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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 20

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited April 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 2014 Populus monthly aggregate – sample size 16k

Today sees the second of what looks set to be a great resource right through until the general election – the Populus/FT monthly aggregate based on all the firm’s twice-weekly surveys with an overall sample size of more more than 16k.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    First!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Labour only down by 0.5%. Not a lot, unless you multiply by 12.

    Not a likely progression, but illustrates that only tiny changes are required over a year.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    GeoffM said:
    Yes. If it were real, the picture would have been much more flattering, and Salmon would have been wearing a crown.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    LD2010 split: LAB: 28, LD: 41

    UKIP shares increase from all parties

    Cons: 15
    LAB: 9
    LD: 10
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    April fool part 3:

    The Sun reports that the Queen will be fraccing at Buckingham Palace
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited April 2014
    Labour's PPB is good and they have popular policies - www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzxXm7tFZBk

    Do Labour types on here know why they are not further ahead in the polls?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    rcs1000 said:
    This one has already been proposed by Better Together in one of their Project Fear papers. Andy Burnham said it for real. Facts stranger than fiction if they are from Better Together
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Yes. If it were real, the picture would have been much more flattering, and Salmon would have been wearing a crown.
    lol
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    April Fools part 4:

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 35m

    EXCL: David Cameron to create new government department to fight for working class people: http://bit.ly/1i9qdTQ

    LOL

    ;)
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    edited April 2014
    Right-wing think-tank says we should be charged £10pcm to join NHS. Labour says those living on a diet of raw vegetables should be exempt. Megapoll of Peebies (mainly those called Sean) reveals that 71% of voters think that socialists should be boiled to death slowly.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Mick_Pork said:

    April Fools part 4:

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 35m

    EXCL: David Cameron to create new government department to fight for working class people: http://bit.ly/1i9qdTQ

    LOL

    ;)


    April Fool pt 5

    Mick Snorkers makes a comment that isn't sneering, derogatory or patronising

    Chortles
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    RE: YouGov Trackers: Government Approval

    The last week or so is the first time that Net Government Approval has been regularly under -20 since December 2010.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    Financier said:

    RE: YouGov Trackers: Government Approval

    The last week or so is the first time that Net Government Approval has been regularly under -20 since December 2010.

    \Do you mean better than or worse than?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mick_Pork said:

    April Fools part 4:

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 35m

    EXCL: David Cameron to create new government department to fight for working class people: http://bit.ly/1i9qdTQ

    LOL

    ;)


    April Fool pt 5

    Mick Snorkers makes a comment that isn't sneering, derogatory or patronising

    Chortles
    If you could whine a bit louder that would make it even more amusing.

    :)
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    RobD said:

    Financier said:

    RE: YouGov Trackers: Government Approval

    The last week or so is the first time that Net Government Approval has been regularly under -20 since December 2010.

    \Do you mean better than or worse than?
    Previously NET Approval was always into the -20s and -30s; so worse previously and better now.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    I suspect that some natural Tories who have been flirting with UKIP, are worried that a vote for UKIP could lead to Labour winning a majority. Therefore the polling for UKIP and Tories fluctuates by a similar amount. Tom Bradby the ITV politics editor said that polling showed that UKIP had taken 1.4 million of the Tories 2010 votes, whereas UKIP only attracted 400k votes from Labour. If this is the case, it will be interesting whether UKIP actually receive these votes in May 2015. I think they probably will and it could effect the outcome in dozens of seats around the country.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I think the UKIP will do well in safe blue seats, but much less well in marginal seats. In part this will be to do with the demographics of marginal seats, in part tactical voting and in part Traditional tories on holiday wanting to apply pressure on the Conservatives without risking Milliband.
    hucks67 said:

    I suspect that some natural Tories who have been flirting with UKIP, are worried that a vote for UKIP could lead to Labour winning a majority. Therefore the polling for UKIP and Tories fluctuates by a similar amount. Tom Bradby the ITV politics editor said that polling showed that UKIP had taken 1.4 million of the Tories 2010 votes, whereas UKIP only attracted 400k votes from Labour. If this is the case, it will be interesting whether UKIP actually receive these votes in May 2015. I think they probably will and it could effect the outcome in dozens of seats around the country.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    12.2% is still just a touch larger than the kipper 3.1% they got for 2010 and still nowhere near sub 5% levels Cammie needs to get them for 2015.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758

    I think the UKIP will do well in safe blue seats, but much less well in marginal seats. In part this will be to do with the demographics of marginal seats, in part tactical voting and in part Traditional tories on holiday wanting to apply pressure on the Conservatives without risking Milliband.

    hucks67 said:

    I suspect that some natural Tories who have been flirting with UKIP, are worried that a vote for UKIP could lead to Labour winning a majority. Therefore the polling for UKIP and Tories fluctuates by a similar amount. Tom Bradby the ITV politics editor said that polling showed that UKIP had taken 1.4 million of the Tories 2010 votes, whereas UKIP only attracted 400k votes from Labour. If this is the case, it will be interesting whether UKIP actually receive these votes in May 2015. I think they probably will and it could effect the outcome in dozens of seats around the country.


