Categories
The (lack of) incumbency bonus – politicalbetting.com
The (lack of) incumbency bonus – politicalbetting.com
Just to clarify: this isn’t just the first time since WW2 that all incumbent parties in developed countries lost vote share.It’s the first time since this data was first recorded in 1905. Essentially the first time in the history of democracy (universal suffrage began in 1894). pic.twitter.com/04hdpN8aq0
1
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c62l50z4xq9t
Assuming free and fair elections in 2028, don't expect an incumbency bonus for any GOP Congress members.
Fundamentally we've allowed my parents generation to make risk free yield of 4-7% and risk free capital gain of 5-10% by borrowing to invest in existing property. They don't want to give it up but any party that wants to get the next generation of voters on side will need to get these people out of the market and any that want to stay as landlords should be directed to building new property with generous allowances to get them on board.
That generates new rental housing and frees up existing property for first time buyers.
Well, ye ken the noo!
See also: tarrifs. And most of the other stuff he has said he will do.
The Trump genius was to persuade loads of people that he would do the thing they wanted, but the stuff they didn't want was just a blag. The Trump supergenius was to persuade different people about this for different things.
To be clear- not because voters are stupid, but because Trump is a supergenius at this sort of thing.
I am, despite everything, an optimist, so I think we will recover our mojo eventually, but we are certainly taking a lengthy detour, particularly in this country.
Cortes (2008): "I exploit the large variation across U.S. cities and through time in the relative size of the low‐skilled immigrant population to estimate the causal effect of immigration on prices of nontraded goods and services. Using an instrumental variables strategy, I find that, at current immigration levels, a 10 percent increase in the share of low‐skilled immigrants in the labor force decreases the price of immigrant‐intensive services, such as housekeeping and gardening, by 2 percent."
Colas & Saches (2024): "Low-skilled immigrants indirectly affect public finances through their effect on resident wages and labor supply. We operationalize this indirect fiscal effect in a model of immigration and the labor market. We derive closed-form expressions for this effect in terms of estimable statistics. An empirical quantification for the United States reveals an indirect fiscal benefit for one average low-skilled immigrant of roughly $750 annually. The indirect fiscal benefit may outweigh the negative direct fiscal effect that has previously been documented. This challenges the perception of low-skilled immigration as a fiscal burden."
Clemens & Lewis (2024): "U.S. firms face a binding quota on visas to employ foreign workers in low-skill occupations outside of agriculture. The government allocates this quota to firms in part through a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering this lottery in 2021 and 2022, using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to employ more immigrants in low-skill jobs significantly increase production (elasticity 0.20–0.22), investment (1.5–2.1), and the rate of profit (0.15). Because the foreign-native elasticity of substitution in production is very low in the policy-relevant occupations (0.8–2.2), the effect on native employment is zero or positive overall, and positive in rural areas. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor."
Guy Singh-Watson is the founder of the organic veg box company Riverford and a member of Patriotic Millionaires UK. He grows organic vegetables on 60 hectares (150 acres) in Devon and 120 hectares (300 acres) in the French Vendée. He sold Riverford in 2018 to its 1,000 employees, and the company is now 100% employee-owned
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/08/farmer-glad-tax-loopholes-investor-landowners-inheritance
That is very fortunate that he has sold his business to employees (super tax efficient way to dispose of your business) and now only has 150 acres in the UK, that is likely below where the IHT kicks in....
Much depends on what Trump actually does, as I must have repeated at least a dozen times now. But if he's really going to go ahead and try for 10m plus deportations, as his comments at least imply, then I predict now that the results won't be popular.
Except with a small subset of GOP voters.
Some deportations, and significantly reducing the number coming in, is a consensus policy. Deporting ten, maybe twenty million (Trump has at times said more than that, but possible hyperbole of course), is a completely different project.
Did a lot of mothing at Riverford last year.
Watch Ireland buck the trend.
..At the same press conference, Foreign Minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente says Mexico's migrant program is working and will stay in place.
He referred to data that showed the number of migrants caught by US authorities at the border had fallen 76% since last December...
Perhaps this is because they are unable to enjoy doing so in the way that Trump would.
