems. There used to be a strong liberal element in the Conservative Party too.
Many of the big-hitters in the 'liberal' wing of the Conservative Party were against Boris. Hence he got rid of them.
IMV this is a significant causal factor in the party's current woes.
Agreed. The breadth and depth of the tent has been significantly narrowed making it much harder to put together a winning coalition.
This should, on topic, be a real opportunity for the Lib Dems to properly take the middle ground from the Tories once and for all but I am not sure that it is working out like that. There is a wing of the Lib Dems that is just a bit too left for former Tories and, of course, like all the main parties, there is a deep reluctance to face the reality we are living in.
As a socially liberal, fiscally hawkish ex Tory I feel pretty homeless right now.
+1
You aren't, you voted Starmer Labour
You voted Plaid if we are playing semantics
Not at a general election, I voted for 2 Plaid candidates on a six candidate ballot paper as there were only 4 Tory candidates I had already voted for and no Labour or LD candidates and I always use every vote and one the Plaid candidates I had briefly met as he had bothered to canvass
Another point about the Lib Dems is that as a party they can't succeed on a national campaign. The Lib Dems win in hyper local battles where they dig in and win by focusing on local issues. Their national campaign can set the right mood music but it's not why they win. A great example is 2019 where the party leadership junked their ruthless targeting and ran hard on Swinson's anti Brexit message. Reform are the opposite, their voters couldn't give a stuff about their local candidate (unless they're completely crazy) and vote for them entirely based on their overall stance and because they like Farage. The Lib Dem strategy is solid but difficult to scale and Reform's is easy to scale but fragile.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
You know when you go to the garden centre and they have a big bus trip of OAPs in, such that people in their 40/50s are the youngsters knocking about the place.
I know what you mean, but quite a lot of them will have wandered off to Reform.
"Secretly admiring Farage without quite having the nerve to vote for him" isn't a winning niche.
Under FPTP a larger party with aspirations to build an election-winning coalition has to some extent to fight against its core image and reason for being. Labour has to insult unions and socialists. The Tories have to hide their callous bastard instincts.
The parties reach out to less ideological voters by cultivating a veneer of competence and by not being the other lot.
Smaller parties only survive by virtue of having a clear identity of why they exist and how they differ from the big parties. Only more ideological or engaged voters will choose to absent themself from the main political battle between the two big parties.
This is stable as long as the big parties are bigger than the small parties, but it means the system can rapidly flip to a different stable state should one of the big parties fall behind a small party. The Tories are floundering because they're a formerly big party being treated like a small one.
I think the Lib Dems missed out on a historic opportunity to regain big party status at GE2024. They're still fourth in the polls, and it looks like Reform will leapfrog them to become one of the big two parties in FPTP politics.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
I'm sorry if you think I'm stereotyping. My point is that in 2005 the LDs had a much broader range of seats including places like Leeds NW and Chesterfield where they have completely dropped off now. Whereas now the new seats are often demographically alike such as Wokingham and Tunbridge Wells. Nice England as someone said.
There was always a strong tradition of working class support in the Celtic fringe, where Labour never really took off, and in areas of non-conformist strength in some of the northern cities. An enduring feature of the coalition appears to be the loss of both as significant electoral legacies.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
I'm sorry if you think I'm stereotyping. My point is that in 2005 the LDs had a much broader range of seats including places like Leeds NW and Chesterfield where they have completely dropped off now. Whereas now the new seats are often demographically alike such as Wokingham and Tunbridge Wells. Nice England as someone said.
Ignore Foxy - one of the most partisan posters on this site. You're header is bang on the money even if the Lib Dems on here don't want to hear it.
Who could have predicted that the Chancellor dramatically increasing taxes in April on employment could cause a recession with declines in April and May?
Apart from anyone who understands anything about Economics that is.
Do you know anyone on here who understands anything about Economics? Maybe Robert, but I can't think of anyone else.
There are several. You haven't been paying attention
I discount anyone who believes the voodoo Laffer Curve works in a real world context. Only genuine economists need apply.
As currently in a position to make first hand observations on the NHS further observations
recap
ambulance A+ A&E A+
Ward C-
Now the new stuff
Community health have been in contact, first of all apparently they have had problems contacting me because the hospital has no record of me ever being admitted! How the hell does that happen
On top of that they seem intent on supplying me on a home help that I do not need in the least the point I ended up telling them if they sent one round they will be told where to go. They also should should be applying for PIP which I don't need as I am returning to full time work and just as capable as before the incident. Not surprised therefore that numbers on PIP are rising if they are pushing folk like me towards it.
Also I had to ring the ward yesterday to supply my gp name (I wasn't registered anywhere when admitted but did after I discharged myself). The ward nurse when I rang seemed confused by ringing as according to her I still on the ward. Does not inspire confidence in their record keeping frankly
If you self discharged, without going through the self discharge procedure (simply walking out for example) then the discharge documentation would not be done, and as that is the mechanism to inform community services, they would be unaware too.
I have a few days off, so have been visiting my elderly folks. I am not impressed with their GP practice. Fundamentally it isn't the system that is at fault so much as the unwillingness to take action and decisions. Fundamentally it is a lack of confidence and training.
I see that too in my hospital work where I am seen as the Wizard of Oz, with an endless stream of petitioners wanting me to sort out problems that they could sort out perfectly well themselves. Its a fear of making decisions and sticking by them.
No I didn't just walk out, I merely told the doctor I was not staying another night. I would stay for the mri and diagnosis. Then they prescribe what was needed and I would take the meds home.
I did not see any point staying in, physically I was fine and mentally. They only problem remaining was I had lost the ability to speak after the seizures. They did the paperwork. I was doing was taking up a bed and I could not sleep in there because of the perpetual noise.
After a good night sleep at home my speech and typing has started returning. Still issues but getting better day by day. Turned out from the MRI it wasn't a stroke anyway just a brain tumour so not any reason to stay in.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
You know when you go to the garden centre and they have a big bus trip of OAPs in, such that people in their 40/50s are the youngsters knocking about the place.
I know what you mean, but quite a lot of them will have wandered off to Reform.
"Secretly admiring Farage without quite having the nerve to vote for him" isn't a winning niche.
