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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t bet on a Tory Euro-win unless you expect a Blue lands

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited March 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t bet on a Tory Euro-win unless you expect a Blue landslide in 2015

William Hague was not a very successful leader of the opposition.  Against Blair’s prolonged political honeymoon, Hague’s Conservatives were regularly so far behind in the polls as to be out of sight.  Not only did they fail to gain a single seat during the parliament but they actually went backwards, losing Romsey to the Lib Dems.

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Comments

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Well-argued piece, David. I can't fault the logic of your last paragraph.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Well-argued piece, David. I can't fault the logic of your last paragraph.

    Indeed. In respect of your comment on the last post things feel very toppy even now.

    But someone today sent me a quote from my grandfather to a young American in the 50s:

    "The secret to being a successful banker is to lend money to people who don't need and to charge them more than you pay out on deposits."

    It really is that simple...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Front page,bottom of telegraph front page,Treasury is preparing a mansion tax for next year,says Danny Alexander.

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/95012/the_daily_telegraph_saturday_22nd_march_2014
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014
    Charles said:

    Indeed. In respect of your comment on the last post things feel very toppy even now.

    That's a rather separate point, since there are plenty of UK-quoted companies which aren't dependent on the UK economy (in fact most of the FTSE100) and which are reasonably Miliband-proof. In fact many of them would benefit from the lower pound likely to accompany damage to the UK economy. Whatever view you take on the overall price of developed-world stocks, my point is more about avoiding those particular stocks at greatest risk from political issues in the UK.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    That looks a sound analysis. One indication is how much literature people have already had. In Broxtowe, we've had a UKIP leaflet and we've partially put out our own. That's it. In London, nobody's sent me anything yet. My guess is that all parties are keeping their powder dry for 2015, except UKIP, who have something to prove.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics

    EXCL: Boris Johnson WILL run as an MP in 2015 now PM has cleared the way, friends claim: http://bit.ly/OIBuSn

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    A sound enough analysis. Second really seems like it would be a fantastic result, and I'm not sure how even the enthusiastic UKIP spinners could interpret that as anything but disappointing for them, but I still think the Tories will be pushed into third. On top of any other factors, the ability to express displeasure at the government of the day with zero risk is, as you say, a key factor.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    NickPalmer said:

    That looks a sound analysis. One indication is how much literature people have already had. In Broxtowe, we've had a UKIP leaflet and we've partially put out our own. That's it. In London, nobody's sent me anything yet. My guess is that all parties are keeping their powder dry for 2015, except UKIP, who have something to prove.

    You mean there are places the parties actually campaign for the Euros? I don't think I saw a single thing through the letterbox from any of them last time around. Odd, too, as unlike the GEs, there's a chance peoples' votes will make a difference in my tory heartland area.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Not completely sure that I agree with this. I think it is comparing apples and oranges.

    The reason the tories have traditionallly done well in the Euros are obvious.
    Firstly, their support tends to be older and more likely to vote even in elections that don't really matter like these.
    Secondly, tories by and large care more about europe than anyone else (we are talking quite a low bar here). Some tories care so much about europe they even vote UKIP.
    Thirdly, as David rightly says, the large constituencies rob Labour of most of their tactical advantages. There is no local organisation to talk of and almost no GOTV, no personal vote and who ever heard of a Euro MP doing anything for anybody who did not have a restaurant in Brussels?

    No doubt all of these matters contribute to the pathetic turnout which also does Labour no favours.

    Having fallen out with some of his paymasters and with his bank in hock I doubt the Labour party will spend a penny more than any euro subsidies they can get on these elections. How useful money is in such a non event is not clear but I have already bet Nick that turnout will fall once again.

    So I do not think that a tory success in these elections, which is possible as the UKIP bubble deflates, proves anything very much. Not that I wouldn't enjoy it of course.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    DavidL said:

    ... who ever heard of a Euro MP doing anything for anybody who did not have a restaurant in Brussels?

    Now that is surely unfair. I'm certain they also patronise local tailors, chocolatiers, bars and other trading establishments who occasionally need help from an MEP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Jonathan said:

    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.

    I thought it was a good speech. But it is hard for a speech on europe to have much impact on a european poll, funnily enough, at least round my way, because the local parties seem to deliberately avoid any substantive mention of europe, so even if I was tempted by such a speech, I have so little info in the run up to the election, and no effort to make me consider why it should matter, that voting on the basis of such an issue would seem pointless.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,460
    Good news:
    Just received an email offering us the opportunity to order *4* tickets to a Kate Bush concert 48 hours before they go on general sale. (Note: from a reputable source)

    Bad news:
    We might not be able to go.

    The quandary: do I order on the off-chance? Ordinarily it would be something that we'd reorganise our lives for (heck, I organised our wedding so I'd still be able to watch the F1 qualifying), but this may be ungetroundable. But we've been waiting almost all our lives for this.

    First world problems ... :-)
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    There always used to be a big difference in Lab election turnout depending on whether it was seen as important or not e.g. council vote turnout at GE or not GE. It should be possible now to calculate any narrowing in that turnout gap since postal voting. This would give an indication of how close/far the actual Lab vote at the Euros will be relative to the potential vote.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    'the huge constituencies turn the differential turnout which at Westminster is an advantage for Labour into a drawback for them.'

    Not sure that's accurate. Under (my) UNS simulations there still seems to be a bias to Labour under D'Hondt. I haven't done a full calculation using the Brookes algebra (complicated by the fact that the Euros are a multi-party election) but it looks like Labour does better in the smaller/lower turnout constituencies, producing a modest bias in their favour.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Have been reading Polly Toynbee's latest Re. Osborne's pension revolution.

    Boy is she bitter, LOL.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    FPT
    Richard Nabavi said:

    "Even though the markets are now aware of the Miliband risk, I don't think they've quite yet cottoned on to the no-viable-government risk, which IMHO is an even greater worry."

    You make it sound like these are different things Richard. Are you sure?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JosiasJessop said:

    Good news:
    Just received an email offering us the opportunity to order *4* tickets to a Kate Bush concert 48 hours before they go on general sale. (Note: from a reputable source)

    Bad news:
    We might not be able to go.

    The quandary: do I order on the off-chance? Ordinarily it would be something that we'd reorganise our lives for (heck, I organised our wedding so I'd still be able to watch the F1 qualifying), but this may be ungetroundable. But we've been waiting almost all our lives for this.

    First world problems ... :-)

    Buy them. And then if it doesn't work out you can trade in the secondary market.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    RodCrosby said:

    but it looks like Labour does better in the smaller/lower turnout constituencies.

    AKA "rotten boroughs?"

