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State of the Union, Week 9 – politicalbetting.com

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  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    stodge said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The collapse of the Gulf Stream would spell the end for Britain as we know it.
    Probably not though it might not be pleasant for a while. Given the world is warming, it seems reasonable to assume the summers would still be warm and perhaps our climate would be more "continental" in nature - drier and colder in winter, drier and warmer in summer though of course it would still rain.

    We might end up like Labrador or the NE United States - I doubt it would be Greenland though doubtless the Mail would blame Starmer if the glaciers started advancing towards London.
    The UK is a lot further north than people realise, relative to other places with a similar climate. Without the gulf stream we would have to hope we end up like Norway / Sweden. Glasgow is 55° north which is further north than most of the major US and Canadian cities (with the exception of Anchorage).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    Eabhal said:

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    50% increase in fuel duty? ;)

    (I'm half serious. The marginal cost of driving keeps getting relatively cheaper).
    I'll predict he range 6.5% to 10% fuel duty increase in the budget. That's a low increase, but I think it's all we'll get.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Axing £2 bus fare looks already like another massive unforced error by Reeves.

    Her hero is Gordon Brown. She needs to give him a call.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    50% increase in fuel duty? ;)

    (I'm half serious. The marginal cost of driving keeps getting relatively cheaper).
    I'll predict he range 6.5% to 10% fuel duty increase in the budget. That's a low increase, but I think it's all we'll get.
    You'll love this: https://x.com/H_H_Gray/status/1850888523777257518

    Incredible intelligence-led sting by cyclist on bike thief. Typical reluctance from the police.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Has Leon been sharing couches with JD ?

    JD Vance laments the diversity of New York City ahead of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally:

    “London doesn’t feel fully English to me anymore. Right? New York of course is the classic American city. Over time, I think New York will start to feel less American.”

    https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1850580229665755330

    Vance's own wife is the daughter of Indian immigrants so his whole approach to this issue is bizarre.
    London of course has never really been an English city anyway. It predates the arrival of the English and has always been a diverse city as you'd expect from a major port and former administrative centre of a vast multi ethnic empire. It's why it attracts people from all over the world and lets them all feel at home.
    Reading this comment, you would think that London is no more diverse now than it was 50 years ago, but that's clearly not true. It has been transformed demographically.
    London was already a very diverse city in 1974 but yes clearly it is even more so now. I don't know if you live in London like I do but in my experience, living here since 2010 and earlier for periods since 1997, it doesn't feel "foreign" in the slightest. It just feels like London. Immigration has helped to make it the most dynamic and successful part of the country, with the strongest economy, the best performing schools and thriving local communities. I wouldn't live anywhere else, and if JD Vance doesn't like it all the better.
    What you are celebrating is essentially internal migration out of London: Brits out and migrants in. Maybe you benefit from this personally, but it's very much an "I'm all right, Jack" attitude.
    It is hard to understand why people would want London to be a depopulating wasteland, which is what the reality would be if the immigration and economic growth of the last 30 years did not happen. The reality is just that things change over time and with economic and cultural circumstances. A lot of the 'Brits' who have left have made a lot of money out of rising house prices and are actually beneficiaries of immigration.

    Having said that there is a good point that is made by people like Iain Sinclair: a lot of the people who have lived in London for many generations have left over the past few decades, which does change the psychological character of a place, but I suppose this is also true of a lot of places in England (ie rural villages etc).
    I don't think it's unusual in life for things to be in tension: we all weigh up decisions about jobs that might make us more money, for example, but at the cost of our family life. The same can apply for decisions at a national level.

    I don't think it makes people hypocrites or ignorant because they don't fully go one way or another in all things.

    Who does?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    TimS said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The theories tend to change as the outcomes change. Hard to sell people on consistent warming when everyone's freezing their tits off. So just blame cold, rain, and every other less than optimal weather condition on the same thing and wagons roll.
    More to the point ignore ideologues, regardless of whether they’re XR or contrarians, and listen to what scientific research and data show, and that is a pretty monotonic warming with the chances of some day after tomorrow cooling scenario pretty low. Rainfall and short term events are getting more volatile, not regional or global climate.

    As to your previous characteristically acid response to my ship pollution comment, yes requiring ships to spray another harmless reflective particle would be sensible. Certainly better than letting them emit sulphates again. It’s not primarily seamen getting the lung damage, it’s communities in coastal settlements.
    We're also seeing that there's more variability in the climate, or more things that vary that affect the climate, so that you have a lot of variability on top of the monotonic trend.

    That's why, for example, until recently there was a slight trend to increasing Antarctic sea ice. So, on average it's warming, but there's enough variability that it can be unusually cold.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    edited October 28

    stodge said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The collapse of the Gulf Stream would spell the end for Britain as we know it.
    Probably not though it might not be pleasant for a while. Given the world is warming, it seems reasonable to assume the summers would still be warm and perhaps our climate would be more "continental" in nature - drier and colder in winter, drier and warmer in summer though of course it would still rain.

    We might end up like Labrador or the NE United States - I doubt it would be Greenland though doubtless the Mail would blame Starmer if the glaciers started advancing towards London.
    "The Gulf Stream originates in the Gulf of Mexico and transports warm water across the Atlantic towards north-west Europe. As such, it has a strong warming effect on the region and is the reason why the UK does not experience similarly harsh conditions to places like Canada or Siberia, despite being on a similar latitude."
    https://www.yourweather.co.uk/news/trending/what-will-happen-to-the-uk-if-the-gulf-stream-collapses.html
    We would still be coastal, and still on the Western not Eastern edge of the continent facing maritime westerlies so coastal Alaska is potentially more relevant than inland Canada or Siberia - and it’s the North Atlantic drift rather than strictly speaking the Gulf Stream that would collapse: the Northward flow we get because dense salty water sinks in the far North Atlantic.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598
    stodge said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The collapse of the Gulf Stream would spell the end for Britain as we know it.
    Probably not though it might not be pleasant for a while. Given the world is warming, it seems reasonable to assume the summers would still be warm and perhaps our climate would be more "continental" in nature - drier and colder in winter, drier and warmer in summer though of course it would still rain.

    We might end up like Labrador or the NE United States - I doubt it would be Greenland though doubtless the Mail would blame Starmer if the glaciers started advancing towards London.
    UK is apparently now snow-free (since 18th October) for an unprecedented 3rd year in a row.

    The snow patch on Aonach Beag has melted out.

    So for the moment, that's not happening.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    On the hidden from payslip debate here on PB:



    Tom Harwood
    @tomhfh
    ·
    9h
    If an employer wants to hire someone on £60,000, this in reality costs the firm £68,351.10.

    Hidden from the payslip are employer NICs: £7,030.20 and minimum employer pension contribution: £1,320.90.

    It will be interesting to see how much employment costs rise after the budget.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1850834773075234942
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Nigelb said:

    Has Leon been sharing couches with JD ?

    JD Vance laments the diversity of New York City ahead of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally:

    “London doesn’t feel fully English to me anymore. Right? New York of course is the classic American city. Over time, I think New York will start to feel less American.”

    https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1850580229665755330

    Vance's own wife is the daughter of Indian immigrants so his whole approach to this issue is bizarre.
    London of course has never really been an English city anyway. It predates the arrival of the English and has always been a diverse city as you'd expect from a major port and former administrative centre of a vast multi ethnic empire. It's why it attracts people from all over the world and lets them all feel at home.
    Rarely read such utter nonsense. 87% white British in 1971, now 36.8%. In the preceding two thousands years it was almost always 90% plus white British. Take a look at any census.
    British? Two thousand years ago? The folk who spoke what we call Welsh. Not the Romans. Or the Saxons. Or the Danes. Or the Normans. Not many Welsh (the true British) left now in London.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    carnforth said:

    The Speaker is not happy with Rachel Reeves:

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1850928321279979664

    I'm not either. I had hoped that we (Labour) would revert to proper protocols and announce stuff to Parliament before briefing the press or making policy announcements in interviews or speeches. But no. It's not just the changes to the fiscal rules, it's the (deliberate?) leaking of budget 'secrets' and stuff like today's bus fare announcement.
    Disappointing.
    Because it's more important for them - and the previous government was largely the same- to manage the political positioning in the country and the news cycle than respect parliamentary niceties.