    I don't think it will work like that. People that have gone to UKIP appear to be sticking with them. There has been polling details on here, showing that UKIP supporters do not care whether Labour are elected, as a result of them voting UKIP.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited April 2014

    Expanding on my previous Scotland thought, for the enjoyment of Stuart Dickson et al, I am increasingly of the opinion that Yes will get over the line, in a very tight race.
    In terms of Tories in Scotland 2015, I expect them to get three seats - Dumfriesshire, Roxborough etc and probably Dumfries and Galloway (the blue borders solution). If the Tories want a majority they would need something like 6 to have an equivalently strong England and Wales showing that gets them over the line, so another three would have to come from.... Aberdeensire West, Argyll and Bute, Banff and Buchan, Fife NE and Edinburgh SW. I can't see any other Scottish seat there is even a dreamers hope in (and three of those five are pushing it to the limits of optimism).
    Actually D and G is a bit hopeful unless they can get to 18 or 19% in Scotland......
    2 or 3 then on current polling.

    DCT is a dead cert (thank goodness the Lib Dems shot down the new boundaries!)
    Roxburgh should be odds-on FAV (value there at Ladbrokes)
    No prices yet for Dumfries & Galloway, but CON EVS reasonable?

    Thereafter:
    Aberdeenshire West -> Shadsy doesn't give CON much hope, but personally I'm not so sure
    Argyll & Bute: SNP FAV, then Lab, then LD, then CON (so, little hope)
    Banff & Buchuan: fascinating seat this time; a big test for the "First Time Incumbency" theorists/fans
    Fife NE: CON still too long at 10/1 (Lad) IMHO; were originally at a daft 16/1
    Edinburgh SW: 3-way marginal; only local connoisseurs should get involved in betting
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good Morning.
    Beware the April Fools before midday and the even bigger ones after that hour.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,549
    Looking at the Populus 2010 change data for March, there was an improvement in 2010C-C and a lessening of transfers to UKIP from C,L&LD. No other material movements since Feb.
  • Could someone please advise what the polls are saying about Scotland right now? We have the McARSE at the 60/40 NO/YES end of the spectrum right through to the MalcolmG 0/100 NO/YES at the other. What actually is the current state of the Scottish electorate on the question?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Patrick said:

    Could someone please advise what the polls are saying about Scotland right now? We have the McARSE at the 60/40 NO/YES end of the spectrum right through to the MalcolmG 0/100 NO/YES at the other. What actually is the current state of the Scottish electorate on the question?

    The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :

    Sep 2013 - 20.2%
    Sep 2013 - 20.0%
    Sep 2013 - 18.4%
    Oct 2013 - 17.9%
    Oct 2013 - 17.5%
    Oct 2013 - 17.4%
    Nov 2013 - 17.5%
    Dec 2013 - 17.1%
    Dec 2013 - 16.3%
    Dec 2013 - 16.2%
    Dec 2013 - 15.8%
    Jan 2014 - 14.2%
    Jan 2014 - 14.8%
    Feb 2014 - 14.8%
    Feb 2014 - 14.7%
    Feb 2014 - 15.1%
    Feb 2014 - 13.6%
    Feb 2014 - 14.0%
    Mar 2014 - 14.0%
    Mar 2014 - 14.3%
    Mar 2014 - 14.3%
    Mar 2014 - 13.6%
    Mar 2014 - 12.9%
    Mar 2014 - 13.0%
    Mar 2014 - 12.5%
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Morning all and as we reflect on polls on April Fools Day, only a fool forgets that polls are irrelevant if voters don't actually go out to vote.

    We are now only 5 1/2 months from Scotland fracking the UK when as I have always expected the YES win because London didn't think it could really be possible in the same way the experts assured Tony Blair no single party could ever win a Holyrood election.

    I am impressed at the ground war being fought by the YES campaign though I know hundreds of Scots Tories, particularly CFS members are campaigning for Better Together. Rest assured it will be the Scottish Labour party which delivers independence by failing to secure its own traditional voters for Better Together.

    As for GE2015, I expect the rather dull but very nice chap David Mundell to hold D,C,T by a country mile. If Russell Brown fights on in Dumfries and Galloway for Labour, I am far from convinced the Tories will recapture what should be a safe seat against everyone except the SNP.

    In 2010 the Tories halved Sir Robert Smith's majority in Aberdeenshire W and if there is no LibDem recovery in Scotland, I expect the new young Tory candidate to take the seat. Argyll is a basket case of a seat with areas which identify strongly with all 4 parties and it is a genuine 4-way marginal. Edinburgh SW without Alistair Darling (who I expect to announce his retirement on 19th September) will be closer than the numbers suggest and Edinburgh West with a depressed LibDem could also be a 4-way dogfight. NE Fife without Sir Ming will also be a 3 or 4-way marginal.

    Labour should hold on in Stirling, though I would expect the Tories to be 2nd. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories give the SNP a scare in one seat. Banff last time was incredibly close but the new SNP MP is well liked so she should hold on. If the Scots Tories hold 1 seat and win 2 they will have done incredibly well.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    More evidence that the Red Liberals and the Purple Tories will decide this election.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    I forgot to comment on Michael Moore's seat. The answer is I don't know. It will be a rerun of 2010. I was surprised, genuinely surprised how little inroad John Lamont made in 2010 when he had trounced the LibDems in the equivalent Holyrood seat. He does have a high profile as does Michael Moore. If the Scottish LibDems don't stage some sort of recovery then John Lamont might just scrape through but I expect Michael Moore to go down fighting, if indeed he does lose. Not sure whether his period as Sec of St will work for or against him.
  • Stuart

    Looks like YES is reeling them in but not nearly fast enough to be ahead in 6 months' time.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :

    Sep 2013 - 20.2%
    ...
    Mar 2014 - 12.5%

    If one simply extrapolates the trend to provide a first guess for September it predicts a winning margin of 4.8% for No: Yes 47.6% - No 52.4%

    Too close for comfort.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    I forgot to comment on Michael Moore's seat. The answer is I don't know. It will be a rerun of 2010. I was surprised, genuinely surprised how little inroad John Lamont made in 2010 when he had trounced the LibDems in the equivalent Holyrood seat. He does have a high profile as does Michael Moore. If the Scottish LibDems don't stage some sort of recovery then John Lamont might just scrape through but I expect Michael Moore to go down fighting, if indeed he does lose. Not sure whether his period as Sec of St will work for or against him.

