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An inauspicious start for the splitter – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,060
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq8ze23vx4po

    Sir Keir Starmer has said he "understands what anchors" US President Donald Trump, having built a relationship on shared family values.

    Despite "different political backgrounds" the prime minister said he found common ground with Trump, and that their "good personal relationship" helped land a vital US tariff deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,018

    "America has just dropped a big, beautiful, bunker-busting bomb on its own economy."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/03/trump-has-dropped-big-beautiful-bomb-on-americas-economy

    And thus a lot of others' economies i assume.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,456

    "America has just dropped a big, beautiful, bunker-busting bomb on its own economy."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/03/trump-has-dropped-big-beautiful-bomb-on-americas-economy

    One of the things that has surprised me about the last nearly 6 months of Trump is how unheated things have been between the US and China. China has remained relatively restrained and diplomatic. I suspect that they are willing to take some pain and to allow MAGA/GOP to get on with trashing America's soft-power and future economy.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 375

    Andy_JS said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good morning, everyone. On my smartphone, on the 'main site'. Hopefully no longer subhuman.

    That's not a good piece of coordination for launching a new party, indeed. Mistake or deliberate sabotage?

    Good morning. The main site still isn't working for me.
    Morning all.

    Finally managed to get back on the site after more than a week without access.
    And me!
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,402
    glw said:

    "America has just dropped a big, beautiful, bunker-busting bomb on its own economy."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/03/trump-has-dropped-big-beautiful-bomb-on-americas-economy

    One of the things that has surprised me about the last nearly 6 months of Trump is how unheated things have been between the US and China. China has remained relatively restrained and diplomatic. I suspect that they are willing to take some pain and to allow MAGA/GOP to get on with trashing America's soft-power and future economy.
    Classic, “never interrupt your enemy whilst they are making a mistake” policy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,043

    If Trump's poll numbers don't tank after passing the Big Beautiful Bill, then there's Starmer's answer to the nation's economic woes - take the entitlement to the NHS away from a big chunk of voters.

    Mostly in areas voting Labour.

    Plus tax breaks for the rich. All funded on the never never. But don't worry, Andrew Bailey soon to be replaced by a party hack.

    You know it makes sense.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,112
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Oh no, don't believe it.

    "TfL boss refuses to explain new Piccadilly line trains delay

    Transport for London's Andy Lord has refused to publicly explain why the introduction of new Piccadilly line trains has been delayed by a year. The commissioner, when pressed by London Assembly member Keith Prince, said the exact reasons are 'complicated' but that he is willing to provide information off-camera."

    https://www.mylondon.news/news/transport/tfl-boss-apologises-delay-new-31987292

    I can believe that - press want a simple story and I suspect the real story is 4 or 6 niggles that are somehow impacting each other.
    Hitachi have really dropped a bollock with the new Class 810 trains for the MML.

    "New trains connecting Derby, Nottingham, Leicester and Sheffield with London are facing more delays before they are introduced.

    East Midlands Railway's fleet of Class 810 Aurora trains were originally meant to enter service in 2022 but have yet to be used by passengers."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq53z6gnqjyo

    This is potentially a massive issue, as EMR's current stock is due to be cascaded to other operators. Someone may end up without enough trains to operate services...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,043

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq8ze23vx4po

    Sir Keir Starmer has said he "understands what anchors" US President Donald Trump, having built a relationship on shared family values.

    Despite "different political backgrounds" the prime minister said he found common ground with Trump, and that their "good personal relationship" helped land a vital US tariff deal.

    "Family values" a la Don Corleone.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,023
    kinabalu said:

    If Trump's poll numbers don't tank after passing the Big Beautiful Bill, then there's Starmer's answer to the nation's economic woes - take the entitlement to the NHS away from a big chunk of voters.

    Mostly in areas voting Labour.

    Plus tax breaks for the rich. All funded on the never never. But don't worry, Andrew Bailey soon to be replaced by a party hack.

    You know it makes sense.
    Many people will accept pain, if they think worse pain is being inflicted on those that they despise.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,043
    Scott_xP said:

    Harsh, but fair...

    @mocent0

    If the answer is Zarah Sultana, what the fuck was the question?!

    https://x.com/mocent0/status/1941036925370138749

    Already framed - Socialism or Barbarism?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,526

    Andy_JS said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good morning, everyone. On my smartphone, on the 'main site'. Hopefully no longer subhuman.

    That's not a good piece of coordination for launching a new party, indeed. Mistake or deliberate sabotage?

    Good morning. The main site still isn't working for me.
    Morning all.

    Finally managed to get back on the site after more than a week without access.
    And me!
    Now we're finding out who failed the "are you human?" test. Interesting. They walk among us :smiley:
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,220

    Andy_JS said:

    "‘Police said I violated the Human Rights Act for cycling no-handed’

    Cyclist claims he was given a ticket because he contravened Article 2 which covers the right to life"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/04/police-cyclist-human-rights-act-no-hands-ticket/

    Haven't we debunked this ? Officer misspoke, it's RTA not HRA, cycling without due care...

    Bloke is lucky that "being a bellend" isn't a specific offence.
    RTA article 2 doesn't apply to bicycles

    Unicycles are road legal...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,043
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Trump's poll numbers don't tank after passing the Big Beautiful Bill, then there's Starmer's answer to the nation's economic woes - take the entitlement to the NHS away from a big chunk of voters.

    Mostly in areas voting Labour.

    Plus tax breaks for the rich. All funded on the never never. But don't worry, Andrew Bailey soon to be replaced by a party hack.

    You know it makes sense.
    Many people will accept pain, if they think worse pain is being inflicted on those that they despise.
    An iteration of "annoying the right people".

    Sadly prevalent, and a ticket to nowhere.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,023
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Trump's poll numbers don't tank after passing the Big Beautiful Bill, then there's Starmer's answer to the nation's economic woes - take the entitlement to the NHS away from a big chunk of voters.

    Mostly in areas voting Labour.

    Plus tax breaks for the rich. All funded on the never never. But don't worry, Andrew Bailey soon to be replaced by a party hack.

    You know it makes sense.
    Many people will accept pain, if they think worse pain is being inflicted on those that they despise.
    An iteration of "annoying the right people".

    Sadly prevalent, and a ticket to nowhere.
    I think it’s one of the hallmarks of a “sick society.”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,637

    Andy_JS said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good morning, everyone. On my smartphone, on the 'main site'. Hopefully no longer subhuman.

    That's not a good piece of coordination for launching a new party, indeed. Mistake or deliberate sabotage?

    Good morning. The main site still isn't working for me.
    Morning all.