    For crucial things like this I can't see it changing, sadly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    If Trump does win it looks like he will win the popular vote and the GOP will win Congress too (even if the Democrats narrow the margin in the Senate).

    That would make it the biggest GOP win in a national US election since Bush was re elected in 2004. Harris is basically a female and black John Kerry so fits that narrative.

    It remains close though and Trump is just 1% ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania in new Insider Advantage polls.
    https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-michigan-survey-trump-leads-by-one-point-slotkin-and-rogers-tied-in-u-s-senate-race/

    On average 538 has Harris ahead by 0.4% in Michigan, by 0.1% in Wisconsin and Trump by 0.3% in Pennsylvania (which has an above average number of Puerto Ricans who might react badly to the comedian's insults yesterday to their ancestral homeland).

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/


    Trump leads by 1.8% in Arizona and 1.5% in Georgia and 1.3% in NC now which look solid for him albeit by a mere 0.2% in Nevada


    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    Axing £2 bus fare looks already like another massive unforced error by Reeves.

    Her hero is Gordon Brown. She needs to give him a call.

    I'm annoyed. I'm going to have to remember what fares there are now. £2 there and £2 back was always cheaper / same price. do I get a return now, what about other special tickets.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Has Leon been sharing couches with JD ?

    JD Vance laments the diversity of New York City ahead of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally:

    “London doesn’t feel fully English to me anymore. Right? New York of course is the classic American city. Over time, I think New York will start to feel less American.”

    https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1850580229665755330

    Vance's own wife is the daughter of Indian immigrants so his whole approach to this issue is bizarre.
    London of course has never really been an English city anyway. It predates the arrival of the English and has always been a diverse city as you'd expect from a major port and former administrative centre of a vast multi ethnic empire. It's why it attracts people from all over the world and lets them all feel at home.
    Reading this comment, you would think that London is no more diverse now than it was 50 years ago, but that's clearly not true. It has been transformed demographically.
    London was already a very diverse city in 1974 but yes clearly it is even more so now. I don't know if you live in London like I do but in my experience, living here since 2010 and earlier for periods since 1997, it doesn't feel "foreign" in the slightest. It just feels like London. Immigration has helped to make it the most dynamic and successful part of the country, with the strongest economy, the best performing schools and thriving local communities. I wouldn't live anywhere else, and if JD Vance doesn't like it all the better.
    London was around 90% white British in 1971.
    One thing that I find interesting is over compensation for this change. People describing bits of the U.K. that haven’t changed this way as hideously white, or similar.

    One amusing tell is *where* they notice this. Apparently Cardiff is very multicultural. But bits of the Home Counties that actually have higher non-white populations are Master Race Central.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Has Leon been sharing couches with JD ?

    JD Vance laments the diversity of New York City ahead of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally:

    “London doesn’t feel fully English to me anymore. Right? New York of course is the classic American city. Over time, I think New York will start to feel less American.”

    https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1850580229665755330

    Vance's own wife is the daughter of Indian immigrants so his whole approach to this issue is bizarre.
    London of course has never really been an English city anyway. It predates the arrival of the English and has always been a diverse city as you'd expect from a major port and former administrative centre of a vast multi ethnic empire. It's why it attracts people from all over the world and lets them all feel at home.
    Reading this comment, you would think that London is no more diverse now than it was 50 years ago, but that's clearly not true. It has been transformed demographically.
    London was already a very diverse city in 1974 but yes clearly it is even more so now. I don't know if you live in London like I do but in my experience, living here since 2010 and earlier for periods since 1997, it doesn't feel "foreign" in the slightest. It just feels like London. Immigration has helped to make it the most dynamic and successful part of the country, with the strongest economy, the best performing schools and thriving local communities. I wouldn't live anywhere else, and if JD Vance doesn't like it all the better.
    London was around 90% white British in 1971.
    Suprising. I would have thought at least 5% Irish, and that doesn't leave room for much else.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800

    stodge said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The collapse of the Gulf Stream would spell the end for Britain as we know it.
    Probably not though it might not be pleasant for a while. Given the world is warming, it seems reasonable to assume the summers would still be warm and perhaps our climate would be more "continental" in nature - drier and colder in winter, drier and warmer in summer though of course it would still rain.

    We might end up like Labrador or the NE United States - I doubt it would be Greenland though doubtless the Mail would blame Starmer if the glaciers started advancing towards London.
    "The Gulf Stream originates in the Gulf of Mexico and transports warm water across the Atlantic towards north-west Europe. As such, it has a strong warming effect on the region and is the reason why the UK does not experience similarly harsh conditions to places like Canada or Siberia, despite being on a similar latitude."
    https://www.yourweather.co.uk/news/trending/what-will-happen-to-the-uk-if-the-gulf-stream-collapses.html
    Canada copes perfectly well with extremes of temperature - yes, we'd need to adapt and perhaps quickly but it would be possible and certainly wouldn't be some kind of civilisation-ending event. Some Canadian cities have underground shopping areas which people go to and we would need to invest in the kind of winter infrastructure such as exists in Finland and Sweden but again we could...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Has Leon been sharing couches with JD ?

    JD Vance laments the diversity of New York City ahead of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally:

    “London doesn’t feel fully English to me anymore. Right? New York of course is the classic American city. Over time, I think New York will start to feel less American.”

    https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1850580229665755330

    Vance's own wife is the daughter of Indian immigrants so his whole approach to this issue is bizarre.
    London of course has never really been an English city anyway. It predates the arrival of the English and has always been a diverse city as you'd expect from a major port and former administrative centre of a vast multi ethnic empire. It's why it attracts people from all over the world and lets them all feel at home.
    Reading this comment, you would think that London is no more diverse now than it was 50 years ago, but that's clearly not true. It has been transformed demographically.
    London was already a very diverse city in 1974 but yes clearly it is even more so now. I don't know if you live in London like I do but in my experience, living here since 2010 and earlier for periods since 1997, it doesn't feel "foreign" in the slightest. It just feels like London. Immigration has helped to make it the most dynamic and successful part of the country, with the strongest economy, the best performing schools and thriving local communities. I wouldn't live anywhere else, and if JD Vance doesn't like it all the better.
    London was around 90% white British in 1971.
    Suprising. I would have thought at least 5% Irish, and that doesn't leave room for much else.
    Until quite recently, minorities were a really, really…. minor part of the population.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    Nigelb said:

    Has Leon been sharing couches with JD ?

    JD Vance laments the diversity of New York City ahead of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally:

    “London doesn’t feel fully English to me anymore. Right? New York of course is the classic American city. Over time, I think New York will start to feel less American.”

    https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1850580229665755330

    Vance's own wife is the daughter of Indian immigrants so his whole approach to this issue is bizarre.
    London of course has never really been an English city anyway. It predates the arrival of the English and has always been a diverse city as you'd expect from a major port and former administrative centre of a vast multi ethnic empire. It's why it attracts people from all over the world and lets them all feel at home.
    Reading this comment, you would think that London is no more diverse now than it was 50 years ago, but that's clearly not true. It has been transformed demographically.
    London was already a very diverse city in 1974 but yes clearly it is even more so now. I don't know if you live in London like I do but in my experience, living here since 2010 and earlier for periods since 1997, it doesn't feel "foreign" in the slightest. It just feels like London. Immigration has helped to make it the most dynamic and successful part of the country, with the strongest economy, the best performing schools and thriving local communities. I wouldn't live anywhere else, and if JD Vance doesn't like it all the better.
    What you are celebrating is essentially internal migration out of London: Brits out and migrants in. Maybe you benefit from this personally, but it's very much an "I'm all right, Jack" attitude.
    People move in an out of London all the time. My wife and I are both internal migrants into London, while my dad went the other way many decades ago. Our eldest daughter has just left London for university. My next door neighbour still lives in the street he was born in. Other neighbours are immigrants from all over the world. Many like us are non London Brits. Whether I gain from all of this personally or not is neither here nor there. I'm merely pointing out that it seems to work ok.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662
    TimS said:

    HMRC envelopes say

    "Your tax service - here to support"

    on them

    Is that new?

    A few words missing ...

