No, of course not, but it will be interesting to see if this small movement is sustained. I've not seen anything yet to change my 2010 view that a Labour majority would be on the cards, but if in the next few months the gap narrows and we start to see the odds reflect that even more, it'll be worth a look.
It will take at least a month for things to settle down.. The signs are encouraging for the Conservatives but there is a heck of a lot of ground to cover. We are getting towards the point when the Labour Party need to show their hand. Not to do so is damiging them.
It will take at least a month for things to settle down.. The signs are encouraging for the Conservatives but there is a heck of a lot of ground to cover. We are getting towards the point when the Labour Party need to show their hand. Not to do so is damiging them.
In fairness the Conservatives have been trying to offer Labour friendly advice about why it would help them to deliver a full suite of policies for two or more years. Oppositions struggle to get clear air to do so, so perhaps better to wait until Conference, while developing some broad themes this spring.
It will take at least a month for things to settle down.. The signs are encouraging for the Conservatives but there is a heck of a lot of ground to cover. We are getting towards the point when the Labour Party need to show their hand. Not to do so is damiging them.
In fairness the Conservatives have been trying to offer Labour friendly advice about why it would help them to deliver a full suite of policies for two or more years. Oppositions struggle to get clear air to do so, so perhaps better to wait until Conference, while developing some broad themes this spring.
Not much point in doing do before now, people would forget it by the time of GE. Save it all for the last year, but for the occasional bold sounding measure ('I hate energy companies', that sort of thing) to make people at least vaguely aware Labour are ok.
It will take at least a month for things to settle down.. The signs are encouraging for the Conservatives but there is a heck of a lot of ground to cover. We are getting towards the point when the Labour Party need to show their hand. Not to do so is damiging them.
In fairness the Conservatives have been trying to offer Labour friendly advice about why it would help them to deliver a full suite of policies for two or more years. Oppositions struggle to get clear air to do so, so perhaps better to wait until Conference, while developing some broad themes this spring.
Not much point in doing do before now, people would forget it by the time of GE. Save it all for the last year, but for the occasional bold sounding measure ('I hate energy companies', that sort of thing) to make people at least vaguely aware Laboru are ok.
Agreed. Fly a couple of kites before summer is out.
It will take at least a month for things to settle down.. The signs are encouraging for the Conservatives but there is a heck of a lot of ground to cover. We are getting towards the point when the Labour Party need to show their hand. Not to do so is damiging them.
In fairness the Conservatives have been trying to offer Labour friendly advice about why it would help them to deliver a full suite of policies for two or more years. Oppositions struggle to get clear air to do so, so perhaps better to wait until Conference, while developing some broad themes this spring.
Indeed Mr. BobaFett, we do try to be friendly of course!! There is always a cycle for policy and it is very true to say that Oppositions can stand by without developing the "what would you do" meme for some time. This can work effectively, but Labour's, or at least Mr. Milliband's response to the Budget has changed the Media narrative and not to Labour's advantage. Polling? well, we shall see...
Looks like the Times have a Sindy pill coming. Cue the usual meltdown on McPoliticalBetting.com
@kathy__odonnell: Tomorrow's YouGov #indyref poll for @thetimes is fascinating reading and v. exciting for ... well, you'll just have to wait.
Liberate yourselves from the Bedford elite! Independence for Scottish PBers ! FREEDOM!
You have to hand it to our Caledonian friends - not only is one in every other PBer seemingly Scottish (all of the four Scottish Tories that exist in the world post on PB), but entire threads are derailed by the mere mention of a poll, oil or - whisper it - subsample. It can often feel like the Wild Country lives here, the Picts catapulting virtual cabers at their own countrymen as if in some bloody dystopian Highland Games.
Looks like the Times have a Sindy pill coming. Cue the usual meltdown on McPoliticalBetting.com
@kathy__odonnell: Tomorrow's YouGov #indyref poll for @thetimes is fascinating reading and v. exciting for ... well, you'll just have to wait.
Liberate yourselves from the Bedford elite! Independence for Scottish PBers ! FREEDOM!
You have to hand it to our Caledonian friends - not only is one in every other PBer seemingly Scottish (all of the four Scottish Tories that exist in the world post on PB), but entire threads are derailed by the mere mention of a poll, oil or - whisper it - subsample. It can often feel like the Wild Country lives here, the Picts catapulting virtual cabers at their own countrymen as if in some bloody dystopian Highland Games.
The funniest bit is Labour supporters popping up blaming Cameron for the problems in Labour support for the union, surely?
Backing Labour must be like betting on a team down to 9 men who are a goal up with 25 mins to go.
Can they limp over the line ?
I know what you mean. I haven't actually backed anyone. I'm waiting until May 1, by when Rod Crosby predicted crossover. If it hasn't arrived by then I might have a bit.
Looks like the Times have a Sindy pill coming. Cue the usual meltdown on McPoliticalBetting.com
@kathy__odonnell: Tomorrow's YouGov #indyref poll for @thetimes is fascinating reading and v. exciting for ... well, you'll just have to wait.
Liberate yourselves from the Bedford elite! Independence for Scottish PBers ! FREEDOM!
You have to hand it to our Caledonian friends - not only is one in every other PBer seemingly Scottish (all of the four Scottish Tories that exist in the world post on PB), but entire threads are derailed by the mere mention of a poll, oil or - whisper it - subsample. It can often feel like the Wild Country lives here, the Picts catapulting virtual cabers at their own countrymen as if in some bloody dystopian Highland Games.
The funniest bit is Labour supporters popping up blaming Cameron for the problems in Labour support for the union, surely?
I think the entire No campaign is shit. Boring, uninspiring, obsessed with dreary technicalities and shit. It deserves to lose. But I desperately hope it doesn't.
Looks like the Times have a Sindy pill coming. Cue the usual meltdown on McPoliticalBetting.com
@kathy__odonnell: Tomorrow's YouGov #indyref poll for @thetimes is fascinating reading and v. exciting for ... well, you'll just have to wait.