    Finally managed to get back on the site after more than a week without access.
    And me!
    Vanilla upgrade.

    Up there with "railway passenger bus replacement service"!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,384
    Indy wipes everyone out in the last of this weeks locals - he came second to Reform in the county council version of this seat in May so even they have been cannibalised

    Calverton (Gedling) Council By-Election Result:

    🙋 Ind: 66.3% (New)
    ➡️ RFM: 17.9% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 8.0% (-20.6)
    🌳 CON: 6.2% (-44.1)
    🌍 GRN: 1.1% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 0.4% (New)

    No Ind (-21.1) as previous.

    Independent GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,827

    Andy_JS said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good morning, everyone. On my smartphone, on the 'main site'. Hopefully no longer subhuman.

    That's not a good piece of coordination for launching a new party, indeed. Mistake or deliberate sabotage?

    Good morning. The main site still isn't working for me.
    Morning all.

    Finally managed to get back on the site after more than a week without access.
    Same here, but you could get on via Vanilla (or at least I could). Are you aware of that @Richard_Tyndall?

    For those that don't know: https://vf.politicalbetting.com
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,023
    boulay said:

    glw said:

    "America has just dropped a big, beautiful, bunker-busting bomb on its own economy."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/03/trump-has-dropped-big-beautiful-bomb-on-americas-economy

    One of the things that has surprised me about the last nearly 6 months of Trump is how unheated things have been between the US and China. China has remained relatively restrained and diplomatic. I suspect that they are willing to take some pain and to allow MAGA/GOP to get on with trashing America's soft-power and future economy.
    Classic, “never interrupt your enemy whilst they are making a mistake” policy.
    They can’t believe their luck at the amount of self-harm their chief rival is inflicting.

    The recent behaviour of both the USA and Russia challenges the “Realist” doctrine that states are rational, in pursuit of foreign policy goals.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,179
    Dopermean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "‘Police said I violated the Human Rights Act for cycling no-handed’

    Cyclist claims he was given a ticket because he contravened Article 2 which covers the right to life"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/04/police-cyclist-human-rights-act-no-hands-ticket/

    Haven't we debunked this ? Officer misspoke, it's RTA not HRA, cycling without due care...

    Bloke is lucky that "being a bellend" isn't a specific offence.
    RTA article 2 doesn't apply to bicycles

    Unicycles are road legal...
    But someone else made the point you can brake with your feet on a unicycle. Though that logic doesn't apply to someone cycling a fixie, which remains illegal unless you have brakes on your handlebar.

    The whole thing is a bit silly. I enjoyed a drunken debate last weekend - if you swing your leg over your top tube at a red light are you now scooting, and therefore free from the provisions of the RTA?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,179
    I'd like to welcome back all the bots.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,480

    Taz said:

    My pic of the day. Local woods to me, used to be a local dogging place apparently. Lovely this time of day.


    This is the sort of high quality local reporting we want, not that subsidised BBC rubbish ;)
    If you zoom very carefully you can see a couple going at it in the background.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,827

    Indy wipes everyone out in the last of this weeks locals - he came second to Reform in the county council version of this seat in May so even they have been cannibalised

    Calverton (Gedling) Council By-Election Result:

    🙋 Ind: 66.3% (New)
    ➡️ RFM: 17.9% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 8.0% (-20.6)
    🌳 CON: 6.2% (-44.1)
    🌍 GRN: 1.1% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 0.4% (New)

    No Ind (-21.1) as previous.

    Independent GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.

    Presumably it is a subset of the County seat and this Borough ward might be his/her specific area of support within the County ward. That is quite a common occurrence.

    Still I agree with you, it is quite impressive.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,112
    Eabhal said:

    Dopermean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "‘Police said I violated the Human Rights Act for cycling no-handed’

    Cyclist claims he was given a ticket because he contravened Article 2 which covers the right to life"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/04/police-cyclist-human-rights-act-no-hands-ticket/

    Haven't we debunked this ? Officer misspoke, it's RTA not HRA, cycling without due care...

    Bloke is lucky that "being a bellend" isn't a specific offence.
    RTA article 2 doesn't apply to bicycles

    Unicycles are road legal...
    But someone else made the point you can brake with your feet on a unicycle. Though that logic doesn't apply to someone cycling a fixie, which remains illegal unless you have brakes on your handlebar.

    The whole thing is a bit silly. I enjoyed a drunken debate last weekend - if you swing your leg over your top tube at a red light are you now scooting, and therefore free from the provisions of the RTA?
    I've just had bolt-on aerobars put onto my crummy bike. I'm really enjoying using them, but there're no brakes or gears on them (*), which means to brake you need to shift your hands onto the drops or hoods in order to brake.

    (*) You can get gears on more expensive versions; but not brakes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,152
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Trump's poll numbers don't tank after passing the Big Beautiful Bill, then there's Starmer's answer to the nation's economic woes - take the entitlement to the NHS away from a big chunk of voters.

    Mostly in areas voting Labour.

    Plus tax breaks for the rich. All funded on the never never. But don't worry, Andrew Bailey soon to be replaced by a party hack.

    You know it makes sense.
    Many people will accept pain, if they think worse pain is being inflicted on those that they despise.
    An iteration of "annoying the right people".

    Sadly prevalent, and a ticket to nowhere.
    It won Trump the Presidency

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1940932231221932507
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,112
    Eabhal said:

    I'd like to welcome back all the bots.

    Some of us never left... ;)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,132
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    For reasons unknown Ed seems to want mini wind turbines in people’s gardens. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/04/miliband-plots-garden-windfarm-revolution/

    Has anyone ever seen ones that are small enough to fit in a garden and actually work

    I can't find the consultation doc.

    The garden wind turbines are very niche indeed. I'd say only applicable in a 1-2 gardens per thousand or less. 125 were installed last year in England, where the UK Govt does planning and this wil lapply. It needs a smooth, sweeping wind across a plain landscape - ideally up a valley.

    The biggest limitation under the old rules, where the max for Permitted Development was iirc a 2m turbine on a 10m mast, and it was required to be 11m from any boundary (effectively so it could fall flat in your garden with no encroachment). That means any garden needs basically to accommodate an ~25m circle round the turbine mast.

    I looked back at Cameron-Husky time at putting one on one of the highest ridges in Notts (650ft) with such a wind, and the numbers and windspeeds were nowhere near. OTOH these are now much more widespread on small boats,and technology has moved forward, and lecky prices may make it more doable.

    It may get the crusties in the Cotswolds cackling at each other, and give the tabloids a diversionary dog chew, but what I think are proposals for communally owned wind generation are far more significant.