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.

    It wasn't that long ago that lefties were talking about "torybingo". And talking about it. And talking about it. And going on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it. And how it was as bad as Liam Byrne's "We've run out of money" letter, which admitted that Labour had bankrupted the nation, and thought it was funny.

    In fact it was just 48 hours ago when the Left went into a weird sexual spasm about a TWEETED poster referring to a tax cut on bingo, and this spasm is forgotten already, Why? Because anyone who did some of the spasming now recalls their involvement with a piercing wince of embarrassment.

    You're clearly still a bit sore after you called that one wrong. Your mojo has definitely deserted you of late.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.

    It wasn't that long ago that lefties were talking about "torybingo". And talking about it. And talking about it. And going on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it. And how it was as bad as Liam Byrne's "We've run out of money" letter, which admitted that Labour had bankrupted the nation, and thought it was funny.

    In fact it was just 48 hours ago when the Left went into a weird sexual spasm about a TWEETED poster referring to a tax cut on bingo, and this spasm is forgotten already, Why? Because anyone who did some of the spasming now recalls their involvement with a piercing wince of embarrassment.

    If only people did feel embarrassment over such things, but on either side of the political divide such self doubt would prevent formulating and spreading the next incredibly stupid forced 'trending' topic, so I suspect that just as Schapps presumably did not think the poster was a bit silly, the people who made a huge fuss over it for nothing presumably thought and think that it was a really good idea, heaven help us.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    GIN1138 said:

    Have been reading Polly Toynbee's latest Re. Osborne's pension revolution.

    Boy is she bitter, LOL.

    Link?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited March 2014
    Charles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Have been reading Polly Toynbee's latest Re. Osborne's pension revolution.

    Boy is she bitter, LOL.

    Link?
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/21/older-people-vote-george-osborne-budget

    The comments (as always) are far more fun than the article.

    Enjoy.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.

    It wasn't that long ago that lefties were talking about "torybingo". And talking about it. And talking about it. And going on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it. And how it was as bad as Liam Byrne's "We've run out of money" letter, which admitted that Labour had bankrupted the nation, and thought it was funny.

    In fact it was just 48 hours ago when the Left went into a weird sexual spasm about a TWEETED poster referring to a tax cut on bingo, and this spasm is forgotten already, Why? Because anyone who did some of the spasming now recalls their involvement with a piercing wince of embarrassment.

    If only people did feel embarrassment over such things, but on either side of the political divide such self doubt would prevent formulating and spreading the next incredibly stupid forced 'trending' topic, so I suspect that just as Schapps presumably did not think the poster was a bit silly, the people who made a huge fuss over it for nothing presumably thought and think that it was a really good idea, heaven help us.
    Actually I suspect most of the people in the spasm we just exhibiting herd behaviour. It just takes one wildebeest to see a lion and the whole lot starts to stampede.

    I suspect if you showed most of the the poster in isolation they wouldn't gave realised how incredible, unbelievably and mind blowingly offensive if was...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    letthemeatbingo

    The telegraph link someone posted of the reaction from the bingo hall summed it up well imo, did they like it yes, would it change their vote no.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    DavidL said:


    "Even though the markets are now aware of the Miliband risk, I don't think they've quite yet cottoned on to the no-viable-government risk, which IMHO is an even greater worry."

    You make it sound like these are different things Richard. Are you sure?

    No, I'm not, but the market commentary I've seen has mainly focused on whether the Conservatives or Labour will 'win'. But if neither 'win', we may end up with an even more dangerous situation than an outright Miliband majority - a weak Labour-led government in thrall to all sorts of vested interests, desperate for populist measures, and even more incapable of taking tough decisions than Miliband would be on his own.

  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,549
    So far this year I have had monthly leaflets from L and LD. In addition I have had a leaflet from UKIP and today one from the Greens.

    So far none from C.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    edited March 2014
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.

    It wasn't that long ago that lefties were talking about "torybingo". And talking about it. And talking about it. And going on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it. And how it was as bad as Liam Byrne's "We've run out of money" letter, which admitted that Labour had bankrupted the nation, and thought it was funny.

    In fact it was just 48 hours ago when the Left went into a weird sexual spasm about a TWEETED poster referring to a tax cut on bingo, and this spasm is forgotten already, Why? Because anyone who did some of the spasming now recalls their involvement with a piercing wince of embarrassment.

    If only people did feel embarrassment over such things, but on either side of the political divide such self doubt would prevent formulating and spreading the next incredibly stupid forced 'trending' topic, so I suspect that just as Schapps presumably did not think the poster was a bit silly, the people who made a huge fuss over it for nothing presumably thought and think that it was a really good idea, heaven help us.
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.

    ...

    You're clearly still a bit sore after you called that one wrong. Your mojo has definitely deserted you of late.
    it didn't shift a single poll. I called it entirely right. As compared to the lefties on here who ejaculated themselves senseless with excitement, OGH included.

    Already it seems like some bizarre mass delusion, simultaneously eerie and shameful, like the meowing nuns of medieval France.

    As for my mojo, it has transferred to the Telegraph, where it gets paid. You get the shavings from my workbench.
    The Tories fucked up a bit and some Twitter folk had a laugh at their expense. If you can't laugh at politicians, you are dead or maybe a Telegraph columnist. Is there a difference?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    This analysis misses a key point, UKIP polls much higher in Euro polls than any other, so they already are starting from a very high base. The Tories actually poll lower by contrast in Euro polls than general elections due to PR. For example, in 2009's Euro poll UKIP polled 16.5% while at the following year's general election they polled only 3%. The Tories got only 27.7% in 2009, but won a much higher 36% at the 2010 general election. So clearly large numbers of those presently polled as voting UKIP (many of whom will have voted Tory in 2010) probably already voted UKIP at the 2009 Euro elections. With the Green vote splitting the Labour vote more under a PR election than is showing up in the present FPTP polls, a Tory win in the Euros could occur without anything like a Tory landslide in 2015. A Euro win would probably set the stage for the Tories to win back some lost 'Kippers, but probably not enough for a majority. Instead the Tories would probably again be largest party in a hung parliament (if you add say 5% from UKIP to the 34% the Tories are presently polling to give 39%) and the present Tory-LD Coalition would continue
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014
    The Guardian seems curiously quiet about the OECD report showing that the number of UK families who do not have enough money to buy food is actually substantially lower now than it was under Labour during the boom pre-crisis years.

    I imagine they must be holding back in order to do a full multi-page spread on this news, since normally they are incredibly hot on statistics comparing how the disadvantaged are doing under the coalition compared with the previous government.

    http://www.oecd.org/unitedkingdom/OECD-SocietyAtaGlance2014-Highlights-UnitedKingdom.pdf
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    but it looks like Labour does better in the smaller/lower turnout constituencies.

