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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining
Quite a few PBers, I know, have been betting on the PaddyPower market on when there will be a crossover in the five times a week YouGov polls for News International.
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You said I'm wrong! Quite wrong. Seems unlikely. Unfortunately I can't open the attachment and have no idea what I'm wrong about.
FPT - You questioned my 1 seat for Ukip.
This is a tricky calculation and not based on a clear transfer of national polling. I term it a "Personality Seat". Much like Galloway or Lucas who are able to transcend normal party support for a one off local win.
Farage falls within this remit. I have had to assume he will stand in a significant Ukip target and then measure in other factors for a win at the margin.
The economy is improving and Labour look to be imploding.
Cost of Labour crisis continues...
It must go with being of the left to be a bit delusional, lacking in judgment, and unconcerned about giving hostages to fortune. As well as the wonderful Sheffield rally, Labour also has Sion Simon's unforgettable "fretful mazurka" moment. And there is David Steel's epic "Prepare for government" moment.
I can't recall any episodes of comparably farcical Tory hubris. Perhaps it is something that being naturally pragmatic tends to save you from?
However for Farage I modelled 3 seats that came out 1 win 1 loss and 1 too close to call. Finally I tipped a seat to Farage by a tight margin based on the balance of probability of the three.
Or it could be sheer bluster. Hmm.
Latest @YouGov polling figures show government approval at highest level since December 2010 - http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/mar/25/harriet-harman-says-labour-making-steady-progress-politics-live-blog#block-53314534e4b0356d17584413 …
That is really quite amazing given the stuff which has been thrown at this government
Labour and the 'left' are running the risk of having blown their wad too soon, they have nothing left in the tank to throw at the government.
But welcome to the site anyway!
I also think we should allow politicians some latitude as it's hardly fun to stare defeat in the face without wishing to give your supporters something to cheer over. A good example is the Sheffield rally. Kinnock has said he knew by the Sunday before the election that he'd lost but he was hardly going to admit it and likely lose by an even greater margin.
Interesting mindset
"No more boom & bust"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/03/harriet-harman-labour-is-making-steady-progress/
Very interesting arithmetic. Suppose Cameron offers to renew the coalition, and Clegg declines. (After all, the LD's have now got a record in government and Cameron would surely pay a higher price later in the Parliament.)
Labour now propose to introduce a Bill abolishing the "Five Year Act" (because they suspect Cameron will anyway if they don't). Should Cameron take it over? Should Clegg oppose it?
The LibDem seat total is more difficult to calculate. I'm more likely to wager on individual seats than the total as in 2010.
Overall if 05 or 10 are any guide my total liabilities will run into high five figures. Compared to my sports betting it remains on the low side mainly because of restricted opportunities and poor liquidity.
It seems the new Scarlet Johannson movie Under The Skin is a real marmite film. People either think it's one of the best films of the 21st century so far or they think it's absolutely dreadful:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1441395/reviews?start=0
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/under_the_skin_2013/
I'm aware Kinnock has claimed ex post that he knew he was going to lose, but I simply don't believe him. He was loving it at the Sheffield rally, and giving not the slightest inkling of knowing what was about to happen. If he had had an idea, a thoughtful leader would have completely repositioned the victory rally to send a different message. Rather than applauding themselves for having it in the bag, he could have made it a gathering to talk about the serious challenges afoot - how to rejoin the ERM; how to prolong the housing slump; which protections to reintroduce; how soon to surrender the Falklands; and whether to tax middle income earners at 50% or 80% to fund the clients and the payroll vote.
Instead he whooped, punched the air, screeched "Awright!!" and wheeled ghastly mediocrities like Harman onstage announced as "the Minister for..."
On balance Kinnock, while abjectly mediocre, was in some ways the better man than Miliband. Kinnock made his millions in the public sector for himself, paying for all his houses from all his salaries rather than inheriting them. Unlike Miliband he didn't rely on family connections to get in and to get ahead, and unlike Miliband he changed his image, wearing Armani suits and eating in expensive restaurants against his natural instincts because he knew looking proley wasn't working.