    I think most of these would be outskirts of villages, domestic gardens of farms and off grid houses.
    There's quite a big range between community wind farms (Gigha etc), local farmers with quite a big turbine (Moray/Aberdeenshire), and houses on Orkney with tiny ones strapped to strainer posts at the end of the garden - I think there are about 700 on Orkney alone btw.
    So that's about 6-7% of dwellings on Orkney (total ~10500). That's a good illustration of one end of the spectrum.

    A recent Buildhub thread, with a couple of accounts from the Highlands and Islands.
    https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/25118-has-anyone-got-a-wind-turbine/

    We've been debating them since the Green Buildings forum was running from about 2000, and there's lots of good advice. Two useful numbers to think about are that power is proportional to the cube of wind speed, and the swept area of the turbine. Places like Orkney get 15-20 hrs of wind daily aiui.

    I'd use one for something like an LED lighting system and small winter dehumidifier in a shed, with suitable battery storage.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,179

    Eabhal said:

    Dopermean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "‘Police said I violated the Human Rights Act for cycling no-handed’

    Cyclist claims he was given a ticket because he contravened Article 2 which covers the right to life"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/04/police-cyclist-human-rights-act-no-hands-ticket/

    Haven't we debunked this ? Officer misspoke, it's RTA not HRA, cycling without due care...

    Bloke is lucky that "being a bellend" isn't a specific offence.
    RTA article 2 doesn't apply to bicycles

    Unicycles are road legal...
    But someone else made the point you can brake with your feet on a unicycle. Though that logic doesn't apply to someone cycling a fixie, which remains illegal unless you have brakes on your handlebar.

    The whole thing is a bit silly. I enjoyed a drunken debate last weekend - if you swing your leg over your top tube at a red light are you now scooting, and therefore free from the provisions of the RTA?
    I've just had bolt-on aerobars put onto my crummy bike. I'm really enjoying using them, but there're no brakes or gears on them (*), which means to brake you need to shift your hands onto the drops or hoods in order to brake.

    (*) You can get gears on more expensive versions; but not brakes.
    As long as you can get your hands on them as fast as you could your feet on the brakes in a car I guess it's fine.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,049
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    It's a good thing that we have more parties that represent different strands of British politics. Whether it can work in a FPTP system is another matter.

    My 160/1 on Sultana as next Labour leader looks like money wasted.

    This new party will not be representing different strands of British politics.

    It will be representing a strand of Middle Eastern politics.
    10% of the electorate according to the polling. You may not like them much, but that is a significant chunk of our electorate.
    It might be a significant chunk but I really don't see this as a healthy development. It will masquerade as a far-left party but in reality it will be an islamic party that is more concerned with Gaza than with the issues that really concern most of the country.

    An essentially Islamic party in the HoC will further fuel Reform's growth. I generally agree with you on most things (and love the avatar from Cabaret by the way -sums up exactly how I feel these days!) but I think you are dangerously naive about the effect that political islam is having everywhere across Europe.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,384
    edited July 4
    kjh said:

    Indy wipes everyone out in the last of this weeks locals - he came second to Reform in the county council version of this seat in May so even they have been cannibalised

    Calverton (Gedling) Council By-Election Result:

    🙋 Ind: 66.3% (New)
    ➡️ RFM: 17.9% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 8.0% (-20.6)
    🌳 CON: 6.2% (-44.1)
    🌍 GRN: 1.1% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 0.4% (New)

    No Ind (-21.1) as previous.

    Independent GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.

    Presumably it is a subset of the County seat and this Borough ward might be his/her specific area of support within the County ward. That is quite a common occurrence.

    Still I agree with you, it is quite impressive.
    Apparently he fancied his chances in the county ward but was delayed getting his leaflet out till after postals. He says he was better prepared this time!
    The Con collapse is eye watering and the LD getting 8 votes must be close to a record low for a major party in raw numbers in a council election??
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Scott_xP said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Trump's poll numbers don't tank after passing the Big Beautiful Bill, then there's Starmer's answer to the nation's economic woes - take the entitlement to the NHS away from a big chunk of voters.

    Mostly in areas voting Labour.

    Plus tax breaks for the rich. All funded on the never never. But don't worry, Andrew Bailey soon to be replaced by a party hack.

    You know it makes sense.
    Many people will accept pain, if they think worse pain is being inflicted on those that they despise.
    An iteration of "annoying the right people".

    Sadly prevalent, and a ticket to nowhere.
    It won Trump the Presidency

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1940932231221932507
    Also reminds me a bit of 'punching up/down', where 'down' = hitting a group I disapprove of being hit, and 'up' = hitting a group I approve of being hit.

    Recent polling showed most voters supported the richest paying a higher rate of tax even if that led to more of them leaving, reducing the overall tax take. It's dumb as hell, but vindictive envy trumped (ahem) mathematics and logic.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,526
    Nick Robinson sits down with Starmer to review his first year:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg5dgr4mepo

    Reminds me how good Robinson was as political editor. Not a great read for Starmer though.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,826

    Indy wipes everyone out in the last of this weeks locals - he came second to Reform in the county council version of this seat in May so even they have been cannibalised

    Calverton (Gedling) Council By-Election Result:

    🙋 Ind: 66.3% (New)
    ➡️ RFM: 17.9% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 8.0% (-20.6)
    🌳 CON: 6.2% (-44.1)
    🌍 GRN: 1.1% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 0.4% (New)

    No Ind (-21.1) as previous.

    Independent GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.

    A 55% swing from Conservative to Independent which, if repeated at a GE, wouldn't be...

    Brave for the LD to stand for 8 votes as well which just goes to show there are no "no-go" areas for the party these days....

    Good call on Fulham Town by the way - in the end, probably the best Conservative result of the evening though what it means for the London locals next year (if anything) I'm not sure. Newark was a win but only just and it was suggested the Conservatives threw the kitchen sink at the seat so how that portends for Jenrick's chances of holding Newark at a GE I'm not sure.

    Some very close finishes in the other contests.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,719
    Andy_JS said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good morning, everyone. On my smartphone, on the 'main site'. Hopefully no longer subhuman.

    That's not a good piece of coordination for launching a new party, indeed. Mistake or deliberate sabotage?

