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James Whale @THEJamesWhale 15m Watching #channel4 @Nigel_Farage Eye opening into the the workings of the #EU or should that be "The New World Order"?
Gary Williams @Godfather83Gw 20m @Nigel_Farage I've been following you and ukip for a fair few years now and it just gets better and better. Hat's off to you.
David Buik @truemagic68 22m Nigel Farage is utterly illuminating about the totally undemocratic status of the European Union on Channel 4! Totally brilliant exposure!
Daniel Steadman @DanSteadman84 21m @nigel_farage watching C4 and really enjoying it! Relateable and entertaining #ukip #whoareyou
Pirate Bob: Yaaar! @AhmedTheCat 9m The problem for #UKIP haters is, Farage comes across as a decent and likeable bloke. Unlike Cameron, Clegg, and Miliband...
I could go on; massive response from the program. PBers who missed it, should watch it and learn.
Yes, I did this journey with three friends in the mid-80s. We travelled up on the overnight sleeper from London, walked from Glasgow Central to Queen Street in the early morning and then got on the Scotrail train with the old compartments.
At Oban, we hired a car but also did the steam train from Fort William to Mallaig via Glenfinnan (not the best of days weather-wise).We also went over to Iona but didn't see the Abbey - had a delightful lunch with a lovely lady who took us all in and provided a sumptuous lunch and such good company we nearly missed the ferry back.
I have now read the big UKIP 'out of the EU' piece. I'm afraid Dr North's piece is the better one: not least because it confines itself to a single hypothesis, and doesn't meander all over the place.
There were several places in the UKIP piece where I found myself groaning: for example, there's a section about the EFTA trade surplus with the EU. Not a bad point, in itself, but to fail to mention that the reason for the surplus is due to - pretty much in its entirety - Norway's exports of oil & gas to the EU suggests either lazy research, or a desire to politically point score over making sensible and substantive economic points. I would also take issue with the idea that the former British commonwealth (which is, let us not forget, completely dominated in terms of population numbers by India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) could take over the role of the EU as trading partners. Those governments have (by and large and excepting where the IMF has had an unusually positive influence) being captured by producer interests; Pakistan has a theoretical free trade agreement with China (and that is pretty much Pakistan's only FRA), but it is free in name only. The idea that historic members of the commonwealth rush to join a new FTA - with genuinely free trade - is (unfortunately) a fiction.
Despite these criticisms, there is some good stuff in there. UKIP is absolutely right that there is no possibility of penal sanctions, and those who suggest that somehow UK trade with the EU would cease are talking absolute rubbish. It is essentially certain that we would conclude a free trade agreement with the EU without any problems post-Brexit.
However, my final conclusion - from a textual point of view - is that the document needs serious editing. It should be 10 pages, not 91. It also needs greater coherence between its summary and its contents (some bullet points at the front go basically unmentioned in the next 80 pages). And it should skip on much of the polemics: the facts are worth sharing without the lazy straw-manninng,
Easterross I doubt it will have changed any minds, Farage came across as a saloon bar populist, speaking up for the silent majority and popular with the likes of Rod Liddle, Simon Heffer and Kelvin Mackenzie, while the intellectual elite and metropolitan dwellers see him as backwards, uncouth and in the words of Yasmin Alibhai Brown UKIP is even 'dangerous'
I have been looking at the betting on the Europe election and I have followed the advice of our OGH to some extent. However there is an issue that is troubling me, before I go in big, which is as follows: there are two different markets, one on the most votes and one on the most seats. They are not the same bet, because of the regional list system , and if it is as close as OGH suggests, there is a strong possibility that the results could be different winners on each market, or perhaps even more likely, that the seat result could be a tie. I don't know whether anyone else has looked at this, but I would be interested to post more information if anyone else is interested in this slightly arcane issue. But I do think it is very conceivable that Labour might win the most seats without winning the most votes, so we need to take care what we are betting on!
I'm pretty sure Rod has previously posted on the discrepancy between seats / votes in the Euros (and came to the same conclusion you have). If he's around he might repost the numbers.
Thanks, but there is no need to welcome me as a new boy, I have posted many times but not for a while, and my old details no longer seem to work, so I have re registered, this time under my own name not a pseudonym
I think that there is a lot of gearing around the 10% threshold. Below it the LDs really suffer, get much above it and they will hold a reasonable number.
I have been looking at the betting on the Europe election and I have followed the advice of our OGH to some extent. However there is an issue that is troubling me, before I go in big, which is as follows: there are two different markets, one on the most votes and one on the most seats. They are not the same bet, because of the regional list system , and if it is as close as OGH suggests, there is a strong possibility that the results could be different winners on each market, or perhaps even more likely, that the seat result could be a tie. I don't know whether anyone else has looked at this, but I would be interested to post more information if anyone else is interested in this slightly arcane issue. But I do think it is very conceivable that Labour might win the most seats without winning the most votes, so we need to take care what we are betting on!
I have been looking at the betting on the Europe election and I have followed the advice of our OGH to some extent. However there is an issue that is troubling me, before I go in big, which is as follows: there are two different markets, one on the most votes and one on the most seats. They are not the same bet, because of the regional list system , and if it is as close as OGH suggests, there is a strong possibility that the results could be different winners on each market, or perhaps even more likely, that the seat result could be a tie. I don't know whether anyone else has looked at this, but I would be interested to post more information if anyone else is interested in this slightly arcane issue. But I do think it is very conceivable that Labour might win the most seats without winning the most votes, so we need to take care what we are betting on!