Liberate yourselves from the Bedford elite! Independence for Scottish PBers ! FREEDOM!
You have to hand it to our Caledonian friends - not only is one in every other PBer seemingly Scottish (all of the four Scottish Tories that exist in the world post on PB), but entire threads are derailed by the mere mention of a poll, oil or - whisper it - subsample. It can often feel like the Wild Country lives here, the Picts catapulting virtual cabers at their own countrymen as if in some bloody dystopian Highland Games.
The funniest bit is Labour supporters popping up blaming Cameron for the problems in Labour support for the union, surely?
I think the entire No campaign is shit..
I thought you were a Darling fan?
My mistake.....should Miliband suggest his replacement?
The Euros will add heat and light, but not necessarily any true direction. After the media strom attending these venets, there will be the hugely important and closely poised Scottish Referendum. This will be crucial in setting the scene for the General Election Campaign to come. I think that the initiative is with the Conservatives right now, but only just and only since the Budget. Will this be built on? Interesting times indeed.
Looks like the Times have a Sindy pill coming. Cue the usual meltdown on McPoliticalBetting.com
@kathy__odonnell: Tomorrow's YouGov #indyref poll for @thetimes is fascinating reading and v. exciting for ... well, you'll just have to wait.
Fcknhll, are they going to be releasing Indy polls nightly for the next 6 months? Have too much of a good thing, you can, as McYoda might say.
A McYouGov daily poll?? I'm not sure "exciting" would be the right word to describe such news. If that were to happen, we could forget about discussing anything other than Scotland until September.
Looks like the Times have a Sindy pill coming. Cue the usual meltdown on McPoliticalBetting.com
@kathy__odonnell: Tomorrow's YouGov #indyref poll for @thetimes is fascinating reading and v. exciting for ... well, you'll just have to wait.
Liberate yourselves from the Bedford elite! Independence for Scottish PBers ! FREEDOM!
You have to hand it to our Caledonian friends - not only is one in every other PBer seemingly Scottish (all of the four Scottish Tories that exist in the world post on PB), but entire threads are derailed by the mere mention of a poll, oil or - whisper it - subsample. It can often feel like the Wild Country lives here, the Picts catapulting virtual cabers at their own countrymen as if in some bloody dystopian Highland Games.
The funniest bit is Labour supporters popping up blaming Cameron for the problems in Labour support for the union, surely?
I think the entire No campaign is shit..
I thought you were a Darling fan?
My mistake.....
I liked him as Chancellor. As leader of No? Naw. He has been placed there deliberately to bore the opposition into submission. Sadly Scots Nats are not known for getting easily distracted from their cause.
Looks like the Times have a Sindy pill coming. Cue the usual meltdown on McPoliticalBetting.com
@kathy__odonnell: Tomorrow's YouGov #indyref poll for @thetimes is fascinating reading and v. exciting for ... well, you'll just have to wait.
Liberate yourselves from the Bedford elite! Independence for Scottish PBers ! FREEDOM!
You have to hand it to our Caledonian friends - not only is one in every other PBer seemingly Scottish (all of the four Scottish Tories that exist in the world post on PB), but entire threads are derailed by the mere mention of a poll, oil or - whisper it - subsample. It can often feel like the Wild Country lives here, the Picts catapulting virtual cabers at their own countrymen as if in some bloody dystopian Highland Games.
The funniest bit is Labour supporters popping up blaming Cameron for the problems in Labour support for the union, surely?
I think the entire No campaign is shit..
I thought you were a Darling fan?
My mistake.....
I liked him as Chancellor. As leader of No? Naw. He has been placed there deliberately to bore the opposition into submission. Sadly Scots Nats are not known for getting easily distracted from their cause.
So Miliband should call for his replacement? (Cameron hardly can....)
Martin Amis's tele-biography of the English is brilliant. He plots a clever emotional arc: at first he is fiercely critical, but then he slowly and deliberately undermines his own thesis.
Watched that earlier this evening. Very good. He should be on the telly more. He spoke brilliantly. I'd like to hear more from him on English literature. A series perhaps?
Genuine jaw dropping stuff from Newsnight tonight, I thought I was watching a creepy episode of the Twilight Zone. Totally inappropriate use of Paxman's far gentler interview technique in the circumstances as well.
Looks like the Times have a Sindy pill coming. Cue the usual meltdown on McPoliticalBetting.com
@kathy__odonnell: Tomorrow's YouGov #indyref poll for @thetimes is fascinating reading and v. exciting for ... well, you'll just have to wait.
Fcknhll, are they going to be releasing Indy polls nightly for the next 6 months? Have too much of a good thing, you can, as McYoda might say.
It's very difficult to run against blind faith. If, as looks increasingly likely, Scotland votes Yes it will be because the Union has run its course. That will be sad, but it will also be an opportunity for all parts of our fair island to construct something new.
Genuine jaw dropping stuff from Newsnight tonight, I thought I was watching a creepy episode of the Twilight Zone. Totally inappropriate use of Paxman's far gentler interview technique in the circumstances as well.
St Paul of Flowers reciting his agony at the hands of the right wing Daily Mail that "makes Putin look like a bleeding heart liberal."
Is Jeremy Paxman being impersonated by Terry Wogan?
No. Wogan is more incisive.
it was like he was interviewing a parent of a murdered child, not the very highly remunerated and hugely incompetent Chairman of a major bank which has been brought to the brink of failure on his watch....
Twitter Neil Henderson @hendopolis 28m THE TIMES: Miliband not fit for Number 10, say most voters #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/wqbTKelg48
Twitter Neil Henderson @hendopolis 28m THE TIMES: Miliband not fit for Number 10, say most voters #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/wqbTKelg48
Some Tories must be getting a bit worried that Ed might be replaced by Yvette Cooper before the election.
I am sorely tempted Nick and probably could bring another player in to make the 7 (a frequent player from the University of California no less). However I am rather busy with work at the moment (something that should tail off from April 25). What pace are you going to aim at (one turn a week, one a fortnight or something much quicker?).