    AKA "rotten boroughs?"

    Cough... They were abolished in 1832.

    No, it's a facet of the system. Smaller as in District Magnitude smaller (there may be minor malapportionment effects too) constituencies e.g. North East/Wales. D'Hondt will disproportionally reward Labour in these strong areas, while ensuring they still receive their proportional entitlement in their weak (large District Magnitude) areas. There seems to be a turnout correlation too...
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Based on that poll OGH published here a day or two ago, Hills' odds of 11/10 against a Labour EU win looks tremendous value to me, but DYOR.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DavidL said:


    "Even though the markets are now aware of the Miliband risk, I don't think they've quite yet cottoned on to the no-viable-government risk, which IMHO is an even greater worry."

    You make it sound like these are different things Richard. Are you sure?

    No, I'm not, but the market commentary I've seen has mainly focused on whether the Conservatives or Labour will 'win'. But if neither 'win', we may end up with an even more dangerous situation than an outright Miliband majority - a weak Labour-led government in thrall to all sorts of vested interests, desperate for populist measures, and even more incapable of taking tough decisions than Miliband would be on his own.

    I understand what you are saying but any Labour government led by Ed Miliband is going to be weak and desperate for populist measures. Any hope that it was going to be better has been greatly diminished over the last few days. He really does not have a clue or a belief or a policy. Just a completely unjustified sense of superiority and entitlement.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    SeanT said:

    torybingo was interesting for one thing - not its political import, which did not exist, nor its humour value ( = zero, after the initial three minutes), but as a mass delusion exactly like the meowing nuns. i.e. It was weird herd behaviour, later perceived as mortifying but apparently rational at the time.

    Nah, it was just displacement activity designed to cover up the embarrassment of Labour supporters that their party had absolutely nothing to say about a major political and economic event.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    SeanT said:

    torybingo was interesting for one thing - not its political import, which did not exist, nor its humour value ( = zero, after the initial three minutes), but as a mass delusion exactly like the meowing nuns. i.e. It was weird herd behaviour, later perceived as mortifying but apparently rational at the time.

    Social media are changing us, and therefore changing politics. This should interest pb-ers and punters alike. The whole world is becoming a medieval convent in Anjou, a cloistered village of frustrations where bizarre gossip spreads at superluminal speed, causing freakish mental plagues.

    Twitter lefties were just projecting their own hatred of the wwc.

    What's interesting to me is why different bits of social media are dominated by different political blocs.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    DavidL said:

    I understand what you are saying but any Labour government led by Ed Miliband is going to be weak and desperate for populist measures. Any hope that it was going to be better has been greatly diminished over the last few days. He really does not have a clue or a belief or a policy. Just a completely unjustified sense of superiority and entitlement.

    Yes, I'm not going to argue with that. He'd be worse than Brown, I don't think that is any longer in doubt. At least Brown didn't deliberately set out to damage business.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Verulamius said:

    So far this year I have had monthly leaflets from L and LD. In addition I have had a leaflet from UKIP and today one from the Greens.

    So far none from C.

    Where are you based?
    kle4 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    That looks a sound analysis. One indication is how much literature people have already had. In Broxtowe, we've had a UKIP leaflet and we've partially put out our own. That's it. In London, nobody's sent me anything yet. My guess is that all parties are keeping their powder dry for 2015, except UKIP, who have something to prove.

    You mean there are places the parties actually campaign for the Euros? I don't think I saw a single thing through the letterbox from any of them last time around. Odd, too, as unlike the GEs, there's a chance peoples' votes will make a difference in my tory heartland area.
    Problem is that parties are usually poorly-organised in hopeless areas, so they struggle to get weaving even when opportunity comes along. In Broxtowe, Labour and UKIP are busy leafleting anyway (not sure why UKIP is bothering so much with Broxtowe, except that Anna and I and the LibDems are all pro-Europe) so it's no sweat to put out a Euro leaflet at the same time. The Tories are just doing postal stuff, not having many foot-soldiers, and haven't so far sent anything about the Euros. The LibDems are just defending their council seats with councillor Focuses which don't mention the Euros.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    The witless fools who called this 100% wrong are self-evidently the last people anyone should ever listen to on the subject of just how out of touch Cammie and Osbrowne are.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCovGqMiZyA

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    Remember the PB Golden Rule.

    The PB tories are always wrong. The PB tories never learn.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    Speaking of out of touch twerps.

    Just Charlene ‏@Just_Charlene 7h

    Miliband practising for when he becomes Thatcher #indyref #ScotLab14 pic.twitter.com/jqfUqgdmEq

    YES Argyll ‏@YesArgyll 35m

    #indyref I'll govern like Tory leader Margaret Thatcher,' says Ed Miliband, Express Feb 2014. Today he says SNP will govern like Tories.

    Paul Middleton ‏@DrPaulMiddleton 1h

    "Tories and SNP mean race to the bottom" says Ed Miliband, without a hint of irony...or self-awareness. #bless #indyref

    More from little Ed on Independence please. Much more.

    :)
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DavidL said:

    I understand what you are saying but any Labour government led by Ed Miliband is going to be weak and desperate for populist measures. Any hope that it was going to be better has been greatly diminished over the last few days. He really does not have a clue or a belief or a policy. Just a completely unjustified sense of superiority and entitlement.

    Yes, I'm not going to argue with that. He'd be worse than Brown, I don't think that is any longer in doubt. At least Brown didn't deliberately set out to damage business.
    True even I can concede he didn't set out to damage business. Still did though..,,,,.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.

    It wasn't that long ago that lefties were talking about "torybingo". And talking about it. And talking about it. And going on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it. And how it was as bad as Liam Byrne's "We've run out of money" letter, which admitted that Labour had bankrupted the nation, and thought it was funny.

    In fact it was just 48 hours ago when the Left went into a weird sexual spasm about a TWEETED poster referring to a tax cut on bingo, and this spasm is forgotten already, Why? Because anyone who did some of the spasming now recalls their involvement with a piercing wince of embarrassment.

    If .
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.

    ...

    You're clearly still a bit sore after you called that one wrong. Your mojo has definitely deserted you of late.
    it didn't shift a single poll. I called it entirely right. As compared to the lefties on here who ejaculated themselves senseless with excitement, OGH included.

    Already it seems like some bizarre mass delusion, simultaneously eerie and shameful, like the meowing nuns of medieval France.