I like Friedrich Merz.
President Zelenskyy and current German opposition leader - and highly likely next Chancellor - had a phone call this morning. He was asking the Ukrainian president:
Merz: "What do you need? Money or equipment?"
Zelenskyy: "We have enough money until 2026. We need weapons. We need long-range weapons with no restrictions."
Merz has repeatedly demanded to deliver the TAURUS missile. It is not only a good solutions which is specifically required by Ukraine, but also possible without increasing debts in Germany.
https://x.com/Tendar/status/1854653975691514082
This is complicated stuff. I'd guess that they lots more second homes than we do, and that the demand in their cities relative to their towns/rural areas is even worse than our imbalance?
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1854852156521652344
They usually just thought it meant that a trade partner got punished by higher prices. They didn't realize it meant *they themselves* would get punished by higher prices.
https://x.com/kylascan/status/1854885488542544289
*This isn't their fault but i don't really know how to fix it. i have made a ton of videos on social explaining tariffs but i think people hear what they want to sometimes. Put econ classes in the high schools.
https://x.com/kylascan/status/1854885490446811160
*If Trump goes ahead with what he promised, there's a pretty good chance that will fix it.
People used to say that the more roads you built, the more roads you needed to build. Might it be the same for houses, if you have policies that do not deter it? Your second homes example might be pertinent.
The results are also liable to be ugly, as is the economic dislocation of removing that many people.
That's accepting that in the abstract, such policies are popular - just people see the positives and ignore negatives and complications until they become impossible to ignore.
Oddly his popularity might survive/increase the most if he botches things and in effect gets half the policy. An historically large number of deportations giving him a credible story to tell on delivering and to the right of the Dems, without the horrors and problems that getting the full policy might inflict.
Similar to tariffs one supposes, though more difficult due to the human and more emotive nature of the issue.
The problem is that a substantial proportion of the British public would like to see successful asylum seekers, and some sections of legal migrants, also returned. That isn't going to happen.
There are thousands of new flats around my place in Edinburgh but I've made 20% on the value in the same period. 40% of Scottish new builds are in Edinburgh and it's TTWA, yet...
The US is the one western country still with substantial arms stocks which they can fairly easily still dip into (for some things at least) without significantly depleting their own reserves.
Looking ahead, everyone needs to up their manufacturing capacity.
I do think there is an absolute shortage of housing supply in Britain, but distribution, and financing are also big factors. You need to make sure that the right people buy the new houses, and that they don't spend all their money doing so.
As well as the policies to dissuade landlords that Max mentions, I think you also want to reduce the income multiples that the banks lend on. As well as building lots of housing.
And there's good competition in the market so the market rates are close to the true rate (Gilts) sometimes below !
Not sure how europe does their mortgages
Today, the Korean government released Hyunmoo-IIB missile footage. 'IIB' variant has considerably heavier warhead than other SRBMs.
The range is 550km, and the warhead weighs about 1 ton.
Notably, it has evasive maneuvering ability, having an active seeker, and strong anti-jamming function.
Mysterious two canister version Hyunmoo-II TEL was not revealed at the parade.
https://x.com/mason_8718/status/1854839119148728684
The most interesting takeaway for me is just how expensive the US can be, particularly for people in lower incomes - see the overburden rate. This is where France and Germany do perform a lot better - but the UK is still distinctly average.
Muppets.
Zoning, and rules on lot sizes, can be insane. In a lot of places,, you're simply not allowed to build smaller houses. or high density developments.
It was one of the issues in the Presidential campaign, where Harris was promising reform, FWIW.
Gosh.
https://x.com/paul_slg/status/1854893878542844298
Angela Rayner has called in an application for 8,400 homes just *three hours* before it was due to go to planning committee with a recommendation for refusal.
Is that really true? Surely, if you disguise it as Inconvenience Payments or something?