    .. here to support Labour's lunatic spending plans....
    Reeves is threatening spending cuts, and has already restricted the WFA to the chagrin of many. It’s feeling more like austerity than lunatic spending plans.

    I’d rather they did actually spend more so I could live in a less tatty country.
    So what is the 50 billion going on. .. it ain't tax cuts......
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    TimS said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The theories tend to change as the outcomes change. Hard to sell people on consistent warming when everyone's freezing their tits off. So just blame cold, rain, and every other less than optimal weather condition on the same thing and wagons roll.
    More to the point ignore ideologues, regardless of whether they’re XR or contrarians, and listen to what scientific research and data show, and that is a pretty monotonic warming with the chances of some day after tomorrow cooling scenario pretty low. Rainfall and short term events are getting more volatile, not regional or global climate.

    As to your previous characteristically acid response to my ship pollution comment, yes requiring ships to spray another harmless reflective particle would be sensible. Certainly better than letting them emit sulphates again. It’s not primarily seamen getting the lung damage, it’s communities in coastal settlements.
    We're also seeing that there's more variability in the climate, or more things that vary that affect the climate, so that you have a lot of variability on top of the monotonic trend.

    That's why, for example, until recently there was a slight trend to increasing Antarctic sea ice. So, on average it's warming, but there's enough variability that it can be unusually cold.
    The data so far and climate modelling seem to point to reduced variability for the likes of us and greater variability in the tropics.

    Good article here, surprising not paywalled

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27515-x
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited October 28
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    50% increase in fuel duty? ;)

    (I'm half serious. The marginal cost of driving keeps getting relatively cheaper).
    I'll predict he range 6.5% to 10% fuel duty increase in the budget. That's a low increase, but I think it's all we'll get.
    You'll love this: https://x.com/H_H_Gray/status/1850888523777257518

    Incredible intelligence-led sting by cyclist on bike thief. Typical reluctance from the police.
    Harry is great; he's one of the 3 or 4 key people in Walk/Ride GM, and has been known (allegedly) to turn up with tarmac and a bucket & spade when infrastructure is not accessible enough.

    He also used to have one of those General Strike Union Man moustaches. He shaved it off and now looks about 19.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    SKS promised change

    Not sure what the problem is plebs give the bus driver a fiver and gets £2 change
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    edited October 28

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    Another own goal.

    His people, if we can call them that, are far more likely to use buses

    And who thought announcing this three days before the actual Budget was a good comms strategy?

    Much more of this and I will start to think @Leon is correct which would never do.

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662

    Axing £2 bus fare looks already like another massive unforced error by Reeves.

    Her hero is Gordon Brown. She needs to give him a call.

    That's alarming. Brown was appalling as PM. Some people have short memories....
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Great header - sums up the situation very well. Eek.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    SKS promised change

    Not sure what the problem is plebs give the bus driver a fiver and gets £2 change

    @Anabobazina would have a big problem there.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The collapse of the Gulf Stream would spell the end for Britain as we know it.
    Probably not though it might not be pleasant for a while. Given the world is warming, it seems reasonable to assume the summers would still be warm and perhaps our climate would be more "continental" in nature - drier and colder in winter, drier and warmer in summer though of course it would still rain.

    We might end up like Labrador or the NE United States - I doubt it would be Greenland though doubtless the Mail would blame Starmer if the glaciers started advancing towards London.
    "The Gulf Stream originates in the Gulf of Mexico and transports warm water across the Atlantic towards north-west Europe. As such, it has a strong warming effect on the region and is the reason why the UK does not experience similarly harsh conditions to places like Canada or Siberia, despite being on a similar latitude."
    https://www.yourweather.co.uk/news/trending/what-will-happen-to-the-uk-if-the-gulf-stream-collapses.html
    Canada copes perfectly well with extremes of temperature - yes, we'd need to adapt and perhaps quickly but it would be possible and certainly wouldn't be some kind of civilisation-ending event. Some Canadian cities have underground shopping areas which people go to and we would need to invest in the kind of winter infrastructure such as exists in Finland and Sweden but again we could...
    The main problem - as with so much else - would be with housing. There would be a very large increase in demand for home heating as a result of how poorly constructed and insulated most British housing is.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314

    carnforth said:

    The Speaker is not happy with Rachel Reeves:

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1850928321279979664

    I'm not either. I had hoped that we (Labour) would revert to proper protocols and announce stuff to Parliament before briefing the press or making policy announcements in interviews or speeches. But no. It's not just the changes to the fiscal rules, it's the (deliberate?) leaking of budget 'secrets' and stuff like today's bus fare announcement.
    Disappointing.
    Can I just say, good on you for saying this. And I agree.
    Thanks.
    I'm still a raging leftie, though.
    Thanks for remaining so.

    If everyone acknowledges the Great Truth about economics, then we who are Right won’t have anyone to condescend. That would be intolerable.
    I can't imagine you ever running out of people to condescend to, given your huge knowledge of everybody and everything.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    TimS said:

    HMRC envelopes say

    "Your tax service - here to support"

    on them

    Is that new?

    A few words missing ...

    .. here to support Labour's lunatic spending plans....
    Reeves is threatening spending cuts, and has already restricted the WFA to the chagrin of many. It’s feeling more like austerity than lunatic spending plans.

    I’d rather they did actually spend more so I could live in a less tatty country.
    So what is the 50 billion going on. .. it ain't tax cuts......
    It’s going on keeping spending almost stable instead of the (you know, I know) knowingly unrealistic spending cuts Hunt programmed into his post election assumptions so that he could pay for his NI cuts.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    If only someone on PB had predicted that Austerity Reeves was going for Austerity
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    Another own goal.

    His people, if we can call them that, are far more likely to use buses

    And who thought announcing this three days before the actual Budget was a good comms strategy?

    Much more of this and I will start to think @Leon is correct which would never do.

    Significant areas are going to be excluded - London, Birmingham and West Yorkshire to name but three. I'm not saying this is a wholly wise move (not sure how much financially it will save) but it's not going to be a problem for a considerable number of bus users.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    I'd be sad if all blondes with blue eyes, strawberry blondes and gingers died out because, quite frankly - although it won't happen in my lifetime - I find them prettier than brunettes but that is probably the natural end point in c.200 years on current trends. Through the summations of millions of individual choices and intermixing we'll probably all eventually become mixed race, a bit like how the Spanish did and probably look a bit more like them.

    I don't think it necessarily make you a racist if you mourned this, and nor does any one race have more value than another, but I don't share the worries that it will fundamentally change Britain because I think all those people will adopt the values of the prevailing culture, including their heritage and traditions as Eric Kaufmann argues in "Whiteshift". Bit would I miss the blondes? Yes, I would.

    [Having said that, it's not irrevocable either - over tens of thousands of years pigmentation would tend to lighten again because it will have to in order to get enough vitamin D, recognising that evolution will be much much slower in an advanced society where far more people survive. If we decide to actually try to have kids, that is.]

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    SKS promised change

    Not sure what the problem is plebs give the bus driver a fiver and gets £2 change

    Surely the plebs can just get a mate to lend them a limousine for their travel?

    I mean that’s what I do - found the servants to the servants hall were waiting for a bus to their accommodation down by the village. So I got the second assistant butler to use his third and fourth best Rolls Royces to ferry them home. Give him a fee for the job and depreciation, of course. Obviously, he gets a couple of the trainee footmen to do the actual driving.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    edited October 28

    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Has Leon been sharing couches with JD ?

    JD Vance laments the diversity of New York City ahead of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally:

    “London doesn’t feel fully English to me anymore. Right? New York of course is the classic American city. Over time, I think New York will start to feel less American.”

    https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1850580229665755330

    Vance's own wife is the daughter of Indian immigrants so his whole approach to this issue is bizarre.
    London of course has never really been an English city anyway. It predates the arrival of the English and has always been a diverse city as you'd expect from a major port and former administrative centre of a vast multi ethnic empire. It's why it attracts people from all over the world and lets them all feel at home.
    Reading this comment, you would think that London is no more diverse now than it was 50 years ago, but that's clearly not true. It has been transformed demographically.
    London was already a very diverse city in 1974 but yes clearly it is even more so now. I don't know if you live in London like I do but in my experience, living here since 2010 and earlier for periods since 1997, it doesn't feel "foreign" in the slightest. It just feels like London. Immigration has helped to make it the most dynamic and successful part of the country, with the strongest economy, the best performing schools and thriving local communities. I wouldn't live anywhere else, and if JD Vance doesn't like it all the better.
    What you are celebrating is essentially internal migration out of London: Brits out and migrants in. Maybe you benefit from this personally, but it's very much an "I'm all right, Jack" attitude.
    It is hard to understand why people would want London to be a depopulating wasteland, which is what the reality would be if the immigration and economic growth of the last 30 years did not happen. The reality is just that things change over time and with economic and cultural circumstances. A lot of the 'Brits' who have left have made a lot of money out of rising house prices and are actually beneficiaries of immigration.

