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Who will get the blame for this? Labour or Trump or both? – politicalbetting.com
Who will get the blame for this? Labour or Trump or both? – politicalbetting.com
Bombshell new poll from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social shows economic optimism at its lowest level we have EVER seen.Remember – Ipsos have been recording this since 1978!So economic optimism now lower than during winter of discontent, financial crash or Covid. www.thetimes.com/article/8b29…
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Russia's mantra is that if any part of Russia is attacked, they'll go nuclear. QED just call the parts of Ukraine it wants as Russian and get Trump to agree (with a nuclear gun to his head).
Unlike Labour's incompetence, which is plain for everybody to see.
Trump probably hasn't helped much, but this is almost entirely home-grown.
Radical idea, but you can’t cut your way to economic growth. I think we’ve tested that nonsense into the ground. And yet here she is, demanding growth whilst cutting to reduce the flow of money circulating through the economy…
GDP growth surprised on the upside at 0.5% in February, and Retail sales were up in March by more than forecast too.
That was before Trumps Tariffs Tantrum of course, but also the fine weather has kept up and I reckon retailers and construction had a good April too.
*) It is so obviously blackmail, that it means any nuclear-capable power can just invade and annex territory and use the same argument.
*) They've said it throughout the war, and did not use nukes even when Kursk was invaded.
*) Nukes would give Russia zero tactical or strategic advantage, and many disadvantages.
In terms of turnout , if that’s high it could spell problems for the LPC . Abacus Data showed the CPC with a 2 point lead if those less likely to vote do turnout .
Not enough to win though because of the issues around voter efficiency . The uncertainty with the election is more in relation to whether the LPC can get a majority . It would take a big polling miss for them to not be the largest party .
Although Atlantic Canada is normally very good for the Libs there are still some more competitive bellwether ridings that might give an early indication as to the direction of travel .
Don’t forget we have got Angela Rayner’s workers rights bill to come soon which won’t help.
Certainly wasn't bondegezou's.
1) Reform voters are Tory voters, so whatever the polls say they will come back
2) Reform MPs are like children who will be able to be managed by the grown-up Tory MPs. HY often talks about how Kemi would be in real power because she would get to choose to put Farage into Downing Street
3) PB Tory obsessions with woke is what all right-thinking people are obsessed with, so Well Done Kemi for sticking it to Starmer about penises. Its all that voters are talking about.
Political revolutions rarely happen overnight, and the Tory party is still alive and well in pockets across the UK. But politically? Nationally? It's been replaced by Reform - and pb.com Tories are in denial.
Usually at this stage of the political cycle the vanquished party would have refreshed itself and be plugging away with a new message to undermine the failings of the new government. Not this time. Kemi is fighting Wokewars - which real people aren't interested in. Farage is fighting Labour on public services and cost of living and the general feeling that Britain is crap.
Since hiring Kristina Wong from Breitbart News as the Secretary of the Navy Communications Director this week, the
@SECNAV account has twice posted the incorrect date of the bombing of Pearl Harbor, “a date which will live in infamy.”
https://x.com/travisakers/status/1916560559849226687
The posts also show the SECNAV standing in front of the memorial, which prominently displays the date...
So, the squeeze of the last three years is continuing. They are not exactly full of the joys of May, and rightly so.
The damage from Trump’s shenanigans has been the market turmoil, including the rise in UK gilt yields which badly need to uncouple from the US.
Real terms pay is doing OK at the moment. The fundamentals for the worker aren’t bad, certainly much better than in 2022/3 at the height of the Ukraine inflation spike, but they’re still shit for government finances.
But psychologically, that's fine. Reform do promise things the Conservatives know they can't, and with a swagger that comes from never having been in government and so thinking it will all be easy. It was Johnson's appeal as well- ignore the doomsters and it will be brilliant.
MAGA woman learns the tax code she hates so much was actually signed into law by Trump—then blames Obama.
HOST: You didn’t like Biden & Harris tax code?
WOMAN: I did not.
HOST: Would you ever vote for it again?
WOMAN: No!
HOST: It was Trump’s tax code.
WOMAN: No! It was Obama's! It was Obama's!
https://x.com/LongTimeHistory/status/1916635276698415602
What would you actually cut to save that amount ?
I'm not saying it's impossible - look for example at the Greek retrenchment - but you need to be honest about the process.