Our regional list system means that smaller parties tend to lose out from an otherwise fairly proportional result, so the big 3 (in this context Lab/Con/UKIP) will get more seats than their share of the votes would suggest. However, it would be an oddly skewed result if a party got most seats and not most votes.
Easterross I doubt it will have changed any minds, Farage came across as a saloon bar populist, speaking up for the silent majority and popular with the likes of Rod Liddle, Simon Heffer and Kelvin Mackenzie, while the intellectual elite and metropolitan dwellers see him as backwards, uncouth and in the words of Yasmin Alibhai Brown UKIP is even 'dangerous'
Someone speaking up for the silent majority? Whatever next?
People are heartily sick of so called intellectuals deciding what is best for them, the same fools who told us we would all go to hell in a handcart if we didn't join the Euro.
It's now officially 2 years since the Tories got a single lead in an opinion poll
NO government since the 1970s has EVER trailed in the polls for two unbroken years and gone onto win re-election*
(Thatcher in the 1979-83 parliament narrowly avoided being behind for 2 unbroken years with one solitary poll in early 1981 which gave the Tories a 0.5% lead)
It's now officially 2 years since the Tories got a single lead in an opinion poll
NO government since the 1970s has EVER trailed in the polls for two unbroken years and gone onto win re-election*
(Thatcher in the 1979-83 parliament narrowly avoided being behind for 2 unbroken years with one solitary poll in early 1981 which gave the Tories a 0.5% lead)
It's now officially 2 years since the Tories got a single lead in an opinion poll
NO government since the 1970s has EVER trailed in the polls for two unbroken years and gone onto win re-election*
(Thatcher in the 1979-83 parliament narrowly avoided being behind for 2 unbroken years with one solitary poll in early 1981 which gave the Tories a 0.5% lead)
402 days including today. Therefore the 400 day mark is a Wednesday.
Now today we have YouGov and Populus both with a lead of 3. So a bit above the 1's and 2's we saw soon after the Budget but still well below the previous steady state of just over 5.5.
I have now read the big UKIP 'out of the EU' piece. I'm afraid Dr North's piece is the better one: not least because it confines itself to a single hypothesis, and doesn't meander all over the place.
There were several places in the UKIP piece where I found myself groaning: for example, there's a section about the EFTA trade surplus with the EU. Not a bad point, in itself, but to fail to mention that the reason for the surplus is due to - pretty much in its entirety - Norway's exports of oil & gas to the EU suggests either lazy research, or a desire to politically point score over making sensible and substantive economic points. I would also take issue with the idea that the former British commonwealth (which is, let us not forget, completely dominated in terms of population numbers by India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) could take over the role of the EU as trading partners. Those governments have (by and large and excepting where the IMF has had an unusually positive influence) being captured by producer interests; Pakistan has a theoretical free trade agreement with China (and that is pretty much Pakistan's only FRA), but it is free in name only. The idea that historic members of the commonwealth rush to join a new FTA - with genuinely free trade - is (unfortunately) a fiction.
Despite these criticisms, there is some good stuff in there. UKIP is absolutely right that there is no possibility of penal sanctions, and those who suggest that somehow UK trade with the EU would cease are talking absolute rubbish. It is essentially certain that we would conclude a free trade agreement with the EU without any problems post-Brexit.
However, my final conclusion - from a textual point of view - is that the document needs serious editing. It should be 10 pages, not 91. It also needs greater coherence between its summary and its contents (some bullet points at the front go basically unmentioned in the next 80 pages). And it should skip on much of the polemics: the facts are worth sharing without the lazy straw-manninng,
Agreed with almost all of that. For me the big disappointment was that after 91 pages it really failed to give any clear idea of what UKIP plans as the post exit strategy. The apparent but not explicit rejection of EFTA membership seems to be snuck in in the hope no one will notice it.
Clip of Sir Archibald Sinclair too, the extremely well dressed, dapper former Liberal leader who led his party into their last coalition with the Tories
Meanwhile those who think that it doesn't matter if we get landed with Ed Miliband as PM should read item 4.
Still, at least Hollande has at last reached the stage where he admits he got everything 100% wrong, although it remains to be seen whether that now translates into belated action:
In a short televised address on Monday, President Hollande said France had to put right its public finances, acknowledging it was time for change.
He proposed a reduction in taxes and worker contributions to spur job creation. "We are in this for the long haul," he said.
Miliband has so much misplaced self-belief that I don't think he'd ever get even to that first stage of admitting the problem; you'd need to wait for a Labour regicide, which on past form could be a very long wait.
Oh dear, the man who a year ago was telling us a currency union was "desirable" and "logical", who then dreamed up the idea of the Osballs & Alexander 'definitely no currency union' show and is currently suggesting that there could be an rUK referendum on something that he says isn't going to happen, seems to be lurching from inconsistent pillar to disastrous post.
'Darling disowned over sterling union ‘plebiscite’
Downing Street was on Monday forced to disown comments from Alistair Darling, head of the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK, after he suggested there could be a second referendum on whether Westminster shares the pound..'