Miliband strikes me as another Kinnock, but without the latter's pithiness, intellect, or gravitas.
Greatly appreciate your fine arse JackW, but my best guess would be to reverse the Con and Lab seat totals.
............................................................
Thank you.
The latest forecast includes over 25 seats that are TCTC - Too Close To Call - below 500 votes with a majority tipping into the blue column this time.
Plenty of squeaky bums in May 2015 .... including the illustrious botty of one Nicholas Palmer.
Nigel Farage: Who Are You?
"Filmed over six months, controversial filmmaker Martin Durkin meets controversial UKIP leader and political whirlwind Nigel Farage, in the run-up to the European elections, at which some commentators predict Farage will lead UKIP to victory. They also believe he may stop the Conservatives from winning the general election.
A few years ago, no one had heard of Nigel Farage; now he's a major force in British politics. But who is Nigel Farage? Durkin finds out on a journey full of incident: drink in hand, Nigel guides viewers through his favourite watering holes in the City, and he sneaks the film crew into the Euro Parliament, only to be swiftly ejected.
From battling with protestors to keeping UKIP MEPs in line, Durkin gets to know the man who is turning British politics upside down."
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/nigel-farage-who-are-you
a) what is this "11/2 shot" you speak of?
b) I fear that you are labouring under the misapprehension that I am a bookmaker. I am not. You would be best to consult with Shadsy and his ilk.
You have to wonder how relevant Ed's cost of living crisis stuff will look this time next year.
The question is how much higher wage growth can go. Last weeks ONS figures showed pay rising 3.2% in manufacturing, 3% in construction and 3.7% in retail but how much will the national average figure be dragged down by the 1% cap on public sector pay. If inflation starts ticking up again, it will be very difficult to get a level of real wage growth that will make anyone feel better off.
Kinnock simply misjudged the mood that seemed in the hall to be a powerful and joyous endorsement but to many viewing on the box appeared way OTT.
IIRC Kinnock said he realized at the back of the campaign that events were moving against him when many of the voters wouldn't meet his eyes, more in sorrow than disdain, whereas earlier in the campaign he was welcomed more warmly.
1. Labour most seats in a hung Parliament
Very close 2. Tories most seats in a hung Parliament
Distant 3. Labour overall majority
Very distant 4. Tory overall majority
A year ago I'd have had the Labour majority in second place, but it's very hard to see that happening now. Though not as hard as it is to see a Tory majority.
The 11/2 shot was Ladbrokes price in early March on Scotland becoming an independent country
I thought you were of the opinion that Yes was more likely than No in the indy ref (odds on)
When I said you should be lumping on you said you were paying for an extension on the house or something, so couldn't. When you advised JackW to remortage over a more marginal call I thought Id mention it
I have backed Yes at ridiculously long odds at Betfair in the past (nearly 7 IIRCC), not because I believe that Yes will win (I don't), but simply because it was preposterously good value.
"How long, I asked playfully, before the Corporation started calling Vladimir Putin, a former KGB man who rails against Ukrainian nationalism, “Right-wing”? A BBC radio producer Tweeted back crossly that it was a perfectly fair way to describe him"
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100264819/the-bbc-will-in-effect-be-privatised-with-vast-consequences/
:-)
I suppose pound shops have to go somewhere but surely we don't need betting shops any more? There's this thing called the Internet...
Must have been @theuniondivvie or @malcolmg
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister ....
As long as he's got a crack up his [ ....... ] Append Suitable Bottom Term
Scottish Tories to take
Mundells seat
Berwick, Roxborough etc
Cover Dumfries and Galloway at 4s or better
If the referendum is a NO
Tories to take Banff and Buchan
Tory value in Argyll and Bute at current values
If the referendum is a YES
Cover SNP to take Fife NE
Worth a peek at SNP and Tory on a NO as Swing with no Ming and General Lib Dem meltdown north of the border
NO Tories in Edinburgh
Definitely No Tories in Renfrewshire
Absolutely No Tories in the upper highlands, Aberdeenshire West and Kinkypants is a non starter
Tory Scottish seats - 3 to 4
SNP seat - if YES, 12 plus, if NO 9 minus
England
Tories to take Berwick Upon Tweed with a large majority
Labour to regain Norwich North on a Kipper/Chloe split vote
UKIP to take Great Yarmouth in a tight three way with Con and Lab
Labour to take Redcar on a huge majority
Lib Dem regain Montgomery on a recount!!