    Mr Moore was certainly well enough regarded before the LDs went into coalition. As a S of S he did blot his copybook locally with unnecessary remarks about Flodden (which may have had an impact amongst the Borderers) but he does seem to have done a good job in helping sort out the Edinburgh Agreement to everyone's benefit and with minimum acrimony compared to what might have happened. And his resignation/sacking does distance him from recriminations after a Yes or a borderline No.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Patrick said:

    Could someone please advise what the polls are saying about Scotland right now? We have the McARSE at the 60/40 NO/YES end of the spectrum right through to the MalcolmG 0/100 NO/YES at the other. What actually is the current state of the Scottish electorate on the question?

    If we continue Stuart Dickson's trend we will get NO with a ~ 5% lead. That'd be my guess on polling day. I've not taken those vote share bets offered by the Nats for a reason.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Patrick said:

    Stuart

    Looks like YES is reeling them in but not nearly fast enough to be ahead in 6 months' time.

    I think Salmond will probably be able to switch a few percentage points in his favour during the last couple of weeks. So No needs to be ahead by more than about 5 points at that stage.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    Labour VI supporting Labour on: Problems facing the Country:

    Asylum & ImmIgration: 43%
    Europe: 57%
    Law &Order: 63%
    Economy: 68%
    Tax: 69%
    Welfare Benefits: 71%
  • WelshBertieWelshBertie Posts: 124
    Thank god for that plus 7 outlier from Yougov for the PB Kinnocks or that Yougov weekly average would look very uncomfortable. I didn't catch the news last night and have only seen a brief bit about this 'full employment' speech from Osborne. Will be interesting to see if it gains any traction out in the real world. If something like that did then the Eds would be a slice of bread, grilled on both sides.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    AndyJS said:
    I'm reading it as we speak: and it's a good book, if a little more esoteric than some of his other work.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    I'm reading it as we speak: and it's a good book, if a little more esoteric than some of his other work.
    Does that Indy article actually say anything? Can't find it if so.
  • Can anyone explain the significance of the name "Lana Gocaireachd" in the Grauniad's April Fool? Presumably it's some sort of comical anagram?

    The first name is "anal" backwards but that's as far as I'm getting. I've tried the obvious stuff like "hoots mon" and "donald where's ma troosers", but no joy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Where can I find vote share markets for the ScIndy referendum?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Commenting only on Populus:

    1) The gap between the Conservatives and Labour has nearly halved in the last month. And with UKIP on over 12%, the Conservatives could overtake Labour by squeezing UKIP without Labour losing any support.

    2) I very much doubt that the Lib Dems in practice will tally under 10% in the general election. I expect that they will get some of their support back from Labour. That, however, is not necessarily good news for the Conservatives if that hypothetical increase in support is tactical, as seems most likely.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Can anyone explain the significance of the name "Lana Gocaireachd" in the Grauniad's April Fool? Presumably it's some sort of comical anagram?

    According to the Huff - 'Lana Gocaireachd'. Là na Gocaireachd, is Gaelic for April Fools' Day.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    I'm reading it as we speak: and it's a good book, if a little more esoteric than some of his other work.
    Does that Indy article actually say anything? Can't find it if so.
    The article totally fails to explain what HFT does, and why it is so pernicious, which is at the very least a serious journalistic failing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    I'm reading it as we speak: and it's a good book, if a little more esoteric than some of his other work.
    Does that Indy article actually say anything? Can't find it if so.
    The article totally fails to explain what HFT does, and why it is so pernicious, which is at the very least a serious journalistic failing.
    I suppose like everyone else for journalists there is a scramble to "address" the book which presumably doesn't leave time for substance.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    rcs1000 said:
    How do you know it's not a serious (by their standards) No Campaign scare story, like deporting the pandas and bombing the airfields? After all, a Labour frontbencher said so , as WoS points out ...

    http://archive.is/d3bVQ

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    ----------------------Betting post -----------------------

    One may wish to have a look at the odds being offered on the 2nd EU Debate Yougov poll debate 'winner' by both Paddy and Ladbrokes...

    -------------------------------------------------------

    DYOR etc.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Expanding on my previous Scotland thought, for the enjoyment of Stuart Dickson et al, I am increasingly of the opinion that Yes will get over the line, in a very tight race.
    In terms of Tories in Scotland 2015, I expect them to get three seats - Dumfriesshire, Roxborough etc and probably Dumfries and Galloway (the blue borders solution). If the Tories want a majority they would need something like 6 to have an equivalently strong England and Wales showing that gets them over the line, so another three would have to come from.... Aberdeensire West, Argyll and Bute, Banff and Buchan, Fife NE and Edinburgh SW. I can't see any other Scottish seat there is even a dreamers hope in (and three of those five are pushing it to the limits of optimism).
    Actually D and G is a bit hopeful unless they can get to 18 or 19% in Scotland......
    2 or 3 then on current polling.