Under FPTP a larger party with aspirations to build an election-winning coalition has to some extent to fight against its core image and reason for being. Labour has to insult unions and socialists. The Tories have to hide their callous bastard instincts.
We are seeing the rise of Callous Bastards worldwide.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
Genuine question. What radical shifts would you like to see the Lib Dems propose?
At a basic level? A shift from the Treasury swamp towards actually addressing the structural failures in our economy.
Four biggies for me: 1. Price of energy - we pay absurdly high amounts for energy which is pegged to the import price of gas we largely don't import. This inflates the price of everything which is why we have such a deep cost of living crisis.
We need to copy Spain and decouple energy prices from gas. Further than that, we need to remap our thinking behind the energy grid - Miliband is sadly frit on this subject. We are paying to switch off wind turbines because the grid doesn't have the transmission capacity to send the power dahn sarf. Spend that money on capacity FFS it isn't difficult.
Cut wholesale energy prices by 20%+ and inflation crashes. The economy functions better and people are removed from crippling energy poverty. Combine that with a program of home insulation and micro solar generation on your roof and we can collapse energy prices for good. Which means industry can afford to be in the UK which brings investment and jobs and growth.
2. Price of housing. The market doesn't work. Developers build far too slowly and they are building executive-style rat trap homes that we already have a glut of. What we need is apartments and starter homes - ones not clad in PlebBurn3000 by RBKC. Planning applications take too long and once granted developers don't build unless they think they can make enough profit.
Empower Housing Associations to borrow and get fast tracked-planning like they are government, but build commercially - operational independence. Every unit built is Not For Sale. Ever. Let at social rents, which collapses the rentier class private landlord sector which floods the market with homes.
Of course to build homes we need a workforce. Make construction a national priority. Fund colleges to train brickies, sparkies, plumbers etc. Tax breaks on factories to make bricks. We can't avoid migrant labour if we don't have domestic replacements. Get on it.
3. A market economy again. The economy for so many people doesn't pay their bills no matter how hard they work. Points 1 and 2 address the cost of living, which means more disposable income. But we need productive labour. Companies have stopped investing in kit and in people, but were given fat tax breaks away. So if you want your discounted council tax and a discounted UC-supported work force, you need to invest in skills and training. Make Capitalism Great Again. Borrow, invest, make a Return on that investment. For industry, the state, regions and local government. Stop burning cash on administration and start investing.
4. Smash the Treasury idiocy. Apparently we can't afford police officers or criminal justice - as if crime is cost free. We can't afford teachers but can afford emergency supply cover and crisis management. Can't afford NHS medical capacity - doctors, nurses, beds - but can afford 400 levels of market-driven management tiers.
A local example. Aberdeenshire council - faced with an ever-widening funding hole thanks to the SNP taking £34m a year off them - are faced with a choice of unpalatable cuts. So have declared they will remove half the grit bins. Which apparently will save money. Will lead to a load more accidents and costs both on the NHS and on business as people fall over, but that cost isn't on this year's council budget so its therefore zero cost. Bullshit. Same with cutting the police and the courts and teachers and not building roads and railways and airports.
I could go on all day. Plus add in that the UK in its current form is largely unworkable, so go federal. etc
Aside from the Norwegians, today's ferry queue was a bunch of French motorcyclists, a couple of Finnish and a few Swedish vehicles, one Dane, one Dutch, an intrepid Spanish car, only me flying the flag for the UK, and a shedload of Germans in cars, campers, vans and motorbikes.
Off the ferry came something called a 'hotelbus', a double decker where the upper deck and some of the rear appeared to have been converted into compact accommodation for the travellers. Not seen one of those before..
Poor Mr Dog has a few hours confined in the car on the car deck, which he won't enjoy at all, especially with the numpties who don't turn their car alarms off. At least it is exceedingly calm today.
As ever an excellent thread - detailed, thoughtful, incisive and evidence-backed - which shows PB at its best.
I agree. I enjoyed the header and found myself nodding along with much of it. But I do have a quibble, a serious one that unless it's resolved undermines the whole piece for me. It's this: Where is the hard polling data that shows LD voters shop at Waitrose?
As currently in a position to make first hand observations on the NHS further observations
recap
ambulance A+ A&E A+
Ward C-
Now the new stuff
Community health have been in contact, first of all apparently they have had problems contacting me because the hospital has no record of me ever being admitted! How the hell does that happen
On top of that they seem intent on supplying me on a home help that I do not need in the least the point I ended up telling them if they sent one round they will be told where to go. They also should should be applying for PIP which I don't need as I am returning to full time work and just as capable as before the incident. Not surprised therefore that numbers on PIP are rising if they are pushing folk like me towards it.
Also I had to ring the ward yesterday to supply my gp name (I wasn't registered anywhere when admitted but did after I discharged myself). The ward nurse when I rang seemed confused by ringing as according to her I still on the ward. Does not inspire confidence in their record keeping frankly
If you self discharged, without going through the self discharge procedure (simply walking out for example) then the discharge documentation would not be done, and as that is the mechanism to inform community services, they would be unaware too.
I have a few days off, so have been visiting my elderly folks. I am not impressed with their GP practice. Fundamentally it isn't the system that is at fault so much as the unwillingness to take action and decisions. Fundamentally it is a lack of confidence and training.
I see that too in my hospital work where I am seen as the Wizard of Oz, with an endless stream of petitioners wanting me to sort out problems that they could sort out perfectly well themselves. Its a fear of making decisions and sticking by them.
No I didn't just walk out, I merely told the doctor I was not staying another night. I would stay for the mri and diagnosis. Then they prescribe what was needed and I would take the meds home.
I did not see any point staying in, physically I was fine and mentally. They only problem remaining was I had lost the ability to speak after the seizures. They did the paperwork. I was doing was taking up a bed and I could not sleep in there because of the perpetual noise.
After a good night sleep at home my speech and typing has started returning. Still issues but getting better day by day. Turned out from the MRI it wasn't a stroke anyway just a brain tumour so not any reason to stay in.
I self-discharged once, with the Dr's agreement.
