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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osbo’s pensioner saving measures could stop some of the seepage to UKIP but the Tories need to do much more than that
As has been pointed out many times before the segment of the electorate that has seen the biggest switch to UKIP is the one that the Tories always banked on – the oldies. Last month’s Populus aggregate found that 18% of Tory voters from 2010 are now with the purples with those aged 55+ accounting, as the chart shows, for nearly 60% of their current support.
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The difference is the product of various oddities in voting practice and behavior - I wouldn't assume it will necessarily be exactly the same next time round. For example we could easily see more Labour votes piling up in safe seats now they are in opposition.
Con maj in to 4.3 from 4.7
Worried that the gaming/animation tax breaks were not mentioned when he talked about the film industry tax break. I fear that the EC has scotched them and the government aren't going to try and overturn the decision.
Good news on the ISAs as well. I will definitely be making use of that.
Not really bothered about the pension stuff other than finally getting rid of annuities which is surely welcome news for everyone. The whole industry is full of scammers and con artists.
The small line on transfer pricing could actually be the biggest clampdown on tax avoidance by multi-nationals in a generation. If they do it right the likes of Google, Apple, Amazon and Starbucks (all American, unsurprisingly) will have to change the way they do business in the UK. It could even mean a lot of them rebase their European HQs in the UK rather than Ireland or Luxembourg since there would no longer be a tax advantage to being overseas.
One can only imagine the atmosphere in the plush offices of Britain's pension providers....
So the inclusion of peer-to-peer lending within the ISA system could be very important. Has anything else been added? Can you put retail bonds in an ISA already?
It amazing what happens if you put somebody who actually knows about the subject in the proper role.
The prize fund interest rate would only have to increase from 1.30% to less than 1.33% to cover the extra £1 million prize, if there are no other changes, so not a major point.
LDs doing well in bye elections.
Peak Ukip after the Euros
Also more importantly Jack's ARSE agrees.
Obviously lefty LDs will hate it but..
That statement is one of the biggest pieces of 'if' nonsense I've ever read in all my days here.
"To put it into context the Tories will still be losing seats to Labour even if they have a vote lead of 6%. They need a huge swing going well above than just winning back switchers to UKIP."
.......................................................................
Based on what research Mike - out of date analysis and out of date UNS and out of date projected turnout ?
Both of us regularly and correctly regale some PBers that LibDem vote share and MP's do not directly correlate. I say the same is true of the coming general election for the Tories with increased and differential turnout negating an already diminishing Labour FPTP advantage.
And for the want of any misunderstanding let me advise PBers that :
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
Depending on your circumstances and what contributions you've already made, it might be a good idea to make a contribution to take advantage of tax relief on this year's income. You've got just two weeks to do this.
This is not financial advice, do your own research, etc etc.
One theme of the budget seems to be that of bypassing traditional financial institutions.
Would have thought that the banker-bashing leader of the Opposition would be happy with that.
The sofa bound benefit dependent waiting for her "bedroom tax" to be refunded by two Eds won't benefit at all from this budget.
Those who have got on their bikes and are newly in employment will be the real beneficiaries.
Perhaps the savings made by pensioners should be deployed to purchase bicycles for grandchildren of working age?
Standard Life down 6%
So great news for Tory-donating pension industry bods who will have a great time I'm sure. But not a good thing in the long term to reduce pension provision for people - the state have to top us as for some pathetic reason British people don't like to see their parents starving and freezing.
Fine and dandy in the fantasy world of mid term politics but in the real world it was never going to and never did happen.
An opposition sitting on a 3-4 point lead less than 14 months before a general election is in the doings .... good and proper.
I'm trying to work this out. Basically, if you put 10 grand in and you get relief at 40%, that then becomes 14 grand in your pension.
You would then incur a tax rate of, say 20% on the 14 grand (plus interest, dividends etc), if you took it out in 15 years and told the annuity boys to poke it.
Which means your 10 grand turns into 11,200 net of any appreciation....
As you say, not financial advice, but...
"To put this into perspective (and assuming my arithmetic is correct which is a big assumption) if Labour's vote returned to 2005 efficiency levels they could win
258 x 7185 = 1,853,730 votes without gaining a single seat."
I meant an additional 1.8m votes. To put this into perspective in 2010 Labour received 8.6m votes. Who thinks they will get more than 10.5m in 2015? Even if they did will they win more seats and if so how many?
Those who assume that Labour are going to achieve anything like the efficiency of 2010 in seats per vote are deluding themselves. If their vote increases (which I presume it will) it is simply wrong to assume that this vote is going to get even more efficient by increasing more in the marginals. They are already at the very extreme of the spectrum; to think that they can improve that efficiency yet further is a dangerous basis on which to place your bets.
Miliband, as he showed again today, is no Blair but he is no Brown either. As far as we can see he is sane for a start. So he will get more Labour supporters out. Many will be where it does not make a difference.
Con: 13,697,923 votes, 339 seats => 40,400 votes per seat
Lab: 11,532,218 votes, 269 seats => 42,870 votes per seat
1983:
Con: 13,012,316 votes, 397 seats => 32,800 votes per seat
Lab: 8,456,934 votes, 209 seats => 40,400 votes per seat
The vote ratios got better for the Tories once they were in power. This is hidden underneath a lower ratio overall, but the trend is clear.