    DCT is a dead cert (thank goodness the Lib Dems shot down the new boundaries!)
    Roxburgh should be odds-on FAV (value there at Ladbrokes)
    No prices yet for Dumfries & Galloway, but CON EVS reasonable?

    Thereafter:
    Aberdeenshire West -> Shadsy doesn't give CON much hope, but personally I'm not so sure
    Argyll & Bute: SNP FAV, then Lab, then LD, then CON (so, little hope)
    Banff & Buchuan: fascinating seat this time; a big test for the "First Time Incumbency" theorists/fans
    Fife NE: CON still too long at 10/1 (Lad) IMHO; were originally at a daft 16/1
    Edinburgh SW: 3-way marginal; only local connoisseurs should get involved in betting
    Can't disagree with much of that, Tories slightly longer in D and G perhaps (3/1?) as it stands
    Aberdeen West, I don't fancy it either...
    Argyll and Bute statistically is the easiest shot, but it's a four way, so little hope
    I've got a slight buzz about Edinburgh SW with the badger going, but I think they might have lost ground too fast to the SNP there to capitalise....
    The blue borders solution looks best case on current polling.

    Another Scots seat worth looking at is Gordon, I think Bruce is stepping down? In which case you have Lab and SNP neck and neck needing a 7% swing. Tories a further two back rueing a seat that in 92 they surely would have taken in this situation.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited April 2014
    I presume this is an April Fool's joke.
    Of course, the real joke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids are long past replica footie shirts!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited April 2014

    I presume this is an April Fool's joke.
    Of course, the real job ke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids ate long past replica footie shirts!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html

    When did replica tops suddenly become ~ £90 ? My brother bought me one of the blue away ones a couple of years back. I seem to remember them being £45-50 quid at the most ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited April 2014
    UK Politics BBC TV Debate Winner As Confirmed By YouGov Poll
    02-04-2014 19:00
    Britain In Europe Debate
    Nick Clegg @ 5/2 <-----

    That is huge value.

    Paddy Power.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2014
    Still good news, but ...

    The CIPS/Markit PMI for UK Manufacturing in March is out this morning. A near full point down on February at 55.3 (from 56.2) and below market expectations marks a continued slowing in the rate of growth from last year's heights.

    The good news is that the index remains above its long run average of 51.4; factory input prices are falling (the first time for one and a half years); and, employment in the sector is continuing to rise.

    The not so good news is that the rate of growth is slowing most in new export business and in the manufacture of investment goods.

    Still enough here to sustain a 0.7% growth in GDP over the last quarter of 2013-14.

    George's budgetary stimulus could not have come at a more opportune time.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The most preposterous April Fool I can think up thus far is a Gordon Brown Defection to the Tories, bringing along with him Cam fan Dennis Skinner.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:


    UK Politics BBC TV Debate Winner As Confirmed By YouGov Poll
    02-04-2014 19:00
    Britain In Europe Debate
    Nick Clegg @ 5/2 <-----

    That is huge value.</p>

    Given that the audience will be disproportionately made up of people who obsess about the EU from one direction or the other, and given that the group of people who obsess about the EU largely do so from the direction of wild-eyed Europhobia, I'd say 5/2 was about right.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    I presume this is an April Fool's joke.
    Of course, the real joke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids are long past replica footie shirts!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html

    Terrible photoshop job; really would have thought the Mail could do better than that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:


    UK Politics BBC TV Debate Winner As Confirmed By YouGov Poll
    02-04-2014 19:00
    Britain In Europe Debate
    Nick Clegg @ 5/2 <-----

    That is huge value.</p>

    Given that the audience will be disproportionately made up of people who obsess about the EU from one direction or the other, and given that the group of people who obsess about the EU largely do so from the direction of wild-eyed Europhobia, I'd say 5/2 was about right.
    Take the 1/2 on offer from Shadsy for Farage then.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    I'm reading it as we speak: and it's a good book, if a little more esoteric than some of his other work.
    Does that Indy article actually say anything? Can't find it if so.
    The article totally fails to explain what HFT does, and why it is so pernicious, which is at the very least a serious journalistic failing.
    HFT is a terrible distortion of the market that has very little value added and huge volatility risk

  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited April 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    I presume this is an April Fool's joke.
    Of course, the real job ke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids ate long past replica footie shirts!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html

    When did replica tops suddenly become ~ £90 ? My brother bought me one of the blue away ones a couple of years back. I seem to remember them being £45-50 quid at the most ?
    Why do grown men want to dress up as footballers?

    Why are football shirts now considered to be evening wear?
  • Pulpstar said:

    I presume this is an April Fool's joke.
    Of course, the real job ke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids ate long past replica footie shirts!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html

    When did replica tops suddenly become ~ £90 ? My brother bought me one of the blue away ones a couple of years back. I seem to remember them being £45-50 quid at the most ?
    90 quid for a match standard shirt, 60 for a replica, and 50 for nippers.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    I'm reading it as we speak: and it's a good book, if a little more esoteric than some of his other work.
    Does that Indy article actually say anything? Can't find it if so.
    The article totally fails to explain what HFT does, and why it is so pernicious, which is at the very least a serious journalistic failing.
    HFT is a terrible distortion of the market that has very little value added and huge volatility risk

    One of my favourite bloggers on HFT: http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/clever-dicks.html
  • Pulpstar said:

    I presume this is an April Fool's joke.
    Of course, the real job ke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids ate long past replica footie shirts!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html

    When did replica tops suddenly become ~ £90 ? My brother bought me one of the blue away ones a couple of years back. I seem to remember them being £45-50 quid at the most ?
    Why do grown men want to dress up as footballers?