It was the Royal Free, and I was OK and a Friday in the noughties - to do all the paperwork would have meant staying in until the Monday. So they accepted with my suggestion that I self-discharge (which would possibly have freed up the bed), and it was sign a form a bit later and go home, which was 10 minutes' walk.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Places with lots of retired folks, and places with more money than education, like Essex
My leafy suburb of Brum is pretty naturally Conservative. Too affluent to be Reform; too conservative (with a small c) to be Lib Dem or Labour.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
You know when you go to the garden centre and they have a big bus trip of OAPs in, such that people in their 40/50s are the youngsters knocking about the place.
I know what you mean, but quite a lot of them will have wandered off to Reform.
"Secretly admiring Farage without quite having the nerve to vote for him" isn't a winning niche.
Under FPTP a larger party with aspirations to build an election-winning coalition has to some extent to fight against its core image and reason for being. Labour has to insult unions and socialists. The Tories have to hide their callous bastard instincts.
We are seeing the rise of Callous Bastards worldwide.
The Tories, so bad they're losing in a rising Callous Bastard market.
This iteration of the Lib Dem map looks a lot more coherent and stable than previous ones, which often tracked a mixture of hyperactive activists, by-election wins and opportunistic campaigns (like tuition fees). On top of that, it's quite a bit bigger, and still has some room to grow. It helps that the Conservatives appear to have given up on the "nice England" part of their former coalition.
The catch is that Nice England gets you a solid block, but nowhere near winning nationwide. In their glory days, the Conservatives had the shires and the suburbs. The Red Wall was only ever the jam on top, and probably more trouble than it was worth, coherence-wise. Labour got the cities, the suburbs and the wall. Reform appear to be uniting the shires and the red wall, which looks mad but seems to work for now.
What's the next type of place for the Lib Dems to attack?
Middle England Towns and Their Hinterlands.
The urban core is likely to stay Labour, or left of Labour. The rural shires are a Tory/Reform battleground. This leaves places that could be really "naice" if they were a bit more prosperous.
The problem is that these towns often have more working class parts.
Let me give you an example in my area. Sandhurst is a nice town and the LDs won the council wards there at the last local elections. However, Sandhurst is in the Bracknell constituency whose largest part is Bracknell, which is a very working class town and a LD desert.
Last time the LDs got 10.9% in the constituency and came 4th:
The recent Yougov MRP showed Ref 28%, Con 25%, Lab 25%, LD 11%, Green 10%
Even if LDs send all their Wokingham activists over the border it's still going to be difficult to try and persuade people that they are the answer to stopping Reform when Con and Lab are much closer.
This is why national vote share matters so much. If they could get up to 15-20% nationally then that puts them into contention in a lot more seats.
Who could have predicted that the Chancellor dramatically increasing taxes in April on employment could cause a recession with declines in April and May?
Apart from anyone who understands anything about Economics that is.
Do you know anyone on here who understands anything about Economics? Maybe Robert, but I can't think of anyone else.
There are several. You haven't been paying attention
I discount anyone who believes the voodoo Laffer Curve works in a real world context. Only genuine economists need apply.
The Laffer curve certainly works in real life.
The problem is it's very hard to work out where you are on it until it's too late, and hysteresis exists, so you can't even find out where you are on it by experimentation, because the shape of the curve is changed by the experiment.
3. A market economy again. The economy for so many people doesn't pay their bills no matter how hard they work. Points 1 and 2 address the cost of living, which means more disposable income. But we need productive labour. Companies have stopped investing in kit and in people, but were given fat tax breaks away. So if you want your discounted council tax and a discounted UC-supported work force, you need to invest in skills and training. Make Capitalism Great Again. Borrow, invest, make a Return on that investment. For industry, the state, regions and local government. Stop burning cash on administration and start investing.
4. Smash the Treasury idiocy. Apparently we can't afford police officers or criminal justice - as if crime is cost free. We can't afford teachers but can afford emergency supply cover and crisis management. Can't afford NHS medical capacity - doctors, nurses, beds - but can afford 400 levels of market-driven management tiers.
A local example. Aberdeenshire council - faced with an ever-widening funding hole thanks to the SNP taking £34m a year off them - are faced with a choice of unpalatable cuts. So have declared they will remove half the grit bins. Which apparently will save money. Will lead to a load more accidents and costs both on the NHS and on business as people fall over, but that cost isn't on this year's council budget so its therefore zero cost. Bullshit. Same with cutting the police and the courts and teachers and not building roads and railways and airports.
I could go on all day. Plus add in that the UK in its current form is largely unworkable, so go federal. etc
There's much in that.
Shifting resources away from things where the consequences are someone else's problem is, of course, appealing to hard pressed councils (and others) trying to balance books. But often a terrible idea for the country.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Indeed. There genuinely aren't many places where the sorts of voters who the Conservatives think they are . outnumber the sorts of voters who actually vote for them.
The Conservatives USP has always been about keeping Labour out. If someone else has come along who can do that better...
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
You know when you go to the garden centre and they have a big bus trip of OAPs in, such that people in their 40/50s are the youngsters knocking about the place.
I know what you mean, but quite a lot of them will have wandered off to Reform.
"Secretly admiring Farage without quite having the nerve to vote for him" isn't a winning niche.
Under FPTP a larger party with aspirations to build an election-winning coalition has to some extent to fight against its core image and reason for being. Labour has to insult unions and socialists. The Tories have to hide their callous bastard instincts.
We are seeing the rise of Callous Bastards worldwide.
The Tories, so bad they're losing in a rising Callous Bastard market.
Because they lost their Callous Bastard edge.
They might regain it under Alan Jenrick B'Stard...
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
You know when you go to the garden centre and they have a big bus trip of OAPs in, such that people in their 40/50s are the youngsters knocking about the place.
I know what you mean, but quite a lot of them will have wandered off to Reform.
"Secretly admiring Farage without quite having the nerve to vote for him" isn't a winning niche.
Under FPTP a larger party with aspirations to build an election-winning coalition has to some extent to fight against its core image and reason for being. Labour has to insult unions and socialists. The Tories have to hide their callous bastard instincts.
We are seeing the rise of Callous Bastards worldwide.
