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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big question is whether and how the debate impacts on voting in the Euros and GE2015
The experience of US presidential debates and, of course, the British GE2010 is that “winning” the debate is not necessarily a good pointer to its impact on voting.
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I don't recall Mr Farage suggesting that.
App: -16
Best PM (compared to one week ago)
Dave:37(+3)
Ed: 22 (-3)
Just 55% of LAB VI support Ed, whilsl 94% of CON VI and 6% of LAB VI support Dave
"I don't recall Mr Farage suggesting that."
Nor me.
But if one is 100% LD, maybe seeing existing LD voters breaking 20/77 for Farage/Clegg would cause some mental disequilibrium..
To Lib Dem / Clegg supporters: how did Clegg perform poorly last night? How would you improve or change his message for next week's debate?
To UKIP / Farage supporters: how did Farage perform poorly last night? How would you improve or change his message for next week's debate?
Did we all have a Faraleggasm last night during the first debate ?
Winners - Farage, Clegg and LBC
Losers - Dave and Ed
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2357021/The-hate-sheikh-Home-Counties-Firebrand-cleric-fuelling-global-conflict-Muslims-sets-HQ-idyllic-village.html
Cleggie might tap into the larger 'phile vote pool in May14, get a few temporary points and save some MEPs.
But, with less than a yr to go before the GE campaign, 2months of very high profile EUphilia isn't going to just dissipate in some minds. Just how many Ex-LD voters is this creating in , say, west country seats where the incumbent LD has strongly identified with EU scepticism?
Running a core seat GE campaign isn't likely to fit well with p'ing off core voters.
Perhaps he doesn't care - if the balance of power is say 15 MPs in May15, 16LD MPs is what it takes for DPM Clegg. If not, he's proved himself to Brussels for the consolation BigJob.
Apres moi etc.
I look forward to Populus's polling later to see how many other people noticed.
Separately are we now at the stage that only past voting weighting is keeping Labour slightly ahead with YouGov?
Clegg's strategy is cute. He and the LibDems very visibly become the standard bearer for the EU just as Farage is the head honcho for out and knowing full well that Dave and Ed will not engage with Farage and Ukip. Clegg steps in to fill the vacuum.
Clegg also wants to frame the argument in terms of the economic recovery, present and future jobs and subsidiary issues such as the European Arrest Warrant.
Both Clegg and Farage will be pleased with last night. The wider question is whether both debates will nudge the polls anything more than at the margin for the Euro elections or more long term remind voters of the qualities and/or weaknesses of both men and the parties they lead.
"Clegg's strategy is cute. "
With 20/77, it looks like a cunning plan.
What excuses are you going to use if and when crossover happens?> its quite possible it will happen soon.
The British government has actually gee-ed up the European Union to pursue effectively an imperialist, expansionist [policy] ... and even Mr. Barroso, the Commission President once himself said that we are building an empire. We have given a false series of hopes to a group of people in the Western Ukraine and so gee-ed up were they that they toppled their own elected leader. That provoked Mr. Putin and I think the European Union frankly does have blood on its hands in the Ukraine. And I don't want an European army, navy or air force or a European foreign policy. It has not been a thing for good in the Ukraine.
The Guardian has a video clip of the answers by both Clegg and Farage to the Ukraine question here: http://bit.ly/OWQsEX
Farage's answer, however truthful a view it may be, is not going to endear either himself or UKIP to the White House. And it won't be appreciated in No 10 or Brussels either.
A brave statement for which Farage will gain wide public agreement, but also foolish, unnecessary and a risk to UKIP's more immediate political goals.
Farage has given his opponents an easy target but they will need to exploit the opportunity carefully. Too much media attention to the comment may end up being to Farage's favour.
If an issue is EU sponsored in any degree Farage and Ukip regard it as irredeemably tainted and accordingly they completely reject it.
Clegg rolled out some of the same old tired clichés about the disadvantages of leaving the EU that annoy me.
Can the UKIPers on here tell me if UKIP want to remain in the EEA / EFTA?
At least that's what they themselves think. It's why I stopped posting before, and why my GP thinks I should probably stop again.
The ovrerall 57/36 win for Farage also is on the money. The overwhelming Eurosceptic Conservative inclined voters broke for Farage with Labour split down the middle and with Cleggs personal rating in the toilet a 36% score was respectable.
