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You’ve never had it so good – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,318
edited February 19 in General
You’ve never had it so good – politicalbetting.com

While official figures show average wages are outpacing inflation, 78% of Britons feel that prices are rising faster than their incomePrices are rising faster than my income: 78%My income is keeping pace with prices: 13%My income is rising faster than prices: 1%yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…

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Comments

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,722
    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,948
    I’ve had one pay rise in 8 years…

    Costs are up dramatically over that period.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,560
    My income is rising faster than prices: 1%

    This place probably has more of the 1% than most anywhere outside a Davos gathering...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,152
    I think it just that people take a longer perspective.

    Over the last 3 years the Cost of living has probably exceeded income for many of us. Not just inflation, but also the rise in mortgage interest rates.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,152
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,384
    edited February 19
    https://x.com/ONS/status/1892106935580639473


    Office for National Statistics (ONS)
    @ONS
    Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024.


    Sky were saying it was going to be 2.8% (and, even suggested it might be lower and things were looking good). It's something that really annoys me. Don't speculate on figures that will be announced in less than hour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,515
    ajb said:

    Both things can be true if average wages outpace inflation, but median wages do not.

    Furthermore both are true over a slightly longer timescale than right now. Most people in this country lost a serious amount of purchasing power as a result of the gas inflation blip. Wages are increasing in real terms right now but anyone with a memory longer than a goldfish will know that what they are seeking to do is scramble back some of the losses of real wages in the last 2 years to get back to where they were. Which is why they answer as they do.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,922
    There’s some other factors here

    1) the big price rises that have changed spending patterns are now baked in. That these higher prices are not rising with *average* wages is nice. But won’t make people feel better off.
    2) *average* wages is a story in itself. What is the actual breakdown? Is it segmented?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,527
    edited February 19
    The lesson from the US election is inflation is (politically) almost entirely independent of other factors. People could be getting 10% pay rises and still blame the government for eggs going up 20p.

    (Bad news for Labour = ONS back to gold standard ;) )
  • I guess AUKUS will get the NATO treatment next from Trump.

    Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney

    ‘Unprecedented’ manoeuvre comes as Beijing projects power further in Pacific


    https://www.ft.com/content/fda734fc-6023-4ad9-b3ae-33234ee40505
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,708
    Isn’t this about different time windows? Wages were rising faster than inflation in Sep-Nov 2024, if I’ve understood the figures. However, I suspect when people answer the polling question, they think about what has happened over the last couple of years or more.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,515
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/ONS/status/1892106935580639473


    Office for National Statistics (ONS)
    @ONS
    Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024.


    Sky were saying it was going to be 2.8%. It's something that really annoys me. Don't speculate on figures that will be announced in less than hour.

    I think what Sky were doing was reporting market expectations. The fact that market expectations have been exceeded on the downside is significant. This will make it harder for the Bank to cut base rates again for at least a few months.

    Yet another impact of a truly catastrophic budget where costs were dumped on employers to hide the tax increase. The result is that they are having to increase prices. Who could possibly have foreseen such a consequence?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,198
    F1: Monaco to have two stops to try and stop it being really shit again this year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/cj92l2lw274o
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,937
    edited February 19

    I guess AUKUS will get the NATO treatment next from Trump.

    Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney

    ‘Unprecedented’ manoeuvre comes as Beijing projects power further in Pacific


    https://www.ft.com/content/fda734fc-6023-4ad9-b3ae-33234ee40505

    Is Five Eyes still a thing? Probably six eyes now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,493
    edited February 19
    Normally you get this sort of poll finding when prices that are very visible and people pay frequently, such as for food or fuel, are rising faster than prices that people pay only occasionally yet figure heavily in the formula, like insurance or air fares.

    That was the case after the pandemic, but I don’t think it’s the case now?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,794
    Foxy said:

    I think it just that people take a longer perspective.

    Over the last 3 years the Cost of living has probably exceeded income for many of us. Not just inflation, but also the rise in mortgage interest rates.

    Also, people notice the prices that have risen faster than wages more than the prices that haven't.

    But yes, when official figures show average wages rising faster than inflation, they probably don't mean median take home pay compared with CPIH
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,515

    I guess AUKUS will get the NATO treatment next from Trump.

    Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney

    ‘Unprecedented’ manoeuvre comes as Beijing projects power further in Pacific


    https://www.ft.com/content/fda734fc-6023-4ad9-b3ae-33234ee40505

    This is going to be AUKward.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,722

    Isn’t this about different time windows? Wages were rising faster than inflation in Sep-Nov 2024, if I’ve understood the figures. However, I suspect when people answer the polling question, they think about what has happened over the last couple of years or more.

    While this is true, I also suspect that if the time frames were reversed, people would also focus on the price increase rather than the long term wage growth. People know that if they say things are okay, governments might be less scared!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,018
    edited February 19

    I guess AUKUS will get the NATO treatment next from Trump.

    Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney

    ‘Unprecedented’ manoeuvre comes as Beijing projects power further in Pacific


    https://www.ft.com/content/fda734fc-6023-4ad9-b3ae-33234ee40505

    AUKUS is a good deal for the US and doesn't commit them to do shit for Australia. They recently got a $500m shakedown payment out of Australia. Trump likes that sort of thing.

    ANZUS does have some very vague mutual security commitments but we can all estimate the current worth of that agreement.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,794
    edited February 19

    It is self evident that the Business Secretary has committed a criminal offence by describing himself as a "Solicitor" when non-articled trainee clerk would have been the correct designation. That is straight forward.

    However, as a member of the legal profession surely there is also a duty on Starmer to ensure those who work with him are properly described, in the same way as a doctor has a duty to report fellow "doctors" if it transpires they might not have elementary competence. Particularly now it has come to light is Starmer not in real jepardy if he does not remove the whip from Reynolds with all convenient haste ?