Indeed so, but in Britain Reform - unsullied by decades of pretending not to be callous bastards - are doing a better job of appealing to those voters, and their position in the polls means that some of the advantages of big party status are beginning to accrue to them.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
I'm sorry if you think I'm stereotyping. My point is that in 2005 the LDs had a much broader range of seats including places like Leeds NW and Chesterfield where they have completely dropped off now. Whereas now the new seats are often demographically alike such as Wokingham and Tunbridge Wells. Nice England as someone said.
If you look at the figures in Yougov tables for example, with the LD voters on 16% nationally, this is strongest in Rest of South at 22%, but is 10% in both North and Wales, 15% in Scotland, but 6% in the Midlands. So there is significant LD support well outside your stereotype. The same goes when looking at breakdown by social class and age. Indeed the LD support by age is the most even of all national parties.
I interpret this to mean there's potential in a lot more places (10% or less of the vote was typical polling throughout most of the last parliament). Even in apparently barren areas like the Midlands we have quite a lot of support. The LDs are the second largest group on Leics County Council now, after Reform.
I think a lot of LD voters already vote tactically in national elections particularly in seats where the prospects are gloomy, and similarly in many LD held seats many of the voters would Identify as Labour, Green or even Cameron Conservatives, but voted LD tactically.
Davey's challenge is to get those inward Tactical Voters to identify as LD, and also to pick target seats in the remainder of the country. I think the Leics Tory seats are vulnerable to a LD/Reform squeeze for example, with LDs recruiting the Labour support in those seats. I am sure there's similar prospects elsewhere.
Good article, and analysis. Thanks for writing it.
Was in a meeting. I notice a spat between a few posters on the whys and wherefores of the LibDem vote.
I agree with BOTH sides. @Foxy is right in that we are doing a lot better than is made out. There is some political sneering about the party and our support which is still acting like it is 2015. This is nonsense.
But I also agree with the broad tone of @Garethofthevale 's piece that we have largely hit a ceiling and further growth will be tough.
My own platform is that we need to stay nice - as a counter to the callous bastards - but need real policies to transform people's lives. Support for carers is nice, but only scratches the surface.
Reform have demonstrated that there is a deep-rooted appetite for real change. The LabCon can't offer anything, but we could. If we grew a set.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Indeed. There genuinely aren't many places where the sorts of voters who the Conservatives think they are . outnumber the sorts of voters who actually vote for them.
The Conservatives USP has always been about keeping Labour out. If someone else has come along who can do that better...
Reform has four year to prove it can.
Or to crash and burn. I know where my money is.
Hmm, don't know.
But I might have cracked the case. Most Reform candidates will be former Tories ( MPs and Councillors). Reform finish on 400 seats the Tories on 50. On the first day of the Commons sitting, 95% of the former Tories cross the floor and retake the Tory whip. They all then recross the floor to the Government benches casting the Remaining Reformers, including PB's Leon to join Angela Rayner, the Greens and the Lib Dems on the opposition benches.
As ever an excellent thread - detailed, thoughtful, incisive and evidence-backed - which shows PB at its best.
I agree. I enjoyed the header and found myself nodding along with much of it. But I do have a quibble, a serious one that unless it's resolved undermines the whole piece for me. It's this: Where is the hard polling data that shows LD voters shop at Waitrose?
Not a single Scottish LD MSP or MP with a Waitrose in their constituency. Not a lot of either mind you.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Indeed. There genuinely aren't many places where the sorts of voters who the Conservatives think they are . outnumber the sorts of voters who actually vote for them.
The Conservatives USP has always been about keeping Labour out. If someone else has come along who can do that better...
Aside from the Norwegians, today's ferry queue was a bunch of French motorcyclists, a couple of Finnish and a few Swedish vehicles, one Dane, one Dutch, an intrepid Spanish car, only me flying the flag for the UK, and a shedload of Germans in cars, campers, vans and motorbikes.
Off the ferry came something called a 'hotelbus', a double decker where the upper deck and some of the rear appeared to have been converted into compact accommodation for the travellers. Not seen one of those before..
Poor Mr Dog has a few hours confined in the car on the car deck, which he won't enjoy at all, especially with the numpties who don't turn their car alarms off. At least it is exceedingly calm today.
Interesting and persuasive piece - thanks Gareth. As a sometimes restless Labour member (indeed chair of the CLP) I've not even thought about defecting to the LibDems, who are locally dominant, since they don't appear to have any significant national policies.
My only comment is probably to not underestimate Davey.
On Chesterfield, I'd still call that to go Lib Dem not Reform. It is very different and more prosperous than say Mansfield, which is 6-7 miles the other side of the M1. It also has a far more enlightened council as far as I can see. It will be interesting to see how the two come out in positioning after the Local Government changes.
As ever an excellent thread - detailed, thoughtful, incisive and evidence-backed - which shows PB at its best.
I agree. I enjoyed the header and found myself nodding along with much of it. But I do have a quibble, a serious one that unless it's resolved undermines the whole piece for me. It's this: Where is the hard polling data that shows LD voters shop at Waitrose?
Outdated and I'm not sure whether they're BPC members!
Thank you for the piece, @GarethoftheVale2 which wasn't easy reading for an LD supporter.
The truth is, the challenge the LDs face now is the one they have always faced, to build local success in previously fallow areas and over time turn that into parliamentary success.
The 1997 "gains" were largely in areas where the party had a proven track record of activity at local level and I suspect a similar correlation occurred in 2024. There were some new areas of parliamentary progress in seats which had resolutely remained Conservative in the past and in other areas the earlier progress had dissipated entirely and the party was once again irrelevant.
So much depends on having a dedicated core of hard working activists who put in the time and effort to build local bases, delivery and membership networks and a reputation for being there for the voters. When I was a Liberal and later LD activist it astonished me how much the Conservatives took their vote for granted and did little or nothing between elections - that has changed.
The other side of the challenge is to be heard beyond the seats already with an LD MP or where the party is challenging hard. Vast oceans of inactivity surround islands of activity - in London, you have the six LD seats but where are the seventh and eighth coming from?
Yes, we can concentrate on more "affluent" areas, as an example Wanstead has a Gail's and an M&S but is hardly fertile LD territory but it's not much different from parts of Woking.