    Having said that there is a good point that is made by people like Iain Sinclair: a lot of the people who have lived in London for many generations have left over the past few decades, which does change the psychological character of a place, but I suppose this is also true of a lot of places in England (ie rural villages etc).
    That wasn't the alternative. The alternative was balanced internal migration with more young people moving into London, as they have always done, to match the people retiring out to the provinces.

    This process has been suppressed as a result of turning London into a 50% British city and has created one of the biggest dividing lines in our society.
    The biggest dividing line in London is between the enormous assets of homeowners and the ludicrously high rent paid by private-sector tenants.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The theories tend to change as the outcomes change. Hard to sell people on consistent warming when everyone's freezing their tits off. So just blame cold, rain, and every other less than optimal weather condition on the same thing and wagons roll.
    More to the point ignore ideologues, regardless of whether they’re XR or contrarians, and listen to what scientific research and data show, and that is a pretty monotonic warming with the chances of some day after tomorrow cooling scenario pretty low. Rainfall and short term events are getting more volatile, not regional or global climate.

    As to your previous characteristically acid response to my ship pollution comment, yes requiring ships to spray another harmless reflective particle would be sensible. Certainly better than letting them emit sulphates again. It’s not primarily seamen getting the lung damage, it’s communities in coastal settlements.
    We're also seeing that there's more variability in the climate, or more things that vary that affect the climate, so that you have a lot of variability on top of the monotonic trend.

    That's why, for example, until recently there was a slight trend to increasing Antarctic sea ice. So, on average it's warming, but there's enough variability that it can be unusually cold.
    The data so far and climate modelling seem to point to reduced variability for the likes of us and greater variability in the tropics.

    Good article here, surprising not paywalled

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27515-x
    I don't mean more variability over time due to global warming, but more variability than we were aware of, due to the short period of the observational record.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    stodge said:

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    Another own goal.

    His people, if we can call them that, are far more likely to use buses

    And who thought announcing this three days before the actual Budget was a good comms strategy?

    Much more of this and I will start to think @Leon is correct which would never do.

    Significant areas are going to be excluded - London, Birmingham and West Yorkshire to name but three. I'm not saying this is a wholly wise move (not sure how much financially it will save) but it's not going to be a problem for a considerable number of bus users.
    So bus fares outside of where Labour voters live?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278

    If only someone on PB had predicted that Austerity Reeves was going for Austerity

    Tax rise Starmer and Reeves the BBC says


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y5d87zjxdo
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited October 28

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The collapse of the Gulf Stream would spell the end for Britain as we know it.
    Probably not though it might not be pleasant for a while. Given the world is warming, it seems reasonable to assume the summers would still be warm and perhaps our climate would be more "continental" in nature - drier and colder in winter, drier and warmer in summer though of course it would still rain.

    We might end up like Labrador or the NE United States - I doubt it would be Greenland though doubtless the Mail would blame Starmer if the glaciers started advancing towards London.
    "The Gulf Stream originates in the Gulf of Mexico and transports warm water across the Atlantic towards north-west Europe. As such, it has a strong warming effect on the region and is the reason why the UK does not experience similarly harsh conditions to places like Canada or Siberia, despite being on a similar latitude."
    https://www.yourweather.co.uk/news/trending/what-will-happen-to-the-uk-if-the-gulf-stream-collapses.html
    Canada copes perfectly well with extremes of temperature - yes, we'd need to adapt and perhaps quickly but it would be possible and certainly wouldn't be some kind of civilisation-ending event. Some Canadian cities have underground shopping areas which people go to and we would need to invest in the kind of winter infrastructure such as exists in Finland and Sweden but again we could...
    The main problem - as with so much else - would be with housing. There would be a very large increase in demand for home heating as a result of how poorly constructed and insulated most British housing is.
    Perun did Canadian defence procurement yesterday, and used us as a good less worse example - getting our RFA tankers for about 12 times less pro-rata than the Canadians paid.

    'Twas a bit coruscating.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27wWRszlZWU
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    Another own goal.

    His people, if we can call them that, are far more likely to use buses

    And who thought announcing this three days before the actual Budget was a good comms strategy?

    Much more of this and I will start to think @Leon is correct which would never do.
    Why would they announce something like this ahead of the main budget?

    Even if we accept that it's necessary, it comes under the heading of "regrettable, but necessary." So why give it prominence by announcing it in advance?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    Another own goal.

    His people, if we can call them that, are far more likely to use buses

    And who thought announcing this three days before the actual Budget was a good comms strategy?

    Much more of this and I will start to think @Leon is correct which would never do.

    Buses are full of the rich.

    We often hold cocktail parties on the top deck of the H91. Only the best people etc….
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The theories tend to change as the outcomes change. Hard to sell people on consistent warming when everyone's freezing their tits off. So just blame cold, rain, and every other less than optimal weather condition on the same thing and wagons roll.
    More to the point ignore ideologues, regardless of whether they’re XR or contrarians, and listen to what scientific research and data show, and that is a pretty monotonic warming with the chances of some day after tomorrow cooling scenario pretty low. Rainfall and short term events are getting more volatile, not regional or global climate.

    As to your previous characteristically acid response to my ship pollution comment, yes requiring ships to spray another harmless reflective particle would be sensible. Certainly better than letting them emit sulphates again. It’s not primarily seamen getting the lung damage, it’s communities in coastal settlements.
    We're also seeing that there's more variability in the climate, or more things that vary that affect the climate, so that you have a lot of variability on top of the monotonic trend.

    That's why, for example, until recently there was a slight trend to increasing Antarctic sea ice. So, on average it's warming, but there's enough variability that it can be unusually cold.
    The data so far and climate modelling seem to point to reduced variability for the likes of us and greater variability in the tropics.

    Good article here, surprising not paywalled

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27515-x
    I don't mean more variability over time due to global warming, but more variability than we were aware of, due to the short period of the observational record.
    Yes fair point, our proxy data (except ice cores) smooth out interannual variability.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    On the hidden from payslip debate here on PB:



    Tom Harwood
    @tomhfh
    ·
    9h
    If an employer wants to hire someone on £60,000, this in reality costs the firm £68,351.10.

    Hidden from the payslip are employer NICs: £7,030.20 and minimum employer pension contribution: £1,320.90.

    It will be interesting to see how much employment costs rise after the budget.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1850834773075234942

    You can add on IT equipment, office space, electricity heating, lighting, life assurance, private healthcare, central overheadsz sick pay, etc. on top.

    All employers will work on a M-factor they have to multiply anyone's salary by to calculate what that person needs to make "per head" for them to break even within their business model so their employment makes sense.

    I've seen these range from 1.4 to 2.8 depending on overheads and how big the firm is, but no doubt some go higher.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    Another own goal.

    His people, if we can call them that, are far more likely to use buses

    And who thought announcing this three days before the actual Budget was a good comms strategy?

    Much more of this and I will start to think @Leon is correct which would never do.
    Why would they announce something like this ahead of the main budget?

    Even if we accept that it's necessary, it comes under the heading of "regrettable, but necessary." So why give it prominence by announcing it in advance?
    Perhaps for procedural reasons, if it’s under the remit of DfT rather than Treasury?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    HYUFD said:

    If only someone on PB had predicted that Austerity Reeves was going for Austerity

    Tax rise Starmer and Reeves the BBC says


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y5d87zjxdo
    At least he didn't call it sausagerity.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848
    FPT
    Taz said:

    Starmer caves on the pressure over bus fares. Cap to go,to £3.

    He’s really quite poor at this side of things. He really needs some comms management.

