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Labour are starting to own the economy – politicalbetting.com
Labour are starting to own the economy – politicalbetting.com
Ahead of the Spring Statement, only 25% of Britons say the government should make spending cutsLikewise, only 18% say the government should increase taxes, and 8% back increasing borrowingyougov.co.uk/politics/art…
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https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/?gift=kPTlqn0J1iP9IBZcsdI5IVJpB2t9BYyxpzU4sooa69M&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Voters now blame Labour for the economy
Labour are going to be destroyed by migration/The Boats, apart from everything else
Also contains this shocking tautology.
Next week some of the finest lawyers in the land will appear before the High Court in a case which could shake the Government to its core. While the case focuses on whether it is wrong to put VAT on education, much bigger issues are also at stake: the sovereignty of Parliament, the place of education in society and the rights of children.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/24/human-rights-laws-reverse-labour-private-school-vat-raid/
📊 Ref lead of 5pts
REF: 27% (+1)
LAB: 22% (-3)
CON: 21% (-)
LDEM: 14% (+2)
GRN: 11% (+1)
via @FindoutnowUK, 19th March
Chgs. w/ 05 Mar
BRITAINELECTS.COM
I love that @Roger finds it “barely credible”
What WOULD be credible, @Roger? Labour polling a steady 12 point lead after their brilliant first year? A surge for the Tories under the impeccable Kemi? Lib Dems heading for Number 10 due to the charisma of Sir Thingummy Uhmm?
The Great British Public displaying its usual sound common sense when it comes to economics.
What are the rest expecting ? To inherit from granny ?
Up there with Brexit.
Stopping immigration is not gonna solve all our problems. It will - if it ever happens. - likely make some WORSE to start with
My point is more that this is turning into an overwhelming opinion. Reform are heading for government. Farage is the “most likely” next PM. Recall that C4 Focus Group in Grimsby. Public opinion is heading really hard right on this, as it is across Europe, and this will dominate the next few years. And I do not see any way for Starmer to fix it
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1903497243581173822
Shame.
Whiskey Pete has a ring to it.
A few minutes later, the “Michael Waltz” account posted a lengthy note about trade figures, and the limited capabilities of European navies. “Whether it’s now or several weeks from now, it will have to be the United States that reopens these shipping lanes. Per the president’s request we are working with DOD and State to determine how to compile the cost associated and levy them on the Europeans.”
The account identified as “JD Vance” addressed a message at 8:45 to @Pete Hegseth: “if you think we should do it let’s go. I just hate bailing Europe out again.” (The administration has argued that America’s European allies benefit economically from the U.S. Navy’s protection of international shipping lanes.)
The user identified as Hegseth responded three minutes later: “VP: I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC. But Mike is correct, we are the only ones on the planet (on our side of the ledger) who can do this. Nobody else even close. Question is timing. I feel like now is as good a time as any, given POTUS directive to reopen shipping lanes. I think we should go; but POTUS still retains 24 hours of decision space.”
At this point, the previously silent “S M” joined the conversation. “As I heard it, the president was clear: green light, but we soon make clear to Egypt and Europe what we expect in return. We also need to figure out how to enforce such a requirement. EG, if Europe doesn’t remunerate, then what? If the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return.”
A rogue poll (“barely credible”) is a poll with results you do not like
Labour are having a fucking terrible time, the Tories are treading water, the Lib Dems and Greens are benefiting from annoyed lefties, Reform are benefiting from the entirely pissed off British public which wants “mass deportation”
https://www.gbnews.com/news/migrant-crisis-new-poll-mass-deportation-foreign-offenders-reform-uk
14 years and 22 billion black hole recited ad infinitum by Starmer, Reeves and others is beginning to make the nation groan, and the problems in the economy largely now come from Reeves choices and a lack of understanding of business
I do not expect Labour to recover anytime soon and 1st May could be very difficult for them
Why should American taxpayers fork out for defence that benefits, say, Ireland, which is now a really rich country which refuses to spend more than three euro on a navy coz it is “neutral”
And if the ECHR rejects VAT on private school fees in the next few weeks, as has been reported in this thread, then the meltdown by Reeves and Phillipson will be extraordinary
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/03/22/labour-mps-tell-starmer-to-curb-echr-powers-in-uk-courts/
I suspect they already know the case is as doomed as doomed can be so read this story as building something up only to knock it down a bit further when the verdict comes in.