However, "breaking out" from the heartlands into other areas either requires a fortuitous by-election or two or a distinctive policy selling point which can cut through but it's a crowded field and I don't know where that policy is currently.
Contrary to a few other views, I'm quite happy with Sir Ed and I think the 2024 intake is very strong with two or three real stars of the future (Josh Babarinde, Bobby Dean and Helen Maguire would be my picks so far).
The point about the LDs manifesto is spot on. It is tinkering around the edges. In some ways the two main parties have moved closer to one another - we can see this in that Labour arrive after a 14y absence and don't really change that much. This has corralled the LDs onto an increasingly narrow path, and they can't find any big ideas to distinguish themselves. I think this is true, but it's also absolutely crazy - so much of the state is completely broken - it shouldn't be too hard to come up with a wide ranging programme of measures to start to fix things. It'd be very painful, it'd be a treacherous path, but it'd be more radical and inspiring than anything else currently served up on the little chef menu of British politics.
Moreover working on quite how you rip things up and start again without just wrecking things would ensure and attractive political debate - young people might be attracted. Possible good MP material, rather than the beige workaday cloth of the current mob.
What the LDs need in short is; New Leader Better MPs Policies that will make a difference
Where they are now I think it's not so hard to imagine a competing party being set up.
Probably by not ripping things up. Radical change is needed; year zero isn't.
Plenty of time before the next GE to at least revisit the foundations.
I don't disagree that future growth in number of seats will be tough, indeed that's why consolidation of existing seats is so important. There are opportunities around for more, and no leader should play an entirely defensive campaign. You have to try to score a goal occasionally.
Reform have 30% with an appetite for change (though like Brexit no clear idea of what that change and it's consequences are, apart from being beastly to foreigners and their descendents), but that leaves 70% who don't want a great deal of change, just a return to a more orderly and kind country where public services function and the national finances are in order.
Was in a meeting. I notice a spat between a few posters on the whys and wherefores of the LibDem vote.
I agree with BOTH sides. @Foxy is right in that we are doing a lot better than is made out. There is some political sneering about the party and our support which is still acting like it is 2015. This is nonsense.
But I also agree with the broad tone of @Garethofthevale 's piece that we have largely hit a ceiling and further growth will be tough.
My own platform is that we need to stay nice - as a counter to the callous bastards - but need real policies to transform people's lives. Support for carers is nice, but only scratches the surface.
Reform have demonstrated that there is a deep-rooted appetite for real change. The LabCon can't offer anything, but we could. If we grew a set.
Who could have predicted that the Chancellor dramatically increasing taxes in April on employment could cause a recession with declines in April and May?
Apart from anyone who understands anything about Economics that is.
Do you know anyone on here who understands anything about Economics? Maybe Robert, but I can't think of anyone else.
There are several. You haven't been paying attention
I discount anyone who believes the voodoo Laffer Curve works in a real world context. Only genuine economists need apply.
Your obsession with the Laffer Curve is weird.
All Economics is subject to debate on how it works in a real world context. Any economist worth their salt would always place caveats onw what they're saying.
The Laffer Curve is abused, but the theory is perfectly reasonable economics that does work in a real world context as well as any other theory.
There are countless examples retold here on a regular basis on how people change their behaviour at the cliff-edges especially. People who won't work more than 16 hours as if they do they'll lose benefits at such a rate they'll earn no extra money. People who won't earn beyond the 100k threshold as if they do they'll be worse off. Etc, etc, etc
What is that if not the Laffer Curve working on a real world context.
Anyone who says we should cut from 47% to 45% "because Laffer" doesn't have a clue what they're talking about. Anyone who says we should deal with the 100% cliff edges "because Laffer" does.
The chancellor has shelved any immediate plans to make changes to cash Individual Savings Accounts (Isas), the BBC understands.
Strong, decisive u turns
The BBC report says the banks were not happy. Cash ISAs is big business for them.
I think it's part of the reason we've got a nicely competitive mortgage market. One bit of Britain that really works is our mortgage system (The debate over house prices is a separate thing) - but the rates are very close or sometimes even below the corresponding gilt yields. It's much better than the US mortgage system (Certainly since rates have risen globally) and I'm unconvinced all the cash ISA money would go into stocks and shares ISAs as Rachel would prefer. I note part of the BBB is Trump's $1000 of S&P for every US child born - something I floated a while back here that Reeves could implement say £500 of FTSE 350 for each child. That's a good way to directly inject more money into equities without treading on existing toes.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.
The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).
I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.
Quick experiment for everyone to try.
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.
In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.
No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.
@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.
In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.
I'm sorry if you think I'm stereotyping. My point is that in 2005 the LDs had a much broader range of seats including places like Leeds NW and Chesterfield where they have completely dropped off now. Whereas now the new seats are often demographically alike such as Wokingham and Tunbridge Wells. Nice England as someone said.
Ignore Foxy - one of the most partisan posters on this site. You're header is bang on the money even if the Lib Dems on here don't want to hear it.
Your ad hom comment has completely convinced me.
It's a good header, but it ought to be able to stand up to counter arguments without that sort of rubbish.
Thank you for the piece, @GarethoftheVale2 which wasn't easy reading for an LD supporter.
The truth is, the challenge the LDs face now is the one they have always faced, to build local success in previously fallow areas and over time turn that into parliamentary success.
The 1997 "gains" were largely in areas where the party had a proven track record of activity at local level and I suspect a similar correlation occurred in 2024. There were some new areas of parliamentary progress in seats which had resolutely remained Conservative in the past and in other areas the earlier progress had dissipated entirely and the party was once again irrelevant.
So much depends on having a dedicated core of hard working activists who put in the time and effort to build local bases, delivery and membership networks and a reputation for being there for the voters. When I was a Liberal and later LD activist it astonished me how much the Conservatives took their vote for granted and did little or nothing between elections - that has changed.
The other side of the challenge is to be heard beyond the seats already with an LD MP or where the party is challenging hard. Vast oceans of inactivity surround islands of activity - in London, you have the six LD seats but where are the seventh and eighth coming from?
Yes, we can concentrate on more "affluent" areas, as an example Wanstead has a Gail's and an M&S but is hardly fertile LD territory but it's not much different from parts of Woking.