(It's an unfortunate consequence of the human psyche, and the basic hack underpinning most contricks. Is there best practice for dealing with this sort of thing? In education, it boils down to gradual gentle repetition of points that undermine misconceptions, but that's quite slow and not very effective.)
That the two-party system is falling apart and many people have simply had enough with mainstream politics doesn't seem to occur to them.
The department store manager (who probably doesn't possess the skills required by that role)...
The craziest bit in the Time interview is Trump saying the US is like a "department store," where he personally sets "what I consider to be a fair price" that countries have to pay to do business with us.
https://x.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1916470732671877363
At yet, there's not really much more to be said.
People are not signing up on new projects. And that’s how recessions happen - the spending stops.
First business confidence goes. Then the actual projects stop. Then the hiring stops. Then actual firings occur. Consumer spending slows late in the cascade.
As to why - it’s a combination of non/anti growth policies by the government, combined with Trump. Total uncertainty on top of an already dull outlook.
Trump hit most nations initially with higher tariffs than the UK and even now UK tariffs are no higher than most nations face and far lower than China has
Basic reality - most voters are "low information". They don't know, they don't want to know. Which makes it very simple to chant slogans as if they were facts.
How do we combat it? Stop trying to blame and shame. It isn't the fault of the disinterested voter that they have been sucked in. Progressives need to paint a picture of the world these voters can engage with and propose solutions. Our problem is that blame and shame gives you that self-righteous glow...
Hence most polls have the Tories gaining about 30 seats net even as Reform gain about 150 seats net, mainly from Labour
Commentators need to just call a spade a spade . The vast majority of Maga are low information , low IQ trailer trash .
I wonder how the fat orange man feels about that?
How will it be paid for and will Reform argue that we don't need it (and weakening Europe in the longer term)
You need to sell a positive message of progress. Not a hair shirt of “You are guilty, by existing.”
Perhaps someone should explain that department stores have shut down and people shop on the internet now.
Gives Trump an off-ramp.
'I know, let's check them for autism and ADHD. Some kids have already been waiting for over a year for an assessment so we can lose the issue in the long grass.'
'Trebles all round!'
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1916544629815546035
There will be an increase in CGT in Jan 2026 because individuals were liquidating gains ahead of an expected rate rise.
Then there will be a drop in CGT take in Jan 2027 as those timing differences unwind.
And spending on the old and poor need to be cut.
And taxes on the rich and property need to rise.
Everyone needs to lose out, we all have to be seen to be 'in it together'.
Data - https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/april2025
The Tories really need to stop wibbling, and do some politics.
Truss to Sunak would have worked if Corbyn or Rebecca Long-Bailey had been opposition leader. It didn't work because Keir Starmer was a bland reassuring centrist.
Also, of course, sometimes the political & economic situation is just so bad that people want a change of government, no matter who is opposition leader.
I don't think that either Canada or Australia are currently in an economic situation where voters would vote for anyone who is leader of the opposition.
Regarding Canada, I think if Erin O'Toole hadn't been forced out from the Conservative leadership, then there would have been a significantly higher chance of a polling miss & a change in government. O'Toole is exactly the type of safe reassuring centrist whom people are comfortable electing as a new Prime Minister.
“Capital gains tax receipts fall 10% as wealthy exit UK”
The other way is to shutter Parliament for a decade to stop them passing new laws with a cost associated with them or if you have to have a Parliament, then get them to remove all the red tape that these laws generate (copyright Boris Johnson)
No matter which way you turn, it's been tried before with limited success. Belt tightening is only achieved with the agreement of the populace at large and good luck with that.
Just calling them cult members - however true, or satisfying - is not very productive.
No one is going to persuade or educate very many of them, but the effort has to be made.
I have to deal with this sort of journalistic agenda driven writing quite often, it’s quite common in tax articles, though it’s usually when the Telegraph are doing a piece.
Fascism doesn’t thrive in a happy place.
See also:
“Britain’s non-dom crackdown has become Reeves’s most costly mistake
Ultra-wealthy exodus is drying up an important revenue stream for the Treasury”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/28/britains-non-dom-crackdown-reevess-costly-mistake/
The stupid Tories started this with Hunt fecking around with non dom status, but now Rachel from Accounts has made it ten times worse
Who are these new candidates? We know there will be fruitcakes and loonies - FukUK attracts them and the party isn't able to vet them properly. We can also suspect there will be some genuinely interesting new people - older business types, younger more dynamic types. Not every Reform councillor will be mad or bad.