    FPT

    In true PB tradition this isn’t technically correct. A trainee solicitor can legitimately call themselves a “trainee solicitor”. I don’t know what this chap referred to himself as but “an articled clerk” hasn’t been a thing in England and Wales for over 30 years.

    Section 21 of the Solicitors Act 1974 states:

    “Any unqualified person who wilfully pretends to be, or takes or uses any name, title, addition or description implying that he is, qualified or recognised by law as qualified to act as a solicitor shall be guilty of an offence and liable on summary conviction to a fine not exceeding the fourth level on the standard scale.”
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,583
    Perhaps the media would like to ask Farage and the rest of the Trump arselickers whether they agree that Ukraine started the war.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,394
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/ONS/status/1892106935580639473


    Office for National Statistics (ONS)
    @ONS
    Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024.


    Sky were saying it was going to be 2.8%. It's something that really annoys me. Don't speculate on figures that will be announced in less than hour.

    I think what Sky were doing was reporting market expectations. The fact that market expectations have been exceeded on the downside is significant. This will make it harder for the Bank to cut base rates again for at least a few months.

    Yet another impact of a truly catastrophic budget where costs were dumped on employers to hide the tax increase. The result is that they are having to increase prices. Who could possibly have foreseen such a consequence?
    I don't understand the wobble. Prices *fell* by 0.6% in January 2024, I think due to a big fall in energy prices. So an increase last month in the annualised figure was surely nailed on. Prices actually fell by 0.1% last month. You would expect the annualised rate to fall back in the next couple of months, when prices rise by 0.6% in both Feb and Mar 2024
  • DavidL said:

    ajb said:

    Both things can be true if average wages outpace inflation, but median wages do not.

    Furthermore both are true over a slightly longer timescale than right now. Most people in this country lost a serious amount of purchasing power as a result of the gas inflation blip. Wages are increasing in real terms right now but anyone with a memory longer than a goldfish will know that what they are seeking to do is scramble back some of the losses of real wages in the last 2 years to get back to where they were. Which is why they answer as they do.
    See also: Norman Lamont's Green Shoots. Or the way that days have been getting longer since the turn of the year, but it's only the last few weeks where it has felt like it.

    Humans tend to be pretty bad at identifying the "end of the beginning" in a turning point (and this might not even be that). Maybe we're right to be suspicious of it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,493
    Foxy said:
    Tbf it was how the US was dealing with it, until the guy won again and pardoned himself
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,152
    edited February 19
    EPG said:

    Isn’t this about different time windows? Wages were rising faster than inflation in Sep-Nov 2024, if I’ve understood the figures. However, I suspect when people answer the polling question, they think about what has happened over the last couple of years or more.

    While this is true, I also suspect that if the time frames were reversed, people would also focus on the price increase rather than the long term wage growth. People know that if they say things are okay, governments might be less scared!
    There hasn't been long term wage growth, at least not in real terms. Not since 2008 anyway.



    I think that graph explains a lot of the discontent around the country over the last years.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,433
    FPT:
    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    So I wonder how Starmer will play his US visit. There’s a decent chance that Trump will try to humiliate / string arm him. How do you assert yourself, make your case, brush off insults without taking too much shit or breaking bridges.

    The lawyer training might offer some protection. But good grief this is a tough gig.

    Strong, resolute, forceful; including in the presser. Trump won’t respect conciliatory. And one hopes the Prince of Darkness has been working his magic.
    Mandelson might turn out to have been an inspired appointment. I suspect he can play Trump nearly as well as Putin can.
  • nico67 said:

    Perhaps the media would like to ask Farage and the rest of the Trump arselickers whether they agree that Ukraine started the war.

    Same procedure as usual. Blame Harris and Biden for being unelectably woke.

    Trump boosters have had to overlook his actions in January 2021. If they can excuse that, they can excuse anything.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,417
    EPG said:

    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.

    I’m afraid I have to disagree on this one minor point

    People ARE stupid
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,937
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:
    Tbf it was how the US was dealing with it, until the guy won again and pardoned himself
    The moment to end this was when the senate had the opportunity to convict. Sadly the partisan pressure won the day. There were moments later to stop the descent, but after this the task was far harder.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,948

    It is self evident that the Business Secretary has committed a criminal offence by describing himself as a "Solicitor" when non-articled trainee clerk would have been the correct designation. That is straight forward.

    However, as a member of the legal profession surely there is also a duty on Starmer to ensure those who work with him are properly described, in the same way as a doctor has a duty to report fellow "doctors" if it transpires they might not have elementary competence. Particularly now it has come to light is Starmer not in real jepardy if he does not remove the whip from Reynolds with all convenient haste ?

    FPT

    In true PB tradition this isn’t technically correct. A trainee solicitor can legitimately call themselves a “trainee solicitor”. I don’t know what this chap referred to himself as but “an articled clerk” hasn’t been a thing in England and Wales for over 30 years.

    Section 21 of the Solicitors Act 1974 states:

    “Any unqualified person who wilfully pretends to be, or takes or uses any name, title, addition or description implying that he is, qualified or recognised by law as qualified to act as a solicitor shall be guilty of an offence and liable on summary conviction to a fine not exceeding the fourth
    level on the standard scale.”

    He told the Commons that he worked as a solicitor in Manchester before changing career.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-jonathan-reynolds-cv-business-secretary-b1211954.html

    Apparently there are also misleading linked in snaps on Guido but I haven’t checked that website.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,458
    Dura_Ace said:

    I guess AUKUS will get the NATO treatment next from Trump.

    Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney

    ‘Unprecedented’ manoeuvre comes as Beijing projects power further in Pacific


    https://www.ft.com/content/fda734fc-6023-4ad9-b3ae-33234ee40505

    AUKUS is a good deal for the US and doesn't commit them to do shit for Australia. They recently got a $500m shakedown payment out of Australia. Trump likes that sort of thing.

    ANZUS does have some very vague mutual security commitments but we can all estimate the current worth of that agreement.
    It's been excellent news for Taiwan, who is buying the submarines from the French that the Australians were originally planning to purchase.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,922
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:
    Tbf it was how the US was dealing with it, until the guy won again and pardoned himself
    A legal system that can’t bring charges, in 4 years, for a crime committed on live TV, must take some of the blame.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,125
    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.

    I’m afraid I have to disagree on this one minor point

    People ARE stupid
    There's a difference between ignorance and stupidity. People tend to be ignorant, but not stupid, in my experience.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,417
    Dura_Ace said:

    I guess AUKUS will get the NATO treatment next from Trump.

    Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney

    ‘Unprecedented’ manoeuvre comes as Beijing projects power further in Pacific


    https://www.ft.com/content/fda734fc-6023-4ad9-b3ae-33234ee40505

    AUKUS is a good deal for the US and doesn't commit them to do shit for Australia. They recently got a $500m shakedown payment out of Australia. Trump likes that sort of thing.

    ANZUS does have some very vague mutual security commitments but we can all estimate the current worth of that agreement.
    Yes. AUKUS is strategically useful for the USA unlike NATO which is a bit of a drag. Australia cannot by itself defend the south indo pacific it NEEDS American help (unlike Europeans in Europe). And the Pacific is the future battleground between the USA and China - hence the insanity of our behaviour in the Chagos
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,394

    It is self evident that the Business Secretary has committed a criminal offence by describing himself as a "Solicitor" when non-articled trainee clerk would have been the correct designation. That is straight forward.

    However, as a member of the legal profession surely there is also a duty on Starmer to ensure those who work with him are properly described, in the same way as a doctor has a duty to report fellow "doctors" if it transpires they might not have elementary competence. Particularly now it has come to light is Starmer not in real jepardy if he does not remove the whip from Reynolds with all convenient haste ?

    FPT

    In true PB tradition this isn’t technically correct. A trainee solicitor can legitimately call themselves a “trainee solicitor”. I don’t know what this chap referred to himself as but “an articled clerk” hasn’t been a thing in England and Wales for over 30 years.

    Section 21 of the Solicitors Act 1974 states:

    “Any unqualified person who wilfully pretends to be, or takes or uses any name, title, addition or description implying that he is, qualified or recognised by law as qualified to act as a solicitor shall be guilty of an offence and liable on summary conviction to a fine not exceeding the fourth
    level on the standard scale.”

    He told the Commons that he worked as a solicitor in Manchester before changing career.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-jonathan-reynolds-cv-business-secretary-b1211954.html

    Apparently there are also misleading linked in snaps on Guido but I haven’t checked that website.
    Surely the offence is to practise as a solicitor when you are not qualified to be one, not to leave out the word "trainee" on a CV for a non-legal job.

    It would be interesting to get a representative sample of CVs from a range of senior people and see how many have been embellished in some way, I would suspect all of them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,152
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/ONS/status/1892106935580639473


    Office for National Statistics (ONS)
    @ONS
    Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024.


    Sky were saying it was going to be 2.8%. It's something that really annoys me. Don't speculate on figures that will be announced in less than hour.

    I think what Sky were doing was reporting market expectations. The fact that market expectations have been exceeded on the downside is significant. This will make it harder for the Bank to cut base rates again for at least a few months.

    Yet another impact of a truly catastrophic budget where costs were dumped on employers to hide the tax increase. The result is that they are having to increase prices. Who could possibly have foreseen such a consequence?
    The NI on employers starts in 6 weeks doesn't it? So wouldn't be affecting inflation yet.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,417

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.

    I’m afraid I have to disagree on this one minor point

    People ARE stupid
    There's a difference between ignorance and stupidity. People tend to be ignorant, but not stupid, in my experience.
    Average iq is 100. Anyone with an iq under that is dumb as a daffodil. Thats half of humans right there

    Anyone with an iq under 115 is not exactly bright

    So yeah the majority of humans are fucking idiots. Hence the failure of democracy
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,181

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:
    Tbf it was how the US was dealing with it, until the guy won again and pardoned himself
    A legal system that can’t bring charges, in 4 years, for a crime committed on live TV, must take some of the blame.
    Not any old crime either.



  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,417
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I guess AUKUS will get the NATO treatment next from Trump.

    Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney

    ‘Unprecedented’ manoeuvre comes as Beijing projects power further in Pacific


    https://www.ft.com/content/fda734fc-6023-4ad9-b3ae-33234ee40505

    AUKUS is a good deal for the US and doesn't commit them to do shit for Australia. They recently got a $500m shakedown payment out of Australia. Trump likes that sort of thing.

    ANZUS does have some very vague mutual security commitments but we can all estimate the current worth of that agreement.
    It's been excellent news for Taiwan, who is buying the submarines from the French that the Australians were originally planning to purchase.
    Much good it will do them. Xi jinping is going to strange Taiwan into submission and the Americans will shrug
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,583

    nico67 said:

    Perhaps the media would like to ask Farage and the rest of the Trump arselickers whether they agree that Ukraine started the war.

    Same procedure as usual. Blame Harris and Biden for being unelectably woke.