Oh dear, the man who a year ago was telling us a currency union was "desirable" and "logical", who then dreamed up the idea of the Osballs & Alexander 'definitely no currency union' show and is currently suggesting that there could be an rUK referendum on something that he says isn't going to happen, seems to be lurching from inconsistent pillar to disastrous post.
'Darling disowned over sterling union ‘plebiscite’
Downing Street was on Monday forced to disown comments from Alistair Darling, head of the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK, after he suggested there could be a second referendum on whether Westminster shares the pound..'
James Whale @THEJamesWhale 15m Watching #channel4 @Nigel_Farage Eye opening into the the workings of the #EU or should that be "The New World Order"?
Gary Williams @Godfather83Gw 20m @Nigel_Farage I've been following you and ukip for a fair few years now and it just gets better and better. Hat's off to you.
David Buik @truemagic68 22m Nigel Farage is utterly illuminating about the totally undemocratic status of the European Union on Channel 4! Totally brilliant exposure!
Daniel Steadman @DanSteadman84 21m @nigel_farage watching C4 and really enjoying it! Relateable and entertaining #ukip #whoareyou
Pirate Bob: Yaaar! @AhmedTheCat 9m The problem for #UKIP haters is, Farage comes across as a decent and likeable bloke. Unlike Cameron, Clegg, and Miliband...
I could go on; massive response from the program. PBers who missed it, should watch it and learn.
Both LibDems and UKIP above trend there - perhaps a delayed debate effect? Labour still persistently in the 37-40 range in YG, as for the last year.
FFS. Tell us more about Labour "resilience". 18 months ago you were recording leads around 10 points. Now your lead seems to be around 2-4 points. The trend is stark.
Add in to that, the now rather grave danger that Labour will lose Scotland, its heartland, in the referendum, and Labour are staring directly into the abyss.
If you win re-election you will be the Member for Idiotic Complacency (north).
You're talking about leads. I'm talking about share. The Tories have recovered by several points. Labour's share is unchanged.
If I win re-election then by definition I'll be the Member for Accurate Prognosis (Central). You, however, will be Wealthy Travel Writer either way. To each his own.
Why on earth should Better Together step back from one of the most powerful reasons to stay within the UK, especially when its also one of the weakest areas for Alex Salmond and his chums in the Yes campaign?! I don't know about you, but I kinda really want to know what kind of currency/fiscal gamble Scotland would be undertaking if it was to vote for Independence.
Oh dear, the man who a year ago was telling us a currency union was "desirable" and "logical", who then dreamed up the idea of the Osballs & Alexander 'definitely no currency union' show and is currently suggesting that there could be an rUK referendum on something that he says isn't going to happen, seems to be lurching from inconsistent pillar to disastrous post.
'Darling disowned over sterling union ‘plebiscite’
Downing Street was on Monday forced to disown comments from Alistair Darling, head of the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK, after he suggested there could be a second referendum on whether Westminster shares the pound..'
Both LibDems and UKIP above trend there - perhaps a delayed debate effect? Labour still persistently in the 37-40 range in YG, as for the last year.
FFS. Tell us more about Labour "resilience". 18 months ago you were recording leads around 10 points. Now your lead seems to be around 2-4 points. The trend is stark.
Add in to that, the now rather grave danger that Labour will lose Scotland, its heartland, in the referendum, and Labour are staring directly into the abyss.
If you win re-election you will be the Member for Idiotic Complacency (north).
You're talking about leads. I'm talking about share. The Tories have recovered by several points. Labour's share is unchanged.
If I win re-election then by definition I'll be the Member for Accurate Prognosis (Central). You, however, will be Wealthy Travel Writer either way. To each his own.
If you win re-election but Scotland is lost then you'll be an MP for about a year.
Every single Labour MP or PPC should be in Scotland, campaigning, every week. Shadow ministers should be there passionately persuading the Scots the good reasons to stay, on a daily basis. Labour should be pouring money and energy into defeating the SNP in September, because it is Labour voters that will swing this plebiscite. Yet you don't do this. It is quite bizarre.
If you win or lose the GE in 2015 you can shrug your shoulders and look forward to a rematch in 2020. If you lose Scotland, you are permanently crippled.
Fact: England went Labour in 1997 (seats and votes) Fact: England went Labour in 2001 (seats and votes) Fact: Scotland has only a few more Labour seats than London.
Oh dear, the man who a year ago was telling us a currency union was "desirable" and "logical", who then dreamed up the idea of the Osballs & Alexander 'definitely no currency union' show and is currently suggesting that there could be an rUK referendum on something that he says isn't going to happen, seems to be lurching from inconsistent pillar to disastrous post.
'Darling disowned over sterling union ‘plebiscite’
Downing Street was on Monday forced to disown comments from Alistair Darling, head of the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK, after he suggested there could be a second referendum on whether Westminster shares the pound..'
Blinky is sounding more than a touch deranged these days. When even Cameron and Osbrowne are having to distance themselves from him you know that it's only the swivel-eyed loons who can't grasp the obvious.
Both LibDems and UKIP above trend there - perhaps a delayed debate effect? Labour still persistently in the 37-40 range in YG, as for the last year.
FFS. Tell us more about Labour "resilience". 18 months ago you were recording leads around 10 points. Now your lead seems to be around 2-4 points. The trend is stark.
Add in to that, the now rather grave danger that Labour will lose Scotland, its heartland, in the referendum, and Labour are staring directly into the abyss.