    Why are football shirts now considered to be evening wear?
    Grown men should only ever wear football shirts if they're actually participating.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    And the news from Europe ...

    Eurozone manufacturing Markit PMIs also out this morning. Still some way below the UK at 53.0, slightly down from 53.2 in February. France back into growth above 50 but Greece falling back below again. Top of the table is Ireland at 55.5, with Spain notably hitting two year high at 52.8 and Germany solid at 53.7.

    Input and output prices falling which will raise further concerns about deflation, but otherwise a reasonable reading if nothing to get too excited about.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited April 2014

    Expanding on my previous Scotland thought, for the enjoyment of Stuart Dickson et al, I am increasingly of the opinion that Yes will get over the line, in a very tight race.
    In terms of Tories in Scotland 2015, I expect them to get three seats - Dumfriesshire, Roxborough etc and probably Dumfries and Galloway (the blue borders solution). If the Tories want a majority they would need something like 6 to have an equivalently strong England and Wales showing that gets them over the line, so another three would have to come from.... Aberdeensire West, Argyll and Bute, Banff and Buchan, Fife NE and Edinburgh SW. I can't see any other Scottish seat there is even a dreamers hope in (and three of those five are pushing it to the limits of optimism).
    Actually D and G is a bit hopeful unless they can get to 18 or 19% in Scotland......
    2 or 3 then on current polling.

    DCT is a dead cert (thank goodness the Lib Dems shot down the new boundaries!)
    Roxburgh should be odds-on FAV (value there at Ladbrokes)
    No prices yet for Dumfries & Galloway, but CON EVS reasonable?

    Thereafter:
    Aberdeenshire West -> Shadsy doesn't give CON much hope, but personally I'm not so sure
    Argyll & Bute: SNP FAV, then Lab, then LD, then CON (so, little hope)
    Banff & Buchuan: fascinating seat this time; a big test for the "First Time Incumbency" theorists/fans
    Fife NE: CON still too long at 10/1 (Lad) IMHO; were originally at a daft 16/1
    Edinburgh SW: 3-way marginal; only local connoisseurs should get involved in betting
    Can't disagree with much of that, Tories slightly longer in D and G perhaps (3/1?) as it stands
    Aberdeen West, I don't fancy it either...
    Argyll and Bute statistically is the easiest shot, but it's a four way, so little hope
    I've got a slight buzz about Edinburgh SW with the badger going, but I think they might have lost ground too fast to the SNP there to capitalise....
    The blue borders solution looks best case on current polling.

    Another Scots seat worth looking at is Gordon, I think Bruce is stepping down? In which case you have Lab and SNP neck and neck needing a 7% swing. Tories a further two back rueing a seat that in 92 they surely would have taken in this situation.
    Yes, Malcolm Bruce MP, a former leader of the Scottish Lib Dems, is retiring next year. This is Alex Salmond's seat at Holyrood.

    Ladbrokes - Gordon

    LD 11/8
    SNP 6/4
    Lab 10/3
    Con 20/1
    UKIP 100/1

    Tory hopes in this area disappeared long ago. If you look at the demographics this kind of seat would be solid CON if it was in England.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    I'm reading it as we speak: and it's a good book, if a little more esoteric than some of his other work.
    Does that Indy article actually say anything? Can't find it if so.
    The article totally fails to explain what HFT does, and why it is so pernicious, which is at the very least a serious journalistic failing.
    HFT is a terrible distortion of the market that has very little value added and huge volatility risk

    wrong.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Re the Guardian, IIRC .... racist joke alert ...... there was, about this time some years ago, a suggestion that the Irish were going to convert. Only they were going to do it stages .... cars one week, lorries the next and so on.

    As opposed to SE Asia where motor-cycles drive on both sides of the road, against and with the on-coming traffic. Quite alarming if one is a passenger on a motor-cycle taxi, although also exhilarating!
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :

    Sep 2013 - 20.2%
    ...
    Mar 2014 - 12.5%

    If one simply extrapolates the trend to provide a first guess for September it predicts a winning margin of 4.8% for No: Yes 47.6% - No 52.4%

    Too close for comfort.
    Indeed. Which makes the current prices inexplicable:

    Yes 7/2 (various)
    No 1/4 (Betfair)

    Yes-backers as recently as 6 months ago were getting astonishingly good prices. It really was barmy.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    I presume this is an April Fool's joke.
    Of course, the real job ke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids ate long past replica footie shirts!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html

    When did replica tops suddenly become ~ £90 ? My brother bought me one of the blue away ones a couple of years back. I seem to remember them being £45-50 quid at the most ?
    Why do grown men want to dress up as footballers?

    Why are football shirts now considered to be evening wear?
    Grown men should only ever wear football shirts if they're actually participating.