Farage's Euro-obsessiveness will do him no harm among those who are EU-obsessed, not sure it will help him with anyone else though. And there are a lot more of the latter than the former. To basically admit voting against the interests of UK citizens is a pretty big thing to do. He might want to revisit that in the next debate and come up with a better line if he is serious about taking UKIP into the mainstream.
"Ed Balls. What a tit."
Interested me.
Utter rot Mike. Farage did not say that he prefers Putin, or even agree with him. He did say that EU interference and expansionism in the Ukraine has caused the EU to have blood on its hands. A totally different thing.
Firstly the diminishing Ken Clarke wing that you couldn't distinguish too much from the LibDems. Secondly the mainstream Eurosceptic Cameron wing -the majority and finally the high octane Ukip-lite wing of Redwood, Bone and around 70 MP allies who frame most issues within the EU context.
The PM knows he has the juggle party discipline, Eurosceptic instinct and ensuring the EU doesn't engulf the party in internecine warfare that detracts from other more important messages to the voters who are not obsessed with the EU and who are vital to the party at the general election.
O/T but for those interested in the Scottish referendum (ignore if not) the latest piece by Professor Robertson on media bias in the BBC in particular. Some particularly striking figures on personalization of the debate and on abusive comment about individuals.
It's what he does - tell the truth. You might not always like it, you might not always agree with it (In this case I know you do) but the truth is a powerful weapon for a politician and seldom used.
P.S. I'm not making excuses, merely pointing out that Best PM metrics are pointless as they always massively favour the, erm, PM.
One for the PB Conservatives who assured us that Ed was wrong and all was rosy in the garden to consider on this sunny spring morn.
I'll check again nearer the time, but the forecast for qualifying is a 70% chance of a thunderstorm. Bad news for Williams (may be worth laying one or both to reach Q3, contingent on odds). High heat/humidity could also mean we see a significant number of retirements.
If crossover happens , it will certainly knock the overconfidence of the left leaning posters on here. If for only that reason, crossover cannot come soon enough.
It all depends on where I am in the world, and at home as I live in a rural area, my broadband can be very flaky at times.
The main thing is that the EU debate has been aired publicly for the first time since the last referendum. The second debate should further stir the pot.
Certainly both participants will need to up their game. The chairing of the debate needs to be firmer to prevent the frequent over-talking which makes people switch off, mentally if not physically.
"The emphasis on the importance of economic evidence over other forms relating to justice, welfare and the constitution persists across all four programmes despite evidence from a survey by the Church of Scotland and in more anecdotal evidence from journalists and audience participation debates."
He also really really needs to learn to stop shouting.
The fundamental problem for the centre-right/right is that there has never been two viable parties there. And when its a new paradigm nothing close to tactical voting occurs.
This could well be 83 in reverse - UKIP will not gain as many votes as the alliance (And at most 1 or 2 seats) but the split could be almost as damaging to the Conservatives as it was to Labour. Farage has got the big mo from last night.
Absolutely bloody marvellous.
1) Select a pool of fifty people. Survey them to show biases for/against. Ensure you have a good spread of initial views.
2) For each piece to be studied, give it to seven people at random. Get them to rate it from 0 to 10 on two scales: pro independence or pro union. The same figure on both scales shows balance. This should be done with no interaction between the subjects.
3) Once each individual has rated their pieces, compare each of their results with the other six people who studied each piece. If they are consistently out one way or the other, their results are downstated.
4) After they have finished, give them the same survey in 1) to see how their opinions have changed.
Would this give a (relatively) unbiased judgement?
But the body language. Farage always sweats too much, which is a huge turn-off for any audience, especially on TV. He still has not got that sorted. He must know. Doesn't he care?
And Clegg racing straight off at the end, instead of staying for a chat---what was he thinking? And he avoided Farage's eye---doesn't he know that makes him look shifty?
http://thewptformula.com/2014/03/26/analysis-a-brief-study-of-the-kinetic-energy-recovery-system-mgu-k/
Quite interesting. I wonder if in the next few years they'll try and increase the element of electric power in F1 even more.
Its slightly complicated. Being a member of EFTA does not incur any significant costs but also does not gain the benefits that most people woudl want from EFTA membership which is access to the EEA. Switzerland for example is a member of EFTA but not the EEA.