If you win re-election you will be the Member for Idiotic Complacency (north).
You're talking about leads. I'm talking about share. The Tories have recovered by several points. Labour's share is unchanged.
If I win re-election then by definition I'll be the Member for Accurate Prognosis (Central). You, however, will be Wealthy Travel Writer either way. To each his own.
If you win re-election but Scotland is lost then you'll be an MP for about a year.
Every single Labour MP or PPC should be in Scotland, campaigning, every week. Shadow ministers should be there passionately persuading the Scots the good reasons to stay, on a daily basis. Labour should be pouring money and energy into defeating the SNP in September, because it is Labour voters that will swing this plebiscite. Yet you don't do this. It is quite bizarre.
If you win or lose the GE in 2015 you can shrug your shoulders and look forward to a rematch in 2020. If you lose Scotland, you are permanently crippled.
Fact: England went Labour in 1997 (seats and votes) Fact: England went Labour in 2001 (seats and votes) Fact: Scotland has only a few more Labour seats than London.
Labour can win without Scotland, but it makes their job very much harder given how few MPs the Tories are ever likely to get in Scotland now beyond the one they currently hold. They should be much more obviously fighting like mad to keep it, but it is not apparent, and we are beyond the stage they should be campaigning quietly. Therefore, I can only conclude either the Scottish labour leadership are inept idiots, or the party in Scotland is too split on the issue to properly fight against the Yes side.
I do not think so, It is best to leave it to SLAB.
If Merkel or Hollande started campaigning for BOO, how would that go down?
The BT campaign, and other Unionists should just make clear what independence looks like, then it is up to Scots to make their choice. Unlike Jane Mulcahy's advisors in 19, it should be clear that divorce means divorce.
If Scots then want to be ruled by the bluffing and blustering Salmond, then so be it.
Both LibDems and UKIP above trend there - perhaps a delayed debate effect? Labour still persistently in the 37-40 range in YG, as for the last year.
FFS. Tell us more about Labour "resilience". 18 months ago you were recording leads around 10 points. Now your lead seems to be around 2-4 points. The trend is stark.
Add in to that, the now rather grave danger that Labour will lose Scotland, its heartland, in the referendum, and Labour are staring directly into the abyss.
If you win re-election you will be the Member for Idiotic Complacency (north).
You're talking about leads. I'm talking about share. The Tories have recovered by several points. Labour's share is unchanged.
If I win re-election then by definition I'll be the Member for Accurate Prognosis (Central). You, however, will be Wealthy Travel Writer either way. To each his own.
If you win re-election but Scotland is lost then you'll be an MP for about a year.
Every single Labour MP or PPC should be in Scotland, campaigning, every week. Shadow ministers should be there passionately persuading the Scots the good reasons to stay, on a daily basis. Labour should be pouring money and energy into defeating the SNP in September, because it is Labour voters that will swing this plebiscite. Yet you don't do this. It is quite bizarre.
If you win or lose the GE in 2015 you can shrug your shoulders and look forward to a rematch in 2020. If you lose Scotland, you are permanently crippled.
Both LibDems and UKIP above trend there - perhaps a delayed debate effect? Labour still persistently in the 37-40 range in YG, as for the last year.
FFS. Tell us more about Labour "resilience". 18 months ago you were recording leads around 10 points. Now your lead seems to be around 2-4 points. The trend is stark.
Add in to that, the now rather grave danger that Labour will lose Scotland, its heartland, in the referendum, and Labour are staring directly into the abyss.
If you win re-election you will be the Member for Idiotic Complacency (north).
You're talking about leads. I'm talking about share. The Tories have recovered by several points. Labour's share is unchanged.
If I win re-election then by definition I'll be the Member for Accurate Prognosis (Central). You, however, will be Wealthy Travel Writer either way. To each his own.
If you win re-election but Scotland is lost then you'll be an MP for about a year.
Every single Labour MP or PPC should be in Scotland, campaigning, every week. Shadow ministers should be there passionately persuading the Scots the good reasons to stay, on a daily basis. Labour should be pouring money and energy into defeating the SNP in September, because it is Labour voters that will swing this plebiscite. Yet you don't do this. It is quite bizarre.
If you win or lose the GE in 2015 you can shrug your shoulders and look forward to a rematch in 2020. If you lose Scotland, you are permanently crippled.
Fact: England went Labour in 1997 (seats and votes) Fact: England went Labour in 2001 (seats and votes) Fact: Scotland has only a few more Labour seats than London.
Dull. I refer you to my blog, which proves that losing Scotland, for Labour, is way more than just Losing the Seats.
Twitter Neil Henderson @hendopolis 32m DAILY MAIL: How police waged a 'guerrilla war' on ministers #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oB7W5zEnsY
After gay marriage has become law, a hilarious episode of 'Rev' tonight, with Tom Hollander's character trying to give a blessing in church to gay friends without saying the word 'marriage'
Our regional list system means that smaller parties tend to lose out from an otherwise fairly proportional result, so the big 3 (in this context Lab/Con/UKIP) will get more seats than their share of the votes would suggest. However, it would be an oddly skewed result if a party got most seats and not most votes.
It's a constituency based system, and so like any such system it can deliver perverse results.
In this case
Differential turnout Malapportionment the D'Hondt counting system Variable district magnitude
may all conspire to produce nationally disproportional results, and that can include violation of rank order...