The one they may lose, on HRA grounds, is the abolition of “marriage value”, in lease extension cases.
Whatever economic policies are adopted, and even with a near perfect government in place (which I don't expect from any of our current parties) it's going to be a hard slog for the next decade.
The polling in the header - no tax increases; no more borrowing, etc - is indicative of the unreal expectations of the electorate.
On topic and to be honest disappointing and predictable. I'm actually surprised 2024 Reform supporters are more enthusiastic about tax and spending cuts than 2024 Conservative voters and that might explain the drift from the latter to the former.
It seems then we have two broad approaches - on the one side, cut taxes, reduce spending and reduce borrowing (the spending reductions are doing a lot of heavy lifting and what about defence?) and on the other raise taxes and raise spending within the current borrowing envelope (though that does little to alleviate the overall borrowing situation).
The obvious answer would seem to be to raise taxes and cut spending which would in turn reduce borrowing but strangely enough the electorate wants a little jam not just endless gruel and there's the small matter of all the things on which we apparently need to spend money such as defence, social care, law & order, health etc, etc.
And here, in a tiny village in the Uruguayan wilds, which for some mad reason has one of the best restaurants in Latin America (number 73!) they have given me a steak which I will remember for the rest of my life
I am so nerdy I keep a steak/beef top ten, this is straight to number 2, maybe even number 1, duking it out with the ultra fine Wagyu Kobe I had in that insanely luxe Kyototango ryokan last October
It is American military leadership that forced Taiwan into investing in the US for advanced semiconductors but the company that makes the machines to make the chips is European. What if in the future an armed to the teeth Europe says "actually fuck that noise, we're going to sell our wares to whoever wants them" and ignores US sanctions on China and other hostile states? The only reason we give any fucks about what the US wants us to do is because we're so hugely dependent on their military so their foreign policy objectives become our foreign policy objectives, sometimes to the detriment of our domestic economy.
It the US thinks autarky is going to work out better for them I say good luck to them, but when they realise their mistake and want to restore what existed before they are going to find out that the rest of the World has moved on without them.
And you don't seem to have noticed that they were equally dismissive of Poland recently.
Having allies, and being a reliable ally in return, has paid dividends to the US for many decades. It's a relationship of mutual benefit.
This administration is basically destroying that, and I'm not sure how recoverable it will be.
But confronted by China and China’s incredible surge to near tech-supremacy, i don’t think America gives a fuck any more. The superpower of the future will be the nation that masters robotics, ML, all of it, and for that you need total focus on the job and defending Europe’s eastern border or “being global policeman” or whatever are utterly second or third tier issues
Also, the Yanks rightly reckon that in the end Europe will side with America, whatever
However, I also think the idea is wrong, for the following reasons.
Primarily, as I have said before, I do not believe that there is a causal link between new infrastructure and economic growth. Or at least, there is, but running the opposite way. It is economic growth that brings infrastructure with it, as companies flock to places like Dubai, or as Britain's Victorian industrialists needed quicker ways to transport coal, tin or wool. It is a fantasy that we can make poor places rich by giving them shiny tramlines and bridges. You must stimulate economic growth first, by reducing the costs of doing business - then not only will it quickly become apparent whether and where new infrastructure is required, but you are also likely to attract more private funding from the businesses that need the new infrastructure.
Secondly, with public projects of any kind the way they are in the UK at present - criminal levels of waste, DEI, civil service gold plating, endless planning delays, endless judicial reviews, endless environmental challenges courtesy of retained EU law - there is no quicker way to lose £500bn than put it into UK infrastructure. The system needs torching and rebuilding before any such funds are allocated.
Thirdly, as Algakirk says, this would be inflationary, whether the expenditure is worthwhile or not.
What if Trump & Co told the Houthis to leave American flagged vessels alone, and do what they like with the rest? Probably too smart for them to think of that.....
We will both lose if it goes. But it can't be retained if the current administration continues with its current policies.
Btw, as far as ASML is concerned, China is catching up faster than forecast.
I did comment yesterday that I do not believe any political party has the courage or commitment to address the real probems of spending and borrowing far too much, as it involves reducing debt and debt interest payments, but also fundamental changes across all benefits including the absurd triple lock, extending retirement age to 70+, and a form of means testing on pensions and even the NHS for the wealthy
(I didn't vote for them anyway, FWIW.)