Tory take Brecon and Radnor
Lib Dem wipe out in Cornwall
Labour regain Norwich South on a large majority
That'll do for now
BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26728774
"Mr Field said the immigration cap of “tens of thousands a year” pledged by David Cameron was “undeliverable” and kept out talented academics and entrepreneurs from outside the EU.......“In such a febrile atmosphere it has become almost impossible to have the rational debate we need. The relentless focus on immigration by the Conservative party seems to the outsider to border on near-obsession.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb179a1c-b279-11e3-8038-00144feabdc0.html
I lived in College Lane, Kentish Town for a couple of years with a mate who was an alcoholic crack smoker, and that's where he bought his Cilla from
I've worked there off and on since the late Eighties. It was grottier, but felt much safer then. I'd walk through Somers Town late at night, and not see a soul.
We actually won on the day - the postal votes sank us plus our failure to squeeze the LibDems - they still got 17%, helped by a Nottingham Post voodoo poll (of a few shoppers) showing them ahead of us and just behind the Tories, which they used to suppress the tactical vote. That is unlikely to happen again IMO - they still haven't even selected a candidate and nobody supposes they have a chance of winning.
As I say, Camden Town is not Hampstead, but compared to where it was it was it has come on leaps and bounds. But I remember when even Upper Street was considered bandit country. Inner North London is a different country these days.
No 53/47
However monitor tightening in line with polls.
Gut feeling - acrimoniously too close to call
Presently my ARSE has you back but just outside the TCTC range. Best get PtP back just in case.
How do you see the seat presently ?
I guess I first went to Camden in around 1990 as a teenager, and it doesn't seem to have changed that much to me since.. always been a bit scuzzy with a few nice parts... a mixture of wronguns and well meaning groovy leftie druggie types...bit more commercialised now I guess
*EDIT I guess I should recognise that I have changed a lot since 1990, when I was a druggie, lefty type.. Camden has probably changed, become more mainstream and straight, as I have, and that's why it seems not to have changed much to me
It has improved in the (gulp!) 23 years since I had a student job there, but it's also lost much of its character. The market's just poncey now. And I would still say large parts of it are a dump.
All of inner London is changing very fast. I was in a pub in Hackney the other day, packed to the gunnels with young sloanes who presumably can't afford Parsons Green any more.
I've often wondered if the change is quick and powerful enough to affect some inner London constituencies, which is why I mentioned Tooting.
To my mind that is healthy debate not "blue on blue incoming" or whatever trite gag you choose to use
Enough to substantially affect the voting in any of the inner London seats? That is what makes it interesting for me.
He can influence the level of inflation. Good economic management is a big part of his success story, not just luck.
Sadly, I cannot locate the quote. It might have been in an interview rather than a book ...
I bet almost every day, on sports, I have won on every match so far in the T20 where you can get great odds on almost every match at some point and being a contrarian and not wanting to lose a lot of money I tend to make small stakes where there are reasonable odds which you can back and lay throughout the match. That's why I say 2.7 on a Con majority is not worth the candle one year out.
I took Mr Smithson's advice and put a fiver on the Indy ref but closed it out because I couldn't be bothered to wait, and no I didn't make any money on that even though the odds have come in now. Good spot Mr Smithson.
If you are talking dead certs everyone here should have put as much as possible on the Women's T20 NZ v Ire, you could have got 1.2 on NZ, they romped home.
As far as 'imploding' over egging the pudding, look at their polling numbers at this point in the electoral cycle, they should be much better, then look at Miliband and his front bench. Maybe I should lay Labour :-)
http://redrag1.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/red-rag-moving-goalpost-on-gdp.html