    Good morning. The main site still isn't working for me.
    Then hopefully it's just early days in the restoration rather than a permanent problem.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,526


    Gordon Brown seems the closest analog, looking at this.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,384
    edited July 4
    stodge said:

    Indy wipes everyone out in the last of this weeks locals - he came second to Reform in the county council version of this seat in May so even they have been cannibalised

    Calverton (Gedling) Council By-Election Result:

    🙋 Ind: 66.3% (New)
    ➡️ RFM: 17.9% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 8.0% (-20.6)
    🌳 CON: 6.2% (-44.1)
    🌍 GRN: 1.1% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 0.4% (New)

    No Ind (-21.1) as previous.

    Independent GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.

    A 55% swing from Conservative to Independent which, if repeated at a GE, wouldn't be...

    Brave for the LD to stand for 8 votes as well which just goes to show there are no "no-go" areas for the party these days....

    Good call on Fulham Town by the way - in the end, probably the best Conservative result of the evening though what it means for the London locals next year (if anything) I'm not sure. Newark was a win but only just and it was suggested the Conservatives threw the kitchen sink at the seat so how that portends for Jenrick's chances of holding Newark at a GE I'm not sure.

    Some very close finishes in the other contests.
    Newark was a 'headline' good result for the Tories but yeah, having had Kemi there on polling day it was much closer than i think they anticipated.
    Fulham - yes their vote held up from 2022, reform in fourth, Labour and LD votes slipping a bit. Probably means the ultra marginal Chelsea and Fulham becomes favourite for a London gain for Con in 2029, and if the inner western seats go similarly theyll feel more comfortable about holding Kensington council and gaining Westminster back and targetting Kensington and Bayswater at the GE
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,826
    edited July 4
    Morning all :)

    On topic, it will be interesting to see the impact of any "new" group on Inner London politics. Here in Newham, we have a Mayoral election next year as well as the local contests. With Councillor Fiaz looking to be on the way out, Labour will have to find a new candidate and I suspect the Newham Independents will be looking for a strong local candidate.

    Whether we will see a single slate of anti-Labour candidates from the "left" is another question - could TUSC, Galloway's mob and the various Independents agree to stand single candidates in Wards in places like Newham, Redbridge, Hackney and Lewisham against Labour? What about the Greens?

    Locally, I think we could be in for some surprises in Newham next year.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,043
    Scott_xP said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Trump's poll numbers don't tank after passing the Big Beautiful Bill, then there's Starmer's answer to the nation's economic woes - take the entitlement to the NHS away from a big chunk of voters.

    Mostly in areas voting Labour.

    Plus tax breaks for the rich. All funded on the never never. But don't worry, Andrew Bailey soon to be replaced by a party hack.

    You know it makes sense.
    Many people will accept pain, if they think worse pain is being inflicted on those that they despise.
    An iteration of "annoying the right people".

    Sadly prevalent, and a ticket to nowhere.
    It won Trump the Presidency

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1940932231221932507
    Yes exactly. Poor outcomes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,950
    On duty and to attention awaiting the midday salute for the Queen's Birthday
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,527
    edited July 4
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good morning, everyone. On my smartphone, on the 'main site'. Hopefully no longer subhuman.

    That's not a good piece of coordination for launching a new party, indeed. Mistake or deliberate sabotage?

    Good morning. The main site still isn't working for me.
    Morning all.

    Finally managed to get back on the site after more than a week without access.
    And me!
    Now we're finding out who failed the "are you human?" test. Interesting. They walk among us :smiley:
    There have been three separate things blocking PB for some.
    • Are you human? came from Cloudflare.
    • An expired certificate on not-Vanilla that might be cached in the cloud somewhere rather than on rcs1000's kit
    • Vanilla has been updating its infrastructure since 24/6 to today
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,023

    stodge said:

    Indy wipes everyone out in the last of this weeks locals - he came second to Reform in the county council version of this seat in May so even they have been cannibalised

    Calverton (Gedling) Council By-Election Result:

    🙋 Ind: 66.3% (New)
    ➡️ RFM: 17.9% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 8.0% (-20.6)
    🌳 CON: 6.2% (-44.1)
    🌍 GRN: 1.1% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 0.4% (New)

    No Ind (-21.1) as previous.

    Independent GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.

    A 55% swing from Conservative to Independent which, if repeated at a GE, wouldn't be...

    Brave for the LD to stand for 8 votes as well which just goes to show there are no "no-go" areas for the party these days....

    Good call on Fulham Town by the way - in the end, probably the best Conservative result of the evening though what it means for the London locals next year (if anything) I'm not sure. Newark was a win but only just and it was suggested the Conservatives threw the kitchen sink at the seat so how that portends for Jenrick's chances of holding Newark at a GE I'm not sure.

    Some very close finishes in the other contests.
    Newark was a 'headline' good result for the Tories but yeah, having had Kemi there on polling day it was much closer than i think they anticipated.
    Fulham - yes their vote held up from 2022, reform in fourth, Labour and LD votes slipping a bit. Probably means the ultra marginal Chelsea and Fulham becomes favourite for a London gain for Con in 2029, and if the inner western seats go similarly theyll feel more comfortable about holding Kensington council and gaining Westminster back and targetting Kensington and Bayswater at the GE
    If there’s a safe Conservative seat these days, it’s probably well-heeled, and with a substantial and successful ethnic minority population - like Hertsmere.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,527
    eek said:

    For reasons unknown Ed seems to want mini wind turbines in people’s gardens. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/04/miliband-plots-garden-windfarm-revolution/

    Has anyone ever seen ones that are small enough to fit in a garden and actually work

    Small solar panels might be more the ticket if they remove the need for installation. From earlier in the week:-

    Britons could soon install balcony solar panels in flats and rental homes
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/30/britons-could-soon-install-balcony-solar-panels-in-flats-and-rental-homes
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,060
    Interesting political symbolism from Steve Coogan

    https://x.com/bbcbreakfast/status/1941034588652163169

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,384
    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Indy wipes everyone out in the last of this weeks locals - he came second to Reform in the county council version of this seat in May so even they have been cannibalised

    Calverton (Gedling) Council By-Election Result:

    🙋 Ind: 66.3% (New)
    ➡️ RFM: 17.9% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 8.0% (-20.6)
    🌳 CON: 6.2% (-44.1)
    🌍 GRN: 1.1% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 0.4% (New)

    No Ind (-21.1) as previous.

    Independent GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.

    A 55% swing from Conservative to Independent which, if repeated at a GE, wouldn't be...

    Brave for the LD to stand for 8 votes as well which just goes to show there are no "no-go" areas for the party these days....

    Good call on Fulham Town by the way - in the end, probably the best Conservative result of the evening though what it means for the London locals next year (if anything) I'm not sure. Newark was a win but only just and it was suggested the Conservatives threw the kitchen sink at the seat so how that portends for Jenrick's chances of holding Newark at a GE I'm not sure.