SeanT I don't think BoT has been that bad. NO still has a sizeable lead, and NO to AV was relentlessly negative and trounced the YES to AV camp!
The difference is the Yes to AV side was not as passionate or committed as the Yes to Independence side. Many really wanted to get rid of FPTP, but many others were not really sold on AV as the alternative, nor was it the alternative most on that side actually wanted, and so it seemed like they lacked the will to tackle the negative No to AV side with a similar level of ferocity.
Yes to Independence do not have that problem, nor did No to AV have to worry about making FPTP seem unattractive by being so negative - them being negative did not impact on the electoral system they supported, whereas No to Independence being so negative makes the rUK look less appealing.
One policy where I part company with UKIP is their wish to keep Scotland in the UK bosom.
For my part the further Scotland and JackW is away from me, the better. They can also keep their retched football league, together with the Celtic and Rangers supporters and drop them into the Firth of Forth
And after the boring rants of SeanT, appropo Scotland, drop him in too.
kle4 Really? The metropolitan liberals like Stephen Fry certainly seemed to be. But Yes to Indy's arguments seem pretty poor to, and at the end of the day emotion does not win referendum campaigns, nor does charisma because you are voting on 1 issue not for a PM OR government. I would also say those who want to keep the Union, with family ties across the border etc are also likely to be more passionate than those who want to keep FPTP.
kle4 Really? The metropolitan liberals like Stephen Fry certainly seemed to be. But Yes to Indy's arguments seem pretty poor to, and at the end of the day emotion does not win referendum campaigns, nor does charisma because you are voting on 1 issue not for a PM OR government. I would also say those who want to keep the Union, with family ties across the border etc are also likely to be more passionate than those who want to keep FPTP.
I would certainly hope so - though we haven't seen enough positive emotional heart pulling yet - I was more focusing on how Yes to Indy are a more formidible force than Yes to AV. In the absence of a good campaign by No, they could get by on emotion alone.
One policy where I part company with UKIP is their wish to keep Scotland in the UK bosom.
For my part the further Scotland and JackW is away from me, the better. They can also keep their retched football league, together with the Celtic and Rangers supporters and drop them into the Firth of Forth
And after the boring rants of SeanT, appropo Scotland, drop him in too.
Are kippers not allowed to spell à propos properly because of that nasty foreign accent on the a?
One policy where I part company with UKIP is their wish to keep Scotland in the UK bosom.
For my part the further Scotland and JackW is away from me, the better. They can also keep their retched football league, together with the Celtic and Rangers supporters and drop them into the Firth of Forth
And after the boring rants of SeanT, appropo Scotland, drop him in too.
Are kippers not allowed to spell à propos properly because of that nasty foreign accent on the a?
Yes, terribly infra dig of me to add a p and leave the s out.
kle4 If the NO campaign go on emotion it will be playing into Salmond's hands, he will bring out the bag pipes at Bannockburn with Sean Connery and the NO camp will be playing defence for the rest of the campaign. Cameron made a strong case for the Union at the Olympics site, but ultimately reason and logic and facts are the NO camp's best bet, and Scots are extremely tight with money as we all know, so financial arguments have strong weight
kle4 If the NO campaign go on emotion it will be playing into Salmond's hands, he will bring out the bag pipes at Bannockburn with Sean Connery and the NO camp will be playing defence for the rest of the campaign. Cameron made a strong case for the Union at the Olympics site, but ultimately reason and logic and facts are the NO camp's best bet, and Scots are extremely tight with money as we all know, so financial arguments have strong weight
I'm not saying NO should be only emotion, they need facts as well - I just don't think there's been enough emotion so far, notwithstanding Cameron's contribution to that effect. The arguments of YES need to be countered or undermined, but if people are reluctantly choosing NO as a least worst option, it's just kicking the issue down the road for a few years.
SeanT I don't think BoT has been that bad. NO still has a sizeable lead, and NO to AV was relentlessly negative and trounced the YES to AV camp!
The difference is the Yes to AV side was not as passionate or committed as the Yes to Independence side. Many really wanted to get rid of FPTP, but many others were not really sold on AV as the alternative, nor was it the alternative most on that side actually wanted, and so it seemed like they lacked the will to tackle the negative No to AV side with a similar level of ferocity.
Yes to Independence do not have that problem, nor did No to AV have to worry about making FPTP seem unattractive by being so negative - them being negative did not impact on the electoral system they supported, whereas No to Independence being so negative makes the rUK look less appealing.
Let's not forget that not only was Yes to AV leading months out but that the big massive negative No to AV concentrated on was one Nick Clegg. Well guess which side Clegg's on for Independence and he's joined by Cammie, Osbrowne and little Ed. A wealth of 'talent' indeed and one bound to be trusted by the scottish public.
You are of course also quite correct that those who know very little about the campaign on the ground in scotland are going to be in for one hell of a shock in the final few weeks of the campaign when GOTV and differential turnout will be an enormous factor. We're already seeing No being heavily outgunned with the sheer numbers of meetings, volunteers and fundraising across scotland.
It's also vastly amusing to see the comical pronouncements from those who still don't realise that after all their shrieking about currency it shot up from almost last and 8th place in the rankings of issues the scottish public found most important, to a heady 8th place.
kle4 Any NO win over 10% (which is roughly where most polls are, the Times last week had a 15 point lead) would kill off independence for a generation or more. It is actually YES who need to make the running!
kle4 Any NO win over 10% (which is roughly where most polls are, the Times last week had a 15 point lead) would kill off independence for a generation or more. It is actually YES who need to make the running!