Martin Amis's tele-biography of the English is brilliant. He plots a clever emotional arc: at first he is fiercely critical, but then he slowly and deliberately undermines his own thesis.
Watched that earlier this evening. Very good. He should be on the telly more. He spoke brilliantly. I'd like to hear more from him on English literature. A series perhaps?
Yes, he has somehow reached the peculiar, but intriguing position where he is reactionary and radical at the same time (unlike his Dad, who was simply and boringly reactionary in his twilight years). It makes for compelling, unexpected viewing: he is evidently now old enough and rich enough not to care what the Guardian thinks (i.e. they hated it).
And yes he should be on TV a lot more, doing this stuff. It is perfect employment for hugely knowledgeable and highly cultured writers in mild neurological decline (which faces us all over the age of 60, meaning you cannot write great, original novels in the seventh decade).
The Grauniad is so utterly predictable sometimes. I have to confess to never reading any of his stuff. For some reason I always think it'll be tediously Will Selfian, to clever by half, impenetrably dull self indulgence; but if he writes like he talks I have some catching up to do.
SeanT Indeed, it was very good. Although bit concerned about Kingsley Amis's fantasies about the Queen. He also talked of the 'money society' rather than the class society but then contradicted that by talking about the nostalgia for Downton Abbey etc and talked of how the intelligentsia was beyond class completely. Not much on religion either at all. Liked his father's description of the Europeans - French nasty people, nice food; Spanish nice people, nasty food; Italians nice people, nice food; Germans nasty people, nasty food even if it was ridiculously clichéd and prejudiced
Looks like the Times have a Sindy pill coming. Cue the usual meltdown on McPoliticalBetting.com
@kathy__odonnell: Tomorrow's YouGov #indyref poll for @thetimes is fascinating reading and v. exciting for ... well, you'll just have to wait.
Fcknhll, are they going to be releasing Indy polls nightly for the next 6 months? Have too much of a good thing, you can, as McYoda might say.
It's very difficult to run against blind faith. If, as looks increasingly likely, Scotland votes Yes it will be because the Union has run its course. That will be sad, but it will also be an opportunity for all parts of our fair island to construct something new.
The incredible and bitter irony for the Left is this: Scottish independence, should it happen, means that BOTH countries - Scotland and rUK - will be more right wing after separation.
Scotland will be more rightwing because reality is rightwing: alone in a competitive world, unable to borrow at UK rates, with a small and ageing population, it will be forced to dump much of its incredibly expensive welfare state and go the Singapore/Hong Kong route - or expire. It should prosper once it rediscovers its capitalist self (Adam Smith and all that) but the transition will be long and painful.
England, shorn of the social democratic counterweight of Scotland, will simply revert to its natural conservatism. Minus 40 Labour MPs.
It will be British history's final narrative twist: the Labour Party commits suicide in a fit of selfish constitutional lunacy.
I have no idea how things will look politically post-Yes. There are just too many imponderables. I suspect that the rUK will end up being organised and run much less centrally.
I see the Crystal Methodist has popped to spread some s##t....and the BBC get their soundbite, after giving him a good soft soaping over shall we say an "interesting" version of the timeline of events surrounding his behaviour...
I did wonder why an interview with an druggie incompetent bank chief was getting prime billing.
SeanT I think an independent Scotland will be more rightwing, the right of the SNP, shorn of nationalism will unite with Scots' Tories to form a much more effective centre-right party without the load of 'the English Tory Party.' However, as I pointed out the impact on England would not be that big, Labour would still have won most of its postwar election victories even without Scotland, although it would help the Tories a little. I still hope and believe it will be a NO, the UK would be a much diminished force without Scotland, and Scottish independence would set off a wave of independence fervour from Quebec to Catalonia, to Venice to Texas to Flanders to parts of China, not to mention further impetus for chaos in the old nations of the USSR, and global instability
Martin Amis's tele-biography of the English is brilliant. He plots a clever emotional arc: at first he is fiercely critical, but then he slowly and deliberately undermines his own thesis.
Watched that earlier this evening. Very good. He should be on the telly more. He spoke brilliantly. I'd like to hear more from him on English literature. A series perhaps?
Yes, he has somehow reached the peculiar, but intriguing position where he is reactionary and radical at the same time (unlike his Dad, who was simply and boringly reactionary in his twilight years). It makes for compelling, unexpected viewing: he is evidently now old enough and rich enough not to care what the Guardian thinks (i.e. they hated it).
And yes he should be on TV a lot more, doing this stuff. It is perfect employment for hugely knowledgeable and highly cultured writers in mild neurological decline (which faces us all over the age of 60, meaning you cannot write great, original novels in the seventh decade).
The Grauniad is so utterly predictable sometimes. I have to confess to never reading any of his stuff. For some reason I always think it'll be tediously Will Selfian, to clever by half, impenetrably dull self indulgence; but if he writes like he talks I have some catching up to do.
No no no, he is infinitely superior to Will Self. Just a different league.
The Information (a flawed but brilliant novel about *writing*) contains one of the few scenes in world literature which has made me laugh out loud, very loud. Indeed I can only remember one other example where I was doubled over in fits by fictional words on a page: Irvine Welsh's The Granton Star Cause.
I take it that you can recall rather more examples of writing that made you cry. Curious how writing more easily provokes extremely sad emotions than very happy ones.
Twitter Neil Henderson @hendopolis 28m THE TIMES: Miliband not fit for Number 10, say most voters #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/wqbTKelg48
Some Tories must be getting a bit worried that Ed might be replaced by Yvette Cooper before the election.
I can't for the life of me see why Cooper would be a more effective leader than Miliband, if the policies were the same. She's not particularly charismatic either.
The only people on the Labour benches who would have considerable personal popularity as leader are Burnham and Alan Johnson. That said, I still maintain that if Miliband actually gets some bold, clear policies (and dropping the pledge to match Tory spending plans is a necessity to get to those policies), most of the issues with his personality would go away. He doesn't really inspire hatred (in the way Balls/Osborne do), but it's just when he's going out of his way to not say anything interesting and just trotting out lame empty soundbites, people have nothing to focus on except his funny voice and his funny looks.