However Republicans shouldn't get too excited as opposition parties who have won recent elections, from Labour in the UK and Labor in Australia to the SDP in Germany have all seen their popularity fall in polls again once in government due to rising cost of living. Meloni's rightwing coalition in Italy which came to power in 2022 is one of the few bucking the trend but then while she is pushing through tax cuts and immigration controls like Trump she is not pushing through tariffs like he wants to introduce either
- Australia is about to get a native space launch provider - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-04/gilmour-space-technologies-orbital-rocket-launch-permit-granted/104503690
- ESA is think about maybe moving forward with Themis (Falcon 9 first stage copy, basically). https://europeanspaceflight.com/esa-shares-rare-update-on-themis-reusable-booster-demonstrator/ . But don't worry - this won't be part of an operational rocket.
A grand slam by the Tories, taking all 4 off the SNP.
LD vote share up in all 4 seats, including some +15% action
SNP share down in 3 of the 4, only gaining any ground in Fraserburgh (seat vacated by Seamus Logan MP)
Reform a clear and growing threat to the Tories, despite their grand slam of wins. Only 38% off the Reform vote transferred over to the Tories once ReFUK were defeated
As a LibDem team we're pretty happy - picking up any of the seats would have been a bonus, and we can show continued progress.
What does it mean for wider Scottish politics?
- Reform won't get anywhere. Their candidate in Fraserburgh was a prominent local businessman and he still only came 3rd. Their only role is a spoiler for the Tories
- The SNP slide continues. Notable was that they had a serious lack of a team for these ones, having to pull in councillors & MSPs to cover their lack of bodies to canvas, and materials written centrally and not by the local teams. Unless Swinney can arrest the slide they are in deep trouble come 2026.
- The Tories are flying, benefitting from a clear "stop/punish the SNP" vote, and aided by having well organised and resourced campaigns. If their new leader can get past the inherited mess and put out a positive vision, they could be a serious threat again as they last were under Ruth Davidson. Won't help them in the central belt, but outside there are plenty of seats to pick up
- Liberal Democrats? The NE isn't our strongest area, despite being in coalition power in both the shire and Aberdeen city. But we continue to strengthen and organise and build little power bases, and we all know how pervasive we can be once we get under the foundations
- Hard to speak for Labour or the Greens. Neither really exist up here
If Labour carry on being awful, if the SNP slide doesn't abate, and if Con & LD shares continue to rise, we could be in for a truly divided Holyrood after the election...Otherwise you may as well start talking about the re election of the Australian Capital Territory government or the Tories in Epping Forest District Council in May
I also know quite a few of the SNP. The loathing is mutual! Unless the SNP were right on the cusp of a majority I cannot see how any party would work with them. We would talk to them as we work with everyone, but I doubt the terms would be acceptable.
And thank you to @RochdalePioneers for your analysis of the locals in NE Scotland where our Scottish family live
Otherwise it would have to be some form of SNP + Greens + LDs deal
I mean, would you really argue the low skilled immigration to Dubai and the UAE, or to Singapore, been a drain on their economies?
So I suspect it depends on the part of the country and on the industry. It is also worth remembering that the parts of the US that have seen the most stagnant economies, are the ones with the least low skilled immigration. (Albeit, I suspect that the causation is the other way around.)
We live in a very different political climate today
Singapore is an ultra low tax city state with the most educated population in the world
US special council winding down Trump's criminal cases
Of course, it all depends on who has made the application.
The Democrats should welcome the repeal of the Affordable Care Act and the introduction of tariffs. I mean they'll be shitty for the American people and all, but at least it would mean people would be able to see the impact of those moves.
And Singapore chooses to educate their citizens, and then import low skilled workers.
Personally, I think the Singapore model is smarter than not educating your citizens well. I mean, I don't dream of my kids working as cleaners.
As to your second paragraph, I'd offer the latest Roy Morgan poll in New Zealand which shows Luxon's National Party leading Labour by just two points (31-29) and a Labour-Green-Maori coalition gaining 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.
Italy does seem to be the exception but the gap between FdL and PSD is remarkably consistent at about seven points as is the gap between the centre right and centre left blocs which is about six points. The next Italian election however is due late 2027.
As not featured on the side of a GOP bus.
David Lammy strikes again.
Oh no, it was Boris Johnson.
https://www.dubaipetroleum.ae/
Oriental East Asians also have the highest average IQs in the world, it is partly inherited intelligence as much as a good education system that puts Singapore top
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr5mr7292plo