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1850868128604893352?s=61

    Well theres a thing...to get to my local large supermarket is two bus journeys..cost 4£ and takes an hour....to get to my local large supermarket by taxi takes 5 minutes is door to door and costs £6.40.....I guess starmer wants me to take that taxi as it will cost me 40p more
    but save 55 minutes extra travel
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    Another own goal.

    His people, if we can call them that, are far more likely to use buses

    And who thought announcing this three days before the actual Budget was a good comms strategy?

    Much more of this and I will start to think @Leon is correct which would never do.
    Why would they announce something like this ahead of the main budget?

    Even if we accept that it's necessary, it comes under the heading of "regrettable, but necessary." So why give it prominence by announcing it in advance?
    Cuz shit as it is, it's the best news they've got?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The theories tend to change as the outcomes change. Hard to sell people on consistent warming when everyone's freezing their tits off. So just blame cold, rain, and every other less than optimal weather condition on the same thing and wagons roll.
    More to the point ignore ideologues, regardless of whether they’re XR or contrarians, and listen to what scientific research and data show, and that is a pretty monotonic warming with the chances of some day after tomorrow cooling scenario pretty low. Rainfall and short term events are getting more volatile, not regional or global climate.

    As to your previous characteristically acid response to my ship pollution comment, yes requiring ships to spray another harmless reflective particle would be sensible. Certainly better than letting them emit sulphates again. It’s not primarily seamen getting the lung damage, it’s communities in coastal settlements.
    We're also seeing that there's more variability in the climate, or more things that vary that affect the climate, so that you have a lot of variability on top of the monotonic trend.

    That's why, for example, until recently there was a slight trend to increasing Antarctic sea ice. So, on average it's warming, but there's enough variability that it can be unusually cold.
    The data so far and climate modelling seem to point to reduced variability for the likes of us and greater variability in the tropics.

    Good article here, surprising not paywalled

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27515-x
    I don't mean more variability over time due to global warming, but more variability than we were aware of, due to the short period of the observational record.
    Yes fair point, our proxy data (except ice cores) smooth out interannual variability.
    There were a lot of earnest papers written about the trend in the NAO index in the late-90s, and what the mechanism might be that connected it to global warming, and why it was that the models didn't reproduce it - and then the hens went into reverse, because it was internal variability.

    Humans are overtuned to identify patterns, and often overdo it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    On the hidden from payslip debate here on PB:



    Tom Harwood
    @tomhfh
    ·
    9h
    If an employer wants to hire someone on £60,000, this in reality costs the firm £68,351.10.

    Hidden from the payslip are employer NICs: £7,030.20 and minimum employer pension contribution: £1,320.90.

    It will be interesting to see how much employment costs rise after the budget.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1850834773075234942

    You can add on IT equipment, office space, electricity heating, lighting, life assurance, private healthcare, central overheadsz sick pay, etc. on top.

    All employers will work on a M-factor they have to multiply anyone's salary by to calculate what that person needs to make "per head" for them to break even within their business model so their employment makes sense.

    I've seen these range from 1.4 to 2.8 depending on overheads and how big the firm is, but no doubt some go higher.
    For office based, desk oriented white collar, 2 seems to be quite common.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    TimS said:

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    Another own goal.

    His people, if we can call them that, are far more likely to use buses

    And who thought announcing this three days before the actual Budget was a good comms strategy?

    Much more of this and I will start to think @Leon is correct which would never do.
    Why would they announce something like this ahead of the main budget?

    Even if we accept that it's necessary, it comes under the heading of "regrettable, but necessary." So why give it prominence by announcing it in advance?
    Perhaps for procedural reasons, if it’s under the remit of DfT rather than Treasury?
    The one good thing here, is the thought of Alistair Campbell beating his head against a wall.

    This is exactly why he and the rest of the New Labour press operation were so obsessive about messaging grids and packaging releases of information.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Has Leon been sharing couches with JD ?

    JD Vance laments the diversity of New York City ahead of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally:

    “London doesn’t feel fully English to me anymore. Right? New York of course is the classic American city. Over time, I think New York will start to feel less American.”

    https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1850580229665755330

    Vance's own wife is the daughter of Indian immigrants so his whole approach to this issue is bizarre.
    London of course has never really been an English city anyway. It predates the arrival of the English and has always been a diverse city as you'd expect from a major port and former administrative centre of a vast multi ethnic empire. It's why it attracts people from all over the world and lets them all feel at home.
    Rarely read such utter nonsense. 87% white British in 1971, now 36.8%. In the preceding two thousands years it was almost always 90% plus white British. Take a look at any census.
    British? Two thousand years ago? The folk who spoke what we call Welsh. Not the Romans. Or the Saxons. Or the Danes. Or the Normans. Not many Welsh (the true British) left now in London.
    The Welsh are newcomers, bringing an indo-european language to these islands as the celts swept in. The reasonable presumption is that their lingo displaced a language which would have been a fairly near relation of whatever Basque then sounded like - the non indo-european language isolate still present in a chunk of Spain and France.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    FPT: Recently, I have been thinking, more and more, that we should be preparing for the possibility of global cooling. Why? Because of what I have read of the effects of volcanos, for example, Stommel and Stommel's "Volcano Weather": https://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714

    We will have a volcanic eruption that cools the earth, some time in the future. Perhaps not again in my life time, but very likely in the next hundred years, and nearly certain in the next thousand.

    If there is a way to predict such an event, long enough in advance to be useful, I am not aware of it. (We certainly should be looking for a way, or ways.)

    I went to an Oxford Uni event yesterday where one of the speakers was an XR (Extinction Rebellion) founder, Rupert Read. He said that current thinking was that the climate in the UK was being made more unstable by failure to curb persistent emissions - perhaps irreversibly so, though he held out some hope of change - and could involve swings to more extreme cold as well as heat. The possible collapse of the Gulf Stream would be a relevant cause.

    I didn't find him altogether persuasive, but it was distinctively different from the "world is simply getting hotter" thesis.
    The collapse of the Gulf Stream would spell the end for Britain as we know it.
    Probably not though it might not be pleasant for a while. Given the world is warming, it seems reasonable to assume the summers would still be warm and perhaps our climate would be more "continental" in nature - drier and colder in winter, drier and warmer in summer though of course it would still rain.

    We might end up like Labrador or the NE United States - I doubt it would be Greenland though doubtless the Mail would blame Starmer if the glaciers started advancing towards London.
    "The Gulf Stream originates in the Gulf of Mexico and transports warm water across the Atlantic towards north-west Europe. As such, it has a strong warming effect on the region and is the reason why the UK does not experience similarly harsh conditions to places like Canada or Siberia, despite being on a similar latitude."
    https://www.yourweather.co.uk/news/trending/what-will-happen-to-the-uk-if-the-gulf-stream-collapses.html
    Canada copes perfectly well with extremes of temperature - yes, we'd need to adapt and perhaps quickly but it would be possible and certainly wouldn't be some kind of civilisation-ending event. Some Canadian cities have underground shopping areas which people go to and we would need to invest in the kind of winter infrastructure such as exists in Finland and Sweden but again we could...
    The main problem - as with so much else - would be with housing. There would be a very large increase in demand for home heating as a result of how poorly constructed and insulated most British housing is.
    Perun did Canadian defence procurement yesterday, and used us as a good less worse example - getting our RFA tankers for about 12 times less pro-rata than the Canadians paid.

    'Twas a bit coruscating.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27wWRszlZWU
    There is a theory that the UK MoD pays the Canadians to do defence procurement worse than the UK. So they have someone to look down on.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    50% increase in fuel duty? ;)

    (I'm half serious. The marginal cost of driving keeps getting relatively cheaper).
    I'll predict he range 6.5% to 10% fuel duty increase in the budget. That's a low increase, but I think it's all we'll get.
    You'll love this: https://x.com/H_H_Gray/status/1850888523777257518

    Incredible intelligence-led sting by cyclist on bike thief. Typical reluctance from the police.
    I read this earlier. Very impressive and resourceful. But you have to wonder about the Police and their whole attitude. It seems any forces treat bike theft as a minor inconvenience.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    I met two "Your Excellencies" today.

    Spoke to two more on the phone.

    Business activity levels here are off the scale.