Membership of the EEA - which is what gives access to free movement of goods, people and services - does incur some costs paid to the EU which can be seen here:
http://www.efta.int/eea/eu-programmes/application-finances/eea-efta-budget
Next, you'll be telling us that his actions and policies as a minister forced up bills with extra 'green' costs.
Farage's tendency to shout annoyed me, but I'm not sure that it will do him any harm. Clegg is DPM and in government; he has to appear in control. At times last night he did not. Farage can afford to seem passionate. However Farage seemed (in my view at least) to try to speak over Clegg, although as I was only able to listen, not watch, I might be mistaken.
IMHO Farage's best argument was: "if we weren't already in, would we really consider joining?"
So effectively unless the UK withdraws from ECHR this would bar SSM completely.
Arf - well put and oh so true...!
http://www.twotempleplace.org/exhibitions/current-exhibition/
You are also misremembering (charitably) the position of the right-wing voters on there. In the main the acknowledged the issue Ed had identified but were heavily critical of his proposed solution
I haven't followed this closely, so i don't know who the professor is. But Whenever I delve into the murky world of social science I often find poorly designed surveys. I don't see why social science should be less rigorous, but apprently those in the field don't all agree..
Also I think you're being a tad hard on Farage. At the start he was a bit stiff and yes the sweating thing is bad but his body language was passionate, engaged and authentic whatever you thought of the content.
One thing that's annoyed me over the years is how little F1 technology trickles down to you and me. In fact, the biggest potential change to our cars in the next thirty years - driverless cars - has nothing to do with motorsport.
But the energy-saving tech could well trickle down. They're doing some very advanced stuff in F1 and sportscars that we could all easily see in our daily runabouts. The FIA needs congratulating for going down this route, as they do for their road safety schemes.
Or if the Lib Dems can claw back some points at the expense of the Two Eds party
I suspect neither will occur long term, maybe the former short term.
We are into the election race.
I can strongly recommend the brownies in the cafe though...
Some clever chap made the same pitlane point in the comments. They'll need to address the issue of silent cars moving at around 60mph, though, otherwise running people over will become quite possible.
He is great in the pub giving an acute soundbite; who wouldn't agree with that earthy tell-it-like-it-is-ness of him.
But constant exposure undoes him. He doesn't actually have a user-friendly demeanour or speaking style and can appear shifty and untrustworthy (IMO, natch).
I think Clegg, meanwhile was so understated that he aimed low and missed by a mile. He needs to be punchier.
If you gene-splice Clegg and Farage do you get Cameron??!!
However as you do not have a car, am sure there is a Red Flag position waiting for you.
But what was fascinating is how the committed infer what was meant rather than repeat what was said. And we wonder why we get anodyne answers to any question.
"If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,"
Farage possibly suffers most because Clegg is slightly more measured in his comments - probably from experience.
So answering the question will always be a hostage to fortune. Better to fudge and concentrate on looking the part.
Let's look at the conclusions from the faithful ... Farage is a bigot who hates the UK, and Clegg is a career politician (the worst insult of all) who adores the gravy train of the EU.
We hear what we want to hear.
That said I still disagree with the basic UKIP position on SSM.
Clegg should have lingered at the end.
There are some lovely comments on your piece including: "Without Scotland Labour would just be the Immigrants Party."
As for electric car noise (or lack thereof): people are working on the right sorts of sounds to warn people. Basically the sounds are broadcast from the car.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_warning_sounds
Clegg did linger at the end in the safety of the auditorium but not outside where a target is far more at risk.
http://www.eso.org/public/news/eso1410/
bummer.
On topic, re Farage / Putin - that silly little provincial hick Putin just has noooooo idea what'd really going down on the ground in Scotland, has he?
eso.org/public/announcements/ann14022/
When it comes to the GE, UKIP will have increased coverage and exposure and will need to bring forward some of its others as spokesmen. I expect some or many of its '11%' to recoil and reassess. Look at its leader before Farage. Straight out of The Tory 1986 conference.
Angry old buffers party (no offence). Not for government. They will win Gt Yarmouth though
Mr. Jessop, I'd heard about the noise suggestions. Horse's hooves could be good (and vary according to speed).
So it's not just me.
Then churches could choose (or discriminate against) who they were prepared to marry, without states sanctions, and it wouldn't matter which sex was marrying which under the law.
'Isnt it marvellous? They are almost like real politicians'