Martin Amis's tele-biography of the English is brilliant. He plots a clever emotional arc: at first he is fiercely critical, but then he slowly and deliberately undermines his own thesis.
Watched that earlier this evening. Very good. He should be on the telly more. He spoke brilliantly. I'd like to hear more from him on English literature. A series perhaps?
Yes, he has somehow reached the peculiar, but intriguing position where he is reactionary and radical at the same time (unlike his Dad, who was simply and boringly reactionary in his twilight years). It makes for compelling, unexpected viewing: he is evidently now old enough and rich enough not to care what the Guardian thinks (i.e. they hated it).
And yes he should be on TV a lot more, doing this stuff. It is perfect employment for hugely knowledgeable and highly cultured writers in mild neurological decline (which faces us all over the age of 60, meaning you cannot write great, original novels in the seventh decade).
The Grauniad is so utterly predictable sometimes. I have to confess to never reading any of his stuff. For some reason I always think it'll be tediously Will Selfian, to clever by half, impenetrably dull self indulgence; but if he writes like he talks I have some catching up to do.
No no no, he is infinitely superior to Will Self. Just a different league.
The Information (a flawed but brilliant novel about *writing*) contains one of the few scenes in world literature which has made me laugh out loud, very loud. Indeed I can only remember one other example where I was doubled over in fits by fictional words on a page: Irvine Welsh's The Granton Star Cause.
I take it that you can recall rather more examples of writing that made you cry. Curious how writing more easily provokes extremely sad emotions than very happy ones.
Maybe it easier to empathise with sadness? I remember crying at the end of "Of Mice and Men" in the 4th year at school. Felt so bad for Lenny. Tres embarrassing
Honestly think that Labour will stick with Ed Miliband, its too late to do anything now unless he chooses to step down. Some senior Labour figures must have despaired of a frothy Labour lead, especially one which has led to too much complacency and inertia while hiding Ed's poor personal polling for too long. I think that Labour lost the next GE when Ed Miliband initially put Alan Johnson in the post of Shadow Chancellor, he then compounded this mistake by giving the job to Ed Balls when Johnson stood down and leaving him there.
The next GE was always going to be about the economy. Ed Miliband should have made it his absolutely priority to build a credible Shadow Treasury team fit for purpose from day one of his Leadership, and one with no strong links to the mistakes of the Brown era. Michael Howard and David Cameron took a gamble by appointing a relatively fresh face politician in Osborne before and after the 2005 GE, and despite the grumbles internally from some quarters Osborne's stock is now at probable its highest just in time for the next GE. Ed Balls on the other hand,,,
Twitter Neil Henderson @hendopolis 28m THE TIMES: Miliband not fit for Number 10, say most voters #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/wqbTKelg48
Some Tories must be getting a bit worried that Ed might be replaced by Yvette Cooper before the election.
Twitter Neil Henderson @hendopolis 28m THE TIMES: Miliband not fit for Number 10, say most voters #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/wqbTKelg48
Some Tories must be getting a bit worried that Ed might be replaced by Yvette Cooper before the election.
I can't for the life of me see why Cooper would be a more effective leader than Miliband, if the policies were the same. She's not particularly charismatic either.
The only people on the Labour benches who would have considerable personal popularity as leader are Burnham and Alan Johnson. That said, I still maintain that if Miliband actually gets some bold, clear policies (and dropping the pledge to match Tory spending plans is a necessity to get to those policies), most of the issues with his personality would go away. He doesn't really inspire hatred (in the way Balls/Osborne do), but it's just when he's going out of his way to not say anything interesting and just trotting out lame empty soundbites, people have nothing to focus on except his funny voice and his funny looks.
You are right. Yvette Cooper is not a charismatic personality. She has not established herself as anyone with a real political opinion, let alone an agenda for change that would inspire a nation.
The problem of the Brown/Blair years is that people of quality saw no way of gaining meaningful promotion and so moved away from politics. Labour failed to engage with proper succession planning (as do most politic parties) and so they have been left with generation with no profile and no real engagement with the voters.
It is too late for Miliband to properly establish a strong platform of popular policies. The groundwork for that has to be laid over a period of time - otherwise it looks like something cobbled together to appear popular rather than something they really believe in and have campaigned for.
Martin Amis's tele-biography of the English is brilliant. He plots a clever emotional arc: at first he is fiercely critical, but then he slowly and deliberately undermines his own thesis.
Watched that earlier this evening. Very good. He should be on the telly more. He spoke brilliantly. I'd like to hear more from him on English literature. A series perhaps?
Yes, he has somehow reached the peculiar, but intriguing position where he is reactionary and radical at the same time (unlike his Dad, who was simply and boringly reactionary in his twilight years). It makes for compelling, unexpected viewing: he is evidently now old enough and rich enough not to care what the Guardian thinks (i.e. they hated it).
And yes he should be on TV a lot more, doing this stuff. It is perfect employment for hugely knowledgeable and highly cultured writers in mild neurological decline (which faces us all over the age of 60, meaning you cannot write great, original novels in the seventh decade).
The Grauniad is so utterly predictable sometimes. I have to confess to never reading any of his stuff. For some reason I always think it'll be tediously Will Selfian, to clever by half, impenetrably dull self indulgence; but if he writes like he talks I have some catching up to do.
No no no, he is infinitely superior to Will Self. Just a different league.
The Information (a flawed but brilliant novel about *writing*) contains one of the few scenes in world literature which has made me laugh out loud, very loud. Indeed I can only remember one other example where I was doubled over in fits by fictional words on a page: Irvine Welsh's The Granton Star Cause.
I take it that you can recall rather more examples of writing that made you cry. Curious how writing more easily provokes extremely sad emotions than very happy ones.
Comedy is much harder than tragedy. A cliche, but true.