    Trump boosters have had to overlook his actions in January 2021. If they can excuse that, they can excuse anything.
    True. Trump is now exacting revenge on Zelenskyy for not going along with his plans . I can only wonder what most European leaders thought when Trump last night confirmed he’s working on Putins behalf.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,181
    Telegraph blaming private school fees for all the inflation.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,794
    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:
    Tbf it was how the US was dealing with it, until the guy won again and pardoned himself
    The moment to end this was when the senate had the opportunity to convict. Sadly the partisan pressure won the day. There were moments later to stop the descent, but after this the task was far harder.
    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/how-mitch-mcconnell-blew-americas-best-chance-to-stop-trump

    McConnell, still Kentucky’s senior senator, has been showing curious signs of rebellion—voting against the confirmation of Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, and providing the only Republican vote against Tulsi Gabbard’s nomination as director of national intelligence. (Another no vote, on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to be secretary of health and human services, may be yet to come.) But above the talk of a liberated McConnell in his YOLO phase hangs a bitter irony: For a few weeks in January and February 2021, McConnell held a unique power to stop Trump, once and for all.

    That was the brief time when McConnell seriously considered voting to convict Trump on an impeachment charge relating to his role in the January 6 insurrection. Had he done so, and had he used his peerless vote-whipping prowess to scrounge up the nine additional Republicans necessary to convict the then disgraced ex-president, Trump could have been constitutionally barred from ever again holding “any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States.” His vengeful quest to return to power could have died in its infancy.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,125
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.

    I’m afraid I have to disagree on this one minor point

    People ARE stupid
    There's a difference between ignorance and stupidity. People tend to be ignorant, but not stupid, in my experience.
    Average iq is 100. Anyone with an iq under that is dumb as a daffodil. Thats half of humans right there

    Anyone with an iq under 115 is not exactly bright

    So yeah the majority of humans are fucking idiots. Hence the failure of democracy
    Half of people have below median intelligence, yes. Half of people are of below median height, too - but that doesn't mean that people are short.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,227

    Back to European defence, for a moment.

    It seems to me that the Poles are the ones out in front on this. A massive re-armament, in depth. Further, basing this on weapons that don’t come with strings in their usage.

    Indeed. Ditto Finland.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,948

    It is self evident that the Business Secretary has committed a criminal offence by describing himself as a "Solicitor" when non-articled trainee clerk would have been the correct designation. That is straight forward.

    However, as a member of the legal profession surely there is also a duty on Starmer to ensure those who work with him are properly described, in the same way as a doctor has a duty to report fellow "doctors" if it transpires they might not have elementary competence. Particularly now it has come to light is Starmer not in real jepardy if he does not remove the whip from Reynolds with all convenient haste ?

    FPT

    In true PB tradition this isn’t technically correct. A trainee solicitor can legitimately call themselves a “trainee solicitor”. I don’t know what this chap referred to himself as but “an articled clerk” hasn’t been a thing in England and Wales for over 30 years.

    Section 21 of the Solicitors Act 1974 states:

    “Any unqualified person who wilfully pretends to be, or takes or uses any name, title, addition or description implying that he is, qualified or recognised by law as qualified to act as a solicitor shall be guilty of an offence and liable on summary conviction to a fine not exceeding the fourth
    level on the standard scale.”

    He told the Commons that he worked as a solicitor in Manchester before changing career.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-jonathan-reynolds-cv-business-secretary-b1211954.html

    Apparently there are also misleading linked in snaps on Guido but I haven’t checked that website.
    Surely the offence is to practise as a solicitor when you are not qualified to be one, not to leave out the word "trainee" on a CV for a non-legal job.

    It would be interesting to get a
    representative sample of CVs from a range of senior people and see how many have been embellished in some way, I would suspect all of them.
    I assumed though but @Gallowgate ’s quote from the act suggests not.

    In my view he’s broken the law (strict liability) and the punishment should be a conditional discharge.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,335
    edited February 19
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/ONS/status/1892106935580639473


    Office for National Statistics (ONS)
    @ONS
    Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024.


    Sky were saying it was going to be 2.8%. It's something that really annoys me. Don't speculate on figures that will be announced in less than hour.

    I think what Sky were doing was reporting market expectations. The fact that market expectations have been exceeded on the downside is significant. This will make it harder for the Bank to cut base rates again for at least a few months.

    Yet another impact of a truly catastrophic budget where costs were dumped on employers to hide the tax increase. The result is that they are having to increase prices. Who could possibly have foreseen such a consequence?
    The NI on employers starts in 6 weeks doesn't it? So wouldn't be affecting inflation yet.
    Not true at all as companies often raise prices in anticipation of cost changes, particularly in an over-regulated, over-rigid economy with too little competition like ours.

    Weirdly, companies in such an economy tend to be much slower to reduce prices when costs are expected to fall.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,527
    edited February 19

    Telegraph blaming private school fees for all the inflation.

    That's true to an extent, if you read the ONS report.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,152
    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/ONS/status/1892106935580639473


    Office for National Statistics (ONS)
    @ONS
    Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024.


    Sky were saying it was going to be 2.8%. It's something that really annoys me. Don't speculate on figures that will be announced in less than hour.

    I think what Sky were doing was reporting market expectations. The fact that market expectations have been exceeded on the downside is significant. This will make it harder for the Bank to cut base rates again for at least a few months.

    Yet another impact of a truly catastrophic budget where costs were dumped on employers to hide the tax increase. The result is that they are having to increase prices. Who could possibly have foreseen such a consequence?
    The NI on employers starts in 6 weeks doesn't it? So wouldn't be affecting inflation yet.
    Not true at all as companies often raise prices in anticipation of cost changes, particularly in an over-regulated, over-rigid economy with too little competition like ours.
    It isn't what the ONS says:

    The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2025, up from 2.5% in the 12 months to December 2024.