    Some very close finishes in the other contests.
    Newark was a 'headline' good result for the Tories but yeah, having had Kemi there on polling day it was much closer than i think they anticipated.
    Fulham - yes their vote held up from 2022, reform in fourth, Labour and LD votes slipping a bit. Probably means the ultra marginal Chelsea and Fulham becomes favourite for a London gain for Con in 2029, and if the inner western seats go similarly theyll feel more comfortable about holding Kensington council and gaining Westminster back and targetting Kensington and Bayswater at the GE
    If there’s a safe Conservative seat these days, it’s probably well-heeled, and with a substantial and successful ethnic minority population - like Hertsmere.
    Hertsmere is on my 'last 10' list of 'Tory wipeout scenario' seats
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,708
    After 3 days with no access to questions (something about the website being accessed via a third party, which it wasn't), it's suddenly worked again - hooray! Any idea what went wrong?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,320

    Interesting political symbolism from Steve Coogan

    https://x.com/bbcbreakfast/status/1941034588652163169

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    But they are easier to set fire to...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,598

    After 3 days with no access to questions (something about the website being accessed via a third party, which it wasn't), it's suddenly worked again - hooray! Any idea what went wrong?

    Vanilla engaged in some "upgrades" that broke it. They said it would be fixed by July 4, and 'lo, it was fixed.

    I'm sorry about the issues.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,637
    Adam Carlson
    @admcrlsn

    Let’s go through — one by one — 16 of the most vulnerable Republican House incumbents for 2026 that voted for this abomination of a bill that cuts Medicaid & SNAP benefits for millions of Americans, while cutting taxes for the rich.

    Remember this day.

    Remember these names.

    https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1940876558128107523
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,637

    Interesting political symbolism from Steve Coogan

    https://x.com/bbcbreakfast/status/1941034588652163169

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    Rather unfortunate choice of metaphor.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,140
    Muscular!

    Keir Starmer reveals to @bbcnickrobinson that he considers himself to be a ‘hard bastard’

    https://x.com/jasongroves1/status/1941039583711445440?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,567

    Adam Carlson
    @admcrlsn

    Let’s go through — one by one — 16 of the most vulnerable Republican House incumbents for 2026 that voted for this abomination of a bill that cuts Medicaid & SNAP benefits for millions of Americans, while cutting taxes for the rich.

    Remember this day.

    Remember these names.

    https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1940876558128107523

    Trump now appears to have declared war on Democrats and Democrat supporters. Voting against MAGA is very unAmerican and likely treasonous and perhaps un-Christian. The baby Jesus would want America to simply suspend the vote from these devil-worshipping heathens.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608

    Interesting political symbolism from Steve Coogan

    https://x.com/bbcbreakfast/status/1941034588652163169

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    Why do you keep on doing this shitty thing of only part quoting tweets which robs them of their full context?

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    Actor Steve Coogan told #BBCBreakfast why he believes the co-operative movement still has a significant role to play in society
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,637
    rcs1000 said:

    "America has just dropped a big, beautiful, bunker-busting bomb on its own economy."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/03/trump-has-dropped-big-beautiful-bomb-on-americas-economy

    Please make sure that AEP articles are labeled as such, so I save myself the trouble of clicking, and then having to close the window.
    Sorry - my mistake.

    TL;DR : Trump's America just opted out of the high tech future of energy, EV and AI and a ton of other stuff and China are laughing their faces off.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,152

    Adam Carlson
    @admcrlsn

    Let’s go through — one by one — 16 of the most vulnerable Republican House incumbents for 2026 that voted for this abomination of a bill that cuts Medicaid & SNAP benefits for millions of Americans, while cutting taxes for the rich.

    Remember this day.

    Remember these names.

    https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1940876558128107523

    Why would Trump allow the elections to take place?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,708

    What John McDonnell does will be interesting.

    Yes. I'm a possible recruit for the new party (after 54 years in Labour, and still chair of my CLP), but the "launch" seems quarter-cocked.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,448

    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good morning, everyone. On my smartphone, on the 'main site'. Hopefully no longer subhuman.

    That's not a good piece of coordination for launching a new party, indeed. Mistake or deliberate sabotage?

    Good morning. The main site still isn't working for me.
    Morning all.

    Finally managed to get back on the site after more than a week without access.
    And me!
    Now we're finding out who failed the "are you human?" test. Interesting. They walk among us :smiley:
    There have been three separate things blocking PB for some.
    • Are you human? came from Cloudflare.
    • An expired certificate on not-Vanilla that might be cached in the cloud somewhere rather than on rcs1000's kit
    • Vanilla has been updating its infrastructure since 24/6 to today
    Forget Human… Are you 100% Ikarran?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,527
    edited July 4

    Interesting political symbolism from Steve Coogan

    https://x.com/bbcbreakfast/status/1941034588652163169

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    Why do you keep on doing this shitty thing of only part quoting tweets which robs them of their full context?

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    Actor Steve Coogan told #BBCBreakfast why he believes the co-operative movement still has a significant role to play in society
    Erm, I think williamglenn's point is that Coogan seemed unaware that his ‘bundle of sticks’ metaphor was previously used by Mussolini's fascists.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,448

    What John McDonnell does will be interesting.

    Yes. I'm a possible recruit for the new party (after 54 years in Labour, and still chair of my CLP), but the "launch" seems quarter-cocked.
    Interesting terminology, there, from Dr “Swiss” Palmer.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,384

    What John McDonnell does will be interesting.

    Yes. I'm a possible recruit for the new party (after 54 years in Labour, and still chair of my CLP), but the "launch" seems quarter-cocked.
    I suspect Sultana was bounced by imminent threat of expulsion and Jezza wasn't ready.
    My prediction is they cobble together a 'next steps' presser for Monday
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,717
    Does Sultana/Corybn's nascent party have a name yet ?

    Have a few thoughts - if they can get a big trade union then they might possibly co-label with them ?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,502

    Interesting political symbolism from Steve Coogan

    https://x.com/bbcbreakfast/status/1941034588652163169

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    Why do you keep on doing this shitty thing of only part quoting tweets which robs them of their full context?

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    Actor Steve Coogan told #BBCBreakfast why he believes the co-operative movement still has a significant role to play in society
    That’s what Coogan said, that’s the metaphor he used, there is nothing remotely wrong with the way @williamglenn quoted him
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,502
    Pulpstar said:

    Does Sultana/Corybn's nascent party have a name yet ?

    Have a few thoughts - if they can get a big trade union then they might possibly co-label with them ?

