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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 20
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 2014 Populus monthly aggregate – sample size 16k
Today sees the second of what looks set to be a great resource right through until the general election – the Populus/FT monthly aggregate based on all the firm’s twice-weekly surveys with an overall sample size of more more than 16k.
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Not a likely progression, but illustrates that only tiny changes are required over a year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10735711/Alex-Salmond-to-replace-the-Queen-on-new-Scottish-pound-coin.html
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/01/scotland-driving-on-right-independence-road-scheme
LD2010 split: LAB: 28, LD: 41
UKIP shares increase from all parties
Cons: 15
LAB: 9
LD: 10
The Sun reports that the Queen will be fraccing at Buckingham Palace
Do Labour types on here know why they are not further ahead in the polls?
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 35m
EXCL: David Cameron to create new government department to fight for working class people: http://bit.ly/1i9qdTQ
LOL
April Fool pt 5
Mick Snorkers makes a comment that isn't sneering, derogatory or patronising
Chortles
The last week or so is the first time that Net Government Approval has been regularly under -20 since December 2010.
I don't think it will work like that. People that have gone to UKIP appear to be sticking with them. There has been polling details on here, showing that UKIP supporters do not care whether Labour are elected, as a result of them voting UKIP.
Roxburgh should be odds-on FAV (value there at Ladbrokes)
No prices yet for Dumfries & Galloway, but CON EVS reasonable?
Thereafter:
Aberdeenshire West -> Shadsy doesn't give CON much hope, but personally I'm not so sure
Argyll & Bute: SNP FAV, then Lab, then LD, then CON (so, little hope)
Banff & Buchuan: fascinating seat this time; a big test for the "First Time Incumbency" theorists/fans
Fife NE: CON still too long at 10/1 (Lad) IMHO; were originally at a daft 16/1
Edinburgh SW: 3-way marginal; only local connoisseurs should get involved in betting
Beware the April Fools before midday and the even bigger ones after that hour.
Sep 2013 - 20.2%
Sep 2013 - 20.0%
Sep 2013 - 18.4%
Oct 2013 - 17.9%
Oct 2013 - 17.5%
Oct 2013 - 17.4%
Nov 2013 - 17.5%
Dec 2013 - 17.1%
Dec 2013 - 16.3%
Dec 2013 - 16.2%
Dec 2013 - 15.8%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.7%
Feb 2014 - 15.1%
Feb 2014 - 13.6%
Feb 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 13.6%
Mar 2014 - 12.9%
Mar 2014 - 13.0%
Mar 2014 - 12.5%
We are now only 5 1/2 months from Scotland fracking the UK when as I have always expected the YES win because London didn't think it could really be possible in the same way the experts assured Tony Blair no single party could ever win a Holyrood election.
I am impressed at the ground war being fought by the YES campaign though I know hundreds of Scots Tories, particularly CFS members are campaigning for Better Together. Rest assured it will be the Scottish Labour party which delivers independence by failing to secure its own traditional voters for Better Together.
As for GE2015, I expect the rather dull but very nice chap David Mundell to hold D,C,T by a country mile. If Russell Brown fights on in Dumfries and Galloway for Labour, I am far from convinced the Tories will recapture what should be a safe seat against everyone except the SNP.
In 2010 the Tories halved Sir Robert Smith's majority in Aberdeenshire W and if there is no LibDem recovery in Scotland, I expect the new young Tory candidate to take the seat. Argyll is a basket case of a seat with areas which identify strongly with all 4 parties and it is a genuine 4-way marginal. Edinburgh SW without Alistair Darling (who I expect to announce his retirement on 19th September) will be closer than the numbers suggest and Edinburgh West with a depressed LibDem could also be a 4-way dogfight. NE Fife without Sir Ming will also be a 3 or 4-way marginal.
Labour should hold on in Stirling, though I would expect the Tories to be 2nd. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories give the SNP a scare in one seat. Banff last time was incredibly close but the new SNP MP is well liked so she should hold on. If the Scots Tories hold 1 seat and win 2 they will have done incredibly well.
Looks like YES is reeling them in but not nearly fast enough to be ahead in 6 months' time.
Too close for comfort.
Review of Michael Lewis's new book "Flash Boys" in today's Independent:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/greed-atthe-speed-of-light-michael-lewis-returns-to-wall-street-25-years-after-liars-poker-9226915.html
Labour VI supporting Labour on: Problems facing the Country:
Asylum & ImmIgration: 43%
Europe: 57%
Law &Order: 63%
Economy: 68%
Tax: 69%
Welfare Benefits: 71%
The first name is "anal" backwards but that's as far as I'm getting. I've tried the obvious stuff like "hoots mon" and "donald where's ma troosers", but no joy.
1) The gap between the Conservatives and Labour has nearly halved in the last month. And with UKIP on over 12%, the Conservatives could overtake Labour by squeezing UKIP without Labour losing any support.
2) I very much doubt that the Lib Dems in practice will tally under 10% in the general election. I expect that they will get some of their support back from Labour. That, however, is not necessarily good news for the Conservatives if that hypothetical increase in support is tactical, as seems most likely.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593685/Four-10-voters-fear-Nigel-Farage-danger-Britain-TV-debate-rival-Nick-Clegg-depth.html
http://archive.is/d3bVQ
One may wish to have a look at the odds being offered on the 2nd EU Debate Yougov poll debate 'winner' by both Paddy and Ladbrokes...