I wish I believed that, but I'm naturally pessimistic. I think as crunch time arrives Yes will have the momentum. Then again I thought Liverpool would run out of steam, and yet things are looking promising there. Keeping the UK together and Liverpool winning the league? Would make this a very good year. Fingers crossed.
MickPork Clegg has nothing to do with the NO camp really, Darling is leading it, with Cameron and Galloway effectively supporting him, Clegg was de facto spokesman for Yes to AV and in any case he was not the deciding factor.
The idea that there will be a low turnout for the most important decision in Scotland for a generation is wishful thinking by Yes on a massive scale, and will give a NO win even more legitimacy!
If the result is a solid no, then the Westminster Labour party have just wasted another year when they should be reconnecting with their heartlands. The complacency of the current Labour party towards Scotland in the last few years may yet cost them dear at the next GE in a tight race to come out as the largest party or with a majority. If the Labour vote is down on 2010 figure in Scotland at the next GE in those many nailed on safe seats, then I wouldn't bet against some unwinding of the anti-Tory tactical vote in a handful of seats where it might really matter either.
I don't think the Westminster Labour party have done anywhere near enough to motivate Labour voters up here to turn out in the numbers they did in 2010. Its worth remembering that the last very tight GE back in 1992 saw Labour lose its only seat to the Conservatives in Scotland. And the big unknown up here at the next GE is going to be the Libdem performance and turnout, I wonder how many of those Libdems voters have in the distance past voted Conservative rather than Labour up here? What ever happens with the Libdem vote share up here, I suspect the main beneficiaries will be the SNP or the Conservatives in the seats where it may matter if it does drop substantially. And this is despite what the current UK wide polls are telling us about Libdem switchers.
And a PS to all those doom and gloom merchants on here who are predicting a Yes vote despite the polls and ongoing political campaigns. Just think about the fact that every Scots No voter will know a Malcolmg or Mick Pork who is using the same love bombing techniques on them to try and woo over them over to the Yes camp......
kle4 Any NO win over 10% (which is roughly where most polls are, the Times last week had a 15 point lead) would kill off independence for a generation or more. It is actually YES who need to make the running!
Taco Bell are entering the breakfast fast food market, long dominated by McDonalds.
Their advertising has come up with an inspired move - they show several different men, all of whom are named Ronald McDonald, sampling and enjoying the Taco Bell breakfast fare.
Fitalass Agreed, what an irony if Scotland votes NO and then swings slightly to the Tories in 2015 (remember Brown was a Scot, and Cameron is actually more Scottish than Miliband)
MickPork Clegg has nothing to do with the NO camp really, Darling is leading it, with Cameron and Galloway effectively supporting him, Clegg was de facto spokesman for Yes to AV and in any case he was not the deciding factor.
You might have been paying attention elsewhere but I assure you No to AV made damn sure Clegg was as deciding a factor as they could.
Clegg opines about independence almost as much as Cammie and Osbrowne but then some are actually deluded enough to think Cammie is an asset to the Yes campaign. That must by why he's too scared to debate it properly with Salmond. Also, where did you get the amusing idea that Galloway was in any way central to No? He's very much fringe and has only popped up on TV once or twice.
Darling was being briefed against by tories a while back for his lacklustre and dull Private Frazer impersonation. At least that wasn't Downing Street that was doing so but a few disgruntled tories. Tonight Downing Street is distancing themselves from Darling. Think that's because he's such a terrific asset do you?
The idea that there will be a low turnout for the most important decision in Scotland for a generation is wishful thinking by Yes on a massive scale, and will give a NO win even more legitimacy!
If you don't understand some of the differential turnout polling already produced or that negative campaigning depresses turnout, particularly for those doing it, then would be entirely your problem.
Just think about the fact that every Scots No voter will know a Malcolmg or Mick Pork who is using the same love bombing techniques on them to try and woo over them over to the Yes camp......
Whereas they could have a scottish tory surger attempting to woo them if only the old biddies could be bothered? Because that would definitely work what with more Pandas than scottish tory MPs.
Just think about the fact that every Scots No voter will know a Malcolmg or Mick Pork who is using the same love bombing techniques on them to try and woo over them over to the Yes camp......
Whereas they could have a scottish tory surger attempting to woo them if only the old biddies could be bothered? Because that would definitely work what with more Pandas than scottish tory MPs.
LOL
Well there aren't any Scottish Tories, so they have nothing to worry about do they.
Mick Pork Yes, but that was NO to AV Clegg has basically nothing to do with Scottish Independence or the Union. Galloway has been holding meeting after meeting across Scotland banging the drum for the union and has actually done more meetings than Salmond, Darling of course will be facing Salmond in any debate, not Cameron. Downing Street has not got a clue about what goes down well in Scotland, the dour Darling is far more attuned to Scots' sensibilities and can take on Salmond on the facts!
MickPork As far as I can see after the NO camp still has a sizeable lead, so negative campaigning is hardly damping its vote to badly is it! After wall to wall coverage by polling day the vast majority of Scots will turn out, they are only beginning to tune in now
A vapid posturing waste of space tries yet more tedious differentiation nonsense for the gullible.