    As for my mojo, it has transferred to the Telegraph, where it gets paid. You get the shavings from my workbench.
    The Tories fucked up a bit and some Twitter folk had a laugh at their expense. If you can't laugh at politicians, you are dead or maybe a Telegraph columnist. Is there a difference?
    torybingo was interesting for one thing - not its political import, which did not exist, nor its humour value ( = zero, after the initial three minutes), but as a mass delusion exactly like the meowing nuns. i.e. It was weird herd behaviour, later perceived as mortifying but apparently rational at the time.

    Social media are changing us, and therefore changing politics. This should interest pb-ers and punters alike. The whole world is becoming a medieval convent in Anjou, a cloistered village of frustrations where bizarre gossip spreads at superluminal speed, causing freakish mental plagues.
    Why Anjou? Did you just pluck it out of the air? Or are you drinking rose?

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    "What we can say is that if Cameron did pull off a win as PM – something Blair never managed – it would both place tremendous pressure on Miliband and burst UKIP’s bubble."

    Surely PB's most gullible cretins have told us that UKIP's bubble has burst already?
    I expect a u-turn on that soon enough like on every other subject they are 100% wrong on.


    *chortle*
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    SeanT said:

    welshowl said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.

    It wasn't that long ago that lefties were talking about "torybingo". And talking about it. And talking about it. And going on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it. And how it was as bad as Liam Byrne's "We've run out of money" letter, which admitted that Labour had bankrupted the nation, and thought it was funny.

    In fact it was just 48 hours ago when the Left went into a weird sexual spasm about a TWEETED poster referring to a tax cut on bingo, and this spasm is forgotten already, Why? Because anyone who did some of the spasming now recalls their involvement with a piercing wince of embarrassment.

    If .
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.

    ...

    You're clearly still a bit sore after you called that one wrong. Your mojo has definitely deserted you of late.
    it didn't shift a single poll. I called it entirely right. As compared to the lefties on here who ejaculated themselves senseless with excitement, OGH included.

    Already it seems like some bizarre mass delusion, simultaneously eerie and shameful, like the meowing nuns of medieval France.

    As for my mojo, it has transferred to the Telegraph, where it gets paid. You get the shavings from my workbench.
    The Tories fucked up a bit and some Twitter folk had a laugh at their expense. If you can't laugh at politicians, you are dead or maybe a Telegraph columnist. Is there a difference?
    torybingo plagues.
    Why Anjou? Did you just pluck it out of the air? Or are you drinking rose?

    Because the meowing nuns of medieval France possibly lived in Anjou.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Little-Green-Meowing-Head-hunting-Panics/dp/0786409975
    Granted: it's a hell of a book title!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    "The way opinion is moving in Scotland the value IndyRef bet is now on YES"

    There has been a clear tightening in the polls and if this continues I can see the YES price moving in with NO moving out. The prices, seen in the chart, are quite generous and my guess is that they will move.

    Again it will come as no surprise that the obsequious posh twerps who were hysterical over Osbrowne's scottish 'intervention' have been made to look like complete idiots yet again.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Labour have a policy!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26693266
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Another one the out of touch twerps called wrong.

    Michael Gove News ‏@MichaelGoveNews 9h

    Michael Gove attacks David Cameron's 'preposterous' inner circle of old Etonians - The Independent http://q.gs/66Yod

    Damn you lefty class warrior Gove!

    LOL

  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26693266
    labour now supporting pension reform probably since the yougov poll of 66% popularity.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Speaking of the chumocracy and it's amusing leadership posturing and positioning, Boris pops up yet again.

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 28m

    EXCL: Boris will run as an MP in 2015 now - but suspicions grow he has done a deal with the PM for No10 http://bit.ly/OIBuSn
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    "Overall trust in national government appears to have increased between 2007 and 2012 in the United Kingdom, while it fell in many other OECD countries."
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited March 2014
    nigel4england said:

    Labour have a policy!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26693266

    Nah... " want to see the detail ", " how if works in practice" , door wide open to alter whatever they want. Can't have adults who have saved prudently taking charge of their own money can we? Where would it end?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    David L If 'neither' win but the Tories are the largest party, the present Coalition will probably continue, which would probably be the best result of all, and certainly more stable than a tiny Tory majority. As the Tories have not yet finished the job of sorting out the deficit and the economy they do not deserve to win outright, however the Coalition as a whole has done enough to get the economy moving again and move the finances in the direction of a surplus for it to be re-elected
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    edited March 2014
    Mick_Pork said:

    Another one the out of touch twerps called wrong.

    Michael Gove News ‏@MichaelGoveNews 9h

    Michael Gove attacks David Cameron's 'preposterous' inner circle of old Etonians - The Independent http://q.gs/66Yod

    Damn you lefty class warrior Gove!

    LOL

    Moderated


  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    nigel4england said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Another one the out of touch twerps called wrong.

    Michael Gove News ‏@MichaelGoveNews 9h

    Michael Gove attacks David Cameron's 'preposterous' inner circle of old Etonians - The Independent http://q.gs/66Yod

    Damn you lefty class warrior Gove!

    LOL



    Moderated
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Edward Mayes ‏@eljmayes 4m

    Boris Johnson for Louth and Horncastle in 2015 looks rather likely
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mick_Pork said:

    Edward Mayes ‏@eljmayes 4m

    Boris Johnson for Louth and Horncastle in 2015 looks rather likely

    The crowd on UKPR don't seem to think it's a seat likely to appeal to Boris.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Looks like litte Ed at remembers what happened before last May's elections.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    SuperbikeAl ‏@SuperbikeAl 3h

    "@2tweetaboutit: Labour hires dedicated Ukip monitor as Farage... http://dailym.ai/1nK80DM " Be better off hiring a dedicated Milliband watcher

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    Turkey has apparently had its busiest day ever on Twitter — after the prime minister decided to ban it because it revealed his allegedly corrupt family arrangements.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Edward Mayes ‏@eljmayes 4m

    Boris Johnson for Louth and Horncastle in 2015 looks rather likely

    The crowd on UKPR don't seem to think it's a seat likely to appeal to Boris.
    I'm not convinced yet either but the fact is time is running out and he's not going to have the luxury to pick and choose all that much.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2014
    Oops, I suspect Sky News and the blondie talking-head may face contempt proceeding over the Female Genital Mutilation case...
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    nigel4england said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    nigel4england said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Another one the out of touch twerps called wrong.

    Michael Gove News ‏@MichaelGoveNews 9h

    Michael Gove attacks David Cameron's 'preposterous' inner circle of old Etonians - The Independent http://q.gs/66Yod

    Damn you lefty class warrior Gove!

    LOL

    Mick, you are one angry, boring bastard.