    Will let you know what dinner at their palaces is like...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    HYUFD said:

    If only someone on PB had predicted that Austerity Reeves was going for Austerity

    Tax rise Starmer and Reeves the BBC says


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y5d87zjxdo
    Better days are ahead says SKS (Sausages tomorrow)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    HYUFD said:

    If only someone on PB had predicted that Austerity Reeves was going for Austerity

    Tax rise Starmer and Reeves the BBC says


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y5d87zjxdo
    Better days are ahead says SKS (Sausages tomorrow)
    No no.

    Better sausages are ahead, says SKS.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    edited October 28
    Even Starmer’s speech venue had a dark, oppressive, miserable maroon backdrop. Doubtless they think it made him look dutiful and sensible, but it just added to the vibe of him being a charmless misery.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    Pagan2 said:

    FPT

    Taz said:

    Starmer caves on the pressure over bus fares. Cap to go,to £3.

    He’s really quite poor at this side of things. He really needs some comms management.

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1850868128604893352?s=61

    Well theres a thing...to get to my local large supermarket is two bus journeys..cost 4£ and takes an hour....to get to my local large supermarket by taxi takes 5 minutes is door to door and costs £6.40.....I guess starmer wants me to take that taxi as it will cost me 40p more
    but save 55 minutes extra travel
    And because you won't take the bus, it will not represent a 50% increase in inflation to you.

    Others, however...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 28
    That incident with Mike Amesbury MP looks really quite serious on the CCTV the Mail is showing on it's website right now.

    Of course we don't know what the fella is saying to the MP but it looks like a pretty much unprovoked assault?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    50% increase in fuel duty? ;)

    (I'm half serious. The marginal cost of driving keeps getting relatively cheaper).
    I'll predict he range 6.5% to 10% fuel duty increase in the budget. That's a low increase, but I think it's all we'll get.
    You'll love this: https://x.com/H_H_Gray/status/1850888523777257518

    Incredible intelligence-led sting by cyclist on bike thief. Typical reluctance from the police.
    I read this earlier. Very impressive and resourceful. But you have to wonder about the Police and their whole attitude. It seems any forces treat bike theft as a minor inconvenience.
    They do. Cyclists, phone and laptop owners who have tracking data of their stolen possessions are treated as major inconveniences.

    A friend had her bike stolen. The bike was lo-jacked in about seven different ways. Not going reveal all of them - some were her custom ideas (works in IT). Sufice it to say, location was just the first thing.

    When she reported this to the police, she showed them what she had on her laptop on the bike. And got told that having that much information on the thieves was dodgy!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Labour’s Fare Betrayal: SKS "Takes £520 a Year Out of the Pockets of Workers Travelling by Bus"

    Although he could neither define a worker or recall what a bus is.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited October 28
    GIN1138 said:

    That incident with Mike Amesbury MP looks really quite serious on the CCTV the Mail is showing on it's website right now.

    Of course we don't know what the victim is saying to the MP but it looks like a pretty much unprovoked assault?

    Personally, having seen how some MPs are treated, I think they should have a bag limit of three members of the public, per year.

    With artistic points for style -

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h09ydGGsh28
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    I'd be sad if all blondes with blue eyes, strawberry blondes and gingers died out because, quite frankly - although it won't happen in my lifetime - I find them prettier than brunettes but that is probably the natural end point in c.200 years on current trends. Through the summations of millions of individual choices and intermixing we'll probably all eventually become mixed race, a bit like how the Spanish did and probably look a bit more like them.

    I don't think it necessarily make you a racist if you mourned this, and nor does any one race have more value than another, but I don't share the worries that it will fundamentally change Britain because I think all those people will adopt the values of the prevailing culture, including their heritage and traditions as Eric Kaufmann argues in "Whiteshift". Bit would I miss the blondes? Yes, I would.

    [Having said that, it's not irrevocable either - over tens of thousands of years pigmentation would tend to lighten again because it will have to in order to get enough vitamin D, recognising that evolution will be much much slower in an advanced society where far more people survive. If we decide to actually try to have kids, that is.]

    I've never really been into blondes, perhaps this explains my attitude towards immigration.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    Labour’s Fare Betrayal: SKS "Takes £520 a Year Out of the Pockets of Workers Travelling by Bus"

    Although he could neither define a worker or recall what a bus is.

    Did we ever see one of Boris's bus paintings or was he fibbing about that too?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    GIN1138 said:

    That incident with Mike Amesbury MP looks really quite serious on the CCTV the Mail is showing on it's website right now.

    Of course we don't know what the fella is saying to the MP but it looks like a pretty much unprovoked assault?

    Even if the assault were well and truly 'provoked', he carried on hitting and kicking the guy when he was on the floor. That's not dealing with a 'threat' it's thuggery.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    .

    I'd be sad if all blondes with blue eyes, strawberry blondes and gingers died out because, quite frankly - although it won't happen in my lifetime - I find them prettier than brunettes but that is probably the natural end point in c.200 years on current trends. Through the summations of millions of individual choices and intermixing we'll probably all eventually become mixed race, a bit like how the Spanish did and probably look a bit more like them.

    I don't think it necessarily make you a racist if you mourned this, and nor does any one race have more value than another, but I don't share the worries that it will fundamentally change Britain because I think all those people will adopt the values of the prevailing culture, including their heritage and traditions as Eric Kaufmann argues in "Whiteshift". Bit would I miss the blondes? Yes, I would.

    [Having said that, it's not irrevocable either - over tens of thousands of years pigmentation would tend to lighten again because it will have to in order to get enough vitamin D, recognising that evolution will be much much slower in an advanced society where far more people survive. If we decide to actually try to have kids, that is.]

    I've never really been into blondes, perhaps this explains my attitude towards immigration.
    Well, I have one: my wife.

    Not sure she's that keen in me being into others.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    GIN1138 said:

    That incident with Mike Amesbury MP looks really quite serious on the CCTV the Mail is showing on it's website right now.

    Of course we don't know what the fella is saying to the MP but it looks like a pretty much unprovoked assault?

    Still walking free...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    SKS promised change

    Not sure what the problem is plebs give the bus driver a fiver and gets £2 change

    @Anabobazina would have a big problem there.
    I’d be fine. The big problem would be the cash fetishists when they realise that London buses (and indeed several other bus networks) have been cashless for years. Oh!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    Another own goal.

    His people, if we can call them that, are far more likely to use buses

    And who thought announcing this three days before the actual Budget was a good comms strategy?

    Much more of this and I will start to think @Leon is correct which would never do.

    Buses are full of the rich.

    We often hold cocktail parties on the top deck of the H91. Only the best people etc….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLU-RuXC9Ls
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    I'd be sad if all blondes with blue eyes, strawberry blondes and gingers died out because, quite frankly - although it won't happen in my lifetime - I find them prettier than brunettes but that is probably the natural end point in c.200 years on current trends. Through the summations of millions of individual choices and intermixing we'll probably all eventually become mixed race, a bit like how the Spanish did and probably look a bit more like them.

    I don't think it necessarily make you a racist if you mourned this, and nor does any one race have more value than another, but I don't share the worries that it will fundamentally change Britain because I think all those people will adopt the values of the prevailing culture, including their heritage and traditions as Eric Kaufmann argues in "Whiteshift". Bit would I miss the blondes? Yes, I would.

    [Having said that, it's not irrevocable either - over tens of thousands of years pigmentation would tend to lighten again because it will have to in order to get enough vitamin D, recognising that evolution will be much much slower in an advanced society where far more people survive. If we decide to actually try to have kids, that is.]

    I've never really been into blondes, perhaps this explains my attitude towards immigration.
    Racist!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    .

    I'd be sad if all blondes with blue eyes, strawberry blondes and gingers died out because, quite frankly - although it won't happen in my lifetime - I find them prettier than brunettes but that is probably the natural end point in c.200 years on current trends. Through the summations of millions of individual choices and intermixing we'll probably all eventually become mixed race, a bit like how the Spanish did and probably look a bit more like them.

    I don't think it necessarily make you a racist if you mourned this, and nor does any one race have more value than another, but I don't share the worries that it will fundamentally change Britain because I think all those people will adopt the values of the prevailing culture, including their heritage and traditions as Eric Kaufmann argues in "Whiteshift". Bit would I miss the blondes? Yes, I would.