George Osborne 'Too Preoccupied' With The Rich, Warns Nick Clegg
Nick Clegg has lashed out at Tory ministers for being "too preoccupied" with the rich and accused chancellor George Osborne of trying to "steal" credit for the Lib Dem policy of raising the income tax threshold.
"I said I don't like him, I wouldn't trust him, wouldn't want to live in his country. But compared with the kids who run foreign policy in this country I have got more respect for him than our lot."
Comments
Farage on Channel 4 is a hit:
James Whale @THEJamesWhale 15m
Watching #channel4 @Nigel_Farage Eye opening into the the workings of the #EU or should that be "The New World Order"?
Gary Williams @Godfather83Gw 20m
@Nigel_Farage I've been following you and ukip for a fair few years now and it just gets better and better. Hat's off to you.
David Buik @truemagic68 22m
Nigel Farage is utterly illuminating about the totally undemocratic status of the European Union on Channel 4! Totally brilliant exposure!
Daniel Steadman @DanSteadman84 21m
@nigel_farage watching C4 and really enjoying it! Relateable and entertaining #ukip #whoareyou
Pirate Bob: Yaaar! @AhmedTheCat 9m
The problem for #UKIP haters is, Farage comes across as a decent and likeable bloke. Unlike Cameron, Clegg, and Miliband...
I could go on; massive response from the program. PBers who missed it, should watch it and learn.
Went to Plumpton this afternoon - saw the Princess Royal, couldn't back a winner.
At Oban, we hired a car but also did the steam train from Fort William to Mallaig via Glenfinnan (not the best of days weather-wise).We also went over to Iona but didn't see the Abbey - had a delightful lunch with a lovely lady who took us all in and provided a sumptuous lunch and such good company we nearly missed the ferry back.
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_membership_crashes_through_35_000
So how many PBers will be ripping up a Q1 crossover betting slip in about an hour's time?
There were several places in the UKIP piece where I found myself groaning: for example, there's a section about the EFTA trade surplus with the EU. Not a bad point, in itself, but to fail to mention that the reason for the surplus is due to - pretty much in its entirety - Norway's exports of oil & gas to the EU suggests either lazy research, or a desire to politically point score over making sensible and substantive economic points. I would also take issue with the idea that the former British commonwealth (which is, let us not forget, completely dominated in terms of population numbers by India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) could take over the role of the EU as trading partners. Those governments have (by and large and excepting where the IMF has had an unusually positive influence) being captured by producer interests; Pakistan has a theoretical free trade agreement with China (and that is pretty much Pakistan's only FRA), but it is free in name only. The idea that historic members of the commonwealth rush to join a new FTA - with genuinely free trade - is (unfortunately) a fiction.
Despite these criticisms, there is some good stuff in there. UKIP is absolutely right that there is no possibility of penal sanctions, and those who suggest that somehow UK trade with the EU would cease are talking absolute rubbish. It is essentially certain that we would conclude a free trade agreement with the EU without any problems post-Brexit.
However, my final conclusion - from a textual point of view - is that the document needs serious editing. It should be 10 pages, not 91. It also needs greater coherence between its summary and its contents (some bullet points at the front go basically unmentioned in the next 80 pages). And it should skip on much of the polemics: the facts are worth sharing without the lazy straw-manninng,
I'm pretty sure Rod has previously posted on the discrepancy between seats / votes in the Euros (and came to the same conclusion you have). If he's around he might repost the numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26827898
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593556/Frances-Socialist-PM-entire-government-quit-following-electoral-meltdown-Hollande-set-hand-job-interior-minister-Manuel-Valls.html
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead at three points: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead at three points: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%
People are heartily sick of so called intellectuals deciding what is best for them, the same fools who told us we would all go to hell in a handcart if we didn't join the Euro.
NO government since the 1970s has EVER trailed in the polls for two unbroken years and gone onto win re-election*
(Thatcher in the 1979-83 parliament narrowly avoided being behind for 2 unbroken years with one solitary poll in early 1981 which gave the Tories a 0.5% lead)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
YouGov average leads in 2 week blocks so far this year:
Week 1+2 - 6.1
Week 3+4 - 5.3
Week 5+6 - 5.6
Week 7+8 - 5.6
week 9+10 - 5.7
So first 10 weeks position essentially dead flat. Then:
Week 11 (Budget week) - 4.6
Week 12 (Last week) - 3.0
Now today we have YouGov and Populus both with a lead of 3. So a bit above the 1's and 2's we saw soon after the Budget but still well below the previous steady state of just over 5.5.
Presumably the lawyers in item 19 are the same ones who are failing to advise the SNP that independence wouldn't mean independence?
Just commenting on the numbers. I make no further comment.
Still, at least Hollande has at last reached the stage where he admits he got everything 100% wrong, although it remains to be seen whether that now translates into belated action:
In a short televised address on Monday, President Hollande said France had to put right its public finances, acknowledging it was time for change.
He proposed a reduction in taxes and worker contributions to spur job creation. "We are in this for the long haul," he said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26826292
Miliband has so much misplaced self-belief that I don't think he'd ever get even to that first stage of admitting the problem; you'd need to wait for a Labour regicide, which on past form could be a very long wait.