    I naturally presumed it was going to be Jezzbollah?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,717
    The Democrats seem barely to be mentioning the debt ceiling rise this bill will slap on, presumably their "fix" when they get back in will be to up rack up even more debt to sort the Medicaid stuff they think needs sorting.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,402
    Pulpstar said:

    Does Sultana/Corybn's nascent party have a name yet ?

    Have a few thoughts - if they can get a big trade union then they might possibly co-label with them ?

    If Diane Abbot joins then may I humbly suggest a name that reflects the two joint leaders, “Currant Affairs”.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,320

    What John McDonnell does will be interesting.

    Yes. I'm a possible recruit for the new party (after 54 years in Labour, and still chair of my CLP), but the "launch" seems quarter-cocked.
    I suspect Sultana was bounced by imminent threat of expulsion and Jezza wasn't ready.
    My prediction is they cobble together a 'next steps' presser for Monday
    WHy does Sultana think there's a need for a new fruitcake party?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,448

    Interesting political symbolism from Steve Coogan

    https://x.com/bbcbreakfast/status/1941034588652163169

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    Why do you keep on doing this shitty thing of only part quoting tweets which robs them of their full context?

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    Actor Steve Coogan told #BBCBreakfast why he believes the co-operative movement still has a significant role to play in society
    Erm, I think williamglenn's point is that Coogan seemed unaware that his ‘bundle of sticks’ metaphor was previously used by Mussolini's fascists.
    To be fair, the slap head journo nicked it, entire, from the symbology of Ancient Rome. It’s used in quite a lot of places, pre-Fascism.
  • Interesting political symbolism from Steve Coogan

    https://x.com/bbcbreakfast/status/1941034588652163169

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    Why do you keep on doing this shitty thing of only part quoting tweets which robs them of their full context?

    'You can break one stick, but if you get a bundle of sticks tied together you can't break them'

    Actor Steve Coogan told #BBCBreakfast why he believes the co-operative movement still has a significant role to play in society
    Valid general complaint, wrong instance
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,152
    @LBC

    A Russian oil tycoon has reportedly died after falling from a window in his home in Moscow.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,204
    boulay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does Sultana/Corybn's nascent party have a name yet ?

    Have a few thoughts - if they can get a big trade union then they might possibly co-label with them ?

    If Diane Abbot joins then may I humbly suggest a name that reflects the two joint leaders, “Currant Affairs”.
    Is there such a thing as a dried gooseberry?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,384
    edited July 4

    What John McDonnell does will be interesting.

    Yes. I'm a possible recruit for the new party (after 54 years in Labour, and still chair of my CLP), but the "launch" seems quarter-cocked.
    I suspect Sultana was bounced by imminent threat of expulsion and Jezza wasn't ready.
    My prediction is they cobble together a 'next steps' presser for Monday
    WHy does Sultana think there's a need for a new fruitcake party?
    The Tealoafs is the official name if Jezza doesn't get off his boney old arse and front a statement soon

    Edit - although maybe not as I'm actually rather partial to a slice of my homemade tea loaf
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,112
    boulay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does Sultana/Corybn's nascent party have a name yet ?

    Have a few thoughts - if they can get a big trade union then they might possibly co-label with them ?

    If Diane Abbot joins then may I humbly suggest a name that reflects the two joint leaders, “Currant Affairs”.
    They need something that is anti-some-wars, pro-Russia, and anti-Zionist whilst hiding their anti-Semitism...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,526
    boulay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does Sultana/Corybn's nascent party have a name yet ?

    Have a few thoughts - if they can get a big trade union then they might possibly co-label with them ?

    If Diane Abbot joins then may I humbly suggest a name that reflects the two joint leaders, “Currant Affairs”.
    Fruit and Nut would cover it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,526
    Looks like while we have FPTP Corbyn's preference is to stay Independent rather than start a new party so not sure Sultana's effort will get off the ground
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,526
    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Indy wipes everyone out in the last of this weeks locals - he came second to Reform in the county council version of this seat in May so even they have been cannibalised

    Calverton (Gedling) Council By-Election Result:

    🙋 Ind: 66.3% (New)
    ➡️ RFM: 17.9% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 8.0% (-20.6)
    🌳 CON: 6.2% (-44.1)
    🌍 GRN: 1.1% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 0.4% (New)

    No Ind (-21.1) as previous.

    Independent GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023.

    A 55% swing from Conservative to Independent which, if repeated at a GE, wouldn't be...

    Brave for the LD to stand for 8 votes as well which just goes to show there are no "no-go" areas for the party these days....

    Good call on Fulham Town by the way - in the end, probably the best Conservative result of the evening though what it means for the London locals next year (if anything) I'm not sure. Newark was a win but only just and it was suggested the Conservatives threw the kitchen sink at the seat so how that portends for Jenrick's chances of holding Newark at a GE I'm not sure.

    Some very close finishes in the other contests.
    Newark was a 'headline' good result for the Tories but yeah, having had Kemi there on polling day it was much closer than i think they anticipated.
    Fulham - yes their vote held up from 2022, reform in fourth, Labour and LD votes slipping a bit. Probably means the ultra marginal Chelsea and Fulham becomes favourite for a London gain for Con in 2029, and if the inner western seats go similarly theyll feel more comfortable about holding Kensington council and gaining Westminster back and targetting Kensington and Bayswater at the GE
    If there’s a safe Conservative seat these days, it’s probably well-heeled, and with a substantial and successful ethnic minority population - like Hertsmere.
    And Epping Forest
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,526
    glw said:

    "America has just dropped a big, beautiful, bunker-busting bomb on its own economy."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/03/trump-has-dropped-big-beautiful-bomb-on-americas-economy

    One of the things that has surprised me about the last nearly 6 months of Trump is how unheated things have been between the US and China. China has remained relatively restrained and diplomatic. I suspect that they are willing to take some pain and to allow MAGA/GOP to get on with trashing America's soft-power and future economy.
    The tariff on most Chinese goods to the US remains at 30% and they have in turn imposed higher tariffs on US imports
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,526
    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Young Europeans losing faith in democracy, poll finds

    Support is lowest in France, Spain and Poland, while 21% back authoritarian rule under certain circumstances

    Only half of young people in France and Spain believe that democracy is the best form of government, with support even lower among their Polish counterparts, a study has found.

    A majority from Europe’s generation Z – 57% – prefer democracy to any other form of government. Rates of support varied significantly, however, reaching just 48% in Poland and only about 51-52% in Spain and France, with Germany highest at 71%.