Some councils will have brilliant officers who will temper the mad and bad ones. Some won't. Others will get the genuinely interesting people into positions of power.
My point is that we would be unwise to just write off all the new councillors and administrations.
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/blackrock-larry-fink-uk-economy-keir-starmer-growth-b1224196.html
I'm frustrated by Treasury orthodoxy.
You're banging on about the deep state.
They've crashed the economy by ignoring the experts.
It's really too early to say how bad the economy is. I still think things will look very different in three years time. Whatever people think, Labour has a long time to turn things around, so really now is the best time for things to go badly as it gives the most amount of time for things to improve.
If the election was next year I'd be thinking differently.
Wealthy people may be leaving, but that stat doesn't tell you that because those receipts are for CGT prior to even a Labour Govt. You twit.
Honestly though, it feels like ONS needs to modernise some of their statistics. Surveys of businesses seem a little outdated... isn't it possible to just look at PAYE data or job adverts online with salaries?
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/apr/27/the-settlers-review-this-vital-film-forces-louis-theroux-to-do-something-hes-never-done-before
They can't out-fukk the Fukkers, particularly not with a perma-irked globalist DEI recruit at the helm.
The rise in CGT
The IHT changes (certainly major)
The attack on private schools
The fecking around with non-dom
I would add in
Broad demographic changes in London which have now gone beyond “interestingly diverse”, plus Brexit (I say that as a leaver), plus a general malaise in British life
Put it all together and it’s toxic for mobile elite people in London and the SE. They’re not here for the weather are they?
PB lefties talking about price rises
PB righties talking about pay rises
Now:
PB lefties talking about pay rises
PB righties talking about price rises
Public Sector Headcount - many layers of management could be cut and I'm sure there will be a few agencies we could merge / remove without issue. But in there we have stuff like the Passport Office, DVLA etc - and service from these is already dire. If you cut heads without reform you'll find the service collapses and that makes for unhappy voters.
Benefits - we already pay poverty-level numbers for practically everything. Compare our unemployment pay, our maternity pay, our sick pay - we get so little compared to our neighbours. If you cut these further you cut cash which directly recirculates through the local economy which means less businesses and less jobs.
And we pay a ludicrous amount of in-work support to people where their wages are insufficient to pay their bills. I'm happy to plan to abolish these subsidies to big business but you can't just cut them without a dire effect on the economy
Pensions? I take the point. Gold plated seems like an understatement for many of them. At the same time our state pension is very low compared to competitor economies close-by. I would look to rebalance as much as cut.
My challenge on all of this is that you can't cut provision and assume the demand goes away. Its not a zero sum game where you cut one side of the equation with zero cost added to the other side. Make a lot of people much poorer and you tank the economy - which creates many other problems.
Which is why wholesale reform is needed. Cutting our way to growth has been tried and it always fails. The system we have doesn't work, so we need to change the system.
Labour need to go a lot further on planning reform but they've made a good start. The Tories and Reform as best I can tell love NIMBYism or at least will do nothing to challenge it.
I am also confident they will go for zonal pricing which will make an impact on energy bills in some of the country where frankly it's ridiculous their bills aren't basically zero (i.e. Scotland).
Actually what’s happened so far is that some ultra high net worth individuals left after the non-dom changes were confirmed (though note they benefit from a transition period so they was no need to hurry). Nobody left based on expected CGT changes. The ultra rich don’t need to worry about that stuff.
I’m not arguing that tax isn’t price-elastic. I’m saying the CGT data this year have nothing to do with people leaving the country.
A cult involves an irrational, ingrained commitment which will not be shifted at all easily, or via rational means. It will not be unpicked easily.
Just as there is validity, but not complete coherence, in comparing Trump's regime to the lists of characteristics of a fascist movements that @viewcode (iirc) hates finds distatsteful, the same goes for those lists of characteristics of a cult.
I'd identify especially those around eg excessive loyalty to a charismatic leader, isolation from the wider world, an us-vs-them mentality, suspension of critical faculties, and perhaps financial exploitation.
For parts of the MAGA religious wing, they have integrated their political policies with their theology - which is a mirror to political Islam.
One of my more esoteric comparisons of Trumpists is to the Bitterenders from the Boer War, who were so committed to their cause that they would rather see their society laid waste than give up their cause.
CGT and carried interest not particularly.