Coalition government, etc, etc.
Here's a hint: See TGOHF's post of a couple of minutes ago.
PB Tories indifferent to the status quo starts here
I like Os, I think unlike most politicians he is a decent guy who can be trusted, in his early days he was awkward in the spotlight, he has got better but he has a bit to go before I would bet on him becoming leader. The pension changes sound a good idea but Balls will attempt to pull them apart in the coming days, how this budget is viewed will depend on that.
Nanny Labour knows best - the state will regulate your lifestyle for you..
Essentially what you are getting now, which you didn't have yesterday, is flexibility. That's worth a lot.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100264442/budget-2014-ed-milibands-wretched-incoherent-response-showed-that-he-is-not-ready-to-be-pm/
"Miliband’s Budget speech was one of the most wretched I’ve ever seen from a party leader. In fact, it wasn’t a speech at all. It was a series of Labour Party press releases randomly thrown together without anything even resembling a coherent textual – never mind intellectual – structure."
You claim a contradiction, and then post quotes from two different people.
(Edit: to be clear - @Easterross said "Polls are meaningless" and @JackW said "opposition sitting on a 3-4 ... ")
Thanks Richard. Presumably if you leave the pension invested then you would not incur tax penalties on any of it, even above the 25% tax free sum.
I wonder, could you invest it in, say, a buy to let property? Rents tend to rise after all, and you have the option of selling the property if necessary.
How much better off would a pensioner who invested in a 200,000 annuity 15 years ago be if they'd bought a property instead?
Doesn't bear thinking about.
Yes but private wealth managers must be turning somersaults. A whole vast new money pool has been opened up to them, potentially.
Pension company share price suggests they have been ripping us off or have a bit of fat to trim.
Another £1.5bn (£290m in 2014-15 and £1.23bn in 2015-15) is coming from the measures dealing with tax avoidance. According to the Treasury, 33,000 people, on an average income of £262,000, will be affected, and 10,000 companies. In essence, if they are using controversial tax avoidance schemes, they will have to pay their tax up front, instead of using legal action to delay the moment at which they have to pay. Currently many of these people delay paying the tax for years by fighting HMRC in the courts because there is no real incentive on them to settle
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/economics-blog/2014/mar/19/budget-2014-live
Let me make sure I've got this straight though, you can take out 30 grand as a lump sum tax free and you don't have to buy an annuity with the remainder, you could just keep it in the Stockmarket and live off Vodafone/Glaxxo Dividends ?
If I say another nice thing about the yellow peril I'll have to do penance and just have one glass of single malt after dinner .... Oh, the suffering I go through for PB.
Keep it in the Stock market ?
'Disagree completely. All the evidence is that LAB will do much better in the marginals than the country as a whole. Remember the Ashcroft polling, National 2010 LD to LAB 17%. LAB>CON marginals 2010 LD to LAB 35%'
What was the date of that polling?
Hypocrisy has a field day under Ed Miliband.
That is a very important point. In that sense the pension measures are not unlike big bang, which shattered the stranglehold of inefficient and elitist UK financial institutions on the City.
Whisper it, but Mrs Thatcher would approve.
The £30K figure relates to 'trivial commutation' - if your total pension pot is less than £30K, you'll be able to take 100% of it out as a tax-free lump sum (compared with the current limit of £18K).
[For completeness, it's worth pointing out that you already might have had the option of remaining invested rather than buying an annuity (i.e. 'income drawdown'), but the rules for this are complex and most people wouldn't qualify.]
Based on policies and competence and not party labels I think there are many blues and yellows who'd prefer the status quo post 2015 than a single colour alone.
I said in 2010 that the Coalition would need two terms through to 2020 to sort out the economy and I hope the Coalition goes the full ten years.
Sudden enforced absence due to computer issues.
Not sure when the F1 piece will be. Perhaps today, perhaps tomorrow. Bet failed, race entertained, title bets looking rather good, though.
Clarissa Dickson Wright on Tony Blair:
"There were several members of the future Labour Cabinet in my circle, including Tony Blair himself. We called him Miranda, not least because of his long hair and girlish looks. He was regarded as a poor, sad thing, and considered something of a fantasist."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-476204/Clarissa-Dickson-Wright-Confessions-One-Fat-Lady.html
"Look, Squirrel!"
As the inventor (I think) of the original "Look, Squirrel!" meme, if you let me know your contact details I'll get you one of these:
http://www.zazzle.co.uk/funny_squirrel_t_shirt-235802430147427488
'OGH - You must surely get fed up soon trying to point this fact out to them, they just are not listening. I gave up months ago.'
That's word for word from Tim's playbook.
Say 37.5 hours a week full time, and 50 weeks pay.
This makes a smidgen over £12,000. But many people on the NMW work part-time, and it would not be hard to get below £10,000, especially for youngsters where the NMW is less.
As I thought/remembered, they would.
Actually about £12,304.50 (based on full time as 37.5 hours a week). (That's at the current minimum wage, when it goes up to £6.50 it'd be at £12,675)
Obviously you can put savings into an ISA, but you don't then get the tax relief from your original contributions.
http://www.nrk.no/piipshow/a-squirrel-walks-into-a-bar_-1.11611903
All else in this budget is fluff in comparison.