    [Having said that, it's not irrevocable either - over tens of thousands of years pigmentation would tend to lighten again because it will have to in order to get enough vitamin D, recognising that evolution will be much much slower in an advanced society where far more people survive. If we decide to actually try to have kids, that is.]

    I've never really been into blondes, perhaps this explains my attitude towards immigration.
    Well, I have one: my wife.

    Not sure she's that keen in me being into others.
    I guess it would be "racist" of me to also fess up to finding blondes and redheads prettier (on average) than brunettes.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    50% increase in fuel duty? ;)

    (I'm half serious. The marginal cost of driving keeps getting relatively cheaper).
    I'll predict he range 6.5% to 10% fuel duty increase in the budget. That's a low increase, but I think it's all we'll get.
    You'll love this: https://x.com/H_H_Gray/status/1850888523777257518

    Incredible intelligence-led sting by cyclist on bike thief. Typical reluctance from the police.
    I read this earlier. Very impressive and resourceful. But you have to wonder about the Police and their whole attitude. It seems any forces treat bike theft as a minor inconvenience.
    The police seem to treat most things as a minor incovenience these days

    House burgaled....have a crime number
    Car broken into.... have a crime number
    Car stolen....have a crime number
    Misgendering someone on twitter...there will be 6 of us round right now
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,598

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    50% increase in fuel duty? ;)

    (I'm half serious. The marginal cost of driving keeps getting relatively cheaper).
    I'll predict he range 6.5% to 10% fuel duty increase in the budget. That's a low increase, but I think it's all we'll get.
    You'll love this: https://x.com/H_H_Gray/status/1850888523777257518

    Incredible intelligence-led sting by cyclist on bike thief. Typical reluctance from the police.
    I read this earlier. Very impressive and resourceful. But you have to wonder about the Police and their whole attitude. It seems any forces treat bike theft as a minor inconvenience.
    They do. Cyclists, phone and laptop owners who have tracking data of their stolen possessions are treated as major inconveniences.

    A friend had her bike stolen. The bike was lo-jacked in about seven different ways. Not going reveal all of them - some were her custom ideas (works in IT). Sufice it to say, location was just the first thing.

    When she reported this to the police, she showed them what she had on her laptop on the bike. And got told that having that much information on the thieves was dodgy!
    Be quite funny to turn it into a haunted bike that does naughty things to wifi...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump does win it looks like he will win the popular vote and the GOP will win Congress too (even if the Democrats narrow the margin in the Senate).

    That would make it the biggest GOP win in a national US election since Bush was re elected in 2004. Harris is basically a female and black John Kerry so fits that narrative.

    It remains close though and Trump is just 1% ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania in new Insider Advantage polls.
    https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-michigan-survey-trump-leads-by-one-point-slotkin-and-rogers-tied-in-u-s-senate-race/

    On average 538 has Harris ahead by 0.4% in Michigan, by 0.1% in Wisconsin and Trump by 0.3% in Pennsylvania (which has an above average number of Puerto Ricans who might react badly to the comedian's insults yesterday to their ancestral homeland).

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/


    Trump leads by 1.8% in Arizona and 1.5% in Georgia and 1.3% in NC now which look solid for him albeit by a mere 0.2% in Nevada


    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

    Here is Ron Brownstein of CNN with stacks of data and good sense. He reckons that Kamala's best route is Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (270/268) without the sunbelt. He gives cogent demographic reasons why it's a good bet for her - though not certain. Worth a watch from 28:49.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIm5SplyGGc

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848

    Pagan2 said:

    FPT

    Taz said:

    Starmer caves on the pressure over bus fares. Cap to go,to £3.

    He’s really quite poor at this side of things. He really needs some comms management.

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1850868128604893352?s=61

    Well theres a thing...to get to my local large supermarket is two bus journeys..cost 4£ and takes an hour....to get to my local large supermarket by taxi takes 5 minutes is door to door and costs £6.40.....I guess starmer wants me to take that taxi as it will cost me 40p more
    but save 55 minutes extra travel
    And because you won't take the bus, it will not represent a 50% increase in inflation to you.

    Others, however...
    That wasn't precisely the point I was making more that instead it would cut my weekly bus journeys by half making it less sustainable to run the service and that I would replace it with a more co2 expensive journey in a time where they worry about global warming and co2 expression into the atmosphere
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    "Tommy Robinson: Where do you stand?
    Matt Goodwin"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeyayUkNR5M
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 654

    Labour’s Fare Betrayal: SKS "Takes £520 a Year Out of the Pockets of Workers Travelling by Bus"

    Although he could neither define a worker or recall what a bus is.

    I'm slightly relieved that a cap is remaining at all as my bus fare to Bedford (about 14 miles away) used to cost about £15 return.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359

    Labour’s Fare Betrayal: SKS "Takes £520 a Year Out of the Pockets of Workers Travelling by Bus"

    Although he could neither define a worker or recall what a bus is.

    The bus travellers will have got off lightly when Reeves reveals fuel duties...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    FPT

    Taz said:

    Starmer caves on the pressure over bus fares. Cap to go,to £3.

    He’s really quite poor at this side of things. He really needs some comms management.

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/1850868128604893352?s=61

    Well theres a thing...to get to my local large supermarket is two bus journeys..cost 4£ and takes an hour....to get to my local large supermarket by taxi takes 5 minutes is door to door and costs £6.40.....I guess starmer wants me to take that taxi as it will cost me 40p more
    but save 55 minutes extra travel
    And because you won't take the bus, it will not represent a 50% increase in inflation to you.

    Others, however...
    That wasn't precisely the point I was making more that instead it would cut my weekly bus journeys by half making it less sustainable to run the service and that I would replace it with a more co2 expensive journey in a time where they worry about global warming and co2 expression into the atmosphere
    It was, though, a short-term project which the previous government had only funded until the end of December.

    Some sort of bus fare subsidy is probably a good thing- though a model where most of the benefit goes to super-long leisure journeys (Bedford to Oxford or Leeds to Scarborough) could do with some fine-tuning.

    But when (non-investment) government spending exceeded income by about £700 per person last year, some pretty shitty decisions have to be taken. And the person revealing the shit isn't the one who produced it.

    We ain't seen nothing yet. And whilst the ornamentation might have been different had Claire Couthino been doing the Autumn budget, the big picture would have been similar.
  • I'd be sad if all blondes with blue eyes, strawberry blondes and gingers died out because, quite frankly - although it won't happen in my lifetime - I find them prettier than brunettes but that is probably the natural end point in c.200 years on current trends. Through the summations of millions of individual choices and intermixing we'll probably all eventually become mixed race, a bit like how the Spanish did and probably look a bit more like them.

    I don't think it necessarily make you a racist if you mourned this, and nor does any one race have more value than another, but I don't share the worries that it will fundamentally change Britain because I think all those people will adopt the values of the prevailing culture, including their heritage and traditions as Eric Kaufmann argues in "Whiteshift". Bit would I miss the blondes? Yes, I would.

    [Having said that, it's not irrevocable either - over tens of thousands of years pigmentation would tend to lighten again because it will have to in order to get enough vitamin D, recognising that evolution will be much much slower in an advanced society where far more people survive. If we decide to actually try to have kids, that is.]

    I've never really been into blondes, perhaps this explains my attitude towards immigration.
    My weakness has always been redheads, my first love was a redhead, I married a redhead.

    That said, I love any kind of head when it comes to women.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Axing £2 bus fare looks already like another massive unforced error by Reeves.

    Her hero is Gordon Brown. She needs to give him a call.

    He of the 10p tax disaster? If anything she's following the Brown playbook a little too well.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,194

    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Has Leon been sharing couches with JD ?