    David Mellor?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    I'm reading it as we speak: and it's a good book, if a little more esoteric than some of his other work.
    Does that Indy article actually say anything? Can't find it if so.
    The article totally fails to explain what HFT does, and why it is so pernicious, which is at the very least a serious journalistic failing.
    HFT is a terrible distortion of the market that has very little value added and huge volatility risk

    wrong.
    Why do you disagree?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    edited April 2014
    The only person/character that pulled of a sports replica shirt was Max (AKA Peter Kay) with his Pakistan Cricket World Cup shirt in Max and Paddy's Road To Nowhere. It made it even more funnier that it was never highlighted or remarked on
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    edited April 2014
    (edited out for duplication)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Expanding on my previous Scotland thought, for the enjoyment of Stuart Dickson et al, I am increasingly of the opinion that Yes will get over the line, in a very tight race.
    In terms of Tories in Scotland 2015, I expect them to get three seats - Dumfriesshire, Roxborough etc and probably Dumfries and Galloway (the blue borders solution). If the Tories want a majority they would need something like 6 to have an equivalently strong England and Wales showing that gets them over the line, so another three would have to come from.... Aberdeensire West, Argyll and Bute, Banff and Buchan, Fife NE and Edinburgh SW. I can't see any other Scottish seat there is even a dreamers hope in (and three of those five are pushing it to the limits of optimism).
    Actually D and G is a bit hopeful unless they can get to 18 or 19% in Scotland......
    2 or 3 then on current polling.

    DCT is a dead cert (thank goodness the Lib Dems shot down the new boundaries!)
    Roxburgh should be odds-on FAV (value there at Ladbrokes)
    No prices yet for Dumfries & Galloway, but CON EVS reasonable?

    Thereafter:
    Aberdeenshire West -> Shadsy doesn't give CON much hope, but personally I'm not so sure
    Argyll & Bute: SNP FAV, then Lab, then LD, then CON (so, little hope)
    Banff & Buchuan: fascinating seat this time; a big test for the "First Time Incumbency" theorists/fans
    Fife NE: CON still too long at 10/1 (Lad) IMHO; were originally at a daft 16/1
    Edinburgh SW: 3-way marginal; only local connoisseurs should get involved in betting
    Can't disagree with much of that, Tories slightly longer in D and G perhaps (3/1?) as it stands
    Aberdeen West, I don't fancy it either...
    Argyll and Bute statistically is the easiest shot, but it's a four way, so little hope
    I've got a slight buzz about Edinburgh SW with the badger going, but I think they might have lost ground too fast to the SNP there to capitalise....
    The blue borders solution looks best case on current polling.

    Another Scots seat worth looking at is Gordon, I think Bruce is stepping down? In which case you have Lab and SNP neck and neck needing a 7% swing. Tories a further two back rueing a seat that in 92 they surely would have taken in this situation.
    Yes, Malcolm Bruce MP, a former leader of the Scottish Lib Dems, is retiring next year. This is Alex Salmond's seat at Holyrood.

    Ladbrokes - Gordon

    LD 11/8
    SNP 6/4
    Lab 10/3
    Con 20/1
    UKIP 100/1

    Tory hopes in this area disappeared long ago. If you look at the demographics this kind of seat would be solid CON if it was in England.
    SNP at 6/4 is very good value there
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    edited April 2014
    TOPPING said:


    Charles said:


    HFT is a terrible distortion of the market that has very little value added and huge volatility risk



    wrong.
    A small prize for the least illuminating exchange on PB, ever.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:



    HFT is a terrible distortion of the market that has very little value added and huge volatility risk



    wrong.

    A small prize for the least illuminating exchange on PB, ever.
    wrong
  • Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I presume this is an April Fool's joke.
    Of course, the real job ke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids ate long past replica footie shirts!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html

    When did replica tops suddenly become ~ £90 ? My brother bought me one of the blue away ones a couple of years back. I seem to remember them being £45-50 quid at the most ?
    Why do grown men want to dress up as footballers?

    Why are football shirts now considered to be evening wear?
    Grown men should only ever wear football shirts if they're actually participating.

    David Mellor?
    Well, he was participating in something, I suppose!

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The poll in the Mail shows the gap between Farage and Clegg on "danger to Britain" is less with the 18-24 age group, the opposite of what one might have expected. And the older age groups think Farage is more of a danger than younger ones:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593685/Four-10-voters-fear-Nigel-Farage-danger-Britain-TV-debate-rival-Nick-Clegg-depth.html
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    TOPPING said:


    Charles said:


    HFT is a terrible distortion of the market that has very little value added and huge volatility risk



    wrong.
    A small prize for the least illuminating exchange on PB, ever.
    Computer generated comment and response.

    What do you expect?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    AndyJS said:

    The poll in the Mail shows the gap between Farage and Clegg on "danger to Britain" is less with the 18-24 age group, the opposite of what one might have expected. And the older age groups think Farage is more of a danger than younger ones:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593685/Four-10-voters-fear-Nigel-Farage-danger-Britain-TV-debate-rival-Nick-Clegg-depth.html

    Maybe the older voters (who we know are more Tory) think the only danger Farage can be to Britain is to allow a Labour government?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Tory party members make it neck and neck between Johnson and May on 22%.Osborne goes up 5 to 11% but the question "What will Boris do?" remains and will continue to fuel speculation on whose to be the next Tory leader post Dave.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/04/boris-is-back-on-top-in-our-future-leader-poll-just-and-osbornes-rating-nearly-doubles.html
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    The HFT non discussion is possibly the worst ever threadette on PB. An opaque OP followed by one-word rebuttals with no explanation either of the original concept all the rebuttal. I'll join in for fun.