This is why successful comedians are paid shitloads of money, whereas moping literary novelists writing about adultery and death are paid zip.
I agree. Yet year after year the Oscars ignore successful comedies and dish out the Best Film Oscar to worthy weepies. How many comedies have won Best Film Oscar? I can think of Annie Hall and Shakespeare In Love, and in the last generation that's about it.
Honestly think that Labour will stick with Ed Miliband, its too late to do anything now unless he chooses to step down. Some senior Labour figures must have despaired of a frothy Labour lead, especially one which has led to too much complacency and inertia while hiding Ed's poor personal polling for too long. I think that Labour lost the next GE when Ed Miliband initially put Alan Johnson in the post of Shadow Chancellor, he then compounded this mistake by giving the job to Ed Balls when Johnson stood down and leaving him there.
The next GE was always going to be about the economy. Ed Miliband should have made it his absolutely priority to build a credible Shadow Treasury team fit for purpose from day one of his Leadership, and one with no strong links to the mistakes of the Brown era. Michael Howard and David Cameron took a gamble by appointing a relatively fresh face politician in Osborne before and after the 2005 GE, and despite the grumbles internally from some quarters Osborne's stock is now at probable its highest just in time for the next GE. Ed Balls on the other hand,,,
Twitter Neil Henderson @hendopolis 28m THE TIMES: Miliband not fit for Number 10, say most voters #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/wqbTKelg48
Some Tories must be getting a bit worried that Ed might be replaced by Yvette Cooper before the election.
If the polls keep moving in the same direction, we could have a Tory lead within weeks, and perhaps a sizeable one within months. Whether Labour MPs would simply sit around like lemons in that scenario would be interesting. The likes of John Mann are already restive.
If the polls keep moving in the same direction, we could have a Tory lead within weeks, and perhaps a sizeable one within months. Whether Labour MPs would simply sit around like lemons in that scenario would be interesting. The likes of John Mann are already restive.
I don't think the momentum is sufficient to move things to a large Tory lead.
Martin Amis's tele-biography of the English is brilliant. He plots a clever emotional arc: at first he is fiercely critical, but then he slowly and deliberately undermines his own thesis.
Watched that earlier this evening. Very good. He should be on the telly more. He spoke brilliantly. I'd like to hear more from him on English literature. A series perhaps?
No no no, he is infinitely superior to Will Self. Just a different league.
The Information (a flawed but brilliant novel about *writing*) contains one of the few scenes in world literature which has made me laugh out loud, very loud. Indeed I can only remember one other example where I was doubled over in fits by fictional words on a page: Irvine Welsh's The Granton Star Cause.
I take it that you can recall rather more examples of writing that made you cry. Curious how writing more easily provokes extremely sad emotions than very happy ones.
Comedy is much harder than tragedy. A cliche, but true.
This is why successful comedians are paid shitloads of money, whereas moping literary novelists writing about adultery and death are paid zip.
I agree. Yet year after year the Oscars ignore successful comedies and dish out the Best Film Oscar to worthy weepies. How many comedies have won Best Film Oscar? I can think of Annie Hall and Shakespeare In Love, and in the last generation that's about it.
There's Something About Mary is my fav film for that reason. Still laugh out loud 15 years after first watch
If the polls keep moving in the same direction, we could have a Tory lead within weeks, and perhaps a sizeable one within months. Whether Labour MPs would simply sit around like lemons in that scenario would be interesting. The likes of John Mann are already restive.
I don't think the momentum is sufficient to move things to a large Tory lead.
A lead of 3-5% isn't large numerically but it would be huge psychologically.
SeanT I think an independent Scotland will be more rightwing, the right of the SNP, shorn of nationalism will unite with Scots' Tories to form a much more effective centre-right party without the load of 'the English Tory Party.' However, as I pointed out the impact on England would not be that big, Labour would still have won most of its postwar election victories even without Scotland, although it would help the Tories a little. I still hope and believe it will be a NO, the UK would be a much diminished force without Scotland, and Scottish independence would set off a wave of independence fervour from Quebec to Catalonia, to Venice to Texas to Flanders to parts of China, not to mention further impetus for chaos in the old nations of the USSR, and global instability
I'm increasingly schizo about indyref. At the moment it seems we are doomed to feeble, inept, soft left welfarist governments, as the union is presently constructed: neither nation, England or Scotland, is able to be quite itself.
Divided and partitioned, both countries would inevitably have to take a long hard look at Reality, and would become more rightwing. I also believe an England divorced from Scotland would finally shake off its last imperial pretensions, and would quite probably leave the EU: it might be a happier country thereby - piratical Elizabethan England once again, prosperous, fiercely independent and cheerfully perfidious.
However my innate Britishness, my love of Scotland AND England AND the union flag and all that, makes me fearful and nervous at the same time.
It is very stimulating, but also bewildering.
Really??
I don't feel innately British at all, and don't love Scotland anymore than I do France or Spain really. Interesting and surprising to me that some English people do.
If the polls keep moving in the same direction, we could have a Tory lead within weeks, and perhaps a sizeable one within months. Whether Labour MPs would simply sit around like lemons in that scenario would be interesting. The likes of John Mann are already restive.
I don't think the momentum is sufficient to move things to a large Tory lead.
A lead of 3-5% isn't large numerically but it would be huge psychologically.
True, and sizeable doesn't have to be large, especially taken in the context of a (late) midterm government.
SeanT I think an independent Scotland will be more rightwing, the right of the SNP, shorn of nationalism will unite with Scots' Tories to form a much more effective centre-right party without the load of 'the English Tory Party.' However, as I pointed out the impact on England would not be that big, Labour would still have won most of its postwar election victories even without Scotland, although it would help the Tories a little. I still hope and believe it will be a NO, the UK would be a much diminished force without Scotland, and Scottish independence would set off a wave of independence fervour from Quebec to Catalonia, to Venice to Texas to Flanders to parts of China, not to mention further impetus for chaos in the old nations of the USSR, and global instability
I'm increasingly schizo about indyref. At the moment it seems we are doomed to feeble, inept, soft left welfarist governments, as the union is presently constructed: neither nation, England or Scotland, is able to be quite itself.