    On a monthly basis, CPI fell by 0.1% in January 2025, compared with a 0.6% fall in January 2024.

    The largest upward contribution to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates came from transport, and food and non-alcoholic beverages; the largest downward contribution to both came from housing and household
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,818
    Jonathan said:

    I guess AUKUS will get the NATO treatment next from Trump.

    Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney

    ‘Unprecedented’ manoeuvre comes as Beijing projects power further in Pacific


    https://www.ft.com/content/fda734fc-6023-4ad9-b3ae-33234ee40505

    Is Five Eyes still a thing? Probably six eyes now.
    soon to be 2 eyes
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    About a third of the items on my weekly shop have gone up by well over 10% compared to a fortnight ago.

    Lollies £1.70 to £2.25

    Bacon £1.65 to £2

    Rice pudding 25p to 29p

    None of these were on offer a fortnight ago so just price hikes
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,433
    ajb said:

    Both things can be true if average wages outpace inflation, but median wages do not.

    A pedant writes: the median is a type of average.

    I assume you mean mean average compared to median average.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,768
    maxh said:

    FPT:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    So I wonder how Starmer will play his US visit. There’s a decent chance that Trump will try to humiliate / string arm him. How do you assert yourself, make your case, brush off insults without taking too much shit or breaking bridges.

    The lawyer training might offer some protection. But good grief this is a tough gig.

    Strong, resolute, forceful; including in the presser. Trump won’t respect conciliatory. And one hopes the Prince of Darkness has been working his magic.
    Mandelson might turn out to have been an inspired appointment. I suspect he can play Trump nearly as well as Putin can.
    If only Mandy and Trump’s mutual friend was still around to help with said playing. There might even be kompromat tapes for extra influence.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/ONS/status/1892106935580639473


    Office for National Statistics (ONS)
    @ONS
    Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024.


    Sky were saying it was going to be 2.8%. It's something that really annoys me. Don't speculate on figures that will be announced in less than hour.

    I think what Sky were doing was reporting market expectations. The fact that market expectations have been exceeded on the downside is significant. This will make it harder for the Bank to cut base rates again for at least a few months.

    Yet another impact of a truly catastrophic budget where costs were dumped on employers to hide the tax increase. The result is that they are having to increase prices. Who could possibly have foreseen such a consequence?
    The NI on employers starts in 6 weeks doesn't it? So wouldn't be affecting inflation yet.
    You underestimate rampant capitalism.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,818

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.

    I’m afraid I have to disagree on this one minor point

    People ARE stupid
    There's a difference between ignorance and stupidity. People tend to be ignorant, but not stupid, in my experience.
    lots and lots of stupid as well as ignorant about I am afraid.
  • IanB2 said:

    Normally you get this sort of poll finding when prices that are very visible and people pay frequently, such as for food or fuel, are rising faster than prices that people pay only occasionally yet figure heavily in the formula, like insurance or air fares.

    That was the case after the pandemic, but I don’t think it’s the case now?

    That was exactly my suspicion - real inflation and paper inflation are not the same thing.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,794
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.

    I’m afraid I have to disagree on this one minor point

    People ARE stupid
    There's a difference between ignorance and stupidity. People tend to be ignorant, but not stupid, in my experience.
    Average iq is 100. Anyone with an iq under that is dumb as a daffodil. Thats half of humans right there

    Anyone with an iq under 115 is not exactly bright

    So yeah the majority of humans are fucking idiots. Hence the failure of democracy
    Carlin put it much better:

    “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

    Also, droning on about IQ all the time makes a person look, um, stupid. see also: D. Trump

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,468

    About a third of the items on my weekly shop have gone up by well over 10% compared to a fortnight ago.

    Lollies £1.70 to £2.25

    Bacon £1.65 to £2

    Rice pudding 25p to 29p

    None of these were on offer a fortnight ago so just price hikes

    The bars of chocolate you could get for £1 at the local shop not so long ago initially went up to £1.25, then £1.35, and on Monday I noticed that some of them now have a £1.50 price on them.

    3% my arse.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,335

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/ONS/status/1892106935580639473


    Office for National Statistics (ONS)
    @ONS
    Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024.


    Sky were saying it was going to be 2.8%. It's something that really annoys me. Don't speculate on figures that will be announced in less than hour.

    I think what Sky were doing was reporting market expectations. The fact that market expectations have been exceeded on the downside is significant. This will make it harder for the Bank to cut base rates again for at least a few months.

    Yet another impact of a truly catastrophic budget where costs were dumped on employers to hide the tax increase. The result is that they are having to increase prices. Who could possibly have foreseen such a consequence?
    The NI on employers starts in 6 weeks doesn't it? So wouldn't be affecting inflation yet.
    You underestimate rampant capitalism.
    If only.

    A country where government spending is 44% of the economy clearly doesn't have rampant capitalism or anything like it.

    Rampant oligopoly, rampant welfareism and rampant stagnation more like it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,068
    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.

    I’m afraid I have to disagree on this one minor point

    People ARE stupid
    Yes, the "Korean style armistice" is recent proof of that.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    We have had a proposal from our financial advisor to put some money offshore to defer tax.

    Can anyone explain in simple terms why it's worth it?
    As far as I understand we will end up paying exactly the same amount of tax when it is brought back as we would if it was in UK.

    Am I missing something?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,611

    maxh said:

    FPT:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    So I wonder how Starmer will play his US visit. There’s a decent chance that Trump will try to humiliate / string arm him. How do you assert yourself, make your case, brush off insults without taking too much shit or breaking bridges.

    The lawyer training might offer some protection. But good grief this is a tough gig.

