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Farage on Channel 4 is a hit:
James Whale @THEJamesWhale 15m
Watching #channel4 @Nigel_Farage Eye opening into the the workings of the #EU or should that be "The New World Order"?
Gary Williams @Godfather83Gw 20m
@Nigel_Farage I've been following you and ukip for a fair few years now and it just gets better and better. Hat's off to you.
David Buik @truemagic68 22m
Nigel Farage is utterly illuminating about the totally undemocratic status of the European Union on Channel 4! Totally brilliant exposure!
Daniel Steadman @DanSteadman84 21m
@nigel_farage watching C4 and really enjoying it! Relateable and entertaining #ukip #whoareyou
Pirate Bob: Yaaar! @AhmedTheCat 9m
The problem for #UKIP haters is, Farage comes across as a decent and likeable bloke. Unlike Cameron, Clegg, and Miliband...
I could go on; massive response from the program. PBers who missed it, should watch it and learn.
Went to Plumpton this afternoon - saw the Princess Royal, couldn't back a winner.
At Oban, we hired a car but also did the steam train from Fort William to Mallaig via Glenfinnan (not the best of days weather-wise).We also went over to Iona but didn't see the Abbey - had a delightful lunch with a lovely lady who took us all in and provided a sumptuous lunch and such good company we nearly missed the ferry back.
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_membership_crashes_through_35_000
So how many PBers will be ripping up a Q1 crossover betting slip in about an hour's time?
There were several places in the UKIP piece where I found myself groaning: for example, there's a section about the EFTA trade surplus with the EU. Not a bad point, in itself, but to fail to mention that the reason for the surplus is due to - pretty much in its entirety - Norway's exports of oil & gas to the EU suggests either lazy research, or a desire to politically point score over making sensible and substantive economic points. I would also take issue with the idea that the former British commonwealth (which is, let us not forget, completely dominated in terms of population numbers by India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) could take over the role of the EU as trading partners. Those governments have (by and large and excepting where the IMF has had an unusually positive influence) being captured by producer interests; Pakistan has a theoretical free trade agreement with China (and that is pretty much Pakistan's only FRA), but it is free in name only. The idea that historic members of the commonwealth rush to join a new FTA - with genuinely free trade - is (unfortunately) a fiction.
Despite these criticisms, there is some good stuff in there. UKIP is absolutely right that there is no possibility of penal sanctions, and those who suggest that somehow UK trade with the EU would cease are talking absolute rubbish. It is essentially certain that we would conclude a free trade agreement with the EU without any problems post-Brexit.
However, my final conclusion - from a textual point of view - is that the document needs serious editing. It should be 10 pages, not 91. It also needs greater coherence between its summary and its contents (some bullet points at the front go basically unmentioned in the next 80 pages). And it should skip on much of the polemics: the facts are worth sharing without the lazy straw-manninng,
I'm pretty sure Rod has previously posted on the discrepancy between seats / votes in the Euros (and came to the same conclusion you have). If he's around he might repost the numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26827898
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593556/Frances-Socialist-PM-entire-government-quit-following-electoral-meltdown-Hollande-set-hand-job-interior-minister-Manuel-Valls.html
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead at three points: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead at three points: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%
People are heartily sick of so called intellectuals deciding what is best for them, the same fools who told us we would all go to hell in a handcart if we didn't join the Euro.
NO government since the 1970s has EVER trailed in the polls for two unbroken years and gone onto win re-election*
(Thatcher in the 1979-83 parliament narrowly avoided being behind for 2 unbroken years with one solitary poll in early 1981 which gave the Tories a 0.5% lead)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
YouGov average leads in 2 week blocks so far this year:
Week 1+2 - 6.1
Week 3+4 - 5.3
Week 5+6 - 5.6
Week 7+8 - 5.6
week 9+10 - 5.7
So first 10 weeks position essentially dead flat. Then:
Week 11 (Budget week) - 4.6
Week 12 (Last week) - 3.0
Now today we have YouGov and Populus both with a lead of 3. So a bit above the 1's and 2's we saw soon after the Budget but still well below the previous steady state of just over 5.5.
Presumably the lawyers in item 19 are the same ones who are failing to advise the SNP that independence wouldn't mean independence?
Just commenting on the numbers. I make no further comment.
Still, at least Hollande has at last reached the stage where he admits he got everything 100% wrong, although it remains to be seen whether that now translates into belated action:
In a short televised address on Monday, President Hollande said France had to put right its public finances, acknowledging it was time for change.
He proposed a reduction in taxes and worker contributions to spur job creation. "We are in this for the long haul," he said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26826292
Miliband has so much misplaced self-belief that I don't think he'd ever get even to that first stage of admitting the problem; you'd need to wait for a Labour regicide, which on past form could be a very long wait.
'Darling disowned over sterling union ‘plebiscite’
Downing Street was on Monday forced to disown comments from Alistair Darling, head of the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK, after he suggested there could be a second referendum on whether Westminster shares the pound..'
http://tinyurl.com/nday8t8
Time for an 'Al is crap' thread?
Words fail me.