However, "breaking out" from the heartlands into other areas either requires a fortuitous by-election or two or a distinctive policy selling point which can cut through but it's a crowded field and I don't know where that policy is currently.
Contrary to a few other views, I'm quite happy with Sir Ed and I think the 2024 intake is very strong with two or three real stars of the future (Josh Babarinde, Bobby Dean and Helen Maguire would be my picks so far).
Unless the current trajectory alters - which of course it might - the next general election is not set to be one for LD expansion rather than consolidation. It's going to be Reform v Labour and/or Tory as the main event, with LD v Tory and/or Reform in up to 100 seats.
This leaves loads of room for tactical voting, but outside seats where they contended in 2024, not in favour of the LDs.
A Tory/Reform electoral pact would change all that of course; but it would change everything else too.
My nephews are excited about the new Superman film. Better than expected, apparently.
A bit of simple optimism.
I'm looking forward to it, going to be the first superhero movie I take my girls to.
Wasn't too fussed with the last reboot, was too dark for Superman. It felt like after the success of the Dark Knight trilogy they'd decided everything should be dark and gritty but DC is supposed to have a deliberate contrast where Superman is the sunny, optimistic one while Batman is the dark and gritty one.
Aside from the Norwegians, today's ferry queue was a bunch of French motorcyclists, a couple of Finnish and a few Swedish vehicles, one Dane, one Dutch, an intrepid Spanish car, only me flying the flag for the UK, and a shedload of Germans in cars, campers, vans and motorbikes.
Off the ferry came something called a 'hotelbus', a double decker where the upper deck and some of the rear appeared to have been converted into compact accommodation for the travellers. Not seen one of those before..
Poor Mr Dog has a few hours confined in the car on the car deck, which he won't enjoy at all, especially with the numpties who don't turn their car alarms off. At least it is exceedingly calm today.
The chancellor has shelved any immediate plans to make changes to cash Individual Savings Accounts (Isas), the BBC understands.
Strong, decisive u turns
The BBC report says the banks were not happy. Cash ISAs is big business for them.
I suspect cash ISAs are useful to banks for prudential reasons. Thanks to their tax advantages and large proportion of fixed term investments they will be the last deposits to be withdrawn and could be used for capital requirements.
Comments
Otherwise if Kemi is removed in the next year or so Stride might be the best bet, a competent ex businessman who can try and at least hold the fiscally conservative voters who voted for Rishi last year, a few of whom who have drifted over to Reform.
While also winning back a few former Tory voters who went Labour or LD last year and don't see Kemi as heavyweight enough but too obsessed with her war on woke
I'd be personally very impressed if Starms can split in two, have two semi-successful solo careers for his two halves and then reunite himself to public adulation.
I'm really not sure how to feel about this. Whatever my reservations were about my place in the LabCon system, I feel like I'm going to be considerably more homeless in a RefLD model. I suspect this is true of quite a lot of people.
Don't get me wrong, I think they will retain a big portion of their gains but I do not see 2024 Vote efficiency happening for them again and they will lose some of them (not ruling out a few pick ups too)
Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.
Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.
Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.
Give them a new office, pay rise and stop talking down the Civil Service and see the ONS growth estimates sky-rocket
Where the LDs are in the top 2 it is mostly in posh seats in the South against the Tories, not a single LD held seat had Reform second at the general election and not a single Reform seat had the LDs second.
Indeed in Labour held marginal seats the LD vote would likely be squeezed by Labour if anything to try and keep Reform out
recap
ambulance A+
A&E A+
Ward C-
Now the new stuff
Community health have been in contact, first of all apparently they have had problems contacting me because the hospital has no record of me ever being admitted! How the hell does that happen
On top of that they seem intent on supplying me on a home help that I do not need in the least the point I ended up telling them if they sent one round they will be told where to go. They also should should be applying for PIP which I don't need as I am returning to full time work and just as capable as before the incident. Not surprised therefore that numbers on PIP are rising if they are pushing folk like me towards it.
Also I had to ring the ward yesterday to supply my gp name (I wasn't registered anywhere when admitted but did after I discharged myself). The ward nurse when I rang seemed confused by ringing as according to her I still on the ward. Does not inspire confidence in their record keeping frankly
The problems with NHS, Justice system and universities, the first 2 being due to backlogs initially created by austerity and the 3rd to the tuition fee system, all stem from the Coalition govt.
That's 3 very big problems just for example, I'm far more hazy on any successes, bar some social liberalisation in legislation but that would have happened anyway, despite the desperate reactionary backlashes from the right wing media, over time the UK is becoming more socially liberal.
Otherwise a good analysis, I'm cheered by the conclusion that the Lib Dems have a natural ceiling to their current nimby, well-off middle class appeal and that they could lose support to the Greens.
People have little interest in what structural changes are needed to achieve it, just as people don't know how a smart phone works. In that sense people are not radical or thirsting for change.
Having said that, @OnlyLivingBoy might claim some expertise, earning his living as an economist, I think?
The urban core is likely to stay Labour, or left of Labour. The rural shires are a Tory/Reform battleground. This leaves places that could be really "naice" if they were a bit more prosperous.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx24d70gw41o
That's a hostage to fortune.
"Secretly admiring Farage without quite having the nerve to vote for him" isn't a winning niche.
Which would be more likely to enable the existence of a party quite well tailored to your views.
Note that Farage also claims to support PR, though in his case I expect it's more a matter of past expediency that actual principle.
Reality is probably only viewable in hindsight in 5 years from the longterm trend.
Reform will be laughing all the way to the ballot box.
(2) is quite hard. Of the 6 seats in Cumbria, including mine, (one is LD) 5 were Tory in 2019; 5 are Labour now; 5 are projected to be Reform in 2029. What is the correct anti-Reform vote?
But LD? Not a chance.
outnumber the sorts of voters who actually vote for them.
The Conservatives USP has always been about keeping Labour out. If someone else has come along who can do that better...
Which, given there are only three of them, I accept is somewhat limiting.
Or to crash and burn. I know where my money is.