    Strong, resolute, forceful; including in the presser. Trump won’t respect conciliatory. And one hopes the Prince of Darkness has been working his magic.
    Mandelson might turn out to have been an inspired appointment. I suspect he can play Trump nearly as well as Putin can.
    If only Mandy and Trump’s mutual friend was still around to help with said playing. There might even be kompromat tapes for extra influence.
    Heh. Maybe that’s what Starmer will lead with? “Donald I am going to play a tape…”
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,818
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I guess AUKUS will get the NATO treatment next from Trump.

    Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney

    ‘Unprecedented’ manoeuvre comes as Beijing projects power further in Pacific


    https://www.ft.com/content/fda734fc-6023-4ad9-b3ae-33234ee40505

    AUKUS is a good deal for the US and doesn't commit them to do shit for Australia. They recently got a $500m shakedown payment out of Australia. Trump likes that sort of thing.

    ANZUS does have some very vague mutual security commitments but we can all estimate the current worth of that agreement.
    It's been excellent news for Taiwan, who is buying the submarines from the French that the Australians were originally planning to purchase.
    Much good it will do them. Xi jinping is going to strange Taiwan into submission and the Americans will shrug
    They will not take on China for sure, they prefer to attack tiddlers.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,794
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I guess AUKUS will get the NATO treatment next from Trump.

    Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney

    ‘Unprecedented’ manoeuvre comes as Beijing projects power further in Pacific


    https://www.ft.com/content/fda734fc-6023-4ad9-b3ae-33234ee40505

    AUKUS is a good deal for the US and doesn't commit them to do shit for Australia. They recently got a $500m shakedown payment out of Australia. Trump likes that sort of thing.

    ANZUS does have some very vague mutual security commitments but we can all estimate the current worth of that agreement.
    It's been excellent news for Taiwan, who is buying the submarines from the French that the Australians were originally planning to purchase.
    Much good it will do them. Xi jinping is going to strange Taiwan into submission and the Americans will shrug
    So why are you worrying about the Chagos Islands?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,818
    maxh said:

    FPT:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    So I wonder how Starmer will play his US visit. There’s a decent chance that Trump will try to humiliate / string arm him. How do you assert yourself, make your case, brush off insults without taking too much shit or breaking bridges.

    The lawyer training might offer some protection. But good grief this is a tough gig.

    Strong, resolute, forceful; including in the presser. Trump won’t respect conciliatory. And one hopes the Prince of Darkness has been working his magic.
    Mandelson might turn out to have been an inspired appointment. I suspect he can play Trump nearly as well as Putin can.
    You think another lying fcukwit joining in is the answer.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    About a third of the items on my weekly shop have gone up by well over 10% compared to a fortnight ago.

    Lollies £1.70 to £2.25

    Bacon £1.65 to £2

    Rice pudding 25p to 29p

    None of these were on offer a fortnight ago so just price hikes

    The bars of chocolate you could get for £1 at the local shop not so long ago initially went up to £1.25, then £1.35, and on Monday I noticed that some of them now have a £1.50 price on them.

    3% my arse.
    I think Sainsburys tend to raise prices once a year barring unusual circumstances and I guess holding some staples like 4pts of milk at £1.45 requires increases elsewhere but I was surprised at the number of over 10% rises.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,417
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.

    I’m afraid I have to disagree on this one minor point

    People ARE stupid
    Yes, the "Korean style armistice" is recent proof of that.
    You’re basically a human slug. No. You’re basically the kind of creature that lives in the toilets used by human slugs when they go to the toilet, that’s what I think of you
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,232
    edited February 19
    Just paid my yearly £47 to the ICO for the privilege of owning a limited company which keeps a spreadsheet of customer details.

    Why can't they be funded out of fines?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 12,708
    maxh said:

    ajb said:

    Both things can be true if average wages outpace inflation, but median wages do not.

    A pedant writes: the median is a type of average.

    I assume you mean mean average compared to median average.
    Pedant here. I presume you mean the arithmetic mean rather than the geometric mean or harmonic mean.
  • Smart51Smart51 Posts: 67
    Pay might be rising faster than inflation *this year*, but over the last 10 years it has not. Whoever is behind this poll is comparing it to one fact, the people answering the poll are comparing it to another.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,794
    Eabhal said:

    Telegraph blaming private school fees for all the inflation.

    That's true to an extent, if you read the ONS report.
    how can 'all' be 'true to an extent'?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    kamski said:

    We have had a proposal from our financial advisor to put some money offshore to defer tax.

    Can anyone explain in simple terms why it's worth it?
    As far as I understand we will end up paying exactly the same amount of tax when it is brought back as we would if it was in UK.

    Am I missing something?

    are YOU missing something? what have you done with Comrade BJO?
    I think it's a joint decision and Mrs BJO was shocked at the tax bill.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,468

    We have had a proposal from our financial advisor to put some money offshore to defer tax.

    Can anyone explain in simple terms why it's worth it?
    As far as I understand we will end up paying exactly the same amount of tax when it is brought back as we would if it was in UK.

    Am I missing something?

    The financial advisor earns commission?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,152

    We have had a proposal from our financial advisor to put some money offshore to defer tax.

    Can anyone explain in simple terms why it's worth it?
    As far as I understand we will end up paying exactly the same amount of tax when it is brought back as we would if it was in UK.

    Am I missing something?

    Presumably the idea is to defer tax to a time that you are on a lower rate.

    For a similar example getting pension tax relief at 40% but being a basic rate taxpayer when you take the pension.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,068

    It is self evident that the Business Secretary has committed a criminal offence by describing himself as a "Solicitor" when non-articled trainee clerk would have been the correct designation. That is straight forward.