If I win re-election then by definition I'll be the Member for Accurate Prognosis (Central). You, however, will be Wealthy Travel Writer either way. To each his own.
Fact: England went Labour in 2001 (seats and votes)
Fact: Scotland has only a few more Labour seats than London.
If Merkel or Hollande started campaigning for BOO, how would that go down?
The BT campaign, and other Unionists should just make clear what independence looks like, then it is up to Scots to make their choice. Unlike Jane Mulcahy's advisors in 19, it should be clear that divorce means divorce.
If Scots then want to be ruled by the bluffing and blustering Salmond, then so be it.
You live in a poncy part of London writing poncy blogs for a poncy newspaper read by poncy people
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 32m
DAILY MAIL: How police waged a 'guerrilla war' on ministers #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oB7W5zEnsY
In this case
Differential turnout
Malapportionment
the D'Hondt counting system
Variable district magnitude
may all conspire to produce nationally disproportional results, and that can include violation of rank order...
Yes to Independence do not have that problem, nor did No to AV have to worry about making FPTP seem unattractive by being so negative - them being negative did not impact on the electoral system they supported, whereas No to Independence being so negative makes the rUK look less appealing.
For my part the further Scotland and JackW is away from me, the better. They can also keep their retched football league, together with the Celtic and Rangers supporters and drop them into the Firth of Forth
And after the boring rants of SeanT, appropo Scotland, drop him in too.
You are of course also quite correct that those who know very little about the campaign on the ground in scotland are going to be in for one hell of a shock in the final few weeks of the campaign when GOTV and differential turnout will be an enormous factor. We're already seeing No being heavily outgunned with the sheer numbers of meetings, volunteers and fundraising across scotland.
It's also vastly amusing to see the comical pronouncements from those who still don't realise that after all their shrieking about currency it shot up from almost last and 8th place in the rankings of issues the scottish public found most important, to a heady 8th place.
*chortle*
Breitbart News @BreitbartNews
'Vast Majority' of Romney Donors Want Jeb Bush Run in 2016: A "vast majority" of Mitt Romney donors, establish... http://bit.ly/P6wPdp
Hard to believe there could be something even more amusing than the last GOP circus and the Romneyshambles, but another Bush would certainly qualify.
Night all.
The idea that there will be a low turnout for the most important decision in Scotland for a generation is wishful thinking by Yes on a massive scale, and will give a NO win even more legitimacy!
I don't think the Westminster Labour party have done anywhere near enough to motivate Labour voters up here to turn out in the numbers they did in 2010. Its worth remembering that the last very tight GE back in 1992 saw Labour lose its only seat to the Conservatives in Scotland. And the big unknown up here at the next GE is going to be the Libdem performance and turnout, I wonder how many of those Libdems voters have in the distance past voted Conservative rather than Labour up here? What ever happens with the Libdem vote share up here, I suspect the main beneficiaries will be the SNP or the Conservatives in the seats where it may matter if it does drop substantially. And this is despite what the current UK wide polls are telling us about Libdem switchers.
And a PS to all those doom and gloom merchants on here who are predicting a Yes vote despite the polls and ongoing political campaigns. Just think about the fact that every Scots No voter will know a Malcolmg or Mick Pork who is using the same love bombing techniques on them to try and woo over them over to the Yes camp......
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593183/Barely-quarter-Tory-voters-think-David-Cameron-touch-normal-people-think-gets-early-leaders.html
Their advertising has come up with an inspired move - they show several different men, all of whom are named Ronald McDonald, sampling and enjoying the Taco Bell breakfast fare.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKAcOawiaNk
You might have been paying attention elsewhere but I assure you No to AV made damn sure Clegg was as deciding a factor as they could.
http://chimerapapers.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/no2av-clegg.jpeg
Clegg opines about independence almost as much as Cammie and Osbrowne but then some are actually deluded enough to think Cammie is an asset to the Yes campaign. That must by why he's too scared to debate it properly with Salmond. Also, where did you get the amusing idea that Galloway was in any way central to No? He's very much fringe and has only popped up on TV once or twice.
Darling was being briefed against by tories a while back for his lacklustre and dull Private Frazer impersonation. At least that wasn't Downing Street that was doing so but a few disgruntled tories. Tonight Downing Street is distancing themselves from Darling. Think that's because he's such a terrific asset do you? If you don't understand some of the differential turnout polling already produced or that negative campaigning depresses turnout, particularly for those doing it, then would be entirely your problem.
LOL
George Osborne 'Too Preoccupied' With The Rich, Warns Nick Clegg
Nick Clegg has lashed out at Tory ministers for being "too preoccupied" with the rich and accused chancellor George Osborne of trying to "steal" credit for the Lib Dem policy of raising the income tax threshold.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/31/nick-clegg-george-osborne-rich_n_5061276.html
Yet curiously no sign of calamity Clegg and his missing spine actually stopping Osbrowne.
Funny that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/31/ukip-nigel-farage-bnp_n_5062951.html
"I said I don't like him, I wouldn't trust him, wouldn't want to live in his country. But compared with the kids who run foreign policy in this country I have got more respect for him than our lot."