    More than one in five – 21% – would favour authoritarian rule under certain, unspecified circumstances. This was highest in Italy at 24% and lowest in Germany with 15%. In France, Spain and Poland the figure was 23%.

    Nearly one in 10 across the nations said they did not care whether their government was democratic or not, while another 14% did not know or did not answer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jul/04/young-europeans-losing-faith-in-democracy-poll-finds

    The impact of the nihilism and cynicism of the media/industrial complex is clear here. In a way it is a good thing, since it forces the proponents of democracy to make a positive case. However, when we still see lazy nonsense- "Reform will storm the next election"- leading the news agenda, then it should remind us that there are still plenty of headwinds.

    Reform will not be able to come close to being the next government and may well even disappear before the next general election even happens. Lib Dems learned the lesson of the Alliance- you have to win seats, not votes. Reform and the Popular People´s front of Judea (Sultana Branch) have yet to show that they understand this. The county elections for Reform may well be like the last European Parliament elections for UKIP- a flash in the pan, but of remarkably little long term significance.

    In the meantime, the case for a responsive, inclusive and open democracy still needs to be made and electoral reform is only part of the package.
    While like you I want Reform to disappear, and I voted Lib Dem in the Locals partially because they were the best placed candidate to defeat Reform, the idea "Reform will not be able to come close to being the next government" is entirely false I'm afraid.

    Will they form the next government? Probably not.
    Will they come close to it? Probably not.

    Is it possible they are able to? Absolutely.

    The threat is real and needs to be defeated. Don't count your chickens. Anyone standing 326+ candidates is able to form the next government if they get enough people to vote for them.
    One would think, given the events of the past 20 years, that “It can’t happen because I don’t want it to happen” had been tested to destruction.

    If the Conservatives poll under 20%, they will go the same way as the Liberals in 1924, and Reform will be the main party on the right.

    I detect no great loyalty to the Conservatives that would prevent this from happening.
    And all that led to was more Conservative governments, there were fewer Labour governments in the 20th century than Liberal or Whig governments in the 19th century as many middle class ex Liberal voters would refuse to vote for Labour socialism.

    I suspect if we kept FPTP and Reform overtook the Conservatives that would mean more Labour or Labour and Liberal Democrat governments in the 21st century as fewer centrist swing voters would vote Reform as have been willing to vote Conservative
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,121
    carnforth said:

    Taz said:

    The home office doesn’t know how many foreign workers leave when their visas expire

    What a fucking clown show

    https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/1941033925284929840?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Well, unlike most countries, we don't do exit checks (other than on Eurostar and ferries). So they can only know indirectly - by survey and asking the airlines.

    I suspect analysing the airline data well is difficult.
    Well we should be doing exit checks. Who on earth decided not to.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,018
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Trump's poll numbers don't tank after passing the Big Beautiful Bill, then there's Starmer's answer to the nation's economic woes - take the entitlement to the NHS away from a big chunk of voters.

    Mostly in areas voting Labour.

    Plus tax breaks for the rich. All funded on the never never. But don't worry, Andrew Bailey soon to be replaced by a party hack.

    You know it makes sense.
    Many people will accept pain, if they think worse pain is being inflicted on those that they despise.
    Depressingly true.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,448
    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Taz said:

    The home office doesn’t know how many foreign workers leave when their visas expire

    What a fucking clown show

    https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/1941033925284929840?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Well, unlike most countries, we don't do exit checks (other than on Eurostar and ferries). So they can only know indirectly - by survey and asking the airlines.

    I suspect analysing the airline data well is difficult.
    Well we should be doing exit checks. Who on earth decided not to.
    The airline data - on who has boarded the planes - is used for security purposes.

    The airlines make damn sure they check - they are liable for flying people back (and fines), who don't have the proper papers to enter at the other end. Same for the ferries.

    There is a reason that people spend 4 figures on a ride on a RIB across the channel.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,112
    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Taz said:

    The home office doesn’t know how many foreign workers leave when their visas expire

    What a fucking clown show

    https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/1941033925284929840?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Well, unlike most countries, we don't do exit checks (other than on Eurostar and ferries). So they can only know indirectly - by survey and asking the airlines.

    I suspect analysing the airline data well is difficult.
    Well we should be doing exit checks. Who on earth decided not to.
    They were removed in 1994 and 1998.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/exit-checks-on-passengers-leaving-the-uk/exit-checks-fact-sheet

    The above links said the coalition were due to put them back into place, but I guess they never did ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,717
    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Taz said:

    The home office doesn’t know how many foreign workers leave when their visas expire

    What a fucking clown show

    https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/1941033925284929840?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Well, unlike most countries, we don't do exit checks (other than on Eurostar and ferries). So they can only know indirectly - by survey and asking the airlines.

    I suspect analysing the airline data well is difficult.
    Well we should be doing exit checks. Who on earth decided not to.
    Back in 2003 I got a small fine for overstaying my 30 day Thailand visa by a day. So obviously exit checks aren't beyond the wit of man.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,121
    edited July 4
    England are 9/1 to win the test match despite India's large score. Amazing really.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.245074690
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,950
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Taz said:

    The home office doesn’t know how many foreign workers leave when their visas expire

    What a fucking clown show

    https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/1941033925284929840?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Well, unlike most countries, we don't do exit checks (other than on Eurostar and ferries). So they can only know indirectly - by survey and asking the airlines.

    I suspect analysing the airline data well is difficult.
    Well we should be doing exit checks. Who on earth decided not to.
    Back in 2003 I got a small fine for overstaying my 30 day Thailand visa by a day. So obviously exit checks aren't beyond the wit of man.
    Presumably based on the datestamp in your passport?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,121
    edited July 4
    Rubbish start from England. Edgbaston starting to wonder how much money they'll lose from returned tickets.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,480
    I must be the only one thinking Steve Coogan is becoming Alan Partridge.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,526
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Taz said:

    The home office doesn’t know how many foreign workers leave when their visas expire

    What a fucking clown show

    https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/1941033925284929840?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Well, unlike most countries, we don't do exit checks (other than on Eurostar and ferries). So they can only know indirectly - by survey and asking the airlines.

    I suspect analysing the airline data well is difficult.
    Well we should be doing exit checks. Who on earth decided not to.
    Back in 2003 I got a small fine for overstaying my 30 day Thailand visa by a day. So obviously exit checks aren't beyond the wit of man.
    Most countries, other than the UK and US, simply make you go through passport control on the way out of the country, as well as on the way in.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,384
    Lol England
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,144
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Taz said:

    The home office doesn’t know how many foreign workers leave when their visas expire

    What a fucking clown show

    https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/1941033925284929840?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Well, unlike most countries, we don't do exit checks (other than on Eurostar and ferries). So they can only know indirectly - by survey and asking the airlines.