    Wrong.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:
    I'm reading it as we speak: and it's a good book, if a little more esoteric than some of his other work.
    Does that Indy article actually say anything? Can't find it if so.
    The article totally fails to explain what HFT does, and why it is so pernicious, which is at the very least a serious journalistic failing.
    HFT is a terrible distortion of the market that has very little value added and huge volatility risk

    wrong.
    Why do you disagree?
    There is good evidence that HFT increases stock price volatility. But then so do earnings (surprises), leverage, growth, etc. Some of the arguments I have seen bring in the Flash Crash, negative feedback and momentum traders to reinforce HFT-inspired volatility. I don't have a huge argument with this, save to say there have always been elements in the market which create such feedback loops.

    As to the added value, I would contend that it is not a "terrible distortion" (or even "morbidly distorting"!!). As is well documented, HFT provides liquidity to the market and liquidity reduces spreads and hence costs. The aim of the HFT (the vanilla market-making type) is to take a turn on the bid-ask. In so doing they make it easier for your pension fund to buy and sell large blocks of stock.

    As to what I believe is Lewis' contention of "front running" - there is little evidence that HFT significantly distorts the price paid or received by both institutional or individual investors although I appreciate that certain practitioners attempt to determine the size and direction of other market participants. There are many developments in HFT which make this increasingly difficult, which is to be expected, as the market develops.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    "Channel 4's Nigel Farage documentary was so cloying even UKIP fans would find it sickly, says Neil Midgley":

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/tv-and-radio-reviews/10735505/Nigel-Farage-Who-Are-You-Channel-4-review.html
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2014
    Tories (at least) warming to Osborne. Satisfaction now 85.6%, compared with about 18% a year ago. Admittedly it's a bit of a voodoo poll, but even so:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/04/osborne-tops-our-cabinet-league-table-for-the-very-first-time.html

    Interesting also to see confirmation that Jeremy Hunt is now quite highly regarded.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    BobaFett said:

    The HFT non discussion is possibly the worst ever threadette on PB. An opaque OP followed by one-word rebuttals with no explanation either of the original concept all the rebuttal. I'll join in for fun.

    Wrong.

    Your wrong is completely wrong imho
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    TOPPING said:


    Charles said:


    HFT is a terrible distortion of the market that has very little value added and huge volatility risk



    wrong.
    A small prize for the least illuminating exchange on PB, ever.
    Can I take it in cash?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    "Channel 4's Nigel Farage documentary was so cloying even UKIP fans would find it sickly, says Neil Midgley":

    I'm guessing he doesnt know many UKIP fans.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I presume this is an April Fool's joke.
    Of course, the real job ke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids ate long past replica footie shirts!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html

    When did replica tops suddenly become ~ £90 ? My brother bought me one of the blue away ones a couple of years back. I seem to remember them being £45-50 quid at the most ?
    Why do grown men want to dress up as footballers?

    Why are football shirts now considered to be evening wear?
    Grown men should only ever wear football shirts if they're actually participating.

    David Mellor?
    Well, he was participating in something, I suppose!

    It is expressly stated in the man code that a CHELSEA shirt is required for activities of that nature.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I presume this is an April Fool's joke.
    Of course, the real job ke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids ate long past replica footie shirts!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html

    When did replica tops suddenly become ~ £90 ? My brother bought me one of the blue away ones a couple of years back. I seem to remember them being £45-50 quid at the most ?
    Why do grown men want to dress up as footballers?

    Why are football shirts now considered to be evening wear?
    Grown men should only ever wear football shirts if they're actually participating.

    David Mellor?
    Well, he was participating in something, I suppose!

    It is expressly stated in the man code that a CHELSEA shirt is required for activities of that nature.
    And in the case of John Terry shinpads are needed too.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Interesting analysis of the Populus poll on UKPR. 41% of the weighted sample voted Tory in 2010, so Labour's three point lead not bad at all for them.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @State.

    Wrong again.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Neil said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Channel 4's Nigel Farage documentary was so cloying even UKIP fans would find it sickly, says Neil Midgley":

    I'm guessing he doesnt know many UKIP fans.
    Who the hell is Neil Midgley? With a name like that, he's better of in the marshes.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited April 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Patrick said:

    Stuart

    Looks like YES is reeling them in but not nearly fast enough to be ahead in 6 months' time.

    I think Salmond will probably be able to switch a few percentage points in his favour during the last couple of weeks. So No needs to be ahead by more than about 5 points at that stage.
    Another factor to bear in mind is the methodology of the polling companies. Some firms are showing a much tighter race (eg. "The Gold Standard" ICM). Some are showing huge No leads. Not all of them can be right.

    So, when betting, you have to make a judgement on with side of the Poll of Polls average is most likely to be correct. That is why I refuse to make a prediction. I really think that this is far, far too tight to call this far out.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I presume this is an April Fool's joke.
    Of course, the real job ke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids ate long past replica footie shirts!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html

    When did replica tops suddenly become ~ £90 ? My brother bought me one of the blue away ones a couple of years back. I seem to remember them being £45-50 quid at the most ?
    Why do grown men want to dress up as footballers?

    Why are football shirts now considered to be evening wear?
    Grown men should only ever wear football shirts if they're actually participating.

    David Mellor?
    Well, he was participating in something, I suppose!

    Max Clifford recently confirmed that he'd made the football shirt bit up for extra spice to the story IIRC

  • Well here are some points in HFTs' favour.