Posher rural areas are also still just about Tory even if Reform are snapping at their heals
I have a few days off, so have been visiting my elderly folks. I am not impressed with their GP practice. Fundamentally it isn't the system that is at fault so much as the unwillingness to take action and decisions. Fundamentally it is a lack of confidence and training.
I see that too in my hospital work where I am seen as the Wizard of Oz, with an endless stream of petitioners wanting me to sort out problems that they could sort out perfectly well themselves. Its a fear of making decisions and sticking by them.
The parties reach out to less ideological voters by cultivating a veneer of competence and by not being the other lot.
Smaller parties only survive by virtue of having a clear identity of why they exist and how they differ from the big parties. Only more ideological or engaged voters will choose to absent themself from the main political battle between the two big parties.
This is stable as long as the big parties are bigger than the small parties, but it means the system can rapidly flip to a different stable state should one of the big parties fall behind a small party. The Tories are floundering because they're a formerly big party being treated like a small one.
I think the Lib Dems missed out on a historic opportunity to regain big party status at GE2024. They're still fourth in the polls, and it looks like Reform will leapfrog them to become one of the big two parties in FPTP politics.
I did not see any point staying in, physically I was fine and mentally. They only problem remaining was I had lost the ability to speak after the seizures. They did the paperwork. I was doing was taking up a bed and I could not sleep in there because of the perpetual noise.
After a good night sleep at home my speech and typing has started returning. Still issues but getting better day by day. Turned out from the MRI it wasn't a stroke anyway just a brain tumour so not any reason to stay in.
Four biggies for me:
1. Price of energy - we pay absurdly high amounts for energy which is pegged to the import price of gas we largely don't import. This inflates the price of everything which is why we have such a deep cost of living crisis.
We need to copy Spain and decouple energy prices from gas. Further than that, we need to remap our thinking behind the energy grid - Miliband is sadly frit on this subject. We are paying to switch off wind turbines because the grid doesn't have the transmission capacity to send the power dahn sarf. Spend that money on capacity FFS it isn't difficult.
Cut wholesale energy prices by 20%+ and inflation crashes. The economy functions better and people are removed from crippling energy poverty. Combine that with a program of home insulation and micro solar generation on your roof and we can collapse energy prices for good. Which means industry can afford to be in the UK which brings investment and jobs and growth.
2. Price of housing. The market doesn't work. Developers build far too slowly and they are building executive-style rat trap homes that we already have a glut of. What we need is apartments and starter homes - ones not clad in PlebBurn3000 by RBKC. Planning applications take too long and once granted developers don't build unless they think they can make enough profit.
Empower Housing Associations to borrow and get fast tracked-planning like they are government, but build commercially - operational independence. Every unit built is Not For Sale. Ever. Let at social rents, which collapses the rentier class private landlord sector which floods the market with homes.
Of course to build homes we need a workforce. Make construction a national priority. Fund colleges to train brickies, sparkies, plumbers etc. Tax breaks on factories to make bricks. We can't avoid migrant labour if we don't have domestic replacements. Get on it.
[part 1]
3. A market economy again. The economy for so many people doesn't pay their bills no matter how hard they work. Points 1 and 2 address the cost of living, which means more disposable income. But we need productive labour. Companies have stopped investing in kit and in people, but were given fat tax breaks away. So if you want your discounted council tax and a discounted UC-supported work force, you need to invest in skills and training. Make Capitalism Great Again. Borrow, invest, make a Return on that investment. For industry, the state, regions and local government. Stop burning cash on administration and start investing.
4. Smash the Treasury idiocy. Apparently we can't afford police officers or criminal justice - as if crime is cost free. We can't afford teachers but can afford emergency supply cover and crisis management. Can't afford NHS medical capacity - doctors, nurses, beds - but can afford 400 levels of market-driven management tiers.
A local example. Aberdeenshire council - faced with an ever-widening funding hole thanks to the SNP taking £34m a year off them - are faced with a choice of unpalatable cuts. So have declared they will remove half the grit bins. Which apparently will save money. Will lead to a load more accidents and costs both on the NHS and on business as people fall over, but that cost isn't on this year's council budget so its therefore zero cost. Bullshit. Same with cutting the police and the courts and teachers and not building roads and railways and airports.
I could go on all day. Plus add in that the UK in its current form is largely unworkable, so go federal. etc
Off the ferry came something called a 'hotelbus', a double decker where the upper deck and some of the rear appeared to have been converted into compact accommodation for the travellers. Not seen one of those before..
Poor Mr Dog has a few hours confined in the car on the car deck, which he won't enjoy at all, especially with the numpties who don't turn their car alarms off. At least it is exceedingly calm today.
It was the Royal Free, and I was OK and a Friday in the noughties - to do all the paperwork would have meant staying in until the Monday. So they accepted with my suggestion that I self-discharge (which would possibly have freed up the bed), and it was sign a form a bit later and go home, which was 10 minutes' walk.
Let me give you an example in my area. Sandhurst is a nice town and the LDs won the council wards there at the last local elections. However, Sandhurst is in the Bracknell constituency whose largest part is Bracknell, which is a very working class town and a LD desert.
Last time the LDs got 10.9% in the constituency and came 4th:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bracknell_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The recent Yougov MRP showed Ref 28%, Con 25%, Lab 25%, LD 11%, Green 10%
Even if LDs send all their Wokingham activists over the border it's still going to be difficult to try and persuade people that they are the answer to stopping Reform when Con and Lab are much closer.
This is why national vote share matters so much. If they could get up to 15-20% nationally then that puts them into contention in a lot more seats.
The problem is it's very hard to work out where you are on it until it's too late, and hysteresis exists, so you can't even find out where you are on it by experimentation, because the shape of the curve is changed by the experiment.
Shifting resources away from things where the consequences are someone else's problem is, of course, appealing to hard pressed councils (and others) trying to balance books. But often a terrible idea for the country.
They might regain it under Alan Jenrick B'Stard...
I interpret this to mean there's potential in a lot more places (10% or less of the vote was typical polling throughout most of the last parliament). Even in apparently barren areas like the Midlands we have quite a lot of support. The LDs are the second largest group on Leics County Council now, after Reform.