    Nigel, you are one petulant, whining twerp.
    Blimey, I am seriously wounded!
    Cor Blimey, luv a duck etc.! Don't dish it out if you can't take it back. Boring would be the tory dominance of PB with the usual suspects getting so much wrong and not ever being called out for it.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Test
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Mick_Pork said:

    nigel4england said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    nigel4england said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Another one the out of touch twerps called wrong.

    Michael Gove News ‏@MichaelGoveNews 9h

    Michael Gove attacks David Cameron's 'preposterous' inner circle of old Etonians - The Independent http://q.gs/66Yod

    Damn you lefty class warrior Gove!

    LOL

    Mick, you are one angry, boring bastard.


    Nigel, you are one petulant, whining twerp.
    Blimey, I am seriously wounded!
    Cor Blimey, luv a duck etc.! Don't dish it out if you can't take it back. Boring would be the tory dominance of PB with the usual suspects getting so much wrong and not ever being called out for it.

    If you can't take it don't dish it out is one of life's golden rules, more than happy to take my share of stick.

    Also agree that calling people out is the right thing to do, but sometimes it is one long rant and it gets over the top. Doesn't do you any favours either as it loses all effect.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    UK NewsWaver ‏@UK_NewsWaver 1m

    Ed Miliband warns that independence of Scotland will be a ‘race to the bottom’: SCOTTISH independence and a... http://bit.ly/1evSWTQ

    NConway ‏@NConway2 5m

    Labour to vote for Osborne's welfare cap next week - http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/labour-vote-osbornes-welfare-cap-next-week … @TheHeraldPaper @Leasky @TheScotsman @The_SSP_ @YesScotland

    Unspoofable.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    nigel4england said:

    Doesn't do you any favours either as it loses all effect.

    You can't seriously think that's the first time any of the PB tories and their hangers on have tried that particular spin on me can you? Didn't work the first 20 times, won't work now.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Andrew Sinclair ‏@andrewpolitics 1h

    Lots of talk about whether Boris might stand in Louth or South cambs...why is no one suggesting South Suffolk?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited March 2014
    Mick_Pork said:

    nigel4england said:

    Doesn't do you any favours either as it loses all effect.

    You can't seriously think that's the first time any of the PB tories and their hangers on have tried that particular spin on me can you? Didn't work the first 20 times, won't work now.
    It is, however, completely true no matter which side of the political spectrum it comes from. To intentionally use him as an example over and over, Dan Hodges tells us Ed M is crap all the time, so when he wants us to know he really really means it this time, he cannot, because we already know that was what he was going to say. Similarly, I think the Yes side is going to win the referendum later this year, and I think Labour will win in 2015. But if I am told by supporters of either of those positions that any action or word from their opponents is disastrous and laughable, I will find it impossible to take it seriously after awhile, because it is clearly done without any thought at all, it is automatic. That means I will miss the occasions where supporters of those positions point out something highly relevant, because I'll assume it's more partisan bullcrap that was going to be trotted out regardless of what was said or done.

    Thankfully my opinion on such matters is of course irrelevant to people supportive of such positions, but you will surely accept it as not being 'spin' to agree that making the same joke over and over a million times, no matter how funny or bitingly satirical it may have initially been, makes it lose its effectiveness, even if the point is still true.

    Good night all.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    William K Wallace ‏@London_is_Cool Mar 14

    Could Farage's 'weakness for women' be his Achilles' heel in May? http://dailym.ai/1hheVMY - hasn't done Boris Johnson any harm. FACT!

    Not quite any harm but a valid point nonetheless.

    More interesting though would be the effect if Boris did get back in on the kippers and tory backbenches since Farage has been making Boris friendly noises before now.

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS May 13

    Nigel Farage #ukip says if Boris Johnson or Michael Gove led the Tory party "we wd certainly b prepared to have a conversation" about a deal

    No doubt that was done primarily to cause mischief among a tory party sill inclined to run around like headless chickens over Europe. If Cammie did lose though then Farage's words would certainly be remembered by tory backbenchers in any leadership contest. You also have to wonder just how 'strenuously' Farage and the kippers would campaign against Boris in 2015 if he does go for a seat.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    SeanT said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SeanT said:

    torybingo was interesting for one thing - not its political import, which did not exist, nor its humour value ( = zero, after the initial three minutes), but as a mass delusion exactly like the meowing nuns. i.e. It was weird herd behaviour, later perceived as mortifying but apparently rational at the time.

    Nah, it was just displacement activity designed to cover up the embarrassment of Labour supporters that their party had absolutely nothing to say about a major political and economic event.
    No, it was trending on Twitter for two entire days. That's not just displacement activity by SPADs. That's a lot of people joining the herd. And much as you may disregard Twitter, it can be an important arena (cf the Turkish PM's problems today).

    What is not properly examined is the real influence Twitter has on a mature democracy like the UK, and how it works with and against the psychology of crowds.

    Despite the fact it trended so well, torybingo did NOT turn into pastygate as the Labour spinners clearly hoped. I'd say it's because it just didn't have emotional traction: they were lampooning a tax CUT (as I told them at the time) which isn't psychologically effective. Nonetheless they did get it trending, which was an achievement.

    It's a whole new way of doing politics, and very intriguing.



    It was a trivial and funny story that countered a decent budget from Ozzy. That is all. It's as you were in the polls with 412 days left.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Mick_Pork said:

    nigel4england said:

    Doesn't do you any favours either as it loses all effect.

    You can't seriously think that's the first time any of the PB tories and their hangers on have tried that particular spin on me can you? Didn't work the first 20 times, won't work now.
    FFS Mick calm down.

    For one I'm not a bloody Tory, all you are doing is becoming a parody, which is a shame.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    kle4 said:

    To intentionally use him as an example over and over, Dan Hodges tells us Ed M is crap all the time

    Just like PB's obsequious Cameroons do. The obvious reason they don't get called out on it all the time is the partisan nature of PB with it's right wing dominance. That and hypocrisy of course.
    kle4 said:

    but you will surely accept it as not being 'spin' to agree that making the same joke over and over a million times, no matter how funny or bitingly satirical it may have initially been, makes it lose its effectiveness, even if the point is still true.

    It's absolutely 100% spin to try to caricature a posters remarks in that amusingly crude manner again and again and again.

    The fact that Gove attacking the chumocracy upsets certain people to such a frankly incredible degree is far more indicative of where they stand and their inability to take even the mildest of criticism or jokes.

    Everyone knows this is nowhere near the first time Cammie, the chumocracy and the tory party have been criticised for this. It's not EVEN anywhere near the first time they have been attacked for being out of touch by their own MPs and cabinet colleagues. Yet still it produces this incredible touchiness and sensitivity from tories and their hangers on. Because it clearly hits the nail on the head. Every single time.