As I said, they're trading in reliable global allies for unreliable global competitors, Europe that spends €500bn on defence isn't going to be happy being supplicant to US interests.
We just need to get economic growth.
And to get economic growth, we just need to stop people from deliberately preventing growth.
Remove planning restrictions on growth, and remove the ability to judicial review once a decision has been made to construct something and just let the growth f***ing happen.
Rather than having a circlejerk of lawyers fighting to ensure any money that could go on growth/investment instead goes to them like a modern day Bleak House but for investment instead of inheritance.
Here’s the guys that made it. I love them. The dude in the basque beret did the ribeye
LEGEND
There's no secret pot of gold that hasn't been tapped. If there were, then Labour would have already tapped it.
Increases in defence spending take time to result in extra capabilities, particularly in cases like this where we're taking naval power. The UK could double spending on the Royal Navy right now and it would be at least a decade before that resulted in a single new ship being commissioned. Even longer for some other countries as the UK is lucky enough to have existing decently capable shipbuilding facilities to build out, something quite rare in Europe now.
And, yes, Ireland are miserable parasites. Their population is similar to Norway, which manages to maintain a decent military (particularly their air force, which operates F-35s). For a wealthy EU nation to have essentially zero credible armed forces is not viable now and the Irish government needs to be told that in robust terms.
All the Western nations need to print money at the same time. The only problem is that you need to convince people that you'll never ever do it again! That's the tricky bit.
The problem with your analysis is that you're seeing competence rather than kludge.
Probably.
And certainly if the US abandons its democratic values.
The problem is far, far too many people have a vested interest in preventing growth.
I am actually optimistic about the next Government. I think it will be a combination of Tory and Reform, with the red-blooded nature and eagerness to prove themselves of Reform, but the more recent experience in Government, and (if Kemi succeeds) backbone of strong and realistic policy from the Tories.
So I shall devolve to enthusing about the steak
With multiple patterning techniques, that creates similar feature sizes to the EUV machines (and is actually preferable for stuff like memory chips).
Once the splurge was over, all that was left was paying the bill and here we are.
You're right inasmuch as political parties, desperate not to offend the voters, backed off the truth but you can't tell people what they don't want to hear - actually you can if you have a position of strength and a thick skin.
Those aged 65+ are now as much voting Reform as Conservative - it's the LDs strongest group but Labour's weakest so they can take the unpopular measures on pensions without losing much political capital.
Unfortunately, Starmer and Reeves seem more interested in Local Government Reorganisation for example than adequately funsing social care, SEN provision and temporary accommodation costs all of which are crippling local councils of all political stripes and none.
It will be a good test of just how well Reform are performing
In fact, I'd say plenty of people hate the compromises that come with it - unless the money comes out of thin air they're not interested.
Abolish local elections, local councils and all that other layer of bureaucracy. Let people choose who empties their bins and pay privately for that without needing to pay Council Tax. Let SEN needs be paid directly to schools etc that need it.
Reform are projected second, the LDs third and Labour an abysmal fourth as provincial England shows how much it hates Starmer's government with the Greens also doing OK
Too many people make their wealth by preventing others from creating growth.
It is illiberal and unreasonable.
The chef serves JUST the steak, that’s it. On a plate, Roaring with flavour and fat and marbled to fuck and sprinkled with a hint of sea salt
You get a tiny side plate of charred sort of dauphinoise and a little jar of delicious chimichurri
But he knows this steak is so good you don’t need anything else. It is sublime
This is my new top five steaks in history
1. Restaurant Garzon, Garzon, Uruguay
2. Wagyu Kobe in the best ryokan in Koyotango (if that’s a steak)
3. Aberdeen Angus at Gleneagles Hotel, Scotland
4. The T Bone at Dubya Bush’s “favourite steak restaurant” in Austin Texas
5. The Hereford steak at Heston’s Dinner at the Mandarin Oriental, London
Bubbling under:
Las Cabanas Buenos Aires, my own steak at home, the first posh steak frites I ever had in France….
Who can spot the tiny flaw in that combination.
'But while all that may be true, we still carry the torch for social justice higher than most nations. We just seem to have forgotten that someone, somewhere has to pay for it. As my American siblings soberly remind me: “Never let your mouth write a cheque your ass can’t cover.”