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DYOR etc.
Aberdeen West, I don't fancy it either...
Argyll and Bute statistically is the easiest shot, but it's a four way, so little hope
I've got a slight buzz about Edinburgh SW with the badger going, but I think they might have lost ground too fast to the SNP there to capitalise....
The blue borders solution looks best case on current polling.
Another Scots seat worth looking at is Gordon, I think Bruce is stepping down? In which case you have Lab and SNP neck and neck needing a 7% swing. Tories a further two back rueing a seat that in 92 they surely would have taken in this situation.
Of course, the real joke is that the real 2014 shirts will cost 90 quid. Thankfully, my kids are long past replica footie shirts!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2593515/Revealed-England-wear-one-YELLOW-kit-World-Cup-homage-hosts-Brazil.html
02-04-2014 19:00
Britain In Europe Debate
Nick Clegg @ 5/2 <-----
That is huge value.
Paddy Power.
The CIPS/Markit PMI for UK Manufacturing in March is out this morning. A near full point down on February at 55.3 (from 56.2) and below market expectations marks a continued slowing in the rate of growth from last year's heights.
The good news is that the index remains above its long run average of 51.4; factory input prices are falling (the first time for one and a half years); and, employment in the sector is continuing to rise.
The not so good news is that the rate of growth is slowing most in new export business and in the manufacture of investment goods.
Still enough here to sustain a 0.7% growth in GDP over the last quarter of 2013-14.
George's budgetary stimulus could not have come at a more opportune time.
Why are football shirts now considered to be evening wear?
Eurozone manufacturing Markit PMIs also out this morning. Still some way below the UK at 53.0, slightly down from 53.2 in February. France back into growth above 50 but Greece falling back below again. Top of the table is Ireland at 55.5, with Spain notably hitting two year high at 52.8 and Germany solid at 53.7.
Input and output prices falling which will raise further concerns about deflation, but otherwise a reasonable reading if nothing to get too excited about.
Ladbrokes - Gordon
LD 11/8
SNP 6/4
Lab 10/3
Con 20/1
UKIP 100/1
Tory hopes in this area disappeared long ago. If you look at the demographics this kind of seat would be solid CON if it was in England.
As opposed to SE Asia where motor-cycles drive on both sides of the road, against and with the on-coming traffic. Quite alarming if one is a passenger on a motor-cycle taxi, although also exhilarating!
Yes 7/2 (various)
No 1/4 (Betfair)
Yes-backers as recently as 6 months ago were getting astonishingly good prices. It really was barmy.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593685/Four-10-voters-fear-Nigel-Farage-danger-Britain-TV-debate-rival-Nick-Clegg-depth.html
What do you expect?
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/04/boris-is-back-on-top-in-our-future-leader-poll-just-and-osbornes-rating-nearly-doubles.html
Wrong.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/music/michael-jackson/10735331/Michael-Jackson-new-album-Xscape-first-listen.html
As to the added value, I would contend that it is not a "terrible distortion" (or even "morbidly distorting"!!). As is well documented, HFT provides liquidity to the market and liquidity reduces spreads and hence costs. The aim of the HFT (the vanilla market-making type) is to take a turn on the bid-ask. In so doing they make it easier for your pension fund to buy and sell large blocks of stock.
As to what I believe is Lewis' contention of "front running" - there is little evidence that HFT significantly distorts the price paid or received by both institutional or individual investors although I appreciate that certain practitioners attempt to determine the size and direction of other market participants. There are many developments in HFT which make this increasingly difficult, which is to be expected, as the market develops.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/tv-and-radio-reviews/10735505/Nigel-Farage-Who-Are-You-Channel-4-review.html
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/04/osborne-tops-our-cabinet-league-table-for-the-very-first-time.html
Interesting also to see confirmation that Jeremy Hunt is now quite highly regarded.
Wrong again.
So, when betting, you have to make a judgement on with side of the Poll of Polls average is most likely to be correct. That is why I refuse to make a prediction. I really think that this is far, far too tight to call this far out.
1/ they increase market liquidity by providing a constant supply of bids and offers
2/ hence they reduce bid / ask spreads and hence volatility
3/ they curtail individuals' attempts at abuses such as painting the tape or marking the close by confronting such miscreants with a wall of money coming the other way
4/ the risk of HFTs going wild can be and largely is curtailed by exchanges' controls that suspend or pause the market in the event of silliness
5/ their analytics provide a form of market abuse monitoring such that they police each other. Between the lines, the evidence in the Michael Coscia case last year was that he was spotted either by an exchange - or was spotted and denounced by another HFT.
6/ it follows that the kind of vague evil HFTs supposedly commit - and nobody seems able to explain what this is - must largely occur against other HFTs
7/ the commitment of traders analyses published by LIFFE, CFTC and ICE tell you that, in most commodities at least, the overwhelming majority of positions are held by commercials, and that HFTs do not hold overnight positions. Someone who holds no positions but trades in and out intraday is as likely to dampen price volatility as exacerbate it
8/ always ask cui bono? much of the bellyaching about HFTs comes from those who used to front run orders on the floor and who now can't do so. the superior information is now in HFTs' hands not theirs, and that's what they're annoyed about
9/ er
10/ that'll do for now
Presumably the bookie odds reflect existing betting as much as real world odds? I wonder if ther ehas been an element of Obama-opponent style deliberately betting large sums on No just to make a political/campaigning propaganda point. Will be amusing if the result is the same ...