    1/ they increase market liquidity by providing a constant supply of bids and offers
    2/ hence they reduce bid / ask spreads and hence volatility
    3/ they curtail individuals' attempts at abuses such as painting the tape or marking the close by confronting such miscreants with a wall of money coming the other way
    4/ the risk of HFTs going wild can be and largely is curtailed by exchanges' controls that suspend or pause the market in the event of silliness
    5/ their analytics provide a form of market abuse monitoring such that they police each other. Between the lines, the evidence in the Michael Coscia case last year was that he was spotted either by an exchange - or was spotted and denounced by another HFT.
    6/ it follows that the kind of vague evil HFTs supposedly commit - and nobody seems able to explain what this is - must largely occur against other HFTs
    7/ the commitment of traders analyses published by LIFFE, CFTC and ICE tell you that, in most commodities at least, the overwhelming majority of positions are held by commercials, and that HFTs do not hold overnight positions. Someone who holds no positions but trades in and out intraday is as likely to dampen price volatility as exacerbate it
    8/ always ask cui bono? much of the bellyaching about HFTs comes from those who used to front run orders on the floor and who now can't do so. the superior information is now in HFTs' hands not theirs, and that's what they're annoyed about
    9/ er
    10/ that'll do for now
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    Well here are some points in HFTs' favour.

    1/ they increase market liquidity by providing a constant supply of bids and offers
    2/ hence they reduce bid / ask spreads and hence volatility
    3/ they curtail individuals' attempts at abuses such as painting the tape or marking the close by confronting such miscreants with a wall of money coming the other way
    4/ the risk of HFTs going wild can be and largely is curtailed by exchanges' controls that suspend or pause the market in the event of silliness
    5/ their analytics provide a form of market abuse monitoring such that they police each other. Between the lines, the evidence in the Michael Coscia case last year was that he was spotted either by an exchange - or was spotted and denounced by another HFT.
    6/ it follows that the kind of vague evil HFTs supposedly commit - and nobody seems able to explain what this is - must largely occur against other HFTs
    7/ the commitment of traders analyses published by LIFFE, CFTC and ICE tell you that, in most commodities at least, the overwhelming majority of positions are held by commercials, and that HFTs do not hold overnight positions. Someone who holds no positions but trades in and out intraday is as likely to dampen price volatility as exacerbate it
    8/ always ask cui bono? much of the bellyaching about HFTs comes from those who used to front run orders on the floor and who now can't do so. the superior information is now in HFTs' hands not theirs, and that's what they're annoyed about
    9/ er
    10/ that'll do for now

    right.

    :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited April 2014

    Well here are some points in HFTs' favour.

    1/ they increase market liquidity by providing a constant supply of bids and offers
    2/ hence they reduce bid / ask spreads and hence volatility
    3/ they curtail individuals' attempts at abuses such as painting the tape or marking the close by confronting such miscreants with a wall of money coming the other way
    4/ the risk of HFTs going wild can be and largely is curtailed by exchanges' controls that suspend or pause the market in the event of silliness
    5/ their analytics provide a form of market abuse monitoring such that they police each other. Between the lines, the evidence in the Michael Coscia case last year was that he was spotted either by an exchange - or was spotted and denounced by another HFT.
    6/ it follows that the kind of vague evil HFTs supposedly commit - and nobody seems able to explain what this is - must largely occur against other HFTs
    7/ the commitment of traders analyses published by LIFFE, CFTC and ICE tell you that, in most commodities at least, the overwhelming majority of positions are held by commercials, and that HFTs do not hold overnight positions. Someone who holds no positions but trades in and out intraday is as likely to dampen price volatility as exacerbate it
    8/ always ask cui bono? much of the bellyaching about HFTs comes from those who used to front run orders on the floor and who now can't do so. the superior information is now in HFTs' hands not theirs, and that's what they're annoyed about
    9/ er
    10/ that'll do for now

    That said, as I mentioned above, there is evidence (Zhang, 2010) that supports the notion that HFT increases stockprice volatility. Which I can live with.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    SeanT said:

    The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :

    Sep 2013 - 20.2%
    ...
    Mar 2014 - 12.5%

    If one simply extrapolates the trend to provide a first guess for September it predicts a winning margin of 4.8% for No: Yes 47.6% - No 52.4%

    Too close for comfort.
    Indeed. Which makes the current prices inexplicable:

    Yes 7/2 (various)
    No 1/4 (Betfair)

    Yes-backers as recently as 6 months ago were getting astonishingly good prices. It really was barmy.

    I imagine the bookies are factoring in the well-known (at least to pb-ers) phenomenon, that virtually all referendum voters veer towards supporting the status quo ante, in the final months of a campaign, so you would expect a NO surge in the summer.

    However I happily confess there is absolutely no sign of this yet, in fact quite the opposite: all the undecideds appear to be going to YES. This shouldbe freaking the hell out of the unionists, especially Labour (as it is their voters who will decide, and their party which will suffer most from a YES), yet they do nothing. But I've already made this point four McZillion times so I won't reiterate.

    And now. Work. Proper work. Later.
    A happy bunny here as I got 5-1 when it was going.

    Presumably the bookie odds reflect existing betting as much as real world odds? I wonder if ther ehas been an element of Obama-opponent style deliberately betting large sums on No just to make a political/campaigning propaganda point. Will be amusing if the result is the same ...



This discussion has been closed.