    JD Vance laments the diversity of New York City ahead of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally:

    “London doesn’t feel fully English to me anymore. Right? New York of course is the classic American city. Over time, I think New York will start to feel less American.”

    https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1850580229665755330

    Vance's own wife is the daughter of Indian immigrants so his whole approach to this issue is bizarre.
    London of course has never really been an English city anyway. It predates the arrival of the English and has always been a diverse city as you'd expect from a major port and former administrative centre of a vast multi ethnic empire. It's why it attracts people from all over the world and lets them all feel at home.
    Reading this comment, you would think that London is no more diverse now than it was 50 years ago, but that's clearly not true. It has been transformed demographically.
    London was already a very diverse city in 1974 but yes clearly it is even more so now. I don't know if you live in London like I do but in my experience, living here since 2010 and earlier for periods since 1997, it doesn't feel "foreign" in the slightest. It just feels like London. Immigration has helped to make it the most dynamic and successful part of the country, with the strongest economy, the best performing schools and thriving local communities. I wouldn't live anywhere else, and if JD Vance doesn't like it all the better.
    What you are celebrating is essentially internal migration out of London: Brits out and migrants in. Maybe you benefit from this personally, but it's very much an "I'm all right, Jack" attitude.
    It is hard to understand why people would want London to be a depopulating wasteland, which is what the reality would be if the immigration and economic growth of the last 30 years did not happen. The reality is just that things change over time and with economic and cultural circumstances. A lot of the 'Brits' who have left have made a lot of money out of rising house prices and are actually beneficiaries of immigration.

    Having said that there is a good point that is made by people like Iain Sinclair: a lot of the people who have lived in London for many generations have left over the past few decades, which does change the psychological character of a place, but I suppose this is also true of a lot of places in England (ie rural villages etc).
    I don't think it's unusual in life for things to be in tension: we all weigh up decisions about jobs that might make us more money, for example, but at the cost of our family life. The same can apply for decisions at a national level.

    I don't think it makes people hypocrites or ignorant because they don't fully go one way or another in all things.

    Who does?
    And also, we often have concurrent incompatible preferences, such as: I want London to be thriving economically; I don't want to live there with children; I don't want to see too many black and brown people when I get off the train on a visit to watch a West End show.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Number of Labour votes in London at the last 3 general elections

    2024: 1.4 million
    2019: 1.8 million
    2017: 2.1 million
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Has Leon been sharing couches with JD ?

    JD Vance laments the diversity of New York City ahead of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally:

    “London doesn’t feel fully English to me anymore. Right? New York of course is the classic American city. Over time, I think New York will start to feel less American.”

    https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1850580229665755330

    Vance's own wife is the daughter of Indian immigrants so his whole approach to this issue is bizarre.
    London of course has never really been an English city anyway. It predates the arrival of the English and has always been a diverse city as you'd expect from a major port and former administrative centre of a vast multi ethnic empire. It's why it attracts people from all over the world and lets them all feel at home.
    Reading this comment, you would think that London is no more diverse now than it was 50 years ago, but that's clearly not true. It has been transformed demographically.
    London was already a very diverse city in 1974 but yes clearly it is even more so now. I don't know if you live in London like I do but in my experience, living here since 2010 and earlier for periods since 1997, it doesn't feel "foreign" in the slightest. It just feels like London. Immigration has helped to make it the most dynamic and successful part of the country, with the strongest economy, the best performing schools and thriving local communities. I wouldn't live anywhere else, and if JD Vance doesn't like it all the better.
    What you are celebrating is essentially internal migration out of London: Brits out and migrants in. Maybe you benefit from this personally, but it's very much an "I'm all right, Jack" attitude.
    It is hard to understand why people would want London to be a depopulating wasteland, which is what the reality would be if the immigration and economic growth of the last 30 years did not happen. The reality is just that things change over time and with economic and cultural circumstances. A lot of the 'Brits' who have left have made a lot of money out of rising house prices and are actually beneficiaries of immigration.

    Having said that there is a good point that is made by people like Iain Sinclair: a lot of the people who have lived in London for many generations have left over the past few decades, which does change the psychological character of a place, but I suppose this is also true of a lot of places in England (ie rural villages etc).
    Not true. Policies could have been in place to encourage the people already living there to have more children for example, as has been the case in France.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Looks like Google have been rather naughty, suppressing the Rogan interview from YouTube’s search function. If not cock up and deliberate, a silly move as it just plays into the Trump narrative.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Andy_JS said:

    "Tommy Robinson: Where do you stand?
    Matt Goodwin"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeyayUkNR5M

    You have Goodwinned the thread AGAIN.
  • Sarah Everard: Met officers ‘viewed x-rays to satisfy curiosity’

    Four serving and three former officers face disciplinary charges over claims that they looked at confidential information about the murdered Londoner


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/sarah-everard-met-police-x-rays-r6mrlr3bl
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    So under the plans of the last government, there would be no cap on bus fares in 2025.

    Labour has brought in a £3 cap for 2025.

    And this is apparently a bad thing.

    Loads of folk who never catch a bus manning the barricades.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Israel has passed two laws banning the UN's Palestinian refugee agency (Unrwa) from operating in Israel, and in occupied areas under its control, by large majorities.

    A number of countries, including the US the UK and Germany, have expressed serious concern about the move.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    "The dangerous martyrdom of Tommy Robinson
    Progressive activists should be careful what they wish for
    Simon Cottee"

    https://unherd.com/2024/10/the-dangerous-martyrdom-of-tommy-robinson/
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    TimS said:

    HMRC envelopes say

    "Your tax service - here to support"

    on them

    Is that new?

    A few words missing ...

    .. here to support Labour's lunatic spending plans....
    Reeves is threatening spending cuts, and has already restricted the WFA to the chagrin of many. It’s feeling more like austerity than lunatic spending plans.

    I’d rather they did actually spend more so I could live in a less tatty country.
    Hmmh… and yet you spend your days “optimising” your clients’ tax bills…
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    As 007 said, as long as the collar and cuffs match.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    So the Trump campaign was fine with the rest of the set.

    The shock comic who opened for Trump at MSG was planning to call Harris a "c*nt" in his set. It got flagged by the campaign.
    https://x.com/samstein/status/1850985272256966820

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    So under the plans of the last government, there would be no cap on bus fares in 2025.

    Labour has brought in a £3 cap for 2025.

    And this is apparently a bad thing.

    Loads of folk who never catch a bus manning the barricades.

    I catch buses used to be £5.50 for a day ticket

    Then Labour mayors persuaded the Tories to introduce a maximum £2 single so £5.50 became £4

    Now SKS has made the political choice to impose a 50% increase

    I have a free bus pass now but its not the point.

    Working people expected to find an extra £520 a year to get to work is definitely a bad thing

    Only warped Centrist logic would conclude otherwise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    50% increase in buss fairs

    Next?

    SKS briefing some bus passengers are millionaires and we ought to be means testing passengers.

    50% increase in fuel duty? ;)

    (I'm half serious. The marginal cost of driving keeps getting relatively cheaper).
    I'll predict he range 6.5% to 10% fuel duty increase in the budget. That's a low increase, but I think it's all we'll get.
    You'll love this: https://x.com/H_H_Gray/status/1850888523777257518

    Incredible intelligence-led sting by cyclist on bike thief. Typical reluctance from the police.
    I read this earlier. Very impressive and resourceful. But you have to wonder about the Police and their whole attitude. It seems any forces treat bike theft as a minor inconvenience.
    Nothing new there. I remember having a valuable camera stolen in a burglary in 1991, I checked the secondhand camera shops in town, and one of them had it. It had been brought in by the thief and they were checking the electronics and had his details. I notified the police. A few days later the camera was returned, but the police never prosecuted him nor found and returned the other things stolen.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Andy_JS said:

    Number of Labour votes in London at the last 3 general elections

    2024: 1.4 million
    2019: 1.8 million
    2017: 2.1 million

    Number of Conservative votes in London at the last 3 general elections:

    2024: 685,082
    2019: 1,205,127
    2017: 1,268,800
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    #New General election poll - Nebraska 02

    🔵 Harris 54% (+12)
    🔴 Trump 42%

    Siena #A - LV - 10/26
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1850866044212011194
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Number of Labour votes in London at the last 3 general elections

    2024: 1.4 million
    2019: 1.8 million
    2017: 2.1 million

    Number of Conservative votes in London at the last 3 general elections:

    2024: 685,082
    2019: 1,205,127
    2017: 1,268,800
    The Tories haven't won London at a general election since 1992 but they have won 4 general elections since then.

    The Conservatives don't need to win most seats in London anymore than Labour need to win most seats in rural areas. If either do it is an absolute landslide anyway
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