    I suspect analysing the airline data well is difficult.
    Well we should be doing exit checks. Who on earth decided not to.
    Back in 2003 I got a small fine for overstaying my 30 day Thailand visa by a day. So obviously exit checks aren't beyond the wit of man.
    We did, too. Exit checks there are thorough. Took quite a long time to process, and cut the time we could spend in the free lounge.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,934
    kle4 said:

    If Trump's poll numbers don't tank after passing the Big Beautiful Bill, then there's Starmer's answer to the nation's economic woes - take the entitlement to the NHS away from a big chunk of voters.

    Mostly in areas voting Labour.

    No no, the poor voted for Trump to take things off the illegals. Its their welfare being taken away. [checks notes] what, its MINE that has been taken? Hang on, I'm not an illegal?

    Morons, the lot of them. Similarly there is depression setting in amongst the Tesla Elon loyalists on Twitter who have realised that Trump has screwed electrification and is now coming after them. Comments like "we got played" being posted. Well duh - we saw this a mile away.
    There are people whose core talent is looking, sounding and behaving like a Leader. Some call it Charisma.

    They can get people to follow them anywhere, including off the cliff edge. It's a benefit to charismatic individuals, but often a disaster for everyone else.
    Some don't like the idea Trump is both charismatic and a leader, but you don't just luck in to such influence over so many people.
    You can not like the idea, while accepting its reality.
    But it's certainly true that those who are immune to his undeniable appeal find it very hard to understand how anyone can continue, against all rational evidence, to fall for it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,637
    Pulpstar said:

    The Democrats seem barely to be mentioning the debt ceiling rise this bill will slap on, presumably their "fix" when they get back in will be to up rack up even more debt to sort the Medicaid stuff they think needs sorting.

    Voters don't care about the debt levels until it effects them directly via the bond markets blowing up.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,144
    Andy_JS said:

    Rubbish start from England. Edgbaston starting to wonder how much money they'll lose from returned tickets.

    Chances of rain are low, too. More likely at night, which is no use at all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,934
    Taz said:

    The home office doesn’t know how many foreign workers leave when their visas expire

    What a fucking clown show

    https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/1941033925284929840?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Absolutely.
    Introduced by guess who ?

    ..The Public Accounts Committee (PAC), which scrutinises government spending, said the Home Office had failed to analyse exit checks since the skilled worker visa route was introduced in 2020 under the Conservatives.
    Some 1.18 million people have applied to come to the UK via this route between its launch in December 2020 and the end of 2024.
    The Home Office said it had inherited a "broken immigration system" and that it was working to "repair the public's trust"...

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,934

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq8ze23vx4po

    Sir Keir Starmer has said he "understands what anchors" US President Donald Trump, having built a relationship on shared family values.

    Despite "different political backgrounds" the prime minister said he found common ground with Trump, and that their "good personal relationship" helped land a vital US tariff deal.

    That's a better grade of insincere but necessary flattery than most.

    We all know the only thing which anchors Trump, but it would be impolitic for our PM to say so.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    Yesterday when I posted England were going to win this match by an innings I meant England were going to lose by an innings, bloody autocorrect.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,144
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    If Trump's poll numbers don't tank after passing the Big Beautiful Bill, then there's Starmer's answer to the nation's economic woes - take the entitlement to the NHS away from a big chunk of voters.

    Mostly in areas voting Labour.

    No no, the poor voted for Trump to take things off the illegals. Its their welfare being taken away. [checks notes] what, its MINE that has been taken? Hang on, I'm not an illegal?

    Morons, the lot of them. Similarly there is depression setting in amongst the Tesla Elon loyalists on Twitter who have realised that Trump has screwed electrification and is now coming after them. Comments like "we got played" being posted. Well duh - we saw this a mile away.
    There are people whose core talent is looking, sounding and behaving like a Leader. Some call it Charisma.

    They can get people to follow them anywhere, including off the cliff edge. It's a benefit to charismatic individuals, but often a disaster for everyone else.
    Some don't like the idea Trump is both charismatic and a leader, but you don't just luck in to such influence over so many people.
    You can not like the idea, while accepting its reality.
    But it's certainly true that those who are immune to his undeniable appeal find it very hard to understand how anyone can continue, against all rational evidence, to fall for it.
    Correct me if I'm wrong but AIUI the "Big Beautiful Bill" brings in immediate tax cuts for the rich, but the cuts to Medicaid etc don't take place until AFTER the 2026 elections.
    Howls of rage for the 2028 ones of course but suggests Trump isn't bothered about them.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,837
    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Taz said:

    The home office doesn’t know how many foreign workers leave when their visas expire

    What a fucking clown show

    https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/1941033925284929840?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Well, unlike most countries, we don't do exit checks (other than on Eurostar and ferries). So they can only know indirectly - by survey and asking the airlines.

    I suspect analysing the airline data well is difficult.
    Well we should be doing exit checks. Who on earth decided not to.
    Presumably the argument is that we don't care too much if people leave the country
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,934
    glw said:

    "America has just dropped a big, beautiful, bunker-busting bomb on its own economy."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/03/trump-has-dropped-big-beautiful-bomb-on-americas-economy

    One of the things that has surprised me about the last nearly 6 months of Trump is how unheated things have been between the US and China. China has remained relatively restrained and diplomatic. I suspect that they are willing to take some pain and to allow MAGA/GOP to get on with trashing America's soft-power and future economy.
    They're not taking that much pain, though, are they ?

    There's occasional pushback over stuff that matters to them (eg over chip technology sanctions) - and Trump has usually accommodated them when there is.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,912
    rcs1000 said:

    After 3 days with no access to questions (something about the website being accessed via a third party, which it wasn't), it's suddenly worked again - hooray! Any idea what went wrong?

    Vanilla engaged in some "upgrades" that broke it. They said it would be fixed by July 4, and 'lo, it was fixed.

    I'm sorry about the issues.
    An example of improving system worse.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,144

    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Taz said:

    The home office doesn’t know how many foreign workers leave when their visas expire

    What a fucking clown show

    https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/1941033925284929840?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    Well, unlike most countries, we don't do exit checks (other than on Eurostar and ferries). So they can only know indirectly - by survey and asking the airlines.

    I suspect analysing the airline data well is difficult.
    Well we should be doing exit checks. Who on earth decided not to.
    Presumably the argument is that we don't care too much if people leave the country
    And it saved money on staff!
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