  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 665
    Nigel, Mick, knock it off.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    David Cameron News ‏@DCameronNews 2h

    James Corden's Sun Interview With David Cameron Reveals PM's Footballing ... - Huffington Post UK http://q.gs/67LGu

    Jane Merrick ‏@janemerrick23 14h

    Best exchange in Cameron/Corden iview is DC saying SamCam "does yoga and things like that" JC: "Oh, she's one of them" DC: "Yes" #namaste


    Remind me why Cammie is too scared to debate Farage?

    *chortle*
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited March 2014
    BobaFett said:

    SeanT said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SeanT said:

    torybingo was interesting for one thing - not its political import, which did not exist, nor its humour value ( = zero, after the initial three minutes), but as a mass delusion exactly like the meowing nuns. i.e. It was weird herd behaviour, later perceived as mortifying but apparently rational at the time.

    Nah, it was just displacement activity designed to cover up the embarrassment of Labour supporters that their party had absolutely nothing to say about a major political and economic event.
    No, it was trending on Twitter for two entire days. That's not just displacement activity by SPADs. That's a lot of people joining the herd. And much as you may disregard Twitter, it can be an important arena (cf the Turkish PM's problems today).

    What is not properly examined is the real influence Twitter has on a mature democracy like the UK, and how it works with and against the psychology of crowds.

    Despite the fact it trended so well, torybingo did NOT turn into pastygate as the Labour spinners clearly hoped. I'd say it's because it just didn't have emotional traction: they were lampooning a tax CUT (as I told them at the time) which isn't psychologically effective. Nonetheless they did get it trending, which was an achievement.

    It's a whole new way of doing politics, and very intriguing.

    It was a trivial and funny story that countered a decent budget from Ozzy. That is all. It's as you were in the polls with 412 days left.
    SeanT is right regarding Twitter. It is now a tremendously effective way of transfering news and views. I follow 105 people and 50 people follow me. By this means I get the news faster from OGH on Twitter than PB gets it. UKIP is being astonishingly versatile in this new method of political propaganda, which gives increasing hope for the future.



  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    Jonathan said:

    It wasn't that long ago that Tories were talking about Cameron's EU triumph. Surely he should be a dead cert for May after that speech.

    Let's not forget the hilarity on PB after Cammie's EU flounce too. That certainly killed the kippers stone dead.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    This is not just any policy, its a Conservative policy. :)
    nigel4england said:

    Labour have a policy!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26693266

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited March 2014
    James Corden on Sky News talking about his day editing the Sun and the David Cameron interview for Sport Relief.
    Youtube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf6qYtl-FoY
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    On topic, a Con win requires:
    1) Lab voters can't be arsed with these non-Prime-Minister-choosing elections, whereas Con-sympathetic demographics are civically-engaged / bored enough to turn out.
    2) UKIP have a hard time getting traction. (Otherwise the older Tory-sympathetic demographic go to them instead.)

    (2) is the unlikely part, although there is some sign that the right-wing populist movements around the world are past their peak, so it's not unthinkable that they'll fizzle.

    A UKIP fizzle would obviously be encouraging for Con prospects in 2015, but most people are already expecting a squeeze. It's necessary but not remotely sufficient for Con Maj, let alone a landslide.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Random thought: if there were someone with superhuman powers of tele-cognition (or whatever you call it) who knew everything as soon as it happened, and tweeted it straight away (without needing to wait for news reports), how long would it be before The Powers That Be noticed? e.g. if someone famous dies, or the exact co-ordinates of the plane crash site location, etc
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mick_Pork said:

    kle4 said:

    To intentionally use him as an example over and over, Dan Hodges tells us Ed M is crap all the time

    Just like PB's obsequious Cameroons do. The obvious reason they don't get called out on it all the time is the partisan nature of PB with it's right wing dominance. That and hypocrisy of course.
    kle4 said:

    but you will surely accept it as not being 'spin' to agree that making the same joke over and over a million times, no matter how funny or bitingly satirical it may have initially been, makes it lose its effectiveness, even if the point is still true.

    Of course we see much more robust criticism of Salmond from the Nats on here than we ever do of Cameron from the Tories. Not.....in the obsequious stakes the Nats are in a league òf their own.....but then being a transient faith, it's to be expected.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    At last they're finally doing something

    Scottish Labour move left in bid to outflank the SNP

    SCOTTISH Labour leader Johann Lamont will today describe Alex Salmond's economic policies as "Osborne Max" in a hard-hitting attack designed to position Labour firmly to the left of the SNP.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/scottish-labour-move-left-in-bid-to-outflank-the-snp.23759147
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2014
    No website is safe from Ukip’s equivalent of the SNP’s cybernats. Tirades against “LibLabCon”, gays, Muslims etc, of varying degrees of unpleasantness, are almost invariably signed off with “vote UKIP.

    We are hearing a lot at the moment about how ex-Labour voters are emerging as a bloc within the party. But I see another division: between a sensible outfit that wants a classical liberal Britain outside the EU, which I think of as lower-case Ukip; and permanently angry conspiracy theorists whom I think of as UKIP, or maybe UKIP!!!!, whose American equivalents have made the Republicans unelectable.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100264690/ukip-or-ukip-nigel-farage-must-decide-what-sort-of-party-he-wants-to-lead/

    I think we see both on here.....Sean Fear of Ukip, for example, then quite a few UKIP supporters......
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    edited March 2014
    CarlottaVance said:

    At last they're finally doing something

    Scottish Labour move left in bid to outflank the SNP

    SCOTTISH Labour leader Johann Lamont will today describe Alex Salmond's economic policies as "Osborne Max" in a hard-hitting attack designed to position Labour firmly to the left of the SNP.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/scottish-labour-move-left-in-bid-to-outflank-the-snp.23759147

    LOL, she has enough problems remembering her name. labour will do nothing , they know regardless of what happens that they are stuffed in 2016. Waiting on London orders and Milliband ones at that is not doing "something". Dire conference yesterday, poorly attended and only mince on offer. They are circling the drain.

    This is really going left. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/labour-vote-osbornes-welfare-cap-next-week
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    At last they're finally doing something

    Scottish Labour move left in bid to outflank the SNP

    SCOTTISH Labour leader Johann Lamont will today describe Alex Salmond's economic policies as "Osborne Max" in a hard-hitting attack designed to position Labour firmly to the left of the SNP.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/scottish-labour-move-left-in-bid-to-outflank-the-snp.23759147

    LOL, she has enough problems remembering her name. labour will do nothing , they know regardless of what happens that they are stuffed in 2016. Waiting on London orders and Milliband ones at that is not doing "something". Dire conference yesterday, poorly attended and only mince on offer. They are circling the drain.
    Thank you for your analysis Malcolm, objective as ever......The Herald has perhaps a slightly more nuanced view.....