    However, as a member of the legal profession surely there is also a duty on Starmer to ensure those who work with him are properly described, in the same way as a doctor has a duty to report fellow "doctors" if it transpires they might not have elementary competence. Particularly now it has come to light is Starmer not in real jepardy if he does not remove the whip from Reynolds with all convenient haste ?

    FPT

    In true PB tradition this isn’t technically correct. A trainee solicitor can legitimately call themselves a “trainee solicitor”. I don’t know what this chap referred to himself as but “an articled clerk” hasn’t been a thing in England and Wales for over 30 years.

    Section 21 of the Solicitors Act 1974 states:

    “Any unqualified person who wilfully pretends to be, or takes or uses any name, title, addition or description implying that he is, qualified or recognised by law as qualified to act as a solicitor shall be guilty of an offence and liable on summary conviction to a fine not exceeding the fourth
    level on the standard scale.”

    He told the Commons that he worked as a solicitor in Manchester before changing career.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-jonathan-reynolds-cv-business-secretary-b1211954.html

    Apparently there are also misleading linked in snaps on Guido but I haven’t checked that website.
    Surely the offence is to practise as a solicitor when you are not qualified to be one, not to leave out the word "trainee" on a CV for a non-legal job.

    It would be interesting to get a
    representative sample of CVs from a range of senior people and see how many have been embellished in some way, I would suspect all of them.
    I assumed though but @Gallowgate ’s quote from the act suggests not.

    In my view he’s broken the law (strict liability) and the punishment should be a conditional discharge.
    Is implying that you possibly were qualified to act as a solicitor the same as
    "...implying that he is qualified or recognised by law as qualified to act as a solicitor " ?

    In this case, where he was a trainee, perhaps not ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,068
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.

    I’m afraid I have to disagree on this one minor point

    People ARE stupid
    Yes, the "Korean style armistice" is recent proof of that.
    You’re basically a human slug. No. You’re basically the kind of creature that lives in the toilets used by human slugs when they go to the toilet, that’s what I think of you
    Yes, you do you.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,125
    Eabhal said:

    Telegraph blaming private school fees for all the inflation.

    That's true to an extent, if you read the ONS report.
    Contribution was well below 0.1pp. I think most analysts were expecting a bigger effect: private school fees rose less than 13% rather than passing on the full 20% implied by the VAT imposition.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    kamski said:

    We have had a proposal from our financial advisor to put some money offshore to defer tax.

    Can anyone explain in simple terms why it's worth it?
    As far as I understand we will end up paying exactly the same amount of tax when it is brought back as we would if it was in UK.

    Am I missing something?

    are YOU missing something? what have you done with Comrade BJO?
    "A friend of mine" has been turned into wr!!!

    Bloody autocorrect
  • Isn’t this about different time windows? Wages were rising faster than inflation in Sep-Nov 2024, if I’ve understood the figures. However, I suspect when people answer the polling question, they think about what has happened over the last couple of years or more.

    Some chap on telly saying much the same thing with a ginormous graph (35s video)
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/coAnaLQtNh0
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,417
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.

    I’m afraid I have to disagree on this one minor point

    People ARE stupid
    Yes, the "Korean style armistice" is recent proof of that.
    You’re basically a human slug. No. You’re basically the kind of creature that lives in the toilets used by human slugs when they go to the toilet, that’s what I think of you
    Yes, you do you.
    I was ‘aving a larf

    I’m quite fond of you, you weird old nerd. I admire - as I’ve said - the way you seek to defend people being bullied on here
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Foxy said:

    We have had a proposal from our financial advisor to put some money offshore to defer tax.

    Can anyone explain in simple terms why it's worth it?
    As far as I understand we will end up paying exactly the same amount of tax when it is brought back as we would if it was in UK.

    Am I missing something?

    Presumably the idea is to defer tax to a time that you are on a lower rate.

    For a similar example getting pension tax relief at 40% but being a basic rate taxpayer when you take the pension.
    Oh yes that could well be it I expect.

    Thanks
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    We have had a proposal from our financial advisor to put some money offshore to defer tax.

    Can anyone explain in simple terms why it's worth it?
    As far as I understand we will end up paying exactly the same amount of tax when it is brought back as we would if it was in UK.

    Am I missing something?

    The financial advisor earns commission?
    Well yeah but they are getting that on some of the UK investments. But we currently are manging most outside of their product which they get Commission on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,068

    About a third of the items on my weekly shop have gone up by well over 10% compared to a fortnight ago.

    Lollies £1.70 to £2.25

    Bacon £1.65 to £2

    Rice pudding 25p to 29p

    None of these were on offer a fortnight ago so just price hikes

    The bars of chocolate you could get for £1 at the local shop not so long ago initially went up to £1.25, then £1.35, and on Monday I noticed that some of them now have a £1.50 price on them.

    3% my arse.
    Food is one of the significant contributors to today's figures, and any rise is felt more by the less well off.
    And income inequality has been steadily rising for a while.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,741
    Foxy said:

    EPG said:

    Isn’t this about different time windows? Wages were rising faster than inflation in Sep-Nov 2024, if I’ve understood the figures. However, I suspect when people answer the polling question, they think about what has happened over the last couple of years or more.

    While this is true, I also suspect that if the time frames were reversed, people would also focus on the price increase rather than the long term wage growth. People know that if they say things are okay, governments might be less scared!
    There hasn't been long term wage growth, at least not in real terms. Not since 2008 anyway.



    I think that graph explains a lot of the discontent around the country over the last years.
    I'd be interested to see that extended back to the 1980s.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,121

    Foxy said:

    We have had a proposal from our financial advisor to put some money offshore to defer tax.

    Can anyone explain in simple terms why it's worth it?
    As far as I understand we will end up paying exactly the same amount of tax when it is brought back as we would if it was in UK.

    Am I missing something?