Divided and partitioned, both countries would inevitably have to take a long hard look at Reality, and would become more rightwing. I also believe an England divorced from Scotland would finally shake off its last imperial pretensions, and would quite probably leave the EU: it might be a happier country thereby - piratical Elizabethan England once again, prosperous, fiercely independent and cheerfully perfidious.
However my innate Britishness, my love of Scotland AND England AND the union flag and all that, makes me fearful and nervous at the same time.
It is very stimulating, but also bewildering.
Really??
I don't feel innately British at all, and don't love Scotland anymore than I do France or Spain really. Interesting and surprising to me that some English people do.
You have to remember I am Celtic and Cornish, so the union makes more sense to me emotionally, perhaps - the marriage of Gael and Teuton, of Celt and Saxon. I genuinely believe this is part of the British genius.
But it may have run its course. Dunno.
I guess I feel the way I do because all my family that I have met are from East London or Essex. I'd probably say that if everywhere north of Milton Keynes declared independence I wouldn't be bothered
SeanT I think an independent Scotland will be effective centre-right party without the load of 'the English Tory Party.' Howould still hay
Divided and partitioned, both countries would inevitably have to take a long hard look at Reality, and would become more rightwing. I also believe an England divorced from Scotland would finally shake off its last imperial pretensions, and would quite probably leave the EU: it might be a happier country thereby - piratical Elizabethan England once again, prosperous, fiercely independent and cheerfully perfidious.
However my innate Britishness, my love of Scotland AND England AND the union flag and all that, makes me fearful and nervous at the same time.
It is very stimulating, but also bewildering.
Really??
I don't feel innately British at all, and don't love Scotland anymore than I do France or Spain really. Interesting and surprising to me that some English people do.
Why wouldn't we? Not everyone will feel innately British, but I have always keenly felt my joint Englishness and Britishness, and how the former is enhanced by the latter. I grumble about the Scots and the Welsh and the Northern Irish (that situation is more complex), but it's always been in the sense of grumbling about family, I've always felt that in a time where nations always seem to be splitting away from each other (creating supranational political bodies is not as emotionally investing as being joined in a nation-state, nationalism being possibly the key driver of global politics for the past few centuries), the existence of the union of distinct constituent nations (rather than mere States) I've fount it to be very pleasing and powerful, I feel uplifted by the British part of my identity and its connection with the Welsh, Scots and Irish.
Scotland will always be our friend, but I find it immensely depressing they no longer wish to be family, and I suspect that is what will end up happening, that either the union has failed its people, or people no longer see its successes, in which case it has also failed.
France and Spain are allies, Scotland is more than that (and I am skeptical that you would genuinely be surprised to see that some English people would think that - even if you, like many people, have no love for the union, the mere fact of its presence should be an indicator that it is reasonable to suppose many in that union feel love for the constituent parts over other allies, else there would be no british patriotism at all), and I sincerely hope I am merely pessimistic and that they can be persuaded out of more than fear that that is the case, and that England can rediscover its own love for the union. Apathy on both sides gives a blank check for those who see no value or outright hate the union to tear the whole thing down.
I don't feel innately British at all, and don't love Scotland anymore than I do France or Spain really. Interesting and surprising to me that some English people do.
You have to remember I am Celtic and Cornish, so the union makes more sense to me emotionally, perhaps - the marriage of Gael and Teuton, of Celt and Saxon. I genuinely believe this is part of the British genius.
But it may have run its course. Dunno.
Personally I don't feel especially British or even European, just human. Having visited over 20 countries in the last few years, the similarities in range of temperaments and atti tudes seem vastly greater than the differences. We all fuss too much about the differences.
I am sorely tempted Nick and probably could bring another player in to make the 7 (a frequent player from the University of California no less). However I am rather busy with work at the moment (something that should tail off from April 25). What pace are you going to aim at (one turn a week, one a fortnight or something much quicker?).
It's one turn per 3 days (set by whoever it was that set it up), with one-day turns for builds and retreats. If the game we've just finished is any guide, that's not that intense - there's a spurt of early diplomacy, then things settle down. A typical game lasts to 1912 or so, total is a few months. Unless you get knocked out, of course...
SeanT I think an independent Scotland will be effective centre-right party without the load of 'the English Tory Party.' Howould still hay
It is very stimulating, but also bewildering.
Really??
I don't feel innately British at all, and don't love Scotland anymore than I do France or Spain really. Interesting and surprising to me that some English people do.
Why wouldn't we? Not everyone will feel innately British, but I have always keenly felt my joint Englishness and Britishness, and how the former is enhanced by the latter. I grumble about the Scots and the Welsh and the Northern Irish (that situation is more complex), but it's always been in the sense of grumbling about family, I've always felt that in a time where nations always seem to be splitting away from each other (creating supranational political bodies is not as emotionally investing as being joined in a nation-state, nationalism being possibly the key driver of global politics for the past few centuries), the existence of the union of distinct constituent nations (rather than mere States) to be very pleasing and powerful, I feel uplifted by the British part of my identity and its connection with the Welsh, Scots and Irish.
Scotland will always be our friend, but I find it immensely depressing they no longer wish to be family, and that I suspect that is what will end up happening, that either the union has failed its people, or people no longer see its successes, in which case it has also failed. France and Spain are allies, Scotland is more than that (and I am skeptical that you would genuinely be surprised to see that some English people would think that - even if you, like many people, have no love for the union, the mere fact of its presence should be an indicator that it is reasonable to suppose many in that union feel love for the constituent parts over other allies, else there would be no british patriotism at all), and I sincerely hope I am merely pessimistic and that they can be persuaded out of more than fear that that is the case, and that England can rediscover its own love for the union. Apathy on both sides gives a blank check for those who see no value or outright hate the union to tear the whole thing down.