Rachel Reeves, as she contemplates her spring statement, must be wondering why no one foresaw that the huge IOU the last Labour administration wrote to disabled people would one day be called in. The size of the disability benefits bill is running at £39.1 billion; it will rise to at least £58 billion by the end of the parliament — more than we spend on primary schools or the army. And we can’t say we weren’t warned that social justice costs.'
'In 1995, the Disability Discrimination Act marked a transition from what used to be called the “medical” model of disability to the “social” model. In summary, the old idea was that any impairment was regarded as a deficiency in the person to whom it was attached. The new claim was that people come in all shapes and sizes: what we used to called a disability or deformity wasn’t a deficiency, merely another manifestation of human diversity. It was down to employers, architects, retailers, transport providers and the like to adjust to a new normal.'
'More broadly, my guess is that experiences common to the human condition — sadness, lapses in concentration, periods of exhaustion — are now being pathologised to an extent that makes the impairment unremarkable and not in any sense a true disability. In short, if everyone becomes disabled, then no one is disabled. In practice those who most need help are being pushed to the back of the queue by people whose claims are dubious.'
The whole piece is worth reading and one of the reasons I still pay for a subscription to The Times. He's articulating what many of us have said many times on here perfectly. We've medicalised "disability" to such an extend that people are using "mental health" as a catch all for signing up to a £10k pa UBI if you can convince the assessor that you are "deserving". It's time to end the PIP for all mental health claims and shit can UC and move back to JSA and ESA with only in person assessments of disability eligible for enhanced support. Yes it will make a lot of people poorer and yes there will be edge cases that will need resolving, yet if we do nothing the country is heading for the poor house as more and more people decide that they too can sign up for an easy life on PIP.
@ChrisCoons
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1h
Every single one of the government officials on this text chain have now committed a crime – even if accidentally – that would normally involve a jail sentence. We can’t trust anyone in this dangerous administration to keep Americans safe.
One of my team handed in her notice this week. She is quitting her post so she can look after her teenage daughter with ADHD, anxiety, eating disorders and deliberate self harm. I don't blame her at all, and would have done so myself in her circumstances. Hopefully my colleague be back in a few years time.
Next year, definitely plausible.
By the end of this Parliament? Absolutely possible.
The Government were elected for a five year term. They should have come in with serious, supply side reforms in year one.
There could be a whole array of buttered parsnips by the end.
2nd - a steak and avacado sandwich that I bought from a sort of caravan in what was working on becoming a ski resort in Chile
3rd - There was a Japanese restaurant in Broadgate - possibly called Tsatsuso - it had a big hotplate set of grills upstairs, and lovely and very Japanese dining rooms downstairs.
I also have very fond and good memories of the steaks my Dad used to cook. For some bizarre reason accompanied by fried onions and spaghetti. (We never had spaghetti with anything else, nor any other types of pasta)
Untangle planning- the government aren't ripping up.the rule book, but they are progressing about as well as you probably can in a litigious democracy.
Cutting energy costs reducing our reliance on expensive global gas- doing stuff and getting heckled for their pains
And there's a third thing, which I am sure has been discussed a lot, but I've forgotten. Don't remind me what it was, this is my happy place.
Not sure about the butter. Guess a good dairy cow or two will do the job, provided you keep Ed Miliband at a safe distance.
Make the rules lax and clear and give no room for people to have any standing to prevent growth.
Otherwise any nook and cranny in the rulebook gets abused in a Jarndyce v Jarndyce never ending series of legal battles to get anything done.
Walking through your ideas a little, you'd end up with each household having a network of contracts covering all the council functions from education (vouchers presumably) to refuse collection to street maintenance to library provision to perhaps even fire services (if you don't have a contract with the local fire station and your house catches fire, good luck).
Fine, in theory, if you have an ordered and organised population but in the real world you and I both know that wouldn't happen. People, faced with having to pay to have their bin cleared, wouldn't bother and it would be Birmingham every week on some streets.
I know you're a centraliser and despise any kind of local accountability or even local democracy, but seriously? Would you be happy to hand it all to a Labour Government to manage? About as happy as I would handing it to a Conservative Government
This is where it ends, my friends
"In this week's opinion poll, the Chinese Communist Party achieved 99.9% approval, unchanged from last week!"