'Darling disowned over sterling union ‘plebiscite’
Downing Street was on Monday forced to disown comments from Alistair Darling, head of the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK, after he suggested there could be a second referendum on whether Westminster shares the pound..'
http://tinyurl.com/nday8t8
Time for an 'Al is crap' thread?
Words fail me.
If I win re-election then by definition I'll be the Member for Accurate Prognosis (Central). You, however, will be Wealthy Travel Writer either way. To each his own.
Fact: England went Labour in 2001 (seats and votes)
Fact: Scotland has only a few more Labour seats than London.
If Merkel or Hollande started campaigning for BOO, how would that go down?
The BT campaign, and other Unionists should just make clear what independence looks like, then it is up to Scots to make their choice. Unlike Jane Mulcahy's advisors in 19, it should be clear that divorce means divorce.
If Scots then want to be ruled by the bluffing and blustering Salmond, then so be it.
You live in a poncy part of London writing poncy blogs for a poncy newspaper read by poncy people
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 32m
DAILY MAIL: How police waged a 'guerrilla war' on ministers #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/oB7W5zEnsY
In this case
Differential turnout
Malapportionment
the D'Hondt counting system
Variable district magnitude
may all conspire to produce nationally disproportional results, and that can include violation of rank order...
Yes to Independence do not have that problem, nor did No to AV have to worry about making FPTP seem unattractive by being so negative - them being negative did not impact on the electoral system they supported, whereas No to Independence being so negative makes the rUK look less appealing.
For my part the further Scotland and JackW is away from me, the better. They can also keep their retched football league, together with the Celtic and Rangers supporters and drop them into the Firth of Forth
And after the boring rants of SeanT, appropo Scotland, drop him in too.
You are of course also quite correct that those who know very little about the campaign on the ground in scotland are going to be in for one hell of a shock in the final few weeks of the campaign when GOTV and differential turnout will be an enormous factor. We're already seeing No being heavily outgunned with the sheer numbers of meetings, volunteers and fundraising across scotland.
It's also vastly amusing to see the comical pronouncements from those who still don't realise that after all their shrieking about currency it shot up from almost last and 8th place in the rankings of issues the scottish public found most important, to a heady 8th place.
*chortle*
Breitbart News @BreitbartNews
'Vast Majority' of Romney Donors Want Jeb Bush Run in 2016: A "vast majority" of Mitt Romney donors, establish... http://bit.ly/P6wPdp
Hard to believe there could be something even more amusing than the last GOP circus and the Romneyshambles, but another Bush would certainly qualify.
Night all.
The idea that there will be a low turnout for the most important decision in Scotland for a generation is wishful thinking by Yes on a massive scale, and will give a NO win even more legitimacy!
I don't think the Westminster Labour party have done anywhere near enough to motivate Labour voters up here to turn out in the numbers they did in 2010. Its worth remembering that the last very tight GE back in 1992 saw Labour lose its only seat to the Conservatives in Scotland. And the big unknown up here at the next GE is going to be the Libdem performance and turnout, I wonder how many of those Libdems voters have in the distance past voted Conservative rather than Labour up here? What ever happens with the Libdem vote share up here, I suspect the main beneficiaries will be the SNP or the Conservatives in the seats where it may matter if it does drop substantially. And this is despite what the current UK wide polls are telling us about Libdem switchers.
And a PS to all those doom and gloom merchants on here who are predicting a Yes vote despite the polls and ongoing political campaigns. Just think about the fact that every Scots No voter will know a Malcolmg or Mick Pork who is using the same love bombing techniques on them to try and woo over them over to the Yes camp......
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593183/Barely-quarter-Tory-voters-think-David-Cameron-touch-normal-people-think-gets-early-leaders.html
Their advertising has come up with an inspired move - they show several different men, all of whom are named Ronald McDonald, sampling and enjoying the Taco Bell breakfast fare.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKAcOawiaNk
You might have been paying attention elsewhere but I assure you No to AV made damn sure Clegg was as deciding a factor as they could.
http://chimerapapers.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/no2av-clegg.jpeg
Clegg opines about independence almost as much as Cammie and Osbrowne but then some are actually deluded enough to think Cammie is an asset to the Yes campaign. That must by why he's too scared to debate it properly with Salmond. Also, where did you get the amusing idea that Galloway was in any way central to No? He's very much fringe and has only popped up on TV once or twice.
Darling was being briefed against by tories a while back for his lacklustre and dull Private Frazer impersonation. At least that wasn't Downing Street that was doing so but a few disgruntled tories. Tonight Downing Street is distancing themselves from Darling. Think that's because he's such a terrific asset do you? If you don't understand some of the differential turnout polling already produced or that negative campaigning depresses turnout, particularly for those doing it, then would be entirely your problem.
LOL
George Osborne 'Too Preoccupied' With The Rich, Warns Nick Clegg
Nick Clegg has lashed out at Tory ministers for being "too preoccupied" with the rich and accused chancellor George Osborne of trying to "steal" credit for the Lib Dem policy of raising the income tax threshold.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/31/nick-clegg-george-osborne-rich_n_5061276.html
Yet curiously no sign of calamity Clegg and his missing spine actually stopping Osbrowne.
Funny that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/31/ukip-nigel-farage-bnp_n_5062951.html
"I said I don't like him, I wouldn't trust him, wouldn't want to live in his country. But compared with the kids who run foreign policy in this country I have got more respect for him than our lot."