    Miliband holds key role in referendum
    Ed Miliband's argument that independence for Scotland would cause a "race to the bottom" is a curiously narrow one.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/herald-view/miliband-holds-key-role-in-referendum.23758714
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MrJones said:

    SeanT said:

    torybingo was interesting for one thing - not its political import, which did not exist, nor its humour value ( = zero, after the initial three minutes), but as a mass delusion exactly like the meowing nuns. i.e. It was weird herd behaviour, later perceived as mortifying but apparently rational at the time.

    Social media are changing us, and therefore changing politics. This should interest pb-ers and punters alike. The whole world is becoming a medieval convent in Anjou, a cloistered village of frustrations where bizarre gossip spreads at superluminal speed, causing freakish mental plagues.

    Twitter lefties were just projecting their own hatred of the wwc.

    What's interesting to me is why different bits of social media are dominated by different political blocs.
    Think it's very simple: it's easier to gain traction if you have something interesting and/or controversial to say. This - almost by definition - will favour those who are attacking the government rather than its defenders.

    Consequentially, which political tendency dominates which part of social media is a function of who was in opposition when they rose to prominence: twitter is in the last couple of years; blogs during the long dark years of winter.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    CarlottaVance said:

    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    At last they're finally doing something

    Scottish Labour move left in bid to outflank the SNP

    SCOTTISH Labour leader Johann Lamont will today describe Alex Salmond's economic policies as "Osborne Max" in a hard-hitting attack designed to position Labour firmly to the left of the SNP.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/scottish-labour-move-left-in-bid-to-outflank-the-snp.23759147

    LOL, she has enough problems remembering her name. labour will do nothing , they know regardless of what happens that they are stuffed in 2016. Waiting on London orders and Milliband ones at that is not doing "something". Dire conference yesterday, poorly attended and only mince on offer. They are circling the drain.
    Thank you for your analysis Malcolm, objective as ever......The Herald has perhaps a slightly more nuanced view.....

    Miliband holds key role in referendum
    Ed Miliband's argument that independence for Scotland would cause a "race to the bottom" is a curiously narrow one.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/herald-view/miliband-holds-key-role-in-referendum.23758714
    Milliband is seen as a joke in Scotland
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Surely SLAB OUGHT to be to the left of the SNP. The latter’s main aim is an independent Scotland, and that’s an aim which can be shared by free-marketeers, social democrats and libertarians. If a socialist party isn’t to the left of such a grouping, what’s it for at all?

    Unless of course SLAB isn’t really a socialist party!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:



    Milliband is seen as a joke in Scotland

    However, even more important is Mr Miliband's own credibility. Despite making some astute political calls about issues such as phone hacking, the BBC, globalisation and the economy, the Labour leader struggles to persuade voters he is a realistic Prime Minister in waiting. His personal ratings in Scotland remain higher than in England. But that is not the issue.....

    But if he continues to struggle to convince, the suggestion Labour voters should consider a Yes vote may well have more traction.

    For this reason Mr Miliband's approach in the coming months is likely to take on very considerable significance.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/herald-view/miliband-holds-key-role-in-referendum.23758714

    Much as I wrote yesterday........
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JohnLoony said:

    Random thought: if there were someone with superhuman powers of tele-cognition (or whatever you call it) who knew everything as soon as it happened, and tweeted it straight away (without needing to wait for news reports), how long would it be before The Powers That Be noticed? e.g. if someone famous dies, or the exact co-ordinates of the plane crash site location, etc

    3 days
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    OldKingCole said:

    Surely SLAB OUGHT to be to the left of the SNP. The latter’s main aim is an independent Scotland, and that’s an aim which can be shared by free-marketeers, social democrats and libertarians. If a socialist party isn’t to the left of such a grouping, what’s it for at all?

    Unless of course SLAB isn’t really a socialist party!

    Labour are well to the right of the SNP, as well as being a bunch of lying troughers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    CarlottaVance said:

    No website is safe from Ukip’s equivalent of the SNP’s cybernats. Tirades against “LibLabCon”, gays, Muslims etc, of varying degrees of unpleasantness, are almost invariably signed off with “vote UKIP.

    We are hearing a lot at the moment about how ex-Labour voters are emerging as a bloc within the party. But I see another division: between a sensible outfit that wants a classical liberal Britain outside the EU, which I think of as lower-case Ukip; and permanently angry conspiracy theorists whom I think of as UKIP, or maybe UKIP!!!!, whose American equivalents have made the Republicans unelectable.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100264690/ukip-or-ukip-nigel-farage-must-decide-what-sort-of-party-he-wants-to-lead/

    I think we see both on here.....Sean Fear of Ukip, for example, then quite a few UKIP supporters......

    Thanks. Though I think most UKIP supporters who post here are pretty measured and thoughtful (eg Richard Tyndall, Socrates, Isam, Mike K, Morris Dancer etc.)

    My eyes glaze over when I read the Telegraph comments. It's hard to know how many posters there who claim to support UKIP are actually involved in the party. Blogs attract people who rant and rave.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    CarlottaVance said:

    malcolmg said:



    Milliband is seen as a joke in Scotland

    However, even more important is Mr Miliband's own credibility. Despite making some astute political calls about issues such as phone hacking, the BBC, globalisation and the economy, the Labour leader struggles to persuade voters he is a realistic Prime Minister in waiting. His personal ratings in Scotland remain higher than in England. But that is not the issue.....

    But if he continues to struggle to convince, the suggestion Labour voters should consider a Yes vote may well have more traction.

    For this reason Mr Miliband's approach in the coming months is likely to take on very considerable significance.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/herald-view/miliband-holds-key-role-in-referendum.23758714

    Much as I wrote yesterday........
    Yes just last week he came 4th in poll of labour voters of who they trusted , beaten by Salmond, Sturgeon and Cameron. Most people did not know the regional leader.
    They just love him up here.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    OldKingCole said:

    Surely SLAB OUGHT to be to the left of the SNP. The latter’s main aim is an independent Scotland, and that’s an aim which can be shared by free-marketeers, social democrats and libertarians. If a socialist party isn’t to the left of such a grouping, what’s it for at all?

    Unless of course SLAB isn’t really a socialist party!