    Presumably the idea is to defer tax to a time that you are on a lower rate.

    For a similar example getting pension tax relief at 40% but being a basic rate taxpayer when you take the pension.
    Oh yes that could well be it I expect.

    Thanks
    I would get secondary advice there - That area of tax changed when the Personal Savings Allowance was introduced...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,121

    About a third of the items on my weekly shop have gone up by well over 10% compared to a fortnight ago.

    Lollies £1.70 to £2.25

    Bacon £1.65 to £2

    Rice pudding 25p to 29p

    None of these were on offer a fortnight ago so just price hikes

    The price rise I noticed was Tunnocks Caramels in Aldi from £1.60 (when last on the shelf) to £2.25

    I noticed because it's still 4 for £1 at Onestop and they are not renowned for bargain prices.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,583
    The GOP plans to help the poor !

    880 billion dollars of cuts to Medicaid and 230 billion dollars of cuts to food stamps .

    So that they can keep the tax cuts which overwhelmingly help the highest earners . But the price of eggs ……

    This is likely to lead to a government shutdown unless enough GOP balk at those proposals. The Dems busy trying to stop these cuts but will likely get little thanks from those who voted for Trump and really deserve to be fxcked.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,433
    malcolmg said:

    maxh said:

    FPT:

    biggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    So I wonder how Starmer will play his US visit. There’s a decent chance that Trump will try to humiliate / string arm him. How do you assert yourself, make your case, brush off insults without taking too much shit or breaking bridges.

    The lawyer training might offer some protection. But good grief this is a tough gig.

    Strong, resolute, forceful; including in the presser. Trump won’t respect conciliatory. And one hopes the Prince of Darkness has been working his magic.
    Mandelson might turn out to have been an inspired appointment. I suspect he can play Trump nearly as well as Putin can.
    You think another lying fcukwit joining in is the answer.
    At this stage, maybe (I did say 'might').
    We live in strange times, malc.
    To paraphrase: at least he's our lying fcukwit.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,633
    Are we allowed to call him a fascist yet?

    @adambienkov.bsky.social‬

    Here's the executive order just signed by Trump.

    One of the defining features of fascism is that the discretionary power of the leader always prevails over the rule of law.

    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3lijbctlpos2q
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,583
    Scott_xP said:

    Are we allowed to call him a fascist yet?

    @adambienkov.bsky.social‬

    Here's the executive order just signed by Trump.

    One of the defining features of fascism is that the discretionary power of the leader always prevails over the rule of law.

    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3lijbctlpos2q

    This will end up in the Supreme Court . There’s still a hope that enough judges will find this is a step too far.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,068
    Scott_xP said:

    Are we allowed to call him a fascist yet?

    @adambienkov.bsky.social‬

    Here's the executive order just signed by Trump.

    One of the defining features of fascism is that the discretionary power of the leader always prevails over the rule of law.

    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3lijbctlpos2q

    Note that Federal government lawyers swear an oath to uphold the Constitution. This purports to override that oath.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,594
    Scott_xP said:

    Are we allowed to call him a fascist yet?

    @adambienkov.bsky.social‬

    Here's the executive order just signed by Trump.

    One of the defining features of fascism is that the discretionary power of the leader always prevails over the rule of law.

    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3lijbctlpos2q

    I'm unsure calling Trump a fascist at the moment is useful. The problem is that, unlike terms such as 'dictator'. fascism is poorly defined, with many differing definitions that also cover other categories such as Communism. I'd strongly argue that Putin is a fascist, but others point at definitions where he is not. We end up arguing about definitions.

    And we should not let people think Trump is a-okay just because he is not a fascist.

    Trump may turn into a fascist; but it is also possible that he turns into something that is not fascist, but just as bad. A new category, all to himself and his acolytes. If so, that needs calling out just as much as if he was a fascist.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,068
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    People aren't stupid. They know that cheap talk about being poor will, all else equal, scare the government into giving out more stuff. Governments also aren't stupid and don't get goaded. So it's just cheap talk. Real terms consumer spending talks.

    I’m afraid I have to disagree on this one minor point

    People ARE stupid
    Yes, the "Korean style armistice" is recent proof of that.
    You’re basically a human slug. No. You’re basically the kind of creature that lives in the toilets used by human slugs when they go to the toilet, that’s what I think of you
    Yes, you do you.
    I was ‘aving a larf

    I’m quite fond of you, you weird old nerd. I admire - as I’ve said - the way you seek to defend people being bullied on here
    Somewhere in my mollusc brain, I detect a faint glow of affection.
  • WinchyWinchy Posts: 108
    edited February 19
    If there were an opposition in this country, it would publish a Real Inflation index based on what people really pay out in supermarkets and elsewhere. It would take into account offers and their absence, the fluctuating availability of similar goods with lower prices (e.g. own brand rather than non-own brand), and shrinkflation. It would say fuck the government's statistics - they're lies - and here are the latest tricks by the dirty bastards at Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury, Aldi, wherever.

    Of course no "expert" would want to be caught thinking for himself like this. It would be more than his job was worth. He'd be dissing the state and the "professionals". That's a no-no. He'd be rocking the boat, sawing through the branch he was sitting on, and doubtless other clichés could also be reached for.

    The RI index would be attacked by "experts", and the response from the truth side would be "Those bumsniffer experts would say exactly what they're saying, wouldn't they? We're not going to get sucked in and play their bullshit game with them."

    But no. There's no opposition. The masses watch politicians play the same old game with each other. As in other types of advertising, methods used for decades usually work well. There are simple rules for influencing behaviour. Nobody on the screen says in proper language what everyone in the working class knows: the retail price index is cock.

    Highly analogous points could be made regarding health, education, etc.
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