Good night all.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and that opinion is as valid as any other. I just know that I think about politics probably more than the rest of my friends put together, and I honestly couldn't care less about Scotland leaving or staying. Most people I know are annoyed that there isn't a box to tick called English on forms, and if someone asked me where I was from, "Britain" or "United Kingdom" wouldn't enter my mind
SeanT/TSE Well that was a load of excitement punctured in 5 minutes, the yougov yes total is barely more than the triumphant Yes for AV total
It's already being described as a 'breakthrough' for 'Yes' by one late of this parish. I wonder what a poll where Yes are in the lead would be described as! Still, a warning signal for the No campaign, the direction is unambiguous.
RobD Well yes, but No is still clearly over 50%, Yes is not even at 40%, and undecided tend to break for the status quo in referendums. The Yes camp will have to do better than that, and a warning to take newspaper poll previews with a large pinch of salt
RobD Well yes, but No is still clearly over 50%, Yes is not even at 40%, and undecided tend to break for the status quo in referendums. The Yes camp will have to do better than that, and a warning to take newspaper poll previews with a large pinch of salt
Well, we still have 6 months to go, so 'No' can't take anything for granted, especially if they want a convincing vote.
RobD Of course a week is a long time in politics, but Darling strikes me as calmly leading the way forward and not one prone to complacency, just forensically dealing with the Yes arguments, a 15 point lead on polling day though would be a thumping No vote which would kill off talk of independence for a generation
Andy, I think that recent history shows that Labour MPs really would simply sit around like lemons yet again. It is going to take more than the usual suspects complaining/briefing on either side of the Labour party to see any real move to try and change the current direction of the party.
SeanT I think an independent Scotland will be more rightwing, the right of the SNP, shorn of nationalism will unite with Scots' Tories to form a much more effective centre-right party without the load of 'the English Tory Party.' However, as I pointed out the impact on England would not be that big, Labour would still have won most of its postwar election victories even without Scotland, although it would help the Tories a little. I still hope and believe it will be a NO, the UK would be a much diminished force without Scotland, and Scottish independence would set off a wave of independence fervour from Quebec to Catalonia, to Venice to Texas to Flanders to parts of China, not to mention further impetus for chaos in the old nations of the USSR, and global instability
Honestly think that Labour will stick with Ed Miliband, its too late to do anything now unless he chooses to step down. Some senior Labour figures must have despaired of a frothy Labour lead, especially one which has led to too much complacency and inertia while hiding Ed's poor personal polling for too long. I think that Labour lost the next GE when Ed Miliband initially put Alan Johnson in the post of Shadow Chancellor, he then compounded this mistake by giving the job to Ed Balls when Johnson stood down and leaving him there.
The next GE was always going to be about the economy. Ed Miliband should have made it his absolutely priority to build a credible Shadow Treasury team fit for purpose from day one of his Leadership, and one with no strong links to the mistakes of the Brown era. Michael Howard and David Cameron took a gamble by appointing a relatively fresh face politician in Osborne before and after the 2005 GE, and despite the grumbles internally from some quarters Osborne's stock is now at probable its highest just in time for the next GE. Ed Balls on the other hand,,,
Twitter Neil Henderson @hendopolis 28m THE TIMES: Miliband not fit for Number 10, say most voters #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/wqbTKelg48
Some Tories must be getting a bit worried that Ed might be replaced by Yvette Cooper before the election.
If the polls keep moving in the same direction, we could have a Tory lead within weeks, and perhaps a sizeable one within months. Whether Labour MPs would simply sit around like lemons in that scenario would be interesting. The likes of John Mann are already restive.
"Nigel Farage: My live debate with Nick Clegg is upon us. Does he realise what is about to hit him? I’ve been waiting years for this opportunity, and I won’t be wasting it":
PB has a Labour poster who constantly goes on about moving goal posts, squirrels and crossovers when it comes to polling and the Labour lead. Indeed, he seems to get very excited most nights, and when he appears he totally focuses on his imaginary group of PB Hodges/Tories posters. But I always think its a wee bit ironic that even the slightest shift in the Yes vote from no hope to a margin of error position can illicit far more excitement from our SNP supporters than even a headline Labour lead dropping down to 1% on the site.
For all the criticism of the Better Together campaign from some quarters on this site, I bet the Labour supporters here wish that their party had been polling that far ahead of the Conservatives so as to allow a far more comfortable cushion when a swing back occurred.
SeanT/TSE Well that was a load of excitement punctured in 5 minutes, the yougov yes total is barely more than the triumphant Yes for AV total
It's already being described as a 'breakthrough' for 'Yes' by one late of this parish. I wonder what a poll where Yes are in the lead would be described as! Still, a warning signal for the No campaign, the direction is unambiguous.
Why? At the moment the SNP have swung decidedly left wing to try and offer a very socialist election manifesto to the Scottish public in the hope of attracting some Labour don't knows to the cause for Independence. They have tried to turn the Indy debate into an anti Tory rally in recent months, and Ed Miliband stupidly rose to the bait last weekend. For years now, some in the Scottish Tory party and at ConservativeHome etc have dreamed of a right wing Tory revival if only the Scots would go Independent to prove their point.
It was bo**ocks then, and it remains so now. A newly Independent Scotland is no more likely to suddenly become more rightwing than the UK did back in 1997, or in the intervening years since then. But a Scotland who votes No in September might just be more amenable to a Westminster Conservative Government come the 2015 GE....
SeanT I think an independent Scotland will be more rightwing, the right of the SNP, shorn of nationalism will unite with Scots' Tories to form a much more effective centre-right party without the load of 'the English Tory Party.' However, as I pointed out the impact on England would not be that big, Labour would still have won most of its postwar election victories even without Scotland, although it would help the Tories a little. I still hope and believe it will be a NO, the UK would be a much diminished force without Scotland, and Scottish independence would set off a wave of independence fervour from Quebec to Catalonia, to Venice to Texas to Flanders to parts of China, not to mention further impetus for chaos in the old nations of the USSR, and global instability
Comments
No, of course not, but it will be interesting to see if this small movement is sustained. I've not seen anything yet to change my 2010 view that a Labour majority would be on the cards, but if in the next few months the gap narrows and we start to see the odds reflect that even more, it'll be worth a look.