    There's nothing very progressive about nationalism. It is about creating boundaries and borders, not taking them away.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Good morning all and very good thread David. Logic tells me that the Euros will see huge variations in the regional vote and with possibly an ultra low poll, who knows what will happen where? I would expect Labour, Tory and UKIP all to poll in the 20-25% range in the Euros and in some regions that could be the difference between 1 and 2 or 2 and 3 seats in the final allocation. In Scotland I wouldn't be surprised if its SNP3, SLAB 2, CON 1 with no LibDem.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Off topic (but then - isn't everything here these days?)

    If a welfare cap is a good idea, why is it also a good idea to exclude pensions? So far as I can see, it's because we effectively have open borders for people of working age but pensioners are pretty immobile. If I were governing a state east of Berlin or Venice, I'd be looking to do something about that.

    I'm increasingly of the view that all parties are more or less racist. If you lot want a betting tip it is for race riots in our inner cities on a large scale this summer (assuming it's not a cool, wet one - when did we last have one of those?). Apart from anything else, I suspect such riots would quietly suit the Coalition's electoral planning...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Charles said:

    MrJones said:

    SeanT said:

    torybingo was interesting for one thing - not its political import, which did not exist, nor its humour value ( = zero, after the initial three minutes), but as a mass delusion exactly like the meowing nuns. i.e. It was weird herd behaviour, later perceived as mortifying but apparently rational at the time.

    Social media are changing us, and therefore changing politics. This should interest pb-ers and punters alike. The whole world is becoming a medieval convent in Anjou, a cloistered village of frustrations where bizarre gossip spreads at superluminal speed, causing freakish mental plagues.

    Twitter lefties were just projecting their own hatred of the wwc.

    What's interesting to me is why different bits of social media are dominated by different political blocs.
    Think it's very simple: it's easier to gain traction if you have something interesting and/or controversial to say. This - almost by definition - will favour those who are attacking the government rather than its defenders.

    Consequentially, which political tendency dominates which part of social media is a function of who was in opposition when they rose to prominence: twitter is in the last couple of years; blogs during the long dark years of winter.
    Mebbe. I think twitter is good for soundbites and so suited to people who mostly think in slogans. Also people who like to be seen to have the right views.

    Facebook for people who aren't that into politics but will read a sentence or two if it's from someone they already know for non-political reasons.

    Newspaper comments for people who think up to five sentences is okay but any more than that is showing off.

    Forums...

    Blogs...etc

    I think you could possibly match social groups to some of the categories.

    Just messing really but some truth in it.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-21/petrodollar-alert-isolated-west-putin-prepares-announce-holy-grail-gas-deal-china

    I wonders what that means.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cons have no chance in the Euros and another coalition gov is their only hope in 2015.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    At last they're finally doing something

    Scottish Labour move left in bid to outflank the SNP

    SCOTTISH Labour leader Johann Lamont will today describe Alex Salmond's economic policies as "Osborne Max" in a hard-hitting attack designed to position Labour firmly to the left of the SNP.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/scottish-labour-move-left-in-bid-to-outflank-the-snp.23759147

    LOL, she has enough problems remembering her name. labour will do nothing , they know regardless of what happens that they are stuffed in 2016. Waiting on London orders and Milliband ones at that is not doing "something". Dire conference yesterday, poorly attended and only mince on offer. They are circling the drain.
    Thank you for your analysis Malcolm, objective as ever......The Herald has perhaps a slightly more nuanced view.....

    Miliband holds key role in referendum
    Ed Miliband's argument that independence for Scotland would cause a "race to the bottom" is a curiously narrow one.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/herald-view/miliband-holds-key-role-in-referendum.23758714
    Milliband is seen as a joke in Scotland
    And rUk too malc honey. You see we have plenty in common - please stay old thing.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    kle4 said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    nigel4england said:

    Doesn't do you any favours either as it loses all effect.

    You can't seriously think that's the first time any of the PB tories and their hangers on have tried that particular spin on me can you? Didn't work the first 20 times, won't work now.
    It is, however, completely true no matter which side of the political spectrum it comes from. To intentionally use him as an example over and over, Dan Hodges tells us Ed M is crap all the time, so when he wants us to know he really really means it this time, he cannot, because we already know that was what he was going to say. Similarly, I think the Yes side is going to win the referendum later this year, and I think Labour will win in 2015. But if I am told by supporters of either of those positions that any action or word from their opponents is disastrous and laughable, I will find it impossible to take it seriously after awhile, because it is clearly done without any thought at all, it is automatic. That means I will miss the occasions where supporters of those positions point out something highly relevant, because I'll assume it's more partisan bullcrap that was going to be trotted out regardless of what was said or done.

    Thankfully my opinion on such matters is of course irrelevant to people supportive of such positions, but you will surely accept it as not being 'spin' to agree that making the same joke over and over a million times, no matter how funny or bitingly satirical it may have initially been, makes it lose its effectiveness, even if the point is still true.

    Good night all.

    Do you really think the Scot Nats will win the referendum? That's interesting.

    I know nothing of the independent Scotland debate and I couldn't give a monkey's who wins, although I would think it funny that Labour lose all those MPs voting as a herd on matters that don't affect them.

    But you seem in a minority of people who actually think Salmond will win it.

    I suspect the No campaign will win handsomely. Largely because I can't see all those Scots voting for such a massive change.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2014
    The old biddies and shriekers in SCON appear to have overlooked the obvious, as usual.

    The Panelbase survey shows that 45 per cent of people in Scotland believe that Labour has been damaged by being associated with the Conservatives in the 'No' campaign.

    According to the poll, that compared to just 24 per cent who do not believe that the party has been damaged.

    SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson MP said: "Their alliance with the Tories has backfired badly on the Labour Party.

    "By a majority of two-to-one, people in Scotland believe that Labour have been damaged by ganging up with the Tories in the anti-independence campaign - which is two-thirds of people excluding 'don't knows' ".

    Mr Robertson added: "A Yes vote in September is about achieving the powers to build a fair society and prosperous economy in Scotland - and having relationship of friendship and equality with the rest of the UK.

    "It is a positive vision, which is already attracting the support of over a quarter of Labour voters - and the gap between Yes and No is now down to just 5 points.

    "Labour, by contrast, have chosen to stand with the Tories instead of standing up for Scotland - and are paying a heavy price for that foolish decision."

    http://www.itv.com/news/border/2014-03-20/labour-leader-ed-miliband-to-claim-a-yes-vote-would-create-a-race-to-the-bottom/

    The 'progressive' (LOL) lib dems are now seen as little more than unprincipled yellow tories and they are now a political irrelevance in scotland with a taxi full of MSPs thanks to their 'love in' with the toxic tories.
This discussion has been closed.