I think a lot of LD voters already vote tactically in national elections particularly in seats where the prospects are gloomy, and similarly in many LD held seats many of the voters would Identify as Labour, Green or even Cameron Conservatives, but voted LD tactically.
Davey's challenge is to get those inward Tactical Voters to identify as LD, and also to pick target seats in the remainder of the country. I think the Leics Tory seats are vulnerable to a LD/Reform squeeze for example, with LDs recruiting the Labour support in those seats. I am sure there's similar prospects elsewhere.
Good article, and analysis. Thanks for writing it.
A female Four-spotted Footman, with very funky electric-blue legs.
I agree with BOTH sides. @Foxy is right in that we are doing a lot better than is made out. There is some political sneering about the party and our support which is still acting like it is 2015. This is nonsense.
But I also agree with the broad tone of @Garethofthevale 's piece that we have largely hit a ceiling and further growth will be tough.
My own platform is that we need to stay nice - as a counter to the callous bastards - but need real policies to transform people's lives. Support for carers is nice, but only scratches the surface.
Reform have demonstrated that there is a deep-rooted appetite for real change. The LabCon can't offer anything, but we could. If we grew a set.
But I might have cracked the case. Most Reform candidates will be former Tories ( MPs and Councillors). Reform finish on 400 seats the Tories on 50. On the first day of the Commons sitting, 95% of the former Tories cross the floor and retake the Tory whip. They all then recross the floor to the Government benches casting the Remaining Reformers, including PB's Leon to join Angela Rayner, the Greens and the Lib Dems on the opposition benches.
Our own HYUFD becomes a Government whip.
A bit of simple optimism.
My only comment is probably to not underestimate Davey.
On Chesterfield, I'd still call that to go Lib Dem not Reform. It is very different and more prosperous than say Mansfield, which is 6-7 miles the other side of the M1. It also has a far more enlightened council as far as I can see. It will be interesting to see how the two come out in positioning after the Local Government changes.
https://www.globaldata.com/media/retail/uk-election-poll-aldi-lidl-shoppers-want-conservative-victory/
Waitrose shoppers have the highest LD support there.
There's apparently a 2024 poll as reported by the press, but it's pay to view (the headline in the press is that only Waitrose had a plurality* for the Tories - https://www.theguardian.com/money/article/2024/may/29/waitrose-only-major-supermarket-with-majority-tory-customers-polls-show)
*they say majority, but with a 1.2pp lead over next highest (Lab?) I think a plurality is more likely
Thank you for the piece, @GarethoftheVale2 which wasn't easy reading for an LD supporter.
The truth is, the challenge the LDs face now is the one they have always faced, to build local success in previously fallow areas and over time turn that into parliamentary success.
The 1997 "gains" were largely in areas where the party had a proven track record of activity at local level and I suspect a similar correlation occurred in 2024. There were some new areas of parliamentary progress in seats which had resolutely remained Conservative in the past and in other areas the earlier progress had dissipated entirely and the party was once again irrelevant.
So much depends on having a dedicated core of hard working activists who put in the time and effort to build local bases, delivery and membership networks and a reputation for being there for the voters. When I was a Liberal and later LD activist it astonished me how much the Conservatives took their vote for granted and did little or nothing between elections - that has changed.
The other side of the challenge is to be heard beyond the seats already with an LD MP or where the party is challenging hard. Vast oceans of inactivity surround islands of activity - in London, you have the six LD seats but where are the seventh and eighth coming from?
Yes, we can concentrate on more "affluent" areas, as an example Wanstead has a Gail's and an M&S but is hardly fertile LD territory but it's not much different from parts of Woking.
However, "breaking out" from the heartlands into other areas either requires a fortuitous by-election or two or a distinctive policy selling point which can cut through but it's a crowded field and I don't know where that policy is currently.
Contrary to a few other views, I'm quite happy with Sir Ed and I think the 2024 intake is very strong with two or three real stars of the future (Josh Babarinde, Bobby Dean and Helen Maguire would be my picks so far).
GM is growing fast.
We will expand @BeeNetwork over the next decade to meet the needs of our bigger economy.
BUT
There’s a limit to what we can do on a congested surface.
It’s why I am asking TfGM to start planning for an underground for GM around a remodelled Piccadilly.
https://bsky.app/profile/andyburnham.bsky.social/post/3ltllc2urmk2c
Reform have 30% with an appetite for change (though like Brexit no clear idea of what that change and it's consequences are, apart from being beastly to foreigners and their descendents), but that leaves 70% who don't want a great deal of change, just a return to a more orderly and kind country where public services function and the national finances are in order.
All Economics is subject to debate on how it works in a real world context. Any economist worth their salt would always place caveats onw what they're saying.
The Laffer Curve is abused, but the theory is perfectly reasonable economics that does work in a real world context as well as any other theory.
There are countless examples retold here on a regular basis on how people change their behaviour at the cliff-edges especially. People who won't work more than 16 hours as if they do they'll lose benefits at such a rate they'll earn no extra money. People who won't earn beyond the 100k threshold as if they do they'll be worse off. Etc, etc, etc
What is that if not the Laffer Curve working on a real world context.
Anyone who says we should cut from 47% to 45% "because Laffer" doesn't have a clue what they're talking about. Anyone who says we should deal with the 100% cliff edges "because Laffer" does.
I note part of the BBB is Trump's $1000 of S&P for every US child born - something I floated a while back here that Reeves could implement say £500 of FTSE 350 for each child. That's a good way to directly inject more money into equities without treading on existing toes.
It's a good header, but it ought to be able to stand up to counter arguments without that sort of rubbish.
This leaves loads of room for tactical voting, but outside seats where they contended in 2024, not in favour of the LDs.
A Tory/Reform electoral pact would change all that of course; but it would change everything else too.
Wasn't too fussed with the last reboot, was too dark for Superman. It felt like after the success of the Dark Knight trilogy they'd decided everything should be dark and gritty but DC is supposed to have a deliberate contrast where Superman is the sunny, optimistic one while Batman is the dark and gritty one.
Paul McCartney and Wings used one of those in the 1970s. Remember "Band on the Run"? My photo quota - the sprog is Stella:
https://news.artnet.com/art-world/paul-mccartney-tour-bus-auction-2375607