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 8m
TELEGRAPH SCOTLAND: Salmond's plans 'don't add up' #TomorrowsPapersToday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/T0NXKRnE94
@kathy__odonnell: Tomorrow's YouGov #indyref poll for @thetimes is fascinating reading and v. exciting for ... well, you'll just have to wait.
Can they limp over the line ?
http://www.playdiplomacy.com/games.php?subpage=pending&msg=18
Current cast
Foxinsox
AndyCooke
NickMP
corporeal
Freggles
How can you resist?
Independence for Scottish PBers ! FREEDOM!
Spreadex voided my 7/5 on £200 on Man City winning the title. "Incorrectly left the market open during the game..."
Fortunately Paddy Power have ridden to the rescue as I've managed to zero out my Betfair lay.
Only 20% see Ed M as a "PM in waiting"
NB. It may have been "less than 20%" - I didn't catch it clearly.
Have too much of a good thing, you can, as McYoda might say.
Is Jeremy Paxman being impersonated by Terry Wogan?
No. Wogan is more incisive.
My mistake.....should Miliband suggest his replacement?
Quality trolling. Sadly I have to retire so will pick this one up with you tomorrow*
*thus creating yet more Scottish-related posts on PB, just in case it needs them
Neil Henderson @hendopolis 28m
THE TIMES: Miliband not fit for Number 10, say most voters #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/wqbTKelg48
They'll have to hanker after the 1650s rather that the 1950s.
Your prescription for how Miliband should fix the weakest link -Scottish Labour - in the Better Together campaign!
Well worth waiting for I am sure!
RIP?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2589236/Racist-Nazi-fanatic-nicknamed-Adolf-plotted-blow-mosques-home-bomb.html
Does Ed look like a PM in waiting
Does 19, Doesn't 63, DK 17
When the same Q was asked in Sep 2008 of Dave it was
Does 49. Doesn't 34, DK 16
Is the Lab Party ready for government
Ready 26, Not Ready 52, DK 22
When the same Q was asked in Sep 2008 of The Tories it was
Ready 43, Not Ready 36, DK 21.
I'm currently at the cinema awaiting the start of Captain America: The Winter Soldier. (They have an Avengers/Cap America double bill on)
So if the times don't publish their Indy ref polling before midnight, I'll post it after I'vew watched Cap America, around 2.30am.
I did wonder why an interview with an druggie incompetent bank chief was getting prime billing.
*In the style of Ramones t shirt buyers, I bought one without really knowing who Cpn America is
The only people on the Labour benches who would have considerable personal popularity as leader are Burnham and Alan Johnson. That said, I still maintain that if Miliband actually gets some bold, clear policies (and dropping the pledge to match Tory spending plans is a necessity to get to those policies), most of the issues with his personality would go away. He doesn't really inspire hatred (in the way Balls/Osborne do), but it's just when he's going out of his way to not say anything interesting and just trotting out lame empty soundbites, people have nothing to focus on except his funny voice and his funny looks.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11226334
The next GE was always going to be about the economy. Ed Miliband should have made it his absolutely priority to build a credible Shadow Treasury team fit for purpose from day one of his Leadership, and one with no strong links to the mistakes of the Brown era. Michael Howard and David Cameron took a gamble by appointing a relatively fresh face politician in Osborne before and after the 2005 GE, and despite the grumbles internally from some quarters Osborne's stock is now at probable its highest just in time for the next GE. Ed Balls on the other hand,,,
The problem of the Brown/Blair years is that people of quality saw no way of gaining meaningful promotion and so moved away from politics. Labour failed to engage with proper succession planning (as do most politic parties) and so they have been left with generation with no profile and no real engagement with the voters.
It is too late for Miliband to properly establish a strong platform of popular policies. The groundwork for that has to be laid over a period of time - otherwise it looks like something cobbled together to appear popular rather than something they really believe in and have campaigned for.
I don't feel innately British at all, and don't love Scotland anymore than I do France or Spain really. Interesting and surprising to me that some English people do.
Scotland will always be our friend, but I find it immensely depressing they no longer wish to be family, and I suspect that is what will end up happening, that either the union has failed its people, or people no longer see its successes, in which case it has also failed.
France and Spain are allies, Scotland is more than that (and I am skeptical that you would genuinely be surprised to see that some English people would think that - even if you, like many people, have no love for the union, the mere fact of its presence should be an indicator that it is reasonable to suppose many in that union feel love for the constituent parts over other allies, else there would be no british patriotism at all), and I sincerely hope I am merely pessimistic and that they can be persuaded out of more than fear that that is the case, and that England can rediscover its own love for the union. Apathy on both sides gives a blank check for those who see no value or outright hate the union to tear the whole thing down.
Good night all.
Yes 37 (+2)
No 52 (-1)
changes since last yougov poll for the Scottish SUn end of Feb
Fieldwork dates 20-24 March.
Gender gap closing
WTF was that original tweet about then, talk about hyping up a boring result.
'no one' is the correct answer, I think.
Has anyone else on PB seen it? I'd be interested to know what people think:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/under_the_skin_2013/
I’ve been waiting years for this opportunity, and I won’t be wasting it":
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/nigel-farage-my-live-debate-with-nick-clegg-is-upon-us-does-he-realise-what-is-about-to-hit-him-9214761.html
For all the criticism of the Better Together campaign from some quarters on this site, I bet the Labour supporters here wish that their party had been polling that far ahead of the Conservatives so as to allow a far more comfortable cushion when a swing back occurred.
It was bo**ocks then, and it remains so now. A newly Independent Scotland is no more likely to suddenly become more rightwing than the UK did back in 1997, or in the intervening years since then. But a Scotland who votes No in September might just be more amenable to a Westminster Conservative Government come the 2015 GE....